湖南省土地生态安全预警及调控研究
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摘要
开展土地生态安全预警及调控研究对推进湖南省土地生态系统的维护和土地资源的可持续利用,建设绿色湖南、生态湖南、“两型社会”、生态文明都具有重要意义。本文立足湖南省区域实际,基于生态学、土地科学、地理学等多学科理论,遵循“基础理论研究——现状警情评价——警情预测——排警调控”的思路,构建预警指标体系、预警模型、预测模型和调控模拟模型,对湖南省土地生态安全预警与调控问题进行了研究与探讨。
     (1)系统梳理了土地生态安全预警及调控的内涵、理论、研究内容、结构和方法。土地生态安全预警及调控的理论包括可持续发展理论、生态承载力理论、突变理论、系统论、生态幅理论和耐受性定律、复合生态系统理论、人地关系理论、控制论等;土地生态安全预警及调控的研究内容主要包括五部分,即明确警义、分析警情、探索警源、预报警度和排除警患,在实际操作过程中可采取“明确警义→分析警情→探索警源→预报警度→排警调控”的流程;土地生态安全预警及调控的系统结构包括信息收集与整理系统、预警分析系统、预报系统和调控系统;土地生态安全预警的方法有黑色预警法、绿色预警法、黄色预警法、红色预警法、白色预警法,调控的方法可以借鉴生态安全领域的有关方法,包括情景分析法、决策支持法、模式调控法、控制论方法等。
     (2)剖析了湖南省土地生态安全面临的主要问题,并运用生态足迹模型对2010年湖南省土地资源的安全性进行了评估,结果表明,2010年湖南省土地资源的人均生态承载力低于其人均生态足迹,土地生态出现赤字,土地资源处于不安全状态,有必要进行预警及调控研究,以明确其警情状况。
     (3)基于PSR模型框架,从压力、状态、响应三方面选取指标建立湖南省土地生态安全预警指标体系,综合运用熵权法和综合指数法从时、空两个维度对湖南省土地生态安全警情现状进行评价。结果表明:①1996-2010年,湖南省土地生态安全警情呈下降态势,由“高警”(橙灯)下降到“中警”(黄灯),但总体上下降幅度有限,土地生态系统面临的问题未得到根本解决。其中,压力系统的预警指数呈波动状上升态势,警度由“高警”(橙灯)上升到“重警”(红灯);状态系统的预警指数呈略微上升态势,警度基本处于“中警”(黄灯)状态;响应系统的预警指数呈迅速下降态势,警度由“重警”(红灯)直线下降至“轻警”(蓝灯)。②从生态安全警情空间格局看,2010年,湖南省土地生态安全基本呈“中部警情高,四周警情低”的格局。在各子系统上,2010年,压力系统呈“湘中和湘北警情高,湘东、湘南、湘西南和湘西北警情居中,湘西警情偏低”的格局;状态系统呈“湘西南警情低,其他地区警情高”的格局;响应系统呈“湘北和湘东警情相对较轻,湘南和湘西南警情居中,湘西地区警情相对较重”的格局。在预警指数演变态势上,1996-2010年的15年间,怀化、湘西州呈逆向演化态势,其他市州呈正向演化态势。在警度格局演变状况上,则由1996年“西部警情低,其他地区警情高”的格局演化成2010年的“中部警情高,其他地区警情低”的格局。
     (4)运用主成分分析法,选取13个指标对湖南省土地生态安全影响机制进行分析,结果表明,湖南省十地生态安全的主要影响机制包括社会经济机制、产业结构机制和自然机制。其中社会经济机制是影响湖南省土地生态安全的主要机制和最深层次原因;产业结构机制为第二影响因子;自然机制为第三影响因子。
     (5)在现状警情评价的基础上,运用径向基函数神经网络模型(RBF),基于Matlab7.10.0应用软件编写程序,对2011-2020年湖南省土地生态安全警情演变趋势进行预测。结果表明:①RBF模型有较高的模拟精度,能较好地拟合2011-2020年湖南省土地生态安全警情演变趋势。②在各子系统的警情演变趋势上,2011-2020年,湖南省土地生态安全压力系统的预警指数将逐步波动上升,到2020年将接近0.63,处于“重警”(红灯)状态;状态系统的预警指数也将略微波动上升,到2020年基本处于0.41-0.42之间,虽仍为“中警”(黄灯),但变化形势不容乐观;响应系统的预警指数将进一步下降,越来越趋近“轻警”(蓝灯)状态的下限。③总体而言,若不发生大的变故,2011-2020年湖南省土地生态安全预警指数将基本维持1996-2010年的变化趋势,波动中略有下降,基本处于0.46-0.49之间,继续维持“中警”(黄灯)水平。
     (6)基于情景分析法,设置人口调控情景、土地生态环境保护情景、社会经济发展提升情景、统筹协调情景四个情景对湖南省土地生态安全警情调控问题进行模拟,结果表明:四种情景下,湖南省土地生态安全预警指数均呈下降趋势,但人口调控情景、土地生态环境保护情景、社会经济发展提升情景下,湖南省土地生态安全预警指数下降幅度有限,均无法达到警度降低的目的;统筹协调情景下土地生态安全警情得到缓和,到2020年将下降至“轻警”状态,说明湖南省土地生态安全警情态势的缓和,需要压力、状态、响应系统的统筹管理和人口、资源、环境、经济、社会的统筹调控。
     (7)从调控模式(包括总体调控模式及城市地区、城乡结合部、水土流失地区、矿区、湖区等典型地区的调控模式)、区域调控(包括长株潭低山丘陵土地生态功能区、湘北平原湖泊土地生态功能区、湘西山地山原土地生态功能区、湘中℡湘西南山地丘岗土地生态功能区、湘南山地丘陵土地生态功能区五个功能区)、土地利用结构调控(基于灰色多目标线性规划法,运用WinQSB应用软件,制定湖南省土地利用结构调控方案)、调控措施和策略等方面对湖南省土地生态安全调控问题进行了探讨,以期为湖南省土地生态安全的有效调控与管理提供参考。
Making research on land ecological security early-warning and regulation, there are great significances on promoting the maintenance of land ecosystems, advancing the sustainable usage of land resources, building "green Hunan","ecological Hunan","two-oriented society" and ecological civilization in Hunan Province. To study the problem of land ecological security early-warning and regulation of Hunan Province, this paper followed the procedure of "basic theoretical research—warning situation assessment—warning situation forecast—warning situation regulation", and built early-warning indicators system, early-warning model, prediction model, and regulation simulative model, which were all based on the regional reality of Hunan Province and theories of ecology, land science, geography and other subjects.
     Firstly, this paper systemically sorted out the connotation, theories, research contents, structures and methods of land ecological security early-warning and regulation. Theories of land ecological security early-warning and regulation including the sustainable development theory, the ecological carrying capacity theory, the catastrophe theory, the system theory, the ecological amplitude theory and tolerability law, the complex ecosystem theory, the human-land relationship theory, the cybernetics theory, etc. Research contents of land ecological security early-warning and regulation mainly including five parts, which are clearing the meaning of early-warning, analyzing the warning situation, exploring the cause of warning, forecasting the degree of warning and excluding the warning suffering, and we can take the process of "clear the meaning of early-warning→analyzing the warning situation→exploring the cause of warning→forecasting the degree of warning→excluding warning suffering" in the actual operation. System structures of land ecological security early-warning and regulation including the information collecting and sorting system, the early-warning and analyzing system, the forecasting system and the regulation system. Methods of land ecological security early-warning including the black warning method, the green warning method, the yellow warning method, the red warning method, the white warning method. Regulation methods can learn from the ecological security field, which including the scenario analysis method, the decision support method, the mode-control method, the cybernetics method, etc.
     Secondly, this paper profiled the main problems of land ecological security in Hunan Province, and used the ecological footprint model to assess the security situation of land resources of Hunan Province in2010. Results show that, Hunan Province's per capita ecological carrying capacity of the land resource in2010is lower than its ecological footprint, the land ecological deficit exists, which means that land resource of Hunan Province is in the state of insecurity, therefore, it is necessary to make research on early-warning and regulation, clarify the warning situation of land resource.
     Thirdly, based on the framework of the PSR model, this paper established a land ecological security warning index system of Hunan Province from three aspects of pressure, state and response, and evaluated the land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province from two dimensions of time and space, which integrated used the entropy method and comprehensive index method. Results show that:(1) In1996-2010, land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province showed a slight downward trend, dropped down from "high alarm"(orange light) to "middle alarm"(yellow light), but the drop rate is limited in all, problems that the land ecological system faced have not been fundamentally solved. In terms of each subsystem, the pressure system showed upward trend with fluctuations in1996-2010, the warning degree had risen from "high alarm"(orange light) to "heavy alarm"(red light); the state system's warning index showed a slight upward trend, its warning degree was basic in "middle alarm"(yellow light) state; the response system showed a rapid downward trend, the warning degree plummeted from the state of "heavy alarm"(red light) to "light alarm"(blue light).(2) In2010, the spatial pattern of land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province showed the pattern of "central Hunan was high, and other areas were low". In terms of each subsystem, in2010, warning situation of the pressure system showed the pattern of "central Hunan and northern Hunan were high, followed by eastern Hunan, southern Hunan and southwestern Hunan, and western Hunan was low"; warning situation of the state system showed the pattern of "southwestern Hunan was low, and other areas were high"; warning situation of the response system showed the pattern of "northern Hunan and central Hunan were relatively low, southern Hunan and southwestern Hunan placed in the middle, and western Hunan was relatively heavy". In terms of early-warning indicators'evolve situation, in the15years of1996-2010, Huaihua and Xiangxi autonomous prefecture showed the trend of reversal evolution, and other cities showed the trend of positive evolution. In terms of warning degree evolve situation, the pattern changed from "western Hunan was low, and other areas were high" in1996, to "central Hunan was high, and other areas were low" in2010.
     Fourthly, this paper selected13indicators and used the principal component analysis method to analyze the land ecological security influence mechanisms of Hunan Province. Results show that, the main mechanisms that influenced the land ecological security of Hunan Province including3aspects, which are the socio-economic mechanism, the industrial structure mechanism and the natural mechanism. In which, the socio-economic mechanism is the main mechanism and deepest reason that influence the land ecological security of Hunan Province, the industrial structure mechanism is the second factor that affecting the land ecological security of Hunan Province, and the natural mechanism is the third factor.
     Fifthly, on the basis of current warning situation evaluation, this paper predicted the tendency of land ecological security warning situation evolution of Hunan Province in2011-2020, which used the method of radial basis function neural network model (RBF) and Matlab7.10.0application software. Results show that:(1) RBF model has higher simulation accuracy, which can better fit the land ecological security systems'evolution trends of Hunan Province in2011-2020.(2) In the warning situation evolving trend of the subsystems, in2011-2020, the early-warning index of the pressure system will gradually increase with fluctuations, which will be close to0.63in2020, and in the "heavy alarm"(red light) state; the early-warning index of the state system will also be a slight fluctuation rise to about0.41-0.42in2020, though still in "middle alarm"(yellow light) state, the change situation is not optimistic; the early-warning index of the response system will decline further, increasingly approaching the lower limit of "light alarm"(blue light).(3) In general, if there have no big changes in2011-2020, land ecological security early-warning index of Hunan Province will basically maintain the trend of1996-2010, which will keep slight decline with fluctuations and be basic in0.46-0.49, and continue to maintain the level of "middle alarm"(yellow light).
     Sixthly, based on the scenario analysis method, this paper set four scenarios, which were the population control scenario, the land ecological and environmental protection scenario, the socio-economic development scenario and the coordination scenario, to simulate the land ecological security warning situation regulation in Hunan Province. Results show that, in general, the land ecological security early-warning index of Hunan Province showed a downward trend under four scenarios, but the degree of decline in population control scenario, land ecological and environmental protection scenario, socio-economic development scenario were limited, which unable to achieve the purpose of warning degree reduce, while under the coordination scenario, land ecological security warning degree can be mitigated and will drop to "light alarm" state in2020,which indicate that the alleviation of land ecological security warning situation of Hunan Province need for the integrative management of the pressure, the state and the response system and the coordinative regulation of population, resources, environment, economy and society.
     Finally, to provide reference for the effective regulation and management of land ecological security of Hunan Province, this paper probed on the topic of land ecological security regulation of Hunan Province. These regulations were from aspects of regulation modes (including the overall regulation mode and the typical regulation mode of urban areas, the urban fringe, soil erosion areas, mining areas, the lake district), zoning regulation (including five functional areas, which are the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan low mountains and hills land ecological function areas, the northern plains and lakes land ecological function areas, the western mountains and mountain plateaus land ecological function areas, the centern-southwest mountains and hillocks land ecological function areas, the sorthern mountains and hills land ecological function zone), land use structure regulation (formulate the land-use structure control program by use of the gray multi-target line method and WinQSB application software) and control measures and strategies.
引文
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