综合类开发区生态工业系统仿真及管理策略研究
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摘要
目前,国内工业综合开发区生态工业园建设方兴未艾,快速的地区产业集聚化及生态化需要科学的决策做保障。但现有的开发区系统管理决策不够科学化、程序化,缺乏相应信息管理决策支持技术支撑,且生态工业管理缺乏系统设计、系统分析、系统管理的延续性和可比性,从而不能有效、动态的模拟控制系统演化,环境策略选择往往得不到技术论证；政府管理机制本身无法准确判定物质消耗和污染排放达是否到协调优化状态,需要借助系统分析判定系统效率的优略,预防开发区规划决策的失误。我国于2009年1月1日起实施的《中华人民共和国循环经济促进法》明确规定“设区的市级以上地方人民政府循环经济发展综合管理部门会同本级人民政府环境保护等有关主管部门编制本行政区域循环经济发展规划,报本级人民政府批准后公布施行”,这是持续发展对经济发展方式的重要指导。但就目前的实践情况来看,我国循环经济规划理论储备不足,规范化和可操作的评价方法和规划决策技术尚未成熟,还缺乏科学的理论基础与适用的决策技术支持。本文立足于此,提出从产业系统分析入手,以“系统模拟及仿真分析”和“系统策略设计”的角度对开发区循环经济发展调控理论基础和技术支持进行探索研究,本研究的主要内容包括：
本文在系统分析生态工业管理理论与方法研究的基础上,从理论到实证的方向,系统分析了综合工业开发区生态工业基础和产业多样性,确定系统的相对稳定结构与功能,为构建系统持续发展演化模型进行产业生态化分析,通过收集典型综合开发区产业组分、结构信息建立生态工业系统结构元(Hu)-结构链(Hc)-结构网(Hn)的评估过程；典型开发区按产业组分多样性的逐年变化,按企业类型、经济组分等结构多样性指数特征,探讨开发区Hu-Hc-Hn结构多样性的变化规律。
针对综合开发区经济产出系统、物质消耗系统、综合集成系统、污染控制系统的相互影响、相互联系的循环-反馈关系,进行时间序列的系统演化模型构建,通过模型检验,预测2006-2020年期间典型开发区的系统仿真模拟。模拟显示系统经济持续增长,年增长率下降；污染排放、物质消耗强度指标上升速度变缓,综合集成能力提高。符合生态工业系统设计原则和典型开发区的发展规划。
针对典型开发区基础仿真情景,进行生态工业系统经济增长和环境压力关系动态变化分析。首先构建基于物耗、污染排放的环境压力函数,不仅分析物质流动平衡、效率,而且考虑物质流对系统规模与总量效应；其次土地开发是典型综合开发区发展动力,使得环境影响的驱动因素用地均收入来表征的一致性很高；再次,应用结构分解分析模型,分析土地开发、经济增长、科技进步驱动因素对环境压力影响程度的变化,土地因素造成的环境压力正效应变化呈下降趋势,技术因素的作用会逐渐抵消经济增长的作用,在后期系统技术因素的抑制效应减弱；同时不同类型污染物和消耗物质产生的环境压力不同,并定量分析了环境压力的影响程度,为制定应急策略提供技术支撑。在综合开发区生态工业系统发展策略试验中,设定工业增加值率、环保投资比例、科技投资比例为调控参数,设计五种不同发展情景对经济产出、物质消耗、污染排放的模拟结果进行系统相对效率分析,运用灰色关联度分析,得出系统效率相对最优情景。基于物流、能流、信息流要素管理,对南通经济技术开发区从不同层面提出具体的生态工业管理目标及策略。
The rapid industrial aggregation and industrial ecology demands the scientific decision-making which implementing the macroscopical guidance and the decision-making mechanism in our country can't ensure the optimize collocation, especially during the high speed economy increasing period in China. However,the decision-making in integrated development zone management is quite lack of information management decision support,and ecological industrial management involves system design, system analysis, system management to continuity and comparability.Therefore, system evolution can not effectively simulate control,that environmental strategy choice can not be demonstrated.Management mechanism itself unable to determine optimizing state, which need judge system efficiency with model simulation. Promoting a circular economy has been identified as China's basic national policy, according to the recently enacted 11th five-year plan for China's economic and social development. Circular Economy Promotion Law of the P. R. China had been put into effect on 1 January of 2009. Circular economy planning need Decision support technology. This dissertation tried to explore an integrated approach for industrial system on the basis of System Dynamics,according to the principles of "System simulation analysis "and" system strategy design".
By way of Shannon-Weaver index for the biuologic diversity, the diversity has a significant impact on such aspects of its own industrial ecosystem as perfecting its structure,optimizing its functions, increasing its overall competitiveness and stabilizing its evolution process.This paper first has evaluated the diversity of the industrial ecosystem structure in Nantong Economic and Technological Development Zone (NETDZ) and anologized the adaptability of the diversity as a principle in nature to the industrial ecosystem. The result shows that,the index of the component diversity will decrease gradually with the expansion of the scale year after year, that is to say, the whole ecosystem lacks of stability, the index of industrial structural diversity from structuring element to its network (Hu-Hc-Hn) has declined little by little,which shows that the functional Diversity is imcomplete.
Eco-industrial system models was established for NEDTZ using system dynamics(SD) approach, SD is characterized by a cause-feedback mechanism and interactions among economic variables. SD method consists of dynamic simulation models embracing information feedbacks that govern interactions in a target system. In the study, four subsystems, industrial output, materials wastage, indicator integration, pollution discharge, join with the SD model configuration for the integrated system environments regulation and control. The model runs in Vensim-DSS software and simulates the running of development zone system in 2000's, which has a strong application as model output right with Reported data of Model.During system simulation period, the growth of system performances will been slow. Eco-efficiency factor will increase with years, while the growth of pollution discharge index should been greatest. Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations.
Based on model for eco-industrial system constructed, the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed. The dynamic changes of environmental pressures represented by materials wastage and pollutant emission were examined by using Structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model.Dynamic simulation and changes analysis revealed that, (1) The enviromental pressures Produced two driving factors in NEDTZ has been there according to integrated Eco-industrial management concept,however,increasing environmental pressure started fast droping at the late stage. (2) The enviromental pressure by substances was mainly caused by labor consumption in the process of economic growth, followed by water consumption before 2015 and by energy consumption after 2015. Emission of waste solid provided greatest contrbution to it, followed by the emission of COD.(3) Land factor has positive effect with slower decline, while economic growth factor has obvious impact, and showed a rapid increasing trend at the beginning stage of the period. Technological progress did mitigate, but showed a weakening trend at the late. Three factors on enviromental pressure differed with the kinds of them. And also, on the basis of model simulation, and previous system analysis of eco-industry foundation, scenario analysis of eco-industrial system was applicated in NEDTZ. This paper choosed three adjustment parameters for simulation, including industrial added value ratio, investment proportion of science and technology, investment proportion of environment protection. Through Vensim-DSS software, economy output, pollution emission and matter consumption simulation results in the five scenarios were compared. The results of this study showed that contamination and resource Influences on economy would diminish while total investment output ratio steadily increase,and efficient system of scenario two was the highest by Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), Which means the system reaches its optimal state. Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations. Based on material integration management, ecology industrial management strategy put forward for NEDTZ from different aspects.
本文在系统分析生态工业管理理论与方法研究的基础上,从理论到实证的方向,系统分析了综合工业开发区生态工业基础和产业多样性,确定系统的相对稳定结构与功能,为构建系统持续发展演化模型进行产业生态化分析,通过收集典型综合开发区产业组分、结构信息建立生态工业系统结构元(Hu)-结构链(Hc)-结构网(Hn)的评估过程；典型开发区按产业组分多样性的逐年变化,按企业类型、经济组分等结构多样性指数特征,探讨开发区Hu-Hc-Hn结构多样性的变化规律。
针对综合开发区经济产出系统、物质消耗系统、综合集成系统、污染控制系统的相互影响、相互联系的循环-反馈关系,进行时间序列的系统演化模型构建,通过模型检验,预测2006-2020年期间典型开发区的系统仿真模拟。模拟显示系统经济持续增长,年增长率下降；污染排放、物质消耗强度指标上升速度变缓,综合集成能力提高。符合生态工业系统设计原则和典型开发区的发展规划。
针对典型开发区基础仿真情景,进行生态工业系统经济增长和环境压力关系动态变化分析。首先构建基于物耗、污染排放的环境压力函数,不仅分析物质流动平衡、效率,而且考虑物质流对系统规模与总量效应；其次土地开发是典型综合开发区发展动力,使得环境影响的驱动因素用地均收入来表征的一致性很高；再次,应用结构分解分析模型,分析土地开发、经济增长、科技进步驱动因素对环境压力影响程度的变化,土地因素造成的环境压力正效应变化呈下降趋势,技术因素的作用会逐渐抵消经济增长的作用,在后期系统技术因素的抑制效应减弱；同时不同类型污染物和消耗物质产生的环境压力不同,并定量分析了环境压力的影响程度,为制定应急策略提供技术支撑。在综合开发区生态工业系统发展策略试验中,设定工业增加值率、环保投资比例、科技投资比例为调控参数,设计五种不同发展情景对经济产出、物质消耗、污染排放的模拟结果进行系统相对效率分析,运用灰色关联度分析,得出系统效率相对最优情景。基于物流、能流、信息流要素管理,对南通经济技术开发区从不同层面提出具体的生态工业管理目标及策略。
The rapid industrial aggregation and industrial ecology demands the scientific decision-making which implementing the macroscopical guidance and the decision-making mechanism in our country can't ensure the optimize collocation, especially during the high speed economy increasing period in China. However,the decision-making in integrated development zone management is quite lack of information management decision support,and ecological industrial management involves system design, system analysis, system management to continuity and comparability.Therefore, system evolution can not effectively simulate control,that environmental strategy choice can not be demonstrated.Management mechanism itself unable to determine optimizing state, which need judge system efficiency with model simulation. Promoting a circular economy has been identified as China's basic national policy, according to the recently enacted 11th five-year plan for China's economic and social development. Circular Economy Promotion Law of the P. R. China had been put into effect on 1 January of 2009. Circular economy planning need Decision support technology. This dissertation tried to explore an integrated approach for industrial system on the basis of System Dynamics,according to the principles of "System simulation analysis "and" system strategy design".
By way of Shannon-Weaver index for the biuologic diversity, the diversity has a significant impact on such aspects of its own industrial ecosystem as perfecting its structure,optimizing its functions, increasing its overall competitiveness and stabilizing its evolution process.This paper first has evaluated the diversity of the industrial ecosystem structure in Nantong Economic and Technological Development Zone (NETDZ) and anologized the adaptability of the diversity as a principle in nature to the industrial ecosystem. The result shows that,the index of the component diversity will decrease gradually with the expansion of the scale year after year, that is to say, the whole ecosystem lacks of stability, the index of industrial structural diversity from structuring element to its network (Hu-Hc-Hn) has declined little by little,which shows that the functional Diversity is imcomplete.
Eco-industrial system models was established for NEDTZ using system dynamics(SD) approach, SD is characterized by a cause-feedback mechanism and interactions among economic variables. SD method consists of dynamic simulation models embracing information feedbacks that govern interactions in a target system. In the study, four subsystems, industrial output, materials wastage, indicator integration, pollution discharge, join with the SD model configuration for the integrated system environments regulation and control. The model runs in Vensim-DSS software and simulates the running of development zone system in 2000's, which has a strong application as model output right with Reported data of Model.During system simulation period, the growth of system performances will been slow. Eco-efficiency factor will increase with years, while the growth of pollution discharge index should been greatest. Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations.
Based on model for eco-industrial system constructed, the relationships between economic growth and environmental pressure from 2005 to 2020 was analyzed. The dynamic changes of environmental pressures represented by materials wastage and pollutant emission were examined by using Structural decomposition analysis(SDA) model.Dynamic simulation and changes analysis revealed that, (1) The enviromental pressures Produced two driving factors in NEDTZ has been there according to integrated Eco-industrial management concept,however,increasing environmental pressure started fast droping at the late stage. (2) The enviromental pressure by substances was mainly caused by labor consumption in the process of economic growth, followed by water consumption before 2015 and by energy consumption after 2015. Emission of waste solid provided greatest contrbution to it, followed by the emission of COD.(3) Land factor has positive effect with slower decline, while economic growth factor has obvious impact, and showed a rapid increasing trend at the beginning stage of the period. Technological progress did mitigate, but showed a weakening trend at the late. Three factors on enviromental pressure differed with the kinds of them. And also, on the basis of model simulation, and previous system analysis of eco-industry foundation, scenario analysis of eco-industrial system was applicated in NEDTZ. This paper choosed three adjustment parameters for simulation, including industrial added value ratio, investment proportion of science and technology, investment proportion of environment protection. Through Vensim-DSS software, economy output, pollution emission and matter consumption simulation results in the five scenarios were compared. The results of this study showed that contamination and resource Influences on economy would diminish while total investment output ratio steadily increase,and efficient system of scenario two was the highest by Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), Which means the system reaches its optimal state. Decision makers can fine tune variables and select preferable scenarios of efficient system through simulations. Based on material integration management, ecology industrial management strategy put forward for NEDTZ from different aspects.
引文
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