上海张江集电港三期房地产项目中的风险控制问题研究
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摘要
随着我国房地产行业的蓬勃发展,房地产企业和房地产项目越来越多,也为我国国民经济做出了巨大的贡献。房地产行业是一个高投入、高风险的行业,由于房地产项目具有占用资金量大、费用目标高、质量要求高、具有较强的系统性和程序性等特点,导致房地产项目具有较大的风险,因此对于房地产开发企业来说需要做好房地产项目的风险控制工作。
本文首先论述了项目风险管理的理论,包括项目的定义及特点,风险的概念、特征及分类,风险管理的概念,项目风险管理的过程、内容及原则。然后本文介绍了房地产项目风险的识别与分析,介绍了房地产项目的概念及特征,房地产项目风险类别,房地产项目风险识别的方法,房地产项目风险识别的流程,房地产项目风险分析的方式以及房地产项目风险识别与分析的原则。之后,本文进一步论述了房地产项目风险防范的方法与策略,论述了房地产项目风险防范的基本方法,包括风险回避、损失控制、分离风险、风险分散、风险转移、自留风险以及后备措施,提出了房地产项目投资过程和开发过程中风险防范的策略,包括选择合适的投资地区及投资地段,采用低风险的投资方式,选择合理的投资类型,建立完善的风险管理体系,提高财务管理水平,防范财务风险。最后,本文结合上海张江集电港园区三期房地产项目,通过问卷调查、德尔菲法、专家评审会的方法对此房地产项目进行风险的识别、分析,并提出了上海张江集电港房地产项目的风险控制措施。
Along with our country real estate profession's vigorous development, the real estate enterprise and the real estate project are getting more and more, also has made the tremendous contribution for our country national economy. The real estate profession is a high investment, the high risk profession, because the real estate project has takes the funds to be big, the expense goal is high, the quality requirement high, has strong characteristics and so on systematic characteristic and procedural nature, causes the real estate project to have the big risk, therefore needs to complete the real estate project regarding the property development enterprise the risk control work. this article first elaborated project risk management theory, including project definition and characteristic, risk concept, characteristic and classification, risk management concept, project risk management process, content and principle.
Then this article introduced the real estate project risk's recognition and the analysis, introduced the real estate project concept and the characteristic, the real estate project risk category, the real estate project risk recognition method, the real estate project risk recognition flow, the real estate project risk analysis way as well as the real estate project risk recognition and the analysis principle. Afterward, this article further elaborated the real estate project risk guard method and the strategy, elaborated the real estate project risk guard essential method, including the risk evasion, the damage control, separates the risk, the risk to disperse, the risk shift, the personally used risk as well as the reserve measure, proposed in the real estate project investment process and the performance history the risk guard's strategy, and invests the land sector including the choice appropriate investment area, uses the low risk the investment way, chooses the reasonable investment type, establishes the perfect risk management system, raises the financial control level, the guard financial risk. Finally, this article unifies the Zhang Jiang collection electricity port campus three forward delivery housing real estate project, through the questionnaire survey, the Deerfei law, the expert appraisal meeting's method real estate project carries on the risk regarding the recognition, the analysis, and proposed the Zhang Jiang collection electricity port real estate project risk control measure.
本文首先论述了项目风险管理的理论,包括项目的定义及特点,风险的概念、特征及分类,风险管理的概念,项目风险管理的过程、内容及原则。然后本文介绍了房地产项目风险的识别与分析,介绍了房地产项目的概念及特征,房地产项目风险类别,房地产项目风险识别的方法,房地产项目风险识别的流程,房地产项目风险分析的方式以及房地产项目风险识别与分析的原则。之后,本文进一步论述了房地产项目风险防范的方法与策略,论述了房地产项目风险防范的基本方法,包括风险回避、损失控制、分离风险、风险分散、风险转移、自留风险以及后备措施,提出了房地产项目投资过程和开发过程中风险防范的策略,包括选择合适的投资地区及投资地段,采用低风险的投资方式,选择合理的投资类型,建立完善的风险管理体系,提高财务管理水平,防范财务风险。最后,本文结合上海张江集电港园区三期房地产项目,通过问卷调查、德尔菲法、专家评审会的方法对此房地产项目进行风险的识别、分析,并提出了上海张江集电港房地产项目的风险控制措施。
Along with our country real estate profession's vigorous development, the real estate enterprise and the real estate project are getting more and more, also has made the tremendous contribution for our country national economy. The real estate profession is a high investment, the high risk profession, because the real estate project has takes the funds to be big, the expense goal is high, the quality requirement high, has strong characteristics and so on systematic characteristic and procedural nature, causes the real estate project to have the big risk, therefore needs to complete the real estate project regarding the property development enterprise the risk control work. this article first elaborated project risk management theory, including project definition and characteristic, risk concept, characteristic and classification, risk management concept, project risk management process, content and principle.
Then this article introduced the real estate project risk's recognition and the analysis, introduced the real estate project concept and the characteristic, the real estate project risk category, the real estate project risk recognition method, the real estate project risk recognition flow, the real estate project risk analysis way as well as the real estate project risk recognition and the analysis principle. Afterward, this article further elaborated the real estate project risk guard method and the strategy, elaborated the real estate project risk guard essential method, including the risk evasion, the damage control, separates the risk, the risk to disperse, the risk shift, the personally used risk as well as the reserve measure, proposed in the real estate project investment process and the performance history the risk guard's strategy, and invests the land sector including the choice appropriate investment area, uses the low risk the investment way, chooses the reasonable investment type, establishes the perfect risk management system, raises the financial control level, the guard financial risk. Finally, this article unifies the Zhang Jiang collection electricity port campus three forward delivery housing real estate project, through the questionnaire survey, the Deerfei law, the expert appraisal meeting's method real estate project carries on the risk regarding the recognition, the analysis, and proposed the Zhang Jiang collection electricity port real estate project risk control measure.
引文
[1]孙艳.论房地产开发项目全面风险管理[J].现代商贸工业,2008,(08)：78-79
[2]T.Wiliiams, Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition, int. J. Project Management,94, V.12 (1),17-22
[3]S.Simister, Usage and benefits of Project risk analysis and management, Int. J. Project Management,94, V.12 (1),5-8
[4]H.Kuklan, E. Erdem, F. Nasri and M. Paknejad, Project Planning and control:an enhanced PERT network, int. J. Project Management,93, V.11 (2),87-92
[5]J.Berny and P.Townsend, Macrosimulation of project risks—apractical way for ward, Int. J. Project Management,93, V.11 (4),201-208
[6]张明珠.房地产项目开发风险管理研究[D].天津大学,2004：56-57
[7]胡煜.浅谈房地产开发项目的风险管理及防范[J].现代商业,2009,(12)：45-46
[8]周勇.房地产项目开发风险与防范[J].合作经济与科技,2010,(03)：49-50
[9]赵俊德.浅谈国有房地产开发企业经营管理中存在的问题和经营管理创新[J].陕西建筑,2008,(10)：67-69
[10]聂坤.房地产项目风险管理研究[J].科技信息,2009,(05)：17-19
[11]陈锐.浅谈房地产开发项目的风险管理[J].华章,2009,(03)：60-62
[12]曹国斌.工程项目风险管理及对策研究[J].郑州工业高等专科学校学报,2004,(04)：12-13
[13]赵晓鹏.关于房地产项目开发的思考[J].陕西建筑,2007,(11)：60-61
[14]j. Bowers, Data for Project risk analysis, int. j. Project Management,94, V.12 (1),9-16
[15]A.Chateauneuf and M, Cohen, Risk seeking with diminishing marginal utility in a non-expected utility model, j. of Risk & Uncertainty,1994,9,77-91
[16]R.Clarke and A.Low, Risk analysis in project planning:a simple spreadsheet application using Monte—Carlo techniques, Project Appraisal,93, V.8 (3),141 - 146
[17]R. Gareis, Handbook of Management by Prejects, MANZ, Vienna,1990
[18]D. Hertz and H. Thomas, Risk Analysis and its Applictions, John Wiley & Sons, 1983
[19]Y.Hong and G.Apostolakls, Condtional influence diagrams in risk management, Risk Analysis,93, V.12 (6),625-636
[20]J. Raftery, Risk Analysis in Project Management, E & FN SPON, An Imprint of Chapman & Hall, London,1994
[21]J. Turner, The Handbook of Project—based Management, McGraw-Hill Book Company,1993
[22]T. Williams, Risk—managemant, infrastructures, int. J. Project Management, 93, V.11 (1),5-10
[23]J. Yang and D.Du, A method of dynamic risk management in project, The Age of project Management — China and the World, Northwestern Polytechnical University Press, Xi' an,1995
[24]J.Yang and D. Du, Application of fuzzy theory to project risk management,Proceedings of the International Symposium of Industrial Management, international Academy Press,1996
[25]杜端甫,邱菀华,90年代项目管理的新观念新体制,《中国大型工程管理》,华中理工大学出版社,1993
[26]尹贻林,陈通,杨杉,我国项目风险管理的发展趋势,中国软科学,95年第10期81-84
[27]杨建平,杜端甫,投资项目风险管理动态模型研究,《决策科学与应用》,海洋出版社,1996
[28]刘国东.工程项目投资风险管理研究[D].河北农业大学,2005：23-24
[29]刘畅,刘国斌.房地产开发项目风险控制及管理浅析[J].环渤海经济瞭望,2008,(02)：89-90
[30]蒋东丽.房地产开发项目风险管理的探讨与分析[J].今日南国(理论创新版),2009,(04)：47-48
[31]邹伟.浅议房地产开发项目成本控制的关键阶段[J].武汉建设,2006,(03)：45-46
[32]胡晓.武汉房地产投资风险分析——风险价值VaR的应用[J].中南财经政法大学研究生学报,2006,(05)：34-35
[33]许琰.房地产开发与评估专业建设初探[J].中国建设教育,2007,(11)：67-68
[34]陈伟.房地产开发项目的信息化管理探讨[J].前沿,2004,(03)：57-58
[35]李潮欣.企业风险控制的原理分析[J].湖北民族学院学报(哲学社会科学版),2004,(05)：80-82
[2]T.Wiliiams, Using a risk register to integrate risk management in project definition, int. J. Project Management,94, V.12 (1),17-22
[3]S.Simister, Usage and benefits of Project risk analysis and management, Int. J. Project Management,94, V.12 (1),5-8
[4]H.Kuklan, E. Erdem, F. Nasri and M. Paknejad, Project Planning and control:an enhanced PERT network, int. J. Project Management,93, V.11 (2),87-92
[5]J.Berny and P.Townsend, Macrosimulation of project risks—apractical way for ward, Int. J. Project Management,93, V.11 (4),201-208
[6]张明珠.房地产项目开发风险管理研究[D].天津大学,2004：56-57
[7]胡煜.浅谈房地产开发项目的风险管理及防范[J].现代商业,2009,(12)：45-46
[8]周勇.房地产项目开发风险与防范[J].合作经济与科技,2010,(03)：49-50
[9]赵俊德.浅谈国有房地产开发企业经营管理中存在的问题和经营管理创新[J].陕西建筑,2008,(10)：67-69
[10]聂坤.房地产项目风险管理研究[J].科技信息,2009,(05)：17-19
[11]陈锐.浅谈房地产开发项目的风险管理[J].华章,2009,(03)：60-62
[12]曹国斌.工程项目风险管理及对策研究[J].郑州工业高等专科学校学报,2004,(04)：12-13
[13]赵晓鹏.关于房地产项目开发的思考[J].陕西建筑,2007,(11)：60-61
[14]j. Bowers, Data for Project risk analysis, int. j. Project Management,94, V.12 (1),9-16
[15]A.Chateauneuf and M, Cohen, Risk seeking with diminishing marginal utility in a non-expected utility model, j. of Risk & Uncertainty,1994,9,77-91
[16]R.Clarke and A.Low, Risk analysis in project planning:a simple spreadsheet application using Monte—Carlo techniques, Project Appraisal,93, V.8 (3),141 - 146
[17]R. Gareis, Handbook of Management by Prejects, MANZ, Vienna,1990
[18]D. Hertz and H. Thomas, Risk Analysis and its Applictions, John Wiley & Sons, 1983
[19]Y.Hong and G.Apostolakls, Condtional influence diagrams in risk management, Risk Analysis,93, V.12 (6),625-636
[20]J. Raftery, Risk Analysis in Project Management, E & FN SPON, An Imprint of Chapman & Hall, London,1994
[21]J. Turner, The Handbook of Project—based Management, McGraw-Hill Book Company,1993
[22]T. Williams, Risk—managemant, infrastructures, int. J. Project Management, 93, V.11 (1),5-10
[23]J. Yang and D.Du, A method of dynamic risk management in project, The Age of project Management — China and the World, Northwestern Polytechnical University Press, Xi' an,1995
[24]J.Yang and D. Du, Application of fuzzy theory to project risk management,Proceedings of the International Symposium of Industrial Management, international Academy Press,1996
[25]杜端甫,邱菀华,90年代项目管理的新观念新体制,《中国大型工程管理》,华中理工大学出版社,1993
[26]尹贻林,陈通,杨杉,我国项目风险管理的发展趋势,中国软科学,95年第10期81-84
[27]杨建平,杜端甫,投资项目风险管理动态模型研究,《决策科学与应用》,海洋出版社,1996
[28]刘国东.工程项目投资风险管理研究[D].河北农业大学,2005：23-24
[29]刘畅,刘国斌.房地产开发项目风险控制及管理浅析[J].环渤海经济瞭望,2008,(02)：89-90
[30]蒋东丽.房地产开发项目风险管理的探讨与分析[J].今日南国(理论创新版),2009,(04)：47-48
[31]邹伟.浅议房地产开发项目成本控制的关键阶段[J].武汉建设,2006,(03)：45-46
[32]胡晓.武汉房地产投资风险分析——风险价值VaR的应用[J].中南财经政法大学研究生学报,2006,(05)：34-35
[33]许琰.房地产开发与评估专业建设初探[J].中国建设教育,2007,(11)：67-68
[34]陈伟.房地产开发项目的信息化管理探讨[J].前沿,2004,(03)：57-58
[35]李潮欣.企业风险控制的原理分析[J].湖北民族学院学报(哲学社会科学版),2004,(05)：80-82