信贷配给与区域经济发展
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摘要
改革开放30多年来,中国银行业信贷总量和经济总量GDP都实现了快速增长,两者的变化趋势基本一致,究竟是某种巧合,还是另有其因?如果二者之间存在一定的因果关系,究竟孰是因、孰是果?需要我们做进一步的研究分析。人们对信贷配给与区域经济发展持何种关系的认识,将直接深刻影响到国家财政政策、货币政策和信贷政策的制定和执行,影响到中国区域经济和实体经济的发展,影响到中国宏观经济发展目标的实现。因此,在这样大背景下进行此课题的研究,无疑对四大区域经济协调非均衡发展和信贷配给效率的提升以及寻找缩小区域经济发展差距的金融良策具有重大的现实意义,可以说,其研究不但具有非常重要的现实理论意义和较大的深远影响,而且有较高的实用价值和较强的政策指导性,特别在宏观方面有助于理解中国区域经济发展的差异性和区域差异化的货币信贷政策制定的有效性,有助于如何在当前全球金融危机下充分发挥信贷配给作用,助推中国区域经济非均衡协调发展。
信贷配给至今没有一个统一公认的定义,信贷配给测度指标也没有,文献往往都是说比较难而一带而过。本文在总结和吸取前人研究的基础上,重新界定了信贷配给的定义和信贷配给测度指标,认为信贷配给是对信贷资金需求方的约束,是信贷市场供需的一种失衡,它既是一个绝对的概念,又是一个相对和动态的概念。它表现为供不应求(即信贷不足)和供过于求(即信贷过度)两种情况。从大量文献来看,信贷配给与区域经济发展关系问题的研究主要散落于金融(中介)发展与经济发展关系的文献之中,由于研究的目的、范围、方法等不同,得出的结论也迥然不同,一般来说,信贷配给与经济发展主要有单向因果关系、双向因果关系和没有因果关系三种。尽管有大量文献涉及到此问题的研究,但专题研究文献至今没有,仍是一项空白,因此进行该专题研究很具有一定挑战性,相信其研究成果对今后该领域的深入研究能够起到一种抛砖引玉的作用。
建国以来,中国区域经济发展战略经历了均衡发展一非均衡发展和非均衡协调发展三个阶段。改革开放后,中国经济持续高速增长被世界堪称“中国之谜”,但其背后是四大区域经济发展的结构性断裂,中国经济发展主要依靠东部拉动,但东部经济的快速增长并没有同比例地带动中西部和东北地区的经济增长。中国区域经济发展差异较大,测度区域经济发展差异的不同指标呈现出“S”型、“L”型、倒“U”型和“W”型等不同形状和特征的区域经济发展差异趋势。其形成原因,不同学者从不同角度给出了不同的答案,但本文从资本因素的角度分析,认为信贷资金、外商投资、全社会固定资产投资等资金投入在四大区域间分布的极端不平衡是形成区域经济发展差异的一些原因。
从中国信贷配给的演进与制度变迁来看,中国信贷配给始终是一种非均衡现象,整体上经历了完全计划性的信贷配给、计划性向市场化转变的信贷配给和基本市场化的信贷配给三个阶段,在前两个阶段是一种“超贷”的非均衡信贷市场,第三个阶段是以“惜贷”为特征的非均衡信贷配给,它与西方商业银行市场化为特征的信贷配给是有差异的。在四大区域经济发展差异和信贷配给体制改革的双重作用下,中国四大区域信贷配给实际上是“计划”与“市场”的“双重信贷配给”机制,即麦金农和肖式M-S模型的“政府主导型”信贷配给和斯蒂格利茨等S-W模型“市场主体型”信贷配给,这就进一步加剧了信贷配给的区域差异性,造成信贷资金高速流向低风险、高收益的经济发达的区域,延缓流向高风险、低收益的经济相对落后区域,或资金“回流”经济发达区域,使信贷配给区域差异高度非均衡,存在区域结构性的严重“超贷”与“惜贷”并存的“空间分布”不均衡怪现象。因此,正确认识来自“政府主导机制”与“市场机制”两个方面的信贷配给的“双重性”和信贷配给的“区域差异性”以及与四大区域经济发展非均衡差异性的耦合,是有效消除信贷配给区域差异性和促进区域经济非均衡协调发展的根本前提和重要保证。
通过采用固定效应模型,控制各个区域存在的固定效应,对中国省级层面和区域层面1978-2007年不同区域情况下信贷配给与经济发展之间的相互作用和因果关系进行了实证分析,结论表明,信贷配给与区域经济发展之间存在因果关系,但区域差异性较大,在东部和中部区域两者之间表现为信贷配给对经济发展有相对较小的单向促进作用的因果关系；在西部区域两者之间却存在一些内生性双向因果关系。一方面信贷配给对区域经济发展有影响,呈现由经济发达的地区向经济落后的地区梯度增强的趋势。另一方面经济发展对信贷配给的区域性差异影响较大,在经济发达的东部和经济相对发达的中部,区域经济发展对信贷配给影响较小,在经济相对落后的西部区域,区域经济发展对信贷配给的影响却较大。同时,信贷配给具有明显的区域强弱性特征,表现为在经济发达的东部区域和经济相对发达的中部区域信贷配给较弱,而在经济比较落后的西部区域信贷配给较强,支持和论证了Patrick关于信贷配给“供给引导”和“需求跟随”的理论观点。股市融资对区域经济发展起着越来越重要的作用,对银行信贷有显著的替代作用。
市场协调是基础,政府协调是补充。建议政府通过“看不见的手”的“市场协调机制”和“看得见的手”的“政府协调机制”来统筹协调信贷配给与区域经济发展,通过一定的行政干预和必要的宏观调控的双重手段弥补市场失灵,共同推动信贷配给与区域经济非均衡协调发展,实现中国经济“四轮驱动”共同快速发展的目标。
Over 30 years since the reform and opening up to the world, the Chinese Banking industry credit gross and the economic output GDP have increased rapidly, and the developing tendencies of them are basically in the same pace. Is there actually some kind of coincidence, or some other reasons in addition? If there is certain causal relation between them, then, which is the causation, and which is the result? A further research is required to be made out. The understandings of the relationship between the credit rationing with various regional economies development will have great effects on the establishment and the execution of the state finance policies,monetary policies and credit policies.At the same time,it will affect the implement of the financial policies,monetary policies and credit policies, the development of Chinese regional economy and the entity economy, even the realization of the Chinese macro economic development goals. Therefore, a research on this topic in such a background, undoubtedly has great practical significance on coordinating to the non-balanced development of the four wide regional economies, the promotion of the credit rationing efficiency and a nice financial policy to narrow the gap in regional economic development. We dare say that the research not only brings important realistic theory significance and the tremendous profound influence, but also has a highly using value and a strong policy guidance. Particularly in the macroscopic aspect, it is helpful to understand the differences of the Chinese regional economies development and the effectiveness of the establishment of monetary and credit policies about the regional differences, to promote the non-balanced coordinated development of the Chinese regional economies by making full use of the credit rationing in the present global financial crisis.
There is no unified and acknowledged definition on credit rationing so far, and even no measuring indicators of credit rationing. The above-mentioned were considered to be too difficult to be included in the literatures, so they were not paid enough attention seriously. This article re-defined the definition of credit rationing and the measuring indicators of credit rationing on the basis of summarizing and absorbing on the previous studies. It is considered that credit rationing is a constraint for demand-side of credit funds and an imbalance between the supply and the demand in the credit markets. It is not only an absolute concept, is also a relative and dynamic concept. It is manifested in two situations:short supply (lack of credit) and an over-supply (excessive credit). According to a large amount of literature, the study of the relationships between credit rationing and regional economic development is scattered in the literature on the relationships between financial (intermediaries) development and economic development. Conclusions are also different because of different objectives, scopes, methods of research.. Generally speaking, there are three relationships between the credit rationing and economic development including one-way causation, two-way causation and non-causation relationship. Although a large amount of literature is involved in the researches of the topic above, there is no special and professional study in this area yet. Therefore, special studies of this topic will be a great challenge. The achievement of the researches is believed to be great valuable to other people.
Since the founding of our country, China's regional economic development strategies have came through three stages:an equilibrium development non-equilibrium development and non-equilibrium and coordinated development. After reform and opening up, China's sustained rapid economic growth has been called "Chinese Puzzle", but structural breaks of four major regional economic development are hidden. China's economic growth mainly relies on the pulling of eastern region, but the Midwest and the Northeast region's economic growth has not been driven in the same proportion by rapid growth of eastern region. China's regional economic development is quite different, and indicators of differences of the regional economic development takes on different trends in forms and features of "S" type, "L" type, inverted "U" type and "W"-type. With regard to the formation of the reasons, different scholars give different answers from different angles. However, this research from the respect of the capital investment, argues that the extreme imbalances of the main four inter-regional distribution in capital investment including credit funds,foreign investment and total fixed asset investment are the main economic reasons.
In the view of the evolution and institutional transition of China's Credit rationing, China's credit rationing has always been a non-equilibrium phenomenon, as a whole, it went through three stages, a complete program of credit rationing, a planning market-oriented inclinations of credit rationing and the basic market-oriented credit rationing. It is a "super credit" non-equilibrium credit market nn the first two stages.The feature of the third stage is non-equilibrium credit rationing on a "credit crunch", which is different from the feature of market in Western commercial banks. Under the influence of the four major regional economic development disparities and credit rationing system reform, China's four main regional credit rationing is actually a mechanism of "plan" and "market" of the "dual credit rationing", namely, the "government-led" credit rationing and Stiglitz and other S-W model "of market players type" credit rationing of McKinnon and Shaw-type MS model. It will further intensify the regional differences of credit rationing, which leads to credit funds fast flowing to low-risk, high-yield and developed regions, slowing down the inflow of funds into high-risk, low-yield and relatively backward regions, or funds "back" to developed regions. Also, it will lead to high disequilibrium of regional differences of credit rationing and a non-equilibrium strange phenomenon of the non-equilibrium of the "spatial distribution" where serious regional structural "excess credit" and "short credit "coexist. Therefore, A Correct Understanding of the combination of the following three aspects is a fundamental prerequisite and an important guarantee to eliminate regional differences of credit rationing and to promote regional economic coordinated development of non-equilibrium effectively. The first is the dual nature of credit rationing coming from " government leading mechanism" and "market mechanism", the second is "regional differences" of credit rationing, and the third is non-equilibrium differences of four regional economic development
Adoption of a fixed-effect model to control the fixed effects of all of the regional existence, an empirical analysis is made, about the interaction and causation between Credit Rationing and Regional Economic Development in the provincial levels and regional levels in China's different regions from 1978 to 2007. Conclusions indicate that causal relationship exists between credit rationing and regional economic development, but regional differences are remarkable, the influence of the credit rationing on economic development has a relatively small role in promoting one-way causal relationship between the eastern and central regions; however there is a significant endogenous more two-way causality between two western regions. On the one hand, credit rationing has an effect on regional economic development, presenting a gradient-enhanced tendency from the developed areas to the backward areas. On the other hand, economic development has a great influence on regional differences of credit rationing. Regional economic development has less impact on credit rationing in the developed eastern regions and relatively developed central regions, but has more impact on the relatively backward western regions. At the same time, Credit rationing has obvious characteristics of the strength of the regional. Credit rationing is relatively weak in the developed eastern regions and the relatively well-developed central region, but strong in the backward western regions, which supports and demonstrates Patrick's "supply-leading" and " demand-following " theory on the credit rationing. In addition, also found that equity financing plays a more and more important role in regional economic development, which is a significant substitution for the bank credit.
Market coordination is the foundation, and government coordination is a supplement. We will endeavor to coordinate credit rationing and regional economic development by the "invisible hand" of the "market coordination mechanisms" and the "visible hand" of the "government coordination mechanism", to compensate for the market failures by certain administrative intervention and the necessary macro-control means, to promote non-balanced and coordinated development of credit rationing and the regional economy together, to realize the goal that "four-wheel drive" of China's economies develop rapidly together.
信贷配给至今没有一个统一公认的定义,信贷配给测度指标也没有,文献往往都是说比较难而一带而过。本文在总结和吸取前人研究的基础上,重新界定了信贷配给的定义和信贷配给测度指标,认为信贷配给是对信贷资金需求方的约束,是信贷市场供需的一种失衡,它既是一个绝对的概念,又是一个相对和动态的概念。它表现为供不应求(即信贷不足)和供过于求(即信贷过度)两种情况。从大量文献来看,信贷配给与区域经济发展关系问题的研究主要散落于金融(中介)发展与经济发展关系的文献之中,由于研究的目的、范围、方法等不同,得出的结论也迥然不同,一般来说,信贷配给与经济发展主要有单向因果关系、双向因果关系和没有因果关系三种。尽管有大量文献涉及到此问题的研究,但专题研究文献至今没有,仍是一项空白,因此进行该专题研究很具有一定挑战性,相信其研究成果对今后该领域的深入研究能够起到一种抛砖引玉的作用。
建国以来,中国区域经济发展战略经历了均衡发展一非均衡发展和非均衡协调发展三个阶段。改革开放后,中国经济持续高速增长被世界堪称“中国之谜”,但其背后是四大区域经济发展的结构性断裂,中国经济发展主要依靠东部拉动,但东部经济的快速增长并没有同比例地带动中西部和东北地区的经济增长。中国区域经济发展差异较大,测度区域经济发展差异的不同指标呈现出“S”型、“L”型、倒“U”型和“W”型等不同形状和特征的区域经济发展差异趋势。其形成原因,不同学者从不同角度给出了不同的答案,但本文从资本因素的角度分析,认为信贷资金、外商投资、全社会固定资产投资等资金投入在四大区域间分布的极端不平衡是形成区域经济发展差异的一些原因。
从中国信贷配给的演进与制度变迁来看,中国信贷配给始终是一种非均衡现象,整体上经历了完全计划性的信贷配给、计划性向市场化转变的信贷配给和基本市场化的信贷配给三个阶段,在前两个阶段是一种“超贷”的非均衡信贷市场,第三个阶段是以“惜贷”为特征的非均衡信贷配给,它与西方商业银行市场化为特征的信贷配给是有差异的。在四大区域经济发展差异和信贷配给体制改革的双重作用下,中国四大区域信贷配给实际上是“计划”与“市场”的“双重信贷配给”机制,即麦金农和肖式M-S模型的“政府主导型”信贷配给和斯蒂格利茨等S-W模型“市场主体型”信贷配给,这就进一步加剧了信贷配给的区域差异性,造成信贷资金高速流向低风险、高收益的经济发达的区域,延缓流向高风险、低收益的经济相对落后区域,或资金“回流”经济发达区域,使信贷配给区域差异高度非均衡,存在区域结构性的严重“超贷”与“惜贷”并存的“空间分布”不均衡怪现象。因此,正确认识来自“政府主导机制”与“市场机制”两个方面的信贷配给的“双重性”和信贷配给的“区域差异性”以及与四大区域经济发展非均衡差异性的耦合,是有效消除信贷配给区域差异性和促进区域经济非均衡协调发展的根本前提和重要保证。
通过采用固定效应模型,控制各个区域存在的固定效应,对中国省级层面和区域层面1978-2007年不同区域情况下信贷配给与经济发展之间的相互作用和因果关系进行了实证分析,结论表明,信贷配给与区域经济发展之间存在因果关系,但区域差异性较大,在东部和中部区域两者之间表现为信贷配给对经济发展有相对较小的单向促进作用的因果关系；在西部区域两者之间却存在一些内生性双向因果关系。一方面信贷配给对区域经济发展有影响,呈现由经济发达的地区向经济落后的地区梯度增强的趋势。另一方面经济发展对信贷配给的区域性差异影响较大,在经济发达的东部和经济相对发达的中部,区域经济发展对信贷配给影响较小,在经济相对落后的西部区域,区域经济发展对信贷配给的影响却较大。同时,信贷配给具有明显的区域强弱性特征,表现为在经济发达的东部区域和经济相对发达的中部区域信贷配给较弱,而在经济比较落后的西部区域信贷配给较强,支持和论证了Patrick关于信贷配给“供给引导”和“需求跟随”的理论观点。股市融资对区域经济发展起着越来越重要的作用,对银行信贷有显著的替代作用。
市场协调是基础,政府协调是补充。建议政府通过“看不见的手”的“市场协调机制”和“看得见的手”的“政府协调机制”来统筹协调信贷配给与区域经济发展,通过一定的行政干预和必要的宏观调控的双重手段弥补市场失灵,共同推动信贷配给与区域经济非均衡协调发展,实现中国经济“四轮驱动”共同快速发展的目标。
Over 30 years since the reform and opening up to the world, the Chinese Banking industry credit gross and the economic output GDP have increased rapidly, and the developing tendencies of them are basically in the same pace. Is there actually some kind of coincidence, or some other reasons in addition? If there is certain causal relation between them, then, which is the causation, and which is the result? A further research is required to be made out. The understandings of the relationship between the credit rationing with various regional economies development will have great effects on the establishment and the execution of the state finance policies,monetary policies and credit policies.At the same time,it will affect the implement of the financial policies,monetary policies and credit policies, the development of Chinese regional economy and the entity economy, even the realization of the Chinese macro economic development goals. Therefore, a research on this topic in such a background, undoubtedly has great practical significance on coordinating to the non-balanced development of the four wide regional economies, the promotion of the credit rationing efficiency and a nice financial policy to narrow the gap in regional economic development. We dare say that the research not only brings important realistic theory significance and the tremendous profound influence, but also has a highly using value and a strong policy guidance. Particularly in the macroscopic aspect, it is helpful to understand the differences of the Chinese regional economies development and the effectiveness of the establishment of monetary and credit policies about the regional differences, to promote the non-balanced coordinated development of the Chinese regional economies by making full use of the credit rationing in the present global financial crisis.
There is no unified and acknowledged definition on credit rationing so far, and even no measuring indicators of credit rationing. The above-mentioned were considered to be too difficult to be included in the literatures, so they were not paid enough attention seriously. This article re-defined the definition of credit rationing and the measuring indicators of credit rationing on the basis of summarizing and absorbing on the previous studies. It is considered that credit rationing is a constraint for demand-side of credit funds and an imbalance between the supply and the demand in the credit markets. It is not only an absolute concept, is also a relative and dynamic concept. It is manifested in two situations:short supply (lack of credit) and an over-supply (excessive credit). According to a large amount of literature, the study of the relationships between credit rationing and regional economic development is scattered in the literature on the relationships between financial (intermediaries) development and economic development. Conclusions are also different because of different objectives, scopes, methods of research.. Generally speaking, there are three relationships between the credit rationing and economic development including one-way causation, two-way causation and non-causation relationship. Although a large amount of literature is involved in the researches of the topic above, there is no special and professional study in this area yet. Therefore, special studies of this topic will be a great challenge. The achievement of the researches is believed to be great valuable to other people.
Since the founding of our country, China's regional economic development strategies have came through three stages:an equilibrium development non-equilibrium development and non-equilibrium and coordinated development. After reform and opening up, China's sustained rapid economic growth has been called "Chinese Puzzle", but structural breaks of four major regional economic development are hidden. China's economic growth mainly relies on the pulling of eastern region, but the Midwest and the Northeast region's economic growth has not been driven in the same proportion by rapid growth of eastern region. China's regional economic development is quite different, and indicators of differences of the regional economic development takes on different trends in forms and features of "S" type, "L" type, inverted "U" type and "W"-type. With regard to the formation of the reasons, different scholars give different answers from different angles. However, this research from the respect of the capital investment, argues that the extreme imbalances of the main four inter-regional distribution in capital investment including credit funds,foreign investment and total fixed asset investment are the main economic reasons.
In the view of the evolution and institutional transition of China's Credit rationing, China's credit rationing has always been a non-equilibrium phenomenon, as a whole, it went through three stages, a complete program of credit rationing, a planning market-oriented inclinations of credit rationing and the basic market-oriented credit rationing. It is a "super credit" non-equilibrium credit market nn the first two stages.The feature of the third stage is non-equilibrium credit rationing on a "credit crunch", which is different from the feature of market in Western commercial banks. Under the influence of the four major regional economic development disparities and credit rationing system reform, China's four main regional credit rationing is actually a mechanism of "plan" and "market" of the "dual credit rationing", namely, the "government-led" credit rationing and Stiglitz and other S-W model "of market players type" credit rationing of McKinnon and Shaw-type MS model. It will further intensify the regional differences of credit rationing, which leads to credit funds fast flowing to low-risk, high-yield and developed regions, slowing down the inflow of funds into high-risk, low-yield and relatively backward regions, or funds "back" to developed regions. Also, it will lead to high disequilibrium of regional differences of credit rationing and a non-equilibrium strange phenomenon of the non-equilibrium of the "spatial distribution" where serious regional structural "excess credit" and "short credit "coexist. Therefore, A Correct Understanding of the combination of the following three aspects is a fundamental prerequisite and an important guarantee to eliminate regional differences of credit rationing and to promote regional economic coordinated development of non-equilibrium effectively. The first is the dual nature of credit rationing coming from " government leading mechanism" and "market mechanism", the second is "regional differences" of credit rationing, and the third is non-equilibrium differences of four regional economic development
Adoption of a fixed-effect model to control the fixed effects of all of the regional existence, an empirical analysis is made, about the interaction and causation between Credit Rationing and Regional Economic Development in the provincial levels and regional levels in China's different regions from 1978 to 2007. Conclusions indicate that causal relationship exists between credit rationing and regional economic development, but regional differences are remarkable, the influence of the credit rationing on economic development has a relatively small role in promoting one-way causal relationship between the eastern and central regions; however there is a significant endogenous more two-way causality between two western regions. On the one hand, credit rationing has an effect on regional economic development, presenting a gradient-enhanced tendency from the developed areas to the backward areas. On the other hand, economic development has a great influence on regional differences of credit rationing. Regional economic development has less impact on credit rationing in the developed eastern regions and relatively developed central regions, but has more impact on the relatively backward western regions. At the same time, Credit rationing has obvious characteristics of the strength of the regional. Credit rationing is relatively weak in the developed eastern regions and the relatively well-developed central region, but strong in the backward western regions, which supports and demonstrates Patrick's "supply-leading" and " demand-following " theory on the credit rationing. In addition, also found that equity financing plays a more and more important role in regional economic development, which is a significant substitution for the bank credit.
Market coordination is the foundation, and government coordination is a supplement. We will endeavor to coordinate credit rationing and regional economic development by the "invisible hand" of the "market coordination mechanisms" and the "visible hand" of the "government coordination mechanism", to compensate for the market failures by certain administrative intervention and the necessary macro-control means, to promote non-balanced and coordinated development of credit rationing and the regional economy together, to realize the goal that "four-wheel drive" of China's economies develop rapidly together.
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