对中国创业活动经济效应的实证研究
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摘要
自中国实行对外开放以来,经济结构逐渐变革,很多机遇孕育而生,很大程度上促进了经济的发展。例如,政府的市场开放带来了新的经济机遇。同时,高端科技的不断涌现也为经济的发展注入了新的活力。另一方面,随着经济全球化的不断发展,企业更容易进入中国市场,并挖掘中国市场存在的巨大潜力。中国经济持续快速的增长,推动了需求增长,不断吸引着来自其他国家的企业。这种现象就是中国创业活动的增值。
然而,现有文献对中国创业活动经济效应的实证研究十分缺乏。尽管已经有不少与创业活动和经济增长相关的理论研究,但是对这些理论模式的实证验证还有待改进。由于多种因素(例如复杂的统计方法)的限制,现有的研究往往缺乏系统性,从而导致得到的研究结论过于简单,而且不够细致,研究的意义和贡献十分有限。很多研究仅仅得到诸如活跃的创业活动拉动经济的增长这样的简单结论。然而,创业活动对经济效应的作用模式十分复杂,而不仅仅是这样单一的正向促进关系。因此,本论文在构建系统性的框架后,采用新的统计方法对中国创业活动的经济效应进行了更深层次的研究。
本论文根据不同的创业类型、地区、活动时长对创业活动的经济效应进行了回归分析。数据来源包括《中国统计年鉴》、《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》《中国高新技术行业统计年鉴》、《中国科学技术统计年鉴》和《中国地区经济统计年鉴》等各种年鉴。本论文由以下几部分组成：第2章定义创业活动以及经济效应。第3章回顾以前中国创业活动经济效应研究的相关文献,第4、5章,就创业活动对就业带来的影响进行实证研究,并运用阿尔蒙方法,分析创业活动对就业带来的动态效应。第6章,依据内生增长理论和空间计量经济学最近的创新方法,分析创业活动对GDP增长带来的影响。第7章,从区域经济的角度分析了创业活动是如何促进区域创新的。第8章结论。
第2章明确创业活动的概念,并阐明在中国背景下“创业活动”的操作定义。在这篇论文中,我们依然采用传统的创业活动定义,即将创业活动定义为“自主创业活动”。自主创业是个人通过运用自己的专业特长或商业技能获取收入,而没有工资报酬。有些研究者认为这样的定义太广泛,他们主张只有“雇佣创业’(雇佣他人来运营企业)是真正的创业。不过,另外一些研究者认为该定义太狭窄。他们认为从现有组织开始的“公司创业”也算是自主创业活动。但是,传统定义方式是在研究不同的时间跨度、不同地区的创业问题时,最有效和一致的方式。
为了把企业运营活动作为区域创业活动代理,我们使用两种不同的变量。我们对地区中私营企业的成立和个体户的出现使用不同的代理变量。尽管私营企业更加适合创新性创业者的定义,但是通过两个变量,我们可以把不同类型的创业活动取得的经济效应进行对比。通常“经济效应”的定义是灾害、事件及政策对就业和收入带来的宏观经济效应。一般通过对经济增长情况的变化及相关工作的变化或者个人收入等方面对经济效应进行测量。因此,“经济效应”概念在本质上蕴含着宏观经济的含义。
在论文中,我们首先从就业变化和GDP增长的角度对经济效应进行评估。评估过程中有一点需要关注,即创业活动与本质上具有短暂性的其他一般事件、政策及自然灾害有很大不同。创业活动是一个经济现象,有很多的经济参与者,并且会持续很长的一段时间,因此应该把创业活动视为经济宏观变量进行研究。对既存经济模式引入这些变量需要对模型的基本机制进行重组,而不是简单地加入一些解释说明的变量。我们通过采用最先进的理论(劳动需求理论、内生增长理论、知识累计理论),利用经济模型回归分析的整个微观基础来完成该重组过程。
另外,我们在相同的背景下对创业活动的创新效应进行分析。因为创业活动本身并不只是一个简单的投资,不仅对就业有的直接推动作用,而且通过推动创新对企业也会产生间接影响。例如,创业活动通常会引进新的生产系统、技术、组织,这个过程会导致新知识的不断传播。因此,我们在分析此类宏观现象的活动时不能忽略创业活动带来的创新效应。我们假设是创业活动通过促进创新提高了整个的经济效率,最终对宏观经济变量产生了积极的影响。
第3章回顾了以前中国的创业活动。改革开放后,个体经济活动得以保证,中国经济开始迅速增长。同时,中国处在发展中国家的过渡阶段,创业活动对经济结构影响至关重要。在此背景下,我们引入了熊彼特的创业租金概念。另外,创业精神和制度变迁之间的关系也十分值得关注。创业家实行改革,出现了很多效仿者,从根本上改变了传统秩序,不断更新经济活动者的知识。创业活动通过带动各地创新来促进当地经济的增长,并通过集聚效应激活当地经济,促进当地经济的发展。
在中国现在的发展阶段,创业活动的知识外溢效应对促进当地经济发展至关重要。随着农村人口向城镇的迁移,城市发展的不断扩大,中国城市化的进程越好越快,这个过程产生了许多促进经济发展的机遇。由于城市人口的就业不仅仅局限于制造业,以及新型服务行业的进入开创了制造行业的新领域,并创造了大量的就业机会。而这些企业通过彼此之间的竞争与合作,产生了积极正面的外部影响。这样的增长机制对中国来说非常重要,但由于这种机制是基于生产制造业务来进行的,这种机制已经造成环境污染等负面影响并达到了数量增长的界限。如果不能找到新型增长动力,中国的经济就可能无法实现稳步增长的目标。因此,中国的城市应该不断地通过新的方式创造的创业机会,从而开发新的创业动力,增加创业就业。即考虑到目前中国的经济形势,不能过分强调创新型创业者的重要性。
在这样的环境下,对创业活动的研究至关重要。中国学者对创业活动经济效应的研究有很长一段历史,最近也取得了非常显著的实证结果,但由于多方面的问题,这些研究需要进行进一步的完善。第一个问题是研究的严谨性。现有的许多中国学者的研究中在分析经济效应中忽略了微观基础。另外,许多先前的研究在理论上已经对中国创业活动的经济效应进行了实证分析,但许多研究结论仅仅是非常简单,即创业活动加快了经济的增长。不过,实际创业活动的经济效应并不仅限于简单的积极关系,更多呈现的是一个相当复杂的动态机制。新成立的公司可能会加剧竞争,给其他公司施加压力,即创业活动对经济带来负面的影响。但是从长远来看,通过新市场的形成可能对宏观经济产生积极的正面影响。对这些动态效应的研究目前也十分匮乏。第三,创业活动的模式以及对经济增长带来的影响也因地域和空间关系的不同而不同。但是这些空间因素在现有研究中都没有被充分地考虑到。在这样的背景下,本研究运用实证研究方法来弥补之前研究的局限性,完善对创业活动的研究。
在文献回顾的基础上,第4章研究了创业活动如何对中国私营经济中的就业带来的影响。通过回归分析该章研究2000年至2008年间对中国31个省份创业活动的静态及动态就业影响。其中动态影响分析的结果尤其值得关注。在论文中,我们试图建立起一个完整的理论以解释创业活动对就业的影响。创业活动对就业的影响可以系统性地分成三个层次。Fritsch对于关于该类理论的讨论进行了很好的回顾(2007).首先,创业活动能够直接通过扩大生产能力来产生新的职位,我们称之为“直接影响”。同时,新加入市场竞争的创业者会带来其他的影响。正如如我们在之前的研究中所指出的,大量新创企业在五年内就消失了。随着他们从市场的消失,先前的直接经营也随之消失。更重要的是,即使新创企业能在市场竞争中幸存下来,他们也可能会对已有的企业形成压迫,从而,对就业造成负面的影响,这种影响与直接影响正好相反。这就意味着,随着新创企业侵占已有企业的市场份额,他们会降低竞争者的雇佣。我们将该负面的影响称为“间接挤出效应”。我们认为创业活动会形成另一种间接的影响。我们能将我们的分析局限在发生创业活动的行业和市场,而应该考虑创业活动对其他行业和市场的影响。创业活动所产生的上述影响,包括知识资本的溢出效应、商业活动的知识累积(或社会资本)、新产品和服务的产生及高度竞争等,最终形成了一个良性循环并最终提升了就业。我们将该影响称之为“间接供应作用”。在实际回归分析中,创业活动分为私营企业和个体户两类,针对各类创业活动对就业的影响我们采用不同的变量。另外,为了拓展讨论的内容,我们对11个东部地区和19个中西部地区进行了动态分析并比较这两组间就业影响的差异。主要结论如下。第一,静态分析回归结果表明创业活动对增加就业岗位做出了很大影响。私营企业创业活动就业效应的系数是0.97,而且个体户创业活动的系数是0.69。第二,动态影响呈现S型曲线,与先前Fritsch和Muller (2007)对德国和英国的实证研究结果相似。第三,通过对比我们可以清晰地发现不同创业活动种类对就业影响的不同。首先,在私营企业创业中,1-2年的直接影响非常高。对于3-4年的间接挤出效应,其趋势是明显的但是影响并不为负,这表明挤出效应是有限的。这些结果非常独特,很少在其他国家中发现。中国之所以有此前所未有的现象,其原因可能有两方面。
一方面可能是由于其快速成长的发展中国家特性,即中国需求的增长非常迅速,而且新需求创造的速度要远远高于传统市场消失的速度。另一方面可能是由于中国的特殊政策和机构环境,即通过强行保持较低的劳力、资源、能源等因素的价格,政府为边缘企业的存活提供了经济环境。有研究表明,中国持续保持着高投资回报率(Bai et a1.,2006).由于中国的这些独特特征,新的企业不断涌现,中国私营经济内已有边际企业的消失被延缓,间接的挤出效应有限。4-5年间接供给的影响也能够清楚地观测到。然而,不同于其他的国家,整个影响的周期非常短。这可能是由于中国在迅速成长和剧烈变化的市场结构下所具有的独特的经济特征所导致的。在个体户创业的动态就业影响方面,我们可以看到1-2年直接影响十分明显。然而,3-5年间接影响却并不显著。3-4年的间接挤出效应为负且我们可以大致看到其趋势。4-5年间接影响依旧为负,表明对就业影响没有意义。我们可以发现个体户在供给方面对于经济规模扩张的影响极其有限。第四,我们可以发现不同地区创业活动对就业影响的不同。在东部地区经济增长速度快,经济活动活跃,私营企业和个体户对就业的影响都非常显著。尤其是4-5年间接就业影响都十分显著,而且供给方面对就业的长期正面影响也十分显著。对于个体户,1-2年直接就业影响相对更高。这些结果与Acs&Muller (2007)和Audretsch&Keilbach (2005)的研究结果相似。他们认为城镇地区创造就业的影响相对更高的原因是由于这些地区的高凝聚效应。相反,19个中西部地区的回归结果则有所不同。私营初创企业对就业在1-2年有显著的直接积极影响,但3-5年的间接效应则十分有限。这表明新企业在中西部地区的成长并不迅速,他们的经济影响也并不显著。
为了推动动态效果下一步分析,第5章对两个时期的动态效应进行了对比。尤其是在20世纪90年代中期到21世纪初期(1998-2001)国有企业改革,中国受到新兴的个人劳动市场巨大冲击。因此对这段相对独立时期的创业活动带来的就业效应分析是非常有价值的。我们就该时期动态就业效应与以后21世纪中后期(2002-2009)的就业效应比较分析。对比分析的结果如下。第一,对于私营企业创业,在这两段时期内创业活动的动态模式没有明显区别,但是对个体户来说则区别非常显著。把创业活动分为机会型创业和生存型创业有助于的理解该结果。对于机会型创业,或者可以定义为私营企业创业,在1998-2001和2002-2009两个时期内对就业的影响没有很大差别。这说明,在中国迅速发展的经济转型中不断出现新的商机,成功的创业活动会积极地提供新的就业机会。由于全国经济中的国有部门比例萎缩,政府的工业垄断也开始向私有企业敞开,机会型创业则填补了该缺口。由于深化工业结构的发展,以及价值链中对新服务和新产品的需求,机会型创业企业改变了产品、服务的生产,并对就业产生了巨大作用。考虑到两时期的动态模式没有太大区别,这些创业机遇在这两段时期内都会会持续存在。两段时期内的间接挤出效应并不明显,也就是说创业活动引起的竞争加剧带来的负面影响和机会型创业并不相关。而个体户创业则相反,两个时期呈现出很大的不同。尤其是在1998-2001时期的间接挤出效应非常显著。这种现象是由于国有企业的萎缩导致市场劳动力供过于求,增加了自主创业活动,从而导致竞争加剧以及随之造成的间接挤出效应。中国作为一个发展中国家,市场尚未成熟,实施市场经济体制时间较短,社会资本也非常薄弱,因此市场维护和促进的机构与体系很不完善。所以,个人创业者能把握的技术和信息是都有限的。结果是大部分的创业意向集中在单一的投资机会上。在这样的情况下,过剩的创业投资不可避免地造成企业间的竞争,从而加剧了价格竞争,降低了每个公司的销售额和利润,降低了整个经济环境的就业水平。该模式可以通过数据结果体现出的间接挤出效应来解释。
第6章运用空间经济计量方法来研究创新型创业活动如何影响中国区域经济GDP增长的。数据集涵盖了2001至2009年以来的中国31个省份。首先我们引入“环节缺失”(Missing link)概念讨论内生增长模式,即创业实践的知识溢出效应(Acs et al.,2004)。基于Acs et al.(2005)的实证模型,本章对区域间的空间相互依赖性综合考虑,并构建增强型实证模型。第一个模型是空间滞后模型。该模型估计被解释变量与观测值之间的空间依赖性。第二个模型是空间误差模型。该模型假设被解释变量决定于一组解释变量,而其误差项具有空间依赖性。第三个模型是空间Durbin模型。空间Durbin模型让我们可以直接衡量空间单位之间的知识溢出效应,因为模型中使用的是空间滞后的解释变量。许多研究表明知识外溢效应只会在很有限的地域范围内发生(Brun等,2002; Ying,2000)。
在中国,东部沿海和中西部内陆之间的经济力量差距正在拉大而这也验证了Bottazzi和Peri (2003)的观点,即中国创新活动的知识外溢效应受到个体日常生活范围的限制,中国创业活动的知识外溢效应受空间的约束。中国地域广阔,地区众多,每个地区都有各自方言,地域特征明显。在这样的背景下依托地方主义和亲属关系来扩展业务机会,在中国也是一种常见和十分重要的方法。因此使用新的空间经济计量法来反映这些因素的影响也有很大的意义。回归结果概括如下。首先,创业活动对省份经济增长带来的影响是非常大的。该结论与Chen和Feng之前的研究(2007)是一致的。他们叙述了在独立省份中个体部门的出现以及随之而来的创业活动与该区域的经济增长息息相关。我们的分析表明,创业活动与地理位置上相邻区域的经济增长有很大的关联性,这种现象说明了省份之间知识主动外溢的可能性。由于中国不断完善的交通设施和广播系统,特定的地理单位中的经济活动者之间的合作更加深入,通过这些活动,商业机会和生产技术比以往传播的更快。创业活动的知识外溢是整个区域经济发展的主要推动力(Huang,2008)。第二,研发活动短期上并没有表现出显著的对省份经济增长的积极作用。这表明中国经济的增长依然依赖经济元素的投入,而不是研发活动。也就是说,尽管研发活动的系数对经济的增长呈现积极的势态,但实际贡献则仅局限于个别企业水平。另外,研究发现每一个省份的研发活动与相邻省份的产出增长之间的关系不大。关于这个问题,一直没有统一的解释。这些研究结果由于各自的研究构念、研究方法及时期的不同而不同。例如,Jefferson et al (2006)对个体企业水平的研发活动效应的评估显示,在中国环境下的研发活动有着高边际生产率,他们通过提高经济参与者吸收技术的能力来提高他们的目标。Hu和Jefferson et al(2004)的研究指出,研发支出中的知识资本对中国工业企业的生产力及盈利能力产生了很大的影响。相反,Goldberg (2008)认为中国的研发活动与发达国家相比具有完全不同的属性。从中国生产的美国专利商标局专利分析中,他们发现中国公司只占有20%的中国公司代理的美国专利。这意味着在中国大多数有实际意义的研发活动都是由外国公司在中国操作的。他们的表现与中国本土创新及经济增长并没有直接的关系。因此,从实证结果来看,我们可以谨慎的推断,中国研发创新体系尚未能对区域水平的经济增长产生良好的推动作用。第三,我们关注资本劳动比的间接负面影响。弗里德曼(1996)的核心-边缘模型认为,在核心区域的集中资本投资使周边区域出现迁徙,缺乏基础设施建设。周边地区投资吸引力的下降导致经济增长滞后,扩大区域间的不平等性。由于紧邻中国最重要的城市北京和天津(Yu and Wu,2006),20世纪90年代河北省许多周边地区都出现了人口减少情况。没有创新活动的外溢而只是单一的依靠投入增长在中国可能导致临近区域的间接倒退。
第7章运用空间平板模型来分析研发活动和创业活动是如何影响创新的。我们按照距离列级的空间权值矩阵,将它们转化为一个二元类型,把每一个矩阵放进空间平板模型里,比较其结果。通过这种方法,我们可以量化每一个不同距离间创业活动和研发活动所产生的溢出效应。
从该分析获得结果如下。第一,研发始终对创新起着重要的积极作用。创业活动(私营企业的成立)在短时期内只有有限的效果,但是从长远来看有着明显正面的影响。对于创新,在大多数的空间模型中存在相互依赖同时又互相影响的关系,这意味着专利代表的创新在邻近省份之间的相互作用关系要高于非邻近省份之间的关系。邻近省份之间通过面对面交流来促进彼此的创新：邻近省份相互之间会有积极的专利报价,同时也存在着相关专利的申请竞争。第二,运用渐进式空间权重矩阵的回归分析结果如下。首先,距离在1到1000公里内的省份,研发活动在直接效应和间接效应上都很显著,同时观察到有外溢效应。在前面的研究中,创业活动的直接作用只会在长期的观察中观测到正面的影响,虽然它们对其他空间的间接影响也很显著,但是与研发活动相比则较弱。将在分析的距离扩大到2000公里,得到的结果中直接效应没有太大变化,但是间接效应则呈现出明显不同。创业活动的间接效应消失了。也就是说,当空间权重矩阵中的矩阵扩大到2000公里,创业活动的外溢效应消失来了。当矩阵扩大到3000公里,减弱趋势更加明显,研发的外溢效应则显著下降。
本研究的主要贡献在于它采用了先进的创业活动经济效应分析方法。在使用新方法来解释创业活动产生的经济效应的过程中,根据时间空间的不同我们可以准确分析相互作用的不同模式。与以往对创新活动对经济增长的分析不同,本研究对随着时间变化而对区域产生的影响的经济效应进行了分析。我们根据空间位置的不同,研究了创业活动对经济增长的影响,并根据空间位置不同得出了相应的结论,通过地区和时期的对比,为政策制定得到了更多详尽的启发。在本文的第4章和第5章,我们可以研究创业活动带来的只有随着时间的推移才会显现的间接经济效应。第6章和第7章通过运用最近发展较快的空间经济计量回归模型来分析对GDP增长和创新带来的影响。在过去的研究中,由于技术问题,空间经济计量回归模型没有被广泛使用,但是这些问题解决之后,它成为了一个备受瞩目的研究方式。使用空间计量经济研究方法,我们可以显示静态分析中临近或相邻省份之间产生的间接相互作用。
另外,本文对创业活动和经济效应的研究也起到了推动性的作用。本研究关于创业活动对就业以及经济增长和创新的影响的研究都以严格细致的微观基础为依据。就业、增长和创新这三项经济变量是完全不同的实体,但是之前的实证研究在经济的影响下把他们归为一类,并没有把它们区别开来。研发投资在短时期内对就业有负面影响,因为劳工与资本的更换。同样,创业活动对三个不同的变量产生的影响也不尽相同。因此,在研究中应该将他们严格的区分开来。通过一个可靠模型对这些变量之间相互影响的分析,我们可以得到更细致可靠的研究结果。
最后,本研究的贡献在于通过几个新的尝试引出了对创业活动经济效应的广泛讨论。首先,本研究把创业活动分为私营企业和个体户经营并对他们的经济效应分别进行分析。通过对两种创业活动的历史回顾,对各自的经济效应进行分析。与之前的研究相比,本文的研究引发了更多的多样化讨论,尤其是在第5章,我们通过对两种不同类型创业的结合,以及对机会型创业和生存型创业的研究得到了更具有现实意义的结果。通过对东部地区和中西部地区不同创业活动指数分布的对比来分析创业活动的就业效应,并证实了两地区创业活动之间结构的不同之处。另外,在第7章中,通过在空间经济计量模型过程中分阶段地改变空间权重矩阵,我们提出一个对创业活动间接效应进行对比的便捷方法。如果有更多的数据可利用,那么本研究提出的新方法的应用范围会更广泛,应用效果也会更显著。随着时间的推移和经济的发展,创业活动的数据要不断地积累。在将来的研究中,如果积累的微观数据能够得到恰当的应用,我们的方法会得出更有意义的结论。同时,如果能合适地利用较小的空间单位数据,这些方法也可以用来对创业活动的经济效应进行更精确更细致地分析。
尽管我们取得了这些有意义的结果,本研究依然存在一些局限和不足。首先,本研究的数据并不是基于微观数据而是从数据年鉴中提取出来的宏观数据,而根据这些数据难以对各个区域的微观变量进行精准的考虑和分析。例如,在第4章和第5章中,每个区域的劳动力需求只是根据登记过的工人数量计算而没有考虑到工作时长。其次,我们的分析只涵盖了私营企业和个体户。私营经济在大都城市和经济发达区域中所占整个经济规模的比重会比较大,而在经济欠发达地区,国有经济以及乡镇经济仍然是整个经济的主体。而在本研究中并没有考虑经济结构的不同导致的影响。第三,第6章中建立的模型采用的是残缺的数据。经济增长现象的研究十分复杂,关于与增长相关的独立变量是否应该加入模型中的问题已经有过很多实证分析,但一直没有统一的结论。本文仅在一章当中讨论这个问题是可能有欠严谨,不过本研究已经运用Acs模型来尽可能追求科学准确性。最后,在第7章中,关于变量有效性问题的讨论不够充分。在创新的研究中,专利作为衡量创新的代理变量的地位在很长的一段时间内都有很大的争议。正如本文所述,并不是所有的创新都会转化成专利,也不是所有的专利都会带来经济价值。然而,我们在实际的分析中,依然需要依靠专利的客观数据。专利在一定程度上体现了创新的程度,更重要的是专利作为创新的代理变量能与全国现有研究的大部分的调查数据一致。
在今后的研究中,我们可以扩展和运用新的研究方法。例如,以阿尔蒙方法为基础的动态模型,可用来量化GDP增长效应、创新效应,就业效应,从而采用空间经济模型来进行分析。最近全国范围内的许多大范围调查,都为数据分析提供了更高质量数据。这些高质量的数据是用采用这些深入研究方法的基础。另一方面,对创业活动的经济效应的调查研究还处于初始阶段,更多的相应的调查和数据将会有效的解决目前研究的瓶颈,促进创业活动的经济效应领域的研究。
Since the late1970s when China launched the open economic policy to the externalworld and began the economic reform for structural change, in China numerous kinds ofeconomic opportunities emerged and disappeared. Recent removal of government-imposed regulation and technology advance created novel economic opportunities,thereby allowing entrepreneurs in China’s market to access, discover and exploitentrepreneurial opportunities more easily. Besides the continuous China’s economygrowth accelerates the demand growth, thus China’s market attracts numeroustransnational entrepreneurs from other countries. That is, the proliferation ofentrepreneurial activities in China is phenomena itself.
However, there was the lack of research which investigated the effect of China’sentrepreneurial activities. Although there are theoretical studies associatingentrepreneurial activities with economic growth, and some empirical studies on suchtheoretical models, they have several limitations such as lack of empirical study orrecent statistical method. Because there have not been many systematic studies freefrom the rigorousness problem, derived conclusions of previous studies are often toosimple. That is, many studies reached merely the very simple conclusion that activeentrepreneurial activities accelerate economic growth. However, the actual economiceffects of entrepreneurial activities are not limited to such a simple positive one-wayrelation but show very complicated patterns.
With this background, this thesis investigates economic effect of entrepreneurialactivity in China. The thesis will examine different economic effect of entrepreneurialactivity according to different business types, various regions and time spans. The thesisis organized as follows. First, in Chapter2, entrepreneurial activity and economic effectare defined. Subsequently, after critically reviewing previous literatures in related fieldson Chinese entrepreneurship (Chapter3), empirical research on employment effect ofentrepreneurial activities has been conducted (Chapter4and Chapter5). In Chapter4and Chapter5, utilizing Almon method, dynamic effect of entrepreneurial activity onemployment has been analyzed. In Chapter6, based on endogenous growth theory andrecent methodological innovation of spatial econometrics, empirical analysis for GDPpromotion effect of entrepreneurial activities has been carried out. In addition, another empirical regression around regional entrepreneurial policy have been conducted inorder to investigate how entrepreneurial activities promote regional innovation (Chapter7). Chapter8draw conclusion.
Main findings of regression in Chapter4are as follows: entrepreneurial activitiesmake a considerable contribution to job creation, S-shaped dynamic pattern of jobcreation effect of entrepreneurial activity is observed similar to those found by previousresearch, employment effect of entrepreneurial activity is different according to businesstypes and regions. The results of comparison in Chapter5are summarized as follows:the employment effect of employer entrepreneurship, which is the proxy variable ofopportunity entrepreneurship, is not much different between the two periods, in thecomparison of the employment effect of self-employed entrepreneurship, which is theproxy variable of necessity entrepreneurship, the dynamic employment effect is quitedifferent between the two periods. The results of the regression in Chapter6showclearly the contribution of entrepreneurial activities to economic growth. In addition,such activities are observed to influence the adjacencies’ economic growth thoughlimitedly. However, the effect of R&D activities on economic growth is not significanteither directly or indirectly. And we observe significant positive direct effect, butnegative indirect effect of physical input on regional growth. Furthermore, as most ofspatial econometric models show a high correlation of economic growth amongadjacent provinces, the paper confirms the spatial dependency of spillover effect. Mainconclusions of Chapter7drawn from the analysis were as follows: in the regressionanalysis that formulated spatial weight matrixes for three different ranges, the spillovereffect among provinces reduced at a long distance, the spillover effect of entrepreneurialactivities was first affected by space and then the spillover effect of R&D alsoattenuated with increasing distance.
The main contributions of this thesis are that it employs advanced methodology foreconomic effect analysis of entrepreneurial activity. In the process of employing newmethodology in explaining the economic effects of entrepreneurial activities, wecaptured accurately the complex patterns appearing differently according to time andspace. Different from previous studies that were limited to discussions on whetherentrepreneurial activities influence economic growth or how strong the influence is, thisstudy analyzed economic effects and compared regional effects changing over time. Wemeasured the effects of entrepreneurial activities on economic growth in consideration of the implications of spatial location.
然而,现有文献对中国创业活动经济效应的实证研究十分缺乏。尽管已经有不少与创业活动和经济增长相关的理论研究,但是对这些理论模式的实证验证还有待改进。由于多种因素(例如复杂的统计方法)的限制,现有的研究往往缺乏系统性,从而导致得到的研究结论过于简单,而且不够细致,研究的意义和贡献十分有限。很多研究仅仅得到诸如活跃的创业活动拉动经济的增长这样的简单结论。然而,创业活动对经济效应的作用模式十分复杂,而不仅仅是这样单一的正向促进关系。因此,本论文在构建系统性的框架后,采用新的统计方法对中国创业活动的经济效应进行了更深层次的研究。
本论文根据不同的创业类型、地区、活动时长对创业活动的经济效应进行了回归分析。数据来源包括《中国统计年鉴》、《中国人口和就业统计年鉴》《中国高新技术行业统计年鉴》、《中国科学技术统计年鉴》和《中国地区经济统计年鉴》等各种年鉴。本论文由以下几部分组成：第2章定义创业活动以及经济效应。第3章回顾以前中国创业活动经济效应研究的相关文献,第4、5章,就创业活动对就业带来的影响进行实证研究,并运用阿尔蒙方法,分析创业活动对就业带来的动态效应。第6章,依据内生增长理论和空间计量经济学最近的创新方法,分析创业活动对GDP增长带来的影响。第7章,从区域经济的角度分析了创业活动是如何促进区域创新的。第8章结论。
第2章明确创业活动的概念,并阐明在中国背景下“创业活动”的操作定义。在这篇论文中,我们依然采用传统的创业活动定义,即将创业活动定义为“自主创业活动”。自主创业是个人通过运用自己的专业特长或商业技能获取收入,而没有工资报酬。有些研究者认为这样的定义太广泛,他们主张只有“雇佣创业’(雇佣他人来运营企业)是真正的创业。不过,另外一些研究者认为该定义太狭窄。他们认为从现有组织开始的“公司创业”也算是自主创业活动。但是,传统定义方式是在研究不同的时间跨度、不同地区的创业问题时,最有效和一致的方式。
为了把企业运营活动作为区域创业活动代理,我们使用两种不同的变量。我们对地区中私营企业的成立和个体户的出现使用不同的代理变量。尽管私营企业更加适合创新性创业者的定义,但是通过两个变量,我们可以把不同类型的创业活动取得的经济效应进行对比。通常“经济效应”的定义是灾害、事件及政策对就业和收入带来的宏观经济效应。一般通过对经济增长情况的变化及相关工作的变化或者个人收入等方面对经济效应进行测量。因此,“经济效应”概念在本质上蕴含着宏观经济的含义。
在论文中,我们首先从就业变化和GDP增长的角度对经济效应进行评估。评估过程中有一点需要关注,即创业活动与本质上具有短暂性的其他一般事件、政策及自然灾害有很大不同。创业活动是一个经济现象,有很多的经济参与者,并且会持续很长的一段时间,因此应该把创业活动视为经济宏观变量进行研究。对既存经济模式引入这些变量需要对模型的基本机制进行重组,而不是简单地加入一些解释说明的变量。我们通过采用最先进的理论(劳动需求理论、内生增长理论、知识累计理论),利用经济模型回归分析的整个微观基础来完成该重组过程。
另外,我们在相同的背景下对创业活动的创新效应进行分析。因为创业活动本身并不只是一个简单的投资,不仅对就业有的直接推动作用,而且通过推动创新对企业也会产生间接影响。例如,创业活动通常会引进新的生产系统、技术、组织,这个过程会导致新知识的不断传播。因此,我们在分析此类宏观现象的活动时不能忽略创业活动带来的创新效应。我们假设是创业活动通过促进创新提高了整个的经济效率,最终对宏观经济变量产生了积极的影响。
第3章回顾了以前中国的创业活动。改革开放后,个体经济活动得以保证,中国经济开始迅速增长。同时,中国处在发展中国家的过渡阶段,创业活动对经济结构影响至关重要。在此背景下,我们引入了熊彼特的创业租金概念。另外,创业精神和制度变迁之间的关系也十分值得关注。创业家实行改革,出现了很多效仿者,从根本上改变了传统秩序,不断更新经济活动者的知识。创业活动通过带动各地创新来促进当地经济的增长,并通过集聚效应激活当地经济,促进当地经济的发展。
在中国现在的发展阶段,创业活动的知识外溢效应对促进当地经济发展至关重要。随着农村人口向城镇的迁移,城市发展的不断扩大,中国城市化的进程越好越快,这个过程产生了许多促进经济发展的机遇。由于城市人口的就业不仅仅局限于制造业,以及新型服务行业的进入开创了制造行业的新领域,并创造了大量的就业机会。而这些企业通过彼此之间的竞争与合作,产生了积极正面的外部影响。这样的增长机制对中国来说非常重要,但由于这种机制是基于生产制造业务来进行的,这种机制已经造成环境污染等负面影响并达到了数量增长的界限。如果不能找到新型增长动力,中国的经济就可能无法实现稳步增长的目标。因此,中国的城市应该不断地通过新的方式创造的创业机会,从而开发新的创业动力,增加创业就业。即考虑到目前中国的经济形势,不能过分强调创新型创业者的重要性。
在这样的环境下,对创业活动的研究至关重要。中国学者对创业活动经济效应的研究有很长一段历史,最近也取得了非常显著的实证结果,但由于多方面的问题,这些研究需要进行进一步的完善。第一个问题是研究的严谨性。现有的许多中国学者的研究中在分析经济效应中忽略了微观基础。另外,许多先前的研究在理论上已经对中国创业活动的经济效应进行了实证分析,但许多研究结论仅仅是非常简单,即创业活动加快了经济的增长。不过,实际创业活动的经济效应并不仅限于简单的积极关系,更多呈现的是一个相当复杂的动态机制。新成立的公司可能会加剧竞争,给其他公司施加压力,即创业活动对经济带来负面的影响。但是从长远来看,通过新市场的形成可能对宏观经济产生积极的正面影响。对这些动态效应的研究目前也十分匮乏。第三,创业活动的模式以及对经济增长带来的影响也因地域和空间关系的不同而不同。但是这些空间因素在现有研究中都没有被充分地考虑到。在这样的背景下,本研究运用实证研究方法来弥补之前研究的局限性,完善对创业活动的研究。
在文献回顾的基础上,第4章研究了创业活动如何对中国私营经济中的就业带来的影响。通过回归分析该章研究2000年至2008年间对中国31个省份创业活动的静态及动态就业影响。其中动态影响分析的结果尤其值得关注。在论文中,我们试图建立起一个完整的理论以解释创业活动对就业的影响。创业活动对就业的影响可以系统性地分成三个层次。Fritsch对于关于该类理论的讨论进行了很好的回顾(2007).首先,创业活动能够直接通过扩大生产能力来产生新的职位,我们称之为“直接影响”。同时,新加入市场竞争的创业者会带来其他的影响。正如如我们在之前的研究中所指出的,大量新创企业在五年内就消失了。随着他们从市场的消失,先前的直接经营也随之消失。更重要的是,即使新创企业能在市场竞争中幸存下来,他们也可能会对已有的企业形成压迫,从而,对就业造成负面的影响,这种影响与直接影响正好相反。这就意味着,随着新创企业侵占已有企业的市场份额,他们会降低竞争者的雇佣。我们将该负面的影响称为“间接挤出效应”。我们认为创业活动会形成另一种间接的影响。我们能将我们的分析局限在发生创业活动的行业和市场,而应该考虑创业活动对其他行业和市场的影响。创业活动所产生的上述影响,包括知识资本的溢出效应、商业活动的知识累积(或社会资本)、新产品和服务的产生及高度竞争等,最终形成了一个良性循环并最终提升了就业。我们将该影响称之为“间接供应作用”。在实际回归分析中,创业活动分为私营企业和个体户两类,针对各类创业活动对就业的影响我们采用不同的变量。另外,为了拓展讨论的内容,我们对11个东部地区和19个中西部地区进行了动态分析并比较这两组间就业影响的差异。主要结论如下。第一,静态分析回归结果表明创业活动对增加就业岗位做出了很大影响。私营企业创业活动就业效应的系数是0.97,而且个体户创业活动的系数是0.69。第二,动态影响呈现S型曲线,与先前Fritsch和Muller (2007)对德国和英国的实证研究结果相似。第三,通过对比我们可以清晰地发现不同创业活动种类对就业影响的不同。首先,在私营企业创业中,1-2年的直接影响非常高。对于3-4年的间接挤出效应,其趋势是明显的但是影响并不为负,这表明挤出效应是有限的。这些结果非常独特,很少在其他国家中发现。中国之所以有此前所未有的现象,其原因可能有两方面。
一方面可能是由于其快速成长的发展中国家特性,即中国需求的增长非常迅速,而且新需求创造的速度要远远高于传统市场消失的速度。另一方面可能是由于中国的特殊政策和机构环境,即通过强行保持较低的劳力、资源、能源等因素的价格,政府为边缘企业的存活提供了经济环境。有研究表明,中国持续保持着高投资回报率(Bai et a1.,2006).由于中国的这些独特特征,新的企业不断涌现,中国私营经济内已有边际企业的消失被延缓,间接的挤出效应有限。4-5年间接供给的影响也能够清楚地观测到。然而,不同于其他的国家,整个影响的周期非常短。这可能是由于中国在迅速成长和剧烈变化的市场结构下所具有的独特的经济特征所导致的。在个体户创业的动态就业影响方面,我们可以看到1-2年直接影响十分明显。然而,3-5年间接影响却并不显著。3-4年的间接挤出效应为负且我们可以大致看到其趋势。4-5年间接影响依旧为负,表明对就业影响没有意义。我们可以发现个体户在供给方面对于经济规模扩张的影响极其有限。第四,我们可以发现不同地区创业活动对就业影响的不同。在东部地区经济增长速度快,经济活动活跃,私营企业和个体户对就业的影响都非常显著。尤其是4-5年间接就业影响都十分显著,而且供给方面对就业的长期正面影响也十分显著。对于个体户,1-2年直接就业影响相对更高。这些结果与Acs&Muller (2007)和Audretsch&Keilbach (2005)的研究结果相似。他们认为城镇地区创造就业的影响相对更高的原因是由于这些地区的高凝聚效应。相反,19个中西部地区的回归结果则有所不同。私营初创企业对就业在1-2年有显著的直接积极影响,但3-5年的间接效应则十分有限。这表明新企业在中西部地区的成长并不迅速,他们的经济影响也并不显著。
为了推动动态效果下一步分析,第5章对两个时期的动态效应进行了对比。尤其是在20世纪90年代中期到21世纪初期(1998-2001)国有企业改革,中国受到新兴的个人劳动市场巨大冲击。因此对这段相对独立时期的创业活动带来的就业效应分析是非常有价值的。我们就该时期动态就业效应与以后21世纪中后期(2002-2009)的就业效应比较分析。对比分析的结果如下。第一,对于私营企业创业,在这两段时期内创业活动的动态模式没有明显区别,但是对个体户来说则区别非常显著。把创业活动分为机会型创业和生存型创业有助于的理解该结果。对于机会型创业,或者可以定义为私营企业创业,在1998-2001和2002-2009两个时期内对就业的影响没有很大差别。这说明,在中国迅速发展的经济转型中不断出现新的商机,成功的创业活动会积极地提供新的就业机会。由于全国经济中的国有部门比例萎缩,政府的工业垄断也开始向私有企业敞开,机会型创业则填补了该缺口。由于深化工业结构的发展,以及价值链中对新服务和新产品的需求,机会型创业企业改变了产品、服务的生产,并对就业产生了巨大作用。考虑到两时期的动态模式没有太大区别,这些创业机遇在这两段时期内都会会持续存在。两段时期内的间接挤出效应并不明显,也就是说创业活动引起的竞争加剧带来的负面影响和机会型创业并不相关。而个体户创业则相反,两个时期呈现出很大的不同。尤其是在1998-2001时期的间接挤出效应非常显著。这种现象是由于国有企业的萎缩导致市场劳动力供过于求,增加了自主创业活动,从而导致竞争加剧以及随之造成的间接挤出效应。中国作为一个发展中国家,市场尚未成熟,实施市场经济体制时间较短,社会资本也非常薄弱,因此市场维护和促进的机构与体系很不完善。所以,个人创业者能把握的技术和信息是都有限的。结果是大部分的创业意向集中在单一的投资机会上。在这样的情况下,过剩的创业投资不可避免地造成企业间的竞争,从而加剧了价格竞争,降低了每个公司的销售额和利润,降低了整个经济环境的就业水平。该模式可以通过数据结果体现出的间接挤出效应来解释。
第6章运用空间经济计量方法来研究创新型创业活动如何影响中国区域经济GDP增长的。数据集涵盖了2001至2009年以来的中国31个省份。首先我们引入“环节缺失”(Missing link)概念讨论内生增长模式,即创业实践的知识溢出效应(Acs et al.,2004)。基于Acs et al.(2005)的实证模型,本章对区域间的空间相互依赖性综合考虑,并构建增强型实证模型。第一个模型是空间滞后模型。该模型估计被解释变量与观测值之间的空间依赖性。第二个模型是空间误差模型。该模型假设被解释变量决定于一组解释变量,而其误差项具有空间依赖性。第三个模型是空间Durbin模型。空间Durbin模型让我们可以直接衡量空间单位之间的知识溢出效应,因为模型中使用的是空间滞后的解释变量。许多研究表明知识外溢效应只会在很有限的地域范围内发生(Brun等,2002; Ying,2000)。
在中国,东部沿海和中西部内陆之间的经济力量差距正在拉大而这也验证了Bottazzi和Peri (2003)的观点,即中国创新活动的知识外溢效应受到个体日常生活范围的限制,中国创业活动的知识外溢效应受空间的约束。中国地域广阔,地区众多,每个地区都有各自方言,地域特征明显。在这样的背景下依托地方主义和亲属关系来扩展业务机会,在中国也是一种常见和十分重要的方法。因此使用新的空间经济计量法来反映这些因素的影响也有很大的意义。回归结果概括如下。首先,创业活动对省份经济增长带来的影响是非常大的。该结论与Chen和Feng之前的研究(2007)是一致的。他们叙述了在独立省份中个体部门的出现以及随之而来的创业活动与该区域的经济增长息息相关。我们的分析表明,创业活动与地理位置上相邻区域的经济增长有很大的关联性,这种现象说明了省份之间知识主动外溢的可能性。由于中国不断完善的交通设施和广播系统,特定的地理单位中的经济活动者之间的合作更加深入,通过这些活动,商业机会和生产技术比以往传播的更快。创业活动的知识外溢是整个区域经济发展的主要推动力(Huang,2008)。第二,研发活动短期上并没有表现出显著的对省份经济增长的积极作用。这表明中国经济的增长依然依赖经济元素的投入,而不是研发活动。也就是说,尽管研发活动的系数对经济的增长呈现积极的势态,但实际贡献则仅局限于个别企业水平。另外,研究发现每一个省份的研发活动与相邻省份的产出增长之间的关系不大。关于这个问题,一直没有统一的解释。这些研究结果由于各自的研究构念、研究方法及时期的不同而不同。例如,Jefferson et al (2006)对个体企业水平的研发活动效应的评估显示,在中国环境下的研发活动有着高边际生产率,他们通过提高经济参与者吸收技术的能力来提高他们的目标。Hu和Jefferson et al(2004)的研究指出,研发支出中的知识资本对中国工业企业的生产力及盈利能力产生了很大的影响。相反,Goldberg (2008)认为中国的研发活动与发达国家相比具有完全不同的属性。从中国生产的美国专利商标局专利分析中,他们发现中国公司只占有20%的中国公司代理的美国专利。这意味着在中国大多数有实际意义的研发活动都是由外国公司在中国操作的。他们的表现与中国本土创新及经济增长并没有直接的关系。因此,从实证结果来看,我们可以谨慎的推断,中国研发创新体系尚未能对区域水平的经济增长产生良好的推动作用。第三,我们关注资本劳动比的间接负面影响。弗里德曼(1996)的核心-边缘模型认为,在核心区域的集中资本投资使周边区域出现迁徙,缺乏基础设施建设。周边地区投资吸引力的下降导致经济增长滞后,扩大区域间的不平等性。由于紧邻中国最重要的城市北京和天津(Yu and Wu,2006),20世纪90年代河北省许多周边地区都出现了人口减少情况。没有创新活动的外溢而只是单一的依靠投入增长在中国可能导致临近区域的间接倒退。
第7章运用空间平板模型来分析研发活动和创业活动是如何影响创新的。我们按照距离列级的空间权值矩阵,将它们转化为一个二元类型,把每一个矩阵放进空间平板模型里,比较其结果。通过这种方法,我们可以量化每一个不同距离间创业活动和研发活动所产生的溢出效应。
从该分析获得结果如下。第一,研发始终对创新起着重要的积极作用。创业活动(私营企业的成立)在短时期内只有有限的效果,但是从长远来看有着明显正面的影响。对于创新,在大多数的空间模型中存在相互依赖同时又互相影响的关系,这意味着专利代表的创新在邻近省份之间的相互作用关系要高于非邻近省份之间的关系。邻近省份之间通过面对面交流来促进彼此的创新：邻近省份相互之间会有积极的专利报价,同时也存在着相关专利的申请竞争。第二,运用渐进式空间权重矩阵的回归分析结果如下。首先,距离在1到1000公里内的省份,研发活动在直接效应和间接效应上都很显著,同时观察到有外溢效应。在前面的研究中,创业活动的直接作用只会在长期的观察中观测到正面的影响,虽然它们对其他空间的间接影响也很显著,但是与研发活动相比则较弱。将在分析的距离扩大到2000公里,得到的结果中直接效应没有太大变化,但是间接效应则呈现出明显不同。创业活动的间接效应消失了。也就是说,当空间权重矩阵中的矩阵扩大到2000公里,创业活动的外溢效应消失来了。当矩阵扩大到3000公里,减弱趋势更加明显,研发的外溢效应则显著下降。
本研究的主要贡献在于它采用了先进的创业活动经济效应分析方法。在使用新方法来解释创业活动产生的经济效应的过程中,根据时间空间的不同我们可以准确分析相互作用的不同模式。与以往对创新活动对经济增长的分析不同,本研究对随着时间变化而对区域产生的影响的经济效应进行了分析。我们根据空间位置的不同,研究了创业活动对经济增长的影响,并根据空间位置不同得出了相应的结论,通过地区和时期的对比,为政策制定得到了更多详尽的启发。在本文的第4章和第5章,我们可以研究创业活动带来的只有随着时间的推移才会显现的间接经济效应。第6章和第7章通过运用最近发展较快的空间经济计量回归模型来分析对GDP增长和创新带来的影响。在过去的研究中,由于技术问题,空间经济计量回归模型没有被广泛使用,但是这些问题解决之后,它成为了一个备受瞩目的研究方式。使用空间计量经济研究方法,我们可以显示静态分析中临近或相邻省份之间产生的间接相互作用。
另外,本文对创业活动和经济效应的研究也起到了推动性的作用。本研究关于创业活动对就业以及经济增长和创新的影响的研究都以严格细致的微观基础为依据。就业、增长和创新这三项经济变量是完全不同的实体,但是之前的实证研究在经济的影响下把他们归为一类,并没有把它们区别开来。研发投资在短时期内对就业有负面影响,因为劳工与资本的更换。同样,创业活动对三个不同的变量产生的影响也不尽相同。因此,在研究中应该将他们严格的区分开来。通过一个可靠模型对这些变量之间相互影响的分析,我们可以得到更细致可靠的研究结果。
最后,本研究的贡献在于通过几个新的尝试引出了对创业活动经济效应的广泛讨论。首先,本研究把创业活动分为私营企业和个体户经营并对他们的经济效应分别进行分析。通过对两种创业活动的历史回顾,对各自的经济效应进行分析。与之前的研究相比,本文的研究引发了更多的多样化讨论,尤其是在第5章,我们通过对两种不同类型创业的结合,以及对机会型创业和生存型创业的研究得到了更具有现实意义的结果。通过对东部地区和中西部地区不同创业活动指数分布的对比来分析创业活动的就业效应,并证实了两地区创业活动之间结构的不同之处。另外,在第7章中,通过在空间经济计量模型过程中分阶段地改变空间权重矩阵,我们提出一个对创业活动间接效应进行对比的便捷方法。如果有更多的数据可利用,那么本研究提出的新方法的应用范围会更广泛,应用效果也会更显著。随着时间的推移和经济的发展,创业活动的数据要不断地积累。在将来的研究中,如果积累的微观数据能够得到恰当的应用,我们的方法会得出更有意义的结论。同时,如果能合适地利用较小的空间单位数据,这些方法也可以用来对创业活动的经济效应进行更精确更细致地分析。
尽管我们取得了这些有意义的结果,本研究依然存在一些局限和不足。首先,本研究的数据并不是基于微观数据而是从数据年鉴中提取出来的宏观数据,而根据这些数据难以对各个区域的微观变量进行精准的考虑和分析。例如,在第4章和第5章中,每个区域的劳动力需求只是根据登记过的工人数量计算而没有考虑到工作时长。其次,我们的分析只涵盖了私营企业和个体户。私营经济在大都城市和经济发达区域中所占整个经济规模的比重会比较大,而在经济欠发达地区,国有经济以及乡镇经济仍然是整个经济的主体。而在本研究中并没有考虑经济结构的不同导致的影响。第三,第6章中建立的模型采用的是残缺的数据。经济增长现象的研究十分复杂,关于与增长相关的独立变量是否应该加入模型中的问题已经有过很多实证分析,但一直没有统一的结论。本文仅在一章当中讨论这个问题是可能有欠严谨,不过本研究已经运用Acs模型来尽可能追求科学准确性。最后,在第7章中,关于变量有效性问题的讨论不够充分。在创新的研究中,专利作为衡量创新的代理变量的地位在很长的一段时间内都有很大的争议。正如本文所述,并不是所有的创新都会转化成专利,也不是所有的专利都会带来经济价值。然而,我们在实际的分析中,依然需要依靠专利的客观数据。专利在一定程度上体现了创新的程度,更重要的是专利作为创新的代理变量能与全国现有研究的大部分的调查数据一致。
在今后的研究中,我们可以扩展和运用新的研究方法。例如,以阿尔蒙方法为基础的动态模型,可用来量化GDP增长效应、创新效应,就业效应,从而采用空间经济模型来进行分析。最近全国范围内的许多大范围调查,都为数据分析提供了更高质量数据。这些高质量的数据是用采用这些深入研究方法的基础。另一方面,对创业活动的经济效应的调查研究还处于初始阶段,更多的相应的调查和数据将会有效的解决目前研究的瓶颈,促进创业活动的经济效应领域的研究。
Since the late1970s when China launched the open economic policy to the externalworld and began the economic reform for structural change, in China numerous kinds ofeconomic opportunities emerged and disappeared. Recent removal of government-imposed regulation and technology advance created novel economic opportunities,thereby allowing entrepreneurs in China’s market to access, discover and exploitentrepreneurial opportunities more easily. Besides the continuous China’s economygrowth accelerates the demand growth, thus China’s market attracts numeroustransnational entrepreneurs from other countries. That is, the proliferation ofentrepreneurial activities in China is phenomena itself.
However, there was the lack of research which investigated the effect of China’sentrepreneurial activities. Although there are theoretical studies associatingentrepreneurial activities with economic growth, and some empirical studies on suchtheoretical models, they have several limitations such as lack of empirical study orrecent statistical method. Because there have not been many systematic studies freefrom the rigorousness problem, derived conclusions of previous studies are often toosimple. That is, many studies reached merely the very simple conclusion that activeentrepreneurial activities accelerate economic growth. However, the actual economiceffects of entrepreneurial activities are not limited to such a simple positive one-wayrelation but show very complicated patterns.
With this background, this thesis investigates economic effect of entrepreneurialactivity in China. The thesis will examine different economic effect of entrepreneurialactivity according to different business types, various regions and time spans. The thesisis organized as follows. First, in Chapter2, entrepreneurial activity and economic effectare defined. Subsequently, after critically reviewing previous literatures in related fieldson Chinese entrepreneurship (Chapter3), empirical research on employment effect ofentrepreneurial activities has been conducted (Chapter4and Chapter5). In Chapter4and Chapter5, utilizing Almon method, dynamic effect of entrepreneurial activity onemployment has been analyzed. In Chapter6, based on endogenous growth theory andrecent methodological innovation of spatial econometrics, empirical analysis for GDPpromotion effect of entrepreneurial activities has been carried out. In addition, another empirical regression around regional entrepreneurial policy have been conducted inorder to investigate how entrepreneurial activities promote regional innovation (Chapter7). Chapter8draw conclusion.
Main findings of regression in Chapter4are as follows: entrepreneurial activitiesmake a considerable contribution to job creation, S-shaped dynamic pattern of jobcreation effect of entrepreneurial activity is observed similar to those found by previousresearch, employment effect of entrepreneurial activity is different according to businesstypes and regions. The results of comparison in Chapter5are summarized as follows:the employment effect of employer entrepreneurship, which is the proxy variable ofopportunity entrepreneurship, is not much different between the two periods, in thecomparison of the employment effect of self-employed entrepreneurship, which is theproxy variable of necessity entrepreneurship, the dynamic employment effect is quitedifferent between the two periods. The results of the regression in Chapter6showclearly the contribution of entrepreneurial activities to economic growth. In addition,such activities are observed to influence the adjacencies’ economic growth thoughlimitedly. However, the effect of R&D activities on economic growth is not significanteither directly or indirectly. And we observe significant positive direct effect, butnegative indirect effect of physical input on regional growth. Furthermore, as most ofspatial econometric models show a high correlation of economic growth amongadjacent provinces, the paper confirms the spatial dependency of spillover effect. Mainconclusions of Chapter7drawn from the analysis were as follows: in the regressionanalysis that formulated spatial weight matrixes for three different ranges, the spillovereffect among provinces reduced at a long distance, the spillover effect of entrepreneurialactivities was first affected by space and then the spillover effect of R&D alsoattenuated with increasing distance.
The main contributions of this thesis are that it employs advanced methodology foreconomic effect analysis of entrepreneurial activity. In the process of employing newmethodology in explaining the economic effects of entrepreneurial activities, wecaptured accurately the complex patterns appearing differently according to time andspace. Different from previous studies that were limited to discussions on whetherentrepreneurial activities influence economic growth or how strong the influence is, thisstudy analyzed economic effects and compared regional effects changing over time. Wemeasured the effects of entrepreneurial activities on economic growth in consideration of the implications of spatial location.
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Fu, Tony and Lai Yu,(2001), An Entrepreneurial Perspective of Institutional Change, ConstitutionalPolitical Economy,12,217-236
Fujita M, Krugman P, Veneables AJ (1999), The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and InternationalTrade, TheMIT Press, Cambridge.
Gans, Joshua and Scott stern,(2003) The product market and the market for "ideas":commercialization strategies for technology entrepreneurs, Research Policy,32,333-350
Gao, Jian (2002), Structural change, environment and policies of entrepreneurial firms in ChinaRadical Change in the World-Will SMEs Soar Or Crash
Gao, Jian et al., China GEM report2007,(2008), Beijing Tsinghua University Press.(in Chinese)
Gile, John, Albert Park and Fang Cai (2006), How Has Economic Restructuring Affected China’sUrban Workers?, The China Quatrerly
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Griliches, Z.(1990), Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey. Journal of EconomicLiterature28,1661-1707.
Goldberg, I., Branstetter, L., Goddard, J. G., and Kuriakose, S.(2008). Globalization andTechnology Absorption in Europe and Central Asia: The Role of Trade, FDI and Cross borderKnowledge Flows (World Bank Working Papers). World Bank Publications.
Grossman, Gene and Helpman, Elhanan.(1991), Innovation and growth in the global economy.Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Gu, Shulin and Bengt-ke Lundvall (2006),“China’s Innovation System and the More towardHarmonious Growth and Endogenous Innovation” Druid. Working Paper06-07.
Hargardon, A.B and Y. Douglas,2001, When Innovations Meet Institutions: Edison and Design ofthe Electric Light, Administrative Science Quartely46,476-501
Hall, Bronwyn H., Zedonis, Rosemarie Ham,(2001), The Patent Paradox Revisited: An EmpiricalStudy of Patenting in the US Semiconductor Industry1979-1995. RAND Journal of Economics32(1)101-128Spring.
Hammermesh,(1986), The Labor Demand Theory, The Handbook of Labor Economics Vol.2, Ed.by L.Layard and Orley Ashenfelter, North Holland.
He, Yuping (2006)“Entrepreneurship and China's Economic Growth—An Empirical Investigationbased on C-D Production Coefficient” Contemporary Finance and Economics Vol.260. Issue7,95-104(in Chinese)
Holtz-Eakin, D.(2000), Public Policy toward Entrepreneurship, Small Business Economics,15,pp.283-291.
Hu, A.G.Z. and Jefferson, G.H.(2002)“FDI impact and spillover: evidence from China’s electronicand textile industries”, World Economy25(8):1063–1076.
Hu, A.G.Z. and Jefferson, G.H.(2004)“Returns to research and development in Chinese industry:Evidence from state-owned enterprises in Beijing” China Economic Review,15,86-107
Hu, A.G.Z. and Jefferson, G.H.(2009) A great wall of patents; What is behind China's pantentexplosion? Journal of Development Economics,90(1)57-68.
Huang, Yasheng,(2008), Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State,New York, Cambridge University Press.
Jaffe, A. B., M. Trajtenberg, and R. Henderson.(1993),“Geographic Localization of knowledgeSpillover as Evidenced by Patent Citation”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Aug.
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