垃圾填埋场温室气体甲烷排放量观测与预测
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摘要
在以变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化背景下,温室气体(Greenhouse Gas,GHG)排放对全球气候变化的影响已引起各国政府和众多学者的广泛关注。而作为主要温室气体之一的甲烷(CH4),因为增温效能高、增长速度快,其排放源已成为国内外学者关注的焦点。已有大量研究表明垃圾填埋场是CH4最大的人类活动释放源,随着垃圾填埋量的增加,填埋场排放的温室气体逐年增加。本文通过预测未来南京市及全国垃圾产量,并基于静态箱-气相色谱法所获得的南京市天井洼有机废弃物处理场表面的CH4释放速率实地测量数据,估算了垃圾填埋场CH4排放量,具体研究结果如下：
1.根据历年全国和南京市城市生活垃圾(Municipal Solid Waste, MSW)产量进行分析,建立了MSW与时间、生产总值和人口的关系,并基于三种关系建立变权重组合预测模型对未来MSW产量的预测。结果显示,到2050年全国MSW产量23664.936万吨,南京MSW产量288.076万吨。
2.根据模型预测的MSW的产量结果,运用IPCC模型,Maticorena模型及国内填埋场产气模型估算温室气体年排放量。模拟结果表明,到2050年全国垃圾填埋场CH4排放量为479.140万吨,南京垃圾填埋场CH4排放量为5.777万吨。
3.南京市天井洼有机废弃物处理场夏季CH4释放速率12.98～10801.22mg·m-2·h-1,平均值2404.94mg·m-·h-1；秋季为4.75～4046.10mg·m-2·h-1,平均值2282.12mg·m-2·h-1；冬季为8.64～3262.45mg·m-2·h-1,平均值938.09mg·m-2·h-1。总体而言,填埋场表面CH4释放速率与温度、气压存在相关性,一般温度较高,释放速率较大,气压则相反。而释放速率与空气湿度的关系不能很好确定。CH4释放速率可能会受土壤因素影响,如孔隙度,硬度,或垃圾填埋场表层土壤裂缝等,表现在填埋场区不同场点的CH4释放速率显示出很大的随机性。
4.模型模拟的南京天井洼有机废弃物处理场在2011年CH4总量852.352吨。CH4的现场实验表明,该填埋场排放的填埋场表面CH4释放速率在0.114～259.445g·m-2·d-1之间,平均值40.393g·m-2·d-1。
结合国内外其他研究结果显示,不同时间和地区的填埋场CH4释放速率差异很大,CH4释放速率变化规律复杂,需根据具体情况做具体研究。
In the context of global warming, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global climate change has caused widespread concern of Governments and scholars. As one of the major GHG, the emission source of methane (CH4) has become the focus of attention of foreign scholars because warming and growing fast. Studies have shown that the landfill CH4is the largest source of release by human, with the increase in the amount of landfill, the landfill greenhouse gas emissions increasing year by year. Therefore, the article predicted the future waste output in Nanjing or national and estimated the amount of the landfill CH4emissions based on the measurement data of surface CH4release rate in the Nanjing Tianjingwa organic waste disposal sites by field static chamber-gas chromatography. The specific research results are as follows:
1. According to the production of municipal solid waste (MSW) in national and Nanjing past years, we established the relationships between MSW and time, GDP and population, and built variable weight combination forecasting model based on three relationships, which can forecast the future the productionof MSW. The results show that MSW production in2050is236,649,360tons, Nanjing MSW production is2,880,760t.
2. Greenhouse gas emission was estimated by the IPCC models Maticorena model and landfill gas production model based on the output of the predicted MSW. The simulation results show that, The CH4emissions of national and Nanjing were4.7914million tons and57,770tons to the2050.
3. The CH4release rate in the Nanjing Tianjingwa organic waste disposal sites were12.98-10801.22mg·m-2·h-1, with the average2404.94mg·m-2·h-1in summer; of4.75to4046.10mg·m-2·h-1, with the average2282.12mg·m-2·h-1in autumn; r8.64to3262.45mg·m-2·h-1, with the average938.09mg·m-2·h1in winte. Overall, the landfill surface CH4release rate pressure correlation with temperature and pressure, the general higher temperature, the release rate was higher, and pressure was on the contrary. Release rate were not well determined with air humidity. May be affected by soil factors, such as porosity, hardness, or landfill surface soil cracks, CH4release rate shows a great deal of randomness the performance of different field point of landfill.
4. CH4total of the Nanjing Tianjingwa organic waste disposal sites simulated by IPCC model, the Maticorena model and the landfill gas model were578.142tons,852.352tons and941.914tons respectively in2011. The field experiments indicate that CH4release rate on the landfill surface of the landfill was-3.726～259.445g· m-2·d-1, with the average of40.393g·m-2·d-1
It show that CH4release rate variation of the landfill is complex at different times and regions Combined with other domestic and foreign research results. And it needs to make a specific study depending on the circumstances.
1.根据历年全国和南京市城市生活垃圾(Municipal Solid Waste, MSW)产量进行分析,建立了MSW与时间、生产总值和人口的关系,并基于三种关系建立变权重组合预测模型对未来MSW产量的预测。结果显示,到2050年全国MSW产量23664.936万吨,南京MSW产量288.076万吨。
2.根据模型预测的MSW的产量结果,运用IPCC模型,Maticorena模型及国内填埋场产气模型估算温室气体年排放量。模拟结果表明,到2050年全国垃圾填埋场CH4排放量为479.140万吨,南京垃圾填埋场CH4排放量为5.777万吨。
3.南京市天井洼有机废弃物处理场夏季CH4释放速率12.98～10801.22mg·m-2·h-1,平均值2404.94mg·m-·h-1；秋季为4.75～4046.10mg·m-2·h-1,平均值2282.12mg·m-2·h-1；冬季为8.64～3262.45mg·m-2·h-1,平均值938.09mg·m-2·h-1。总体而言,填埋场表面CH4释放速率与温度、气压存在相关性,一般温度较高,释放速率较大,气压则相反。而释放速率与空气湿度的关系不能很好确定。CH4释放速率可能会受土壤因素影响,如孔隙度,硬度,或垃圾填埋场表层土壤裂缝等,表现在填埋场区不同场点的CH4释放速率显示出很大的随机性。
4.模型模拟的南京天井洼有机废弃物处理场在2011年CH4总量852.352吨。CH4的现场实验表明,该填埋场排放的填埋场表面CH4释放速率在0.114～259.445g·m-2·d-1之间,平均值40.393g·m-2·d-1。
结合国内外其他研究结果显示,不同时间和地区的填埋场CH4释放速率差异很大,CH4释放速率变化规律复杂,需根据具体情况做具体研究。
In the context of global warming, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global climate change has caused widespread concern of Governments and scholars. As one of the major GHG, the emission source of methane (CH4) has become the focus of attention of foreign scholars because warming and growing fast. Studies have shown that the landfill CH4is the largest source of release by human, with the increase in the amount of landfill, the landfill greenhouse gas emissions increasing year by year. Therefore, the article predicted the future waste output in Nanjing or national and estimated the amount of the landfill CH4emissions based on the measurement data of surface CH4release rate in the Nanjing Tianjingwa organic waste disposal sites by field static chamber-gas chromatography. The specific research results are as follows:
1. According to the production of municipal solid waste (MSW) in national and Nanjing past years, we established the relationships between MSW and time, GDP and population, and built variable weight combination forecasting model based on three relationships, which can forecast the future the productionof MSW. The results show that MSW production in2050is236,649,360tons, Nanjing MSW production is2,880,760t.
2. Greenhouse gas emission was estimated by the IPCC models Maticorena model and landfill gas production model based on the output of the predicted MSW. The simulation results show that, The CH4emissions of national and Nanjing were4.7914million tons and57,770tons to the2050.
3. The CH4release rate in the Nanjing Tianjingwa organic waste disposal sites were12.98-10801.22mg·m-2·h-1, with the average2404.94mg·m-2·h-1in summer; of4.75to4046.10mg·m-2·h-1, with the average2282.12mg·m-2·h-1in autumn; r8.64to3262.45mg·m-2·h-1, with the average938.09mg·m-2·h1in winte. Overall, the landfill surface CH4release rate pressure correlation with temperature and pressure, the general higher temperature, the release rate was higher, and pressure was on the contrary. Release rate were not well determined with air humidity. May be affected by soil factors, such as porosity, hardness, or landfill surface soil cracks, CH4release rate shows a great deal of randomness the performance of different field point of landfill.
4. CH4total of the Nanjing Tianjingwa organic waste disposal sites simulated by IPCC model, the Maticorena model and the landfill gas model were578.142tons,852.352tons and941.914tons respectively in2011. The field experiments indicate that CH4release rate on the landfill surface of the landfill was-3.726～259.445g· m-2·d-1, with the average of40.393g·m-2·d-1
It show that CH4release rate variation of the landfill is complex at different times and regions Combined with other domestic and foreign research results. And it needs to make a specific study depending on the circumstances.
引文
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