大型灌区节水改造项目综合后评价指标权重确定及评价方法研究
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摘要
本文在查阅国内外大量相关文献资料的基础上,结合陕西省关中九大灌区节水改造项目的实际,采用理论方法研究与实例应用相结合的技术路线,主要对大型灌区节水改造项目评价指标体系权重确定和综合评价方法进行了研究,主要研究成果为：
(1)针对目前灌区评价指标权重确定中常用的主观赋权法和客观赋权法各自存在的缺陷,将综合主、客观影响因素的综合集成赋权法引入灌区节水改造项目综合评价,并对三种主要的、不同原理的综合集成赋权法在大型灌区节水改造项目综合评价中的应用情况进行了对比研究,这三种综合集成赋权法分别为：基于单位化约束条件的综合集成赋权法、基于博弈论的综合集成赋权法、基于离差平方和的综合集成赋权法；应用结果表明,由于3种综合集成赋权法的数学原理不同,根据3种综合集成赋权法得到的权重结果以及多个灌区综合评价值大小排序结果并不一致,在实际应用中,可根据实际需要选择相应的综合权重确定方法。
(2)在分析目前已有的评价方法的基础上,对灌区节水改造项目综合后评价方法做了深入研究,提出了静态评价和动态评价2种思路,静态评价方法选用“拉开档次的递阶综合评价方法”,动态评价方法选用“纵向拉开档次法”、“纵横向拉开档次法”和“时序加权平均算子”方法。
(3)在静态评价方面,针对目前常见的静态评价方法在对多个灌区进行评价时容易出现评价结果接近或一致而难以区分的缺陷,应用“拉开档次的递阶综合评价方法”对灌区节水改造项目进行静态评价。该方法在计算过程中通过两次不同原理的赋权既保证了指标权重取值的科学合理性,还保证了评价结果的易于区分性；不仅可以对多个灌区节水改造项目总体优劣情况进行区分评价,也可以对不同灌区节水改造项目各分层目标的优劣情况进行区分评价,从而可以对多个灌区的节水改造项目进行全面、系统、详细的评价。
(4)为了对某一个灌区在多年的节水改造情况进行动态评价,运用“纵向拉开档次法”以陕西省泾惠渠灌区2002年～2005年各年的节水改造项目综合评价为例进行了动态评价研究,应用结果表明,“纵向拉开档次法”可以对单个灌区连续多年各年的节水改造项目进行有效的动态区分评价,且计算量较少,有较好的实际应用价值。
(5)为了对多个灌区在多年内的节水改造项目进行纵向(时间维)和横向(灌区之间)的动态区分评价,运用“纵横向拉开档次法”对关中九大灌区节水改造项目生态环境效益进行了动态评价。应用结果表明,“纵横向拉开档次法”可以同时对多个灌区在不同年份的节水改造项目实施情况进行评价,且在不影响大小排序的情况下,可以使评价结果充分拉开档次,这样不仅大大减少了动态评价的计算量,而且使得各评价对象在各时刻的评价值具有直接的可比性。
(6)为了对灌区节水改造项目完成后连续多年的整体情况进行评价,采用“时序加权平均算子”方法进行动态评价。该方法引入了“时间权向量熵”和“时间度”理论,借助“时间权向量熵”I使得尽可能兼顾各年的重要性,而借助“时间度”λ来体现对时序的重视情况；在以上理论基础上建立优化模型,求解该优化模型从而确定出各年时间权向量,根据时间权向量值及各年的综合评价值可以计算得连续多年的动态综合评价值。通过对关中九大灌区2002-2005年连续4年进行动态综合评价计算,发现“时序加权平均算子”方法计算所得结果考虑了时间动态因素影响,比静态的计算结果更全面、科学、合理。
(7)针对灌区的非线性特征,采用生态足迹方法通过计算灌区节水改造项目实施前后生态赤字(或生态盈余)的变化对灌区节水改造项目进行了综合评价,分析了节水改造项目的实施对灌区生态变化的影响。
the author consulted lots of reference home and abroad, combining with the practical situation of nine large-scale irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project in shaanxi GuanZhong area, by the technique route of linking theory with instances analysis,indexe weights' determination and comprehensive method of water-saving and improvement project's post-evaluation in large-scale irrigatin districts were studied, main achievements are as follows:
(1) Aiming to the defects of common subjective weighting method and objective weighting method, the combination weighting method combining subjective and objective factor was applied to post-evaluation of irrigation districts'water-saving and improvement project, the application of three diffrent kinds of combination weighting method were comparatively studied, they are combination weighting method basing on units of constraints and combination weighting method basing on game theory and combination weighting method basing on sum of deviation square, the result show, weight vector's sort sizes getted by using three kinds of combination weighting method are not same,sort size of several irrigation districts' comprehensive evaluation values calculated by using three kinds of weight value are not same, this is caused by different principles of three kinds of combination weighting method, in practice using, different combination weighting method could be selected according to actual needs.
(2) Further study on evaluation method was made basing on the present evaluation methods, two kinds of evaluating ideas including static and dynamic method were put forward, hierarchical comprehensive evaluation method basing scatter-degree is selected in static method, vertical scatter-degree method and vertical and horizontal scatter-degree method and timing operator weighted average method are selected in dynamic method.
(3) Hierarchical comprehensive evaluation method basing on scatter-degree was applied to evaluation on irrigation districts' water saving and improvement project aiming to the defect that several irrigation districts' evaluation value are close or same and difficult to be distinguished when using common static evaluating method, index's weights were determined twice during calculation process, through which, indexes'combination weights were determined scientificly and reasonably, evaluation value is easy to be distinguished too. application result show, not only several irrigation districts' water saving and improvement project could be generally evaluated and distinguished, but also each level goal of different irrigation district water saving and improvement project could be getted and distinguished, thus multi-irrigation districts could be evaluated comprehensivly, systematically and detailedly.
(4) In order to dynamically evaluate one irrigation district's water-saving and improvement project during several years, vertical scatter degree method were applied to irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project's evaluation, taking jinghuiqu irrigation district's project during 2002 to 2005 for example, the result show that vertical scatter degree method could dynamically evaluate and distinguish one irrigation district's each year's water-saving and improvement project during several consecutive years, the calculation effort is small, has better application value.
(5) In order to dynamically evaluate and distinguish several irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement projects on vertical and horizontal direction during consecutive years, vertical and horizontal scatter degree method was applied to irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project's evaluation, take guanzhong nine irrigation districts' ecological environmental benefits evaluation for example, the result show that every year's evaluation result of several irrigation districts could be directly compared and evaluation results degree be scattered by using this method.not only the calculation effort is decreased but also irrigation district's different time's evaluation value could be compared directly by using vertical and horizontal scatter degree method.
(6) In order to generally evaluate irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project during consecutive years, dynamically evaluation was conducted by using "timing weighted average operator" method, this method is the introduction of "time weight vector entropy" and "time-degree" theory, the importance of each year was taken into account as much as possible by virtue of "time weight vector entropy", and the importance of timing was reflected by virtue of "time degree"λ, the optimization model was established basing on above theory, solving the optimization model could get each year's weight, consecutive years dynamic comprehensive evaluation value could be getted basing time weight vector value and annual comprehensive evaluation value. through nine irrigations'water-saving and improvement project's calculation result during four consective years from 2002 to 2005, then find that time factor have been taken into account and the results getted by using timing weighted average operator is more comprehensive, scientific and reasonable than the static results.
(7) Aimin to the non-linear character of irrigation districts, the ecological footprints method were applied to evaluation on irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project, water-saving and improvement project was evaluatd by calculating the change of ecological-deficit pre and post project's implementation, the impact on irrigation districts' ecological caused by water-saving and improvement projects was analyzed.
(1)针对目前灌区评价指标权重确定中常用的主观赋权法和客观赋权法各自存在的缺陷,将综合主、客观影响因素的综合集成赋权法引入灌区节水改造项目综合评价,并对三种主要的、不同原理的综合集成赋权法在大型灌区节水改造项目综合评价中的应用情况进行了对比研究,这三种综合集成赋权法分别为：基于单位化约束条件的综合集成赋权法、基于博弈论的综合集成赋权法、基于离差平方和的综合集成赋权法；应用结果表明,由于3种综合集成赋权法的数学原理不同,根据3种综合集成赋权法得到的权重结果以及多个灌区综合评价值大小排序结果并不一致,在实际应用中,可根据实际需要选择相应的综合权重确定方法。
(2)在分析目前已有的评价方法的基础上,对灌区节水改造项目综合后评价方法做了深入研究,提出了静态评价和动态评价2种思路,静态评价方法选用“拉开档次的递阶综合评价方法”,动态评价方法选用“纵向拉开档次法”、“纵横向拉开档次法”和“时序加权平均算子”方法。
(3)在静态评价方面,针对目前常见的静态评价方法在对多个灌区进行评价时容易出现评价结果接近或一致而难以区分的缺陷,应用“拉开档次的递阶综合评价方法”对灌区节水改造项目进行静态评价。该方法在计算过程中通过两次不同原理的赋权既保证了指标权重取值的科学合理性,还保证了评价结果的易于区分性；不仅可以对多个灌区节水改造项目总体优劣情况进行区分评价,也可以对不同灌区节水改造项目各分层目标的优劣情况进行区分评价,从而可以对多个灌区的节水改造项目进行全面、系统、详细的评价。
(4)为了对某一个灌区在多年的节水改造情况进行动态评价,运用“纵向拉开档次法”以陕西省泾惠渠灌区2002年～2005年各年的节水改造项目综合评价为例进行了动态评价研究,应用结果表明,“纵向拉开档次法”可以对单个灌区连续多年各年的节水改造项目进行有效的动态区分评价,且计算量较少,有较好的实际应用价值。
(5)为了对多个灌区在多年内的节水改造项目进行纵向(时间维)和横向(灌区之间)的动态区分评价,运用“纵横向拉开档次法”对关中九大灌区节水改造项目生态环境效益进行了动态评价。应用结果表明,“纵横向拉开档次法”可以同时对多个灌区在不同年份的节水改造项目实施情况进行评价,且在不影响大小排序的情况下,可以使评价结果充分拉开档次,这样不仅大大减少了动态评价的计算量,而且使得各评价对象在各时刻的评价值具有直接的可比性。
(6)为了对灌区节水改造项目完成后连续多年的整体情况进行评价,采用“时序加权平均算子”方法进行动态评价。该方法引入了“时间权向量熵”和“时间度”理论,借助“时间权向量熵”I使得尽可能兼顾各年的重要性,而借助“时间度”λ来体现对时序的重视情况；在以上理论基础上建立优化模型,求解该优化模型从而确定出各年时间权向量,根据时间权向量值及各年的综合评价值可以计算得连续多年的动态综合评价值。通过对关中九大灌区2002-2005年连续4年进行动态综合评价计算,发现“时序加权平均算子”方法计算所得结果考虑了时间动态因素影响,比静态的计算结果更全面、科学、合理。
(7)针对灌区的非线性特征,采用生态足迹方法通过计算灌区节水改造项目实施前后生态赤字(或生态盈余)的变化对灌区节水改造项目进行了综合评价,分析了节水改造项目的实施对灌区生态变化的影响。
the author consulted lots of reference home and abroad, combining with the practical situation of nine large-scale irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project in shaanxi GuanZhong area, by the technique route of linking theory with instances analysis,indexe weights' determination and comprehensive method of water-saving and improvement project's post-evaluation in large-scale irrigatin districts were studied, main achievements are as follows:
(1) Aiming to the defects of common subjective weighting method and objective weighting method, the combination weighting method combining subjective and objective factor was applied to post-evaluation of irrigation districts'water-saving and improvement project, the application of three diffrent kinds of combination weighting method were comparatively studied, they are combination weighting method basing on units of constraints and combination weighting method basing on game theory and combination weighting method basing on sum of deviation square, the result show, weight vector's sort sizes getted by using three kinds of combination weighting method are not same,sort size of several irrigation districts' comprehensive evaluation values calculated by using three kinds of weight value are not same, this is caused by different principles of three kinds of combination weighting method, in practice using, different combination weighting method could be selected according to actual needs.
(2) Further study on evaluation method was made basing on the present evaluation methods, two kinds of evaluating ideas including static and dynamic method were put forward, hierarchical comprehensive evaluation method basing scatter-degree is selected in static method, vertical scatter-degree method and vertical and horizontal scatter-degree method and timing operator weighted average method are selected in dynamic method.
(3) Hierarchical comprehensive evaluation method basing on scatter-degree was applied to evaluation on irrigation districts' water saving and improvement project aiming to the defect that several irrigation districts' evaluation value are close or same and difficult to be distinguished when using common static evaluating method, index's weights were determined twice during calculation process, through which, indexes'combination weights were determined scientificly and reasonably, evaluation value is easy to be distinguished too. application result show, not only several irrigation districts' water saving and improvement project could be generally evaluated and distinguished, but also each level goal of different irrigation district water saving and improvement project could be getted and distinguished, thus multi-irrigation districts could be evaluated comprehensivly, systematically and detailedly.
(4) In order to dynamically evaluate one irrigation district's water-saving and improvement project during several years, vertical scatter degree method were applied to irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project's evaluation, taking jinghuiqu irrigation district's project during 2002 to 2005 for example, the result show that vertical scatter degree method could dynamically evaluate and distinguish one irrigation district's each year's water-saving and improvement project during several consecutive years, the calculation effort is small, has better application value.
(5) In order to dynamically evaluate and distinguish several irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement projects on vertical and horizontal direction during consecutive years, vertical and horizontal scatter degree method was applied to irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project's evaluation, take guanzhong nine irrigation districts' ecological environmental benefits evaluation for example, the result show that every year's evaluation result of several irrigation districts could be directly compared and evaluation results degree be scattered by using this method.not only the calculation effort is decreased but also irrigation district's different time's evaluation value could be compared directly by using vertical and horizontal scatter degree method.
(6) In order to generally evaluate irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project during consecutive years, dynamically evaluation was conducted by using "timing weighted average operator" method, this method is the introduction of "time weight vector entropy" and "time-degree" theory, the importance of each year was taken into account as much as possible by virtue of "time weight vector entropy", and the importance of timing was reflected by virtue of "time degree"λ, the optimization model was established basing on above theory, solving the optimization model could get each year's weight, consecutive years dynamic comprehensive evaluation value could be getted basing time weight vector value and annual comprehensive evaluation value. through nine irrigations'water-saving and improvement project's calculation result during four consective years from 2002 to 2005, then find that time factor have been taken into account and the results getted by using timing weighted average operator is more comprehensive, scientific and reasonable than the static results.
(7) Aimin to the non-linear character of irrigation districts, the ecological footprints method were applied to evaluation on irrigation districts' water-saving and improvement project, water-saving and improvement project was evaluatd by calculating the change of ecological-deficit pre and post project's implementation, the impact on irrigation districts' ecological caused by water-saving and improvement projects was analyzed.
引文
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