中国股票市场主要参与者行为特征研究
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摘要
中国股票市场成立于我国由计划经济向市场经济转轨时期,三十多年来,我国股票市场发展迅速,在短短时期内快速发展为世界上第三大股票市场。当前我国股票市场的总体状况是大而不强,尽管市场规模处于世界前列,但是,股票市场运行效率总体低下。
我国股票市场运行效率低下的原因主要是由于我国股票市场运行机制存在缺陷,股票市场运行存在着来自于股票市场内部和外部的各种约束,市场机制难以充分发挥作用。影响股票市场正常运转的内部约束主要是指维系股票市场正常运转所需的各种规则、制度存在缺失或者不够健全,外部约束则主要是指政府的过度行政干预、法律法规不健全、社会诚信体系欠缺等方面。
运行机制由市场上的相关参与者行为共同决定,研究运行机制离不开对决定运行机制的参与人行为特征的分析。本文从研究我国股票市场参与者行为特征的角度,运用博弈论方法,通过研究股票市场上各参与者行为特征的历史沿革和现实表现、我国股票市场参与者与理想股票市场相应参与者行为特征之间存在的差异、以及我国股票市场上各参与者行为之间的相互影响,深入揭示我国股票市场运行机制中存在的问题,探寻我国股票市场运行效率低下的根源,进而提出改进我国股票市场运行效率的政策建议。
本文分析了我国股票市场上三个主要参与者(上市公司、投资者和政府)的行为特征及其历史沿革,在深入分析各参与者行为特征的基础上,通过建立博弈模型,对各参与者之间的相互作用方式进行了分析,探寻隐藏在我国股票市场主要参与者表面行为下的内在作用机理,在对作用机理进行分析的基础上,结合我国实际情况,对我国股票市场总体运行状况进行了评价。
通过研究本文发现,造成我国股票市场效率低下的原因,既有政府行为变异的影响,也有投资者和上市公司参与股票市场非理性化行为的影响,这三个方面交互影响、相互作用,共同使得我国股票市场运行效率低下。
我国股票市场并不存在独特特征,其运行与世界上其它国家股票市场之间并非存在根本不同。我国股票市场之所以存在一些与发达国家股票市场不同的表现,主要原因在于同发达国家股票市场相比,我国股票市场上上市公司、投资者和政府行为存在变异,这些变异使得我国股票市场运行机制难以健全,对我国股票市场正常运转带来严重的制约。这些制约因素或者产生于股票市场内部,或者由外部强加给股票市场,它们犹如落入运转中齿轮间的沙子、或者是捆绑于巨人身上的绳索,严重束缚着我国股票市场正常运转,对我国股票市场运行效率发挥着重大的不利影响。
China stock market has been developing rapidly and now is the third largest market in the world since it was established more than30years ago when china was then carrying out the policy of transformation of the planned economy to the market economy. Although among the largest stock market throughout the world, China stock market still runs inefficiently, it is big but not strong.
The reason why China stock market runs inefficiently lies in that there are kinds of deficiencies both from inside and outside of China stock market that restrain it from an efficient operation. The restraints from the inside are the lack of kinds of rules that a stock market depends on them to run efficiently, and the restraints from the outside refer to the over-intervention of the government into the stock market, the imperfectness of the laws and regulations and the lack of social credit system etc..
How does a market operate depends on the participants'behaviors in it, it is necessary to study the participants'behaviors when one wants to have a better understanding of the efficiency of a stock market. This essay tries to study China stock market's operating mechanism by analyzing its participants'behaviors with the method of game theory. Through the study of both past and present characteristics of the participants'behaviors in China stock market and the interaction among them, comparing them to the counterparts of ideal stock market, the essay wants to reveal what's the real problem in China's stock market, and the reason why China stock market run inefficiently.
This paper has analyzed the behavioral characteristics of three main participants, these are listing Corporations, investors and the government, in China stock market and their historical evolution. Based on in-depth analysis of the behavioral characteristics, through the establishment of game models, the interactions between the participants were analyzed, the mechanism underlying the participants'behaviors are explored, and the operating status of China stock market is evaluated.
The study found that the reasons why China stock market operates inefficiently are due to inefficient governmental behavior, irrational behavior of listing corporations and investors, and the interactions among these three participants.
China stock market is not unique comparing to the stock markets in other countries around the world, there is no fundamental difference between China stock market and other countries'stock markets. The reason why China stock market performs differently with that of other countries is only due to the fact that the three participants in China stock market don't behave in a rational and efficient way, this in turn makes the improvement of efficiency of China stock market impossible. There are many restraints both from the outside and the inside of the stock market that prevent market mechanism operating efficiently, those restraints hold back the fluent operation of China stock market and make China stock market an inefficient stock market, just like the sands that fall into the running toothed gears or the ropes that tie on a giant tightly.
我国股票市场运行效率低下的原因主要是由于我国股票市场运行机制存在缺陷,股票市场运行存在着来自于股票市场内部和外部的各种约束,市场机制难以充分发挥作用。影响股票市场正常运转的内部约束主要是指维系股票市场正常运转所需的各种规则、制度存在缺失或者不够健全,外部约束则主要是指政府的过度行政干预、法律法规不健全、社会诚信体系欠缺等方面。
运行机制由市场上的相关参与者行为共同决定,研究运行机制离不开对决定运行机制的参与人行为特征的分析。本文从研究我国股票市场参与者行为特征的角度,运用博弈论方法,通过研究股票市场上各参与者行为特征的历史沿革和现实表现、我国股票市场参与者与理想股票市场相应参与者行为特征之间存在的差异、以及我国股票市场上各参与者行为之间的相互影响,深入揭示我国股票市场运行机制中存在的问题,探寻我国股票市场运行效率低下的根源,进而提出改进我国股票市场运行效率的政策建议。
本文分析了我国股票市场上三个主要参与者(上市公司、投资者和政府)的行为特征及其历史沿革,在深入分析各参与者行为特征的基础上,通过建立博弈模型,对各参与者之间的相互作用方式进行了分析,探寻隐藏在我国股票市场主要参与者表面行为下的内在作用机理,在对作用机理进行分析的基础上,结合我国实际情况,对我国股票市场总体运行状况进行了评价。
通过研究本文发现,造成我国股票市场效率低下的原因,既有政府行为变异的影响,也有投资者和上市公司参与股票市场非理性化行为的影响,这三个方面交互影响、相互作用,共同使得我国股票市场运行效率低下。
我国股票市场并不存在独特特征,其运行与世界上其它国家股票市场之间并非存在根本不同。我国股票市场之所以存在一些与发达国家股票市场不同的表现,主要原因在于同发达国家股票市场相比,我国股票市场上上市公司、投资者和政府行为存在变异,这些变异使得我国股票市场运行机制难以健全,对我国股票市场正常运转带来严重的制约。这些制约因素或者产生于股票市场内部,或者由外部强加给股票市场,它们犹如落入运转中齿轮间的沙子、或者是捆绑于巨人身上的绳索,严重束缚着我国股票市场正常运转,对我国股票市场运行效率发挥着重大的不利影响。
China stock market has been developing rapidly and now is the third largest market in the world since it was established more than30years ago when china was then carrying out the policy of transformation of the planned economy to the market economy. Although among the largest stock market throughout the world, China stock market still runs inefficiently, it is big but not strong.
The reason why China stock market runs inefficiently lies in that there are kinds of deficiencies both from inside and outside of China stock market that restrain it from an efficient operation. The restraints from the inside are the lack of kinds of rules that a stock market depends on them to run efficiently, and the restraints from the outside refer to the over-intervention of the government into the stock market, the imperfectness of the laws and regulations and the lack of social credit system etc..
How does a market operate depends on the participants'behaviors in it, it is necessary to study the participants'behaviors when one wants to have a better understanding of the efficiency of a stock market. This essay tries to study China stock market's operating mechanism by analyzing its participants'behaviors with the method of game theory. Through the study of both past and present characteristics of the participants'behaviors in China stock market and the interaction among them, comparing them to the counterparts of ideal stock market, the essay wants to reveal what's the real problem in China's stock market, and the reason why China stock market run inefficiently.
This paper has analyzed the behavioral characteristics of three main participants, these are listing Corporations, investors and the government, in China stock market and their historical evolution. Based on in-depth analysis of the behavioral characteristics, through the establishment of game models, the interactions between the participants were analyzed, the mechanism underlying the participants'behaviors are explored, and the operating status of China stock market is evaluated.
The study found that the reasons why China stock market operates inefficiently are due to inefficient governmental behavior, irrational behavior of listing corporations and investors, and the interactions among these three participants.
China stock market is not unique comparing to the stock markets in other countries around the world, there is no fundamental difference between China stock market and other countries'stock markets. The reason why China stock market performs differently with that of other countries is only due to the fact that the three participants in China stock market don't behave in a rational and efficient way, this in turn makes the improvement of efficiency of China stock market impossible. There are many restraints both from the outside and the inside of the stock market that prevent market mechanism operating efficiently, those restraints hold back the fluent operation of China stock market and make China stock market an inefficient stock market, just like the sands that fall into the running toothed gears or the ropes that tie on a giant tightly.
引文
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