内蒙古区域金融风险研究
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摘要
金融风险的防范和化解已经成为全世界都关注的重要课题,特别是美国次贷危机和欧洲债务危机爆发以后,区域经济复苏不平衡和区域金融不稳定对整体金融稳定的影响十分显著,一个局部地区的金融风险累积到一定程度并形成区域性金融危机,并可能通过各种渠道对全局的经济金融运行造成较大影响。中央“西部大开发”的战略部署为内蒙古经济的腾飞提供了强有力的助力,内蒙古在经济建设上实现了巨大的突破,也不可避免的累积了大量潜在的金融风险。
本文首先对当前金融风险的相关文献进行研究,在宏观金融工程研究基础上提出本文关于内蒙古自治区区域金融风险研究的基本框架；接着运用资产负债表法对内蒙古自治区区域金融风险进行分析,包括内蒙古自治区经济部门的划分,内蒙古自治区金融部门和企业部门的宏观金融风险分析；然后基于或有权益分析方法构建内蒙古自治区金融部门和企业部门的或有权益资产负债表,并进行风险指标的分析；最后基于金融风险研究提出内蒙古自治区区域金融风险管理体系,并提出预防性和应对性管理的不同措施和手段。
本文将针对内蒙古省主要经济部门——金融部门和企业部门编制宏观资产负债表,就其账面价值和市场价值进行分析。分析结果表明,内蒙古自治区内金融部门风险水平较低,但存在一定的期限错配风险；内蒙古企业部门产权比率一直保持较高水平,清偿力严重不足,内蒙古企业部门存在较大的风险,应当予以密切的关注。基于市场信息的或有权益分析表明,内蒙古企业部门的资本结构错配风险和清偿力风险也较低,压力测试结果显示其抵抗利率变动风险的能力较强。
最后,本文提出以资产负债表风险指标和宏观经济资本为核心,构建内蒙古自治区的宏观金融风险管理框架,注重金融风险防范和管理的逆周期性,构建自治区的宏观金融风险预防性管理体系和应对性管理体系,其中预防性管理体系包括构建内蒙古自治区区域金融风险监测体系、加强基于资产负债表的金融风险监管、加强地方政府或有负债的管理和构造良好的金融生态环境；应对性管理体系则包括建立以地方政府金融危机管理委员会的危机管理工作体制、设立以宏观经济资本为核心的内蒙古金融稳定基金和完善内蒙古金融稳定的政策和机制等。由此也同时分析了最有代表性的鄂尔多斯的民间借贷活动,对改革金融抑制和加快建设地方多层次的金融体系提出了建设性的建议,
To prevent and defuse financial risks has become an important issue of worldwide, especially after the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the debt crisis in Europe, the regional imbalance of economic recovery and regional financial instability on the overall financial stability is very significant, financial risk of a local region accumulated to a certain degree formation of the regional financial crisis, and possibly through the various channels cause greater impact on the global economic and financial stability. The strategic of West development plan for the Inner Mongolia's economic take-off provides a strong boost of economic development in Inner Mongolia which inevitably accumulated a large number of potential financial risks.
In this paper, the current financial risks related to study literature at the macro financial engineering based on the article on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of macro-financial risks of the basic framework; then use the balance sheet method of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of macro financial risk analysis, including the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region the division of economic sectors, financial sector and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of macro-financial corporate sector risk analysis; and analytical methods based on interests or the financial sector and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to build or have interests in the corporate sector balance sheet, and the analysis of risk indicators; last on macro-financial risks of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region made the financial risk management system, and propose preventive and response measures and management of different means.
This paper will address the major economic sectors in Inner Mongolia province-include the financial sector and corporate macro sector balance sheet, analysis its book value and market value. The results show that the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within the financial sector, low level of risk, but there is a certain maturity mismatch risk; Inner Mongolia, the corporate sector equity ratio has been much greater than1, a serious shortage of liquidity, Inner Mongolia, there is a big risk of the corporate sector and should be closely concerned. Based on market information, contingent interest analysis shows that in Inner Mongolia, the corporate sector's capital structure mismatch risk and liquidity risk is also low, stress test results showed its resistance ability to the risk of interest rate changes.
Finally, this paper tries to build the macro-financial risk management framework of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Based on the balance sheet risk indicators and macroeconomic capital, the paper focus on risk prevention and management of adverse cyclical, building regional macroeconomic and financial management systems and risk prevention response management system, which includes building the macro-financial risk monitoring systems Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, to strengthen the balance sheet based on the financial risk regulation, strengthening of local government liabilities for financial management and good ecological environment construction. The response management system include the establishment of local government financial crisis management committee of the crisis management system, the establishment of the capital as the core of macroeconomic financial stabilization fund in Inner Mongolia and the policies and mechanisms to improve the financial stability of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
本文首先对当前金融风险的相关文献进行研究,在宏观金融工程研究基础上提出本文关于内蒙古自治区区域金融风险研究的基本框架；接着运用资产负债表法对内蒙古自治区区域金融风险进行分析,包括内蒙古自治区经济部门的划分,内蒙古自治区金融部门和企业部门的宏观金融风险分析；然后基于或有权益分析方法构建内蒙古自治区金融部门和企业部门的或有权益资产负债表,并进行风险指标的分析；最后基于金融风险研究提出内蒙古自治区区域金融风险管理体系,并提出预防性和应对性管理的不同措施和手段。
本文将针对内蒙古省主要经济部门——金融部门和企业部门编制宏观资产负债表,就其账面价值和市场价值进行分析。分析结果表明,内蒙古自治区内金融部门风险水平较低,但存在一定的期限错配风险；内蒙古企业部门产权比率一直保持较高水平,清偿力严重不足,内蒙古企业部门存在较大的风险,应当予以密切的关注。基于市场信息的或有权益分析表明,内蒙古企业部门的资本结构错配风险和清偿力风险也较低,压力测试结果显示其抵抗利率变动风险的能力较强。
最后,本文提出以资产负债表风险指标和宏观经济资本为核心,构建内蒙古自治区的宏观金融风险管理框架,注重金融风险防范和管理的逆周期性,构建自治区的宏观金融风险预防性管理体系和应对性管理体系,其中预防性管理体系包括构建内蒙古自治区区域金融风险监测体系、加强基于资产负债表的金融风险监管、加强地方政府或有负债的管理和构造良好的金融生态环境；应对性管理体系则包括建立以地方政府金融危机管理委员会的危机管理工作体制、设立以宏观经济资本为核心的内蒙古金融稳定基金和完善内蒙古金融稳定的政策和机制等。由此也同时分析了最有代表性的鄂尔多斯的民间借贷活动,对改革金融抑制和加快建设地方多层次的金融体系提出了建设性的建议,
To prevent and defuse financial risks has become an important issue of worldwide, especially after the outbreak of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the debt crisis in Europe, the regional imbalance of economic recovery and regional financial instability on the overall financial stability is very significant, financial risk of a local region accumulated to a certain degree formation of the regional financial crisis, and possibly through the various channels cause greater impact on the global economic and financial stability. The strategic of West development plan for the Inner Mongolia's economic take-off provides a strong boost of economic development in Inner Mongolia which inevitably accumulated a large number of potential financial risks.
In this paper, the current financial risks related to study literature at the macro financial engineering based on the article on the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of macro-financial risks of the basic framework; then use the balance sheet method of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of macro financial risk analysis, including the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region the division of economic sectors, financial sector and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of macro-financial corporate sector risk analysis; and analytical methods based on interests or the financial sector and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region to build or have interests in the corporate sector balance sheet, and the analysis of risk indicators; last on macro-financial risks of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region made the financial risk management system, and propose preventive and response measures and management of different means.
This paper will address the major economic sectors in Inner Mongolia province-include the financial sector and corporate macro sector balance sheet, analysis its book value and market value. The results show that the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within the financial sector, low level of risk, but there is a certain maturity mismatch risk; Inner Mongolia, the corporate sector equity ratio has been much greater than1, a serious shortage of liquidity, Inner Mongolia, there is a big risk of the corporate sector and should be closely concerned. Based on market information, contingent interest analysis shows that in Inner Mongolia, the corporate sector's capital structure mismatch risk and liquidity risk is also low, stress test results showed its resistance ability to the risk of interest rate changes.
Finally, this paper tries to build the macro-financial risk management framework of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Based on the balance sheet risk indicators and macroeconomic capital, the paper focus on risk prevention and management of adverse cyclical, building regional macroeconomic and financial management systems and risk prevention response management system, which includes building the macro-financial risk monitoring systems Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, to strengthen the balance sheet based on the financial risk regulation, strengthening of local government liabilities for financial management and good ecological environment construction. The response management system include the establishment of local government financial crisis management committee of the crisis management system, the establishment of the capital as the core of macroeconomic financial stabilization fund in Inner Mongolia and the policies and mechanisms to improve the financial stability of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
引文
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[2]白钦先、薛誉华,百年来的全球金融业并购：经济金融化、金融全球化和金融自由化的体现,上海金融,2001(8)
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