降雨环境下交通因素辨析与驾驶可靠性评价建模
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摘要
汽车与交通运输产业的发展,在推动社会经济进步的同时,伴之而来的交通事故对社会公共安全构成严重威胁。鉴于严峻的交通安全形势,分析研究交通事故特点,抑制交通事故高发,降低道路交通事故危害程度是一项重要而紧迫的研究工作。影响交通安全的因素是多方面的,如人、车、路、环境及交通管理水平等。目前,国内外对交通事故的研究多注重人、车、路中的某一种或某几种因素,而对环境协调性因素研究甚少,甚至忽视环境因素在交通安全中的重要作用。例如,道路因素为安全行车提供保证,就本身的特征而言是相对静态的,但由于受气候条件等外部环境因素的影响,使其在不断变化的交通运行环境中成为动态因素,增加了研究的复杂性。
影响道路交通安全的灾害性气候主要有风、雨、雾、冰雪和高、低温等,随着路网的逐步完善和不良气候条件的逐渐增多,发生在不良气候条件下的交通事故正在不断增加。统计数据显示,我国公路交通事故中有50%是发生在不良气候条件下,而71%的重特大交通事故和65%的直接经济损失也是发生在不良气候环境下,加强不良气候条件下交通安全事故预防研究已刻不容缓。
随着交通安全研究领域的拓宽,需要深入开展不良气候条件下交通事故致因机理关键技术的研究工作。在诸多不良气候条件中,降雨因其具有常见性、突发性、局部性,极易导致驾驶员对车辆周围多目标观察产生错觉,对车辆性能、道路性能亦具有重要影响。因此,本文对降雨环境下交通因素进行辨析,着重研究驾驶可靠性建模技术,并提出交通事故预防体系与具体措施。上述研究工作对有效降低降雨这一不良气候条件下道路交通事故的发生具有深刻的现实意义,对相关研究工作可起到抛砖引玉的作用。
首先,对道路交通系统的组成、系统安全性分析方法、事故分析指标等进行了阐述与比较；通过事故案例分析,对降雨环境下交通事故进行了分类研究；在此基础上,对交通系统各主要因素在降雨环境下所发生的变化及安全机理进行深入分析,并运用灰色系统理论对各因素在不良气候条件下(降雨)对驾驶可靠性产生的影响及贡献程度进行定量分析,得出相关结论。
然后,详细阐述了主成分分析方法的计算、样本处理及主成分选择,并用于辨析降雨环境下驾驶可靠性影响因素。确定视觉、知觉反应能力、环境感知能力、注意力集中程度、焦躁情绪等5个参数作为驾驶员可靠性因素的技术指标；车辆速度、车辆制动强度、转向盘转角、加速度等4个参数作为车辆可靠性因素的技术指标；摩擦系数、平整度、道路排水性、水膜厚度、道路线形等5个参数作为道路可靠性因素技术指标。在分析降雨环境下各项技术指标特征的基础上,通过实验量化部分重点技术指标。按照驾驶员可靠性因素,车辆可靠性因素和道路可靠性因素分别通过调查获得原始数据,利用统计处理得到样本数据,采用主成分分析方法对其进行计算,将多个线性相关的指标转化为少数线性无关的综合指标变量,确定出对降雨环境下驾驶可靠性贡献率大且累积贡献率符合研究要求的7个指标,作为降雨环境下驾驶可靠性评价模型研究的基础。
在驾驶可靠性评价建模过程中,以降雨环境下交通系统的驾驶可靠性作为研究对象,在论述系统可靠性基本概念、研究内容、可靠性指标、典型可靠性模型等相关系统可靠性理论的基础上,从系统内在关系出发,通过研究传统可靠性分析方法与复杂道路交通条件下系统可靠性研究前提、方法、内容的不同,有针对性地提出了降雨环境下驾驶可靠性评价模型,并详细阐述了该模型的建立过程与计算步骤。为进一步探索该方法的应用价值,典型道路被选择进行实例研究(含对比试验),应用相关测量设备对主要研究指标进行数据采集、分析,运用多种方法对现实交通系统进行可靠性评价,为建立基于可靠性评价的不良气候条件下交通运输系统安全预警理论体系提供了一套切实可行的研究方案。
最后,运用故障树分析理论构建降雨环境下交通安全事故预防体系。在详细阐述故障树分析相关理论的基础上,确定“降雨环境下车辆运行过程中发生事故”为顶事件,逐层展开,利用推理法找出发生交通事故的原因及影响,直至基本事件,建立了降雨环境下交通安全系统故障树。在借鉴相关学科理论基础上,构建了降雨环境下道路交通事故预防层次结构模型,为科学、系统地研究不良气候条件下交通安全预防措施指明了方向。针对降雨这一特定气候条件,从驾驶员行为策略、车辆运行模式、道路设计与设施规划完备等几个方面分析了具体的安全改善措施。
通过对降雨环境下道路交通事故致因因素的剖析,在继承国内外学者的研究成果的基础上结合实际案例的具体情况,选择了一个合适的研究工作切入点,在一定程度上为本领域的科研工作提供了新的研究思路和研究手段。在通过大量深入细致的实地调研、运用先进的仪器设备获取翔实第一手研究资料的基础上,制定灵活实用的研究方案,融合或者组合运用多种理论知识对研究对象进行深入分析研究。力求全面探索不良气候条件下(降雨)道路交通系统的内在规律,丰富道路交通安全理论研究与实践的途径,为道路交通运输系统持续健康发展提供切实可行的安全保障。
研究成果如下：
运用灰关联技术定量研究了驾驶员因素、车辆因素、道路因素间的相对重要程度,对确定三者间的权重具有重要意义；
通过大量文献资料、实地调研、观察试验等手段获取多项对降雨环境下驾驶可靠性具有显著影响的因素,提出了相应的评价指标,为研究工作奠定了基础；
应用主成分分析理论辨析降雨环境下多种驾驶可靠性影响因素,将多个线性相关的指标转化为少数线性无关的综合指标变量,确定出对降雨环境下驾驶可靠性贡献率大且累积贡献率符合研究要求的指标；
建立降雨环境下驾驶可靠性评价模型,将定性分析转变为定量评估,为该领域的研究工作提出了一条切实可行的途径；
基于故障树分析技术,建立降雨环境下道路交通事故预防层次结构模型,对全面研究降雨环境下的道路交通安全措施具有重要的现实意义。
通过系统性、理论性、实践性相结合的方式,进行降雨环境下道路交通安全领域中交通因素辨析、驾驶可靠性建模和事故预防的理论、方法与实施技术手段等方面的研究,为不良气候条件下道路交通安全研究体系形成及开展深入研究提供了一种新思路和新方法。
Development of industry of the automobile and transportation, propels the social economy forward, meanwhile, causes traffic accidents to occur which seriously imperils social public security. Because of the serious traffic safety situation, it is important and urgent researches to analyze characteristics of the traffic accidents, control the frequency of the traffic accidents, and decrease the damage of the road traffic accidents. Factors that affect the traffic safety are various, for example, human, vehicle, road, environment and traffic management level and so on. Up to now, domestic and foreign researches on traffic accidents pay more attention to merely one or several factors, while less attention to the environmental harmony, even neglect the important role that the environmental factors play in. For instance, road factors provide guarantee for safe driving and its feature is relatively static, but because of the influence of the climate and exterior environment factors, makes it turn into a dynamic factor in the constant traffic environment. As a result, increase the complexity of the traffic research.
Disastrous weather that affects the road traffic safety primarily has the wind, rain, fog, snow and high or low temperature and so on. Because that the road network has improved step by step and the bad weather conditions grow gradually, the traffic accidents caused by bad weather are increasing. Statistics show that there are fifty percent of the road traffic accidents, seventy one percent of the sever accidents and sixty five percent of the direct economical loses have been caused owing to the bad weather. So researches about the traffic accidents prevention in bad weather conditions are urgently needed.
With the diversification of research field on the traffic safety, research about key technology of traffic accidents causation mechanism in bad weather conditions need to be deeply develop, The raining in many bad weathers conditions not only easily causes optical illusion of drivers about objects around the vehicles because that it has some characteristics of common, unexpected and localized, but also has important influence on vehicle and road performance, so the dissertation analyses traffic factors in raining environment, puts emphasis on modeling technology of driving reliability and presents prevention system and concrete improved measures. The researches will have high application value for effective decreasing traffic accidents occurred in bad weather and can play an important role in other relevant researches.
Firstly, the dissertation elaborates and compares on the composition of the traffic system, approaches of system security analysis and analysis indicators of accidents, makes a classification about the traffic accidents in rainy days by the accident case studies. On this basis, it deeply analyzes the changes of the main factors of traffic system in raining environment and safety mechanism, and uses grey system theory to do a quantitative analysis about how factors in bad weather can influence the driving reliability and its contribution to the effect, and finally draws an appropriate conclusion.
Then it elaborates the Principal Component Analysis method about calculating, sample processing and selection method of principal ingredients of sample in the details, and uses the method to analyze the factors that affect the driving reliability. The dissertation makes sure that five parameters that are the vision, consciousness, the ability of responding to the environment, concentration level and impatient as the driver reliability indicators, four parameters that are speed of the vehicle, the vehicle's braking intensity, the steering wheel's corner and acceleration as the vehicle reliability indicators, five parameters that are friction coefficient, flatness, drainage, water film thickness and the road alignment as the road reliability indicators. On the base of analyzing the characteristic of the various technology indicators in the rainfall environment, part of the key technology indicators are quantified by experiments. According to reliability factors of the driver, the vehicle and the road, the original data are obtained by investigation, then the sample data are gotten by the statistical analysis; and Principal Component Analysis method is adopted to calculate the data, which transforms many linear dependence indicators into few integrated indicators with linear independent, consequently finds the seven indicators with high contribution rate to driving reliability in raining environment and accumulated contribution rate of meeting requirement,.which is basis of driving reliability evaluation model.
In the process of the diving reliability modeling, the dissertation adopts driving reliability of traffic system in the rainfall environment as research objective, on the basis of basic reliability concept, content of the researches, reliability indicators, the typical model of reliability, presents driving reliability evaluation model and elaborates modeling and calculation process in detail by analyzing intrinsic relationship, and researching reliability analysis methods and difference on research precondition, methods, content of system reliability in complex road condition. In order to explore applied value of the methods, typical roads are chosen to carry out the research (containing comparison experiments) measurement devices are used to collect data and analyze aiming to main indicator, multifarious methods are adopted to evaluate reliability of real transportation system, which provides practical scheme for establishing the early warning theoretical system of transportation system safety in bad weather based on reliability evaluation.
Finally, Failure Tree Analysis Theory is adopted to establish the prevention system of traffic accidents in rainfall environment. On the basis of elaborating the relevant theory of Failure Tree analysis, the accidents occurred in running process of rainfall environment are ensured as the top event, by utilizing the inference method to find out the reasons and effects of the accidents occurrence, till the basic events, consequently failure tree of traffic safety system in rainfall environment is established. By referring to related disciplines theories, hierarchy structure model of road traffic accidents prevention in rainfall environment is established, which point out the way forward for scientifically systematically researching traffic safety measure in bad weather condition. Aiming to rainfall, specific safety measure are analyzed from several facets that is the driver's behavior tactics, the vehicle' running behavior pattern, the road deign and the plan completion respectively.
The dissertation through a deeply understanding and analyzing on the road traffic causing factors in rainfall environment inheriting the domestic and foreign advance study, on this base combines the specific circumstance of the practical cases, and chooses a suitable job breakthrough and in certain extent provides a new idea and method for the research work in the scientific field. On the base of deeply and careful study work, and the use of advanced equipment to get the first hand information of research, it formulates a research scheme of flexibility or combing with a variety of theoretical knowledge to make a detailed study on the subject. It intends to do a all-round exploration about the interior regular of the road traffic system in bad weather conditions, enriches the ways of the road traffic safety theory and practice, provides a practical security guarantee for a continues healthy development of the road transportation system.
The innovative research results are as followings:
(1) Using grey relative technology to analyze the importance degree between driver, vehicle and road factors, it is of great significance to establish the weight between them.
(2) Through a large amount of literature, field study, and survey means to obtain the factors which have a remarkable influence on the driver reliability in the rainfall environment, propose appropriate evaluation indicators and establish basis for the research work.
(3) Applying the principal component analysis method to argue about the drive reliability in rainfall conditions, transforms many linear dependence indicators into few representational linearly independent indicator, find the indicators with high contribution rate to driving reliability in raining environment and accumulated contribution rate of meeting requirement.
(4) Putting forward to a practical way for the study in this area by proposing the evaluation model for drive reliability in the rainfall environment and turning qualitative analysis to quantitative study.
(5) On the base of the failure tree analysis, it proposes the hierarchical structure model of road traffic accidents prevention in the rainfall conditions, which is a great significant for the comprehensive study about the traffic safety measures in rainfall environment.
In conclusion, a new idea and method is provided for the formation of the road traffic safety theory and further study by the way that integrates systematization, theoretical definition and practice, and carrying out the study about the analysis of traffic factors in the field of road traffic safety, driving reliability modeling, and theory, method, and practical technology of accident prevention.
影响道路交通安全的灾害性气候主要有风、雨、雾、冰雪和高、低温等,随着路网的逐步完善和不良气候条件的逐渐增多,发生在不良气候条件下的交通事故正在不断增加。统计数据显示,我国公路交通事故中有50%是发生在不良气候条件下,而71%的重特大交通事故和65%的直接经济损失也是发生在不良气候环境下,加强不良气候条件下交通安全事故预防研究已刻不容缓。
随着交通安全研究领域的拓宽,需要深入开展不良气候条件下交通事故致因机理关键技术的研究工作。在诸多不良气候条件中,降雨因其具有常见性、突发性、局部性,极易导致驾驶员对车辆周围多目标观察产生错觉,对车辆性能、道路性能亦具有重要影响。因此,本文对降雨环境下交通因素进行辨析,着重研究驾驶可靠性建模技术,并提出交通事故预防体系与具体措施。上述研究工作对有效降低降雨这一不良气候条件下道路交通事故的发生具有深刻的现实意义,对相关研究工作可起到抛砖引玉的作用。
首先,对道路交通系统的组成、系统安全性分析方法、事故分析指标等进行了阐述与比较；通过事故案例分析,对降雨环境下交通事故进行了分类研究；在此基础上,对交通系统各主要因素在降雨环境下所发生的变化及安全机理进行深入分析,并运用灰色系统理论对各因素在不良气候条件下(降雨)对驾驶可靠性产生的影响及贡献程度进行定量分析,得出相关结论。
然后,详细阐述了主成分分析方法的计算、样本处理及主成分选择,并用于辨析降雨环境下驾驶可靠性影响因素。确定视觉、知觉反应能力、环境感知能力、注意力集中程度、焦躁情绪等5个参数作为驾驶员可靠性因素的技术指标；车辆速度、车辆制动强度、转向盘转角、加速度等4个参数作为车辆可靠性因素的技术指标；摩擦系数、平整度、道路排水性、水膜厚度、道路线形等5个参数作为道路可靠性因素技术指标。在分析降雨环境下各项技术指标特征的基础上,通过实验量化部分重点技术指标。按照驾驶员可靠性因素,车辆可靠性因素和道路可靠性因素分别通过调查获得原始数据,利用统计处理得到样本数据,采用主成分分析方法对其进行计算,将多个线性相关的指标转化为少数线性无关的综合指标变量,确定出对降雨环境下驾驶可靠性贡献率大且累积贡献率符合研究要求的7个指标,作为降雨环境下驾驶可靠性评价模型研究的基础。
在驾驶可靠性评价建模过程中,以降雨环境下交通系统的驾驶可靠性作为研究对象,在论述系统可靠性基本概念、研究内容、可靠性指标、典型可靠性模型等相关系统可靠性理论的基础上,从系统内在关系出发,通过研究传统可靠性分析方法与复杂道路交通条件下系统可靠性研究前提、方法、内容的不同,有针对性地提出了降雨环境下驾驶可靠性评价模型,并详细阐述了该模型的建立过程与计算步骤。为进一步探索该方法的应用价值,典型道路被选择进行实例研究(含对比试验),应用相关测量设备对主要研究指标进行数据采集、分析,运用多种方法对现实交通系统进行可靠性评价,为建立基于可靠性评价的不良气候条件下交通运输系统安全预警理论体系提供了一套切实可行的研究方案。
最后,运用故障树分析理论构建降雨环境下交通安全事故预防体系。在详细阐述故障树分析相关理论的基础上,确定“降雨环境下车辆运行过程中发生事故”为顶事件,逐层展开,利用推理法找出发生交通事故的原因及影响,直至基本事件,建立了降雨环境下交通安全系统故障树。在借鉴相关学科理论基础上,构建了降雨环境下道路交通事故预防层次结构模型,为科学、系统地研究不良气候条件下交通安全预防措施指明了方向。针对降雨这一特定气候条件,从驾驶员行为策略、车辆运行模式、道路设计与设施规划完备等几个方面分析了具体的安全改善措施。
通过对降雨环境下道路交通事故致因因素的剖析,在继承国内外学者的研究成果的基础上结合实际案例的具体情况,选择了一个合适的研究工作切入点,在一定程度上为本领域的科研工作提供了新的研究思路和研究手段。在通过大量深入细致的实地调研、运用先进的仪器设备获取翔实第一手研究资料的基础上,制定灵活实用的研究方案,融合或者组合运用多种理论知识对研究对象进行深入分析研究。力求全面探索不良气候条件下(降雨)道路交通系统的内在规律,丰富道路交通安全理论研究与实践的途径,为道路交通运输系统持续健康发展提供切实可行的安全保障。
研究成果如下：
运用灰关联技术定量研究了驾驶员因素、车辆因素、道路因素间的相对重要程度,对确定三者间的权重具有重要意义；
通过大量文献资料、实地调研、观察试验等手段获取多项对降雨环境下驾驶可靠性具有显著影响的因素,提出了相应的评价指标,为研究工作奠定了基础；
应用主成分分析理论辨析降雨环境下多种驾驶可靠性影响因素,将多个线性相关的指标转化为少数线性无关的综合指标变量,确定出对降雨环境下驾驶可靠性贡献率大且累积贡献率符合研究要求的指标；
建立降雨环境下驾驶可靠性评价模型,将定性分析转变为定量评估,为该领域的研究工作提出了一条切实可行的途径；
基于故障树分析技术,建立降雨环境下道路交通事故预防层次结构模型,对全面研究降雨环境下的道路交通安全措施具有重要的现实意义。
通过系统性、理论性、实践性相结合的方式,进行降雨环境下道路交通安全领域中交通因素辨析、驾驶可靠性建模和事故预防的理论、方法与实施技术手段等方面的研究,为不良气候条件下道路交通安全研究体系形成及开展深入研究提供了一种新思路和新方法。
Development of industry of the automobile and transportation, propels the social economy forward, meanwhile, causes traffic accidents to occur which seriously imperils social public security. Because of the serious traffic safety situation, it is important and urgent researches to analyze characteristics of the traffic accidents, control the frequency of the traffic accidents, and decrease the damage of the road traffic accidents. Factors that affect the traffic safety are various, for example, human, vehicle, road, environment and traffic management level and so on. Up to now, domestic and foreign researches on traffic accidents pay more attention to merely one or several factors, while less attention to the environmental harmony, even neglect the important role that the environmental factors play in. For instance, road factors provide guarantee for safe driving and its feature is relatively static, but because of the influence of the climate and exterior environment factors, makes it turn into a dynamic factor in the constant traffic environment. As a result, increase the complexity of the traffic research.
Disastrous weather that affects the road traffic safety primarily has the wind, rain, fog, snow and high or low temperature and so on. Because that the road network has improved step by step and the bad weather conditions grow gradually, the traffic accidents caused by bad weather are increasing. Statistics show that there are fifty percent of the road traffic accidents, seventy one percent of the sever accidents and sixty five percent of the direct economical loses have been caused owing to the bad weather. So researches about the traffic accidents prevention in bad weather conditions are urgently needed.
With the diversification of research field on the traffic safety, research about key technology of traffic accidents causation mechanism in bad weather conditions need to be deeply develop, The raining in many bad weathers conditions not only easily causes optical illusion of drivers about objects around the vehicles because that it has some characteristics of common, unexpected and localized, but also has important influence on vehicle and road performance, so the dissertation analyses traffic factors in raining environment, puts emphasis on modeling technology of driving reliability and presents prevention system and concrete improved measures. The researches will have high application value for effective decreasing traffic accidents occurred in bad weather and can play an important role in other relevant researches.
Firstly, the dissertation elaborates and compares on the composition of the traffic system, approaches of system security analysis and analysis indicators of accidents, makes a classification about the traffic accidents in rainy days by the accident case studies. On this basis, it deeply analyzes the changes of the main factors of traffic system in raining environment and safety mechanism, and uses grey system theory to do a quantitative analysis about how factors in bad weather can influence the driving reliability and its contribution to the effect, and finally draws an appropriate conclusion.
Then it elaborates the Principal Component Analysis method about calculating, sample processing and selection method of principal ingredients of sample in the details, and uses the method to analyze the factors that affect the driving reliability. The dissertation makes sure that five parameters that are the vision, consciousness, the ability of responding to the environment, concentration level and impatient as the driver reliability indicators, four parameters that are speed of the vehicle, the vehicle's braking intensity, the steering wheel's corner and acceleration as the vehicle reliability indicators, five parameters that are friction coefficient, flatness, drainage, water film thickness and the road alignment as the road reliability indicators. On the base of analyzing the characteristic of the various technology indicators in the rainfall environment, part of the key technology indicators are quantified by experiments. According to reliability factors of the driver, the vehicle and the road, the original data are obtained by investigation, then the sample data are gotten by the statistical analysis; and Principal Component Analysis method is adopted to calculate the data, which transforms many linear dependence indicators into few integrated indicators with linear independent, consequently finds the seven indicators with high contribution rate to driving reliability in raining environment and accumulated contribution rate of meeting requirement,.which is basis of driving reliability evaluation model.
In the process of the diving reliability modeling, the dissertation adopts driving reliability of traffic system in the rainfall environment as research objective, on the basis of basic reliability concept, content of the researches, reliability indicators, the typical model of reliability, presents driving reliability evaluation model and elaborates modeling and calculation process in detail by analyzing intrinsic relationship, and researching reliability analysis methods and difference on research precondition, methods, content of system reliability in complex road condition. In order to explore applied value of the methods, typical roads are chosen to carry out the research (containing comparison experiments) measurement devices are used to collect data and analyze aiming to main indicator, multifarious methods are adopted to evaluate reliability of real transportation system, which provides practical scheme for establishing the early warning theoretical system of transportation system safety in bad weather based on reliability evaluation.
Finally, Failure Tree Analysis Theory is adopted to establish the prevention system of traffic accidents in rainfall environment. On the basis of elaborating the relevant theory of Failure Tree analysis, the accidents occurred in running process of rainfall environment are ensured as the top event, by utilizing the inference method to find out the reasons and effects of the accidents occurrence, till the basic events, consequently failure tree of traffic safety system in rainfall environment is established. By referring to related disciplines theories, hierarchy structure model of road traffic accidents prevention in rainfall environment is established, which point out the way forward for scientifically systematically researching traffic safety measure in bad weather condition. Aiming to rainfall, specific safety measure are analyzed from several facets that is the driver's behavior tactics, the vehicle' running behavior pattern, the road deign and the plan completion respectively.
The dissertation through a deeply understanding and analyzing on the road traffic causing factors in rainfall environment inheriting the domestic and foreign advance study, on this base combines the specific circumstance of the practical cases, and chooses a suitable job breakthrough and in certain extent provides a new idea and method for the research work in the scientific field. On the base of deeply and careful study work, and the use of advanced equipment to get the first hand information of research, it formulates a research scheme of flexibility or combing with a variety of theoretical knowledge to make a detailed study on the subject. It intends to do a all-round exploration about the interior regular of the road traffic system in bad weather conditions, enriches the ways of the road traffic safety theory and practice, provides a practical security guarantee for a continues healthy development of the road transportation system.
The innovative research results are as followings:
(1) Using grey relative technology to analyze the importance degree between driver, vehicle and road factors, it is of great significance to establish the weight between them.
(2) Through a large amount of literature, field study, and survey means to obtain the factors which have a remarkable influence on the driver reliability in the rainfall environment, propose appropriate evaluation indicators and establish basis for the research work.
(3) Applying the principal component analysis method to argue about the drive reliability in rainfall conditions, transforms many linear dependence indicators into few representational linearly independent indicator, find the indicators with high contribution rate to driving reliability in raining environment and accumulated contribution rate of meeting requirement.
(4) Putting forward to a practical way for the study in this area by proposing the evaluation model for drive reliability in the rainfall environment and turning qualitative analysis to quantitative study.
(5) On the base of the failure tree analysis, it proposes the hierarchical structure model of road traffic accidents prevention in the rainfall conditions, which is a great significant for the comprehensive study about the traffic safety measures in rainfall environment.
In conclusion, a new idea and method is provided for the formation of the road traffic safety theory and further study by the way that integrates systematization, theoretical definition and practice, and carrying out the study about the analysis of traffic factors in the field of road traffic safety, driving reliability modeling, and theory, method, and practical technology of accident prevention.
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