耕地质量评价的模型方法与信息系统集成及应用研究
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摘要
土地资源作为人类赖以生存的物质基础,其数量和质量的演变直接关系着国家的粮食安全与社会稳定。近年来,工业化、城镇化的发展以及生态退耕政策的实施,使我国耕地整体数量呈持续下降趋势;机械、化肥、农药等高能耗工业产品的大量投入,给农业带来高速发展的同时,也引发了一系列耕地退化问题。如何协调耕地资源利用与人口增加、经济发展和环境保护的矛盾,实现耕地资源的可持续利用,成为当代农学界、土壤学界以及土地管理学界的重要课题。
20世纪90年代以来,空间、遥感、地理信息系统、计算机等现代高新技术和系统论、信息论、控制论等现代科学方法得到广泛而深入应用,为面临信息时代资源环境科学的发展,展示出更加广阔的前景。本文以湖北省宜都市和江汉平原后湖农场为研究样区,综合应用计算机、ComGIS、UML、工作流、专家系统等高新技术,结合土壤、土地、景观、生态、信息和现代数学等多学科理论方法,设计并开发了农用地分等定级与估价信息系统(ALEIS);在可持续发展理论指导下,探讨了耕地质量评价、土地利用动态监测、农业生态风险评估和耕地适宜性选择方案等农用地质量的监、控、管体系的理论、模型和方法,从自然、社会、经济、环境和土地利用等多角度揭示了耕地质量的变化特征;深入挖掘了多学科交叉解决农业生产实际问题的方法。对于土壤学、土地科学等传统学科与地理信息学等新型学科的融合与发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。现将取得的主要研究工作进展和结果总结如下:
(1) 基于数据共享的需要,分析了农用地分等定级估价信息的基本特征,开展了数据分类与编码、数据的收集与标准化等方面的研究;借助ComGIS、UML、工作流等技术,通过概要分析、需求分析、系统设计、系统实施和系统评价等GIS开发过程建立了ALEIS。系统具有以下特点:属性数据库、空间数据库和模型库一体化管理;采用Windows的图形用户界面(UI)、向导导航与用户交互;数据库标准化、规范化,能与其他国土资源信息系统兼容,有利于土地信息的共享与交流;采用ComGIS技术,简化开发过程,同时可以根据用户需要添加功能模块,系统的维护、扩充更加方便。
(2) 在ALEIS支持下,研究了农用地分等定级与估价的定量化模型与方法。研究采用特尔斐、主成分分析等多种方法确定农用地评价指标体系和权系数,根据各指标的特性建立合理的赋值方式和量化表达方法,然后综合运用因素法、聚类分析法、模糊物元贴近度模型等数理方法划分农用地等别、级别;引入C—D生产函数法,对测得的农用地实际收益进行校正,在测算样本地价的基础上,建立农用地数字地价模型,获取基准地价。文中以湖北省宜都市为研究样区,先后
Land resources as material base for mankind survival and development, grain security and social stability of country are directly related to it's evolvement of quantity and quality. In recent years, the quantity of cultivated land in our country emerges a lasting downward trend because of the development of industrialization and urbanization and the implementation of the policy of ecological land withdrawing from cultivated land. Use of a large amount industrial product of high energy consumption, such as machinery, chemical fertilizer, pesticide and so on, not only brings to high speed developing of agriculture, but also causes a series of questions for cultivated land degradation. How to coordinate contradiction about utilization of cultivated land resources and population increase and economic development and environmental protection, realize the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources, these topic for discussion gradually become important subject for contemporary agronomy, agrology and land management.Since 1990s, modern new and high technology which concludes space, remote sensing, geographical information system, computer, etc and modern scientific method which includes systematology, informationism, cybernetics, etc are got extensive and deep application. This status gives wider foreground for the development of resource and environment science which faces to information age nowadays. By using such new and high technology as computer, ComGIS, UML, workflow, expert system, combining such multidisciplinary theory and methods as soil, land, landscape, ecology, information and modern mathematics, this paper carries out following researches: l)designing and developing information system of classification, graduation and evaluation on cultivated land(ALEIS); 2)Under the guidance of sustainable development theory, probing into theory, model and method of cultivated land quality monitoring, control and management for plantation quality evaluation, land use dynamic monitoring, agricultural ecological risk evaluation and plantation suitability choice project; 3)opening out change characteristic of cultivated land quality from multi-angles for nature, society, economy, environment and land use; 4)excavating new method for multidisciplinary cross thoroughly in order to solve the practical problem of agricultural production. The research of this paper has important theory and practice meaning as to subject amalgamation and development for traditional subject such as agrology, land science and new-style subject such GIS. The main conclusions of the research are summarized as follows.(1) In order to share the basic data widely, this paper analyses the basic characteristic of classification, graduation and evaluation on cultivated land, develops
sort and coding, collection and standardization of data; ALEIS is established based on the technology of ComGIS, UML, workflow, etc and rigorous GIS development process of demand analysis, system design, system implementation and system evaluation. The system has the following characteristic: integrating and managing the attribute database, spatial database and model storehouse into a uniform system; using the windows graphic user interface (GUI) as interactive tools which make establishment and maintenance of ALEIS database convenient; simplifying the developing process and increasing the expansibility of the system by adopting ComGIS technology.(2) Under the support of ALEIS, the quantitative appraisal models and methods of classification, graduation and evaluation on cultivated land have been developed. First, the factors and its weights affecting cultivated land quality are decided by Delphi, AHP methods, the subject function of evaluation factors is built according to every factor characteristic; then cultivated land quality levels are divided by using factor method, cluster analysis model, fuzzy matter-element proximity model; finally, after revising cultivated land actual net income by introducing into C-D productive function and calculating sample price, the digital price model is set up and cultivated land datum value is obtained. Taking Yidu County in Hubei Province as an example, the classification, graduation and digital land price model on cultivated land are finished successively in this research. Through sampling inspection, the results and local actual conditions has wonderful comparability. It should provide reference and gist to cultivated land sustainable development and integrated foundation of market for land price of urban and rural areas.(3) Because landscape ecology emphasizes lots of macroscopical characteristics as the space heterogeneity, scale, landscape Pattern and ecological course, it has offered the new visual angle in the research of land resource use and dynamic management. By using GIS and the method of landscape ecology, land use spatial pattern and quantitative structure in Yidu County of Hubei Province in 2001 are studied. At the same time, tendencies of land use structure in 2010,2015 are predicted by linking land use changing survey data in 1999,2000,2002,2003 and using general grey dynamic model. By using the general GM model, it has effectively improved the precision of predicting results. It's a great importance to draw scientific and reasonable land use layout and dynamic management.(4) Because of environmental pollution and improper utilization for cultivated land, the problems of land productivity, economic benefit and soil degeneration become remarkably on the process of plantation management. By introducing niche-fitness theory which is applied widely in ecology into multi-suitability evaluation of cultivated land, it expands application domain of traditional ecology methods and promotes multidisciplinary amalgamation of agro-ecology and land management science. Furthermore, treating crop-soil as part of ecosystem, research in the interaction and natural selection is more according with fact than ever. This is a new visual angle of view in agricultural research. With the theory of sustainable development as guide for the agriculture of China, farmland in Houhu region of the Jianghan Plain was selected for case-study on introduction of the niche-fitness theory
into multi-suitability evaluation of cultivated land. Quantitative analyses of niche fitness and restrictive factors for rice, wheat, cotton and rape, were carried out by means of weighted average and limiting factor models. At the same time, this paper puts forward the best use mode of every plot. The results indicate that the niche-fitness value in this area is in medium on the high side with the peak value reaching 0.958, suggesting the region meets the basic requirements of the crops; and farmlands in Grade 1 and 2 account for 75%; rice ranks first in terms of acreage of niche-fitness, amounting to 65.54%, and wheat comes the next. CEC, soluble phosphorus and accessibility to roads are the primary niche factors that restrict land productive potential in this area. These research results can find direct application to supervision of agricultural production, to reasonable utilization and scientific management of cultivated land resources.(5) For agriculture sustainable development, it's one of the key content to develop scientific evaluation for ecological degeneration problem by causing economic development. Introducing ecological risk analysis into cultivated land pollution and quality degradation risk evaluation, this paper tries to work out a simple and useful assessment method to measure cultivated land risk degree which includes establishing risk evaluation factors and mathematic models, calculating soil single pollution risk index, comprehensive pollution index and comprehensive risk index. Results indicate that the cultivated land quality risk in this area is primarily tiny risk and average risk in which the percentage of area amounts to 83.1%; areas of biggish risk is only 5.01%; it's proved that soluble phosphorus, accessibility level of road and comprehensive pollution ecological risk index are the primary limitative factors for ecological risk management. The results can be used as a quantitative basis in evaluation cultivated land quality and resolving the soil degradation risk in this region.
20世纪90年代以来,空间、遥感、地理信息系统、计算机等现代高新技术和系统论、信息论、控制论等现代科学方法得到广泛而深入应用,为面临信息时代资源环境科学的发展,展示出更加广阔的前景。本文以湖北省宜都市和江汉平原后湖农场为研究样区,综合应用计算机、ComGIS、UML、工作流、专家系统等高新技术,结合土壤、土地、景观、生态、信息和现代数学等多学科理论方法,设计并开发了农用地分等定级与估价信息系统(ALEIS);在可持续发展理论指导下,探讨了耕地质量评价、土地利用动态监测、农业生态风险评估和耕地适宜性选择方案等农用地质量的监、控、管体系的理论、模型和方法,从自然、社会、经济、环境和土地利用等多角度揭示了耕地质量的变化特征;深入挖掘了多学科交叉解决农业生产实际问题的方法。对于土壤学、土地科学等传统学科与地理信息学等新型学科的融合与发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。现将取得的主要研究工作进展和结果总结如下:
(1) 基于数据共享的需要,分析了农用地分等定级估价信息的基本特征,开展了数据分类与编码、数据的收集与标准化等方面的研究;借助ComGIS、UML、工作流等技术,通过概要分析、需求分析、系统设计、系统实施和系统评价等GIS开发过程建立了ALEIS。系统具有以下特点:属性数据库、空间数据库和模型库一体化管理;采用Windows的图形用户界面(UI)、向导导航与用户交互;数据库标准化、规范化,能与其他国土资源信息系统兼容,有利于土地信息的共享与交流;采用ComGIS技术,简化开发过程,同时可以根据用户需要添加功能模块,系统的维护、扩充更加方便。
(2) 在ALEIS支持下,研究了农用地分等定级与估价的定量化模型与方法。研究采用特尔斐、主成分分析等多种方法确定农用地评价指标体系和权系数,根据各指标的特性建立合理的赋值方式和量化表达方法,然后综合运用因素法、聚类分析法、模糊物元贴近度模型等数理方法划分农用地等别、级别;引入C—D生产函数法,对测得的农用地实际收益进行校正,在测算样本地价的基础上,建立农用地数字地价模型,获取基准地价。文中以湖北省宜都市为研究样区,先后
Land resources as material base for mankind survival and development, grain security and social stability of country are directly related to it's evolvement of quantity and quality. In recent years, the quantity of cultivated land in our country emerges a lasting downward trend because of the development of industrialization and urbanization and the implementation of the policy of ecological land withdrawing from cultivated land. Use of a large amount industrial product of high energy consumption, such as machinery, chemical fertilizer, pesticide and so on, not only brings to high speed developing of agriculture, but also causes a series of questions for cultivated land degradation. How to coordinate contradiction about utilization of cultivated land resources and population increase and economic development and environmental protection, realize the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources, these topic for discussion gradually become important subject for contemporary agronomy, agrology and land management.Since 1990s, modern new and high technology which concludes space, remote sensing, geographical information system, computer, etc and modern scientific method which includes systematology, informationism, cybernetics, etc are got extensive and deep application. This status gives wider foreground for the development of resource and environment science which faces to information age nowadays. By using such new and high technology as computer, ComGIS, UML, workflow, expert system, combining such multidisciplinary theory and methods as soil, land, landscape, ecology, information and modern mathematics, this paper carries out following researches: l)designing and developing information system of classification, graduation and evaluation on cultivated land(ALEIS); 2)Under the guidance of sustainable development theory, probing into theory, model and method of cultivated land quality monitoring, control and management for plantation quality evaluation, land use dynamic monitoring, agricultural ecological risk evaluation and plantation suitability choice project; 3)opening out change characteristic of cultivated land quality from multi-angles for nature, society, economy, environment and land use; 4)excavating new method for multidisciplinary cross thoroughly in order to solve the practical problem of agricultural production. The research of this paper has important theory and practice meaning as to subject amalgamation and development for traditional subject such as agrology, land science and new-style subject such GIS. The main conclusions of the research are summarized as follows.(1) In order to share the basic data widely, this paper analyses the basic characteristic of classification, graduation and evaluation on cultivated land, develops
sort and coding, collection and standardization of data; ALEIS is established based on the technology of ComGIS, UML, workflow, etc and rigorous GIS development process of demand analysis, system design, system implementation and system evaluation. The system has the following characteristic: integrating and managing the attribute database, spatial database and model storehouse into a uniform system; using the windows graphic user interface (GUI) as interactive tools which make establishment and maintenance of ALEIS database convenient; simplifying the developing process and increasing the expansibility of the system by adopting ComGIS technology.(2) Under the support of ALEIS, the quantitative appraisal models and methods of classification, graduation and evaluation on cultivated land have been developed. First, the factors and its weights affecting cultivated land quality are decided by Delphi, AHP methods, the subject function of evaluation factors is built according to every factor characteristic; then cultivated land quality levels are divided by using factor method, cluster analysis model, fuzzy matter-element proximity model; finally, after revising cultivated land actual net income by introducing into C-D productive function and calculating sample price, the digital price model is set up and cultivated land datum value is obtained. Taking Yidu County in Hubei Province as an example, the classification, graduation and digital land price model on cultivated land are finished successively in this research. Through sampling inspection, the results and local actual conditions has wonderful comparability. It should provide reference and gist to cultivated land sustainable development and integrated foundation of market for land price of urban and rural areas.(3) Because landscape ecology emphasizes lots of macroscopical characteristics as the space heterogeneity, scale, landscape Pattern and ecological course, it has offered the new visual angle in the research of land resource use and dynamic management. By using GIS and the method of landscape ecology, land use spatial pattern and quantitative structure in Yidu County of Hubei Province in 2001 are studied. At the same time, tendencies of land use structure in 2010,2015 are predicted by linking land use changing survey data in 1999,2000,2002,2003 and using general grey dynamic model. By using the general GM model, it has effectively improved the precision of predicting results. It's a great importance to draw scientific and reasonable land use layout and dynamic management.(4) Because of environmental pollution and improper utilization for cultivated land, the problems of land productivity, economic benefit and soil degeneration become remarkably on the process of plantation management. By introducing niche-fitness theory which is applied widely in ecology into multi-suitability evaluation of cultivated land, it expands application domain of traditional ecology methods and promotes multidisciplinary amalgamation of agro-ecology and land management science. Furthermore, treating crop-soil as part of ecosystem, research in the interaction and natural selection is more according with fact than ever. This is a new visual angle of view in agricultural research. With the theory of sustainable development as guide for the agriculture of China, farmland in Houhu region of the Jianghan Plain was selected for case-study on introduction of the niche-fitness theory
into multi-suitability evaluation of cultivated land. Quantitative analyses of niche fitness and restrictive factors for rice, wheat, cotton and rape, were carried out by means of weighted average and limiting factor models. At the same time, this paper puts forward the best use mode of every plot. The results indicate that the niche-fitness value in this area is in medium on the high side with the peak value reaching 0.958, suggesting the region meets the basic requirements of the crops; and farmlands in Grade 1 and 2 account for 75%; rice ranks first in terms of acreage of niche-fitness, amounting to 65.54%, and wheat comes the next. CEC, soluble phosphorus and accessibility to roads are the primary niche factors that restrict land productive potential in this area. These research results can find direct application to supervision of agricultural production, to reasonable utilization and scientific management of cultivated land resources.(5) For agriculture sustainable development, it's one of the key content to develop scientific evaluation for ecological degeneration problem by causing economic development. Introducing ecological risk analysis into cultivated land pollution and quality degradation risk evaluation, this paper tries to work out a simple and useful assessment method to measure cultivated land risk degree which includes establishing risk evaluation factors and mathematic models, calculating soil single pollution risk index, comprehensive pollution index and comprehensive risk index. Results indicate that the cultivated land quality risk in this area is primarily tiny risk and average risk in which the percentage of area amounts to 83.1%; areas of biggish risk is only 5.01%; it's proved that soluble phosphorus, accessibility level of road and comprehensive pollution ecological risk index are the primary limitative factors for ecological risk management. The results can be used as a quantitative basis in evaluation cultivated land quality and resolving the soil degradation risk in this region.
引文
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