云南南部山区农户陆稻技术采用与粮食保障的经济分析
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摘要
在中国市场力量越来越大的情况下，关注那些可能被边缘化的贫困农户，尤其是边远山区的小农户，考察他们应对各种风险以保障食物安全的生计策略，对于理解农户经济行为和缓解农村贫困等具有重要意义。
中国云南大部分山区地处边境，地面崎岖不平，环境退化，远离市场，居住在该地区的人群以少数民族居多，贫穷比例很高。尽管云南农业的商业化程度在不断提高，但粮食生产仍然是山区农户首要的维持生计的生产活动，以满足粮食需求的生产占用了他们大量的劳动力和主要的土地资源，粮食自给自足的生产方式仍占统治地位。因此，增加农民收入的措施和途径，必须建立在农户粮食需求安全的基础之上。
云南农业技术部门近年来展示了一些很有创新和发展前景的方法和技术，以提高农业生产力，同时保护自然资源。但是，还缺乏对云南南部山区通过固定耕地和推广陆稻新技术而提高农户粮食保障转变过程的深入认识，尤其是对山区农户通过不同生计策略保障食物安全和提高收入的活动缺乏深入理解。需要从理论和实践上对山区农户粮食保障进行研究，总结农户保障食物安全的生计策略，认识农户粮食保障与农业技术发展的关系。
本论文以云南南部山区农户陆稻技术采用与农户粮食保障的经济分析为研究对象，对农户陆稻生产及其技术采用进行比较分析，考察农业技术的采用对于农户粮食保障的影响，描述不同发展阶段的农户特征及其技术需求，为深入认识云南南部山区以农户粮食保障为中心的社会经济转型过程，以及制定山区发展的政策提供基础信息和科学依据。
本文第一章提出了论文的研究问题，明确全文的研究对象，说明了所运用的分析方法、研究程序和数据情况，提出了本文的主要论点并总结了基本发现。第二章简要回顾了现阶段关于粮食保障与贫困和技术推广之间的关系，阐述了本文分析的概念框架。第三章回顾了贫困和云南山区的政策文献，以澜沧县为例描述了建国后至今的山区主要粮食作物的生产和发展过程，并对调查农户所拥有的资源禀赋和种植行为的描述。在此基础上，第四章以调查村寨为单位，分析了农户的陆稻改良技术采用及其影响因素。以农户采用的陆稻品种和种植陆稻的地块为指标，第五章分析不同种植方式下农户的投入产出差异，并将农户种植行为进行分解，发现云南南部农户在陆稻生产中种植行为的质的差异和量的差异。第六章描述了云南南部山区农户口粮自给的现状，分析比较了缺粮户和不缺粮户的资源差异，以及农户粮食保障的影响因素。第七章对云南南部山区农户的收入来源及其分布进行了总结，对调查点农户进行分类和比较，并运用模拟分析的方法估计了陆稻改良技术对于增加农户家庭收入的贡献，综合各项指标对不同转型时期云南南部山区农户的经济发展阶段进行划分。基于以上分析，第八章总结了不同发展模式下的农户特征及其主导产业，对本文的研究结论进行了概括，并提出相应的政策建议。
本论文的研究选题本身具有开拓与创新价值，在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础之上，立足于一手的农户调查数据，本论文的创新体现在如下几个方面：
选题的创新：目前，云南山区的转型模式和与它相关的一系列在农民粮食安全、收入增加和环境保护方面的成果尚缺乏研究文献可作依据。关于这方面的研究还不够完整和系统：(1)很少对其变化的性质特征作系统研究，更缺乏规范研究基础上的对于有云南山区农户发展的成功模式中的总结或讨论；(2)已有的研究往往存在片面性，只强调这一系统中的某一方面，对系统中其它方面或者它们的相互作用没有给予足够的重视。而本文系统回顾了山区发展中的政策文献，以云南南部山区陆稻生产中的现代农业技术推广为切入点，以实现山区农户粮食保障为基础，对山区农户的发展模式以及其中的影响因素进行分析，研究内容涉及农户所拥有的土地资源、技术采用、粮食保障和收入分析，并总结出不同经济转型时期的发展模式，以期望对上述研究不足之处进行补充。
数据的创新：本次数据中不仅获得了各调查县的多年农作物发展的二手数据，还通过农户调查获得了第一手的山区农户粮食生产和技术采用方面的数据。
农户调查涉及的范围很广、而且包括了主要居住的少数民族，在云南边远山区展开如此之大规模的调查还是比较少的。在基本信息调查的基础上，还有第二次调查获得地块的信息。调查中，采用多种方式相结合，包括机构访谈、关键的技术人员的采访，村级调查表、农户调查、个案访谈，小组讨论等，充分听取农户的声音，从地区或州级水平到农户层层递进，从而获得多种形式获得有效数据，并将这些数据用于后面的分析
研究方法创新：在调查中，采用多种方式相结合，包括机构访谈、关键的技术人员的采访，村级调查表、农户调查、个案访谈，小组讨论等，从地区或州级水平到农户层层递进，尤其是充分听取农户的声音，让农户充分表达他们的需求和要求。本文分不同层面获得信息，既考虑了从农业部门到农户的“从上而下”的技术供给，又考虑了农户“从下而上”对于农业技术的需求和要求，从供给和需求两个方面分析了农户的技术采用行为及其影响因素。
农户技术采用和发展的框架：结合农户在不同发展阶段的需求，本文提出了农户技术采用和发展的框架。即农户在最初的以生存为导向的情况下，往往更偏重于粮食作物的技术需求，以满足家庭成员的口粮需要，虽然也有部分农户希望发展经济作物，但是实现农户粮食自给是让农户持续发展的基础，此时农业技术部门的推广重点在于粮食作物，并且由于这类农户经济条件差缺乏投入，应当成为当地农技部门补助的重点。而当农户实现粮食保障之后，农户的发展要求会更倾向于经济作物或是养殖业的发展，但是农业也可以通过销售余粮增加家庭收入，但这对农户的市场条件要求较高。
总结发展模式：结合农户的土地资源、陆稻生产、技术采用、农户粮食保障状况以及农户家庭现金收入等部分的详细分析，运用主成分分析方法选取比较重要的14个变量，分别从陆稻种植、技术采用、经济发展水平和粮食保障程度等四个方面，将云南南部山区不同经济转型时期的农户发展分为生存不安全阶段、为以生存和安全为目的的阶段、粮食供给温饱阶段、粮食保障的经济发展阶段和经济发展逐步成熟阶段，并结合其中发展的经验教训，总结出不同转型时期各阶段的模式和特点，论述了不同种类的发展模式下农户的特征，以及分析其中的推动力和评价技术影响，为其他类似地区的扶贫工作及农业发展规划提供参考。
Upland areas of southern Yunnan are characterized by rugged terrain, poor access to markets, environmental degradation, and a high incidence of poverty. These area also border areas inhabited by ethnic minorities. Farmers have been growing upland rice for years using traditional varieties under shifting cultivation systems that are based on slash-and-burn practices. Despite increasing commercialization of agriculture, upland rice products is still primarily a subsistence-oriented activity in southern Yunnan, with farmers utilizing a large share of their resources, primarily land and labor, to meet food needs. Self-sufficiency in food production is a dominant objective of upland farmers. Income-generating commercial activities thus need to be based on the foundation of household-level food security, which often means that households are able to produce a bulk of their own food requirements.Upland rice production systems in Yunnan are currently in transition. Some of the driving forces area increased population density, demand for better quality of life, increased investments in transportation infrastructures, investment in terrace construction, and changes in forestry and land management policies. Livelihood systems comprising of various combinations of food crops, livestock, cash crops and other economic activities are thus emerging. However, the productivity of food crops, mainly upland rice, remains low in the bulk of the area, and food insecurity of the poor is a major concern.With the background that the market economics in China is becoming more and more powerful, it is important to pay attention to these marginal households who may be unable cope with adequately with the risks associated with the market.However, the patterns of transitions in upland areas of Yunnan and their likely consequences in terms of household food security, income generation and environmental protections are currently poor understood. A good understanding of the patterns of transition, the drivers of these transitions and their impacts is essential for identifying the target population, and developing suitable policy advices and improved technologies for addressing the problems of food insecurity and land degradation in the uplands.Taking farmers' upland rice technology adoption and their household food security as target, this research focus on comparing farmers' upland rice production practices among different adoption pattern, estimating the impact of improved technology adoption on their household food security and describing the household characteristics and their endowments in different development period associated with their technology demand so as to get better understanding upland household economic transition based on their food security to be the reference and scientific base for designing policy for uplands.
There are eight chapters in the dissertation. The first chapter focused on the research objectives and the related issues, also summarized the analysis methods, research progress and data introduction. The following chapter two briefly reviewed the literature on the relationship among food security, poverty and agriculture technology extension and described the conceptual framework for the whole research. As the background, chapter three was to review the policy for poverty and mountain agriculture, characterize the nature of agriculture production in upland area, and divide the history of upland rice production into periods taking Lancang County as example. Besides, it also included the description of farm characteristics and their endowments. Based on the description, chapter four analyzed the patterns of adoption of upland rice technology and its determinants. In terms of upland rice variety and land type, comparison analysis was carried out for input and output analysis as well as the differentiate behavior of household production practices, these were included in chapter five. Chapter six focused on household food security and estimating the impact of improved upland rice technology. Chapter seven described and compared household cash gross income, and estimated the impact of improved upland rice technology on household income by simulation analysis method. Combining the above analysis, field sites were divided into different periods of the transition. At last, chapter eight summarized the development pattern of uplands area in southern Yunnan and the conclusions in the research, some recommendations came into existing in accordance with the detail anlaysis.
Based on reviewing the related research and associated with the first-hand household data, the issue of this research indicated several innovations:
Original topic: the pattern of transitions in upland areas of Yunnan and their likely consequences in terms of household security, income generation and environmental protections are currently poorly understood. The current knowledge on this is incomplete as only few studies of this nature have been conducted and studies have often emphasized a particular aspect of the system that is analysis is needed to help design better policies and technologies for achieving sustainable food security in the uplands. The research systematically reviewed the upland development policies, estimated the impact of improved agriculture technology on household food security and summarized its pattern taking the agriculture technology extension as entry point. The issues included land endowments, technology adoption pattern, household food security associated with its determinants and income analysis. To some extent, these can be the complementary work for the above research deficiency.
Original data: In this research, it included not only the long-term published data to provide a broader picture of the nature of agriculture production trends but also the first-hand household data on the family characteristics, rice production, food security and technology adoption etc. covering the main ethnic minority group and prefectures in southern Yunnan. Besides, the second household survey is particularly based on detail input and output information at plot level.
Improved research method: In the survey, diverse methods were used including institute and key technician interview, village questionnaire, household questionnaire, farmer deep interview and focus group discussion and so on. Thus the information collected was from different aspects which ensure the objectives of the research can be met. Also, both information on technology supply from agriculture department to farmers called from up to bottom style and the technology demand from farmers called from bottom to up style have been taken into account. The technology extension is analyzed combining with its supply and demand.
Framework for household technology demand and adoption: The household would like to adopt different modern and improved technology in accordance with their position of the different development period. Generally, the majority of the household would prefer to the technology extension on food crops when they are in the subsistence-oriented period so that they can meet the family members' food requirement. Although part of them would like to depend on the cash crops production, the self-sufficiency is the base to ensure their sustainable development due to their vulnerability and inconvenient and bad access to market as well as poverty. Accordingly, the technology extension for food crops planting should be paid more attention and the extreme poverty household should be got more subsidies on input and technology adoption to improve their agriculture productivity. After ensuring the food security, household would switch to plant cash crops and begin livestock feeding. Undoubtedly, farmers also can improve their family income by selling the surplus grain and this would require better access to market.
Summarization on developing pattern: This is also the conclusion of the research. Combining the linkage among household land endowments, upland rice production practices, technology adoption pattern, household food security and its cash income together, principal analysis is utilized to find out the key variables to divide the field sites into different periods in the transition. These variables represented the four aspects of household economy, that is, upland rice production, technology adoption, household food security and economic status. Five periods including insecurity and subsistence-oriented period, subsistence period, self-sufficiency and household food security period, primary developing period based on the household food security and advanced developing period with household food security were consequently summarized. This is the reference for poverty alleviation and agriculture designing in other similar regions.
中国云南大部分山区地处边境，地面崎岖不平，环境退化，远离市场，居住在该地区的人群以少数民族居多，贫穷比例很高。尽管云南农业的商业化程度在不断提高，但粮食生产仍然是山区农户首要的维持生计的生产活动，以满足粮食需求的生产占用了他们大量的劳动力和主要的土地资源，粮食自给自足的生产方式仍占统治地位。因此，增加农民收入的措施和途径，必须建立在农户粮食需求安全的基础之上。
云南农业技术部门近年来展示了一些很有创新和发展前景的方法和技术，以提高农业生产力，同时保护自然资源。但是，还缺乏对云南南部山区通过固定耕地和推广陆稻新技术而提高农户粮食保障转变过程的深入认识，尤其是对山区农户通过不同生计策略保障食物安全和提高收入的活动缺乏深入理解。需要从理论和实践上对山区农户粮食保障进行研究，总结农户保障食物安全的生计策略，认识农户粮食保障与农业技术发展的关系。
本论文以云南南部山区农户陆稻技术采用与农户粮食保障的经济分析为研究对象，对农户陆稻生产及其技术采用进行比较分析，考察农业技术的采用对于农户粮食保障的影响，描述不同发展阶段的农户特征及其技术需求，为深入认识云南南部山区以农户粮食保障为中心的社会经济转型过程，以及制定山区发展的政策提供基础信息和科学依据。
本文第一章提出了论文的研究问题，明确全文的研究对象，说明了所运用的分析方法、研究程序和数据情况，提出了本文的主要论点并总结了基本发现。第二章简要回顾了现阶段关于粮食保障与贫困和技术推广之间的关系，阐述了本文分析的概念框架。第三章回顾了贫困和云南山区的政策文献，以澜沧县为例描述了建国后至今的山区主要粮食作物的生产和发展过程，并对调查农户所拥有的资源禀赋和种植行为的描述。在此基础上，第四章以调查村寨为单位，分析了农户的陆稻改良技术采用及其影响因素。以农户采用的陆稻品种和种植陆稻的地块为指标，第五章分析不同种植方式下农户的投入产出差异，并将农户种植行为进行分解，发现云南南部农户在陆稻生产中种植行为的质的差异和量的差异。第六章描述了云南南部山区农户口粮自给的现状，分析比较了缺粮户和不缺粮户的资源差异，以及农户粮食保障的影响因素。第七章对云南南部山区农户的收入来源及其分布进行了总结，对调查点农户进行分类和比较，并运用模拟分析的方法估计了陆稻改良技术对于增加农户家庭收入的贡献，综合各项指标对不同转型时期云南南部山区农户的经济发展阶段进行划分。基于以上分析，第八章总结了不同发展模式下的农户特征及其主导产业，对本文的研究结论进行了概括，并提出相应的政策建议。
本论文的研究选题本身具有开拓与创新价值，在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础之上，立足于一手的农户调查数据，本论文的创新体现在如下几个方面：
选题的创新：目前，云南山区的转型模式和与它相关的一系列在农民粮食安全、收入增加和环境保护方面的成果尚缺乏研究文献可作依据。关于这方面的研究还不够完整和系统：(1)很少对其变化的性质特征作系统研究，更缺乏规范研究基础上的对于有云南山区农户发展的成功模式中的总结或讨论；(2)已有的研究往往存在片面性，只强调这一系统中的某一方面，对系统中其它方面或者它们的相互作用没有给予足够的重视。而本文系统回顾了山区发展中的政策文献，以云南南部山区陆稻生产中的现代农业技术推广为切入点，以实现山区农户粮食保障为基础，对山区农户的发展模式以及其中的影响因素进行分析，研究内容涉及农户所拥有的土地资源、技术采用、粮食保障和收入分析，并总结出不同经济转型时期的发展模式，以期望对上述研究不足之处进行补充。
数据的创新：本次数据中不仅获得了各调查县的多年农作物发展的二手数据，还通过农户调查获得了第一手的山区农户粮食生产和技术采用方面的数据。
农户调查涉及的范围很广、而且包括了主要居住的少数民族，在云南边远山区展开如此之大规模的调查还是比较少的。在基本信息调查的基础上，还有第二次调查获得地块的信息。调查中，采用多种方式相结合，包括机构访谈、关键的技术人员的采访，村级调查表、农户调查、个案访谈，小组讨论等，充分听取农户的声音，从地区或州级水平到农户层层递进，从而获得多种形式获得有效数据，并将这些数据用于后面的分析
研究方法创新：在调查中，采用多种方式相结合，包括机构访谈、关键的技术人员的采访，村级调查表、农户调查、个案访谈，小组讨论等，从地区或州级水平到农户层层递进，尤其是充分听取农户的声音，让农户充分表达他们的需求和要求。本文分不同层面获得信息，既考虑了从农业部门到农户的“从上而下”的技术供给，又考虑了农户“从下而上”对于农业技术的需求和要求，从供给和需求两个方面分析了农户的技术采用行为及其影响因素。
农户技术采用和发展的框架：结合农户在不同发展阶段的需求，本文提出了农户技术采用和发展的框架。即农户在最初的以生存为导向的情况下，往往更偏重于粮食作物的技术需求，以满足家庭成员的口粮需要，虽然也有部分农户希望发展经济作物，但是实现农户粮食自给是让农户持续发展的基础，此时农业技术部门的推广重点在于粮食作物，并且由于这类农户经济条件差缺乏投入，应当成为当地农技部门补助的重点。而当农户实现粮食保障之后，农户的发展要求会更倾向于经济作物或是养殖业的发展，但是农业也可以通过销售余粮增加家庭收入，但这对农户的市场条件要求较高。
总结发展模式：结合农户的土地资源、陆稻生产、技术采用、农户粮食保障状况以及农户家庭现金收入等部分的详细分析，运用主成分分析方法选取比较重要的14个变量，分别从陆稻种植、技术采用、经济发展水平和粮食保障程度等四个方面，将云南南部山区不同经济转型时期的农户发展分为生存不安全阶段、为以生存和安全为目的的阶段、粮食供给温饱阶段、粮食保障的经济发展阶段和经济发展逐步成熟阶段，并结合其中发展的经验教训，总结出不同转型时期各阶段的模式和特点，论述了不同种类的发展模式下农户的特征，以及分析其中的推动力和评价技术影响，为其他类似地区的扶贫工作及农业发展规划提供参考。
Upland areas of southern Yunnan are characterized by rugged terrain, poor access to markets, environmental degradation, and a high incidence of poverty. These area also border areas inhabited by ethnic minorities. Farmers have been growing upland rice for years using traditional varieties under shifting cultivation systems that are based on slash-and-burn practices. Despite increasing commercialization of agriculture, upland rice products is still primarily a subsistence-oriented activity in southern Yunnan, with farmers utilizing a large share of their resources, primarily land and labor, to meet food needs. Self-sufficiency in food production is a dominant objective of upland farmers. Income-generating commercial activities thus need to be based on the foundation of household-level food security, which often means that households are able to produce a bulk of their own food requirements.Upland rice production systems in Yunnan are currently in transition. Some of the driving forces area increased population density, demand for better quality of life, increased investments in transportation infrastructures, investment in terrace construction, and changes in forestry and land management policies. Livelihood systems comprising of various combinations of food crops, livestock, cash crops and other economic activities are thus emerging. However, the productivity of food crops, mainly upland rice, remains low in the bulk of the area, and food insecurity of the poor is a major concern.With the background that the market economics in China is becoming more and more powerful, it is important to pay attention to these marginal households who may be unable cope with adequately with the risks associated with the market.However, the patterns of transitions in upland areas of Yunnan and their likely consequences in terms of household food security, income generation and environmental protections are currently poor understood. A good understanding of the patterns of transition, the drivers of these transitions and their impacts is essential for identifying the target population, and developing suitable policy advices and improved technologies for addressing the problems of food insecurity and land degradation in the uplands.Taking farmers' upland rice technology adoption and their household food security as target, this research focus on comparing farmers' upland rice production practices among different adoption pattern, estimating the impact of improved technology adoption on their household food security and describing the household characteristics and their endowments in different development period associated with their technology demand so as to get better understanding upland household economic transition based on their food security to be the reference and scientific base for designing policy for uplands.
There are eight chapters in the dissertation. The first chapter focused on the research objectives and the related issues, also summarized the analysis methods, research progress and data introduction. The following chapter two briefly reviewed the literature on the relationship among food security, poverty and agriculture technology extension and described the conceptual framework for the whole research. As the background, chapter three was to review the policy for poverty and mountain agriculture, characterize the nature of agriculture production in upland area, and divide the history of upland rice production into periods taking Lancang County as example. Besides, it also included the description of farm characteristics and their endowments. Based on the description, chapter four analyzed the patterns of adoption of upland rice technology and its determinants. In terms of upland rice variety and land type, comparison analysis was carried out for input and output analysis as well as the differentiate behavior of household production practices, these were included in chapter five. Chapter six focused on household food security and estimating the impact of improved upland rice technology. Chapter seven described and compared household cash gross income, and estimated the impact of improved upland rice technology on household income by simulation analysis method. Combining the above analysis, field sites were divided into different periods of the transition. At last, chapter eight summarized the development pattern of uplands area in southern Yunnan and the conclusions in the research, some recommendations came into existing in accordance with the detail anlaysis.
Based on reviewing the related research and associated with the first-hand household data, the issue of this research indicated several innovations:
Original topic: the pattern of transitions in upland areas of Yunnan and their likely consequences in terms of household security, income generation and environmental protections are currently poorly understood. The current knowledge on this is incomplete as only few studies of this nature have been conducted and studies have often emphasized a particular aspect of the system that is analysis is needed to help design better policies and technologies for achieving sustainable food security in the uplands. The research systematically reviewed the upland development policies, estimated the impact of improved agriculture technology on household food security and summarized its pattern taking the agriculture technology extension as entry point. The issues included land endowments, technology adoption pattern, household food security associated with its determinants and income analysis. To some extent, these can be the complementary work for the above research deficiency.
Original data: In this research, it included not only the long-term published data to provide a broader picture of the nature of agriculture production trends but also the first-hand household data on the family characteristics, rice production, food security and technology adoption etc. covering the main ethnic minority group and prefectures in southern Yunnan. Besides, the second household survey is particularly based on detail input and output information at plot level.
Improved research method: In the survey, diverse methods were used including institute and key technician interview, village questionnaire, household questionnaire, farmer deep interview and focus group discussion and so on. Thus the information collected was from different aspects which ensure the objectives of the research can be met. Also, both information on technology supply from agriculture department to farmers called from up to bottom style and the technology demand from farmers called from bottom to up style have been taken into account. The technology extension is analyzed combining with its supply and demand.
Framework for household technology demand and adoption: The household would like to adopt different modern and improved technology in accordance with their position of the different development period. Generally, the majority of the household would prefer to the technology extension on food crops when they are in the subsistence-oriented period so that they can meet the family members' food requirement. Although part of them would like to depend on the cash crops production, the self-sufficiency is the base to ensure their sustainable development due to their vulnerability and inconvenient and bad access to market as well as poverty. Accordingly, the technology extension for food crops planting should be paid more attention and the extreme poverty household should be got more subsidies on input and technology adoption to improve their agriculture productivity. After ensuring the food security, household would switch to plant cash crops and begin livestock feeding. Undoubtedly, farmers also can improve their family income by selling the surplus grain and this would require better access to market.
Summarization on developing pattern: This is also the conclusion of the research. Combining the linkage among household land endowments, upland rice production practices, technology adoption pattern, household food security and its cash income together, principal analysis is utilized to find out the key variables to divide the field sites into different periods in the transition. These variables represented the four aspects of household economy, that is, upland rice production, technology adoption, household food security and economic status. Five periods including insecurity and subsistence-oriented period, subsistence period, self-sufficiency and household food security period, primary developing period based on the household food security and advanced developing period with household food security were consequently summarized. This is the reference for poverty alleviation and agriculture designing in other similar regions.
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