基于区域空间结构的中心城市流量经济效应研究
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摘要
本文在对流量经济相关概念界定、区域空间结构理论以及流量经济理论评述的基础上,采用规范和实证的方法,从流量经济及要素流动的角度,阐述了区域空间结构与流量经济的关系及流量经济的结构体系、运行机制、构成要素及其流动的影响因子、中心城市流量经济效应以及通过流量经济促进欠发达地区经济增长的可能性。通过对青藏高原区域性中心城市--西宁市流量经济发展的区域背景条件、平台条件、流量经济发展环境与流量经济发展主体与载体进行的定量分析,较为准确地把握了西宁市发展流量经济的优势与劣势,选择代表性的指标定量地分析了西宁市流量经济效应发展的集聚效应及倍增效应,客观地评价了其流量经济发展的水平及其与国内较高水平(北京市)和邻近城市(兰州市)的差距,为今后西宁市发展流量经济推动区域发展提供了客观的认知基础,并针对性地提出了西宁市发展流量经济的若干政策建议与对策,同时,也为国内其它欠发达地区中心城市流量经济发展提供借鉴。
文章界定了流量经济的基本概念,指出流量经济是一种适合于区域中心城市发展的经济模式,主要是指区域中心城市以相应的平台和条件,吸引区外的物资、资金、人才、技术和信息等资源要素向区内集聚,通过各资源要素的重组、整合来促进和带动相关产业的发展,并将形成和以扩大的经济能量向周边区域乃至更远地区辐射。在集聚辐射过程中,各资源要素通过高效、有序、规范的流动实现其价值,再通过倍增、循环、辐射的流动扩大规模,从而达到中心城市带动周边区域共同发展的目的。
文章提出了流量经济理论结构体系。认为流量经济结构体系由流量经济要素、流量经济发展主体与载体、流量经济发展平台和流量经济发展环境等构成。流量经济要素是指影响区域经济发展的可流动要素,主要指物资、劳动力、资本、信息和技术等与区域经济发展过程息息相关的、具有空间可流动性的发展要素。流量经济主体,指物流、人流、信息流、资金流、技术流等经济要素及其流量以及与其密切相关的基本条件。流量经济载体,指所有参与经济要素配置的企业、组织及个人。流量经济发展平台指中心城市能够吸引流量经济的载体机构进入,建立的供这些机构进行资源要素实际运作所需的设施、场所和市场体系等,是流量经济运行和发展的最重要的支撑。按照功能的不同,流量经济的发展平台可以分为基础平台、操作平台和服务平台三大类。基础平台主要是指交通及通讯设施、港口码头、航空港、以及适宜的办公居住场所等及其相关配套设施。操作平台主要是指要素市场体系,包括商品市场、资本市场、期货市场、技术市场和人才市场等。服务平台就是为要素的交易和流动提供配套服务的市场中介组织体系,包括会计师事务所、律师事务所、资产评估师事务所、企业咨询机构等。流量经济的发展环境主要是指发展流量经济所需的社会、政治、经济和文化等方面的环境条件。
文章提出了流量经济运行机制。认为要素的区域势差是要素流动的前提条件,要素收益的区域差额是要素流动的根本动力,可达性是要素流动的必要条件,互补性是要素流动的助推剂,政府调控是要素有序流动的重要保障。此外,干扰机会影响要素的流动路径。
文章对影响流量经济发展的诸要素流动进行了概括性分析。认为人口及劳动力要素流动主要受福利驱动,物资要素流动主要受利润驱动,资金要素流动主要受投资收益驱动,信息要素流动主要受需求驱动,技术要素流动主要受科学推动及需求拉动。
文章以区域空间结构理论为基础,对流量经济效应进行了概括性分析。认为集聚效应、扩散效应、整合效应及倍增效应是流量经济发展过程中的主要效应,其中,集聚与扩散是流量经济要素围绕区域中心城市进行流动的两种基本形式,从而产生集聚效应与扩散效应,扩散是集聚达到一定程度后才会出现。简要分析了集聚与扩散的原因与机制,论述了要素在中心城市集聚过程中发生的整合效应以及对中心城市经济发展所产生的影响,即流量经济的倍增效应。
文章探讨了欠发达地区通过流量经济促进其经济发展的可能途径。认为欠发达地区应立足区域比较优势,发展特色经济产业。同时,国家也应通过区域经济政策帮助欠发达地区完善基础设施,想方设法提高其区域要素收益及人才待遇,建设好流量经济发展平台与环境,以推动其经济发展。
为了验证流量经济理论分析框架,本文选取青藏高原区域性中心城市----西宁市为例,通过实证研究寻找欠发达地区的发展流量经济可行性及流量经济发展模式,以期为西部大开发进程中重点发展区域,特别是为欠发达地区流量经济发展提供案例,对国内其他同类地区流量经济发展路径的选择提供一定的借鉴。
文章对西宁市发展流量经济的区域背景自然条件、区域要素收益、流量经济发展平台与环境等方面选择代表性的指标,如职工平均工资、城镇居民年人均家庭收入、企业利润、政府财政收入等,进行了定量评价,认为青海省在区域要素收益、流量经济发展平台与环境等许多方面在全国处于落后地位,这在一定程度上限制了西宁市流量经济的发展。但西宁市流量经济发展条件在青海省乃至青藏高原区域范围内具有相对优势,因而立足这一相对优势及区域比较优势,发展流量经济是可行的。
文章对西宁市流量经济效应进行了简要分析并对其流量经济发展水平进行了定量评价。从区域宏观背景上采用代表性指标(人均GDP),用空间自相关分析对西宁市经济发展集聚与扩散效应进行了宏观判断,表明集聚效应开始显现,但扩散效应尚不明显,并进一步对其要素集聚度进行了定量分析,构建了要素集聚与区域经济增长的数学模型。西宁市流量经济发展水平评价表明,西宁市流量经济发展处于较低层次,与全国较高水平(北京市)及邻近主要城市(兰州市)有很大差距,流量经济发展平台及环境不完善,市场不发育,流量经济载体弱小。流量经济发展规模小,水平低。
文章以铁路客、货流数据为代表,探讨了西宁市与周边主要城市的要素联系及其流动情况,表明与其客流联系紧密的是与其最近的中心城市—兰州市,而货流相对分散一些,反映了地区间资源与产品的互补性及联系。这些结论印证了流量经济理论的相关结论。
最后,针对西宁市流量经济发展的问题与瓶颈,提出应该积极培育市场体系,加强流量经济平台与环境建设,吸引人才,构筑流量经济主体,完善流量经济载体,塑造流量经济发展平台的发展战略。
Based on definition of conceptions related to runoff economy and reviews on the theory of regional spatial structure and the theory of runoff economy, from the standpoints of runoff economy and elements runoff, the relations between region spatial structure and the runoff economy, and the structural system, the operational mechanism, the structural elements and the influential factors of their runoff of the runoff economy, and then the runoff economic effects and the possibility of the economic growth in the underdeveloped regions through the runoff economy are expounded in this thesis. By quantitatively analyzing the regional background conditions and platform conditions of the runoff economic development its developmental environment and the subjects and carriers of Xining City, the regional central city of Tibet Plateau, this thesis holds the advantages and disadvantages of the runoff economic development in Xining City quite accurately, analyzes quantitatively the accumulative effect and multiplication effect leaded by the runoff economic effect in Xining City based on the choice of representative indices, evaluates the gap of the development level of runoff economy between Xining City and the city with higher level( Beijing) and the city nearby(Lanzhou City) providing the cognitive base to develop runoff economy in Xining City, which can promote the local region development; and then puts forward some policy recommendations to develop the runoff economy in Xining City, meanwhile provides the references to other central cities in the underdeveloped regions to develop the runoff economy.
Firstly,this thesis defines the basic concept of runoff economy and points out that runoff economy is an economic mode applicable to the development of regional central city. This mode indicates mainly that the regional central city attracts resource elements out of the region, such as the materials, capitals, talents, technology and information and so on to gather into it, due to its platform and conditions, and the relative industries are promoted through the recombination and integration of kinds of the resources, then the economic energy formed and enlarged radiates the surrounding areas and even the further areas. During the gathering and radiating, the values of kinds of resource elements obtain growth by efficient orderly and normative runoff, and then their scales enlarge through multiplication, recirculation and radiation, thus the goal of common development leaded by central city promoting surrounding areas is achieved.
This thesis presents the structural system of the runoff economy theory and argues that it is consisted of runoff economic elements and the subjects, the carriers, the development platform and environment of runoff economy. The elements of runoff economy are the mobile elements that effect regional economic development, mainly including the materials, the capitals, the talents, the information, the technology and the development elements that are related to development process of the regional economy closely and are current in space. The subjects of runoff economy refer to the flows of materials, talents, information capitals, technology and their runoffs, and the basic conditions relative to them closely. The carriers of runoff economy refer to all of the enterprises, organizations and individuals involved in the distribution of economic elements. The platforms of economic development refer to the facilities, locations and market system and so on that can attract the carrier institutions to participate in and are needed by the institutions to operate the resource elements, thus become most the important supports to the operation and development of runoff economy. In terms of function, the platforms are classified into three groups: the basic platforms, operational platforms and service platforms. The basic platforms refers to the transportation and communication facilities, the locations that adapt to handle official business and to dwell in, and their supporting facilities. The operational platforms refer to the production elements market system, including the markets of commodity, capitals, futures, technology and talents. The service platforms refer to the market intermediary organization system, including accounting firms, law offices, assets evaluation firms and consultant agencies for firms and so on. The development environment of the runoff economy refers to the environmental conditions in terms of the social, political economic aspects that are needed by the development of the runoff economy.
This thesis presents the operational mechanism of runoff economy and argues that the potential difference of elements between regions is the premise of the elements flow, that the benefit balances of elements between regions is the basic force of elements flow, that the is the necessary requirement of the element movement, the complementarity the propellant, the government regulation the significant guarantee for orderly movement of elements. In addition, he disturbing factors exert effects on the flowing pathway of the elements.
All factors that influence the development of runoff economy are analyzed generally in this thesis. The results indicate that the movement of population and labors are driven by the welfare; that of material element by profits; that of capital element by investment income; that of information element by demands; that of technical element by science and demands.
Based on the theory of regional spatial structure, the runoff economic effect is analyzed generally in this thesis. The results suggest the accumulative effect, the diffusing effect, the integrating effect and the multiplicative effect are the main effects in development of runoff economy. Accumulation and diffusion are two basic forms in which the elements of runoff economy move around the regional central city and lead to the accumulative effect and then the diffusing effect which comes out only when the accumulative effect develops to some degree. The causes and the mechanism of accumulation and diffusion are analyzed in brief and the integrative effect that come out in the process of element accumulating into the central city, and its influence on the economic development of the central city( namely the multiplicative effects) are discussed in this thesis too.
The possible approaches through which the runoff economy promotes the economic development of the underdeveloped region are discussed, and argue that the economic industries with local features should be developed in the underdeveloped regions based on the regional comparative advantages. Meanwhile, through the regional economic policy the central government should help the underdeveloped regions perfect their facilities, and try to raise their factors earnings and the treatments to the talents, and build the development platform and environment of runoff economy to promote their economic development.
In order to verify the analytical framework of the runoff economic theory, taking Xining City -the regional central city of Tibet Plateau-for an example, this thesis seeks to show the feasibility to develop runoff economy and the mode in the underdeveloped regions through empirical research, to present an case for the key regions developed in West Development, specially for the underdeveloped regions to develop runoff economy, and provide some lessons to other domestic homogeneous regions to choose development pathway of runoff economy.
This thesis chooses and evaluates quantitatively the representative index of regional natural conditions and regional factor earnings and the platform and environment for Xining City to develop runoff economy, such as staff average wages, urban per capital income, profits of enterprise and fiscal revenue of government, and argues that Qinghai province lies on the lagging position in our country in many ways such as factor earnings, development platform and so on, which constraints the development of runoff economy of Xining City to some extent. However, Xining City has the comparative advantages in Qinghai even in Tibet Plateau in terms of the conditions for runoff economy. So based on the relative advantage and comparative advantages, it is feasible to develop runoff economy in Xining City.
This thesis briefly analyzes the runoff economic effect of Xining City and quantitatively evaluates its development level. Using Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis and choosing the representative index (e.g. per capital GDP) from the regional micro-background standpoint, this thesis diagnoses generally the accumulative effect and the diffusing effect in the economic development of Xining City. The results indicate that the accumulative effect come to emerge, but the diffusing effect is not obvious. Then, this thesis further quantitatively analyzes the accumulative degree of factors and establishes the mathematical model of elements accumulation and regional economic growth. The analysis of the development level of runoff economy of Xining City indicates the development level of runoff economy of Xining City is relatively low and there is tremendous gap between Xining City and the cities with higher level (e.g. Beingjing City) and ones nearby (e.g. Lanzhou City),and the platform and environment for Xining City to develop runoff economy are imperfect, the market underdeveloped and the carriers feeble. The scale of runoff economy of Xining City is small and with low level.
Taking the data of railway passenger and cargo runoffs for example, this thesis discusses the connections between Xinning City and main cites surrounding it generating through factors and their flow. The results suggest that the city which is connected to Xining City most closely through passenger flow is Lanzhou City, but the cargo flow is relatively dispersive, which reflects the complementarity and connections between regions in terms of resources and products. These conclusions confirm corresponding ones of the theory of runoff economy.
At last, aiming at the problems and bottlenecks of the development of runoff economy in Xining City, this thesis suggests that the market system should be fostered actively, the platform and environment for Xining City to develop runoff economy should be enhanced, talents should be attracted, the subjects should be established, the carriers of runoff economy should be perfected, and the development stratagem of the platform of the runoff economy should be developed.
文章界定了流量经济的基本概念,指出流量经济是一种适合于区域中心城市发展的经济模式,主要是指区域中心城市以相应的平台和条件,吸引区外的物资、资金、人才、技术和信息等资源要素向区内集聚,通过各资源要素的重组、整合来促进和带动相关产业的发展,并将形成和以扩大的经济能量向周边区域乃至更远地区辐射。在集聚辐射过程中,各资源要素通过高效、有序、规范的流动实现其价值,再通过倍增、循环、辐射的流动扩大规模,从而达到中心城市带动周边区域共同发展的目的。
文章提出了流量经济理论结构体系。认为流量经济结构体系由流量经济要素、流量经济发展主体与载体、流量经济发展平台和流量经济发展环境等构成。流量经济要素是指影响区域经济发展的可流动要素,主要指物资、劳动力、资本、信息和技术等与区域经济发展过程息息相关的、具有空间可流动性的发展要素。流量经济主体,指物流、人流、信息流、资金流、技术流等经济要素及其流量以及与其密切相关的基本条件。流量经济载体,指所有参与经济要素配置的企业、组织及个人。流量经济发展平台指中心城市能够吸引流量经济的载体机构进入,建立的供这些机构进行资源要素实际运作所需的设施、场所和市场体系等,是流量经济运行和发展的最重要的支撑。按照功能的不同,流量经济的发展平台可以分为基础平台、操作平台和服务平台三大类。基础平台主要是指交通及通讯设施、港口码头、航空港、以及适宜的办公居住场所等及其相关配套设施。操作平台主要是指要素市场体系,包括商品市场、资本市场、期货市场、技术市场和人才市场等。服务平台就是为要素的交易和流动提供配套服务的市场中介组织体系,包括会计师事务所、律师事务所、资产评估师事务所、企业咨询机构等。流量经济的发展环境主要是指发展流量经济所需的社会、政治、经济和文化等方面的环境条件。
文章提出了流量经济运行机制。认为要素的区域势差是要素流动的前提条件,要素收益的区域差额是要素流动的根本动力,可达性是要素流动的必要条件,互补性是要素流动的助推剂,政府调控是要素有序流动的重要保障。此外,干扰机会影响要素的流动路径。
文章对影响流量经济发展的诸要素流动进行了概括性分析。认为人口及劳动力要素流动主要受福利驱动,物资要素流动主要受利润驱动,资金要素流动主要受投资收益驱动,信息要素流动主要受需求驱动,技术要素流动主要受科学推动及需求拉动。
文章以区域空间结构理论为基础,对流量经济效应进行了概括性分析。认为集聚效应、扩散效应、整合效应及倍增效应是流量经济发展过程中的主要效应,其中,集聚与扩散是流量经济要素围绕区域中心城市进行流动的两种基本形式,从而产生集聚效应与扩散效应,扩散是集聚达到一定程度后才会出现。简要分析了集聚与扩散的原因与机制,论述了要素在中心城市集聚过程中发生的整合效应以及对中心城市经济发展所产生的影响,即流量经济的倍增效应。
文章探讨了欠发达地区通过流量经济促进其经济发展的可能途径。认为欠发达地区应立足区域比较优势,发展特色经济产业。同时,国家也应通过区域经济政策帮助欠发达地区完善基础设施,想方设法提高其区域要素收益及人才待遇,建设好流量经济发展平台与环境,以推动其经济发展。
为了验证流量经济理论分析框架,本文选取青藏高原区域性中心城市----西宁市为例,通过实证研究寻找欠发达地区的发展流量经济可行性及流量经济发展模式,以期为西部大开发进程中重点发展区域,特别是为欠发达地区流量经济发展提供案例,对国内其他同类地区流量经济发展路径的选择提供一定的借鉴。
文章对西宁市发展流量经济的区域背景自然条件、区域要素收益、流量经济发展平台与环境等方面选择代表性的指标,如职工平均工资、城镇居民年人均家庭收入、企业利润、政府财政收入等,进行了定量评价,认为青海省在区域要素收益、流量经济发展平台与环境等许多方面在全国处于落后地位,这在一定程度上限制了西宁市流量经济的发展。但西宁市流量经济发展条件在青海省乃至青藏高原区域范围内具有相对优势,因而立足这一相对优势及区域比较优势,发展流量经济是可行的。
文章对西宁市流量经济效应进行了简要分析并对其流量经济发展水平进行了定量评价。从区域宏观背景上采用代表性指标(人均GDP),用空间自相关分析对西宁市经济发展集聚与扩散效应进行了宏观判断,表明集聚效应开始显现,但扩散效应尚不明显,并进一步对其要素集聚度进行了定量分析,构建了要素集聚与区域经济增长的数学模型。西宁市流量经济发展水平评价表明,西宁市流量经济发展处于较低层次,与全国较高水平(北京市)及邻近主要城市(兰州市)有很大差距,流量经济发展平台及环境不完善,市场不发育,流量经济载体弱小。流量经济发展规模小,水平低。
文章以铁路客、货流数据为代表,探讨了西宁市与周边主要城市的要素联系及其流动情况,表明与其客流联系紧密的是与其最近的中心城市—兰州市,而货流相对分散一些,反映了地区间资源与产品的互补性及联系。这些结论印证了流量经济理论的相关结论。
最后,针对西宁市流量经济发展的问题与瓶颈,提出应该积极培育市场体系,加强流量经济平台与环境建设,吸引人才,构筑流量经济主体,完善流量经济载体,塑造流量经济发展平台的发展战略。
Based on definition of conceptions related to runoff economy and reviews on the theory of regional spatial structure and the theory of runoff economy, from the standpoints of runoff economy and elements runoff, the relations between region spatial structure and the runoff economy, and the structural system, the operational mechanism, the structural elements and the influential factors of their runoff of the runoff economy, and then the runoff economic effects and the possibility of the economic growth in the underdeveloped regions through the runoff economy are expounded in this thesis. By quantitatively analyzing the regional background conditions and platform conditions of the runoff economic development its developmental environment and the subjects and carriers of Xining City, the regional central city of Tibet Plateau, this thesis holds the advantages and disadvantages of the runoff economic development in Xining City quite accurately, analyzes quantitatively the accumulative effect and multiplication effect leaded by the runoff economic effect in Xining City based on the choice of representative indices, evaluates the gap of the development level of runoff economy between Xining City and the city with higher level( Beijing) and the city nearby(Lanzhou City) providing the cognitive base to develop runoff economy in Xining City, which can promote the local region development; and then puts forward some policy recommendations to develop the runoff economy in Xining City, meanwhile provides the references to other central cities in the underdeveloped regions to develop the runoff economy.
Firstly,this thesis defines the basic concept of runoff economy and points out that runoff economy is an economic mode applicable to the development of regional central city. This mode indicates mainly that the regional central city attracts resource elements out of the region, such as the materials, capitals, talents, technology and information and so on to gather into it, due to its platform and conditions, and the relative industries are promoted through the recombination and integration of kinds of the resources, then the economic energy formed and enlarged radiates the surrounding areas and even the further areas. During the gathering and radiating, the values of kinds of resource elements obtain growth by efficient orderly and normative runoff, and then their scales enlarge through multiplication, recirculation and radiation, thus the goal of common development leaded by central city promoting surrounding areas is achieved.
This thesis presents the structural system of the runoff economy theory and argues that it is consisted of runoff economic elements and the subjects, the carriers, the development platform and environment of runoff economy. The elements of runoff economy are the mobile elements that effect regional economic development, mainly including the materials, the capitals, the talents, the information, the technology and the development elements that are related to development process of the regional economy closely and are current in space. The subjects of runoff economy refer to the flows of materials, talents, information capitals, technology and their runoffs, and the basic conditions relative to them closely. The carriers of runoff economy refer to all of the enterprises, organizations and individuals involved in the distribution of economic elements. The platforms of economic development refer to the facilities, locations and market system and so on that can attract the carrier institutions to participate in and are needed by the institutions to operate the resource elements, thus become most the important supports to the operation and development of runoff economy. In terms of function, the platforms are classified into three groups: the basic platforms, operational platforms and service platforms. The basic platforms refers to the transportation and communication facilities, the locations that adapt to handle official business and to dwell in, and their supporting facilities. The operational platforms refer to the production elements market system, including the markets of commodity, capitals, futures, technology and talents. The service platforms refer to the market intermediary organization system, including accounting firms, law offices, assets evaluation firms and consultant agencies for firms and so on. The development environment of the runoff economy refers to the environmental conditions in terms of the social, political economic aspects that are needed by the development of the runoff economy.
This thesis presents the operational mechanism of runoff economy and argues that the potential difference of elements between regions is the premise of the elements flow, that the benefit balances of elements between regions is the basic force of elements flow, that the is the necessary requirement of the element movement, the complementarity the propellant, the government regulation the significant guarantee for orderly movement of elements. In addition, he disturbing factors exert effects on the flowing pathway of the elements.
All factors that influence the development of runoff economy are analyzed generally in this thesis. The results indicate that the movement of population and labors are driven by the welfare; that of material element by profits; that of capital element by investment income; that of information element by demands; that of technical element by science and demands.
Based on the theory of regional spatial structure, the runoff economic effect is analyzed generally in this thesis. The results suggest the accumulative effect, the diffusing effect, the integrating effect and the multiplicative effect are the main effects in development of runoff economy. Accumulation and diffusion are two basic forms in which the elements of runoff economy move around the regional central city and lead to the accumulative effect and then the diffusing effect which comes out only when the accumulative effect develops to some degree. The causes and the mechanism of accumulation and diffusion are analyzed in brief and the integrative effect that come out in the process of element accumulating into the central city, and its influence on the economic development of the central city( namely the multiplicative effects) are discussed in this thesis too.
The possible approaches through which the runoff economy promotes the economic development of the underdeveloped region are discussed, and argue that the economic industries with local features should be developed in the underdeveloped regions based on the regional comparative advantages. Meanwhile, through the regional economic policy the central government should help the underdeveloped regions perfect their facilities, and try to raise their factors earnings and the treatments to the talents, and build the development platform and environment of runoff economy to promote their economic development.
In order to verify the analytical framework of the runoff economic theory, taking Xining City -the regional central city of Tibet Plateau-for an example, this thesis seeks to show the feasibility to develop runoff economy and the mode in the underdeveloped regions through empirical research, to present an case for the key regions developed in West Development, specially for the underdeveloped regions to develop runoff economy, and provide some lessons to other domestic homogeneous regions to choose development pathway of runoff economy.
This thesis chooses and evaluates quantitatively the representative index of regional natural conditions and regional factor earnings and the platform and environment for Xining City to develop runoff economy, such as staff average wages, urban per capital income, profits of enterprise and fiscal revenue of government, and argues that Qinghai province lies on the lagging position in our country in many ways such as factor earnings, development platform and so on, which constraints the development of runoff economy of Xining City to some extent. However, Xining City has the comparative advantages in Qinghai even in Tibet Plateau in terms of the conditions for runoff economy. So based on the relative advantage and comparative advantages, it is feasible to develop runoff economy in Xining City.
This thesis briefly analyzes the runoff economic effect of Xining City and quantitatively evaluates its development level. Using Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis and choosing the representative index (e.g. per capital GDP) from the regional micro-background standpoint, this thesis diagnoses generally the accumulative effect and the diffusing effect in the economic development of Xining City. The results indicate that the accumulative effect come to emerge, but the diffusing effect is not obvious. Then, this thesis further quantitatively analyzes the accumulative degree of factors and establishes the mathematical model of elements accumulation and regional economic growth. The analysis of the development level of runoff economy of Xining City indicates the development level of runoff economy of Xining City is relatively low and there is tremendous gap between Xining City and the cities with higher level (e.g. Beingjing City) and ones nearby (e.g. Lanzhou City),and the platform and environment for Xining City to develop runoff economy are imperfect, the market underdeveloped and the carriers feeble. The scale of runoff economy of Xining City is small and with low level.
Taking the data of railway passenger and cargo runoffs for example, this thesis discusses the connections between Xinning City and main cites surrounding it generating through factors and their flow. The results suggest that the city which is connected to Xining City most closely through passenger flow is Lanzhou City, but the cargo flow is relatively dispersive, which reflects the complementarity and connections between regions in terms of resources and products. These conclusions confirm corresponding ones of the theory of runoff economy.
At last, aiming at the problems and bottlenecks of the development of runoff economy in Xining City, this thesis suggests that the market system should be fostered actively, the platform and environment for Xining City to develop runoff economy should be enhanced, talents should be attracted, the subjects should be established, the carriers of runoff economy should be perfected, and the development stratagem of the platform of the runoff economy should be developed.
引文
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