美国经济周期中宏观经济政策的责任
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摘要
战后发达资本主义国家都致力于经济的恢复和发展。欧洲国家凭借雄厚的经济基础,借助于美国全球战略扩张,经济很快出现了战前的繁荣景象,但是此后的经济增长速度一直徘徊在3%-4%左右,进入90年代,甚至出现经济的负增长,失业和通货膨胀并存的局面,困扰着欧盟诸国;以日本为代表的亚洲国家,在雁阵模式下经济高速发展,日本在战后甚至出现了GDP增长20%的奇迹,但是80年代以来,房地产泡沫引发的银行信贷危机,使日本经济一蹶不振,直到现在还处于经济停滞的泥潭。而美国经济却一支独秀,战后至今,虽然经历了几次衰退,但衰退的时间非常短,即使在最严重的石油危机期间,美国也只是出现了23个月的衰退,而相反经济的稳定性和繁荣性增强,因而研究美国经济周期的特点及宏观经济政策的责任就具有很重要的意义。
在实际经济周期理论框架下,检验美国经济周期波动的因素以及宏观经济政策责任的落脚点。在美国5个长波周期和战后10个短波周期中,技术依然是美国经济波动的根源,而战后美国宏观经济政策的责任也是致力于保持政策的时间一致性。美国的经济政策符合最优化的发展方向,财政政策由单纯的需求管理向供应管理过渡,紧紧围绕着如何推动技术的进步和产业结构的升级,提升财政政策的质量;货币政策由逆周期的权衡政策逐渐向单一货币规则过渡,通过不断强化央行的独立性,使货币政策的执行更加透明和稳定。而政府问责制和机构弹性制很好的约束政府的理性与自律性,使得预先制定的最优政策能够避免道德风险的制约,得到很好的执行。战后美国政局稳定,政府的声誉不断提高,公众对政府日益强化的信任,使得政府的承诺可信性提升。因而美国经济周期波动的特点能够很好的用实际经济周期理论解释,而经济政策责任的落脚点也符合实际经济周期理论的政策主张。
After world warⅡ, all the developed countries were focusing on restoring and developing economy. Based on reliable economic basis and with the help of the America , European countries returned to prosperous picture before the war quickly ,but later ,the GDP was packing back and forth between 3% and 4%,especially in 90’s , the GDP increase begin to appear negative growth , unemployment and deflation make policy authority puzzled. Taking Japan as representative, Asian countries were developing fast enough under the formation of wild geese in flight patter. The miracle of GDP increase up to 20% even appeared in Japan. Unfortunately, Real estate froth of 80’s caused the crises of bank credit, after that, Japan was in depression till now. The American economy was remarkable, though several short recessions. Even in Petroleum crisis, only 23 months recession appeared.
Based on the real business cycle, the paper analysis the initial strength of business cycle. technology is the root of economic undulation, and point out the responsibility of macroeconomic policy—time consistency of policy. In order to realize the time consistency of policy, the formulation the optimal policy is the foundation, government rationality is the Safeguard, the key problem lies on the system arrangement of government commitment.
After point out General theory frame, exam the factor that causes the undulation of America economy. Through the analysis the 5 long wave business cycle, and 10 short wave business cycle , the paper draws the conclusion that technology was the basic reason of America economic undulation, and the responsibility of macroeconomic policy was always keep the policy of time consistency. American fiscal policy focused on how to improve the process of technology, and through Strengthening Independence of central bank ,monetary policy become more and more transparent and stable; Establishment of the system of government accountability and flexible organization improve rationality and automatic rhythmicity of government; After world warⅡ, the stability political situation , promotion of government prestige and trust of the
在实际经济周期理论框架下,检验美国经济周期波动的因素以及宏观经济政策责任的落脚点。在美国5个长波周期和战后10个短波周期中,技术依然是美国经济波动的根源,而战后美国宏观经济政策的责任也是致力于保持政策的时间一致性。美国的经济政策符合最优化的发展方向,财政政策由单纯的需求管理向供应管理过渡,紧紧围绕着如何推动技术的进步和产业结构的升级,提升财政政策的质量;货币政策由逆周期的权衡政策逐渐向单一货币规则过渡,通过不断强化央行的独立性,使货币政策的执行更加透明和稳定。而政府问责制和机构弹性制很好的约束政府的理性与自律性,使得预先制定的最优政策能够避免道德风险的制约,得到很好的执行。战后美国政局稳定,政府的声誉不断提高,公众对政府日益强化的信任,使得政府的承诺可信性提升。因而美国经济周期波动的特点能够很好的用实际经济周期理论解释,而经济政策责任的落脚点也符合实际经济周期理论的政策主张。
After world warⅡ, all the developed countries were focusing on restoring and developing economy. Based on reliable economic basis and with the help of the America , European countries returned to prosperous picture before the war quickly ,but later ,the GDP was packing back and forth between 3% and 4%,especially in 90’s , the GDP increase begin to appear negative growth , unemployment and deflation make policy authority puzzled. Taking Japan as representative, Asian countries were developing fast enough under the formation of wild geese in flight patter. The miracle of GDP increase up to 20% even appeared in Japan. Unfortunately, Real estate froth of 80’s caused the crises of bank credit, after that, Japan was in depression till now. The American economy was remarkable, though several short recessions. Even in Petroleum crisis, only 23 months recession appeared.
Based on the real business cycle, the paper analysis the initial strength of business cycle. technology is the root of economic undulation, and point out the responsibility of macroeconomic policy—time consistency of policy. In order to realize the time consistency of policy, the formulation the optimal policy is the foundation, government rationality is the Safeguard, the key problem lies on the system arrangement of government commitment.
After point out General theory frame, exam the factor that causes the undulation of America economy. Through the analysis the 5 long wave business cycle, and 10 short wave business cycle , the paper draws the conclusion that technology was the basic reason of America economic undulation, and the responsibility of macroeconomic policy was always keep the policy of time consistency. American fiscal policy focused on how to improve the process of technology, and through Strengthening Independence of central bank ,monetary policy become more and more transparent and stable; Establishment of the system of government accountability and flexible organization improve rationality and automatic rhythmicity of government; After world warⅡ, the stability political situation , promotion of government prestige and trust of the
引文
1 胡佛, 王健. 新古典主义宏观经济学. 经济科学出版社. 1991:23~25
2 戴维. 罗默. 高级宏观经济学. 中国财政出版社. 2003:90~82
3 Francis.Neville,Valerie.A.Ramey. Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle? NBER Working Paper. NO. 8726
4 Kamihigashi, T .Chaotic Dynamics in Quasi-static Systems: Theory and Applications. Journal of Mathmatical Economics. 1999:183~214
5 Finne E.Kyclland, Edward c. Prescotto. Rules Rather than Dicretion: The Inconsistency of Optical Plan. Jounal of Political Economy.1997:90~91
6 Lucas. Robert.E. Economic Policy Evaluation: A Critique Studies in Business Cycle Theory. The MIT Press. 1976: 104~147
7 Robert.G.King, Charles Plosser. Money Credit and Price in Real Business Cycle. The American Economic Review. 1984, (3):123~145
8 Finne E.Kyclland,Edward c. Prescotto.Time to Build and Aggregate fluctuation.Econorretrica.1982, (6): 152~165
9 Charles Plosser. Uderstanding. Real Business Cycle. Jounal of Economic Respective. 1993, (3): 43
10 严中兴. 新经济条件下的经济周期理论-RBC模型对经济周期的解说. 江汉论坛. 2002, (3): 29~32
11 陈继勇, 彭斯达. 新经济条件下美国经济周期的演变趋势. 国际经济论坛. 2003, (7) :39~40
12 洪怡恬. 博弈分析在人力资源管理中的作用. 宁波广播电视大学学报. 2005, (1): 2~3
13 温思美. 经济政策的有效性和商业周期的成因: 一种新的理论与方法论视角. 学术研究. 2004, (11): 43~44
14 杨 怡, 陈仲常. 扩张转向结构优化-美国结构性财政政策的经验与启示. 宏观经济. 2005, (1): 5~6
15 许文强. 2004 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主理论贡献述评. 理论评介. 2004, (12): 82~83
16 袁泽沛, 陈金贤. 经济全球化下政府理性及公共选择问题. 财贸研究. 2002,(8):3
17 Kylland, Finn E. Business Cycle and aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations. Econometrica. 2003, (7):126-156
18 范文清. 基德兰德-雷斯科特模型及其扩张. 经济学动态. 2004, (4): 66~67
19 孙磊, 王志伟. 基德兰德-雷斯科特与实际经济周期理论. 经济学动态. 2004, (11):71~73
20 谭晓东, 李晓华. 时间不一致性及其在货币政策中的应用. 经济学动态. 2004, (11):76~80
21 Faust.J, Svensson L.E. Transparency and Credility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals. International Economic Review. 2001, (4): 34~56
22 Rogolf Kenneth. The Optimal Degree of Precommitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target. Journal of International Economics. 2005, (2): 1169~1190
23 Christian Sigouin. Self-enforcing Employment Contracts and Business Cycle Fluctuations. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2004, (51): 916-931
24 鲁文龙, 陈宏民. 最优产业政策与技术创新. 系统工程理论方法应用. 2004, (4): 98~99
25 邵宜航. 混合经济增长模型中的最优财政政策. 系统工程理论与实践. 2004, (8): 27~28
26 李翔宇. 政府经济职能转变形态探析-理性选择制度主义理论的角度. 四川行政学院学报. 2002, (6): 23~24
27 周业安, 包林梅. 承诺和经济政策的有效性分析. 教学与研究. 2005, (4): 26~28
28 蔡皋琦. 协会、制衡与政府信誉. 经济评论. 2004, (1) :110~112
29 孙亚. 非对称性信息激励经济理论. 中南财经大学学报. 2001, (1) :54~55
30 薛敬孝, 张琦. 论战争对美国经济周期的影响. 经济评论. 2005, (1) :112~115
31 Bardsen G.P.G.Fisher,R.Nymoen. Business cycles:Real factor or fallacies?Economtric and Economic Theory in the 20 century Cambridge University Press. 2004, (9): 499~527
32 钱士春. 经济增长与波动关系研究综述. 经济学动态. 2004, (4)
33 秦嗣毅. 战后美国财政政策演变研究. 学习与探索. 2003, (2) :107~108
34 陈继勇, 王 钊. 克林顿与布什政府的财政政策比较. 经济. 2002, (5) :5~6
35 随新玉. 美国财政制度的变迁与借鉴. 郑州工业高等专科学校学报. 2003, (9) :24~25
36 李敏. 美国政府九十年代的结构性财政政策及其启示. 杭州商学院学报. 2003, (2) :83~85
37 A.Cheron,F.Langot. Labor Market Search and Real Business Cycle:Roconciling Nash Bargaining with the Real Business Wage Dynamics. Review Economics. 2004, (7): 476~493
38 Andrew T.Young. Labors Share Fluctuation,based Technology Change,and the Business Cycle. Review Economic Dynamics. 2004, (7):916~931
39 蔡跃洲, 吉昱华. 规则行事、泰勒规则及其在中国的适用性. 经济评论. 2004, (2) :89~90
40 李维刚, 泰勒规则、联储货币政策及我国货币调控问题的思考理论园地. 2005, (2):16~
41 Fisher, J . Technology shocks matter. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Woking Paper. 2002.
42 Orphanides, Athanasios. Historical Monetary Polical Analysis and the Taylor Rule. Board of Governor of the Federal Reserve System Working Paper. 2002.
43 Athanasios ,Orphanides,Volker.Wieland. Efficient Monetary Policy Desigh Near Price Stability. Federal Reseave Board Working Paper.1999, (12):56~78
44 William A.Sahlman. The New Economy Is Stronger Than You Think. Harvard Business Review.1999, (6): 77
45 Lars E.O.Svensson. The inflation Forecast and the Loss Function.Central Banking, Monetary and Practice: Essays in Honor of Charles Goodhar. 2003, (1):135-152
46 朱庆华, 颜祥林. 信息公开制度探析. 情报理论与实践. 2001, (5) :2
47 江 涛. 公共选择理论的假设与方法论意义. 黑河学刊. 2003, (6) :2~3
48 周业安. 政策制定过程的新制度经济学视角-评迪克西特《经济政策的制定:交易成本政治学的视角》.管理世界. 2005, (1) :1~4
49 张旭霞. 政府与公众的信任关系是现代政府的力量源泉. 中共福建省委党校学报. 2004, (10) :2
2 戴维. 罗默. 高级宏观经济学. 中国财政出版社. 2003:90~82
3 Francis.Neville,Valerie.A.Ramey. Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle? NBER Working Paper. NO. 8726
4 Kamihigashi, T .Chaotic Dynamics in Quasi-static Systems: Theory and Applications. Journal of Mathmatical Economics. 1999:183~214
5 Finne E.Kyclland, Edward c. Prescotto. Rules Rather than Dicretion: The Inconsistency of Optical Plan. Jounal of Political Economy.1997:90~91
6 Lucas. Robert.E. Economic Policy Evaluation: A Critique Studies in Business Cycle Theory. The MIT Press. 1976: 104~147
7 Robert.G.King, Charles Plosser. Money Credit and Price in Real Business Cycle. The American Economic Review. 1984, (3):123~145
8 Finne E.Kyclland,Edward c. Prescotto.Time to Build and Aggregate fluctuation.Econorretrica.1982, (6): 152~165
9 Charles Plosser. Uderstanding. Real Business Cycle. Jounal of Economic Respective. 1993, (3): 43
10 严中兴. 新经济条件下的经济周期理论-RBC模型对经济周期的解说. 江汉论坛. 2002, (3): 29~32
11 陈继勇, 彭斯达. 新经济条件下美国经济周期的演变趋势. 国际经济论坛. 2003, (7) :39~40
12 洪怡恬. 博弈分析在人力资源管理中的作用. 宁波广播电视大学学报. 2005, (1): 2~3
13 温思美. 经济政策的有效性和商业周期的成因: 一种新的理论与方法论视角. 学术研究. 2004, (11): 43~44
14 杨 怡, 陈仲常. 扩张转向结构优化-美国结构性财政政策的经验与启示. 宏观经济. 2005, (1): 5~6
15 许文强. 2004 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主理论贡献述评. 理论评介. 2004, (12): 82~83
16 袁泽沛, 陈金贤. 经济全球化下政府理性及公共选择问题. 财贸研究. 2002,(8):3
17 Kylland, Finn E. Business Cycle and aggregate Labor Market Fluctuations. Econometrica. 2003, (7):126-156
18 范文清. 基德兰德-雷斯科特模型及其扩张. 经济学动态. 2004, (4): 66~67
19 孙磊, 王志伟. 基德兰德-雷斯科特与实际经济周期理论. 经济学动态. 2004, (11):71~73
20 谭晓东, 李晓华. 时间不一致性及其在货币政策中的应用. 经济学动态. 2004, (11):76~80
21 Faust.J, Svensson L.E. Transparency and Credility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals. International Economic Review. 2001, (4): 34~56
22 Rogolf Kenneth. The Optimal Degree of Precommitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target. Journal of International Economics. 2005, (2): 1169~1190
23 Christian Sigouin. Self-enforcing Employment Contracts and Business Cycle Fluctuations. Journal of Monetary Economics. 2004, (51): 916-931
24 鲁文龙, 陈宏民. 最优产业政策与技术创新. 系统工程理论方法应用. 2004, (4): 98~99
25 邵宜航. 混合经济增长模型中的最优财政政策. 系统工程理论与实践. 2004, (8): 27~28
26 李翔宇. 政府经济职能转变形态探析-理性选择制度主义理论的角度. 四川行政学院学报. 2002, (6): 23~24
27 周业安, 包林梅. 承诺和经济政策的有效性分析. 教学与研究. 2005, (4): 26~28
28 蔡皋琦. 协会、制衡与政府信誉. 经济评论. 2004, (1) :110~112
29 孙亚. 非对称性信息激励经济理论. 中南财经大学学报. 2001, (1) :54~55
30 薛敬孝, 张琦. 论战争对美国经济周期的影响. 经济评论. 2005, (1) :112~115
31 Bardsen G.P.G.Fisher,R.Nymoen. Business cycles:Real factor or fallacies?Economtric and Economic Theory in the 20 century Cambridge University Press. 2004, (9): 499~527
32 钱士春. 经济增长与波动关系研究综述. 经济学动态. 2004, (4)
33 秦嗣毅. 战后美国财政政策演变研究. 学习与探索. 2003, (2) :107~108
34 陈继勇, 王 钊. 克林顿与布什政府的财政政策比较. 经济. 2002, (5) :5~6
35 随新玉. 美国财政制度的变迁与借鉴. 郑州工业高等专科学校学报. 2003, (9) :24~25
36 李敏. 美国政府九十年代的结构性财政政策及其启示. 杭州商学院学报. 2003, (2) :83~85
37 A.Cheron,F.Langot. Labor Market Search and Real Business Cycle:Roconciling Nash Bargaining with the Real Business Wage Dynamics. Review Economics. 2004, (7): 476~493
38 Andrew T.Young. Labors Share Fluctuation,based Technology Change,and the Business Cycle. Review Economic Dynamics. 2004, (7):916~931
39 蔡跃洲, 吉昱华. 规则行事、泰勒规则及其在中国的适用性. 经济评论. 2004, (2) :89~90
40 李维刚, 泰勒规则、联储货币政策及我国货币调控问题的思考理论园地. 2005, (2):16~
41 Fisher, J . Technology shocks matter. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Woking Paper. 2002.
42 Orphanides, Athanasios. Historical Monetary Polical Analysis and the Taylor Rule. Board of Governor of the Federal Reserve System Working Paper. 2002.
43 Athanasios ,Orphanides,Volker.Wieland. Efficient Monetary Policy Desigh Near Price Stability. Federal Reseave Board Working Paper.1999, (12):56~78
44 William A.Sahlman. The New Economy Is Stronger Than You Think. Harvard Business Review.1999, (6): 77
45 Lars E.O.Svensson. The inflation Forecast and the Loss Function.Central Banking, Monetary and Practice: Essays in Honor of Charles Goodhar. 2003, (1):135-152
46 朱庆华, 颜祥林. 信息公开制度探析. 情报理论与实践. 2001, (5) :2
47 江 涛. 公共选择理论的假设与方法论意义. 黑河学刊. 2003, (6) :2~3
48 周业安. 政策制定过程的新制度经济学视角-评迪克西特《经济政策的制定:交易成本政治学的视角》.管理世界. 2005, (1) :1~4
49 张旭霞. 政府与公众的信任关系是现代政府的力量源泉. 中共福建省委党校学报. 2004, (10) :2