跨流域调水远程受水区水资源规划若干关键问题研究
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摘要
水是一切生命赖以生存的自然资源,人类社会的发展离不开水资源的开发与利用。近年来,随着我国社会经济的快速发展,很多水资源禀赋较差的地区,水资源纷纷告急。由于我国水资源时空分布极为不均,南方水多,北方水少。跨流域调水已经成为我国解决水资源危机的重要途径之一。调水工程往往路线长,布局复杂,而一些远程受水区因其政治经济地位显著,往往是调水工程补水的重中之重。由于远程受水区距离水源区遥远,与水源区水文特性往往差异显著,而且漫长的距离使得工程建设技术难度高、投资耗费大。如果对其水资源的规划不足,决策有误,就会因过大的工程量造成巨大的经济损失。如果确定的调水量过小,会给远程受水区遗留水资源问题；而受到调水距离、工程难度的限制,遗留的水资源问题在今后很难弥补。所以对远程受水区的水资源规划进行深入的研究,对调水工程的实施与运行有着重要的意义。
虽然目前对远程受水区的规划仍然存在很多问题,但是在众多的问题中最基础、最关键的问题是对远程受水区水资源系统的分析、对远程受水区未来发展阶段需水量的预测,以及远程受水区与水源区之间的水文联合特性等,这些问题对于调水的可行性、补水方案的制定都十分关键。所以本文针对跨流域调水工程规划中远程受水区的水资源利用变动分析及需水预测、水资源可持续评价及水资源系统的演化机理、不同水文区降水丰枯遭遇分析等关键问题,以EW调水工程远程受水区为对象进行了研究。主要研究内容和成果如下：
(1)受水区水资源利用变动分析研究。针对因素分解法进行水资源利用变动分析时存在残差的问题,引入了无残差的LMDI完全分解法进行分解分析。通过在EW调水工程远程受水区的应用,表明非完全分解的拉氏法和帕氏法的残差都较大,应谨慎使用；简单平均迪氏法的残差较拉氏法和帕氏法的残差小很多,而LMDI的分解效果最好,残差为0。
(2)受水区需水预测研究。在目前的需水预测中,往往缺乏对用水机理的深入分析。本文通过对因素分解法完全分解及非完全分解公式的分析推导,在寻找用水量驱动因子与其对应驱动水量之间相关关系的基础上,发展了基于因素分解法的需水预测模型。结合EW调水工程远程受水区的实例验证,表明该法的预测准确度较高,预测结果可靠。
(3)受水区水资源可持续利用水平评价研究。对于跨流域调水工程的受水区,由于水资源严重匮乏,供水子系统对水资源系统的运行状态有着极大的影响；而且由于水资源的缺乏,受水区生态环境往往也很脆弱。针对这样的特点,从供水水平、用水水平、社会经济发展水平及生态环境建设水平等四个方面建立指标体系；考虑到区域水资源复合系统的复杂性及模糊性,采用可变模糊评价模型及径向基函数网络(Radial Basis Function Network,简称RBF)对远程受水区1980-2009年以及2015规划年的水资源可持续利用水平进行评价。基于评价结果对受水区水资源利用的“态”和“势”分别进行了分析,并对2015规划年远程受水区不调水的情景与调水情景进行了对比。
(4)受水区水资源复合系统演变轨迹研究。清楚认识受水区水资源系统演化的机理是有效监测和调控受水区社会经济和水资源(环境)适宜发展的基础。针对Logistic增长模型在描述区域水资源复合系统演变轨迹时不能够反映演变模式多样性的问题,在对区域水资源复合系统可持续发展特点进行理论分析的基础上,引入了更有弹性的Richards模型来描述区域水资源复合系统的演变过程。根据系统发展速度的不同,将区域水资源复合系统的演变模式分为迅速崛起型、缓慢崛起型和前后相近型。并利用自组织演化理论分析了区域水资源复合系统可持续发展的长期演变轨迹,分析表明区域水资源系统长期的演变轨迹并非完全的连续性路径演化,而是连续性渐变和间断性“涨落”的结合。“涨落”中孕含着动力,潜藏着时机,对于跨流域调水工程的受水区,由于水资源极其缺乏,水资源系统脆弱,“涨落”现象的出现更应该被重视,而不应该被忽视。这对于提高受水区水资源系统的稳定性和抗干扰性,引导系统的良性发展,实现受水区水资源复合系统的可持续发展有着重要的意义。最后,基于对受水区可持续利用水平的评价结果,利用Richards演化机制,对远程受水区水资源复合系统的演化特征进行了分析。
(5)不同水文区降水丰枯遭遇研究。针对一般多元Copula方法在进行多维变量频率分析时未能考虑变量间局部相关特性的缺陷,引入Pair-Copula建模方法,该法允许引入不同类型的Copula分布函数,可以准确地捕捉到随机变量之间存在的局部相关结构。通过在EW调水工程水源区、通过区及远程受水区三个水文区降水丰枯遭遇分析中的应用发现：即使在三维情形下,水文变量之间都会存在明显的局部相关结构,以至于无法使用一般三元Copula分布拟合；而通过Pair-Copula方法逐层引入不同类型的Copula,可以较好的描述水文变量之间的复杂相关结构,有效地对多元随机变量进行相关性分析。
Water is the fundamental substance for all lives on the earth. The development of human society cannot live without the exploitation and utilization of water resources. In recent years, Water shortages are already a major issue in many regions with China's rapid development of economic and social. Due to the unbalanced distribution of water resources, interbasin water transfer has become an important way to solve the water crisis in China. Water diversion projects are often long and complex route, which some remote intake areas are often the most important replenishment of the water diversion project because these areas have significantly political and economic position.
Due to remote intake areas are far away from water resources area, their hydrologic characteristics are significantly different. And constructions technical are difficulties and the investments are high. If the preliminary planning of remote intake areas is wrong, the large amount of engineering will cause huge economic losses; or the determined volume of water is too small, the problem of water scarcity has still not been solved fundamentally in intake area. Therefore, it is great significance to study the water resources planning in remote intake area for the implementation and operation of the water diversion project.
Of many problems, the most basic and critical points are the analyses of water resources system and water demand prediction in intake area. For remote intake area, the hydrological properties are often great different from water source area, the joint hydrological characteristics of remote area and water resources area are crucial to the formulation of the transfer scheme. In this paper, the remote intake area in EW inter-basin water transfer project are taken as a research object, some research on these problems above were done The main research contents and results are as follows:
(1) Analysis on the utilization change of water in intake area. A complete decomposition method-log mean divisia index method (LMDI) is introduced for analyzing the change of water use because general factor decomposition leaves over residual. Through the application in the intake area of EW water transfer project, it shows that:the residuals of Laspeyres decomposition (LAS) and Paache decomposition (PAA) are large, these two methods should be used with caution; the residual of Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index decomposition (AMDI) is much small, LMDI has the best decomposition effect, its residual is
(2) The water demand prediction in intake area. At present, the prediction accuracy of water demand is not satisfied due to the mechanism analysis on water utilization is lacked. In this paper, a new forecasting model is developed by analyzing the correlation between water drive factor and its corresponding drive water based on the derivation of completely factor decomposed and non-complete factor decomposition formula. Through the application in the intake area of EW water transfer project, it shows that the prediction accuracy of this method is high and the method has great practical value.
(3) Evaluate the levels of water sustainable use in intake area. Due to the severe shortage of water resources, the ecological environment is often weak in intake area of water transfer project; water supply subsystem and ecological environment subsystem have a great influence on the whole water system. Taken into account such characteristics, an index system is constructed from the four aspects:water supply level, water use level, socio-economic level and ecological environmental level. The variable fuzzy evaluation model and radial basis function networks (RBF) are adopted by considering the complexity and vagueness of the composite system of regional water resources. Through the evaluation on the intake area of EW water transfer project in1980-2009and2015, the "state" and "potential" of water resources utilization in the intake area are analyzed, and the diversion scenarios are compared with non-diversion scenarios.
(4) Study on the evolution of water resources composite system in intake area. Understanding the evolution mechanism of water resources composite system is the foundation of monitoring and regulation of the development of socio-economic and water environment in intake area. Logistic growth model can not reflect the diversity of evolution pattern in the analysis on water resources complex system. So, Richards model is introducted to describe the evolution of water resources composite system based on the analysis on the characteristics of sustainable development of the composite system of regional water resources. Depending on the speed of system development, the evolution of the composite system of regional water resources model is divided into the type of rapid rise, the the type of slow rise and the type of symmetry. And the long-term evolution of the complex system of regional water resources for sustainable development is analyzed by using self-organizing evolutionary theory. It shows that the long-term evolution of the water resources system is not completely continuous path, but the combination of continuous gradient and intermittent fluctuations. Fluctuations imply the new opportunities and dynamics of development. Fluctuation phenomenon should be given greater prominence, but not be ignored because the water resources systems are more vulnerable in intake area. This is of great significance for improving the stability and robustness of the receiving area of water resources systems. Finally, the evolutionary characteristics of the intake area of EW water transfer project are analysized by using Richards evolutionary mechanisms.
(5) Analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitations in inter-basin water transfer areas. The local characteristics of multi-dimensional random variables are seldom considered in general modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling method, so called Pair-Copula Construction, is introduced to remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitations in EW inter-basin water transfer areas, pair-copula construction method is compared with general modeling method of multivariate copula. It shows that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three dimensional cases. In this situation, general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, pair-copula construction could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions.
虽然目前对远程受水区的规划仍然存在很多问题,但是在众多的问题中最基础、最关键的问题是对远程受水区水资源系统的分析、对远程受水区未来发展阶段需水量的预测,以及远程受水区与水源区之间的水文联合特性等,这些问题对于调水的可行性、补水方案的制定都十分关键。所以本文针对跨流域调水工程规划中远程受水区的水资源利用变动分析及需水预测、水资源可持续评价及水资源系统的演化机理、不同水文区降水丰枯遭遇分析等关键问题,以EW调水工程远程受水区为对象进行了研究。主要研究内容和成果如下：
(1)受水区水资源利用变动分析研究。针对因素分解法进行水资源利用变动分析时存在残差的问题,引入了无残差的LMDI完全分解法进行分解分析。通过在EW调水工程远程受水区的应用,表明非完全分解的拉氏法和帕氏法的残差都较大,应谨慎使用；简单平均迪氏法的残差较拉氏法和帕氏法的残差小很多,而LMDI的分解效果最好,残差为0。
(2)受水区需水预测研究。在目前的需水预测中,往往缺乏对用水机理的深入分析。本文通过对因素分解法完全分解及非完全分解公式的分析推导,在寻找用水量驱动因子与其对应驱动水量之间相关关系的基础上,发展了基于因素分解法的需水预测模型。结合EW调水工程远程受水区的实例验证,表明该法的预测准确度较高,预测结果可靠。
(3)受水区水资源可持续利用水平评价研究。对于跨流域调水工程的受水区,由于水资源严重匮乏,供水子系统对水资源系统的运行状态有着极大的影响；而且由于水资源的缺乏,受水区生态环境往往也很脆弱。针对这样的特点,从供水水平、用水水平、社会经济发展水平及生态环境建设水平等四个方面建立指标体系；考虑到区域水资源复合系统的复杂性及模糊性,采用可变模糊评价模型及径向基函数网络(Radial Basis Function Network,简称RBF)对远程受水区1980-2009年以及2015规划年的水资源可持续利用水平进行评价。基于评价结果对受水区水资源利用的“态”和“势”分别进行了分析,并对2015规划年远程受水区不调水的情景与调水情景进行了对比。
(4)受水区水资源复合系统演变轨迹研究。清楚认识受水区水资源系统演化的机理是有效监测和调控受水区社会经济和水资源(环境)适宜发展的基础。针对Logistic增长模型在描述区域水资源复合系统演变轨迹时不能够反映演变模式多样性的问题,在对区域水资源复合系统可持续发展特点进行理论分析的基础上,引入了更有弹性的Richards模型来描述区域水资源复合系统的演变过程。根据系统发展速度的不同,将区域水资源复合系统的演变模式分为迅速崛起型、缓慢崛起型和前后相近型。并利用自组织演化理论分析了区域水资源复合系统可持续发展的长期演变轨迹,分析表明区域水资源系统长期的演变轨迹并非完全的连续性路径演化,而是连续性渐变和间断性“涨落”的结合。“涨落”中孕含着动力,潜藏着时机,对于跨流域调水工程的受水区,由于水资源极其缺乏,水资源系统脆弱,“涨落”现象的出现更应该被重视,而不应该被忽视。这对于提高受水区水资源系统的稳定性和抗干扰性,引导系统的良性发展,实现受水区水资源复合系统的可持续发展有着重要的意义。最后,基于对受水区可持续利用水平的评价结果,利用Richards演化机制,对远程受水区水资源复合系统的演化特征进行了分析。
(5)不同水文区降水丰枯遭遇研究。针对一般多元Copula方法在进行多维变量频率分析时未能考虑变量间局部相关特性的缺陷,引入Pair-Copula建模方法,该法允许引入不同类型的Copula分布函数,可以准确地捕捉到随机变量之间存在的局部相关结构。通过在EW调水工程水源区、通过区及远程受水区三个水文区降水丰枯遭遇分析中的应用发现：即使在三维情形下,水文变量之间都会存在明显的局部相关结构,以至于无法使用一般三元Copula分布拟合；而通过Pair-Copula方法逐层引入不同类型的Copula,可以较好的描述水文变量之间的复杂相关结构,有效地对多元随机变量进行相关性分析。
Water is the fundamental substance for all lives on the earth. The development of human society cannot live without the exploitation and utilization of water resources. In recent years, Water shortages are already a major issue in many regions with China's rapid development of economic and social. Due to the unbalanced distribution of water resources, interbasin water transfer has become an important way to solve the water crisis in China. Water diversion projects are often long and complex route, which some remote intake areas are often the most important replenishment of the water diversion project because these areas have significantly political and economic position.
Due to remote intake areas are far away from water resources area, their hydrologic characteristics are significantly different. And constructions technical are difficulties and the investments are high. If the preliminary planning of remote intake areas is wrong, the large amount of engineering will cause huge economic losses; or the determined volume of water is too small, the problem of water scarcity has still not been solved fundamentally in intake area. Therefore, it is great significance to study the water resources planning in remote intake area for the implementation and operation of the water diversion project.
Of many problems, the most basic and critical points are the analyses of water resources system and water demand prediction in intake area. For remote intake area, the hydrological properties are often great different from water source area, the joint hydrological characteristics of remote area and water resources area are crucial to the formulation of the transfer scheme. In this paper, the remote intake area in EW inter-basin water transfer project are taken as a research object, some research on these problems above were done The main research contents and results are as follows:
(1) Analysis on the utilization change of water in intake area. A complete decomposition method-log mean divisia index method (LMDI) is introduced for analyzing the change of water use because general factor decomposition leaves over residual. Through the application in the intake area of EW water transfer project, it shows that:the residuals of Laspeyres decomposition (LAS) and Paache decomposition (PAA) are large, these two methods should be used with caution; the residual of Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index decomposition (AMDI) is much small, LMDI has the best decomposition effect, its residual is
(2) The water demand prediction in intake area. At present, the prediction accuracy of water demand is not satisfied due to the mechanism analysis on water utilization is lacked. In this paper, a new forecasting model is developed by analyzing the correlation between water drive factor and its corresponding drive water based on the derivation of completely factor decomposed and non-complete factor decomposition formula. Through the application in the intake area of EW water transfer project, it shows that the prediction accuracy of this method is high and the method has great practical value.
(3) Evaluate the levels of water sustainable use in intake area. Due to the severe shortage of water resources, the ecological environment is often weak in intake area of water transfer project; water supply subsystem and ecological environment subsystem have a great influence on the whole water system. Taken into account such characteristics, an index system is constructed from the four aspects:water supply level, water use level, socio-economic level and ecological environmental level. The variable fuzzy evaluation model and radial basis function networks (RBF) are adopted by considering the complexity and vagueness of the composite system of regional water resources. Through the evaluation on the intake area of EW water transfer project in1980-2009and2015, the "state" and "potential" of water resources utilization in the intake area are analyzed, and the diversion scenarios are compared with non-diversion scenarios.
(4) Study on the evolution of water resources composite system in intake area. Understanding the evolution mechanism of water resources composite system is the foundation of monitoring and regulation of the development of socio-economic and water environment in intake area. Logistic growth model can not reflect the diversity of evolution pattern in the analysis on water resources complex system. So, Richards model is introducted to describe the evolution of water resources composite system based on the analysis on the characteristics of sustainable development of the composite system of regional water resources. Depending on the speed of system development, the evolution of the composite system of regional water resources model is divided into the type of rapid rise, the the type of slow rise and the type of symmetry. And the long-term evolution of the complex system of regional water resources for sustainable development is analyzed by using self-organizing evolutionary theory. It shows that the long-term evolution of the water resources system is not completely continuous path, but the combination of continuous gradient and intermittent fluctuations. Fluctuations imply the new opportunities and dynamics of development. Fluctuation phenomenon should be given greater prominence, but not be ignored because the water resources systems are more vulnerable in intake area. This is of great significance for improving the stability and robustness of the receiving area of water resources systems. Finally, the evolutionary characteristics of the intake area of EW water transfer project are analysized by using Richards evolutionary mechanisms.
(5) Analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitations in inter-basin water transfer areas. The local characteristics of multi-dimensional random variables are seldom considered in general modeling method of multivariate copula. A new modeling method, so called Pair-Copula Construction, is introduced to remedy this defect. Different types of copula distribution functions are allowed to be introduced in this method. Correspondingly, the related characteristics of complex multivariate can be described by a cascade of pair-copula acting on two variables at a time. In the analysis of asynchronism-synchronism of regional precipitations in EW inter-basin water transfer areas, pair-copula construction method is compared with general modeling method of multivariate copula. It shows that the local dependence structure would exist among hydrologic variables even in three dimensional cases. In this situation, general modeling method of multivariate copula would face difficulties in fitting distribution. However, pair-copula construction could capture the local information of hydrologic variables efficiently by introducing different types of copula distribution functions.
引文
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