金融发展对出口复杂度提升的影响机理与效应研究
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摘要
出口复杂度作为衡量出口品技术含量和生产率的综合概念,为国际贸易研究提供了全新的分析视角,受到国内外学者的广泛关注。随着理论研究与实证检验的丰富和完善,出口复杂度研究也从早期测度方法的构建,延伸至演进动因和影响机理的分析。但现有研究并未注意到,相对滞后的金融发展水平已经成为制约一国出口复杂度提升的重要因素之一。因此,探寻金融发展对出口复杂度提升的影响机理和效应,对促进对外贸易可持续发展有着重要的理论价值与现实意义。
本文在非竞争型投入产出基础上,测算出完全国内增加值系数,并结合Hausmann(2005)模型,剔除出口中进口中间投入品的影响,进而消除国际化大生产下产业内跨国分工所导致的“统计假象”,从而真实反映出一国实际出口复杂度水平。
与此同时,本文构建了金融发展通过金融功能直接影响一国出口复杂度提升的分析框架。并在修订和拓展Chou和Chin(2001),Pagano(1993),Alfaro(2003)等模型的基础上,构建了金融发展通过外商直接投资技术外溢、资本配置效率和人力资本积累三个渠道间接影响出口复杂度提升的分析框架。在上述分析框架基础上,就金融发展的四个维度从跨国和跨区域两个层面进行了实证分析。
研究表明,除了传统的要素禀赋之外,金融发展也是影响一国出口复杂度提升的因素之一。金融发展通过提供融资和资金筹措平台功能、信息不对称下的激励功能直接促进出口复杂度提升。同时金融发展通过影响人力资本流向、资本利用率和东道国技术吸收能力,有效促进人力资本、研发资本和外商直接投资技术外溢的利用,进而间接促进出口复杂度提升。
但金融发展对出口复杂度提升存在“门限”效应。在经济发展的初期.由于金融成本大于金融收益,导致金融发展对出口复杂度的提升效应不显著。当经济发展到一定阶段,金融发展的收益超过了其成本,对出口复杂度提升的作用才显现出来。中国东部和中西部地区分别于2002年和2005年前后跨过“门限”值。
金融发展的不同维度(整体发展水平、规模、效率和结构)对不同产业、不同经济体,不同时间段的出口复杂度提升具有不同效应。从纵向上看,金融规模对出口复杂度的提升效应呈“倒U型”；金融效率对出口复杂度的提升是可持续的正向效应,金融结构对出口复杂度的提升效应是动态的,是随着一国要素禀赋结构和实体经济中产业技术结构的变化而变化。从横向上看,金融规模对发展中国家和低技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著,而金融效率对发达国家和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著。大型银行和股票市场为主导的金融结构对发达国家和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升更有效,而中小银行为主导的金融结构对发展中国家和低技术产业更有效。
中国出口复杂度水平近年来不断提升,且与发达国家之间的差距不断缩小但仍处于世界较低水平,其中高技术产业的差距尤为明显。中国金融的不均衡所导致的金融市场功能弱化和金融效率低下,以及金融发展对研发资本和人力资本积累的间接提升效应不显著,导致了中国出口复杂度落后。(1)从国家层面上看,推动中国出口复杂度提升的主要金融因素是金融规模,且该作用不断加强,而金融结构中信贷期限结构的作用不断减弱,金融效率从负向抑制作用转为正向推动力。但与其他发展中国家的提升效应不同的是,中国出口复杂度提升对金融规模的依赖性更强,而金融效率对中国出口复杂度的提升作用基本未显现。(2)从区域产业层面看,金融发展对中国各区域和产业的出口复杂度提升效应存在着明显差异。金融规模对中西部地区和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著,信贷期限结构对中西部地区和低技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著,而金融效率对东部地区和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著。
基于上述分析结果,本文提出了合理控制金融规模并优化地区金融分布；打破国有金融垄断,提升金融效率；丰富和完善金融中介市场,形成适合中国国情的金融结构；实施区域化的金融发展战略；提高外商直接投资的学习吸收能力,转变人力资本培养方式等五点政策建议。
Export sophistication is an integrated concept of the productivity and the content of exports in technology. It provides a new research angle to the international trade, and has drawn great attention of scholars from home and abroad. With the development of the theory and empirical study, the focus of researches on export sophistication has shifted from its measurement at the early stage to its evolvement motivations and the impact mechanisms. However, the lagged financial development has become one of the main reasons.limiting the improvement of the export sophistication. Therefore, the research on the mechanism and effect of the financial development working on the export sophistication will be meaningful theoretically and practically to the sustainable development of foreign trade.
In order to eliminate the "statistical artifact" emerged under the background of cross-border vertical specialization, we first calculated the complete domestic value-added coefficient with non-competitive input-output method, then combined with the Hausmann Model (2005), and got the real exports sophistication for countries by removing the imported intermediate inputs from the exports.
Furthermore, the study built a theory of the direct effect of financial development acting on the exports sophistication by providing financing and funding platform and incentives under the conditions of asymmetric information. In addition, by revising and expanding models of Chou and Chin(2001),Pagano(1993) and Alfaro(2003), etc., we built three indirect channels of financial development on the exports sophistication: spillovers from FDI, capital allocation and human capital accumulation. Based on the above theories, empirical analysis is delivered from the four dimensions of financial development both in cross-border and domestic cross-provinces level. The results are as follows:
In addition to the traditional factor endowments, financial development is also a factor that affects the improvement of export sophistication of a country. Empirical results show that financial development can improve export sophistication directly by providing direct financing and funding platform, and motivations under information asymmetry. Meanwhile, by affecting the flow of human capital, the rate of capital utilization and the technology absorptive capacity of the host country, financial development can promote the utilization of human capital, R&D capital and the technology spillover of Foreign Direct Investment, thus the export sophistication will be indirectly promoted.
But there exists a "threshold" effect of financial development working on export sophistication. At the beginning of economic development, financial cost is higher than financial profit, which results in the insignificant effect of financial development on the exports sophistication. When the economy is developed to a certain level, financial profit will exceed its costs, and the positive effect of financial development on the export sophistication will show up. Take China for example, the East and the West stepped over the "threshold" around2002and2005respectively.
Different dimensions of financial development (Macro-scale, efficiency and structure) have different effects on the improvement of the exports sophistication in various industries, economies and different periods. Longitudinally, financial scale shows an effect of inverse U shape on the exports sophistication, financial efficiency makes a sustainable positive effect on the exports sophistication, and the financial structure effects dynamicly on the exports sophistication. With the promotion of the factor endowment structure, the industrial and technological structures in real economy as well as the risk characteristics of enterprises and its demand for finance will experience great changes, and the financial structure will also change accordingly. Synchronically, financial scale make a positive effect on the export sophistication of developing countries and low-tech industry, and financial efficiency has positive effect on the export sophistication of developed countries and high-tech industry. Large-size banks and equity-market oriented financial structure is more efficient in developed countries and high-tech industry, while small and medium-size banks oriented financial structure is more efficient for developing countries and low-tech industry.
The export sophistication of China has been rising for years, and the gap between it and that of developed countries is becoming smaller. But it is still at a very low level in the world, especially in the high-tech industry.The unbalance of China's financial development has led to functional weakening of financial market and the low financial efficiency, and the insignificant indirect effects of financial development on the accumulation of R&D capital and human capital resulted in China's lagged export sophistication. At present, it is the financial scale that promotes the improvement of China's export sophistication, and this work has been strengthening, while the effect of credit period structure is weakening, and the effect of financial efficiency has changed from negative inhibition into positive impetus. Different from the other developing countries, improvement of China's export sophistication depends more on financial scale and the effect of financial efficiency has not showed up.There is distinct difference in the effects of financial development on the improvement of exports sophistication to different areas and industries of China. Financial scale makes a positive effect on the export sophistication of mid-west part of China and low-tech industry, and the effect of credit period structure is significant in improving the exports sophistication of mid-west part of China and low-tech industries, while financial efficiency is more significant in the eastern part of China and hi-tech industries.
Based on the above results, the study gives five policy suggestions as follows: Firstly, financial scale should be reasonably controlled and its allocation in different areas of China should be optimized; Secondly, the state-owned financial monopoly should be broken down and the financial efficiency should be enhanced;thirdly, the financial intermediations should be enriched and a financial structure suitable for China should be formed; Implement the regionalized strategy of financial development; Improve the learning capacity and absorbing mor spillovers from FDI; lastly, transfer the training mode in human capital.
本文在非竞争型投入产出基础上,测算出完全国内增加值系数,并结合Hausmann(2005)模型,剔除出口中进口中间投入品的影响,进而消除国际化大生产下产业内跨国分工所导致的“统计假象”,从而真实反映出一国实际出口复杂度水平。
与此同时,本文构建了金融发展通过金融功能直接影响一国出口复杂度提升的分析框架。并在修订和拓展Chou和Chin(2001),Pagano(1993),Alfaro(2003)等模型的基础上,构建了金融发展通过外商直接投资技术外溢、资本配置效率和人力资本积累三个渠道间接影响出口复杂度提升的分析框架。在上述分析框架基础上,就金融发展的四个维度从跨国和跨区域两个层面进行了实证分析。
研究表明,除了传统的要素禀赋之外,金融发展也是影响一国出口复杂度提升的因素之一。金融发展通过提供融资和资金筹措平台功能、信息不对称下的激励功能直接促进出口复杂度提升。同时金融发展通过影响人力资本流向、资本利用率和东道国技术吸收能力,有效促进人力资本、研发资本和外商直接投资技术外溢的利用,进而间接促进出口复杂度提升。
但金融发展对出口复杂度提升存在“门限”效应。在经济发展的初期.由于金融成本大于金融收益,导致金融发展对出口复杂度的提升效应不显著。当经济发展到一定阶段,金融发展的收益超过了其成本,对出口复杂度提升的作用才显现出来。中国东部和中西部地区分别于2002年和2005年前后跨过“门限”值。
金融发展的不同维度(整体发展水平、规模、效率和结构)对不同产业、不同经济体,不同时间段的出口复杂度提升具有不同效应。从纵向上看,金融规模对出口复杂度的提升效应呈“倒U型”；金融效率对出口复杂度的提升是可持续的正向效应,金融结构对出口复杂度的提升效应是动态的,是随着一国要素禀赋结构和实体经济中产业技术结构的变化而变化。从横向上看,金融规模对发展中国家和低技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著,而金融效率对发达国家和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著。大型银行和股票市场为主导的金融结构对发达国家和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升更有效,而中小银行为主导的金融结构对发展中国家和低技术产业更有效。
中国出口复杂度水平近年来不断提升,且与发达国家之间的差距不断缩小但仍处于世界较低水平,其中高技术产业的差距尤为明显。中国金融的不均衡所导致的金融市场功能弱化和金融效率低下,以及金融发展对研发资本和人力资本积累的间接提升效应不显著,导致了中国出口复杂度落后。(1)从国家层面上看,推动中国出口复杂度提升的主要金融因素是金融规模,且该作用不断加强,而金融结构中信贷期限结构的作用不断减弱,金融效率从负向抑制作用转为正向推动力。但与其他发展中国家的提升效应不同的是,中国出口复杂度提升对金融规模的依赖性更强,而金融效率对中国出口复杂度的提升作用基本未显现。(2)从区域产业层面看,金融发展对中国各区域和产业的出口复杂度提升效应存在着明显差异。金融规模对中西部地区和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著,信贷期限结构对中西部地区和低技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著,而金融效率对东部地区和高技术产业出口复杂度的提升效应更显著。
基于上述分析结果,本文提出了合理控制金融规模并优化地区金融分布；打破国有金融垄断,提升金融效率；丰富和完善金融中介市场,形成适合中国国情的金融结构；实施区域化的金融发展战略；提高外商直接投资的学习吸收能力,转变人力资本培养方式等五点政策建议。
Export sophistication is an integrated concept of the productivity and the content of exports in technology. It provides a new research angle to the international trade, and has drawn great attention of scholars from home and abroad. With the development of the theory and empirical study, the focus of researches on export sophistication has shifted from its measurement at the early stage to its evolvement motivations and the impact mechanisms. However, the lagged financial development has become one of the main reasons.limiting the improvement of the export sophistication. Therefore, the research on the mechanism and effect of the financial development working on the export sophistication will be meaningful theoretically and practically to the sustainable development of foreign trade.
In order to eliminate the "statistical artifact" emerged under the background of cross-border vertical specialization, we first calculated the complete domestic value-added coefficient with non-competitive input-output method, then combined with the Hausmann Model (2005), and got the real exports sophistication for countries by removing the imported intermediate inputs from the exports.
Furthermore, the study built a theory of the direct effect of financial development acting on the exports sophistication by providing financing and funding platform and incentives under the conditions of asymmetric information. In addition, by revising and expanding models of Chou and Chin(2001),Pagano(1993) and Alfaro(2003), etc., we built three indirect channels of financial development on the exports sophistication: spillovers from FDI, capital allocation and human capital accumulation. Based on the above theories, empirical analysis is delivered from the four dimensions of financial development both in cross-border and domestic cross-provinces level. The results are as follows:
In addition to the traditional factor endowments, financial development is also a factor that affects the improvement of export sophistication of a country. Empirical results show that financial development can improve export sophistication directly by providing direct financing and funding platform, and motivations under information asymmetry. Meanwhile, by affecting the flow of human capital, the rate of capital utilization and the technology absorptive capacity of the host country, financial development can promote the utilization of human capital, R&D capital and the technology spillover of Foreign Direct Investment, thus the export sophistication will be indirectly promoted.
But there exists a "threshold" effect of financial development working on export sophistication. At the beginning of economic development, financial cost is higher than financial profit, which results in the insignificant effect of financial development on the exports sophistication. When the economy is developed to a certain level, financial profit will exceed its costs, and the positive effect of financial development on the export sophistication will show up. Take China for example, the East and the West stepped over the "threshold" around2002and2005respectively.
Different dimensions of financial development (Macro-scale, efficiency and structure) have different effects on the improvement of the exports sophistication in various industries, economies and different periods. Longitudinally, financial scale shows an effect of inverse U shape on the exports sophistication, financial efficiency makes a sustainable positive effect on the exports sophistication, and the financial structure effects dynamicly on the exports sophistication. With the promotion of the factor endowment structure, the industrial and technological structures in real economy as well as the risk characteristics of enterprises and its demand for finance will experience great changes, and the financial structure will also change accordingly. Synchronically, financial scale make a positive effect on the export sophistication of developing countries and low-tech industry, and financial efficiency has positive effect on the export sophistication of developed countries and high-tech industry. Large-size banks and equity-market oriented financial structure is more efficient in developed countries and high-tech industry, while small and medium-size banks oriented financial structure is more efficient for developing countries and low-tech industry.
The export sophistication of China has been rising for years, and the gap between it and that of developed countries is becoming smaller. But it is still at a very low level in the world, especially in the high-tech industry.The unbalance of China's financial development has led to functional weakening of financial market and the low financial efficiency, and the insignificant indirect effects of financial development on the accumulation of R&D capital and human capital resulted in China's lagged export sophistication. At present, it is the financial scale that promotes the improvement of China's export sophistication, and this work has been strengthening, while the effect of credit period structure is weakening, and the effect of financial efficiency has changed from negative inhibition into positive impetus. Different from the other developing countries, improvement of China's export sophistication depends more on financial scale and the effect of financial efficiency has not showed up.There is distinct difference in the effects of financial development on the improvement of exports sophistication to different areas and industries of China. Financial scale makes a positive effect on the export sophistication of mid-west part of China and low-tech industry, and the effect of credit period structure is significant in improving the exports sophistication of mid-west part of China and low-tech industries, while financial efficiency is more significant in the eastern part of China and hi-tech industries.
Based on the above results, the study gives five policy suggestions as follows: Firstly, financial scale should be reasonably controlled and its allocation in different areas of China should be optimized; Secondly, the state-owned financial monopoly should be broken down and the financial efficiency should be enhanced;thirdly, the financial intermediations should be enriched and a financial structure suitable for China should be formed; Implement the regionalized strategy of financial development; Improve the learning capacity and absorbing mor spillovers from FDI; lastly, transfer the training mode in human capital.
引文
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