金融集聚的演化机理与效应研究
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摘要
近年来，在经济全球化和信息技术的推动下，国际金融市场迅猛发展，国际资本流动不断加快，越来越多的金融机构采用企业间协调的方式来组织交易和生产活动，金融的集聚效应逐渐显现，一些学者也开始关注金融集聚的研究。然而，金融集聚的演化机理和效应一直是研究的一个薄弱环节，在为数不多的金融集聚问题的研究中大多是在一般产业集群理论分析框架下考察金融集聚发展，或者简单的沿用制造业集聚的分析范式，方法的适用性和针对性需要进一步考量。同时，以往的金融集聚研究多侧重于集聚现象的理论研究，缺乏详实的数据资料和计量分析结果作为验证，对金融集聚的成因、集聚区集聚程度的测度、金融集聚的演化过程及其对地区经济和产业发展的效应等问题仍然没有解决。在此背景下，运用定性、定量与空间分析综合集成的方法，探索金融集聚形成和发展的演化机理、演化路径及其集聚效应是对金融集聚研究的补充与完善，也可为宏观决策层提供决策的理论依据和数据支撑。
本文结合经济地理学、空间经济学和系统动力学等相关理论，在对金融集聚进行基本理论研究的基础上，根据金融业的特征，构建金融集聚演化机理及其效应的分析框架，并结合我国实际进行应用研究。具体体现在以下七个方面：
第一，在系统梳理国内外学者对金融集聚内涵、集聚形成机理、集聚演化和集聚效应等相关研究成果的基础上，结合金融业发展的特点，对金融集聚演化的相关概念进行界定，并对金融集聚的本质、特征、演化模式、演化动力及其与制造业集聚的区别等基本理论进行研究。
第二，在比较分析不同产业集聚测度方法的基础上，从金融规模、金融市场和金融机构三个方面，构建金融集聚程度的综合评价指标体系，综合分析金融业在空间上的聚集程度和动态变化特征。分析表明，现阶段我国金融集聚表现出较大的空间差异性，金融集聚度呈现出东部往中部和西部地区递减的态势，金融集聚度较高的省域主要有北京、广东、上海、浙江和江苏等地，西部地区的贵州、宁夏、青海、西藏等省域金融业发展相对落后，金融集聚度不高。
第三，根据金融集聚演化动力的分析结果，构建金融集聚演化机理空间面板计量模型和地理加权回归模型，实证结果表明规模经济、政策环境、行业竞争和知识溢出对各区域的金融集聚影响比较显著。然后，构建金融集聚演化过程的Logistic模型，判断金融业整体的演化趋势。研究发现我国的金融集聚系统即将处于快速成长期，现阶段仅有海南省尚处于金融集聚发展的孕育期，北京市在2006年率先进入了金融集聚发展的成长期，而在2012年左右广东、北京和福建省将陆续进入金融集聚发展的成熟期。
第四，根据金融集聚演化机理研究结果，建立金融集聚演化路径的系统动力学模型，模拟仿真金融集聚的演化过程。通过运用广东省的数据对仿真模型进行检验，发现金融集聚演化路径系统能较为真实地刻画金融集聚的演化过程。在此基础上，对中国各省域的金融集聚趋势进行模拟仿真，结果表明北京、广东、上海等地的金融集聚程度在今后几年保持在全国的前列，而河北、陕西和山东等省的金融集聚度位于全国的第二梯队，西部地区的青海、西藏和广西等地金融集聚度处于比较低的水平。进一步，以广东省为例，分析政策变化对区域金融集聚的影响，结果显示政府消费支出的增加和区域基础设施水平的完善均会有效地促进区域金融的集聚。
第五，在分析金融集聚对区域经济增长作用机理的基础上，建立动态面板模型考察金融集聚对区域经济增长的动态溢出效应，发现区域经济增长水平的一阶滞后量和资本投入对区域经济的增长具有正向推动作用，而金融集聚水平与劳动力投入对区域的经济增长表现出负的抑制作用。进一步，实证检验金融集聚对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应，结果表明，省域的金融集聚水平在空间滞后模型和空间误差模型中的无固定效应、空间固定效应和时间固定效应下对区域经济增长水平均有着显著的正向溢出作用。但从各变量的局部影响来看，部分中西部地区如山西、内蒙古、贵州等地，金融集聚对区域的经济增长表现出负向的溢出效应。最后，构建门限面板回归模型，实证得到金融集聚对区域经济增长的门限效应存在，其门限值为4.0639。
第六，在分析金融集聚对区域产业结构作用机理的基础上，从空间的角度分析金融集聚与产业结构的空间关联，研究表明产业结构在空间分布上具有明显的空间正自相关关系。在纳入空间效应的前提下，测算了金融集聚与产业结构、制造业竞争力的关联程度，实证得到省域的金融集聚水平在空间误差模型中的无固定效应、空间固定效应和时间固定效应下对区域产业结构有着显著的正向溢出作用。通过构造联立方程组，发现金融集聚和制造业集聚存在空间联动效应。
第七，根据系统动力学的政策模拟和金融集聚的空间效应分析等研究结果，结合我国金融集聚发展现状，并针对制约金融集聚发展的因素，提出促进金融业发展的相关政策建议和配套措施。
In recent years, as globalization and IT promotion, the internatio nal financemarket deve lops so fast and speeds up the capita l flows globally. Mote and morefinanc ia l institution use enterprise cooperatio n to orga nize transactio n and production,so agglo meration effect of service appears and some scho lars have focused on thefinanc ia l agglo meratio n effect. But the evo lution and effects of financ ia lagglo meratio n effects are vulnerable yet. Research of financ ia l agglo meratio n isalways focused on the analytical frameworks of general industrial groups’ conceptionor simply by a na lyzing paradigms of manufacturing a gglo meration. So it is needed torevaluate adoptio n and target of the methodolo gy. Meanwhile, the former financ ia lagglo meratio n research just touched on the surface of theoretica l research because oflack of the detailed materia l and data, let a lo ne the proved analytica l measureme ntresults. Therefore, the iss ue such as the b irth o f fina nc ial a gglo meration, themeasure ment on the c lustering ability of the agglo meration areas, the evolution offinanc ia l agglo meration and the effect on the loca l finance and industria l developme nt,have not discovered yet. Then, how to use syste matic ways by qua lity, q uantity andspace metrics to explore the financ ia l agglo meration birth and deve lopment issupple mentary and improve ment for financ ia l agglo meration res earch and also thetheoretical ground and data support for macro decision.
Taking into account the econo mic geography, spatia l economics and s ystemdyna mics, this thes is investigates the features of finance, establis hes the financ ia lagglo meratio n evo lutio n mec hanis m and effect analys is fra mework on the basis of thefundamental theories of financial agglomeration and China’s realities. It could bereflected in the following seven aspects:
First, on the basis of syste matically rationa lizing the research achieve ments ofboth domestic and internationa l sc holars on financ ia l agglo meratio n connotation,mecha nis m, evolution a nd effect, it defines the re leva nt concepts of financ ia lagglo meratio n and conducts research on the essence and characteristics of financ ia lagglo meratio n as well as its difference fro m other ind ustrial agglo meration byconsidering the features of the development of financial industry.
Second, by comparing the measureme nt of d ifferent ind ustrial agglo meration, itestablis hes the comprehe ns ive e va luation index s yste m of financ ia l a gglo meration degree and assesses the spatial c luster degree and dyna mic change characteristics offinance fro m the perspective of financ ia l scale, market and institutio ns. The analys isshows that, currently, the fina nc ial agglo meratio n varies fro m each other in terms ofthe spatial d iversity. The financ ia l agglo meration degree diminishes fro m the east tomidd le and western China. Be ijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang and J iangs u areall c ities with high degree of fina nc ial a gglo meration while western cities, suc h asGuizho u, Ningxia, Q inghai and Tibet are cities of low degree of financ ia lagglomeration due to their financial backwardness.
Third, according to the analys is results of dyna mic factors of fina nc ialagglo meratio n evo lutio n, the artic le sets up space pane l measureme nt model offinanc ia l cluster evolution mechanis m as well as Geographica lly Weighted Regress ion(GWM). The experiment shows that, scale economy, po licy environme nt, industria lcompetition and knowledge spillo ver ha ve exerted substantial influence on financ ia lagglo meratio n of different regions. Then, it also establis hes the Logistic Model offinanc ia l agglomeration e volutio n process and judges the overall e vo lutio n trends offinance. According to the researches, financ ia l agglo meration syste m of China is inthe rise stage, which is evidenced by the fact that, Ha ina n Province exists in the initia lstage of financ ia l agglo meration system develop ment, Beijing took the lead inentering the growth phase of financ ia l agglo meratio n evolution and Guangdong,Beijing and Fujian province will s uccessive ly step into the mature period of financ ia lagglomeration system development.
Fourth, in light of the research result of fina ncia l agglo meratio n evolutionmecha nis m, it establis hes the systematic dyna mic model of financ ia l agglo merationevolution route and imitates the simulation evo lutio n model of fina nc ial evo lution. Itchecks the simulation model with the data of Guangdong province and finds that thefinanc ia l agglo meration evo lutio n syste m could accurately re flect the evo lutionprocess of financ ia l agglo meration. On this basis, it conducts ana log s imulatio n of thefinanc ia l agglo meratio n trend o f different provinces of China, whic h ind icates thatBeijing, Guangdong and Shangha i will take the lead in terms of financ ia lagglo meratio n degree in China. However, the c luster degrees of Hebei, Shaanxi andShandong reach the second rank ings of China, and cities in western China, such asQingha i, Tibet and Guangxi are in a relative ly low le vel. Furthermore, it takes theexamp le of Gua ngdong province, analyzes the impact of polic y cha nges on re giona lfinanc ia l agglo meratio n and finds that the increase in governme nt spending andimprove ment in regiona l infrastructure are cond ucive to fac ilitating regio nal financ ia l agglomeration.
Fifth, based on the effect of financ ia l agglo meration on regiona l econo micgrowth， it puts forward the dyna mic pane l model and investigates the dyna micspillover effect of fina nc ial agglo meration on regiona l economic growth. The resultsdemo nstrate that the first-order lag qua ntity a nd the capita l input are effective inpromoting regio nal economic growth; however, the financ ia l agglo meration degreeand labor input exert negative inhib iting effect on reg iona l econo mic growth. Thro ughthe experime nt of exa mining the spatia l spillover e ffect of fina ncia l agglo meration onregio na l economic growth, the a uthor finds that, the no n-fixed effect, spatia l fixedeffect and time fixed effect of financ ia l agglomeration o f provinc ial leve l in bothspatia l lag model and spatia l error model ha ve obvious positive spillover bearings onregio na l econo mic growth. From the perspective of local influence of d ifferentvariab les, the financ ia l c luster o f some western regions, inc lud ing Shanxi, Mongo liaand Guizhou, bears negative spillover effect on regio nal economic growth. At last, theemp irical stud ies confirm the existe nce of thresho ld effect of financ ia l a gglo merationon regio na l econo mic growth and obtain the thresho ld va lue of4.0639by establis hingthe threshold panel regression model.
Sixth, by analyzing the mechanism of financial agglomeration’s effect onregio na l industria l structure, it also investigates the spatia l connections betweenfinanc ia l agglomeration and industria l structure fro m the ange l of space. The researchshows that, the ind ustrial structure d ispla ys an obvious spatia l positive auto-correlation re lation in the spatia l d istribution. By means of integrating into thespatia l e ffect, it measures the correlation degree between fina ncia l a gglo meration andindustria l structure and manufacturing competitiveness and verifies the non-fixedeffect, spatia l fixed effect and time fixed effect of financ ia l agglo meration ofprovincia l leve l in spatia l error model ha ve obvious positive spillover bearings onregio na l industria l structure. The deve lopme nt of financ ia l agglo meration isconduc ive to the promotion o f the effective ness of manufacturing ind ustry a nd theenhance ment o f competitive ness. By establis hing the syste m of s imultaneousequations, it finds out the spatia l linka ge effects between fina nc ial a gglo meration andmanufacturing agglomeration.
Seventh, according to the research results of polic y simulation o f dyna mics andthe spatia l effect ana lys is of financ ia l agglo meratio n, it proposes the rele vant polic iessuggestions and supporting measures to promote the deve lopme nt of finance byconsidering the current development status of China’s financial agglomeration and the elements that restrain the development of financial agglomeration.
本文结合经济地理学、空间经济学和系统动力学等相关理论，在对金融集聚进行基本理论研究的基础上，根据金融业的特征，构建金融集聚演化机理及其效应的分析框架，并结合我国实际进行应用研究。具体体现在以下七个方面：
第一，在系统梳理国内外学者对金融集聚内涵、集聚形成机理、集聚演化和集聚效应等相关研究成果的基础上，结合金融业发展的特点，对金融集聚演化的相关概念进行界定，并对金融集聚的本质、特征、演化模式、演化动力及其与制造业集聚的区别等基本理论进行研究。
第二，在比较分析不同产业集聚测度方法的基础上，从金融规模、金融市场和金融机构三个方面，构建金融集聚程度的综合评价指标体系，综合分析金融业在空间上的聚集程度和动态变化特征。分析表明，现阶段我国金融集聚表现出较大的空间差异性，金融集聚度呈现出东部往中部和西部地区递减的态势，金融集聚度较高的省域主要有北京、广东、上海、浙江和江苏等地，西部地区的贵州、宁夏、青海、西藏等省域金融业发展相对落后，金融集聚度不高。
第三，根据金融集聚演化动力的分析结果，构建金融集聚演化机理空间面板计量模型和地理加权回归模型，实证结果表明规模经济、政策环境、行业竞争和知识溢出对各区域的金融集聚影响比较显著。然后，构建金融集聚演化过程的Logistic模型，判断金融业整体的演化趋势。研究发现我国的金融集聚系统即将处于快速成长期，现阶段仅有海南省尚处于金融集聚发展的孕育期，北京市在2006年率先进入了金融集聚发展的成长期，而在2012年左右广东、北京和福建省将陆续进入金融集聚发展的成熟期。
第四，根据金融集聚演化机理研究结果，建立金融集聚演化路径的系统动力学模型，模拟仿真金融集聚的演化过程。通过运用广东省的数据对仿真模型进行检验，发现金融集聚演化路径系统能较为真实地刻画金融集聚的演化过程。在此基础上，对中国各省域的金融集聚趋势进行模拟仿真，结果表明北京、广东、上海等地的金融集聚程度在今后几年保持在全国的前列，而河北、陕西和山东等省的金融集聚度位于全国的第二梯队，西部地区的青海、西藏和广西等地金融集聚度处于比较低的水平。进一步，以广东省为例，分析政策变化对区域金融集聚的影响，结果显示政府消费支出的增加和区域基础设施水平的完善均会有效地促进区域金融的集聚。
第五，在分析金融集聚对区域经济增长作用机理的基础上，建立动态面板模型考察金融集聚对区域经济增长的动态溢出效应，发现区域经济增长水平的一阶滞后量和资本投入对区域经济的增长具有正向推动作用，而金融集聚水平与劳动力投入对区域的经济增长表现出负的抑制作用。进一步，实证检验金融集聚对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应，结果表明，省域的金融集聚水平在空间滞后模型和空间误差模型中的无固定效应、空间固定效应和时间固定效应下对区域经济增长水平均有着显著的正向溢出作用。但从各变量的局部影响来看，部分中西部地区如山西、内蒙古、贵州等地，金融集聚对区域的经济增长表现出负向的溢出效应。最后，构建门限面板回归模型，实证得到金融集聚对区域经济增长的门限效应存在，其门限值为4.0639。
第六，在分析金融集聚对区域产业结构作用机理的基础上，从空间的角度分析金融集聚与产业结构的空间关联，研究表明产业结构在空间分布上具有明显的空间正自相关关系。在纳入空间效应的前提下，测算了金融集聚与产业结构、制造业竞争力的关联程度，实证得到省域的金融集聚水平在空间误差模型中的无固定效应、空间固定效应和时间固定效应下对区域产业结构有着显著的正向溢出作用。通过构造联立方程组，发现金融集聚和制造业集聚存在空间联动效应。
第七，根据系统动力学的政策模拟和金融集聚的空间效应分析等研究结果，结合我国金融集聚发展现状，并针对制约金融集聚发展的因素，提出促进金融业发展的相关政策建议和配套措施。
In recent years, as globalization and IT promotion, the internatio nal financemarket deve lops so fast and speeds up the capita l flows globally. Mote and morefinanc ia l institution use enterprise cooperatio n to orga nize transactio n and production,so agglo meration effect of service appears and some scho lars have focused on thefinanc ia l agglo meratio n effect. But the evo lution and effects of financ ia lagglo meratio n effects are vulnerable yet. Research of financ ia l agglo meratio n isalways focused on the analytical frameworks of general industrial groups’ conceptionor simply by a na lyzing paradigms of manufacturing a gglo meration. So it is needed torevaluate adoptio n and target of the methodolo gy. Meanwhile, the former financ ia lagglo meratio n research just touched on the surface of theoretica l research because oflack of the detailed materia l and data, let a lo ne the proved analytica l measureme ntresults. Therefore, the iss ue such as the b irth o f fina nc ial a gglo meration, themeasure ment on the c lustering ability of the agglo meration areas, the evolution offinanc ia l agglo meration and the effect on the loca l finance and industria l developme nt,have not discovered yet. Then, how to use syste matic ways by qua lity, q uantity andspace metrics to explore the financ ia l agglo meration birth and deve lopment issupple mentary and improve ment for financ ia l agglo meration res earch and also thetheoretical ground and data support for macro decision.
Taking into account the econo mic geography, spatia l economics and s ystemdyna mics, this thes is investigates the features of finance, establis hes the financ ia lagglo meratio n evo lutio n mec hanis m and effect analys is fra mework on the basis of thefundamental theories of financial agglomeration and China’s realities. It could bereflected in the following seven aspects:
First, on the basis of syste matically rationa lizing the research achieve ments ofboth domestic and internationa l sc holars on financ ia l agglo meratio n connotation,mecha nis m, evolution a nd effect, it defines the re leva nt concepts of financ ia lagglo meratio n and conducts research on the essence and characteristics of financ ia lagglo meratio n as well as its difference fro m other ind ustrial agglo meration byconsidering the features of the development of financial industry.
Second, by comparing the measureme nt of d ifferent ind ustrial agglo meration, itestablis hes the comprehe ns ive e va luation index s yste m of financ ia l a gglo meration degree and assesses the spatial c luster degree and dyna mic change characteristics offinance fro m the perspective of financ ia l scale, market and institutio ns. The analys isshows that, currently, the fina nc ial agglo meratio n varies fro m each other in terms ofthe spatial d iversity. The financ ia l agglo meration degree diminishes fro m the east tomidd le and western China. Be ijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang and J iangs u areall c ities with high degree of fina nc ial a gglo meration while western cities, suc h asGuizho u, Ningxia, Q inghai and Tibet are cities of low degree of financ ia lagglomeration due to their financial backwardness.
Third, according to the analys is results of dyna mic factors of fina nc ialagglo meratio n evo lutio n, the artic le sets up space pane l measureme nt model offinanc ia l cluster evolution mechanis m as well as Geographica lly Weighted Regress ion(GWM). The experiment shows that, scale economy, po licy environme nt, industria lcompetition and knowledge spillo ver ha ve exerted substantial influence on financ ia lagglo meratio n of different regions. Then, it also establis hes the Logistic Model offinanc ia l agglomeration e volutio n process and judges the overall e vo lutio n trends offinance. According to the researches, financ ia l agglo meration syste m of China is inthe rise stage, which is evidenced by the fact that, Ha ina n Province exists in the initia lstage of financ ia l agglo meration system develop ment, Beijing took the lead inentering the growth phase of financ ia l agglo meratio n evolution and Guangdong,Beijing and Fujian province will s uccessive ly step into the mature period of financ ia lagglomeration system development.
Fourth, in light of the research result of fina ncia l agglo meratio n evolutionmecha nis m, it establis hes the systematic dyna mic model of financ ia l agglo merationevolution route and imitates the simulation evo lutio n model of fina nc ial evo lution. Itchecks the simulation model with the data of Guangdong province and finds that thefinanc ia l agglo meration evo lutio n syste m could accurately re flect the evo lutionprocess of financ ia l agglo meration. On this basis, it conducts ana log s imulatio n of thefinanc ia l agglo meratio n trend o f different provinces of China, whic h ind icates thatBeijing, Guangdong and Shangha i will take the lead in terms of financ ia lagglo meratio n degree in China. However, the c luster degrees of Hebei, Shaanxi andShandong reach the second rank ings of China, and cities in western China, such asQingha i, Tibet and Guangxi are in a relative ly low le vel. Furthermore, it takes theexamp le of Gua ngdong province, analyzes the impact of polic y cha nges on re giona lfinanc ia l agglo meratio n and finds that the increase in governme nt spending andimprove ment in regiona l infrastructure are cond ucive to fac ilitating regio nal financ ia l agglomeration.
Fifth, based on the effect of financ ia l agglo meration on regiona l econo micgrowth， it puts forward the dyna mic pane l model and investigates the dyna micspillover effect of fina nc ial agglo meration on regiona l economic growth. The resultsdemo nstrate that the first-order lag qua ntity a nd the capita l input are effective inpromoting regio nal economic growth; however, the financ ia l agglo meration degreeand labor input exert negative inhib iting effect on reg iona l econo mic growth. Thro ughthe experime nt of exa mining the spatia l spillover e ffect of fina ncia l agglo meration onregio na l economic growth, the a uthor finds that, the no n-fixed effect, spatia l fixedeffect and time fixed effect of financ ia l agglomeration o f provinc ial leve l in bothspatia l lag model and spatia l error model ha ve obvious positive spillover bearings onregio na l econo mic growth. From the perspective of local influence of d ifferentvariab les, the financ ia l c luster o f some western regions, inc lud ing Shanxi, Mongo liaand Guizhou, bears negative spillover effect on regio nal economic growth. At last, theemp irical stud ies confirm the existe nce of thresho ld effect of financ ia l a gglo merationon regio na l econo mic growth and obtain the thresho ld va lue of4.0639by establis hingthe threshold panel regression model.
Sixth, by analyzing the mechanism of financial agglomeration’s effect onregio na l industria l structure, it also investigates the spatia l connections betweenfinanc ia l agglomeration and industria l structure fro m the ange l of space. The researchshows that, the ind ustrial structure d ispla ys an obvious spatia l positive auto-correlation re lation in the spatia l d istribution. By means of integrating into thespatia l e ffect, it measures the correlation degree between fina ncia l a gglo meration andindustria l structure and manufacturing competitiveness and verifies the non-fixedeffect, spatia l fixed effect and time fixed effect of financ ia l agglo meration ofprovincia l leve l in spatia l error model ha ve obvious positive spillover bearings onregio na l industria l structure. The deve lopme nt of financ ia l agglo meration isconduc ive to the promotion o f the effective ness of manufacturing ind ustry a nd theenhance ment o f competitive ness. By establis hing the syste m of s imultaneousequations, it finds out the spatia l linka ge effects between fina nc ial a gglo meration andmanufacturing agglomeration.
Seventh, according to the research results of polic y simulation o f dyna mics andthe spatia l effect ana lys is of financ ia l agglo meratio n, it proposes the rele vant polic iessuggestions and supporting measures to promote the deve lopme nt of finance byconsidering the current development status of China’s financial agglomeration and the elements that restrain the development of financial agglomeration.
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