区域航空公司收益管理模型及其应用研究
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摘要
收益管理理论的多学科特性,给国内航空公司在应用上造成了一定的困难,我国航空业的收益管理应用相对国外存在较大差距。航空公司客运市场总体上可以分为国内市场和国际市场两大类,而在国际航线的经营上,由于客源组成相似,国内航空公司与国外航空公司往往面临着极为相似的营销环境。因此,国内航空公司在实施收益管理的过程中,在国际航线上可以借鉴国外航空公司收益管理的经验,这在实践中已得到证明。需要关注的是,由于国内航空市场与国外航空市场的巨大差异,直接将适应国外航空市场的收益管理技术应用于国内市场,往往收效甚微,甚至适得其反。本文正是在这种背景下,运用理论研究和实证分析相结合的方法,重点研究以经营国内航线为主的区域航空公司的收益管理方法。
对收益管理理论的内涵作了全面的分析。从收益管理的基本概念入手,在传统营销学理论的基础上,总结了收益管理理论产生的市场背景和理论根源。在此基础上,分析了收益管理应用环境变化对收益管理理论应用的影响,提出了收益管理应用研究模型,从而从源头上解决了区域航空市场应用收益管理理论的方法问题。
提出了区域航空市场的旅客分层模型。识别细分市场和选择具有最佳机会的细分市场是现代企业营销工作中最为基础性的工作,航空业也不例外。由于经济发展特征和本地文化特征与国外迥异,区域航空市场呈现出明显不同的特征。本文将社会阶层理论引入区域航空市场的细分分析,结合消费者行为学理论,提出了具有二层架构特征的区域航空市场旅客分层模型,解决了区域航空公司在收益管理理论的应用中面临的最为基础的市场细分问题。
在区域航空市场客源分层的基础上,对区域航空公司收益管理策略进行了分析,提出了适应区域航空市场客源分布特征的区域航空公司定价管理策略和存量管理策略。根据这一分析思路,构建了一个包括市场细分维度在内的收益管理策略分析模型,这一模型的构建有利于区域航空公司以客源分析为基础,在不同的市场发展阶段,应用收益管理的核心原理构建统一的收益管理体系。
建立了区域航空公司航线客流量预测模型。通过对区域航空市场特征的深入研究,总结了影响客流量的各种因素,在此基础上,提出了一个自顶向下逐步分解的航线客流量预测模型,由总体趋势预测,中长期预测和短期预测三部分构成。本文集中探讨了其中的中长期预测子模型和短期预测子模型,并进行了实证研究。
研究了区域航空公司机票动态定价博弈问题。结合区域航空市场的实际情况,对市场份额模型中的效用函数进行了改进,改进后的效用函数特别考虑了航班时刻和品牌竞争因素对客票销售的影响,反映了旅客对航空公司供应产品的价值判断。通过logit品牌选择概率模型与效用函数的结合,定义了不同价格组合下旅客的选择概率。最后通过实例分析了两个航班在采取两种运价博弈时均衡求解的过程。
在应用研究上,针对潜力层旅客,设计并开发了区域航空公司剩余座位销售管理系统并投入应用。本文分析了系统的使用效果,从售票量和平均票价两个方面对销售趋势进行了分析。实践表明,本文提出的收益管理方法及开发的应用系统达到了预期的效果;销售趋势也表明,潜力层的旅客行为特征和旅客规模与本文分析的结论是相符的。
Because of the multidisciplinary characteristics of Revenue Management (RM), there are some difficulties in the application of RM theory in domestic airlines. There is a relatively large gap between Chinese airlines and foreign airlines in the application of RM in civil aviation industry. As known, the air market can be divided into domestic market and international market. On the operation of international airlines, domestic airlines and foreign airlines often face a very similar marketing environment because of the similar constituents of passenger sources. Therefore, the domestic airlines can more easily use the experience of other countries for reference in the implementation of RM on international market, which has been proven in practice. But we should pay attention that the domestic aviation market is much different from foreign aviation market. If the foreign RM technology is applied in the domestic market without any changes, there will be little effectiveness, or even the opposite result is produced exactly. The thesis focuses on the research of regional airlines' RM practices based on domestic airline market by adopting the methods that combining the theoretical research and empirical analysis.
A comprehensive analysis on the connotation of RM theory is given in the article. Beginning with the basic concept of RM, the market background and the theories sources of RM theories is summarized, which is based on traditional marketing theory. And then, the impact of the application environment changes on the application of RM is analyzed, and RM application model is proposed, which solves the methods of the application of RM in the regional airlines.
A passenger hierarchical model of regional airline market is built in the thesis. Market segmentation and market targeting are the most basic work of marketing in modern enterprises, and the airline industry is no exception. Because the economic situation and characteristics of local culture are different, airline market between foreign and domestic is significantly different. The theory of social strata is introduced to market segmentation analysis in regional airline market. With the combination of consumer behavior theory, a market segmentation model which has two-story structure features is proposed for regional airlines, and the most important problem in RM application is solved in regional airlines.
Basing on market segmentation of regional airline market, the strategy of RM in regional airlines is analyzed, and the strategies on price management and inventory management which are Suitable for passenger structure are suggested. According to the analysis, a RM positioning model including the dimension of market segmentation is developed, which is useful for regional airlines to build a unified RM system applying the core principle of RM based on the market segmentation in different stages of market.
A passenger flow forecasting model is built for regional airlines. After studying the characteristics of regional aviation market deeply, the factors affecting passenger traffic is listed. Then, a top-down route traffic forecasting model which has gradual decomposition characteristics is proposed. This model consists of three parts, the overall trend forecasts, medium and long-term forecasts, and short-term forecasts. The medium and long-term forecasting submodel and short-term forecasting submodel is focused on, and an empirical research is carried out.
The dynamic pricing and game problem of regional airlines is studied in the thesis. In view of circumstances of regional airline market, the Utility Function which is the core part of the model of market share is optimized. The improved Utility Function includes the impacts of the flight time and the brand competitive factors on ticket sales particularly, reflecting the value judgment of passengers. Through the combination of the Logit model and Utility Function, the choice probability of passengers in different price combinations is described. Finally, the process for two flights to acquire game equilibrium is described.
In application research, a Remaining Seats Sales System for regional airlines is developed for passengers in the potential layer, which has been applied. The sales trend is analyzed from two aspects of sales volume and average fare. Practice has shown that the RM method and the developed application system have reached desired performances. Sales trend also has shown that the behavior characteristics and scale of the potential layer are consistent with the conclusion of the paper.
对收益管理理论的内涵作了全面的分析。从收益管理的基本概念入手,在传统营销学理论的基础上,总结了收益管理理论产生的市场背景和理论根源。在此基础上,分析了收益管理应用环境变化对收益管理理论应用的影响,提出了收益管理应用研究模型,从而从源头上解决了区域航空市场应用收益管理理论的方法问题。
提出了区域航空市场的旅客分层模型。识别细分市场和选择具有最佳机会的细分市场是现代企业营销工作中最为基础性的工作,航空业也不例外。由于经济发展特征和本地文化特征与国外迥异,区域航空市场呈现出明显不同的特征。本文将社会阶层理论引入区域航空市场的细分分析,结合消费者行为学理论,提出了具有二层架构特征的区域航空市场旅客分层模型,解决了区域航空公司在收益管理理论的应用中面临的最为基础的市场细分问题。
在区域航空市场客源分层的基础上,对区域航空公司收益管理策略进行了分析,提出了适应区域航空市场客源分布特征的区域航空公司定价管理策略和存量管理策略。根据这一分析思路,构建了一个包括市场细分维度在内的收益管理策略分析模型,这一模型的构建有利于区域航空公司以客源分析为基础,在不同的市场发展阶段,应用收益管理的核心原理构建统一的收益管理体系。
建立了区域航空公司航线客流量预测模型。通过对区域航空市场特征的深入研究,总结了影响客流量的各种因素,在此基础上,提出了一个自顶向下逐步分解的航线客流量预测模型,由总体趋势预测,中长期预测和短期预测三部分构成。本文集中探讨了其中的中长期预测子模型和短期预测子模型,并进行了实证研究。
研究了区域航空公司机票动态定价博弈问题。结合区域航空市场的实际情况,对市场份额模型中的效用函数进行了改进,改进后的效用函数特别考虑了航班时刻和品牌竞争因素对客票销售的影响,反映了旅客对航空公司供应产品的价值判断。通过logit品牌选择概率模型与效用函数的结合,定义了不同价格组合下旅客的选择概率。最后通过实例分析了两个航班在采取两种运价博弈时均衡求解的过程。
在应用研究上,针对潜力层旅客,设计并开发了区域航空公司剩余座位销售管理系统并投入应用。本文分析了系统的使用效果,从售票量和平均票价两个方面对销售趋势进行了分析。实践表明,本文提出的收益管理方法及开发的应用系统达到了预期的效果;销售趋势也表明,潜力层的旅客行为特征和旅客规模与本文分析的结论是相符的。
Because of the multidisciplinary characteristics of Revenue Management (RM), there are some difficulties in the application of RM theory in domestic airlines. There is a relatively large gap between Chinese airlines and foreign airlines in the application of RM in civil aviation industry. As known, the air market can be divided into domestic market and international market. On the operation of international airlines, domestic airlines and foreign airlines often face a very similar marketing environment because of the similar constituents of passenger sources. Therefore, the domestic airlines can more easily use the experience of other countries for reference in the implementation of RM on international market, which has been proven in practice. But we should pay attention that the domestic aviation market is much different from foreign aviation market. If the foreign RM technology is applied in the domestic market without any changes, there will be little effectiveness, or even the opposite result is produced exactly. The thesis focuses on the research of regional airlines' RM practices based on domestic airline market by adopting the methods that combining the theoretical research and empirical analysis.
A comprehensive analysis on the connotation of RM theory is given in the article. Beginning with the basic concept of RM, the market background and the theories sources of RM theories is summarized, which is based on traditional marketing theory. And then, the impact of the application environment changes on the application of RM is analyzed, and RM application model is proposed, which solves the methods of the application of RM in the regional airlines.
A passenger hierarchical model of regional airline market is built in the thesis. Market segmentation and market targeting are the most basic work of marketing in modern enterprises, and the airline industry is no exception. Because the economic situation and characteristics of local culture are different, airline market between foreign and domestic is significantly different. The theory of social strata is introduced to market segmentation analysis in regional airline market. With the combination of consumer behavior theory, a market segmentation model which has two-story structure features is proposed for regional airlines, and the most important problem in RM application is solved in regional airlines.
Basing on market segmentation of regional airline market, the strategy of RM in regional airlines is analyzed, and the strategies on price management and inventory management which are Suitable for passenger structure are suggested. According to the analysis, a RM positioning model including the dimension of market segmentation is developed, which is useful for regional airlines to build a unified RM system applying the core principle of RM based on the market segmentation in different stages of market.
A passenger flow forecasting model is built for regional airlines. After studying the characteristics of regional aviation market deeply, the factors affecting passenger traffic is listed. Then, a top-down route traffic forecasting model which has gradual decomposition characteristics is proposed. This model consists of three parts, the overall trend forecasts, medium and long-term forecasts, and short-term forecasts. The medium and long-term forecasting submodel and short-term forecasting submodel is focused on, and an empirical research is carried out.
The dynamic pricing and game problem of regional airlines is studied in the thesis. In view of circumstances of regional airline market, the Utility Function which is the core part of the model of market share is optimized. The improved Utility Function includes the impacts of the flight time and the brand competitive factors on ticket sales particularly, reflecting the value judgment of passengers. Through the combination of the Logit model and Utility Function, the choice probability of passengers in different price combinations is described. Finally, the process for two flights to acquire game equilibrium is described.
In application research, a Remaining Seats Sales System for regional airlines is developed for passengers in the potential layer, which has been applied. The sales trend is analyzed from two aspects of sales volume and average fare. Practice has shown that the RM method and the developed application system have reached desired performances. Sales trend also has shown that the behavior characteristics and scale of the potential layer are consistent with the conclusion of the paper.
引文
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