外商直接投资对中国工业结构与贸易结构之影响实证研究
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摘要
外商直接投资伴随着改革开放而进入,在我国已经有近30年历史,并随着我国经济的蓬勃发展其规模不断扩大。我国已成为利用外资最多的发展中国家。
外商直接投资已经深深卷入我国国民经济的各个领域,发挥着重大影响。外资促进了我国的资本形成,外资企业的工业总产值占我国工业总产值的近三分之一,其出口占我国总出口的一半还多,并为我国制造业提供了近三分之一的就业机会。
经过多年高速增长,我国经济总量迅速扩大,目前已成为世界最大经济体之一。但过去那种依靠大量投入和高度依赖出口的增长模式已经遇到了瓶颈。经济进一步发展迫切需要转变增长模式。而经济增长模式的转变,必然意味着经济结构的调整。
因此本文从经济结构的角度,深入分析了外商直接投资对我国经济的影响。
本文的研究主要包括两个部分,第一部分是外商直接投资对我国工业结构的影响,第二部分是外商直接投资对我国贸易结构的影响。
在工业结构方面,我们首先分析了外商直接投资对工业的行业结构、各行业的市场结构以及就业结构的影响。文中对全国工业和外资工业企业的行业集中度和行业结构变化进行了定性和定量分析;对各行业市场的主体构成及变化特征进行了分类研究;并对比了全国工业企业和外资工业企业的就业结构。
然后从工业企业的效益角度进行了深入分析。文中对全国工业企业和外资工业企业各行业的资本生产率、劳动生产率以及利润率进行了比较;并用两种方法对外商直接投资对我国工业企业各行业的技术外溢效果进行了实证检验。第一种方法是以道格拉斯生产函数为基础,对全部工业行业的数据进行了详细的分组检验。第二种方法是选取影响技术水平的多个变量,包括企业平均规模、行业资本密集度、外资参与程度、以及内外资企业技术差距等变量,利用多元回归模型从静态和动态两方面研究了外商直接投资对各行业内资企业的技术水平的外溢效果。其中重点分析了外资参与程度以及内外资企业的技术差距因素对内资企业技术水平的影响。
在贸易结构方面,我们首先分析了外商直接投资对我国贸易商品结构的影响。文中从理论上分析了出口商品集中度和稀缺性对国家整体出口优势的影响;并在大量数据基础上就外商直接投资对我国主要进出口商品的集中度、贸易平衡与贸易条件的影响进行了定量研究。
然后分析了外商直接投资对我国贸易地区结构的影响。文中对比了中国的外资来源地区和国别分布与中国的对外贸易伙伴地区和国别分布;并根据外商直接投资的贸易效应理论,对中国外商直接投资的贸易效应进行了实证检验。检验分两种,一种是根据横截面数据对中国的所有外资来源国和对外贸易伙伴国的对华投资与对华贸易的关系进行了总体检验,另一种是根据时间序列数据对中国的几个主要外资来源国及贸易伙伴国的对华投资与对华贸易的关系分别进行了检验。
Inflow FDI had been in China for nearly 30 years since 1979 whose stock had continually increased with the economic development. China had become the largest developing host country in attracting inflow FDI.
FDI had exerted great influence on all fields of Chinese domestic economy through the foreign funded enterprises which including the following : whose investment promoting the capital formation rate; whose industry output occupying nearly 1/3 of the total industry output; whose export sum occupying more than half of the total export sum; and which providing nearly 1/3 employment in Chinese manufacturing industry.
Chinese economic aggregate had been enlarged rapidly for the latest decades and China had become one of the largest economies in the world in present. But the traditional pattern of economic growth had confronted constraints which depending mainly on input and export. The transition of economic growth pattern indicated that the adjustment of the economic structure was necessary.
So this dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on Chinese economy from the perspective of economic structure.
The research included mainly two parts. The first part was about the influence of FDI on Chinese industry structure, and the second part was about the influence of FDI on Chinese foreign trade structure.
The research on the industry structure contained two parts.
Firstly, the dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on the detailed industry structure, the market structure of all industries and the employment structure. The research included the following: carrying on the qualitive and quantitive analysis on the concentration of all industry enterprises and the foreign funded industry enterprises and their structural change; studying the constitution of the subject of market of industry and the evolution characters by classification; and comparing the employment structure of all industry enterprises with the employment structure of the foreign funded enterprises.
Secondly, the dissertation analyzed the efficiency of the industry enterprises. The research included the following: comparing the capital productivity, the labor productivity and the profitability of all industry enterprises with those of the foreign funded enterprises; and studing empirically the technology spillover of FDI on Chinese industry by two methods. The first method was testing the data of all industries by classification on the basis of Cobb-Douglas product function. The second method was choosing variables which influencing the technical level and analyzing the technology spillover of FDI on the domestic enterprises from the static and dynamic aspects by building the multi-variable regression model. The variables included the average scale of enterprises, the capital intensity of industry, the level of participation of FDI in industries and the technology gap between the domestic funded enterprises and the foreign funded enterprises, among which the latter two were the focus of the analysis.
The research on the trade structure contained two parts too.
Firstly, the dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on the commodity structure of Chinese foreign trade. The research included the following: carrying on theoretical study on the influence of the concentration and scarcity of export commodities on the integrity export advantage; and carrying on quantitive study on the influence of FDI on the concentration of export goods, the trade balance and the trade term of Chinese foreign trade on the basis of mass data.
Secondly, the dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on the area structure of Chinese foreign trade. The research included the following: contrasting the distribution of the countries and areas which had invested in China with the distribution of the countries and areas which had trade relationship with China; and analyzing empirically the effect of FDI on Chinese foreign trade according the trade effect theories of FDI through two methods. The first method was testing the relationship between the inflow FDI from all mother countries and the bilateral trade between these countries and China on the basis of cross-sectional data; the second method was testing the relationship between the inflow FDI from several important mother countries and the bilateral trade between them and China on the basis of time-series data.
外商直接投资已经深深卷入我国国民经济的各个领域,发挥着重大影响。外资促进了我国的资本形成,外资企业的工业总产值占我国工业总产值的近三分之一,其出口占我国总出口的一半还多,并为我国制造业提供了近三分之一的就业机会。
经过多年高速增长,我国经济总量迅速扩大,目前已成为世界最大经济体之一。但过去那种依靠大量投入和高度依赖出口的增长模式已经遇到了瓶颈。经济进一步发展迫切需要转变增长模式。而经济增长模式的转变,必然意味着经济结构的调整。
因此本文从经济结构的角度,深入分析了外商直接投资对我国经济的影响。
本文的研究主要包括两个部分,第一部分是外商直接投资对我国工业结构的影响,第二部分是外商直接投资对我国贸易结构的影响。
在工业结构方面,我们首先分析了外商直接投资对工业的行业结构、各行业的市场结构以及就业结构的影响。文中对全国工业和外资工业企业的行业集中度和行业结构变化进行了定性和定量分析;对各行业市场的主体构成及变化特征进行了分类研究;并对比了全国工业企业和外资工业企业的就业结构。
然后从工业企业的效益角度进行了深入分析。文中对全国工业企业和外资工业企业各行业的资本生产率、劳动生产率以及利润率进行了比较;并用两种方法对外商直接投资对我国工业企业各行业的技术外溢效果进行了实证检验。第一种方法是以道格拉斯生产函数为基础,对全部工业行业的数据进行了详细的分组检验。第二种方法是选取影响技术水平的多个变量,包括企业平均规模、行业资本密集度、外资参与程度、以及内外资企业技术差距等变量,利用多元回归模型从静态和动态两方面研究了外商直接投资对各行业内资企业的技术水平的外溢效果。其中重点分析了外资参与程度以及内外资企业的技术差距因素对内资企业技术水平的影响。
在贸易结构方面,我们首先分析了外商直接投资对我国贸易商品结构的影响。文中从理论上分析了出口商品集中度和稀缺性对国家整体出口优势的影响;并在大量数据基础上就外商直接投资对我国主要进出口商品的集中度、贸易平衡与贸易条件的影响进行了定量研究。
然后分析了外商直接投资对我国贸易地区结构的影响。文中对比了中国的外资来源地区和国别分布与中国的对外贸易伙伴地区和国别分布;并根据外商直接投资的贸易效应理论,对中国外商直接投资的贸易效应进行了实证检验。检验分两种,一种是根据横截面数据对中国的所有外资来源国和对外贸易伙伴国的对华投资与对华贸易的关系进行了总体检验,另一种是根据时间序列数据对中国的几个主要外资来源国及贸易伙伴国的对华投资与对华贸易的关系分别进行了检验。
Inflow FDI had been in China for nearly 30 years since 1979 whose stock had continually increased with the economic development. China had become the largest developing host country in attracting inflow FDI.
FDI had exerted great influence on all fields of Chinese domestic economy through the foreign funded enterprises which including the following : whose investment promoting the capital formation rate; whose industry output occupying nearly 1/3 of the total industry output; whose export sum occupying more than half of the total export sum; and which providing nearly 1/3 employment in Chinese manufacturing industry.
Chinese economic aggregate had been enlarged rapidly for the latest decades and China had become one of the largest economies in the world in present. But the traditional pattern of economic growth had confronted constraints which depending mainly on input and export. The transition of economic growth pattern indicated that the adjustment of the economic structure was necessary.
So this dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on Chinese economy from the perspective of economic structure.
The research included mainly two parts. The first part was about the influence of FDI on Chinese industry structure, and the second part was about the influence of FDI on Chinese foreign trade structure.
The research on the industry structure contained two parts.
Firstly, the dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on the detailed industry structure, the market structure of all industries and the employment structure. The research included the following: carrying on the qualitive and quantitive analysis on the concentration of all industry enterprises and the foreign funded industry enterprises and their structural change; studying the constitution of the subject of market of industry and the evolution characters by classification; and comparing the employment structure of all industry enterprises with the employment structure of the foreign funded enterprises.
Secondly, the dissertation analyzed the efficiency of the industry enterprises. The research included the following: comparing the capital productivity, the labor productivity and the profitability of all industry enterprises with those of the foreign funded enterprises; and studing empirically the technology spillover of FDI on Chinese industry by two methods. The first method was testing the data of all industries by classification on the basis of Cobb-Douglas product function. The second method was choosing variables which influencing the technical level and analyzing the technology spillover of FDI on the domestic enterprises from the static and dynamic aspects by building the multi-variable regression model. The variables included the average scale of enterprises, the capital intensity of industry, the level of participation of FDI in industries and the technology gap between the domestic funded enterprises and the foreign funded enterprises, among which the latter two were the focus of the analysis.
The research on the trade structure contained two parts too.
Firstly, the dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on the commodity structure of Chinese foreign trade. The research included the following: carrying on theoretical study on the influence of the concentration and scarcity of export commodities on the integrity export advantage; and carrying on quantitive study on the influence of FDI on the concentration of export goods, the trade balance and the trade term of Chinese foreign trade on the basis of mass data.
Secondly, the dissertation analyzed the influence of FDI on the area structure of Chinese foreign trade. The research included the following: contrasting the distribution of the countries and areas which had invested in China with the distribution of the countries and areas which had trade relationship with China; and analyzing empirically the effect of FDI on Chinese foreign trade according the trade effect theories of FDI through two methods. The first method was testing the relationship between the inflow FDI from all mother countries and the bilateral trade between these countries and China on the basis of cross-sectional data; the second method was testing the relationship between the inflow FDI from several important mother countries and the bilateral trade between them and China on the basis of time-series data.
引文
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