全要素生产率增长与人力资本效应研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济高速发展,创造了人类经济增长历史上的“奇迹”,令世界瞩目,吸引了众多学者的广泛关注和研究兴趣。作为探寻经济增长源泉和评价经济增长质量的主要工具,全要素生产率很自然地成为被深入讨论的焦点,由此形成了许多具有代表性的研究成果。无疑,这些研究文献对于本论文的进一步研究具有重要的启示和参考价值。然而,本论文并不仅仅停留在有关中国全要素生产率增长核算这一问题上,而是对全要素生产率增长的决定性因素——人力资本的影响效应投以更多的关注。从理论上讲,人力资本作为知识和技术进步的载体,是决定全要素生产率增长最重要因素,它影响全要素生产率增长主要通过两条途径：一是人力资本通过决定一国国内的技术创新,即创造适宜于本国生产的新技术而直接影响生产率增长；二是人力资本会影响一国技术追赶和扩散的速度,从而影响生产率增长(Benhabib and Spiegel,1994)。那么在真实的经济世界里,人力资本与全要素生产率增长之间的关系又是如何呢?人力资本的生产率增长效应究竟还有哪些重要的表现特征呢?对于诸如此类问题的解答,有助于我们更为深刻地理解人力资本对全要素生产率增长的影响效应。
本论文共分七章：第一章对所要研究的问题进行说明；第二章对相关理论和文献资料进行回顾与综述；第三章是实证分析之一,对中国省际全要素生产率增长进行测算与分解；第四、五、六章为实证分析之二,分别从不同角度考察人力资本对全要素生产率增长的影响效应；第七章为本论文的基本结论和政策启示,并对下一步研究方向进行说明。本论文的实证发现主要有以下几点：
第一,全要素生产率增长的分解表明,技术进步支撑了我国全要素生产率增长,而效率增进的贡献不足。从区域上看,各地区的全要素生产率增长在时间模式上的变动趋势基本一致,但始终保持着相当的差距,大体表现为东部>中部>西部梯次下降的特征。
第二,基于Benhabib-Spiegel模型,分别考察人力资本平均水平、人力资本异质性对我国各省份全要素生产率增长的影响。作为模型拓展之一,实证检验人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长之间的关系。结果表明,人力资本对全国整体的全要素生产率增长以及技术进步具有积极影响；不同教育水平人力资本的增长效应存在差异,其中,高等教育的增长效应最大,中等教育次之,小学教育的作用最小且不显著；东、中、西部地区人力资本对全要素生产率增长的作用具有鲜明的区域差异性。此外,基于中国的数据验证了人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,而且这种关系是显著负相关。
第三,在区域经济一体化日益加深的今天,不同地区间的相互影响相互依赖是普遍存在的,基于Spatial Benhabib-Spiegel模型,本论文实证检验了人力资本的空间溢出效应。结果表明,作为整体的人力资本对全要素生产率增长和技术进步具有显著的正向空间溢出,而对效率增进则是负向溢出；分不同教育水平考察,中等教育人力资本对全要素生产率增长和技术进步都具有显著的正向空间溢出,而高等教育则表现出负向空间溢出。
第四,某一地区人力资本效应的发挥离不开该地区特定的经济环境,诸如一地区的经济发展水平、对外开放程度、物质资本积累、基础设施建设以及城市化水平等变量都会在一定程度上影响人力资本的增长效应,而且这种影响表现出一定的门限特征。从结果看,当变量跨越对应的高门槛水平时,人力资本的影响系数较大。那些跨越高门槛水平的省份大多来自东部发达地区,尚未跨越门槛水平的省份则主要来自中部尤其是西部落后地区。
针对以上基本结论,本论文得到几点相应的政策启示：加强人力资本积累,改善人力资本不平等,提高我国整体技术创新和技术吸收能力；重视地区间的经济联动,充分利用人力资本空间溢出效应；重视人力资本与其他经济环境变量的互补匹配关系；建立和发展我国人力资本市场,促进人力资本效应的充分发挥。
Since the reforms and opening-up policies began in the late 1970s, China has experienced miraculously rapid economic growth, which attracting extensive attention and research interests from many scholars. As a main tool for dowsing the growth source and evaluating the quality of economic growth, total factor productivity (TFP) is natural to become the focus of in-depth discussion, resulting in a large number of representative literatures. Undoubtedly, these literatures have provided important inspiration and reference value for us to further study. However, this dissertation does not just limit to the point of estimating and segmenting TFP growth in China, but focus more on the relationship between human capital and TFP growth. Theoretically, as the carrier of knowledge and technology, human capital is the most important factor of TFP growth, it exerts effects on TFP growth mainly through two channels:following Romer (1990), human capital may directly influence productivity by determining the capacity of nations to innovate new technologies suited to domestic production. Furthermore, adapting Nelson and Phelps (1966) model, human capital levels would affect the speed of technological catch-up and diffusion. Then in the real economic world, what difference would make between human capital and TFP growth? And what characteristics of human capital effect show on productivity growth? Obviously, replying to the questions would help to profoundly understand the effects of human capital on productivity growth.
This dissertation has seven chapters. Chapter 1 brings forward the research questions and Chapter 2 reviews the theoretical and empirically literatures. Chapter 3 employs two different methods of DEA and SFA to estimate and segment provincial growth of TFP in China. Chapter 4 to 6 empirically analyzes the effects of human capital on TFP growth from different perspectives. Conclusive remarks and discussions are presented in chapter 7. Overall conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, this dissertation estimates and segments provincial growth of TFP, and the results show that TFP in China is increasing and the main source comes from technology progress. The variations of TFP growth in different regions are consistent with each other, while the eastern region shows the fastest-growing in TFP, the western region is the slowest-growing, and the difference between them is significant and almost constant during recent years.
Secondly, based on the Benhabib-Spiegel model, this dissertation investigates the effects of human capital and human capital heterogeneity on the provincial productivity growth in China (1990-2007). The results show that, country as a whole, human capital has significantly positive impacts on productivity growth and technological progress; primary education, secondary education and higher education exert different effects on TFP growth; while on eastern, central and western regions, the effects of human capital show distinctly different characters. In addition, this dissertation finds that the relationship between human capital inequality and TFP growth shown as significantly negative in the long run.
Thirdly, based on the spatial Benhabib-Spiegel model, this dissertation empirically investigates spatial spillover effects of human capital under the prevailing of regional economic interdependence. The results show that human capital exerts significantly positive spillover effects on TFP growth and technological progress, while negative spillover effects on efficiency improvement. When inspecting different levels of education, we find that secondary education has significantly positive spatial spillover effects on TFP growth and technological progress, while higher education showing negative effects.
Finally, the effects from human capital in a given region are closely related to specifical economic environment, such as economic development, openness of economy, physical capital, infrastructure, and urbanization be sure to go up to play important role on the human capital growth effects, and show threshold characteristics to some extent. From the results of view, those whose economic variable goes beyond a certain threshold value, the effects of human capital on productivity growth will show stronger, and these provinces mainly come from eastern regions, while central and western regions show poor performance.
On the basis of the conclusion above, this dissertation puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions, including strengthening human capital accumulation, optimizing human capital distribution, making full use of human capital spatial spillovers between regions, emphasizing the complementary match between human capital and other economic variables, and promoting the formation of human capital market in China.
本论文共分七章：第一章对所要研究的问题进行说明；第二章对相关理论和文献资料进行回顾与综述；第三章是实证分析之一,对中国省际全要素生产率增长进行测算与分解；第四、五、六章为实证分析之二,分别从不同角度考察人力资本对全要素生产率增长的影响效应；第七章为本论文的基本结论和政策启示,并对下一步研究方向进行说明。本论文的实证发现主要有以下几点：
第一,全要素生产率增长的分解表明,技术进步支撑了我国全要素生产率增长,而效率增进的贡献不足。从区域上看,各地区的全要素生产率增长在时间模式上的变动趋势基本一致,但始终保持着相当的差距,大体表现为东部>中部>西部梯次下降的特征。
第二,基于Benhabib-Spiegel模型,分别考察人力资本平均水平、人力资本异质性对我国各省份全要素生产率增长的影响。作为模型拓展之一,实证检验人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长之间的关系。结果表明,人力资本对全国整体的全要素生产率增长以及技术进步具有积极影响；不同教育水平人力资本的增长效应存在差异,其中,高等教育的增长效应最大,中等教育次之,小学教育的作用最小且不显著；东、中、西部地区人力资本对全要素生产率增长的作用具有鲜明的区域差异性。此外,基于中国的数据验证了人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,而且这种关系是显著负相关。
第三,在区域经济一体化日益加深的今天,不同地区间的相互影响相互依赖是普遍存在的,基于Spatial Benhabib-Spiegel模型,本论文实证检验了人力资本的空间溢出效应。结果表明,作为整体的人力资本对全要素生产率增长和技术进步具有显著的正向空间溢出,而对效率增进则是负向溢出；分不同教育水平考察,中等教育人力资本对全要素生产率增长和技术进步都具有显著的正向空间溢出,而高等教育则表现出负向空间溢出。
第四,某一地区人力资本效应的发挥离不开该地区特定的经济环境,诸如一地区的经济发展水平、对外开放程度、物质资本积累、基础设施建设以及城市化水平等变量都会在一定程度上影响人力资本的增长效应,而且这种影响表现出一定的门限特征。从结果看,当变量跨越对应的高门槛水平时,人力资本的影响系数较大。那些跨越高门槛水平的省份大多来自东部发达地区,尚未跨越门槛水平的省份则主要来自中部尤其是西部落后地区。
针对以上基本结论,本论文得到几点相应的政策启示：加强人力资本积累,改善人力资本不平等,提高我国整体技术创新和技术吸收能力；重视地区间的经济联动,充分利用人力资本空间溢出效应；重视人力资本与其他经济环境变量的互补匹配关系；建立和发展我国人力资本市场,促进人力资本效应的充分发挥。
Since the reforms and opening-up policies began in the late 1970s, China has experienced miraculously rapid economic growth, which attracting extensive attention and research interests from many scholars. As a main tool for dowsing the growth source and evaluating the quality of economic growth, total factor productivity (TFP) is natural to become the focus of in-depth discussion, resulting in a large number of representative literatures. Undoubtedly, these literatures have provided important inspiration and reference value for us to further study. However, this dissertation does not just limit to the point of estimating and segmenting TFP growth in China, but focus more on the relationship between human capital and TFP growth. Theoretically, as the carrier of knowledge and technology, human capital is the most important factor of TFP growth, it exerts effects on TFP growth mainly through two channels:following Romer (1990), human capital may directly influence productivity by determining the capacity of nations to innovate new technologies suited to domestic production. Furthermore, adapting Nelson and Phelps (1966) model, human capital levels would affect the speed of technological catch-up and diffusion. Then in the real economic world, what difference would make between human capital and TFP growth? And what characteristics of human capital effect show on productivity growth? Obviously, replying to the questions would help to profoundly understand the effects of human capital on productivity growth.
This dissertation has seven chapters. Chapter 1 brings forward the research questions and Chapter 2 reviews the theoretical and empirically literatures. Chapter 3 employs two different methods of DEA and SFA to estimate and segment provincial growth of TFP in China. Chapter 4 to 6 empirically analyzes the effects of human capital on TFP growth from different perspectives. Conclusive remarks and discussions are presented in chapter 7. Overall conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, this dissertation estimates and segments provincial growth of TFP, and the results show that TFP in China is increasing and the main source comes from technology progress. The variations of TFP growth in different regions are consistent with each other, while the eastern region shows the fastest-growing in TFP, the western region is the slowest-growing, and the difference between them is significant and almost constant during recent years.
Secondly, based on the Benhabib-Spiegel model, this dissertation investigates the effects of human capital and human capital heterogeneity on the provincial productivity growth in China (1990-2007). The results show that, country as a whole, human capital has significantly positive impacts on productivity growth and technological progress; primary education, secondary education and higher education exert different effects on TFP growth; while on eastern, central and western regions, the effects of human capital show distinctly different characters. In addition, this dissertation finds that the relationship between human capital inequality and TFP growth shown as significantly negative in the long run.
Thirdly, based on the spatial Benhabib-Spiegel model, this dissertation empirically investigates spatial spillover effects of human capital under the prevailing of regional economic interdependence. The results show that human capital exerts significantly positive spillover effects on TFP growth and technological progress, while negative spillover effects on efficiency improvement. When inspecting different levels of education, we find that secondary education has significantly positive spatial spillover effects on TFP growth and technological progress, while higher education showing negative effects.
Finally, the effects from human capital in a given region are closely related to specifical economic environment, such as economic development, openness of economy, physical capital, infrastructure, and urbanization be sure to go up to play important role on the human capital growth effects, and show threshold characteristics to some extent. From the results of view, those whose economic variable goes beyond a certain threshold value, the effects of human capital on productivity growth will show stronger, and these provinces mainly come from eastern regions, while central and western regions show poor performance.
On the basis of the conclusion above, this dissertation puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions, including strengthening human capital accumulation, optimizing human capital distribution, making full use of human capital spatial spillovers between regions, emphasizing the complementary match between human capital and other economic variables, and promoting the formation of human capital market in China.
引文
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②为了行文方便,除非特别说明,下文中凡是出现“生产率”字眼皆表示为全要素生产率。
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② Kumar, S., and Russell, R. Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital deepening:Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence. American Economic Review,2002, (92):527-548.
③郝睿.经济效率与地区平等：中国省际经济增长与差距的实证分析.世界经济文汇,2006(2)：11-29.
④保罗·A·萨缪尔森,威廉·D·诺德豪斯著,高鸿业等译.经济学.北京：中国发展出版社,1992.
⑤有关生产函数法度量全要素生产率增长率的详细论述请进一步参考李京文、钟学义(2007)。
① Aigner, J. and Chu, S. F. On Estimating the Industry Production Function. American Economic Review,1968, (13):568-598.
② Aigner, J., Lovell K. and Schmidt, P. Formulation and Estimation of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models. Journal of Econometric,1977, (6):21-37.
③ Meeusen, W. and Broeck, J. Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Functions with Composed Error. International Economic Review,1977, (18):435-444.
① Kumar, S., and Russell, R. Technological Change, Technological Catch-up, and Capital deepening:Relative Contributions to Growth and Convergence. American Economic Review,2002,(92):527-548.
②西奥多·W·舒尔茨著,吴珠华译.论人力资本投资.北京：北京经济学院出版社,1990.
③李建民.人力资本通论.上海三联书店,1999.
①王金营.人力资本与经济增长——论与实证.北京：中国财政经济出版社,2001.
②根据王金营(2001)的总结,人力资本度量指标大体包括两大类：基于产出的度量方法和基于投入的度量方法。其中,基于产出的度量方法最常用的指标是劳动报酬法,但在实际运用中,由于存在收入也人力资本投入不对应、灰色收入、统计来源等问题,采用这种方法度量方法常常导致对人力资本价值的低估,因此,较少使用；而基于投入的度量方法主要包括：学历指数法、技术等级法、教育经费法、受教育年限法等。
③有关人力资本度量的详细讨论进一步参考：唐纳德·A.R.乔治等著,马春文等译.经济增长研究综述.吉林：长春出版社,2009年版,第2章。
④ Azariadis, C. and Drazen, A. Threshold Externalities in Economic Development. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1990,105(2):501-526.
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②事实上,近些年来出现不少有关技术效率分解的方法,例如Fare and Grosskopf在1996年将其分解为投入偏差、产出偏差和“数量”组分。但本研究主要采用Fare et al. (1994)的分解方法,尽管这种分解方法存在较大的争议(蒂莫西·J·科埃利等,2008)。
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①从以往文献看,关于基期资本存量的估算方法也是仁者见仁,因而估算的结果也就各有差异,本文对基期资本—产出比率取一个中间数值,假定1978年资本存量总额相当于当年国内生产总值的3倍。关于资本—产出比率的具体分析可参考李治国、唐国兴(2003)。
②姚树洁,冯根福,韦开蕾.外商直接投资和经济增长的关系研究.经济研究,2006(12)：35-46.
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①具体的实证案例可参见Battese and Coelli (1995)。
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③选择1991-2007年作为SFA分析的样本期间,恰恰与DEA分析方法的第二子区间契合,这就便于我们比较不同方法测算结果的异同。
①由于制度是有关人们有序关系的集合,包含的内容极其丰富,很难用一个或几个具体变量来全面的表征。然而从经济学一般道理看,所有制是构成经济运行机制的基础(王金营、黄乾,2004)。因此本文采用所有制中非国有投资占比来表征制度变量。
②张焕明.我国经济增长的地区性趋同理论及实证分析.安徽：合肥工业大学出版社,2007.
③关于贸易开放度指标的选取也存在不少争议。到目前为止使用较多的贸易开放度指标包括贸易依存度、实际关税率、外汇黑市交易费用、非关税壁垒、贸易数量限制等。
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③由此可见,地方政府财政支出比重对技术效率产生的负面作用很大,这一结论与已有研究相一致,比如王志刚等(2006)实证研究发现,财政支出占比每上升1%,将导致技术效率下降大约116%。
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②在本章附录,我们提供了DEA测算结果的详细数据(不考虑人力资本作为投入要素)。
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② Pritchett, L. Where has all the Education Gone. World Bank Economic Review,2001, (15):367-391.
①上海能够成为技术领先者(Technology Leader)主要有两个方面的原因：一是从全国各省份人均收入水平排名来看,上海位居第一,是我国经济最为发达的地区；二是从1990-2007年我国生产前沿面的变化情况看,上海一直扮演者最佳实践者的角色,成为推动我国技术进步的急先锋。关于这点,可进一步参考第三章内容。
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①李小平,朱钟棣.国际贸易、R&D溢出和生产率增长.经济研究,2006(2)：31-43.
②许和连,亓朋,祝树金.贸易开放度、人力资本与全要素生产率：基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析.世界经济,2006(12)：3-10.
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④关于贸易开放度指标的选取也存在不少争议。到目前为止使用较多的贸易开放度指标包括贸易依存度、实际关税率、外汇黑市交易费用、非关税壁垒、贸易数量限制等。
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①张焕明.我国经济增长的地区性趋同理论及实证分析.安徽：合肥工业大学出版社,2007：93.
②王志刚,龚六堂,陈玉宇.地区间生产效率与全要素生产率增长率分解.中国社会科学,2006(2)：55-66.
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①Pritchett,L.Where has all the Education Gone.World Bank Economic Review,2001,(15):367-391.
①沈坤荣,耿强.外国直接投资、地区差异与内生经济增长.中国社会科学,2001(5)：82-93.
②罗长远.FDI、国内资本与经济增长.世界经济文汇,2006(4)：27-43.
③许和连,丌朋,祝树金.贸易开放度、人力资本与全要素生产率：基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析.世界经济,2006(12)：3-10.
④何元庆.对外开放与TFP增长：基于中国省际面板数据的经验研究.经济学(季刊),2007,Vol.6.No.4：1127-1142.
①颜鹏飞,王兵.技术效率、技术进步与生产率增长：基于DEA的实证分析.经济研究,2004(12)：55-65.
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④刘海英,赵英才,张纯洪.人力资本“均化”与中国经济增长质量关系研究.管理世界,2004(11)：15-21.
⑤杨俊,李雪松.教育不平等、人力资本积累与经济增长：基于中国的实证研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2007(2)： 37-45.
① Ram. R.Educational Expansion and Schooling Inequality:international evidence and some implications. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1990, (72):266-274.
①Becker, G. S. and Chiswick. B.R. Education and the Distribution of Earnings. American Economic Review, 1966,(56):358-369.
② Psacharopoulous, G. Unequal Access to Education and Income Distribution:An International Comparison. De Economist,1977, (125):383-392.
③ Galor, O. and Tsiddon. T. The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth,1997,2(1):14-93.
④当然,部分研究也得到迥异的结论,比如国内学者杨俊等(2008)基于内生增长理论,构建联立方程组模型,研究教育不平等与收入分配之间关系。结果表明,收入分配差距导致教育不平等,教育不平等的改进却没能促进收入分配差距的改善；教育通过人力资本传导机制与收入分配之间发生联系,但其不会自发形成“教育平等←→收平等”的良性循环。
⑤ Galor,Oded and Joseph Zeira. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies,1993, (60):35-52.
⑥ Benhabib, J. and Rustichini, A. Socail Conflict and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth,1996,1(1):129-146.
⑦杨俊,黄潇,李晓羽.教育不平等与收入分配差距：中国的实证分析.管理世界,2008(1)：3848.
①杨俊,李雪松.教育不平等、人力资本积累与经济增长：基于中国的实证研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2007(2)：37-45.
①陈吕兵.收入不均等影响人力资本积累机制及实证分析.南开经济研究,2008(4)：3345.
①李亚玲,汪戎.人力资本分布结构与区域经济差距.管理世界,2006(12)：42-49.
①Krugman. P. R. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography. Journal of Political Economy,1991, (99): 483-499.
② Fujita M., P. R. Krugman. and A. J. Venables. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions and International Trade. Cambridge. Mass:MIT Press,1999.
③ Lopez-Bazo E:Vaya E. Artis M. Regional Externalities and Growth:Evidence from European Regions. Journal of Regional Science,2004,44 (1):43-73.
④ Rosenthal, S and Strange, W. The Attenuation of Human Capital Externalities. Journal of Urban Economics 2008,64 (2):373-389.
① Olejnick, A. Using the Spatial Autoregressively Distributed Lag Model in Assessing the Regional Convergence of Per-capita Income in the EU25. Papers in Regional Science,2008,87 (3):371-385.
②许多研究文献分别从不同角度强调了与经济活动集聚效应有关的空间外部性(Spatial Externalities)的重要性。尽管这些文献几乎一致地认为集聚经济在解释区域经济增长和产业布局方面起到关键作用,但由于研究侧重点的差异,不同学者就集聚经济为何及如何产生持有不同观点。比如,Jacobs (1969)认为城市的外部性促成集聚经济的产生；Lucas (1988)则认为经济活动在地理空间的集聚是由技术溢出和人力资本的外部性促成了；Krugman (1999)认为是规模报酬递增以及市场干预引起经济活动在地理空间上的集聚。关于集聚经济更详尽的文献综述可参考Hanson(2000)。
③ Adamson, D. W., Clark, D. E. and Partridge, M. D. Do Urban Agglomeration Effects and Household Amenities have a Skill Bias. Journal of Regional Science,2004,44 (2):201-224.
④Valerien O. P, Raymond J. G. M. and Henri L. F. Technological Leadership, Human Capital, and Economic Growth:A Spatial Econometric Analysis for U.S. Counties. Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, No.87/88. Spatial Econometrics, Innovative Networks and Growth,2007:103-124.
⑤ Raul R, Jordi S. and Manuel A. Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Economic Growth in Spain. NBER Working paper,2009.
⑥Rey, S and Janikas, M. Regional Convergence, Inequality and Space. Journal of Economic Geography.2005. 5(2):155-176.
①全国省会城市之间铁路与公路里程数的原始数据来源：《新编实用交通地图册2006》,北京：中国地图出版社,2006年版。
②林光平,龙志和,吴梅.中国地区经济σ-收敛的空间计量实证分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2006(4)：14-21.
①吴玉鸣,李建霞.中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析.地理科学,2006(4)：386-391.
②邓明,钱争鸣.我国省际知识存量、知识生产与知识的空间溢出.数量经济技术经济研究,2009(5)：42-53.
①张宇.FDI技术外溢的地区差异与吸收能力的门限特征.数量经济技术经济研究,2008(1)：28-39.
②交叉乘积项方法在有关吸收能力的研究文献中多有体现。
③ Griliches, Z. Productivity, R&D, and the Data Constraint. American Economic Review,1994, (84):1-23.
④ Coe, D. and Helpman, E. International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review,1995, (5):859-887.
①徐磊,黄凌云.FDI技术溢出及其区域创新能力门槛效应研究.科研管理,2009(2)：16-25.
② Beneito. P. The Innovative Performance of in-House and Contracted R&D in Terms of Patents and Utility Models. Research Policy,2006,35(4):502-517
③杨俊,胡玮,张宗益.国内外R&D溢出与技术创新：对人力资本门槛的检验.中国软科学,2009(3)：31-41.
④Hansen. B. E. Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels:Estimation, Testing, and Inference. Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
⑤连玉君,程建.不同成长机会下资本结构域经营绩效之关系研究.当代经济科学,2006(2)：97-103.
⑥封福育.名义利率与通货膨胀：对我国“费雪效应”的再检验.数量经济技术经济研究,2009(1)：89-98.
① Chan, K..S. Consistency and Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator of a Threshold Autoregressive Model. The Annals of Statistics,1993, (21):520-533.
①Bai, J. Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time. Econometric Theory,1997, (13):315-352.
① Leamer, E. A. Trade Economist's View of U.S. Wage and Globalization. Seminar paper, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Connection,1995.
②赖明勇,许和连,包群.出口贸易与经济增长.上海：L海三联书店,2003.
③Domeland, Dorte. Trade and Human Capital Accumulation:Evidence from U.S. Immigrants. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4144, March 2007.
④余官胜.贸易开放和人力资本形成的非线性关系.财经科学,2009(9)：110-116.
⑤培训方式往往具有多样化：既有现场指导,也有专家讨论会,甚至派往海外接受正规教育。
①郭英,陈飞翔.外商直接投资与发展中国家的人力资本发展.国际经贸探索,2005(4)：77-90.
② Gershenberg,L. The Training and Spread of Managerial Know-how, a Comparative Analysis of Multinational and Other Firms in Kenya. World Development,1987, (15):931-939.
③蔡昉,王德文.外商直接投资与就业.财经论丛,2004(1)：1-13.
④陈浩,刘葆金.外商直接投资对我国人力资本发展的影响分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007(2)：127-130.
①从形式上看,要素之间的互补性体现在生产函数设定的变量关系上,而其互补性的强弱则体现在生产函数设定的参数组合上。关于要素之间“互补效应”概念的进一步理解,町参考云鹤等(2004)。
②云鹤,刘涛,舒元.协调改善、知识增进与经济持续增长.经济学(季刊),2004,Vol.3.No.4：889-903.
①程开明.城市化、技术创新与经济增长.统计研究,2009(5)：40-46.
② Becker, S. and Murphy M. The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1992, CVII(4).
① Yang, X and Borland, J. A Microeconomic Mechanism for Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 1991,(99):460-482.
① Hall, R. and Jones,C. Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999, (114):83-116.
②郑京海.《经济学(季刊)》生产率研究专辑引言。
①李建民.人力资本通论.上海三联书店,1999.
②我们甚至认为,人力资本不平等的影响机制之于人力资本的影响机制可能会更为复杂。因此,构建理论框架,阐述人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长的关系,应该成为这一领域研究者重点关注的问题之一。
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⑤有关生产函数法度量全要素生产率增长率的详细论述请进一步参考李京文、钟学义(2007)。
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②根据王金营(2001)的总结,人力资本度量指标大体包括两大类：基于产出的度量方法和基于投入的度量方法。其中,基于产出的度量方法最常用的指标是劳动报酬法,但在实际运用中,由于存在收入也人力资本投入不对应、灰色收入、统计来源等问题,采用这种方法度量方法常常导致对人力资本价值的低估,因此,较少使用；而基于投入的度量方法主要包括：学历指数法、技术等级法、教育经费法、受教育年限法等。
③有关人力资本度量的详细讨论进一步参考：唐纳德·A.R.乔治等著,马春文等译.经济增长研究综述.吉林：长春出版社,2009年版,第2章。
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①魏下海.贸易开放、人力资本与中国全要素生产率——基于分位数回归方法的经验研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2009(7)：61-72.
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②事实上,近些年来出现不少有关技术效率分解的方法,例如Fare and Grosskopf在1996年将其分解为投入偏差、产出偏差和“数量”组分。但本研究主要采用Fare et al. (1994)的分解方法,尽管这种分解方法存在较大的争议(蒂莫西·J·科埃利等,2008)。
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①从以往文献看,关于基期资本存量的估算方法也是仁者见仁,因而估算的结果也就各有差异,本文对基期资本—产出比率取一个中间数值,假定1978年资本存量总额相当于当年国内生产总值的3倍。关于资本—产出比率的具体分析可参考李治国、唐国兴(2003)。
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③选择1991-2007年作为SFA分析的样本期间,恰恰与DEA分析方法的第二子区间契合,这就便于我们比较不同方法测算结果的异同。
①由于制度是有关人们有序关系的集合,包含的内容极其丰富,很难用一个或几个具体变量来全面的表征。然而从经济学一般道理看,所有制是构成经济运行机制的基础(王金营、黄乾,2004)。因此本文采用所有制中非国有投资占比来表征制度变量。
②张焕明.我国经济增长的地区性趋同理论及实证分析.安徽：合肥工业大学出版社,2007.
③关于贸易开放度指标的选取也存在不少争议。到目前为止使用较多的贸易开放度指标包括贸易依存度、实际关税率、外汇黑市交易费用、非关税壁垒、贸易数量限制等。
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③由此可见,地方政府财政支出比重对技术效率产生的负面作用很大,这一结论与已有研究相一致,比如王志刚等(2006)实证研究发现,财政支出占比每上升1%,将导致技术效率下降大约116%。
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②在本章附录,我们提供了DEA测算结果的详细数据(不考虑人力资本作为投入要素)。
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①上海能够成为技术领先者(Technology Leader)主要有两个方面的原因：一是从全国各省份人均收入水平排名来看,上海位居第一,是我国经济最为发达的地区；二是从1990-2007年我国生产前沿面的变化情况看,上海一直扮演者最佳实践者的角色,成为推动我国技术进步的急先锋。关于这点,可进一步参考第三章内容。
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④关于贸易开放度指标的选取也存在不少争议。到目前为止使用较多的贸易开放度指标包括贸易依存度、实际关税率、外汇黑市交易费用、非关税壁垒、贸易数量限制等。
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②王志刚,龚六堂,陈玉宇.地区间生产效率与全要素生产率增长率分解.中国社会科学,2006(2)：55-66.
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② Glaeser, Edward L. Learning in Cities. Journal of Urban Economics,1999,46(2):254-277. 在较大差异。由于他在测算TFP时采用传统核算方法,假定生产函数为Cobb-Douglas形式,形如Y=Ka(AH)1-a,A即为所要计算的TFP。正如前文所述,不同的生产函数设定会对TFP测算产生影响,进而导致后续实证分析存在偏误,而采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法能有效地避免这种错误,因此基于DEA方法进行的分析显得更具可靠性。
①Pritchett,L.Where has all the Education Gone.World Bank Economic Review,2001,(15):367-391.
①沈坤荣,耿强.外国直接投资、地区差异与内生经济增长.中国社会科学,2001(5)：82-93.
②罗长远.FDI、国内资本与经济增长.世界经济文汇,2006(4)：27-43.
③许和连,丌朋,祝树金.贸易开放度、人力资本与全要素生产率：基于中国省际面板数据的经验分析.世界经济,2006(12)：3-10.
④何元庆.对外开放与TFP增长：基于中国省际面板数据的经验研究.经济学(季刊),2007,Vol.6.No.4：1127-1142.
①颜鹏飞,王兵.技术效率、技术进步与生产率增长：基于DEA的实证分析.经济研究,2004(12)：55-65.
② Young,A. Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in the People's of China During the Reform Period. Journal of Political Economy,2003,111(6):1226-1261.
①姚树洁,冯根福,韦开蕾.外商直接投资和经济增长的关系研究.经济研究,2006(12)：35-46.
① Birdsall,N and Londonno.L. Asset Inequality Matters:An Assessment of the World Bank's Approach to Poverty Reduction. American Economic Review,1997,(87):32-37.
② Thomas, V.,Yan Wang and Xibo Fan. Measuring Education Inequality:Gini Coefficients of Education for 140 Countries,1960-2000. Journal of Education Planning and Administration,2003, (17):5-33.
③Castello,A and Domenech,R. Human Capital In-equality and Economic Growth:Some New Evidence.The Economic Journal,2002, (112):187-200.
④刘海英,赵英才,张纯洪.人力资本“均化”与中国经济增长质量关系研究.管理世界,2004(11)：15-21.
⑤杨俊,李雪松.教育不平等、人力资本积累与经济增长：基于中国的实证研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2007(2)： 37-45.
① Ram. R.Educational Expansion and Schooling Inequality:international evidence and some implications. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1990, (72):266-274.
①Becker, G. S. and Chiswick. B.R. Education and the Distribution of Earnings. American Economic Review, 1966,(56):358-369.
② Psacharopoulous, G. Unequal Access to Education and Income Distribution:An International Comparison. De Economist,1977, (125):383-392.
③ Galor, O. and Tsiddon. T. The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth. Journal of Economic Growth,1997,2(1):14-93.
④当然,部分研究也得到迥异的结论,比如国内学者杨俊等(2008)基于内生增长理论,构建联立方程组模型,研究教育不平等与收入分配之间关系。结果表明,收入分配差距导致教育不平等,教育不平等的改进却没能促进收入分配差距的改善；教育通过人力资本传导机制与收入分配之间发生联系,但其不会自发形成“教育平等←→收平等”的良性循环。
⑤ Galor,Oded and Joseph Zeira. Income Distribution and Macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies,1993, (60):35-52.
⑥ Benhabib, J. and Rustichini, A. Socail Conflict and Growth. Journal of Economic Growth,1996,1(1):129-146.
⑦杨俊,黄潇,李晓羽.教育不平等与收入分配差距：中国的实证分析.管理世界,2008(1)：3848.
①杨俊,李雪松.教育不平等、人力资本积累与经济增长：基于中国的实证研究.数量经济技术经济研究,2007(2)：37-45.
①陈吕兵.收入不均等影响人力资本积累机制及实证分析.南开经济研究,2008(4)：3345.
①李亚玲,汪戎.人力资本分布结构与区域经济差距.管理世界,2006(12)：42-49.
①Krugman. P. R. Increasing Returns and Economic Geography. Journal of Political Economy,1991, (99): 483-499.
② Fujita M., P. R. Krugman. and A. J. Venables. The Spatial Economy:Cities, Regions and International Trade. Cambridge. Mass:MIT Press,1999.
③ Lopez-Bazo E:Vaya E. Artis M. Regional Externalities and Growth:Evidence from European Regions. Journal of Regional Science,2004,44 (1):43-73.
④ Rosenthal, S and Strange, W. The Attenuation of Human Capital Externalities. Journal of Urban Economics 2008,64 (2):373-389.
① Olejnick, A. Using the Spatial Autoregressively Distributed Lag Model in Assessing the Regional Convergence of Per-capita Income in the EU25. Papers in Regional Science,2008,87 (3):371-385.
②许多研究文献分别从不同角度强调了与经济活动集聚效应有关的空间外部性(Spatial Externalities)的重要性。尽管这些文献几乎一致地认为集聚经济在解释区域经济增长和产业布局方面起到关键作用,但由于研究侧重点的差异,不同学者就集聚经济为何及如何产生持有不同观点。比如,Jacobs (1969)认为城市的外部性促成集聚经济的产生；Lucas (1988)则认为经济活动在地理空间的集聚是由技术溢出和人力资本的外部性促成了；Krugman (1999)认为是规模报酬递增以及市场干预引起经济活动在地理空间上的集聚。关于集聚经济更详尽的文献综述可参考Hanson(2000)。
③ Adamson, D. W., Clark, D. E. and Partridge, M. D. Do Urban Agglomeration Effects and Household Amenities have a Skill Bias. Journal of Regional Science,2004,44 (2):201-224.
④Valerien O. P, Raymond J. G. M. and Henri L. F. Technological Leadership, Human Capital, and Economic Growth:A Spatial Econometric Analysis for U.S. Counties. Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, No.87/88. Spatial Econometrics, Innovative Networks and Growth,2007:103-124.
⑤ Raul R, Jordi S. and Manuel A. Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Economic Growth in Spain. NBER Working paper,2009.
⑥Rey, S and Janikas, M. Regional Convergence, Inequality and Space. Journal of Economic Geography.2005. 5(2):155-176.
①全国省会城市之间铁路与公路里程数的原始数据来源：《新编实用交通地图册2006》,北京：中国地图出版社,2006年版。
②林光平,龙志和,吴梅.中国地区经济σ-收敛的空间计量实证分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2006(4)：14-21.
①吴玉鸣,李建霞.中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析.地理科学,2006(4)：386-391.
②邓明,钱争鸣.我国省际知识存量、知识生产与知识的空间溢出.数量经济技术经济研究,2009(5)：42-53.
①张宇.FDI技术外溢的地区差异与吸收能力的门限特征.数量经济技术经济研究,2008(1)：28-39.
②交叉乘积项方法在有关吸收能力的研究文献中多有体现。
③ Griliches, Z. Productivity, R&D, and the Data Constraint. American Economic Review,1994, (84):1-23.
④ Coe, D. and Helpman, E. International R&D Spillovers. European Economic Review,1995, (5):859-887.
①徐磊,黄凌云.FDI技术溢出及其区域创新能力门槛效应研究.科研管理,2009(2)：16-25.
② Beneito. P. The Innovative Performance of in-House and Contracted R&D in Terms of Patents and Utility Models. Research Policy,2006,35(4):502-517
③杨俊,胡玮,张宗益.国内外R&D溢出与技术创新：对人力资本门槛的检验.中国软科学,2009(3)：31-41.
④Hansen. B. E. Threshold Effects in Non-dynamic Panels:Estimation, Testing, and Inference. Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
⑤连玉君,程建.不同成长机会下资本结构域经营绩效之关系研究.当代经济科学,2006(2)：97-103.
⑥封福育.名义利率与通货膨胀：对我国“费雪效应”的再检验.数量经济技术经济研究,2009(1)：89-98.
① Chan, K..S. Consistency and Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator of a Threshold Autoregressive Model. The Annals of Statistics,1993, (21):520-533.
①Bai, J. Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time. Econometric Theory,1997, (13):315-352.
① Leamer, E. A. Trade Economist's View of U.S. Wage and Globalization. Seminar paper, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Connection,1995.
②赖明勇,许和连,包群.出口贸易与经济增长.上海：L海三联书店,2003.
③Domeland, Dorte. Trade and Human Capital Accumulation:Evidence from U.S. Immigrants. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4144, March 2007.
④余官胜.贸易开放和人力资本形成的非线性关系.财经科学,2009(9)：110-116.
⑤培训方式往往具有多样化：既有现场指导,也有专家讨论会,甚至派往海外接受正规教育。
①郭英,陈飞翔.外商直接投资与发展中国家的人力资本发展.国际经贸探索,2005(4)：77-90.
② Gershenberg,L. The Training and Spread of Managerial Know-how, a Comparative Analysis of Multinational and Other Firms in Kenya. World Development,1987, (15):931-939.
③蔡昉,王德文.外商直接投资与就业.财经论丛,2004(1)：1-13.
④陈浩,刘葆金.外商直接投资对我国人力资本发展的影响分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007(2)：127-130.
①从形式上看,要素之间的互补性体现在生产函数设定的变量关系上,而其互补性的强弱则体现在生产函数设定的参数组合上。关于要素之间“互补效应”概念的进一步理解,町参考云鹤等(2004)。
②云鹤,刘涛,舒元.协调改善、知识增进与经济持续增长.经济学(季刊),2004,Vol.3.No.4：889-903.
①程开明.城市化、技术创新与经济增长.统计研究,2009(5)：40-46.
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① Yang, X and Borland, J. A Microeconomic Mechanism for Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 1991,(99):460-482.
① Hall, R. and Jones,C. Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output per Worker than Others. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1999, (114):83-116.
②郑京海.《经济学(季刊)》生产率研究专辑引言。
①李建民.人力资本通论.上海三联书店,1999.
②我们甚至认为,人力资本不平等的影响机制之于人力资本的影响机制可能会更为复杂。因此,构建理论框架,阐述人力资本不平等与全要素生产率增长的关系,应该成为这一领域研究者重点关注的问题之一。
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