区域人口、资源、环境、经济与社会可持续发展的评价研究
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摘要
本文通过研究可持续发展及区域可持续发展的基本理论问题,主要探讨了以下几方面的内容:一,设定区域可持续发展评价指标体系,具体构建人口、资源、环境、经济与社会系统的指标框架;二,运用主成分分析方法,对反映各系统发展水平的指标体系进行评估,确定各系统的综合发展水平;三,根据综合发展水平,利用统计学中的回归分析方法,确定各系统间的协调发展模型,依据协调发展模型中系统间的比例关系,计算出协调系数进而构建协调系数体系;然后通过把协调水平和发展水平融为一体的静态和动态两个指标“协调发展系数”和“协调发展趋势指数”来衡量一个地区的协调发展状况。本文的主要创新点就是把社会子系统纳入到对区域可持续发展水平的进行综合考察的“协调发展系数”和“协调发展趋势指数”之中,使对区域可持续发展水平的考察更加全面,从某种意义上讲对社会子系统发展水平的研究更加贴近于广大人民群众的日常生活。
主要通过运用SPSS软件、统计学原理和定量分析等数学手段对宁夏自治区统计年鉴的各项数据进行了比较全面的实证分析,重点研究了五个系统之间的协调发展情况,并根据分析结果提出了促进宁夏自治区可持续发展的若干政策建议。从而使研究结果能够在地方政府制定构建和谐社会的各项政策时起到一定的参考意义,同时通过引入“协调发展趋势指数”来准确判定某个地区每年的可持续发展工作是前进还是倒退了。
Through studying the sustainable development and the region sustainable development elementary theory, this article mainly has discussed the following several aspect content: First, establish the region sustainable development evaluating indicator system, construct the target framework of population, the resources, the environment, the economical and the social system specifically; Second, utilize principal components analysis method to reflect the indicator system carried on the appraisal for various systems level of development to determine various systems' integrated development level; Third, according to the integrated development level, use the regression analysis method to determine coordinated development model between various systems', in the basis of coordinated development model proportional relationship between system's, calculate the coordinated coefficient and construct coordinated coefficient system; Then weigh an local the coordinated development condition through the intigration of the static indicator---“the coordinated development coefficient”and“the dynamic indicator-- the coordinated development tendency index”. The main innovation of this article is integrate the social subsystem into“the coordinated development coefficient”and“the coordinated development tendency index”, to make a more comprehensive inspection of the region sustainable development level and a closer draw to the social subsystem level of development's research in broad masses' daily life.
Mainly through using mathematics methods and SPSS software, we have carried on the quite comprehensive empirical analysis to Ningxia autonomous region statistical annual's each data, have studied between five system's coordinated development situations with emphasis, and have proposed certain policy suggestion to the Ningxia autonomous region. This sends the Local authority certain reference on formulating harmonious society, and determines every year's sustainable development work is advanced or backed up through the introduction of“the coordinated development tendency index”.
主要通过运用SPSS软件、统计学原理和定量分析等数学手段对宁夏自治区统计年鉴的各项数据进行了比较全面的实证分析,重点研究了五个系统之间的协调发展情况,并根据分析结果提出了促进宁夏自治区可持续发展的若干政策建议。从而使研究结果能够在地方政府制定构建和谐社会的各项政策时起到一定的参考意义,同时通过引入“协调发展趋势指数”来准确判定某个地区每年的可持续发展工作是前进还是倒退了。
Through studying the sustainable development and the region sustainable development elementary theory, this article mainly has discussed the following several aspect content: First, establish the region sustainable development evaluating indicator system, construct the target framework of population, the resources, the environment, the economical and the social system specifically; Second, utilize principal components analysis method to reflect the indicator system carried on the appraisal for various systems level of development to determine various systems' integrated development level; Third, according to the integrated development level, use the regression analysis method to determine coordinated development model between various systems', in the basis of coordinated development model proportional relationship between system's, calculate the coordinated coefficient and construct coordinated coefficient system; Then weigh an local the coordinated development condition through the intigration of the static indicator---“the coordinated development coefficient”and“the dynamic indicator-- the coordinated development tendency index”. The main innovation of this article is integrate the social subsystem into“the coordinated development coefficient”and“the coordinated development tendency index”, to make a more comprehensive inspection of the region sustainable development level and a closer draw to the social subsystem level of development's research in broad masses' daily life.
Mainly through using mathematics methods and SPSS software, we have carried on the quite comprehensive empirical analysis to Ningxia autonomous region statistical annual's each data, have studied between five system's coordinated development situations with emphasis, and have proposed certain policy suggestion to the Ningxia autonomous region. This sends the Local authority certain reference on formulating harmonious society, and determines every year's sustainable development work is advanced or backed up through the introduction of“the coordinated development tendency index”.
引文
①王伟中:《地方可持续发展导论》,商务印书馆,1999年
②Deparunent of Enviromaent. indicators of Sustamabic Development for the Unitod Kingdom.London
③邱东:《多指标综合评价方法的系统分析),中国统计出版社,1991年;
④何晓群:《现代统计分析方法与应用》,中国人民大学出版社,1998年。
⑤世界环境与发展委员会:《我们共同的未来),世界知识出版社,1989.205-205页. ⑥
⑦王伟中:《地方可持续发展导论》,商务印书馆,1999年,36-37页.
⑧王维国:《协调发展的理论与方法研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2000年。
⑨王维国:《论国民经济协调系数体系的建立》,《统计研究》,1995 (4)
⑩庞皓、谢胜智:《再论评价综合经济效益的多目标规划方法》,《财经科学》,1983年第A期。
[1]United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development.1996.Indicators of Sustainable Development:Framework and Methodologies [R].New York:United Nations Publication
[2]Cocklin C R.Methodological problems in evaluating sustainability[J]. Environment Conservation,1989,16(4):27-32
[3]Barrett,S.Economica Growth and Enviroment Preservation,Journal of Environment Economics and Management, 1992(23)
[4]World Bank. Word Bank Develops New System to Measure Wealth of Nations [M] WashingtonDC.1995
[5]Robert U.Ayres.Statistical Measures of Unsustainability,Elsevier Science Publisher B.V 1996
[6]United Nations. System of National Accounts 1993[M]. New York.United Nations
[7]Word Bank:Monitoring Environment Progress:A Report on Work in Progress. Washington DC,1995
[8]Moffatt I. On measuring sustainable development indicators[J]. The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology.1994:102-112
[9]European Report:ECO-Technology a Key to Sustainable Development, 2002
[10]Cordon Mitchell:Problems and Sustainable DevelopmentIndicator,Sustainable Development(1996)
[11]M zos Istv: The Challenge of Sustainable Development and the Culture of Substantive Equality,Monthly Review (New York N.Y)
[12] United Nations Government Views on the Relationships between Population and Environment[M].New York.1997
[13]Cai.F.D.Wang & Y.Du.Regional Disparity and Economic Growth in China,the impact of Labor Market Distortions China Economic Review,2002
[14]Brain R. Copeland. M. Scott Tailor. Trade,Spatial Separation,and the Environment, Journal of International Economics 47(1999)
[15]曾嵘.人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的多目标集成模型及其应用[D].北京:中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,2001:43-63
[16]世界环境与发展委员会.我们共同的未来.[G].长春,吉林人民出版社,1997:19～22
[17]中国21世纪议程.[M].北京,中国环境科学出版社,1994
[18]刘培哲.可持续发展理论与《中国21世纪议程》[A]《中国可持续发展指标体系研究》课题组,1997:1-11
[19]中国环境保护21世纪议程.北京:中国环境科学出版社.1995:121-125
[20]高红莉,张海亮.我国干旱区发展可持续性探讨2004.地域研究与开发,2004
[21]王维国.论国民经济协调系数体系的建立,《统计研究》,1995(3)
[22]范金.可持续发展下的最优经济增长,经济管理出版社,2002年版
[23]刘培哲.可持续发展理论与中国21世纪议程,气象出版社,2001年版
[24]申金山.城市基础设施与社会经济协调发展的定量评价方法与应用,《城市环境与城市生态》,2000(5)
[25]周敏.可持续发展的协调性特征及其描述,科学管理研究,2000(1)
[26]洪银兴.可持续发展经济学,商务印书馆,2000年版
[27]刘立新.西北地区水资源的开发与科学管,当代经济科学,2000,(9)
[28]席玉英.可持续发展定量判别模式研究,《中国人口,资源与环境》,2000
[29]关晓涵,顾培亮.系统理论在可持续发展中的应用研究[J].科学管理研究,1999,17(3):41-45
[30]李禄胜.西部生态环境建设存在的问题及对策分析[J].绿色经济,2002(4)
[31]王鉴.西部民族地区教育均衡发展的新战略[J].民族研究,2002(6)
[32]胡锦涛.在2004年中央经济工作会议上的讲话〔G〕新华网.2004-12-5
[33]孙长春.关于加快宁夏生态环境建设的思考宁夏农林科技2002(2)
[34]张炜,龚玉梅.对宁夏生态环境建设情况的调查与建议宁夏科技2002(3)
[35]张晓东,池天河.中国省级区域经济与环境协调度分析,地理研究,2001(4)
[36]鲁晋.宁夏可持续发展中的生态环境问题及其对策宁夏大学学报(人文社会科学版)第22卷2000年第3期(总第90期)
[37]汪应洛,蒋正华.人口与经济协调发展规划模型[A].中国经济的发展与模型[C].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1990:140-146
[38]何晓群.《现代统计分析方法与应用》,中国人民大学出版社.1998年版
[39]李志辉,罗平.SPSS统计分析教程[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005
[40]申金山,宋建民,关柯.城市基础设施与社会经济协调发展的定量评价方法与应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,2000:10-12
[41]潘新华.论西部地区人口、资源、环境与经济的协调发展[J].开发研究,2003,(15):41-43
[42]吴文恒,牛叔文.甘肃省人口与资源环境耦合的演进分析[J].中国人口科学,2006,(2):81-86
[43]陈孝胜.西部地区人口、资源、环境与经济可持续发展对策[J].经济论坛,2004,(19):21-22
[44]秦大河,张坤民,牛文元.中国人口资源环境与可持续发展[M].北京:新华出版社,2002
[45]冯强.西部地区扶贫开发问题综述[N].经济日报,2001-08-13
[46]毛锋,邹积颖.论中国的人口控制与可持续发展[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2001(5)
[47]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.中国可持续发展研究报告(2000).北京:科学出版社,2001
②Deparunent of Enviromaent. indicators of Sustamabic Development for the Unitod Kingdom.London
③邱东:《多指标综合评价方法的系统分析),中国统计出版社,1991年;
④何晓群:《现代统计分析方法与应用》,中国人民大学出版社,1998年。
⑤世界环境与发展委员会:《我们共同的未来),世界知识出版社,1989.205-205页. ⑥
⑦王伟中:《地方可持续发展导论》,商务印书馆,1999年,36-37页.
⑧王维国:《协调发展的理论与方法研究》,中国财政经济出版社,2000年。
⑨王维国:《论国民经济协调系数体系的建立》,《统计研究》,1995 (4)
⑩庞皓、谢胜智:《再论评价综合经济效益的多目标规划方法》,《财经科学》,1983年第A期。
[1]United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development.1996.Indicators of Sustainable Development:Framework and Methodologies [R].New York:United Nations Publication
[2]Cocklin C R.Methodological problems in evaluating sustainability[J]. Environment Conservation,1989,16(4):27-32
[3]Barrett,S.Economica Growth and Enviroment Preservation,Journal of Environment Economics and Management, 1992(23)
[4]World Bank. Word Bank Develops New System to Measure Wealth of Nations [M] WashingtonDC.1995
[5]Robert U.Ayres.Statistical Measures of Unsustainability,Elsevier Science Publisher B.V 1996
[6]United Nations. System of National Accounts 1993[M]. New York.United Nations
[7]Word Bank:Monitoring Environment Progress:A Report on Work in Progress. Washington DC,1995
[8]Moffatt I. On measuring sustainable development indicators[J]. The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology.1994:102-112
[9]European Report:ECO-Technology a Key to Sustainable Development, 2002
[10]Cordon Mitchell:Problems and Sustainable DevelopmentIndicator,Sustainable Development(1996)
[11]M zos Istv: The Challenge of Sustainable Development and the Culture of Substantive Equality,Monthly Review (New York N.Y)
[12] United Nations Government Views on the Relationships between Population and Environment[M].New York.1997
[13]Cai.F.D.Wang & Y.Du.Regional Disparity and Economic Growth in China,the impact of Labor Market Distortions China Economic Review,2002
[14]Brain R. Copeland. M. Scott Tailor. Trade,Spatial Separation,and the Environment, Journal of International Economics 47(1999)
[15]曾嵘.人口、资源、环境与经济协调发展的多目标集成模型及其应用[D].北京:中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,2001:43-63
[16]世界环境与发展委员会.我们共同的未来.[G].长春,吉林人民出版社,1997:19～22
[17]中国21世纪议程.[M].北京,中国环境科学出版社,1994
[18]刘培哲.可持续发展理论与《中国21世纪议程》[A]《中国可持续发展指标体系研究》课题组,1997:1-11
[19]中国环境保护21世纪议程.北京:中国环境科学出版社.1995:121-125
[20]高红莉,张海亮.我国干旱区发展可持续性探讨2004.地域研究与开发,2004
[21]王维国.论国民经济协调系数体系的建立,《统计研究》,1995(3)
[22]范金.可持续发展下的最优经济增长,经济管理出版社,2002年版
[23]刘培哲.可持续发展理论与中国21世纪议程,气象出版社,2001年版
[24]申金山.城市基础设施与社会经济协调发展的定量评价方法与应用,《城市环境与城市生态》,2000(5)
[25]周敏.可持续发展的协调性特征及其描述,科学管理研究,2000(1)
[26]洪银兴.可持续发展经济学,商务印书馆,2000年版
[27]刘立新.西北地区水资源的开发与科学管,当代经济科学,2000,(9)
[28]席玉英.可持续发展定量判别模式研究,《中国人口,资源与环境》,2000
[29]关晓涵,顾培亮.系统理论在可持续发展中的应用研究[J].科学管理研究,1999,17(3):41-45
[30]李禄胜.西部生态环境建设存在的问题及对策分析[J].绿色经济,2002(4)
[31]王鉴.西部民族地区教育均衡发展的新战略[J].民族研究,2002(6)
[32]胡锦涛.在2004年中央经济工作会议上的讲话〔G〕新华网.2004-12-5
[33]孙长春.关于加快宁夏生态环境建设的思考宁夏农林科技2002(2)
[34]张炜,龚玉梅.对宁夏生态环境建设情况的调查与建议宁夏科技2002(3)
[35]张晓东,池天河.中国省级区域经济与环境协调度分析,地理研究,2001(4)
[36]鲁晋.宁夏可持续发展中的生态环境问题及其对策宁夏大学学报(人文社会科学版)第22卷2000年第3期(总第90期)
[37]汪应洛,蒋正华.人口与经济协调发展规划模型[A].中国经济的发展与模型[C].北京:中国财政经济出版社,1990:140-146
[38]何晓群.《现代统计分析方法与应用》,中国人民大学出版社.1998年版
[39]李志辉,罗平.SPSS统计分析教程[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005
[40]申金山,宋建民,关柯.城市基础设施与社会经济协调发展的定量评价方法与应用[J].城市环境与城市生态,2000:10-12
[41]潘新华.论西部地区人口、资源、环境与经济的协调发展[J].开发研究,2003,(15):41-43
[42]吴文恒,牛叔文.甘肃省人口与资源环境耦合的演进分析[J].中国人口科学,2006,(2):81-86
[43]陈孝胜.西部地区人口、资源、环境与经济可持续发展对策[J].经济论坛,2004,(19):21-22
[44]秦大河,张坤民,牛文元.中国人口资源环境与可持续发展[M].北京:新华出版社,2002
[45]冯强.西部地区扶贫开发问题综述[N].经济日报,2001-08-13
[46]毛锋,邹积颖.论中国的人口控制与可持续发展[J].北京大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2001(5)
[47]中国科学院可持续发展研究组.中国可持续发展研究报告(2000).北京:科学出版社,2001