事故灾害与经济增长关联性动态计量分析技术及其应用
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摘要
论文综合多学科理论,利用动态计量分析技术,从时间与空间维度研究了事故灾害与经济增长的关联性,探讨事故灾害与经济增长交互作用的机制与渠道。研究论证了经济增长对事故灾害的规模效应、结构效应和周期效应,指出经济增长机制影响事故灾害的演变。发现并论证了事故灾害区域梯形分布规律,指出经济增长规模并不是影响事故灾害区域差异分布的关键和唯一的因素。经济增长要素所体现的经济增长动力机制的差异性是事故灾害区域差异的内在动因。其中,产业结构是影响事故灾害最重要因素。经济一体化和经济体制对事故灾害有复杂而显著的影响。提出企业安全行为迁移理论,指出经济安全发展需要通过国家层面的宏观经济与安全政策的协同安排解决。
Based on multi-disciplinary theories and dynamic econometric analysis tools, the thesis has researched the relativity between accidents risks and economic growth from time and space viewpoints, explored mechanism and channels of interaction between them. Time sequence research proved that economic growth scale, economic structure as well as economic cycles all have effect on accidents risks, and mechanism of economy reflected on economic element factors would influence evolution of accidents risks on national level. Economic growth scale is not the only element which influences accidents risks spatial distribution, variance in economic growth elements reflecting difference in economic growth mechanism is the inner agent making accidents risks spatial distribution. Among them, economic growth structure is the dominant element, globalization and marketing are important complex elements. Enterprise safety behavior migration theory is put forward to explain micro-interaction between economic growth and accidents risks. And several social control measurements are suggested to promote economy to develop in safety way.
Based on multi-disciplinary theories and dynamic econometric analysis tools, the thesis has researched the relativity between accidents risks and economic growth from time and space viewpoints, explored mechanism and channels of interaction between them. Time sequence research proved that economic growth scale, economic structure as well as economic cycles all have effect on accidents risks, and mechanism of economy reflected on economic element factors would influence evolution of accidents risks on national level. Economic growth scale is not the only element which influences accidents risks spatial distribution, variance in economic growth elements reflecting difference in economic growth mechanism is the inner agent making accidents risks spatial distribution. Among them, economic growth structure is the dominant element, globalization and marketing are important complex elements. Enterprise safety behavior migration theory is put forward to explain micro-interaction between economic growth and accidents risks. And several social control measurements are suggested to promote economy to develop in safety way.
引文
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