江西光伏产业发展研究
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摘要
随着全球经济的快速发展,能源问题和环境压力日趋严峻。为了社会的可持续发展,世界各国都在研究和开发新的可再生能源。在各种新能源中,太阳能是科学家公认的最有前途的替代能源。光伏产业近几年发展突飞猛进,中国作为太阳能光伏产业生产大国,具有广阔的市场发展潜力。短短四年,江西光伏产业实现从无到有,从小到大,发展势头强劲,是江西在中部崛起战略实施的新支点和增长极。光伏产业的可持续健康发展,对发展江西经济具有重要意义。
本文对国内外光伏产业发展趋势进行预测,世界光伏产业继续保持快速发展、国内光伏市场潜力巨大。其次,本文将产业经济学、区域经济学、管理学的基本理论与江西光伏产业发展实践相结合,对江西光伏产业现状及影响因素进行分析,结合江西光伏产业竞争的优劣势,科学规划和定位江西光伏产业的发展方向、目标,并构建了江西光伏产业布局、技术及市场发展模式。最后,提出进一步加快江西光伏产业发展的对策建议。
As the rapid development of the global economy, the energy crisis and the environment pressure are by day stern. New renewable energy resources are being researched and developed all over theworld for sustainable development. energy resources, has great development potential. The whole world pay great attention to PV industry, and it's developing rapidly in recent years. China is one of the largest producer of Solar PV industry and has broad market potential. The short four years, the PV industry in Jiangxi grows out of nothing,from infancy to maturity, and the development momentum is strong, which is the new economic growth level and the pillar industry,if Jiangxi want to rise in middle part of China. The sustainable and healthy development of photovoltaic industry has the great significance to the Jiangxi economic growth.
This thesis analysis and forecasts the development and the trend of photovoltaic industry at home and abroad. The world PV industry maintained rapidly development, the domestic PV market has great potentiality. This thesis combines the basic theory of industrial economic, regional economics with Jiangxi photovoltaic industry practice, combined with advantages and disadvantages of competition of photovoltaic industry in Jiangxi, position, direction and goals of the development of photovoltaic industry in Jiangxi is planned scientificily, and the layout of Jiangxi photovoltaic industry,technology and market development model is build. Finally, recommend how to further and accelerate.
本文对国内外光伏产业发展趋势进行预测,世界光伏产业继续保持快速发展、国内光伏市场潜力巨大。其次,本文将产业经济学、区域经济学、管理学的基本理论与江西光伏产业发展实践相结合,对江西光伏产业现状及影响因素进行分析,结合江西光伏产业竞争的优劣势,科学规划和定位江西光伏产业的发展方向、目标,并构建了江西光伏产业布局、技术及市场发展模式。最后,提出进一步加快江西光伏产业发展的对策建议。
As the rapid development of the global economy, the energy crisis and the environment pressure are by day stern. New renewable energy resources are being researched and developed all over theworld for sustainable development. energy resources, has great development potential. The whole world pay great attention to PV industry, and it's developing rapidly in recent years. China is one of the largest producer of Solar PV industry and has broad market potential. The short four years, the PV industry in Jiangxi grows out of nothing,from infancy to maturity, and the development momentum is strong, which is the new economic growth level and the pillar industry,if Jiangxi want to rise in middle part of China. The sustainable and healthy development of photovoltaic industry has the great significance to the Jiangxi economic growth.
This thesis analysis and forecasts the development and the trend of photovoltaic industry at home and abroad. The world PV industry maintained rapidly development, the domestic PV market has great potentiality. This thesis combines the basic theory of industrial economic, regional economics with Jiangxi photovoltaic industry practice, combined with advantages and disadvantages of competition of photovoltaic industry in Jiangxi, position, direction and goals of the development of photovoltaic industry in Jiangxi is planned scientificily, and the layout of Jiangxi photovoltaic industry,technology and market development model is build. Finally, recommend how to further and accelerate.
引文
[1]陈佳.崛起的光伏产业[J].上海经济.2008(9)：32-33.
[2]吕贝,邱河梅,张宇.太阳能光伏发电产业现状及发展[J].华电技术.2010(1)：73-76.
[3]李英峰,肖莉红,赵明.关于如何发展山东省光伏产业的探讨[J].调研研究信息技术与信息化.2008(3)：8-9.
[4]韦东远.全球太阳能光伏产业发展趋势评述[J].中国科技成果.2009(10)：4-7.
[5]顾列铭.两头在外：中国光伏产业虚火现象[J].长三角.2007[6]：36.
[6]马胜红,许洪华.我国光伏产业发展探讨[J].太阳能.2003(5)：7-10.
[7]戴建军.以技术创新推进光伏产业发展[J].发展研究.2008(7)：39-41.
[8]赵玉文.21世纪我国光伏产业发展战略思考[J].中国工程科学.2001(7)：17-20.
[9]施正荣.中国太阳能光伏产业的发展分析[C].第八届光伏会议论文集.2004：38-42.
[10]周浪,陈昆泉.江西省太阳能光伏产业的发展态势与潜力[J].阳光能源.2008(3)：47-48.
[11]王茂洋,王林.构建光伏产业生态网络的思考——以江西新余为例分析[J].经济问题探索.2009(10)：184-187.
[12]耿亚新,周新生.太阳能光伏产业的理论及发展路径[J].中国软科学.2010(4).
[13]陈建琴,彭迪云,许涵.江西省光伏产业集群发展分析和思考[J].理论导报.2009(4)：21-24.
[14]白生菊.建立“中国光伏产业联盟”推动光伏产业发展[J].中国建设动态(阳光能源).2006(6)：49-50.
[15]黄欢.基于灰色关联分析的光伏产业链浅析[J].商情.2010(8)：71.
[16]周四清,马超群,李林.太阳能光伏产业可持续发展理论研究思考[J].科技进步与政策.2007(7)：89.
[17]李维胜,赵英才.高技术企业发展模式研究[J].中国科技论坛.2006(2)
[18]徐睿.循环经济视角下的太阳能光伏产业发展对策研究[J].辽宁工学院学报.2007(4)：16-18.
[19]胡雪芹.中国光伏产业链发展现状及问题分析[J].总裁.2009(10)：65-66.
[20]李晓刚,中国光伏产业发展战略研究[学位论文],吉林大学,2007年6月。
[21]沈辉,舒碧芬,闻立时.我国太阳能光伏产业的发展机遇与战略对策[J].电池.2005(3)：430-432.
[22]魏启东,王素美,李保庆.蓬勃发展的江苏光伏产业[J].阳光能源.2008(4)：50.
[23]秦凯,聂晶晶.国际金融危机下江苏省光伏产业发展问题研究[J].金融纵横.2010(3)：23-27.
[24]邵学清,陈冰川,徐丽丽.江西省新余光伏产业超常规发展之路[J].中国科技论坛.2010(1)
[25]龚小玮.厦门发展太阳能光伏产业的政策建议[J].厦门特区党校学报.2008(1)：37-38.
[26]吴耀琪.西藏光伏产业发展途径探讨[J].新材料产业.2007(7)：40.
[27]马兵,我国太阳能热水器中小企业竞争战略研究[学位论文],山东大学,2009年3月。
[28]刘贞先,山东桑乐太阳能有限公司竞争战略设计[学位论文],山东大学,2006年4月。
[29]高斌,北京京仪集团太阳能电池硅材料制备设备产品发展战略研究[学位论文],对外经贸大学,2007年10月。[99]李振,余翔,太阳能产业专利发展趋势与专利战略应用,电子知识产权,2008年第2期。
[30]张岩贵,陈晓燕,从日、德、中光伏产业看跨国公司的整合策略[学位论文],国际经济合作,2009年5月
[31]Photovoltaic energy for the new millenium:The US Na-tional Photovoltaics Program Plan [J]. Sun World,2000,24(1):4
[32]Germany's new renewables law is passed[J]. Renew-able Energy World,2000,3(2):8
[33]Jones J. Shell's new solar cell plant opens[J]. in Achievements & Potential, Renewable Energy World,2000,3(1):94
[34]Solar cell manufacturing capacity expanding fast[J].Renewable Energy World,2000,3(1):8
[35]Aghion, P., Howitt, P.,1998. Endogenous growth theory. MIT Press,Cambridge, MA.
[36]Alsema, E.,2003. Experience curves:lessons from PV technology [J]. Photex Policy Workshop, Amsterdam,14 October 2003.
[37]Coase, R.,1991. The institutional structure of production. In:Essays on Economics and Economists. The University of Chicago Press,Chicago.
[38]Ginn, J., et al.,2003. Photovoltaic as a distributed energy resource. In:PV and Solar Program Review Meeting 2003. NREL/USA.
[39]Grubler, A.,1997. Technology and Global Change. International Institute for Applied Systems Analsysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[40]Harmon, C.,2000. Experience curves of photovoltaic technology. IIASA Interim Report IR-00-014.
[41]Hegedus, S., Okubo, N.,2004. Real BOS and system costs of off-grid PV installations in the US 1987-2004.
[42]IEA,2003. National status report—implementation of PV systems.
[43]Jager-Waldau, A.,2004. PV status report 2004—research, solar cellproduction and market implementation of photovoltaics. European Commission Directorate-General Joint Research Centre.
[44]Kemp, R., et al.,1998. Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: the approach of strategic niche management.Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 10(2),175-195.
[45]Kurokawa, K.,1994. Japanese activities for introducing residential PV systems as a national energy supply. WCPEC,5-9 December 1994.
[46]Nagamatus,A., Watanabe, C., Shum, K.,2004. Diffusion trajectory of self-propagating innovations interacting with institutions—a novel approach in incorporating multi-factors learning function to model photo-voltaics (PV) diffusion in Japan. Energy Policy (in print).
[47]North, D.,1990. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[48]Schaeffer, G.,2003. Experience curve as policy tool-The case of PV.EXCETP-EXTOOL workshop "A tool for energy policy analysis and design", Paris,23 January 2003.
[49]Schaeffer, G., De Moor, H.,2004.Learning in PV trends and future prospects. In:Nineteenth European PV solar energy conference and exhibition, Paris, France,7-11 June 2004.
[50]Shum, K.,2003.The strategic implications of product platform. In:Mass Customization and Personalization Conference 2003.Technical University of Munich.
[51]Shum, K., Watanabe, C.,2004.Product diversification and its management.13th International Conference on Management of Technology, April 3-7,2004.IAMOT, Washington DC, USA.
[52]Smith, A.,2003.Alternative technology niches and sustainable development.ESRC Sustainable Technologies Program Working Paper 2003/2.
[53]Sterzinger, G., Svrcek, M.,2005. Solar PV development:location of economic activity. Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP).
[54]Unruh, G.,2000. Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 28 (12),817-830.
[55]Watanabe, C.,1995a.Identification of the role of renewable energy. Renewable Energy 6 (3), 237-274.
[56]Watanabe, C.,1995b. The role of technology in energy/economic interactions. In:Kaya, Y., Yokobori, K. (Eds.), Environment, Energy and Economy. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York,Paris,1997, pp.199-231.
[57]Watanabe, C., Kondo, R., et al.,2003. Formation of IT features through interaction with institutional systems—empirical evidence of unique epidemic behavior. Technovation 23, 205-219.
[58]Weber, M., Dorda, A.,1999. Strategic niche management:a tool for the market introduction of new transport concepts and technologies. IPTS Report 31.
[59]Wene, C.,2000. Experience curves for energy technology policy, OECD/IEA.
[60]Renewables Summary and Costs Forecasts for Japan Released[J]. Renewable Energy World, 2000,3(2):12
[61]Palz W. PV for the new century-status and prospect for PV in Europe[J]. Renewable Energy World,2000,3(2):24
[62]Sanyo increases its PV production[J]. Renewable Ener-gy World,2000,3(3):14
[63]Japan's Rooftop PV Program Reaches 65MW,17,500Systems in Five years[J]. PV Insider's Report, July,1999. p6.
[64]Turkenburg W. UNDP,UNDESA,WEC,World EnergyAssessment[R], Chapter7,7.4.8 Economic Aspects,June,1999.
[2]吕贝,邱河梅,张宇.太阳能光伏发电产业现状及发展[J].华电技术.2010(1)：73-76.
[3]李英峰,肖莉红,赵明.关于如何发展山东省光伏产业的探讨[J].调研研究信息技术与信息化.2008(3)：8-9.
[4]韦东远.全球太阳能光伏产业发展趋势评述[J].中国科技成果.2009(10)：4-7.
[5]顾列铭.两头在外：中国光伏产业虚火现象[J].长三角.2007[6]：36.
[6]马胜红,许洪华.我国光伏产业发展探讨[J].太阳能.2003(5)：7-10.
[7]戴建军.以技术创新推进光伏产业发展[J].发展研究.2008(7)：39-41.
[8]赵玉文.21世纪我国光伏产业发展战略思考[J].中国工程科学.2001(7)：17-20.
[9]施正荣.中国太阳能光伏产业的发展分析[C].第八届光伏会议论文集.2004：38-42.
[10]周浪,陈昆泉.江西省太阳能光伏产业的发展态势与潜力[J].阳光能源.2008(3)：47-48.
[11]王茂洋,王林.构建光伏产业生态网络的思考——以江西新余为例分析[J].经济问题探索.2009(10)：184-187.
[12]耿亚新,周新生.太阳能光伏产业的理论及发展路径[J].中国软科学.2010(4).
[13]陈建琴,彭迪云,许涵.江西省光伏产业集群发展分析和思考[J].理论导报.2009(4)：21-24.
[14]白生菊.建立“中国光伏产业联盟”推动光伏产业发展[J].中国建设动态(阳光能源).2006(6)：49-50.
[15]黄欢.基于灰色关联分析的光伏产业链浅析[J].商情.2010(8)：71.
[16]周四清,马超群,李林.太阳能光伏产业可持续发展理论研究思考[J].科技进步与政策.2007(7)：89.
[17]李维胜,赵英才.高技术企业发展模式研究[J].中国科技论坛.2006(2)
[18]徐睿.循环经济视角下的太阳能光伏产业发展对策研究[J].辽宁工学院学报.2007(4)：16-18.
[19]胡雪芹.中国光伏产业链发展现状及问题分析[J].总裁.2009(10)：65-66.
[20]李晓刚,中国光伏产业发展战略研究[学位论文],吉林大学,2007年6月。
[21]沈辉,舒碧芬,闻立时.我国太阳能光伏产业的发展机遇与战略对策[J].电池.2005(3)：430-432.
[22]魏启东,王素美,李保庆.蓬勃发展的江苏光伏产业[J].阳光能源.2008(4)：50.
[23]秦凯,聂晶晶.国际金融危机下江苏省光伏产业发展问题研究[J].金融纵横.2010(3)：23-27.
[24]邵学清,陈冰川,徐丽丽.江西省新余光伏产业超常规发展之路[J].中国科技论坛.2010(1)
[25]龚小玮.厦门发展太阳能光伏产业的政策建议[J].厦门特区党校学报.2008(1)：37-38.
[26]吴耀琪.西藏光伏产业发展途径探讨[J].新材料产业.2007(7)：40.
[27]马兵,我国太阳能热水器中小企业竞争战略研究[学位论文],山东大学,2009年3月。
[28]刘贞先,山东桑乐太阳能有限公司竞争战略设计[学位论文],山东大学,2006年4月。
[29]高斌,北京京仪集团太阳能电池硅材料制备设备产品发展战略研究[学位论文],对外经贸大学,2007年10月。[99]李振,余翔,太阳能产业专利发展趋势与专利战略应用,电子知识产权,2008年第2期。
[30]张岩贵,陈晓燕,从日、德、中光伏产业看跨国公司的整合策略[学位论文],国际经济合作,2009年5月
[31]Photovoltaic energy for the new millenium:The US Na-tional Photovoltaics Program Plan [J]. Sun World,2000,24(1):4
[32]Germany's new renewables law is passed[J]. Renew-able Energy World,2000,3(2):8
[33]Jones J. Shell's new solar cell plant opens[J]. in Achievements & Potential, Renewable Energy World,2000,3(1):94
[34]Solar cell manufacturing capacity expanding fast[J].Renewable Energy World,2000,3(1):8
[35]Aghion, P., Howitt, P.,1998. Endogenous growth theory. MIT Press,Cambridge, MA.
[36]Alsema, E.,2003. Experience curves:lessons from PV technology [J]. Photex Policy Workshop, Amsterdam,14 October 2003.
[37]Coase, R.,1991. The institutional structure of production. In:Essays on Economics and Economists. The University of Chicago Press,Chicago.
[38]Ginn, J., et al.,2003. Photovoltaic as a distributed energy resource. In:PV and Solar Program Review Meeting 2003. NREL/USA.
[39]Grubler, A.,1997. Technology and Global Change. International Institute for Applied Systems Analsysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[40]Harmon, C.,2000. Experience curves of photovoltaic technology. IIASA Interim Report IR-00-014.
[41]Hegedus, S., Okubo, N.,2004. Real BOS and system costs of off-grid PV installations in the US 1987-2004.
[42]IEA,2003. National status report—implementation of PV systems.
[43]Jager-Waldau, A.,2004. PV status report 2004—research, solar cellproduction and market implementation of photovoltaics. European Commission Directorate-General Joint Research Centre.
[44]Kemp, R., et al.,1998. Regime shifts to sustainability through processes of niche formation: the approach of strategic niche management.Technology Analysis and Strategic Management 10(2),175-195.
[45]Kurokawa, K.,1994. Japanese activities for introducing residential PV systems as a national energy supply. WCPEC,5-9 December 1994.
[46]Nagamatus,A., Watanabe, C., Shum, K.,2004. Diffusion trajectory of self-propagating innovations interacting with institutions—a novel approach in incorporating multi-factors learning function to model photo-voltaics (PV) diffusion in Japan. Energy Policy (in print).
[47]North, D.,1990. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[48]Schaeffer, G.,2003. Experience curve as policy tool-The case of PV.EXCETP-EXTOOL workshop "A tool for energy policy analysis and design", Paris,23 January 2003.
[49]Schaeffer, G., De Moor, H.,2004.Learning in PV trends and future prospects. In:Nineteenth European PV solar energy conference and exhibition, Paris, France,7-11 June 2004.
[50]Shum, K.,2003.The strategic implications of product platform. In:Mass Customization and Personalization Conference 2003.Technical University of Munich.
[51]Shum, K., Watanabe, C.,2004.Product diversification and its management.13th International Conference on Management of Technology, April 3-7,2004.IAMOT, Washington DC, USA.
[52]Smith, A.,2003.Alternative technology niches and sustainable development.ESRC Sustainable Technologies Program Working Paper 2003/2.
[53]Sterzinger, G., Svrcek, M.,2005. Solar PV development:location of economic activity. Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP).
[54]Unruh, G.,2000. Understanding carbon lock-in. Energy Policy 28 (12),817-830.
[55]Watanabe, C.,1995a.Identification of the role of renewable energy. Renewable Energy 6 (3), 237-274.
[56]Watanabe, C.,1995b. The role of technology in energy/economic interactions. In:Kaya, Y., Yokobori, K. (Eds.), Environment, Energy and Economy. United Nations University Press, Tokyo, New York,Paris,1997, pp.199-231.
[57]Watanabe, C., Kondo, R., et al.,2003. Formation of IT features through interaction with institutional systems—empirical evidence of unique epidemic behavior. Technovation 23, 205-219.
[58]Weber, M., Dorda, A.,1999. Strategic niche management:a tool for the market introduction of new transport concepts and technologies. IPTS Report 31.
[59]Wene, C.,2000. Experience curves for energy technology policy, OECD/IEA.
[60]Renewables Summary and Costs Forecasts for Japan Released[J]. Renewable Energy World, 2000,3(2):12
[61]Palz W. PV for the new century-status and prospect for PV in Europe[J]. Renewable Energy World,2000,3(2):24
[62]Sanyo increases its PV production[J]. Renewable Ener-gy World,2000,3(3):14
[63]Japan's Rooftop PV Program Reaches 65MW,17,500Systems in Five years[J]. PV Insider's Report, July,1999. p6.
[64]Turkenburg W. UNDP,UNDESA,WEC,World EnergyAssessment[R], Chapter7,7.4.8 Economic Aspects,June,1999.