人船系统平稳状态的失效机理及控制模式研究
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摘要
船舶数量的增多、吨位的增大及航速的提高对海上交通安全提出了更高的要求,有待于对事故的发生机理和控制模式作进一步研究。论文以安全系统工程学的逻辑思维,从人、船及环境影响的角度对船舶航行的平稳状态失效机理及其控制模式作了系统研究,同时基于理论成果研发了船舶安全评估与管理信息系统。为预防和减少海上交通事故提供理论依据和实践保障。
论文在统计分析船舶安全事故的基础上,对碰撞事故致因源进行相关度分析,追溯了船舶操纵人因失效的根原因,建立了远洋船员机体功能Markov状态链,并进行了仿真:把神经元工程化对人的行为过程失效进行分析,建立了时变行为可靠度的计算模型,提出了船员适航度概念及计算模型,对适航度的更新模式和维护方式进行了分析,并建立了基于电路原理的适航度维护模型,对船员的适航性响应输出进行了仿真。
从人船协调控制角度,利用AHP法对船舶人机功能合理分配进行评价,对大洋航行、近海域航行和港口区航行的安全控制模式进行研究;在人船平稳状态的控制特性中,根据人的传递函数数学模型、船舶控制的传递函数数学模型,建立了人船一体化的闭环控制数学模型,并对其输出状态进行了仿真分析。为了进一步分析人的行为输出过程,利用最小二次型法对其仿真分析。
针对设备状态对船舶操纵性能的重要影响,论文在统计分析了船舶设备故障的基础上,利用状态空间耦合理论对船舶人机系统故障转移概率进行了计算;基于可靠性和经济性,建立了设备备件和设备维修的优化模型,并进行了实例验证。
最后,根据船舶运动数学模型,利用龙格一库塔积分法,仿真了复杂环境下的船舶回转性和横摇角度变化,可为船舶操纵安全提供依据。定义了船舶安全熵的概念和评价数学模型;利用当前信息技术,从船员、船舶、环境及管理四个信息源,建立船舶动态航行安全管理信息系统,以便船舶操纵者和航运管理者采取相关措施,减少人船平稳状态的失效概率。
As ships quantity increasing, tonnage enlarging and the speed enhancing, there is a higher request for the marine traffic safety, and we must do further studies for accident's occurrence mechanisms and the control mode. The paper has done the systemic research to failure mechanisms and the control mode of the ships navigation's stable condition with safety system engineering logical thinking and the angle of person, ship and environmental effect. The ships security evaluation and the management information system has been made on the base of the theory achievement, all the work done in this paper provided the theory basis and the practice safeguard to prevent and reduce the marine traffic accident.
With the statistical analysis of ship safety accidents ,this paper carries on the analysis on degree of correlation of the collision accident disaster-causing , has traced the root causes of the human failure in the ship maneuvering and has established organism function Markov condition chain of ocean seafares which has been simulated , carries on the analysis on person's behavior process expiration with engineering neuron, has established the time-variable behavior reliability computation model, proposes the concept of crew seaworthiness and the computation model and has carried on the analysis to the renewal pattern and the maintenance mode of the seaworthiness and has established seaworthiness maintenance model on the base of the circuitry, the paper has also carried on the simulation to crew's seaworthy response output.
From the angle of coordination control between person and ship, this paper carries on the appraisal to the rational distribution of ships man-machine function with the AHP law and conducts the research on safety control pattern of the ocean navigation, navigation in recent sea area and navigation in the post oral region; In the control of human-ship stable condition, this paper establishes the person ship integration closed-loop control mathematical model according to transfer function mathematical model of ships controled, and has carried on the simulation analysis to its output state. To further analyze on human's behavior output procedure, this paper has also carried on the simulation analysis to best setting of human quadratic form.
In view of the important effects of device status to ship maneuverability, the paper has carried on the computation with the state space coupling theory to the ships man-machine system breakdown transition probability and has established the optimized model for the equipment spare parts and the equipment service in combination of the Baltic Sea freight index on the base of the reliability and the efficiency, and has carried on the example confirmation.
The concept of ships security entropy and the appraisal mathematical model has been defined in this paper. With the current information technology, from four information sources that the crew, the ships, the environment and manage. This paper also established the ships dynamic navigation safety control information system for the ships manipulator and the shipping managers to take the associated measures to reduce the failure probability of the human- ship system stable condition.
论文在统计分析船舶安全事故的基础上,对碰撞事故致因源进行相关度分析,追溯了船舶操纵人因失效的根原因,建立了远洋船员机体功能Markov状态链,并进行了仿真:把神经元工程化对人的行为过程失效进行分析,建立了时变行为可靠度的计算模型,提出了船员适航度概念及计算模型,对适航度的更新模式和维护方式进行了分析,并建立了基于电路原理的适航度维护模型,对船员的适航性响应输出进行了仿真。
从人船协调控制角度,利用AHP法对船舶人机功能合理分配进行评价,对大洋航行、近海域航行和港口区航行的安全控制模式进行研究;在人船平稳状态的控制特性中,根据人的传递函数数学模型、船舶控制的传递函数数学模型,建立了人船一体化的闭环控制数学模型,并对其输出状态进行了仿真分析。为了进一步分析人的行为输出过程,利用最小二次型法对其仿真分析。
针对设备状态对船舶操纵性能的重要影响,论文在统计分析了船舶设备故障的基础上,利用状态空间耦合理论对船舶人机系统故障转移概率进行了计算;基于可靠性和经济性,建立了设备备件和设备维修的优化模型,并进行了实例验证。
最后,根据船舶运动数学模型,利用龙格一库塔积分法,仿真了复杂环境下的船舶回转性和横摇角度变化,可为船舶操纵安全提供依据。定义了船舶安全熵的概念和评价数学模型;利用当前信息技术,从船员、船舶、环境及管理四个信息源,建立船舶动态航行安全管理信息系统,以便船舶操纵者和航运管理者采取相关措施,减少人船平稳状态的失效概率。
As ships quantity increasing, tonnage enlarging and the speed enhancing, there is a higher request for the marine traffic safety, and we must do further studies for accident's occurrence mechanisms and the control mode. The paper has done the systemic research to failure mechanisms and the control mode of the ships navigation's stable condition with safety system engineering logical thinking and the angle of person, ship and environmental effect. The ships security evaluation and the management information system has been made on the base of the theory achievement, all the work done in this paper provided the theory basis and the practice safeguard to prevent and reduce the marine traffic accident.
With the statistical analysis of ship safety accidents ,this paper carries on the analysis on degree of correlation of the collision accident disaster-causing , has traced the root causes of the human failure in the ship maneuvering and has established organism function Markov condition chain of ocean seafares which has been simulated , carries on the analysis on person's behavior process expiration with engineering neuron, has established the time-variable behavior reliability computation model, proposes the concept of crew seaworthiness and the computation model and has carried on the analysis to the renewal pattern and the maintenance mode of the seaworthiness and has established seaworthiness maintenance model on the base of the circuitry, the paper has also carried on the simulation to crew's seaworthy response output.
From the angle of coordination control between person and ship, this paper carries on the appraisal to the rational distribution of ships man-machine function with the AHP law and conducts the research on safety control pattern of the ocean navigation, navigation in recent sea area and navigation in the post oral region; In the control of human-ship stable condition, this paper establishes the person ship integration closed-loop control mathematical model according to transfer function mathematical model of ships controled, and has carried on the simulation analysis to its output state. To further analyze on human's behavior output procedure, this paper has also carried on the simulation analysis to best setting of human quadratic form.
In view of the important effects of device status to ship maneuverability, the paper has carried on the computation with the state space coupling theory to the ships man-machine system breakdown transition probability and has established the optimized model for the equipment spare parts and the equipment service in combination of the Baltic Sea freight index on the base of the reliability and the efficiency, and has carried on the example confirmation.
The concept of ships security entropy and the appraisal mathematical model has been defined in this paper. With the current information technology, from four information sources that the crew, the ships, the environment and manage. This paper also established the ships dynamic navigation safety control information system for the ships manipulator and the shipping managers to take the associated measures to reduce the failure probability of the human- ship system stable condition.
引文
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