中国货币流动性失衡研究
|
摘要
2003年至今,中国的宏观经济经历了流动性过剩到流动性不足的失衡周期,流动性问题已经成为我国宏观经济运行中的一个焦点,除了重大的现实意义以外,自从流动性作为一个宏观经济变量在上个世界六十年代被提出以来,尤其是流动性失衡问题,对传统的经济理论也产生了挑战。流动性失衡问题不仅困扰理论界,更重要的是研究流动性失衡对我国经济健康持续的发展有着重要的实践意义。
在借鉴国内外已有研究成果的基础上,对流动性的概念进行了界定,提出了流动性的三维内涵。即流动性的空间维度、时间维度和价值维度。并在内涵界定的基础上对相关概念进行了辩析。
基于理论分析,采用非瓦尔拉斯均衡的思想,以流动性的空间维为主线,遴选出流动性失衡的判定指标,得出对中国流动性状态的基本判定结果:2003年至2005年底中国宏观经济处于流动性失衡;自2006年至2009年3月表现为流动性不足,流动性在短期内完成交替周期,隐藏着中国存在流动性结构失衡的可能。对流动性主体间传递进行了分析,结果显示流动性在主体间传导不畅。在对流动性失衡短期交替原因的解析中,显露出中国股市所代表的虚拟经济对实体经济的挤出效应,导致流动性在虚拟经济和实体经济中的结构性失衡。
为了系统地研究流动性失衡的形成机理,首先在变量间单向单一影响的前提下,分析了流动性的影响因素,得出:货币乘数是影响流动性的重要因素,货币乘数构成中,法定准备金率和定期存款比率的贡献最大;广义货币量的增加可能是由于长期央行刺激经济而释放的货币量集中显现出了效果;在广义货币量向总产出的传导中,存在着结构的问题,具体表现在利率的传导路径不畅、股市的财富效应传导不畅、在拉动经济的三架马车中,国际贸易对总产出贡献最大,而消费和投资贡献少且贡献率较小。另外,虽然在2007年以后,中国受到美国金融危机的影响,对国际贸易等冲击较大,但仅就流动性体系而言,其受到国际流动性的输入效应比之国内影响要小得多,中国流动性失衡的主要原因仍是国内原因。
其次,在流动性价值维的内涵下,研究了流动性对经济的冲击,得出:流动性失衡会使得央行货币政策效力减损;流动性失衡对微观经济变量亦有显著影响,流动性结构性失衡下,经济变量反映与经济理论相悖,在我国表现为流动性过剩与总产出成负相关关系。流动性失衡使得企业价格压力增大,无论是流动性过剩还是流动性不足对价格冲击最大的是PPI,而无法有效地传递到CPI,企业风险增大。除此之外,流动性失衡还对投资结构和股价有直接影响。
最后,在交互影响和多元反馈机制下,采用路径分析的方法研究了流动性各相关变量之间的结构性问题,指出我国流动性失衡至少存在三个方面的结构性困扰:第一,流动性空间维的结构失衡,具体表现为货币流动性向机构流动性和市场流动性的传导不畅;第二,虚拟经济与实体经济的背离,导致了虚拟经济脱离了实体经济自行循环。这是中国流动性失衡最深层次的原因;第三,实体经济中货币传导路径失衡。
在上述研究基础上,提炼出影响流动性失衡的十六个指标,采取灰色关联分析及主成分分析法,构建了中国流动性失衡预警指标体系,采用模糊评判的方法得出结论,即在未来的12个月,中国仍然面临严重的流动性失衡问题。
基于中国流动性失衡的现状,从二个维度三个层面提出了针对流动性过剩的政策建议,提出注入流动性和疏导流动性两种治理流动性不足的对策。总体可以表述为:政策总量控制、机构信贷监管、市场引导监督、政策配套支持。
Since 2003, Liquidity had become a focus of macro economy because China experienced liquidity imbalance cycle from excess liquidity to the insufficient liquidity. Besides great realistic meaning, since the liquidity as a macro economic variable in the 1960s was put forward, it also had academic meaning because traditional economic theories were challenged. And more important, it had important practical significance for the sustainable development to do research on our country's economic imbalances liquidity.
The concept of liquidity is defined and three-dimensional connotation which is spatial dimension, time dimension and value dimension is put forward in this paper on the basis of research results at home and abroad. And on the premise of the definition of the concept, the differentiation of related notion is clarified.
Based on the theoretical analysis and the Non-Walrasian Equilibrium, with the spatial dimension as liquidity, we selected the indics of liquidity imbalance and determined the basic state of china’s liquidity: from 2003 to the end of 2005, it was excess liquidity in China and from 2006; the state of liquidity was the contrary. The short-time replacement of the state of liquidity implicated the structure unbalance in China’s economy. The analysis of transmission showed that liquidity between the three bodies is not free-flowing. With the research on the cause of short-time replacement of liquidity state, it was indicated that there was crowding-out effect from real economy to virtual economy which caused structural unbalance of liquidity in both economy.
In order to study the formation mechanism of liquidity imbalance systematically, we analyzed the factors of liquidity in the premise of single variable and it was indicated that money multiplier was the important factors affect liquidity ,and between the factors constituted of money multiplier, required reserve ratio and regular ratio was of the greatest contribution, furthermore, the increase of broad money maybe due to the release of money monetary aggregates by central bank to stimulate economy in long term; it existed structural problems for the transmission from monetary aggregates to GDP, for example, the impeded transmission path through interest rate and wealth effect though stock market and between the three carriage pull economy, the international trade was of the biggest contribution to output otherwise the contribution of consumption and investment rate was less. After 2007, although the international trade was suffered serious impact because of financial crisis, the input effect of liquidity aboard was less important than domestic factors. The main reason of China’s liquidity imbalance was also domestic.
The impact of liquidity to economy was also researched in the meaning of value dimension and it can be concluded that liquidity imbalance cause the loss of central bank’s monetary policy; liquidity imbalance also had obvious influence on microeconomic variable which could be showed in the negative correlation of excess liquidity and GDP and increasing risk of enterprise. In the condition of liquidity imbalance, variables ran counter to theory, and, among all kinds of price indics, PPI was suffered the most serious impact no matter what excess or insufficient which caused PPI can not be transmitted to CPI effectively. In addition, liquidity imbalance had direct effects on investment structural and stock price.
With multicomponent reaction and feedback effect, path analysis was used to research on structural problems, and at least three conclusions could be obtained: at first, the structural imbalance in spatial dimension was showed by not free-flowing among the three bodies of liquidity; the second, it was inconsistence of virtual economy and real economy brought about self-propelling cycle of virtual economy, which was the deep-seated reason of China’s liquidity imbalance; and the third, there was imbalance of money aggregate transmission path in real economy.
Based on the former research, through grey relational analysis and principal component analysis, sixteen indices were selected to make up warning index system of China’s liquidity imbalance, and it can be concluded that in the next twelve months, China will still faces a serious imbalance of liquidity through fuzzy evaluation method.
Based on the present situation of Chinese liquidity imbalance, pointed suggestions were brought forth form two dimension and three lays, which were amount control by monetary policy, supervision of credit and loan, guide of capital market and using supporting policies.
在借鉴国内外已有研究成果的基础上,对流动性的概念进行了界定,提出了流动性的三维内涵。即流动性的空间维度、时间维度和价值维度。并在内涵界定的基础上对相关概念进行了辩析。
基于理论分析,采用非瓦尔拉斯均衡的思想,以流动性的空间维为主线,遴选出流动性失衡的判定指标,得出对中国流动性状态的基本判定结果:2003年至2005年底中国宏观经济处于流动性失衡;自2006年至2009年3月表现为流动性不足,流动性在短期内完成交替周期,隐藏着中国存在流动性结构失衡的可能。对流动性主体间传递进行了分析,结果显示流动性在主体间传导不畅。在对流动性失衡短期交替原因的解析中,显露出中国股市所代表的虚拟经济对实体经济的挤出效应,导致流动性在虚拟经济和实体经济中的结构性失衡。
为了系统地研究流动性失衡的形成机理,首先在变量间单向单一影响的前提下,分析了流动性的影响因素,得出:货币乘数是影响流动性的重要因素,货币乘数构成中,法定准备金率和定期存款比率的贡献最大;广义货币量的增加可能是由于长期央行刺激经济而释放的货币量集中显现出了效果;在广义货币量向总产出的传导中,存在着结构的问题,具体表现在利率的传导路径不畅、股市的财富效应传导不畅、在拉动经济的三架马车中,国际贸易对总产出贡献最大,而消费和投资贡献少且贡献率较小。另外,虽然在2007年以后,中国受到美国金融危机的影响,对国际贸易等冲击较大,但仅就流动性体系而言,其受到国际流动性的输入效应比之国内影响要小得多,中国流动性失衡的主要原因仍是国内原因。
其次,在流动性价值维的内涵下,研究了流动性对经济的冲击,得出:流动性失衡会使得央行货币政策效力减损;流动性失衡对微观经济变量亦有显著影响,流动性结构性失衡下,经济变量反映与经济理论相悖,在我国表现为流动性过剩与总产出成负相关关系。流动性失衡使得企业价格压力增大,无论是流动性过剩还是流动性不足对价格冲击最大的是PPI,而无法有效地传递到CPI,企业风险增大。除此之外,流动性失衡还对投资结构和股价有直接影响。
最后,在交互影响和多元反馈机制下,采用路径分析的方法研究了流动性各相关变量之间的结构性问题,指出我国流动性失衡至少存在三个方面的结构性困扰:第一,流动性空间维的结构失衡,具体表现为货币流动性向机构流动性和市场流动性的传导不畅;第二,虚拟经济与实体经济的背离,导致了虚拟经济脱离了实体经济自行循环。这是中国流动性失衡最深层次的原因;第三,实体经济中货币传导路径失衡。
在上述研究基础上,提炼出影响流动性失衡的十六个指标,采取灰色关联分析及主成分分析法,构建了中国流动性失衡预警指标体系,采用模糊评判的方法得出结论,即在未来的12个月,中国仍然面临严重的流动性失衡问题。
基于中国流动性失衡的现状,从二个维度三个层面提出了针对流动性过剩的政策建议,提出注入流动性和疏导流动性两种治理流动性不足的对策。总体可以表述为:政策总量控制、机构信贷监管、市场引导监督、政策配套支持。
Since 2003, Liquidity had become a focus of macro economy because China experienced liquidity imbalance cycle from excess liquidity to the insufficient liquidity. Besides great realistic meaning, since the liquidity as a macro economic variable in the 1960s was put forward, it also had academic meaning because traditional economic theories were challenged. And more important, it had important practical significance for the sustainable development to do research on our country's economic imbalances liquidity.
The concept of liquidity is defined and three-dimensional connotation which is spatial dimension, time dimension and value dimension is put forward in this paper on the basis of research results at home and abroad. And on the premise of the definition of the concept, the differentiation of related notion is clarified.
Based on the theoretical analysis and the Non-Walrasian Equilibrium, with the spatial dimension as liquidity, we selected the indics of liquidity imbalance and determined the basic state of china’s liquidity: from 2003 to the end of 2005, it was excess liquidity in China and from 2006; the state of liquidity was the contrary. The short-time replacement of the state of liquidity implicated the structure unbalance in China’s economy. The analysis of transmission showed that liquidity between the three bodies is not free-flowing. With the research on the cause of short-time replacement of liquidity state, it was indicated that there was crowding-out effect from real economy to virtual economy which caused structural unbalance of liquidity in both economy.
In order to study the formation mechanism of liquidity imbalance systematically, we analyzed the factors of liquidity in the premise of single variable and it was indicated that money multiplier was the important factors affect liquidity ,and between the factors constituted of money multiplier, required reserve ratio and regular ratio was of the greatest contribution, furthermore, the increase of broad money maybe due to the release of money monetary aggregates by central bank to stimulate economy in long term; it existed structural problems for the transmission from monetary aggregates to GDP, for example, the impeded transmission path through interest rate and wealth effect though stock market and between the three carriage pull economy, the international trade was of the biggest contribution to output otherwise the contribution of consumption and investment rate was less. After 2007, although the international trade was suffered serious impact because of financial crisis, the input effect of liquidity aboard was less important than domestic factors. The main reason of China’s liquidity imbalance was also domestic.
The impact of liquidity to economy was also researched in the meaning of value dimension and it can be concluded that liquidity imbalance cause the loss of central bank’s monetary policy; liquidity imbalance also had obvious influence on microeconomic variable which could be showed in the negative correlation of excess liquidity and GDP and increasing risk of enterprise. In the condition of liquidity imbalance, variables ran counter to theory, and, among all kinds of price indics, PPI was suffered the most serious impact no matter what excess or insufficient which caused PPI can not be transmitted to CPI effectively. In addition, liquidity imbalance had direct effects on investment structural and stock price.
With multicomponent reaction and feedback effect, path analysis was used to research on structural problems, and at least three conclusions could be obtained: at first, the structural imbalance in spatial dimension was showed by not free-flowing among the three bodies of liquidity; the second, it was inconsistence of virtual economy and real economy brought about self-propelling cycle of virtual economy, which was the deep-seated reason of China’s liquidity imbalance; and the third, there was imbalance of money aggregate transmission path in real economy.
Based on the former research, through grey relational analysis and principal component analysis, sixteen indices were selected to make up warning index system of China’s liquidity imbalance, and it can be concluded that in the next twelve months, China will still faces a serious imbalance of liquidity through fuzzy evaluation method.
Based on the present situation of Chinese liquidity imbalance, pointed suggestions were brought forth form two dimension and three lays, which were amount control by monetary policy, supervision of credit and loan, guide of capital market and using supporting policies.
引文
[1]温家宝.政府工作报告[R].2007-3-15
[2]中国人民银行.2007年第3季度货币政策执行报告[R] .2007-11-8
[3]陆磊.论银行体系的流动性过剩[J].金融研究,2007,1:1-11
[4]约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯.就业利息与货币通论[M] .陕西人民出版社,2004
[5]伍海华.西方货币金融理论[M].中国金融出版社.2002
[6] Grenville?S. International liquidity[R].Australia: Lowy institute for international policy ,2007
[7]国际货币基金组织.货币与金融统计手册.2002
[8] Schinasi? G?J. and M? Hargraves. Boom and bust in asset markets in the 1980s: Causes and consequences [J]. Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook. International Monetary Fund.1993
[9] Baks?K and C? Kramer. Global liquidity and asset prices: measurement. implications and spillovers[C]. IMF working paper n. 168. 1999
[10] Ganley?J. Surplus liquidity: Implications for central banks[R]England: Centre for central banking studies bank of England, lecture series no.3.2003
[11]Ruffer?R& Stracca?L. What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? [C].ECB working paper n 96.2006(12)
[12] Kevin warsh . Hedge funds.[DB/OL]. http://www.bis.org/review/r070713e.pdf
[13] Randall S Kroszner.International capital flows and the emerging market economies[DB/OL] http://www.bis.org/review/r070516e.pdf
[14] Sousa?J and A?Zaghin. Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers [C]. ECB working paper n. 309.2003
[15] Polleit?T & Gerdesmeiet?Dieter. Measures of excess liquidity[C]. Business School of Finance & Management Working Paper No.65.2005(8)
[16] Hallman, J. J., Porter, R. D., Small, D. H. Is the price level tied to the M2 monetary aggregate in the long un?[J]. American Economic Review, 1991,Vol. 81, No. 4, pp. 841– 858.
[17] Gerlach?S& Svensson?L.E.O. Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 1649-72. 2003.
[18]管清友,流动性过剩距通胀仅一步之遥[EB/OL].http://guanqingyou.blog.cnstock.com/ archives/2006/21603.html. 2006-9-27
[19]夏彬,陈道富.中国流动性报告[EB/OL].http:finance.sina.com.cn/china/ hgjj/20070709/ 14493766442.shtml.2007.
[20]巴曙松.观察流动性过剩的国际视角[J] .金融管理与研究,2007,10:21-23
[21]彭兴韵.流动性.流动性过剩与货币政策[J] .经济研究,2007,11:58-70
[22]唐双宁.关于解决流动性过剩问题的初步思考[J] .经济研究,2007,9:4-10
[23]张雪春.流动性过剩:现状分析与政策建议[J] .金融研究,2007,8:1-14
[24]钱小安.流动性过剩与货币调控[J] .金融研究,2007,8:15-30
[25]袁鹰.开放经济条件下政治经济周期对货币秩序的影响分析——对当前“流动性过剩”问题的一种新解释.武汉金融,2007,8:21-23
[26]李成,姜柳.从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩[J] .金融论坛,2006,09:54-58
[27]黄晓龙.全球失衡、流动性过剩与货币危机—基于非均衡国际货币体系的分析视角[J].金融研究,2007,8:31-46
[28]任碧云,王越凤.中国流动性过剩原因辨析[J] .经济理论与经济管理,2007,2:19-25
[29]肖蔚.创新流动性管理:谨防由“过剩”掉入“黑洞”[J] .武汉金融,2007,7:33-34
[30]丁骋骋.流动性过剩与流动性悖论[J].财经理论与实践.2007,28:15-19
[31]李治国.流动性过剩:基于货币供给决定机制的解析[J] .上海管理科学,2007,2:1-6
[32]朱庆.解读当前市场流动性过剩[J] .金融理论与实践,2006,12:13-15
[33]赵磊.对当前我国流动性过剩问题的深层思考[J] .南方金融,2007,7:19-21
[34]王刚,董方军,袁伦渠.化解银行流动性过剩问题的对策探析[J].价格理论与实践,2007,4:70-71
[35]杨晨.当前我国流动性过剩的原因、危害及对策[J].西部财会,2007,7:53-55
[36]张晋生.流动性过剩的影响、成因及对策[J].经济与管理研究,2007,4:53-59
[37]钟阳.流动性过剩的三个层次原因分析[J].黑龙江八一农垦大学学报,2007,19:110-112
[38]唐勇进.基于宏观调控下的流动性过剩思考[J] .财经界,2007,6:25-28
[39]张长征.从制度层面解决我国流动性过剩[J] .广西金融研究,2007,5:56-58
[40]何自云,周世锋,连玮.流动性过剩的根源[J] .农村金融研究,2005,12:6-8
[41]刘震,张惠.解决银行业流动性过剩的根本-改善金融生态[J].财经科学,2006,7:7-12
[42]卜永祥.流动性过剩的特征、成因及调控[J] .经济学动态.2007,3:11-17
[43]孔立平,朱志国.对外汇储备增长与流动性过剩关系的理论分析和实证检验[J].济南金融,2007,12
[44]孙建潮.基于宏观角度的商业银行流动性过剩分析[J].财经科学,2006,7:1-6
[45]苗启虎.我国银行体系流动性过剩原因的实证分析[J] .海南金融,2007.5:24-26
[46]谢罗奇,龚伟强.对2001-2006年间我国商业银行流动性过剩成因的实证分析[J].济南金融,2007,3:6-13
[47]张国忠.流动性滞存与通货紧缩[J].金融理论与教学,2003,3:18-22
[48]胡援成,彭美玲,段希文.我国股市存在流动性效应吗?——基于宏观层面长、短期流动性影响的考察[W] .CFRN
[49]胡月晓.近忧通缩远忧通账[EB/OL] .http://finance.qq.com/a/20081029/001246.htm
[50]涂永红,戴稳胜.国际流动性过剩对中国经济的影响分析[J] .货币金融评论,2007,7、8:26-39
[51]叶少波.我国流动性过剩问题的统计研究[D].湖南大学,2008.5
[52]古今汉语词典.商务印书馆.2002
[53]现代汉语辞典.商务印书馆.2002
[54]夏新斌,曾令华.“流动性过剩”研究综述(上)—流动性过剩的内涵、衡量标准及产生机制[J].技术经济与管理研究,2009,1:88-91
[55]越晓.“流动性过剩”掩盖下的“流动性扭曲”[J].中外管理,2008,9:22
[56]陈茜.对我国当前货币政策非有效性的思考[J].福建金融管理干部学院学报,2008,5:7-12
[57]王千.房地产的虚拟性与宏观经济稳定[J] .中国工业经济,2006,12:13-20
[58]王叙果.国际流动性变化的传导机制分析[J] .学术界,2008,6:69-77
[59]金成晓,王猛.国外流动性过剩理论的最新发展:一个文献综述[J].江汉论坛,2008,9:19-22
[60]尹小兵.货币价值理论:一个综述[J].金融研究,2006,9:179-190
[61]刘毅,曹锐钢.经济开放与经济增长效应研究的文献综述[J].上海金融,2006,12:8-11
[62]刘明康.慎用三率收缩流动性[N].东方早报,2008-9-4
[63]彭兴韵.流动性、流动性过剩与货币政策[J].理论参考,2008,2:28-32
[64]张会清,王剑.中央银行视角下的流动性[J].上海金融,2007,3:24-27
[65]张新泽.关于流动性几个问题的研究[J].金融研究,2008,3:42-57
[66]吴建军.中国M2/GDP过高-基于IS-LM模型的分析[J].金融研究,2007,5
[67]潘沁,徐康宁.全球流动性过剩传导的典型化事实研究[J].世界经济研究,2008,8:25-43
[68]刘春航,张新.“繁华预期”、流动性变化和资产价格[J].金融研究,2007,6
[69]方先明,裴平,张谊浩.外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应和货币冲销政策的有效性-基于中国统计数据的实证检验[J].金融研究,2006,7
[70]张文.经济货币化进程与内生性货币供给-关于中国高M2/GDP比率的货币分析[J].金融研究,2008,2:13-32
[71]赵振全,于震,刘淼.金融加速器效应在中国存在吗?[J].经济研究,2007,6:27-38
[72]陈六傅,刘厚俊.人民币汇率的价格传递效应-基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2007,4
[73]赵华.人民币汇率与利率之间的价格和波动溢出效应研究[J].金融研究,2007,3
[74]卢万青,陈建梁.人民币汇率变动对我国经济增长的实证研究[J].金融研究,2007,2
[75]魏巍贤.外汇市场压力测度理论研究[J].预测,1999,3
[76]张霖.外汇储备对人民币汇率压力测度的实证分析[J].统计观察,2005,2
[77] IMF. Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability[R].1998
[78] IMF. Exchange market pressure ,Currency Crises ,and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Market[R].2002
[79]张明.全球流动性过剩的测量、根源和风险涵义[R].中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作报告,NO.0702 2007
[80]刘艾.基于不同视角下我国流动性过剩的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2007,12:88-91
[81]孙建潮.基于宏观角度的商业银行流动性过剩分析[J].财经科学,2006,7
[82]任兆璋,于孝建.我国流动性过剩的实证分析[J].南方金融,2007,2:9-11
[83]李治国,徐寒飞.中国货币之谜与资金流动性过剩成因分析[J].金融与经济,2007,3:17-21
[84]张锐.流动性过剩的经济学分析[J].金融理论与实践,2007,7:30-34
[85]刘洁琼,刘传哲,秦洋.我国货币流动生失衡状况测度体系的构建与应用[J].金融发展研究,2006,5:17-21
[86]朱睿.商业银行流动性过剩分析及对策研究[J].金融理论与实践,2006,9:27-28
[87]陈学军.全球流动性不确定性与中央银行的思考[J].上海金融,2008,5:12-15
[88] Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.Financial globalization and excess liquidity: monetary policies and new 2007-10-21
[89]阎豫桂.中国经济周期波动新特征:一个流动性的解释[J].南方金融,2008,10:18-22
[90]刘洁.英国1982~1990年流动性过剩情况及政策分析[J].证券市场导报,2008,10:52-64
[91] Daniel L.Thornton. The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation[R].Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,2009,1-2
[92] Ramón Adalid1 and Carsten Detken. Excessive Liquidity and Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles[R] ECB Working Paper,2006
[93]李学林,张俊.我国房地产价格上涨与流动性过剩关系的实证研究[J].中国物价,2008.8:50-53
[94] Evan Tanner. Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Markets[R].IMF Working Paper,2002-2-14
[95]唐安宝.金融学[M].江苏徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2005版
[96]张文彤.SPSS统计分析高级教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004版
[97]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005版
[98]王爱俭.虚拟经济合理规模与风险预警研究[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2007版
[99]秦洋.流动性过剩的结构特征与通货紧缩—对中国的实证研究[C].徐州:中国矿业大学管理学院,2008
[100]杜强.贾丽艳.SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2009.3
[101]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模-EVIEWS应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006版
[102]何凌云.中国货币政策传导效率问题研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学管理学院,2008
[103]刘金全,范剑青.中国经济周期的非对称性和相关性研究[J].经济研究,2001,5:28-37
[104]龚刚,林毅夫.过度反应:中国经济“缩长”之解释[J].经济研究,2007,4:53-66
[105]薛滢.当前宏观经济环境下对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型适用性的考察[J].经济论坛,2008,3:41-45
[106]刘洁琼,刘传哲,何凌云.我国货币流动性过剩的价格效应研究[J].金融发展研究,2007,8:39-42
[107]尹久,陈育红.流动性过剩的新特点与治理创新[J].上海金融,2008,2:87-90
[108]董玉华,蒋剑平.“双过剩”下国有银行的困境与出路[J].农村金融研究,2006,2:19-21
[109] ELVIO DAL BOSCO. Central Banks’Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves [J]. Open economies review 9:S1 665–683 (1998)
[110] JAKOB B. MADSEN, MICHAEL McALEER. Direct Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis under Uncertainty, Inflationary Expectations and Liquidity Constraints[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, Spring 2000, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 229-252
[111] Filer, L., Fisher, J.D., Do liquidity constraints generate excess sensitivity ..., Journal of Macroeconomics (2007), doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.11.005
[112] Ulrich Bindseil, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Astrid Hirsch, Benedict Weller. Excess reserves and the implementation of monetary policy of the ECB[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling 28 (2006) 491–510
[113]付明卫,左柏云.不同货币总量的比较及其对中国的启示[J].上海金融,2008,3:42-46
[114]曹晨光.产能、流动性“双过剩”给银行业带来的风险及监管对策[J].金融理论与实践,2007,5:56-58
[115]黄昌利,王艳萍.从超额存款准备金率看流动性过剩问题[J].金融与经济,2008,8:24-26
[116]聂兆祝,王万峰.对当前银行业流动性过剩的分析[J].西南金融,2006,8:21-23
[117]刘逖,叶武.对我国股市流动性问题的几点思考[J].上海金融,2008,3:57-60
[118]陈中.宏观视角的流动性测度方法研究[D].开封:河南大学工商管理学院,2008
[119]马晓琛.货币政策应对流动性过剩有效性研究——基于2005.7~2007.12数据的实证分析[J].现代经济,2008,7:165-167
[120]张红军,王爱民,杨朝军.基于微观视角的流动性危机模型及应用[J].管理评论,2008,20:3-9
[121]陈青,李子白.我国流动性调整下的CAPM研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,6:66-78
[122]张建军.流动性导流——中国货币需求及现阶段流动性过剩问题研究[J].南方金融,2008,8:5-21
[123]吉宏,聂晶,邱海滢.流动性过剩:表征、内源性与化解策略[J].经济问题,2008,8:26-29
[124]王智波.流动性过剩的界定、度量与成因[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2008,8:49-52
[125]中国人民银行上海总部调查统计研究部课题组.流动性过剩对我国一般物价水平的影响[J].上海金融,2008,3:5-9
[126]李扬,殷剑峰.流动性过剩压力下政府主导的金融产品创新[J].新金融,2006,9:3-7
[127]刘佳,李妍,袁媛.流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫[J].特区经济,2008,7:74-76
[128]王珍珠.浅析我国的流动性过剩与货币政策设计[J].消费导刊,2009,9:80
[129]刘超.全球货币流动性过剩原因分析[J].商场现代化,2006,9:329
[130]专访余永定:光靠货币政策不能有效抑制股市泡沫[EB/OL]. http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/200705/26/t20070526_11500311_1.shtml
[131]谭韵.刺激居民消费的财税政策选择[J].税务研究,2009,1:22-26
[132]邓聿文.刺激内需应以稳就业和保收入为主[J].理论导报,2009,2:12
[133]易宪容.扩大内需的根本是引导居民最终消费[J].数据,2009,3:20-21
[134]天勤.启动民间消费是根本大计[J].国际融资,2009,1:31-34
[135]刘成海.中国刺激消费扩大内需的理论与对策—基于相对消费理论模型的分析[J].辽宁经济,2009,3:38-40
[2]中国人民银行.2007年第3季度货币政策执行报告[R] .2007-11-8
[3]陆磊.论银行体系的流动性过剩[J].金融研究,2007,1:1-11
[4]约翰?梅纳德?凯恩斯.就业利息与货币通论[M] .陕西人民出版社,2004
[5]伍海华.西方货币金融理论[M].中国金融出版社.2002
[6] Grenville?S. International liquidity[R].Australia: Lowy institute for international policy ,2007
[7]国际货币基金组织.货币与金融统计手册.2002
[8] Schinasi? G?J. and M? Hargraves. Boom and bust in asset markets in the 1980s: Causes and consequences [J]. Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook. International Monetary Fund.1993
[9] Baks?K and C? Kramer. Global liquidity and asset prices: measurement. implications and spillovers[C]. IMF working paper n. 168. 1999
[10] Ganley?J. Surplus liquidity: Implications for central banks[R]England: Centre for central banking studies bank of England, lecture series no.3.2003
[11]Ruffer?R& Stracca?L. What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? [C].ECB working paper n 96.2006(12)
[12] Kevin warsh . Hedge funds.[DB/OL]. http://www.bis.org/review/r070713e.pdf
[13] Randall S Kroszner.International capital flows and the emerging market economies[DB/OL] http://www.bis.org/review/r070516e.pdf
[14] Sousa?J and A?Zaghin. Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers [C]. ECB working paper n. 309.2003
[15] Polleit?T & Gerdesmeiet?Dieter. Measures of excess liquidity[C]. Business School of Finance & Management Working Paper No.65.2005(8)
[16] Hallman, J. J., Porter, R. D., Small, D. H. Is the price level tied to the M2 monetary aggregate in the long un?[J]. American Economic Review, 1991,Vol. 81, No. 4, pp. 841– 858.
[17] Gerlach?S& Svensson?L.E.O. Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 1649-72. 2003.
[18]管清友,流动性过剩距通胀仅一步之遥[EB/OL].http://guanqingyou.blog.cnstock.com/ archives/2006/21603.html. 2006-9-27
[19]夏彬,陈道富.中国流动性报告[EB/OL].http:finance.sina.com.cn/china/ hgjj/20070709/ 14493766442.shtml.2007.
[20]巴曙松.观察流动性过剩的国际视角[J] .金融管理与研究,2007,10:21-23
[21]彭兴韵.流动性.流动性过剩与货币政策[J] .经济研究,2007,11:58-70
[22]唐双宁.关于解决流动性过剩问题的初步思考[J] .经济研究,2007,9:4-10
[23]张雪春.流动性过剩:现状分析与政策建议[J] .金融研究,2007,8:1-14
[24]钱小安.流动性过剩与货币调控[J] .金融研究,2007,8:15-30
[25]袁鹰.开放经济条件下政治经济周期对货币秩序的影响分析——对当前“流动性过剩”问题的一种新解释.武汉金融,2007,8:21-23
[26]李成,姜柳.从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩[J] .金融论坛,2006,09:54-58
[27]黄晓龙.全球失衡、流动性过剩与货币危机—基于非均衡国际货币体系的分析视角[J].金融研究,2007,8:31-46
[28]任碧云,王越凤.中国流动性过剩原因辨析[J] .经济理论与经济管理,2007,2:19-25
[29]肖蔚.创新流动性管理:谨防由“过剩”掉入“黑洞”[J] .武汉金融,2007,7:33-34
[30]丁骋骋.流动性过剩与流动性悖论[J].财经理论与实践.2007,28:15-19
[31]李治国.流动性过剩:基于货币供给决定机制的解析[J] .上海管理科学,2007,2:1-6
[32]朱庆.解读当前市场流动性过剩[J] .金融理论与实践,2006,12:13-15
[33]赵磊.对当前我国流动性过剩问题的深层思考[J] .南方金融,2007,7:19-21
[34]王刚,董方军,袁伦渠.化解银行流动性过剩问题的对策探析[J].价格理论与实践,2007,4:70-71
[35]杨晨.当前我国流动性过剩的原因、危害及对策[J].西部财会,2007,7:53-55
[36]张晋生.流动性过剩的影响、成因及对策[J].经济与管理研究,2007,4:53-59
[37]钟阳.流动性过剩的三个层次原因分析[J].黑龙江八一农垦大学学报,2007,19:110-112
[38]唐勇进.基于宏观调控下的流动性过剩思考[J] .财经界,2007,6:25-28
[39]张长征.从制度层面解决我国流动性过剩[J] .广西金融研究,2007,5:56-58
[40]何自云,周世锋,连玮.流动性过剩的根源[J] .农村金融研究,2005,12:6-8
[41]刘震,张惠.解决银行业流动性过剩的根本-改善金融生态[J].财经科学,2006,7:7-12
[42]卜永祥.流动性过剩的特征、成因及调控[J] .经济学动态.2007,3:11-17
[43]孔立平,朱志国.对外汇储备增长与流动性过剩关系的理论分析和实证检验[J].济南金融,2007,12
[44]孙建潮.基于宏观角度的商业银行流动性过剩分析[J].财经科学,2006,7:1-6
[45]苗启虎.我国银行体系流动性过剩原因的实证分析[J] .海南金融,2007.5:24-26
[46]谢罗奇,龚伟强.对2001-2006年间我国商业银行流动性过剩成因的实证分析[J].济南金融,2007,3:6-13
[47]张国忠.流动性滞存与通货紧缩[J].金融理论与教学,2003,3:18-22
[48]胡援成,彭美玲,段希文.我国股市存在流动性效应吗?——基于宏观层面长、短期流动性影响的考察[W] .CFRN
[49]胡月晓.近忧通缩远忧通账[EB/OL] .http://finance.qq.com/a/20081029/001246.htm
[50]涂永红,戴稳胜.国际流动性过剩对中国经济的影响分析[J] .货币金融评论,2007,7、8:26-39
[51]叶少波.我国流动性过剩问题的统计研究[D].湖南大学,2008.5
[52]古今汉语词典.商务印书馆.2002
[53]现代汉语辞典.商务印书馆.2002
[54]夏新斌,曾令华.“流动性过剩”研究综述(上)—流动性过剩的内涵、衡量标准及产生机制[J].技术经济与管理研究,2009,1:88-91
[55]越晓.“流动性过剩”掩盖下的“流动性扭曲”[J].中外管理,2008,9:22
[56]陈茜.对我国当前货币政策非有效性的思考[J].福建金融管理干部学院学报,2008,5:7-12
[57]王千.房地产的虚拟性与宏观经济稳定[J] .中国工业经济,2006,12:13-20
[58]王叙果.国际流动性变化的传导机制分析[J] .学术界,2008,6:69-77
[59]金成晓,王猛.国外流动性过剩理论的最新发展:一个文献综述[J].江汉论坛,2008,9:19-22
[60]尹小兵.货币价值理论:一个综述[J].金融研究,2006,9:179-190
[61]刘毅,曹锐钢.经济开放与经济增长效应研究的文献综述[J].上海金融,2006,12:8-11
[62]刘明康.慎用三率收缩流动性[N].东方早报,2008-9-4
[63]彭兴韵.流动性、流动性过剩与货币政策[J].理论参考,2008,2:28-32
[64]张会清,王剑.中央银行视角下的流动性[J].上海金融,2007,3:24-27
[65]张新泽.关于流动性几个问题的研究[J].金融研究,2008,3:42-57
[66]吴建军.中国M2/GDP过高-基于IS-LM模型的分析[J].金融研究,2007,5
[67]潘沁,徐康宁.全球流动性过剩传导的典型化事实研究[J].世界经济研究,2008,8:25-43
[68]刘春航,张新.“繁华预期”、流动性变化和资产价格[J].金融研究,2007,6
[69]方先明,裴平,张谊浩.外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应和货币冲销政策的有效性-基于中国统计数据的实证检验[J].金融研究,2006,7
[70]张文.经济货币化进程与内生性货币供给-关于中国高M2/GDP比率的货币分析[J].金融研究,2008,2:13-32
[71]赵振全,于震,刘淼.金融加速器效应在中国存在吗?[J].经济研究,2007,6:27-38
[72]陈六傅,刘厚俊.人民币汇率的价格传递效应-基于VAR模型的实证分析[J].金融研究,2007,4
[73]赵华.人民币汇率与利率之间的价格和波动溢出效应研究[J].金融研究,2007,3
[74]卢万青,陈建梁.人民币汇率变动对我国经济增长的实证研究[J].金融研究,2007,2
[75]魏巍贤.外汇市场压力测度理论研究[J].预测,1999,3
[76]张霖.外汇储备对人民币汇率压力测度的实证分析[J].统计观察,2005,2
[77] IMF. Financial Crises: Characteristics and Indicators of Vulnerability[R].1998
[78] IMF. Exchange market pressure ,Currency Crises ,and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Market[R].2002
[79]张明.全球流动性过剩的测量、根源和风险涵义[R].中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究中心工作报告,NO.0702 2007
[80]刘艾.基于不同视角下我国流动性过剩的实证分析[J].东南亚纵横,2007,12:88-91
[81]孙建潮.基于宏观角度的商业银行流动性过剩分析[J].财经科学,2006,7
[82]任兆璋,于孝建.我国流动性过剩的实证分析[J].南方金融,2007,2:9-11
[83]李治国,徐寒飞.中国货币之谜与资金流动性过剩成因分析[J].金融与经济,2007,3:17-21
[84]张锐.流动性过剩的经济学分析[J].金融理论与实践,2007,7:30-34
[85]刘洁琼,刘传哲,秦洋.我国货币流动生失衡状况测度体系的构建与应用[J].金融发展研究,2006,5:17-21
[86]朱睿.商业银行流动性过剩分析及对策研究[J].金融理论与实践,2006,9:27-28
[87]陈学军.全球流动性不确定性与中央银行的思考[J].上海金融,2008,5:12-15
[88] Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.Financial globalization and excess liquidity: monetary policies and new 2007-10-21
[89]阎豫桂.中国经济周期波动新特征:一个流动性的解释[J].南方金融,2008,10:18-22
[90]刘洁.英国1982~1990年流动性过剩情况及政策分析[J].证券市场导报,2008,10:52-64
[91] Daniel L.Thornton. The Fed, Liquidity, and Credit Allocation[R].Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Review,2009,1-2
[92] Ramón Adalid1 and Carsten Detken. Excessive Liquidity and Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles[R] ECB Working Paper,2006
[93]李学林,张俊.我国房地产价格上涨与流动性过剩关系的实证研究[J].中国物价,2008.8:50-53
[94] Evan Tanner. Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence from Emerging Markets[R].IMF Working Paper,2002-2-14
[95]唐安宝.金融学[M].江苏徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2005版
[96]张文彤.SPSS统计分析高级教程[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004版
[97]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2005版
[98]王爱俭.虚拟经济合理规模与风险预警研究[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2007版
[99]秦洋.流动性过剩的结构特征与通货紧缩—对中国的实证研究[C].徐州:中国矿业大学管理学院,2008
[100]杜强.贾丽艳.SPSS统计分析从入门到精通[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2009.3
[101]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模-EVIEWS应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006版
[102]何凌云.中国货币政策传导效率问题研究[D].徐州:中国矿业大学管理学院,2008
[103]刘金全,范剑青.中国经济周期的非对称性和相关性研究[J].经济研究,2001,5:28-37
[104]龚刚,林毅夫.过度反应:中国经济“缩长”之解释[J].经济研究,2007,4:53-66
[105]薛滢.当前宏观经济环境下对蒙代尔-弗莱明模型适用性的考察[J].经济论坛,2008,3:41-45
[106]刘洁琼,刘传哲,何凌云.我国货币流动性过剩的价格效应研究[J].金融发展研究,2007,8:39-42
[107]尹久,陈育红.流动性过剩的新特点与治理创新[J].上海金融,2008,2:87-90
[108]董玉华,蒋剑平.“双过剩”下国有银行的困境与出路[J].农村金融研究,2006,2:19-21
[109] ELVIO DAL BOSCO. Central Banks’Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves [J]. Open economies review 9:S1 665–683 (1998)
[110] JAKOB B. MADSEN, MICHAEL McALEER. Direct Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis under Uncertainty, Inflationary Expectations and Liquidity Constraints[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, Spring 2000, Vol. 22, No. 2, pp. 229-252
[111] Filer, L., Fisher, J.D., Do liquidity constraints generate excess sensitivity ..., Journal of Macroeconomics (2007), doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.11.005
[112] Ulrich Bindseil, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, Astrid Hirsch, Benedict Weller. Excess reserves and the implementation of monetary policy of the ECB[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling 28 (2006) 491–510
[113]付明卫,左柏云.不同货币总量的比较及其对中国的启示[J].上海金融,2008,3:42-46
[114]曹晨光.产能、流动性“双过剩”给银行业带来的风险及监管对策[J].金融理论与实践,2007,5:56-58
[115]黄昌利,王艳萍.从超额存款准备金率看流动性过剩问题[J].金融与经济,2008,8:24-26
[116]聂兆祝,王万峰.对当前银行业流动性过剩的分析[J].西南金融,2006,8:21-23
[117]刘逖,叶武.对我国股市流动性问题的几点思考[J].上海金融,2008,3:57-60
[118]陈中.宏观视角的流动性测度方法研究[D].开封:河南大学工商管理学院,2008
[119]马晓琛.货币政策应对流动性过剩有效性研究——基于2005.7~2007.12数据的实证分析[J].现代经济,2008,7:165-167
[120]张红军,王爱民,杨朝军.基于微观视角的流动性危机模型及应用[J].管理评论,2008,20:3-9
[121]陈青,李子白.我国流动性调整下的CAPM研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,6:66-78
[122]张建军.流动性导流——中国货币需求及现阶段流动性过剩问题研究[J].南方金融,2008,8:5-21
[123]吉宏,聂晶,邱海滢.流动性过剩:表征、内源性与化解策略[J].经济问题,2008,8:26-29
[124]王智波.流动性过剩的界定、度量与成因[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2008,8:49-52
[125]中国人民银行上海总部调查统计研究部课题组.流动性过剩对我国一般物价水平的影响[J].上海金融,2008,3:5-9
[126]李扬,殷剑峰.流动性过剩压力下政府主导的金融产品创新[J].新金融,2006,9:3-7
[127]刘佳,李妍,袁媛.流动性过剩与资产价格泡沫[J].特区经济,2008,7:74-76
[128]王珍珠.浅析我国的流动性过剩与货币政策设计[J].消费导刊,2009,9:80
[129]刘超.全球货币流动性过剩原因分析[J].商场现代化,2006,9:329
[130]专访余永定:光靠货币政策不能有效抑制股市泡沫[EB/OL]. http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/200705/26/t20070526_11500311_1.shtml
[131]谭韵.刺激居民消费的财税政策选择[J].税务研究,2009,1:22-26
[132]邓聿文.刺激内需应以稳就业和保收入为主[J].理论导报,2009,2:12
[133]易宪容.扩大内需的根本是引导居民最终消费[J].数据,2009,3:20-21
[134]天勤.启动民间消费是根本大计[J].国际融资,2009,1:31-34
[135]刘成海.中国刺激消费扩大内需的理论与对策—基于相对消费理论模型的分析[J].辽宁经济,2009,3:38-40