浙江省经济增长与环境污染关系研究
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摘要
收入的库兹涅茨曲线是指一国经济在发展初期,社会各阶层之间的收入分配差距会随着经济增长而扩大；而当经济发展到一定水平后,收入差别又会逐步缩小。用图形描述出来像倒转的字母U,因此被称为库兹涅茨收入分配“倒U”曲线。与收入库兹涅茨曲线相类似,环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC)是指一个国家或地区的环境质量会随着经济的增长先恶化然后改善,在图形上显示为倒“U”形状。国外很多学者对发达国家和新兴经济体的经济增长和环境污染之间的关系进行了计量回归分析,验证了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在,转折拐点在人均GDP4000—8000美元之间。
改革开放以来,浙江省经济与环境污染都呈现快速增长的趋势,浙江省经济增长与环境污染是否也存在国际经验中的倒U形环境库兹涅茨曲线则不得而知。在此背景下,本文以浙江省为例,基于其1981—2009年的废水(工业废水、生活废水)、废气(二氧化硫、工业粉尘和烟尘)和固体废弃物的年度“三废”排放数据,通过标准化办法计算反映浙江省总体污染水平的综合污染指数,并在对数据进行单位根检验、平稳性检验和因果关系检验等严格检验的基础上,建立由环境污染和产出并包含经济增长的规模效应、产业结构变动的结构效应、技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应等若干控制变量的联立方程模型,检验浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线是否符合国际经验的倒U形状,用因素分解法定量研究影响浙江省环境污染的经济增长的规模效应、产业结构变动的结构效应、科技进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应。
本文的主要结论是：浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈“N”形,即随着浙江省经济增长和人均GDP的增加,浙江省环境污染先上升而后个别年份出现短暂微弱的下降,然后又呈上升的趋势,并非国际经验中的先上升而后下降的倒U形状,也没有出现环境污染下降的拐点,我们推测这是因为浙江省改革开放以来的经济增长和工业化进程体现出不同于发达国家经济增长的特点,使得浙江省并未出现倒U形环境库兹涅茨曲线。计量回归分析和因素分解法结果表明,造成浙江省环境污染上升的主要原因是浙江省经济快速增长带来的规模效应和产业结构变动的结构效应(工业占GDP比重和工业内部重工业比重上升),而技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应则起着改善浙江省环境质量的作用。但由于改革开放以来浙江省经济的增长速度大大快于发达国家同期的经济增长速度,工业化进程加速推进,重工业比重不断提升,使得经济增长的规模效应和产业结构变动的结构效应对污染加重的影响之和大于技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应对污染改善的影响之和,使得当前浙江省整体污染仍呈上升趋势,未出现污染下降的拐点,这也是浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线没有出现国际经验中倒U形拐点的原因。因此,加速产业结构升级,推进新型工业化,同时发挥更大的技术进步的技术效应和环保政策的政策效应,是实现浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点、改善环境质量的必要条件。
本文研究结论还发现,环境污染对浙江省经济增长起着负面的影响,即环境污染的加剧最终会阻碍浙江省经济的进一步增长,因而西方国家“先污染,后治理”的道路不适合浙江省实情,浙江省只能走经济与环境协调发展的新型工业化道路,在经济发展的同时改善环境质量。
Income Kuznets Curve refers to a country's economy in the early stage of development, all sectors of society between the income distribution gap along with the economic growth and expansion; and when the economy develops to a certain level, and gradually narrowing the income difference. Described with graphics like inverted letter U, it was known as the Kuznets income allocates" pour U curve. With the reflection of income gap and economic growth in the Kuznets curve is similar to the environment, Kuznets curve (Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC) refers to a country or a region's environmental quality along with the economic growth worsen first then improved, i.e. at the early stage of economic development stage, the environmental quality along with the economic growth shows exasperate trend, when the economy development to a higher stage, environmental quality will be as economic growth shows improving trend, in the graphic display for the inverted "U" shape. Many foreign scholars of developed countries and emerging economies, the experience and data validation environment Kuznets curve exists, the turning point in GDP4000of average per capita-$8000.
Since reforming and opening, Zhejiang province economy presents the state of rapid growth, but at the same time, the pollution of the environment also is in ceaseless aggravate, has international experience in the shape of an inverted U environment of the Kuznets curve can make nothing of it. Under this background, this paper takes Zhejiang Province as an example, based on the1981-2009wastewater (industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, exhaust gas (sulfur dioxide), industrial dust and soot) and solid waste annual discharge of "three wastes" data, through the standardization of the method for calculating the reflection of Zhejiang Province the overall pollution level of comprehensive pollution index, and in on the data unit root test, stability test and causality test based on strict inspection, created by environmental pollution and output and contains growth scale effect, structure effect, the change of industrial structure of technical progress and technical effect of government environmental policy to eliminate the effect of several control variables of the model of simultaneous equations, inspection Zhejiang Province Environmental Kuznets curve is consistent with the international experience of inverted U shape, of Zhejiang province economy growth and environment pollution the two-way relationship between the factor decomposition method, and quantitative study of effect of environmental Kuznets curve of Zhejiang province economic growth, the scale effect of changes in the industrial structure effect, progress of science and technology effect and policy of governmental environmental protection elimination of effect.
The main conclusion is:Zhejiang province economy growth and environment pollution in environment between Kuznets curve showed "N" shape, with the economic growth of Zhejiang province and GDP of average per capita increases, Zhejiang province environmental pollution increase first and then individual years short weak decline, and then rise, is not the international experience in the first the rise and decline of the inverted U shape, and no environmental pollution falling inflection point, we speculate that this is because Zhejiang province since the reform and opening up economic growth and industrialization process reflects the differs from the developed country economy grows, make Zhejiang province did not appear in the shape of an inverted U environment of the Kuznets curve. Regression analysis and factor decomposition method the results show that, Zhejiang province environmental pollution caused by rising is the main cause of the rapid economic growth of Zhejiang province the scale effect of changes in the industrial structure and the structure effect (proportion of industry in GDP and industrial interior heavy industry proportion rises), and technical progress of technology and the effect of government environmental policy to eliminate the effect of play to improve environmental quality of Zhejiang province's role. But since the reform and opening up the economic growth of Zhejiang province much faster than developed countries during the same period of economic growth rate, of industrialized process accelerate, the proportion of heavy industry promotes ceaselessly, make the economic growth effect of scale and the change of industrial structure the structure effect on the pollution impact and greater than technological progress technological effect and environmental policy to eliminate the effect of pollution improvement effects and current Zhejiang Province, makes the overall pollution still shows ascendant trend, no pollution falling inflection point, this is also in Zhejiang Province Environmental Kuznets curve does not appear in the international experience of inverted U shape the inflection point of the reason. Accordingly, accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure, advance new-style industrialization, also play a greater technical progress technology effect and environmental protection policy to eliminate the effect, it is to realize Zhejiang Province Environmental Kuznets turning point, improve the quality of the environment is necessary condition.
The conclusions of this study also found that, the environmental pollution on the economic growth of Zhejiang province plays a negative effect, namely, the aggravation of environmental pollution will eventually hinder the further growth of the economy in Zhejiang Province, the western country "pollute first, administer after" road is not suitable for Zhejiang province the truth, Zhejiang province can only take the harmonious development of environment and economy of new-style industrialization road, economic development and improve the quality of the environment.
改革开放以来,浙江省经济与环境污染都呈现快速增长的趋势,浙江省经济增长与环境污染是否也存在国际经验中的倒U形环境库兹涅茨曲线则不得而知。在此背景下,本文以浙江省为例,基于其1981—2009年的废水(工业废水、生活废水)、废气(二氧化硫、工业粉尘和烟尘)和固体废弃物的年度“三废”排放数据,通过标准化办法计算反映浙江省总体污染水平的综合污染指数,并在对数据进行单位根检验、平稳性检验和因果关系检验等严格检验的基础上,建立由环境污染和产出并包含经济增长的规模效应、产业结构变动的结构效应、技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应等若干控制变量的联立方程模型,检验浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线是否符合国际经验的倒U形状,用因素分解法定量研究影响浙江省环境污染的经济增长的规模效应、产业结构变动的结构效应、科技进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应。
本文的主要结论是：浙江省经济增长与环境污染之间的环境库兹涅茨曲线呈“N”形,即随着浙江省经济增长和人均GDP的增加,浙江省环境污染先上升而后个别年份出现短暂微弱的下降,然后又呈上升的趋势,并非国际经验中的先上升而后下降的倒U形状,也没有出现环境污染下降的拐点,我们推测这是因为浙江省改革开放以来的经济增长和工业化进程体现出不同于发达国家经济增长的特点,使得浙江省并未出现倒U形环境库兹涅茨曲线。计量回归分析和因素分解法结果表明,造成浙江省环境污染上升的主要原因是浙江省经济快速增长带来的规模效应和产业结构变动的结构效应(工业占GDP比重和工业内部重工业比重上升),而技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应则起着改善浙江省环境质量的作用。但由于改革开放以来浙江省经济的增长速度大大快于发达国家同期的经济增长速度,工业化进程加速推进,重工业比重不断提升,使得经济增长的规模效应和产业结构变动的结构效应对污染加重的影响之和大于技术进步的技术效应和政府环保政策的政策效应对污染改善的影响之和,使得当前浙江省整体污染仍呈上升趋势,未出现污染下降的拐点,这也是浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线没有出现国际经验中倒U形拐点的原因。因此,加速产业结构升级,推进新型工业化,同时发挥更大的技术进步的技术效应和环保政策的政策效应,是实现浙江省环境库兹涅茨曲线转折点、改善环境质量的必要条件。
本文研究结论还发现,环境污染对浙江省经济增长起着负面的影响,即环境污染的加剧最终会阻碍浙江省经济的进一步增长,因而西方国家“先污染,后治理”的道路不适合浙江省实情,浙江省只能走经济与环境协调发展的新型工业化道路,在经济发展的同时改善环境质量。
Income Kuznets Curve refers to a country's economy in the early stage of development, all sectors of society between the income distribution gap along with the economic growth and expansion; and when the economy develops to a certain level, and gradually narrowing the income difference. Described with graphics like inverted letter U, it was known as the Kuznets income allocates" pour U curve. With the reflection of income gap and economic growth in the Kuznets curve is similar to the environment, Kuznets curve (Environmental Kuznets Curve, EKC) refers to a country or a region's environmental quality along with the economic growth worsen first then improved, i.e. at the early stage of economic development stage, the environmental quality along with the economic growth shows exasperate trend, when the economy development to a higher stage, environmental quality will be as economic growth shows improving trend, in the graphic display for the inverted "U" shape. Many foreign scholars of developed countries and emerging economies, the experience and data validation environment Kuznets curve exists, the turning point in GDP4000of average per capita-$8000.
Since reforming and opening, Zhejiang province economy presents the state of rapid growth, but at the same time, the pollution of the environment also is in ceaseless aggravate, has international experience in the shape of an inverted U environment of the Kuznets curve can make nothing of it. Under this background, this paper takes Zhejiang Province as an example, based on the1981-2009wastewater (industrial wastewater, domestic wastewater, exhaust gas (sulfur dioxide), industrial dust and soot) and solid waste annual discharge of "three wastes" data, through the standardization of the method for calculating the reflection of Zhejiang Province the overall pollution level of comprehensive pollution index, and in on the data unit root test, stability test and causality test based on strict inspection, created by environmental pollution and output and contains growth scale effect, structure effect, the change of industrial structure of technical progress and technical effect of government environmental policy to eliminate the effect of several control variables of the model of simultaneous equations, inspection Zhejiang Province Environmental Kuznets curve is consistent with the international experience of inverted U shape, of Zhejiang province economy growth and environment pollution the two-way relationship between the factor decomposition method, and quantitative study of effect of environmental Kuznets curve of Zhejiang province economic growth, the scale effect of changes in the industrial structure effect, progress of science and technology effect and policy of governmental environmental protection elimination of effect.
The main conclusion is:Zhejiang province economy growth and environment pollution in environment between Kuznets curve showed "N" shape, with the economic growth of Zhejiang province and GDP of average per capita increases, Zhejiang province environmental pollution increase first and then individual years short weak decline, and then rise, is not the international experience in the first the rise and decline of the inverted U shape, and no environmental pollution falling inflection point, we speculate that this is because Zhejiang province since the reform and opening up economic growth and industrialization process reflects the differs from the developed country economy grows, make Zhejiang province did not appear in the shape of an inverted U environment of the Kuznets curve. Regression analysis and factor decomposition method the results show that, Zhejiang province environmental pollution caused by rising is the main cause of the rapid economic growth of Zhejiang province the scale effect of changes in the industrial structure and the structure effect (proportion of industry in GDP and industrial interior heavy industry proportion rises), and technical progress of technology and the effect of government environmental policy to eliminate the effect of play to improve environmental quality of Zhejiang province's role. But since the reform and opening up the economic growth of Zhejiang province much faster than developed countries during the same period of economic growth rate, of industrialized process accelerate, the proportion of heavy industry promotes ceaselessly, make the economic growth effect of scale and the change of industrial structure the structure effect on the pollution impact and greater than technological progress technological effect and environmental policy to eliminate the effect of pollution improvement effects and current Zhejiang Province, makes the overall pollution still shows ascendant trend, no pollution falling inflection point, this is also in Zhejiang Province Environmental Kuznets curve does not appear in the international experience of inverted U shape the inflection point of the reason. Accordingly, accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure, advance new-style industrialization, also play a greater technical progress technology effect and environmental protection policy to eliminate the effect, it is to realize Zhejiang Province Environmental Kuznets turning point, improve the quality of the environment is necessary condition.
The conclusions of this study also found that, the environmental pollution on the economic growth of Zhejiang province plays a negative effect, namely, the aggravation of environmental pollution will eventually hinder the further growth of the economy in Zhejiang Province, the western country "pollute first, administer after" road is not suitable for Zhejiang province the truth, Zhejiang province can only take the harmonious development of environment and economy of new-style industrialization road, economic development and improve the quality of the environment.
引文
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①对于资本存量的测算,本文对于浙江省物质资本存罐的计算也采用普戈登史密斯(Goldsmith)在1951年开创的永续盘存法。
②本文对浙江省总人力资本存最采用每万人口在校大学生人数近似代替。
③张军、吴桂英、张吉鹏： 《中国省际物质资本存量估算：1952-2000》[J], 《经济研究》2004年第10期。
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