基于GIA设定城市增长边界的模型研究
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摘要
中国的城镇化让世界瞩目,以不足百年时间走过了西方二三百年才走过的道路。快速的城镇化为扩大消费和投资需求提供了强大的机遇和动力,同时也给节约资源、改善环境,提升城镇发展的质量和水平带来了前所未有的挑战。在区域协调和城乡发展统筹的转型时期,日趋旺盛的开发需求与日趋强化的资源环境约束的协调已经成为“十二五”规划的热点议题。
从国际经验来看,城市增长边界作为行之有效的空间增长管理的政策工具对于缓解资源约束和经济发展需求之间的尖锐矛盾有着积极的作用。在中国宏观政策层面上,节约土地资源、紧凑发展、低碳城市空间管理等政策都将城市空间增长管理指向加强对城市空间扩张的引导、限制和约束,同时对于耕地资源的红线防守亦对城市建设用地的扩张提出数量和空间分布的限制和约束。然而现行城市规划的价值观及技术途径偏向城市社会经济发展需求而忽视了土地资源稀缺性这一重要特性,现实情况也往往证实城市空间增长管理和规划常常由招商引资、项目投入的实际节奏所反向控制。因此,如何在协调资源保护与土地开发的矛盾的基础上科学合理制定城市增长边界,成为关系城市未来可持续发展的重大挑战。
论文由三部分构成一个逻辑体系：第一部分由第1-3章构成,搭建了论文的研究思路与框架,回顾与评价目前国内外城市增长边界的研究进展和当前GIA体系建构及应用状况,界定了城市增长边界及相关概念,并提出城市增长边界设定与GIA相结合的途径,以实现将城市空间扩展控制在最适宜发展的区域,并将资源保护的传统被动防御方式转变为积极主动应对的方式；第二部分为主要研究内容,由第4-5章构成,首先构建城市增长边界设定与GIA的“交叉框架”,以框架的交点即城市发展潜在土地供给区域为切入点,综合GIS空间分析、土地转移矩阵、景观格局指数分析、GI空间要素辨识及评价排序、CA空间模拟等方法,以模块式组合建构为城市增长边界模型,其核心思想是城市增长边界的设定必须遵守土地资源供给约束条件下的资源保护与土地开发的协调框架,并体现土地特性与土地利用之间的耦合关系。第三部分实例研究部分由第6章构成,以杭州市为研究对象,从杭州城市空间扩展的阶段性特征、土地利用／覆被特征及景观格局变化特征出发对城市增长边界模型进行适宜性研究,通过杭州城市GI空间要素辨识与评价排序,辨识出最具生态价值的GI网络及城市未来发展的土地潜在供给的数量及空间分布,并以此作为宏观约束条件,结合区位变量、邻里变量等约束条件,通过GIA——CA模块预测2020年城市空间拓展状况并制定城市增长边界,为当前精明增长模式下的城市空间管理的规划途径的探讨提供有益的参考。
In the past century, China underwent the urbanization process that has taken western countries for two or three decades, which has caught the attention worldwide. The rapid urbanization process provides unique opportunity and motivation to consuming and investigation demands, meanwhile, it also offers unspeakable challenge to energy saving, environment improvement as well as development quality security. Therefore, during the transformation period of regional coordination and coordinating urban and rural development, the coordination between increasingly strong development demands and never ever more intense environment resource constrain has become the heat topic in the "twelfth five-year-plan outline"
From international experience, a well-established UGB as a urban spatial growth management policy tool, is playing an active role in soothing the confliction between the resource constrain and economic development demand. At macro-policy level in China, the ever growing demand of land conservation, compact development, and low-carbon urban space management is guiding growth management into the direction of, more limitations and constraints on urban space urban spatial expansion strengthen. Meanwhile, the red line for cultivated land protection also proposed restrictions and constraints on both the quantity and layout of further urban sprawl. However, the present values and technical approach of urban planning pay more attention to the aspect of social and economic development needs while the scarcity of land resources which is a very important factor is neglected. The reality also suggests that the urban spatial growth management and planning is always controlled by the actual pace of project inputs and investment. Therefore, it has become a great challenge for sustainable urban development to establish a scientific urban growth boundary on the basis of coordinating resource protection and economic development
This paper is a logical system containing three parts:the first part is research basis containing establishing the research idea and framework of the paper. Through review and evaluate the current UGB research and GIA system building and application situation both in China and aboard, the approach of combining UGB establishment and GIA is proposed, so as to achieve the goal to maintain the urban sprawl within the most suitable development area and converse the traditional passive resource conservation into an active defensive method. The second sector is about research content. The "cross frame" is established on the basis UGB and GIA, the intersection point of which is the entry point of potential land supply area for urban construction. Integrated by GIS spatial analysis, land transfer matrix analysis of landscape pattern index, GI identification and evaluation of spatial elements, CA Space Simulation and other methods the UGB spatial model is built. The core idea is that the development of urban growth boundaries must comply with land supply constraints and resource protection under the coordination of land development framework, and reflect land coupling relationship between the use and land characteristics. The third part is a case study of Hangzhou in Yangtze River Delta region. The suitability of the urban growth boundary spatial model is studied through analyzing changing periodic characteristic of Hangzhou spatial expansion, land use/cover and landscape pattern. The potential quantity and spatial layout of urban land supply as well as GI net whose ecological value is the highest within the region can be identified through GI element identification and evaluation. Such potential land supply mentioned is set as the macro constrain condition, and combining it with other constraints like regional parameters and neighbor parameters, Hangzhou's 2020 urban sprawl situation can be simulated utilizing GIA-CA model and based on the result the UGB can be developed. This scientifically established UGB can be used as a useful reference for urban planning approach of current urban spatial management under the smart growth model.
从国际经验来看,城市增长边界作为行之有效的空间增长管理的政策工具对于缓解资源约束和经济发展需求之间的尖锐矛盾有着积极的作用。在中国宏观政策层面上,节约土地资源、紧凑发展、低碳城市空间管理等政策都将城市空间增长管理指向加强对城市空间扩张的引导、限制和约束,同时对于耕地资源的红线防守亦对城市建设用地的扩张提出数量和空间分布的限制和约束。然而现行城市规划的价值观及技术途径偏向城市社会经济发展需求而忽视了土地资源稀缺性这一重要特性,现实情况也往往证实城市空间增长管理和规划常常由招商引资、项目投入的实际节奏所反向控制。因此,如何在协调资源保护与土地开发的矛盾的基础上科学合理制定城市增长边界,成为关系城市未来可持续发展的重大挑战。
论文由三部分构成一个逻辑体系：第一部分由第1-3章构成,搭建了论文的研究思路与框架,回顾与评价目前国内外城市增长边界的研究进展和当前GIA体系建构及应用状况,界定了城市增长边界及相关概念,并提出城市增长边界设定与GIA相结合的途径,以实现将城市空间扩展控制在最适宜发展的区域,并将资源保护的传统被动防御方式转变为积极主动应对的方式；第二部分为主要研究内容,由第4-5章构成,首先构建城市增长边界设定与GIA的“交叉框架”,以框架的交点即城市发展潜在土地供给区域为切入点,综合GIS空间分析、土地转移矩阵、景观格局指数分析、GI空间要素辨识及评价排序、CA空间模拟等方法,以模块式组合建构为城市增长边界模型,其核心思想是城市增长边界的设定必须遵守土地资源供给约束条件下的资源保护与土地开发的协调框架,并体现土地特性与土地利用之间的耦合关系。第三部分实例研究部分由第6章构成,以杭州市为研究对象,从杭州城市空间扩展的阶段性特征、土地利用／覆被特征及景观格局变化特征出发对城市增长边界模型进行适宜性研究,通过杭州城市GI空间要素辨识与评价排序,辨识出最具生态价值的GI网络及城市未来发展的土地潜在供给的数量及空间分布,并以此作为宏观约束条件,结合区位变量、邻里变量等约束条件,通过GIA——CA模块预测2020年城市空间拓展状况并制定城市增长边界,为当前精明增长模式下的城市空间管理的规划途径的探讨提供有益的参考。
In the past century, China underwent the urbanization process that has taken western countries for two or three decades, which has caught the attention worldwide. The rapid urbanization process provides unique opportunity and motivation to consuming and investigation demands, meanwhile, it also offers unspeakable challenge to energy saving, environment improvement as well as development quality security. Therefore, during the transformation period of regional coordination and coordinating urban and rural development, the coordination between increasingly strong development demands and never ever more intense environment resource constrain has become the heat topic in the "twelfth five-year-plan outline"
From international experience, a well-established UGB as a urban spatial growth management policy tool, is playing an active role in soothing the confliction between the resource constrain and economic development demand. At macro-policy level in China, the ever growing demand of land conservation, compact development, and low-carbon urban space management is guiding growth management into the direction of, more limitations and constraints on urban space urban spatial expansion strengthen. Meanwhile, the red line for cultivated land protection also proposed restrictions and constraints on both the quantity and layout of further urban sprawl. However, the present values and technical approach of urban planning pay more attention to the aspect of social and economic development needs while the scarcity of land resources which is a very important factor is neglected. The reality also suggests that the urban spatial growth management and planning is always controlled by the actual pace of project inputs and investment. Therefore, it has become a great challenge for sustainable urban development to establish a scientific urban growth boundary on the basis of coordinating resource protection and economic development
This paper is a logical system containing three parts:the first part is research basis containing establishing the research idea and framework of the paper. Through review and evaluate the current UGB research and GIA system building and application situation both in China and aboard, the approach of combining UGB establishment and GIA is proposed, so as to achieve the goal to maintain the urban sprawl within the most suitable development area and converse the traditional passive resource conservation into an active defensive method. The second sector is about research content. The "cross frame" is established on the basis UGB and GIA, the intersection point of which is the entry point of potential land supply area for urban construction. Integrated by GIS spatial analysis, land transfer matrix analysis of landscape pattern index, GI identification and evaluation of spatial elements, CA Space Simulation and other methods the UGB spatial model is built. The core idea is that the development of urban growth boundaries must comply with land supply constraints and resource protection under the coordination of land development framework, and reflect land coupling relationship between the use and land characteristics. The third part is a case study of Hangzhou in Yangtze River Delta region. The suitability of the urban growth boundary spatial model is studied through analyzing changing periodic characteristic of Hangzhou spatial expansion, land use/cover and landscape pattern. The potential quantity and spatial layout of urban land supply as well as GI net whose ecological value is the highest within the region can be identified through GI element identification and evaluation. Such potential land supply mentioned is set as the macro constrain condition, and combining it with other constraints like regional parameters and neighbor parameters, Hangzhou's 2020 urban sprawl situation can be simulated utilizing GIA-CA model and based on the result the UGB can be developed. This scientifically established UGB can be used as a useful reference for urban planning approach of current urban spatial management under the smart growth model.
引文
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