人民币汇率动态及其形成机制研究
|
摘要
本文较为系统地研究了人民币汇率动态问题，既有对一般理论或者学说的梳理，又有对理论模型的阐述和扩展，更重要的是利用中国的数据对人民币汇率进行了定量分析。在Obstfeld和Rogoff(1995)提出的新开放宏观经济学框架下，汇率变动主要来源于货币供应量、政府支出和生产力的变动，借此框架分别分析了货币冲击、财政政策冲击对人民币汇率的动态影响，其中货币冲击又细分为外生化货币政策和内生化货币政策，此外，本文进一步分析了人民币汇率变动的经济效应，包括对短期国际资本流动与通货膨胀产生的影响。
（一）粘性价格货币模型由于假设商品市场和资产市场价格调整速度不同，商品价格具有粘性，其在汇率动态研究的应用较为广泛。本文在阐明粘性价格货币模型在我国适用性的基础上，理论上推导人民币汇率超调的传导途径和形成机理，进而对货币政策冲击下的人民币汇率动态进行了实证分析。以往利用VAR模型建模经常出现“价格之谜”悖论，为了对此进行规避，本文使用了符号约束(sign restriction)方法识别向量自回归模型中的货币政策冲击，同时使用基于理论设定的短期约束与之进行比较，以期得到在未预期的货币政策冲击下，人民币汇率动态变化路径，最终得到了人民币汇率是否超调的稳健性结论。
（二）传统的货币类汇率模型均假设货币政策是外生的，但是20世纪80年代中期以来，世界主要发达国家将短期利率作为货币政策操作工具，并使其对通货膨胀和产出缺口做出响应，经检验通常遵循Taylor规则，从而货币政策由内生决定。鉴于此，本文第四章论证了Taylor规则货币政策在中国和美国的适用性，建立了包含中国与美国的两国模型，模型中为两国包含汇率的货币政策反应函数，在此基础上推导出了人民币兑美元实际汇率的决定方程，并且利用动态方法到了模型的定性解。本文利用理论推导出的汇率决定的宏观经济因素建立结构向量自回归模型，与第三章实证研究不同的是，这里使用产出缺口而非产出水平、实际利率而非名义利率，以期得到实际冲击、名义冲击、风险溢价冲击和Taylor规则货币政策冲击对人民币实际汇率的影响。
（三）主流汇率模型(NOEM除外)没有考虑政府部门，考虑到政府支出在经济中的作用凸显，而且国内外关于财政政策冲击对汇率动态影响的研究尚未形成一致的结论，为此本文第五章展开对这一问题的研究。本文首先分析不同理论和学派关于政府支出对汇率影响的不同结论，然后借鉴已有研究建立了两国开放宏观经济模型，在模型中，代表性消费者在私人消费和政府提供的公共物品消费间进行选择，以最大化其未来效用的预期现值。通过当期均衡和跨期均衡解出了政府支出与汇率之间的关系方程，本文通过在得到的关系方程中引入一些假设条件，得到了可用于实证分析的计量模型，利用中国和美国数据分析了中国相对于美国在非贸易品政府消费以及政府消费总量上的相对变化对汇率的影响。根据结论，我国政府在实施扩大内需战略时，要控制由此造成的人民币升值幅度过大，应该增加对非贸易品的政府支出，降低可贸易品的支出。
（四）当汇率传递不完全时，最优货币政策必须考虑汇率波动因素，第六章围绕人民币汇率对价格传递效应展开研究，以期为第四章在货币政策规则中考虑汇率因素提供证据支持。首先利用现有理论模型分析汇率传递的形成机理，考虑了我国外汇市场特质——外汇干预频繁这一条件，利用滚动回归方法得到人民币对消费者物价指数传递率的变化路径，建立非线性模型检验汇率传递率是否发生了结构变化，最后利用“按市场定价”理论讨论了汇率不完全传递的原因，以期经过以上分析得到人民币汇率对物价传递率的变化路径。
（五）由于前文理论与实证分析中均未考虑资本流动因素，本文第七章对此问题进行单独研究，考察了人民币汇率变动与短期国际资本流动的关系。由于在人民币升值预期、国内资产价格飙升等因素的刺激下，尽管我国对短期国际资本流动具有较强的管制，我国跨境资本流动规模近年来增速迅猛、非直接投资净流入显著增加。首先建立VAR模型，并利用其分析了短期国际资本流动对我国外汇市场、货币市场、股票市场和房地产市场的冲击响应及其剧烈程度；另外，利用门限模型，分析了短期国际资本流动在不同变量作为门限变量的情况下，是否具有门限效应。通过以上分析，可以发现短期国际资本流动对不同因素冲击的反应程度与反应形式，以期发现短期国际资本流动的变化规律。
The paper has systematically studied the RMB exchange rate dynamics. There is theoreticalelaboration and the extension of the models. More importantly, we do many empirical researcheson RMB exchange rate. In the new open economy macroeconomics framework of Obstfeld andRogoff (1995), the exchange rate dynamics is determined by monetary policy, governmentspending and productivity. Under this framework, we analyze the impact of monetary policy andfiscal shocks on RMB exchange rate dynamics, where the monetary policy includes theendogenous and exogenous monetary policy. In addition, we study the economic effects of theRMB exchange rate movements, including short-term international capital flows and inflation.
1. Due to the assumption that there is different price adjustment speed between commoditymarkets and asset markets, sticky-price monetary model is widely used in the exchange ratedynamics. This paper clarifies the applicability of sticky-price monetary model in China, on thebasis of which, we derive the pathway and formation mechanism of RMB exchange rateovershooting. And then, we do the empirical research on the impact of monetary policy shock onexchange rate. There is often the price paradox during the VAR modeling process; we use thesign restriction method identifying the monetary policy shock in order to avoid this paradox. Wealso do the similar empirical analysis based on the short-term restriction. Our aim is to find thechange path of RMB exchange rate under the unexpected monetary policy shock.
2. The traditional exchange rate model assumes that monetary policy is exogenous, butsince the mid-1980s, the short-term interest rate became a monetary policy tool in the majordeveloped countries of the world. They adjust the interest rate according to inflation and outputgap. Scholars consider the monetary policy follows the Taylor Rule where the monetary policy isendogenous. In view of this, the fourth chapter of this paper demonstrated the applicability of theTaylor rule of monetary policy in China and the United States. And we derive the decision of realexchange rate of RMB against US dollar. We also derive the macroeconomic factors in theexchange rate determination and use them establish a vector auto-regression model. Thedifference with Chapter3is that we use output gap rather than output level, the real interest raterather than the nominal interest rate. We aim to find the impact of actual shock, nominal shock,risk premium shock and Taylor Rule shock on the real exchange rate of RMB.
3. The mainstream exchange rate models (except NOEM) did not consider governmentdepartment which plays an important role in economy. Also there has not yet formed theconsistent conclusion about the impact of fiscal shocks on exchange rate dynamics. Firstly, this paper analyzes different views of different theory on the impact of fiscal shocks on exchange rate.And then, we draw on the existing research to establish a two-country open macroeconomicmodel, where the representative consumer maximize expected present value of its future utilityby choosing private consumption and government consumption. We get the solution of exchangechange rate and government expenditure by the inter-temporal and intra-temporal equilibrium.And then we introduce some hypothesis in order to get the econometric model by which wecould do the empirical research. Finally, we analyze the impact of relative change in governmentconsumption and government consumption in non-tradables on exchange rate using China’s data.According to the conclusion, government should increase spending on non-tradables during theimplementation strategy of expanding domestic demand in order to avoid the large appreciationof RMB for this reason.
4. The optimal monetary policy must take the exchange rate into account when theexchange rate pass-through is incomplete. We study the exchange rate pass-through to inflationin order to provide the support for that the Taylor Rule model in Chapter4considers theexchange rate. Firstly, we use the existing theoretical models analyzing the formation mechanismof the exchange rate pass-through. And we consider the characteristics of the foreign exchangemarket in China-frequent foreign exchange intervention. We use the rolling regression methodto get the path of the exchange rate pass-through and find if there is structural change in it byestablishing the non-linear model.
5. Because we did not take the capital flow into consideration in the former analysis, wemake a separate study about the relationships between exchange rate and capital flow. Due to theappreciation expectation of RMB, domestic asset price inflation and other factors, theinternational capital flows has a rapid growth in recent years although there is strong control overthe short-term ones in China. Firstly, one VAR model is established. Then it is utilized to analyzethe impulse responses and its intensity degree of short-term international capital flows to China’sforeign exchange market, monetary market, stock market and the real estate market. In addition,we establish a threshold model and analyze the threshold effect under different variables asthreshold variables. Through the above analysis, we can find the degree of response and reactionform of short-term international capital flows on different factors.
（一）粘性价格货币模型由于假设商品市场和资产市场价格调整速度不同，商品价格具有粘性，其在汇率动态研究的应用较为广泛。本文在阐明粘性价格货币模型在我国适用性的基础上，理论上推导人民币汇率超调的传导途径和形成机理，进而对货币政策冲击下的人民币汇率动态进行了实证分析。以往利用VAR模型建模经常出现“价格之谜”悖论，为了对此进行规避，本文使用了符号约束(sign restriction)方法识别向量自回归模型中的货币政策冲击，同时使用基于理论设定的短期约束与之进行比较，以期得到在未预期的货币政策冲击下，人民币汇率动态变化路径，最终得到了人民币汇率是否超调的稳健性结论。
（二）传统的货币类汇率模型均假设货币政策是外生的，但是20世纪80年代中期以来，世界主要发达国家将短期利率作为货币政策操作工具，并使其对通货膨胀和产出缺口做出响应，经检验通常遵循Taylor规则，从而货币政策由内生决定。鉴于此，本文第四章论证了Taylor规则货币政策在中国和美国的适用性，建立了包含中国与美国的两国模型，模型中为两国包含汇率的货币政策反应函数，在此基础上推导出了人民币兑美元实际汇率的决定方程，并且利用动态方法到了模型的定性解。本文利用理论推导出的汇率决定的宏观经济因素建立结构向量自回归模型，与第三章实证研究不同的是，这里使用产出缺口而非产出水平、实际利率而非名义利率，以期得到实际冲击、名义冲击、风险溢价冲击和Taylor规则货币政策冲击对人民币实际汇率的影响。
（三）主流汇率模型(NOEM除外)没有考虑政府部门，考虑到政府支出在经济中的作用凸显，而且国内外关于财政政策冲击对汇率动态影响的研究尚未形成一致的结论，为此本文第五章展开对这一问题的研究。本文首先分析不同理论和学派关于政府支出对汇率影响的不同结论，然后借鉴已有研究建立了两国开放宏观经济模型，在模型中，代表性消费者在私人消费和政府提供的公共物品消费间进行选择，以最大化其未来效用的预期现值。通过当期均衡和跨期均衡解出了政府支出与汇率之间的关系方程，本文通过在得到的关系方程中引入一些假设条件，得到了可用于实证分析的计量模型，利用中国和美国数据分析了中国相对于美国在非贸易品政府消费以及政府消费总量上的相对变化对汇率的影响。根据结论，我国政府在实施扩大内需战略时，要控制由此造成的人民币升值幅度过大，应该增加对非贸易品的政府支出，降低可贸易品的支出。
（四）当汇率传递不完全时，最优货币政策必须考虑汇率波动因素，第六章围绕人民币汇率对价格传递效应展开研究，以期为第四章在货币政策规则中考虑汇率因素提供证据支持。首先利用现有理论模型分析汇率传递的形成机理，考虑了我国外汇市场特质——外汇干预频繁这一条件，利用滚动回归方法得到人民币对消费者物价指数传递率的变化路径，建立非线性模型检验汇率传递率是否发生了结构变化，最后利用“按市场定价”理论讨论了汇率不完全传递的原因，以期经过以上分析得到人民币汇率对物价传递率的变化路径。
（五）由于前文理论与实证分析中均未考虑资本流动因素，本文第七章对此问题进行单独研究，考察了人民币汇率变动与短期国际资本流动的关系。由于在人民币升值预期、国内资产价格飙升等因素的刺激下，尽管我国对短期国际资本流动具有较强的管制，我国跨境资本流动规模近年来增速迅猛、非直接投资净流入显著增加。首先建立VAR模型，并利用其分析了短期国际资本流动对我国外汇市场、货币市场、股票市场和房地产市场的冲击响应及其剧烈程度；另外，利用门限模型，分析了短期国际资本流动在不同变量作为门限变量的情况下，是否具有门限效应。通过以上分析，可以发现短期国际资本流动对不同因素冲击的反应程度与反应形式，以期发现短期国际资本流动的变化规律。
The paper has systematically studied the RMB exchange rate dynamics. There is theoreticalelaboration and the extension of the models. More importantly, we do many empirical researcheson RMB exchange rate. In the new open economy macroeconomics framework of Obstfeld andRogoff (1995), the exchange rate dynamics is determined by monetary policy, governmentspending and productivity. Under this framework, we analyze the impact of monetary policy andfiscal shocks on RMB exchange rate dynamics, where the monetary policy includes theendogenous and exogenous monetary policy. In addition, we study the economic effects of theRMB exchange rate movements, including short-term international capital flows and inflation.
1. Due to the assumption that there is different price adjustment speed between commoditymarkets and asset markets, sticky-price monetary model is widely used in the exchange ratedynamics. This paper clarifies the applicability of sticky-price monetary model in China, on thebasis of which, we derive the pathway and formation mechanism of RMB exchange rateovershooting. And then, we do the empirical research on the impact of monetary policy shock onexchange rate. There is often the price paradox during the VAR modeling process; we use thesign restriction method identifying the monetary policy shock in order to avoid this paradox. Wealso do the similar empirical analysis based on the short-term restriction. Our aim is to find thechange path of RMB exchange rate under the unexpected monetary policy shock.
2. The traditional exchange rate model assumes that monetary policy is exogenous, butsince the mid-1980s, the short-term interest rate became a monetary policy tool in the majordeveloped countries of the world. They adjust the interest rate according to inflation and outputgap. Scholars consider the monetary policy follows the Taylor Rule where the monetary policy isendogenous. In view of this, the fourth chapter of this paper demonstrated the applicability of theTaylor rule of monetary policy in China and the United States. And we derive the decision of realexchange rate of RMB against US dollar. We also derive the macroeconomic factors in theexchange rate determination and use them establish a vector auto-regression model. Thedifference with Chapter3is that we use output gap rather than output level, the real interest raterather than the nominal interest rate. We aim to find the impact of actual shock, nominal shock,risk premium shock and Taylor Rule shock on the real exchange rate of RMB.
3. The mainstream exchange rate models (except NOEM) did not consider governmentdepartment which plays an important role in economy. Also there has not yet formed theconsistent conclusion about the impact of fiscal shocks on exchange rate dynamics. Firstly, this paper analyzes different views of different theory on the impact of fiscal shocks on exchange rate.And then, we draw on the existing research to establish a two-country open macroeconomicmodel, where the representative consumer maximize expected present value of its future utilityby choosing private consumption and government consumption. We get the solution of exchangechange rate and government expenditure by the inter-temporal and intra-temporal equilibrium.And then we introduce some hypothesis in order to get the econometric model by which wecould do the empirical research. Finally, we analyze the impact of relative change in governmentconsumption and government consumption in non-tradables on exchange rate using China’s data.According to the conclusion, government should increase spending on non-tradables during theimplementation strategy of expanding domestic demand in order to avoid the large appreciationof RMB for this reason.
4. The optimal monetary policy must take the exchange rate into account when theexchange rate pass-through is incomplete. We study the exchange rate pass-through to inflationin order to provide the support for that the Taylor Rule model in Chapter4considers theexchange rate. Firstly, we use the existing theoretical models analyzing the formation mechanismof the exchange rate pass-through. And we consider the characteristics of the foreign exchangemarket in China-frequent foreign exchange intervention. We use the rolling regression methodto get the path of the exchange rate pass-through and find if there is structural change in it byestablishing the non-linear model.
5. Because we did not take the capital flow into consideration in the former analysis, wemake a separate study about the relationships between exchange rate and capital flow. Due to theappreciation expectation of RMB, domestic asset price inflation and other factors, theinternational capital flows has a rapid growth in recent years although there is strong control overthe short-term ones in China. Firstly, one VAR model is established. Then it is utilized to analyzethe impulse responses and its intensity degree of short-term international capital flows to China’sforeign exchange market, monetary market, stock market and the real estate market. In addition,we establish a threshold model and analyze the threshold effect under different variables asthreshold variables. Through the above analysis, we can find the degree of response and reactionform of short-term international capital flows on different factors.
引文
[1](美)罗伯特·M·索洛，(美)约翰·B·泰勒，(美)本杰明·M·弗里德曼.通货膨胀、失业与货币政策[M].北京:张晓晶,李永军译,中国人民大学出版社,2002.
[2](美)莫瑞斯·奥博斯特菲尔德,肯尼斯·罗格夫.国际宏观经济学基础[M].刘红忠等译,中国金融出版社,2010.
[3](英)露西沃·萨诺,马克·P.泰勒.汇率经济学[M].何泽荣等译,西南财经大学出版社,2006.
[4]卞志村.泰勒规则的实证问题及在中国的检验[J].金融研究,2006(8):56-69.
[5]曹伟,罗浩,邓升军.人民币汇率传递对我国物价水平影响的实证分析:2005~2008[J].世界经济研究,2009(4):25-31+87-88.
[6]陈浪南,陈云.人民币汇率、资产价格与短期国际资本流动[J].经济管理,2009(1):1-6.
[7]陈学彬等.中国国际资本流入的影响因素实证分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(12):53-60.
[8]陈雨露.国际资本流动的经济分析[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1997.
[9]陈雨露,边卫红.开放经济中的货币政策操作目标理论——纳入汇率因素的货币状况指数(MCI)[J].国际金融研究,2003(10):18-25.
[10]邓创,李玉梅,孙皓.基于自然利率对我国货币政策反应函数的实证分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2009,49(3):152-158.
[11]邓创,石柱鲜.泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数——基于潜在产出,自然利率与均衡汇率的研究[J].当代财经,2011(1):64-73.
[12]范从来.论国际资本流动的货币冲击效应[J].经济社会体制比较,2003(4):76-82+129.
[13]方福前,吴江.三类冲击与人民币实际汇率波动[J].财贸经济,2009(12):38-44.
[14]封北麟.汇率传递效应与宏观经济冲击对通货膨胀的影响分析[J].世界经济研究,2006,12:45-51.
[15]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模——Eviews应用与实例[M].清华大学出版社,2006.
[16]胡晓炼.解读人民币汇率政策[M].中国报道,2010(11):84-85.
[17]黄寿峰,陈浪南,黄榆舒.人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应:多结构变化协整回归分析[J].国际金融研究,2011,4:47-55.
[18]姜波克.人民币均衡汇率问题研究:中国经济增长的汇率条件.理论、方法、技术、指标[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011.
[19]金洪飞,李子奈.资本流动与货币危机[J].金融研究,2001(12):43-50.
[20]经济增长前沿课题组.国际资本流动、经济扭曲与宏观稳定——当前经济增长态势分析[J].经济研究,2005(4):4-16.
[21]李广众.政府支出与居民消费:替代还是互补[J].世界经济,2005(5):38-45.
[22]李颖,栾培强.人民币汇率传导效果的动态趋势及影响因素分析[J].经济科学,2010(4):78-85.
[23]刘斌.货币政策冲击的识别及我国货币政策有效性的实证分析[J].金融研究,2001(7):1-9.
[24]刘立达.中国国际资本流入的影响因素分析[J],金融研究,2007(3):62-70.
[25]刘元春,阎文涛.汇率与泰勒规则——基于中国案例的分析[C].中国人民大学工作论文,2012.
[26]卢锋,刘鎏.我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较(1978-2005)——巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应与人民币实际汇率关系的重新考察[J].经济学(季刊),2007(2):357-380.
[27]吕剑.人民币汇率变动对国内物价传递效应的实证分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(8):53-61.
[28]马明和,王宇伟.转型经济背景下我国货币迷失、非FDI资本流动与人民币汇率问题[J],管理世界,2005(15):22-29.
[29]倪克勤,曹伟.人民币汇率变动的不完全传递研究:理论及实证[J].金融研究,2009(6):44-59.
[30]潘锡泉,项后军.人民币升值能够有效抑制通货膨胀吗?——基于内生结构突变协整方法的汇率传递视角[J].国际金融研究,2010(12):13-20.
[31]盛松成,吴培.中国货币政策的二元传导机制[J],经济研究,2008(8):37-50.
[32]石柱鲜,孙皓,邓创. Taylor规则在我国货币政策中的实证检验——基于时变隐性通货膨胀目标的新证据[J].当代财经,2009(12):43-48.
[33]宋勃,高波.国际资本流动对房地产价格的影响——基于我国的实证检验（1998-2006年）[J].财经问题研究,2007(3):55-61.
[34]孙锋等.货币冲击下的实际汇率波动:一个分析框架[J].世界经济文汇,2001(6):29-33.
[35]唐东波.实际有效汇率、财政赤字与中国经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(7):3-17.
[36]唐旭,钱士春.相对劳动生产率变动对人民币实际汇率的影响分析——哈罗德-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应实证研究[J].金融研究,2007(5):1-14.
[37]田素华,徐明东.国际资本流动对东道国货币政策的抵消效应——基于四种国际资本流动形式的讨论[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(12):70-86.
[38]王爱俭,林楠.人民币名义汇率与利率的互动关系研究[J].经济研究,2007(10):56-67.
[39]王建国.泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1):43-49.
[40]王晋斌,李南.中国汇率传递效应的实证分析[J].经济研究,2009(4):17-27.
[41]王琦.关于我国国际资本流动影响因素计量模型的构建和分析[J].国际金融研究,2006(6):64-69.
[42]王世华,何帆.中国的短期国际资本流动：现状、流动途径和影响因素[J].世界经济,2007(7):12-19.
[43]肖奎喜,徐世长.广义泰勒规则与中央银行货币政策反应函数估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011,28(5):125-138.
[44]谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究,2002(3):3-12.
[45]杨绍基.我国银行间债券回购利率影响因素的实证研究[J].南方金融,2005(8):30-33.
[46]杨胜刚,刘宗华.国际资本流动对中国货币供给的影响及政策分析[J].世界经济,2001(6):61-66.
[47]杨宇俊,门明,李伟平.人民币汇率变动对国内价格的传递效应[J].山西财经大学学报,2009(2):40-46.
[48]殷德生.政府支出与均衡实际汇率[J].世界经济,2004(1):23-28.
[49]张纯威.人民币升值抑制通胀效应的实证检验[J].财贸经济,2008(7):63-68.
[50]张鹤等.货币政策透明度与反通货膨胀[J].经济研究,2009(7):55-64.
[51]张屹山,孔灵柱.基于权力范式的汇率决定研究[J].经济研究,2010(3):104-113.
[52]张屹山,张代强.包含货币因素的利率规则及其在我国的实证检验[J].经济研究,2008(12):65-74.
[53]郑挺国,刘金全.区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策的应用[J].经济研究,2010(3):40-52.
[54]郑挺国,王霞.泰勒规则的实时分析及其在我国货币政策中的适用性[J].金融研究,2011(8):31-46.
[55]中国人民银行金融研究所.人民币汇率形成机制改革进程回顾与展望[J].西部金融，2011(11):4-5+14.
[56]周小川.人民币资本项目可兑换的前景和路径[J].金融研究,2012(1):1-19.
[57] Aarón Tornell, Andrés Velasco. The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: WhyDoes Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(6):1208-1231.
[58] AL-ABRI A S, GOODWIN B K. Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into importprices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration [J]. InternationalReview of Economics&Finance,2009,18(1):142-161.
[59] Alexander, S.S. Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance [J]. International Monetary FundStaff Papers,1952,2:263–278.
[60] Alfaro.L, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Vadym Volosovych. Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Richto Poor Countries: An Empirical Investigation [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2008,90(2):347-368.
[61] Amato J D, Laubach T. The value of interest rate smoothing: how the private sector helps theFederal Reserve [J]. Economic review-federal reserve bank of Kansas City,1999,84:47-64.
[62] Angel J R P, Stockman H S. Optical and infrared polarization of active extragalactic objects[J]. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics,1980,18:321-361.
[63] Argy, V., P. J. K. Kouri. Sterilization policies and the Volatility in International Reserves [J].In: R.Z. Aliber, ed. National Monetary Policies and the International Financial System,Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1974.
[64] Ashburner M, Ball C A, Blake J A, et al. Gene Ontology: tool for the unification of biology[J]. Nature genetics,2000,25(1):25-29.
[65] Bacchetta P, Van Wincoop E. Incomplete information processing: A solution to the forwarddiscount puzzle [J]. Available at SSRN1004808,2006.
[66] Balassa B. The purchasing-power parity doctrine: a reappraisal [J]. The Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1964,72(6):584-596.
[67] BALDWIN R E. Hysteresis in import prices: the beachhead effect [J]. NBER Working Paper,1988, w2545.
[68] Ball L. Efficient rules for monetary policy [J]. International Finance,1999,2(1):63-83.
[69] Balvers R J, Bergstrand J H. Equilibrium real exchange rates: closed-form theoreticalsolutions and some empirical evidence [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1997,16(3):345-366.
[70] Balvers R J, Bergstrand J H. Government expenditure and equilibrium real exchange rates [J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2002,21(5):667-692.
[71] Balvers R J, H Bergstrand J. Equilibrium real exchange rates: closed-form theoreticalsolutions and some empirical evidence [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1997,16(3):345-366.
[72] BANERJEE A, DOLADO J J, HENDRY D F, et al. Exploring equilibrium relationships ineconometrics through static models: some montecarlo evidence [J]. Oxford Bulletin ofEconomics and Statistics,1986,48(3):253-277.
[73] Baxter, Marianne, Alan Stockman. Business Cycles and the Exchange-Rate Regime: SomeInternational Evidence [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23:377-400.
[74] Baxter, Marianne. Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Differentials: Have We Missed theBusiness Cycle Relationship?[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1984,33:5-37.
[75] Beetsma R, Giuliodori M, Klaassen F. The effects of public spending shocks on tradebalances and budget deficits in the European Union [J]. Journal of the European EconomicAssociation,2008,6(2-3):414-423.
[76] Benigno G. Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules [J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,2004,51(3):473-502.
[77] Berkowitz J, Giorgianni L. Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?[J]. Review ofEconomics and Statistics,2001,83(1):81-91.
[78] Bernanke, B.S., Mihov, I. Measuring Monetary Policy [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economic,1998,113(3):869-902.
[79] BETTS C M, KEHOE T J. Tradability of goods and real exchange rate fluctuations [J].Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report,2001.
[80] BETTS C, DEVEREUX M B. The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market [J].European Economic Review,1996,40(3):1007-1021.
[81] Betts, C., Devereux, M. Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Model of Pricing-to-Market [J].Journal of International Economics,2000,50(1):215-244.
[82] Bhagwati J N. Protectionism [M]. The MIT Press,1988.
[83] Bilson J F O. The monetary approach to the exchange rate: some empirical evidence [J]. IMFStaff Papers,1978,25(1):48-75.
[84] Blanchard, O. J.and C.M.Kahn. The Solution of Linear Difference Equations under RationalExpectations [J]. Econcmetrica,1980,48:1305-1313.
[85] Branson W H. Financial capital flows in the US balance of payments [M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Company,1968.
[86] BROZ J L, FRIEDEN J A. The political economy of international monetary relations [J].Annual Review of Political Science,2001,4(1):317-343.
[87] Bruce E. Hansen. Inference When a Nuisance Parameters is not Identified under the NullHypothesis [J]. Econometrica,1996,64(2):413-430.
[88] Bruce E. Hansen. Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation [J]. Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.
[89] Buiter W H, Miller M. Monetary policy and international competitiveness: the problems ofadjustment [J]. Oxford Economic Papers,1981,33:143-175.
[90] Bullard, James, Kaushik Mitra. Learning about Monetary Policy Rules [J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,2002,49(6):1105-1129.
[91] BURSTEIN A, EICHENBAUM M, REBELO S. Why are rates of inflation so low after largedevaluations?[J]. NBER Working Paper,2002.
[92] Calvo, Guillermo A. Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets: Large CapitalInflows and Sovereign Governments [J]. In Paul Krugman (editor) Currency Crises, Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000.
[93] Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, Carmen Reinhart. Capital Inflows and RealExchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors [J]. IMF StaffPapers,1993,40(1):108-151.
[94] CAMPA J, GOLDBERG L. Exchange rate pass-through: A macro or micro phenomenon.NBER Working Paper [J].2002.
[95] Campbell, John Y., and Richard Clarida. The Dollar and Real Interest Rates [J]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1987,27:103-39.
[96] Canova, F., G. De Nicoló. Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G7[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2002,49:1131-1159.
[97] CASTELNUOVO E. Taylor rules and interest rate smoothing in the euro area [J]. TheManchester School,2007,75(1):1-16.
[98] Charles P. Kindelberger. International Short-term Capital Movement [M]. New York:Columbia University Press,1937.
[99] CHINN M, JOHNSTON L. Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks:evidence from a panel of14countries [J]. NBER Working Papers,1996.
[100] Chinn M, Johnston L. Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks:evidence from a panel of14countries[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,1996.
[101] Christian Saborowski. Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Can FinancialDevelopment Cure the Dutch Disease?[J]. IMF Working Paper, IMF/09/20,2009.
[102] Christiano L J, Eichenbaum M, Evans C L. Monetary policy shocks: What have welearned and to what end?[J]. Handbook of macroeconomics,1999,1:65-148.
[103] Chung H, Davig T, Leeper E M. Monetary and fiscal policy switching [J]. Journal ofMoney, Credit and Banking,2007,39(4):809-842.
[104] Clarida R H, Taylor M P. The term structure of forward exchange premiums and theforecastability of spot exchange rates: correcting the errors [J]. Review of Economics andStatistics,1997,79(3):353-361.
[105] Clarida R H, Waldman D. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?And, If So, Can That Tell Us Anything about the Conduct of Monetary Policy?[M]. AssetPrices and Monetary Policy. University of Chicago Press,2008:371-396.
[106] Clarida R, Gali J, Gertler M. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability:evidence and some theory [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2000,115(1):147-180.
[107] Clarida R, Gal J, Gertler M. Monetary policy rules in practice: some internationalevidence [J]. European economic review,1998,42(6):1033-1067.
[108] Clarida R, Gali J. Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominalshocks?[C]. Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy,1994,41:1-56.
[109] De Gregorio J, Giovannini A, Wolf H C. International evidence on tradables andnontradables inflation [J]. European Economic Review,1994,38(6):1225-1244.
[110] DEVEREUX M B, YETMAN J. Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through [J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2010,29(1):181-200.
[111] DEVEREUX M, ENGEL C. The optimal choice of exchange-rate regime: price-settingrules and internationalized production [J]. NBER Working Paper,1999, w6992.
[112] Dixit A. Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty [J]. Journal of political Economy,1989:620-638.
[113] Dornbusch R, Branson W H, Kenen P, et al. Exchange rate economics: where do westand?[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1980,1980(1):143-205.
[114] Dornbusch R. Exchange rates and prices [J]. American Economic Review,1987,77(1):93-106.
[115] Dornbusch R. Expectations and exchange rate dynamics [J]. The Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1976,84(6):1161-1176.
[116] Dornbusch S M, Carlsmith J M, Duncan P D, et al. Sexual maturation, social class, andthe desire to be thin among adolescent females[J]. Journal of Developmental&Behavioral Pediatrics,1984,5(6):308-314.
[117] Dornbusch, R. Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand [J]? Brookings Papers onEconomic Activity,1980,1:143–185.
[118] Edison H J, Pauls B D. A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange ratesand real interest rates:1974–1990[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,31(2):165-187.
[119] Eggertsson G B, Woodford M. Zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2003,2003(1):139-233.
[120] Eichenbaum M, Evans C L. Some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetarypolicy on exchange rates [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(4):975-1009.
[121] Eichenbaum, M. Comments on ‘Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: TheEffects of Monetary Policy: by Christopher Sims’[J]. European Economic Review,1992,36(5):1001-1011.
[122] Engel C, Mark N C, West K D. Exchange rate models are not as bad as you think[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,2007.
[123] Engel C, West K D. West. Accounting For Exchange-Rate Variability in Present-ValueModels When Discount Factor Is Nearly One [J]. American Economic Review,2004,94:119-125.
[124] Engel, Charles, James D. Hamilton. Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data andDo Markets Know It?[J]. American Economic Review,1990,80:689-713.
[125] Engel, Charles, Kenneth D. West. Taylor Rules and the Deutschemark-Dollar RealExchange Rate [J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,2006,38:1175-1194.
[126] Evans G W, Honkapohja S. Learning and expectations in macroeconomics [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001.
[127] Evans M D D, Lyons R K. A new micro model of exchange rate dynamics [R]. NationalBureau of Economic Research,2004.
[128] Faust J, Rogers J H. Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior [J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,2003,50(7):1403-1424.
[129] Faust J. The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money [C]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. North-Holland,1998,49:207-244.
[130] FEENSTRA R C. Estimating the effects of trade policy [J]. Handbook of internationaleconomics,1995,3:1553-1595.
[131] Fleming J M. Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating ExchangeRates [J]. Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund,1962:369-380.
[132] Fleming, J.M. Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating ExchangeRates [J]. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,1962,9:369–380.
[133] Flood R P, Rose A K. Fixing exchange rates a virtual quest for fundamentals [J]. Journalof Monetary Economics,1995,36(1):3-37.
[134] Flood R P, Rose A K. Understanding exchange rate volatility without the contrivance ofmacroeconomics [J]. The Economic Journal,1999,109(459):660-672.
[135] Frankel J A. Mundell-Fleming lecture: contractionary currency crashes in developingcountries [J]. IMF Staff Papers,2005:149-192.
[136] Frankel J A. On the mark: A theory of floating exchange rates based on real interestdifferentials [J]. The American Economic Review,1979,69(4):610-622.
[137] Frankel J A. The dazzling dollar [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1985,1985(1):199-217.
[138] Frankel J. Contractionary currency crashes in developing countries [J]. NBER WorkingPaper,2005(w11508).
[139] Frankel, J., A. K. Rose. Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates [J]. In G. M.Grossman and K. Rogoff (Eds), Handbook of International Economics,1995,3:1689-1729.
[140] Frenkel J A, Razin A, Yuen C W. Fiscal policies and growth in the world economy [M].MIT press,1996.
[141] Frenkel J A. A monetary approach to the exchange rate: doctrinal aspects and empiricalevidence [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of economics,1976:200-224.
[142] Frenkel J A. Purchasing power parity: doctrinal perspective and evidence from the1920s[J]. Journal of International Economics,1978,8(2):169-191.
[143] FRIEDEN J, BROZ L, WEINGAST B, et al. The political economy of exchange rates [J].Oxford Handbook of Political Economy,2006.
[144] Froot K A, Klemperer P.D. Exchange rate pass-through when market share matters [J].The American Economic Review,1989:637-654.
[145] Froot K A, Rogoff K. Government consumption and the real exchange rate: The empiricalevidence [J]. Unpublished Manuscript, Harvard Business School. August,1991.
[146] Froot K A, Rogoff K. The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency [M].NBER Macroeconomics Annual1991, Volume6. MIT Press,1991:269-328.
[147] Fuentes M. Pass-through to import prices: evidence from developing countries [M].Universidad Católica de Chile, Instituto de Economía,2007.
[148] Gagnon J E, Ihrig J. Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through [J]. InternationalJournal of Finance&Economics,2004,9(4):315-338.
[149] G rtner M. Macroeconomics under flexible exchange rates [M]. Harvester Wheatsheaf,1993.
[150] Gerlach S, Schnabel G. The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area [J]. EconomicsLetters,2000,67(2):165-171.
[151] Ghosh A, Wolf H. Pricing in international markets: lessons from the economist [J]. NBERWorking Paper,1994(w4806).
[152] Granger C W J, Terasvirta T. Modeling Nonlinear Economic Relationships [M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993.
[153] Grilli V, Roubini N. Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence[J]. European Economic Review,1996,40(3):847-859.
[154] Grilli, V., Roubini, N. Liquidity and Exchange Rate: Puzzling Evidence from the G7Countries [J]. Working Paper, Yale University,1995.
[155] Groen J J J. Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited [J]. OxfordBulletin of Economics and Statistics,2002,64(4):361-380.
[156] Groen J J J. The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon [J]. Journalof International Economics,2000,52:299-319.
[157] Hamilton J D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series andthe business cycle [J]. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,1989:357-384.
[158] Hansen L P, Hodrick R J. Risk averse speculation in the forward foreign exchange market:An econometric analysis of linear models [M]. Exchange rates and internationalmacroeconomics. University of Chicago Press,1983:113-152.
[159] Harberger, A.C. Currency Depreciation, Income and the Balance of Trade’, Journal ofPolitical Economy [J].1950,58:47–60.
[160] Hellmann T F, Murdock K C, Stiglitz J E. Liberalization, moral hazard in banking, andprudential regulation: Are capital requirements enough?[J]. American economic review,2000:147-165.
[161] Hodrick R J, Prescott E C. Postwar US business cycles: an empirical investigation [J].Journal of Money, credit, and Banking,1997:1-16.
[162] Hodrick R J, Srivastava S. An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1984,3(1):5-29.
[163] Ito T, Sasaki Y N, Sato K. Pass-through of exchange rate changes and macroeconomicshocks to domestic inflation in East Asian countries[J]. Research Institute of Economy,Trade and Industry (RIETI), Japan Discussion Paper Series,2005.
[164] James D. Hamilton, Time Series Analysis [M], Princeton: Princeton University Press,1994.
[165] Jansen W J. What do capital inflows do? Dissecting the transmission mechanism forThailand,1980–1996[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2003,25(4):457-480.
[166] Jonung L. Knut Wicksell's norm of price stabilization and Swedish monetary policy in the1930’s [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1979,5(4):459-496.
[167] JúNIOR R P N, LEóN-LEDESMA M A. Is low inflation really causing the decline inexchange rate pass-through?[J]. Working Paper, KDPE1002, University of Kent,2010.
[168] Junttila J, Korhonen M. The role of inflation regime in the exchange rate pass-through toimport prices [J]. International Review of Economics&Finance,2012,24:88-96.
[169] Kasa K. Common stochastic trends in international stock markets [J]. Journal of MonetaryEconomics,1992,29(1):95-124.
[170] Kempa B, Wilde W. Sources of exchange rate fluctuations with Taylor rule fundamentals[J]. Economic Modelling,2011,28(6):2622-2627.
[171] Kenen P.B., Yudin E.B. The demand for international reserves [J]. The Review ofEconomics and Statistics,1965,47(3):242-250.
[172] Kenen P.B. International liquidity and the balance of payments of a reserve-currencycountry [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1960,74(4):572-586.
[173] Keynes J.M. Some aspects of commodity markets [J]. Manchester Guardian Commercial:European Reconstruction Series,1923,13:784-786.
[174] Keynes J.M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money [M].1936.
[175] Khundrakpam, K.J. Economic Reforms and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to DomesticPrices in India. BIS, Working Papers, No225.2007.
[176] Kim S, Roubini N. Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: a solution with astructural VAR approach [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2000,45(3):561-586.
[177] Kim S. International transmission of US monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR’s[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2001,48(2):339-372.
[178] Kim S. Monetary policy, foreign exchange policy, and delayed overshooting [J]. Journalof Money, Credit, and Banking,2005,37(4):775-782.
[179] Knetter M. M. International comparisons of pricing-to-market behavior [J]. The AmericanEconomic Review,1993:473-486.
[180] Knetter M.M. Price discrimination by US and German exporters [J]. The AmericanEconomic Review,1989,79(1):198-210.
[181] Kouri P.J.K, Porter M.G. International capital flows and portfolio equilibrium [J]. TheJournal of Political Economy,1974:443-467.
[182] Krugman P R. Exchange-rate instability [M]. Cambridge, MA: Mit Press,1989.
[183] Krugman P.R. Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes [R]. National Bureauof Economic Research,1986.
[184] Krugman, P.R. Trigger strategies and price dynamics in equity and foreign exchangemarkets [J]. NBER Working Paper,1987.
[185] Krugman, P.R., Obstfeld, M. International Economics: Theory and Policy [M]. PrenticeHall,2011.
[186] Lane P R. The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey [J]. Journal of internationaleconomics,2001,54(2):235-266.
[187] Lee J., Chinn M.D. Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7Countries [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2006,25(2):257-274.
[188] Leeper E M, Sims C A, Zha T, et al. What does monetary policy do?[J]. Brookings paperson economic activity,1996,1996(2):1-78.
[189] Lerner, A.P. The Symmetry between Export and Import Taxes [J]. Economica,1936,3(11):306–313.
[190] Lewis K K. Can learning affect exchange-rate behavior? The case of the dollar in the early1980’s [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(1):79-100.
[191] Lewis K.K. Changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence fromforeign exchange [J]. The American Economic Review,1989:621-636.
[192] Lucio Sarno, Mark P. Taylor. The Economics of Exchange Rates. Cambridge UniversityPress,2002.
[193] Mark N C. Exchange rates and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon predictability [J].The American Economic Review,1995:201-218.
[194] Mark N C, Sul D. Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: evidence from asmall post-Bretton Woods panel [J]. Journal of International Economics,2001,53(1):29-52.
[195] Mark N C, Moh Y K. The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role ofnonlinearities [J]. International Journal of Finance&Economics,2005,10(4):323-335.
[196] Markowitz H. Portfolio Selection [J]. The Journal of Finance,1952,7(1):77-91.
[197] Marshall, A. Money, Credit and Commerce [M]. London: Macmillan,1923.
[198] Martin D. D. Evans. Exchange-Rate Dynamics [M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press,2011.
[199] Meese R A, Rogoff K. Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: do they Fit outof Sample?[J]. Journal of International Economics,1983,14(1):3-24.
[200] Meese, R., Rogoff K. Was It Real? The Exchange Rate Interest Differential Relation overthe Modem Floating-Rate Period [J]. The Journal of Finance,1988,43:933-948.
[201] Menon J. Exchange rate pass-through [J]. Journal of Economic Surveys,1995,9(2):197-231.
[202] Metzler, L.A. The Transfer Problem Reconsidered [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1942,50:397–414.
[203] Metzler, L.A. Underemployment Equilibrium in International Trade [J]. Econometrica,1942,10:97–112.
[204] Michael Woodford. Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy [M].Princeton: Princeton University Press,2003.
[205] Milton Friedman. Inflation: Causes and Consequences [M]. New York: Asian PublishingHouse,1963.
[206] Milton Friedman. Essays in Positive Economics [M]. Chicago: University of ChicagoPress,1953.
[207] Mishkin F. Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy [J]. NBER Working PaperSeries,2008,13889.
[208] Molodstova, Tanya, David H. Papell. Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability withTaylor Rule Fundamentals [J]. Journal of International Economics,2009,77(2):167-180.
[209] Monacelli T, Perotti R. Fiscal policy, the trade balance and the real exchange rate:Implications for international risk sharing [J]. Manuscript, IGIER, Universita Bocconi,2006,6.
[210] Monacelli T, Perotti R. Fiscal policy, wealth effects, and markups [J]. NBER WorkingPapers,2008.
[211] Monacelli T, Perotti R. Openness and the sectoral effects of fiscal policy [J]. Journal of theEuropean Economic Association,2008,6(2-3):395-403.
[212] Moosa I A. A note on capital mobility [J]. Southern Economic Journal,1996:248-254.
[213] Mountford A, Uhlig H. What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?[J]. Journal of appliedeconometrics,2009,24(6):960-992.
[214] Mundell R A. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchangerates [J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1963,29(4):475-485.
[215] Mundell, R.A. A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas [J]. American Economic Review,1961,51:657–665.
[216] Mundell, R.A. The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal andExternal Stability [J]. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,1962,12:70–79.
[217] Mussa M. Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates:Evidence and implications [C]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.1986,25(1):117-214.
[218] Mussa M. The exchange rate, the balance of payments and monetary and fiscal policyunder a regime of controlled floating [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1976:229-248.
[219] Mussa, Michael. A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1982,90:74-104.
[220] Newey W K, West K D. A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity andautocorrelation consistent covariance matrix [J]. Econometrica,1987:703-708.
[221] Obstfeld M, Cooper R N, Krugman P R. Floating exchange rates: experience andprospects [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1985,1985(2):369-464.
[222] Obstfeld M, Stockman A C. Exchange-rate dynamics [J]. Handbook of InternationalEconomics,1985,2:917-977.
[223] Obstfeld, M., K. Rogoff. Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux [J]. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1995,103:624–660.
[224] Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. Foundations of International Macroeconomics [J]. Cambridge:MIT Press,1996.
[225] Obstfeld, Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff. Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux [J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy,1995,103(3):624-660.
[226] Orphanides A, Williams J C. The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural ratemisperceptions, learning, and expectations [J]. Journal of Economic dynamics and control,2005,29(11):1927-1950.
[227] Papell D H. The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing powerparity hypothesis [J]. Journal of International Economics,2002,57(1):51-82.
[228] Peersman G. What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vectorautoregressions [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2005,20(2):185-207.
[229] Pollard P, Coughlin C. Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at theindustry level [J]. University of Nottingham Research Paper,2004.
[230] Prasad, E.S. International Trade and the Business Cycle [J]. Economic Journal,1999,109:588–606.
[231] Rapach D E, Wohar M E. Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination:new evidence from a century of data [J]. Journal of International Economics,2002,58(2):359-385.
[232] RAVN M O, SCHMITT-GROHé S, URIBE M. Explaining the effects of governmentspending shocks on consumption and the real exchange rate[J]. National Bureau ofEconomic Research,2007.
[233] Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S. Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor CapitalFlows [J]. The American Economic Review,2004,94(2):53-58.
[234] Ricci L, Milesi-Ferretti G M, Lee J. Real exchange rates and fundamentals: Across-country perspective [J]. IMF Working Papers,2008:1-25.
[235] Robert.E.Lucas. Why doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Counties [J]? AmericanEconomic Review,1990,80(2):92-96.
[236] Rogers J H. Monetary shocks and real exchange rates [J]. Journal of InternationalEconomics,1999,49(2):269-288.
[237] Rudebusch G D. Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policyinertia [J]. Journal of monetary economics,2002,49(6):1161-1187.
[238] Samuelson P A. Theoretical notes on trade problems [J]. The Review of Economics andStatistics,1964,46(2):145-154.
[239] Sarno L, Taylor M P. The economics of exchange rates [M]. Cambridge University Press,2002.
[240] Scholl A, Uhlig H. New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification onmonetary policy and exchange rates [J]. Journal of International Economics,2008,76(1):1-13.
[241] Smith P N, Wickens M R. An empirical investigation into the causes of failure of themonetary model of the exchange rate [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,1986,1(2):143-162.
[242] Solow R M, Taylor J B, Friedman B M. Inflation, unemployment, and monetary policy[M]. MIT Press,1999.
[243] Taylor J B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice [C]. Carnegie-Rochester conferenceseries on public policy. North-Holland,1993,39:195-214.
[244] Taylor J B. Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms [J]. EuropeanEconomic Review,2000,44(7):1389-1408.
[245] Ter svirta T. Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressivemodels [J]. Journal of the American Statistical association,1994,89(425):208-218.
[246] Tobin J. A proposal for international monetary reform [J]. Eastern Economic Journal,1978,4(3/4):153-159.
[247] Tobin J. Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk [J]. The Review of EconomicStudies,1958,25(2):65-86.
[248] Turner P, Van't Dack J. Measuring international price and cost competitiveness [M]. Bankfor International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department,1993.
[249] Uhlig H. What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnosticidentification procedure [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2005,52(2):381-419.
[250] Walsh C.E. Monetary Theory and Policy [M]. MIT Press,2003.
[251] Wicksell K. Interest and Prices, translation from1898, edition by RF Kahn [J].1898.
[252] Wicksell K. The influence of the rate of interest on prices [J]. The Economic Journal,1907,17(66):213-220.
[253] Woodford M. Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy [M].Princeton: Princeton university press,2003.
[254] Woodford M. Optimal monetary policy inertia [J]. The Manchester School,1999,67(s1):1-35.
[2](美)莫瑞斯·奥博斯特菲尔德,肯尼斯·罗格夫.国际宏观经济学基础[M].刘红忠等译,中国金融出版社,2010.
[3](英)露西沃·萨诺,马克·P.泰勒.汇率经济学[M].何泽荣等译,西南财经大学出版社,2006.
[4]卞志村.泰勒规则的实证问题及在中国的检验[J].金融研究,2006(8):56-69.
[5]曹伟,罗浩,邓升军.人民币汇率传递对我国物价水平影响的实证分析:2005~2008[J].世界经济研究,2009(4):25-31+87-88.
[6]陈浪南,陈云.人民币汇率、资产价格与短期国际资本流动[J].经济管理,2009(1):1-6.
[7]陈学彬等.中国国际资本流入的影响因素实证分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(12):53-60.
[8]陈雨露.国际资本流动的经济分析[M].北京:中国金融出版社,1997.
[9]陈雨露,边卫红.开放经济中的货币政策操作目标理论——纳入汇率因素的货币状况指数(MCI)[J].国际金融研究,2003(10):18-25.
[10]邓创,李玉梅,孙皓.基于自然利率对我国货币政策反应函数的实证分析[J].吉林大学社会科学学报,2009,49(3):152-158.
[11]邓创,石柱鲜.泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数——基于潜在产出,自然利率与均衡汇率的研究[J].当代财经,2011(1):64-73.
[12]范从来.论国际资本流动的货币冲击效应[J].经济社会体制比较,2003(4):76-82+129.
[13]方福前,吴江.三类冲击与人民币实际汇率波动[J].财贸经济,2009(12):38-44.
[14]封北麟.汇率传递效应与宏观经济冲击对通货膨胀的影响分析[J].世界经济研究,2006,12:45-51.
[15]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模——Eviews应用与实例[M].清华大学出版社,2006.
[16]胡晓炼.解读人民币汇率政策[M].中国报道,2010(11):84-85.
[17]黄寿峰,陈浪南,黄榆舒.人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应:多结构变化协整回归分析[J].国际金融研究,2011,4:47-55.
[18]姜波克.人民币均衡汇率问题研究:中国经济增长的汇率条件.理论、方法、技术、指标[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011.
[19]金洪飞,李子奈.资本流动与货币危机[J].金融研究,2001(12):43-50.
[20]经济增长前沿课题组.国际资本流动、经济扭曲与宏观稳定——当前经济增长态势分析[J].经济研究,2005(4):4-16.
[21]李广众.政府支出与居民消费:替代还是互补[J].世界经济,2005(5):38-45.
[22]李颖,栾培强.人民币汇率传导效果的动态趋势及影响因素分析[J].经济科学,2010(4):78-85.
[23]刘斌.货币政策冲击的识别及我国货币政策有效性的实证分析[J].金融研究,2001(7):1-9.
[24]刘立达.中国国际资本流入的影响因素分析[J],金融研究,2007(3):62-70.
[25]刘元春,阎文涛.汇率与泰勒规则——基于中国案例的分析[C].中国人民大学工作论文,2012.
[26]卢锋,刘鎏.我国两部门劳动生产率增长及国际比较(1978-2005)——巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应与人民币实际汇率关系的重新考察[J].经济学(季刊),2007(2):357-380.
[27]吕剑.人民币汇率变动对国内物价传递效应的实证分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(8):53-61.
[28]马明和,王宇伟.转型经济背景下我国货币迷失、非FDI资本流动与人民币汇率问题[J],管理世界,2005(15):22-29.
[29]倪克勤,曹伟.人民币汇率变动的不完全传递研究:理论及实证[J].金融研究,2009(6):44-59.
[30]潘锡泉,项后军.人民币升值能够有效抑制通货膨胀吗?——基于内生结构突变协整方法的汇率传递视角[J].国际金融研究,2010(12):13-20.
[31]盛松成,吴培.中国货币政策的二元传导机制[J],经济研究,2008(8):37-50.
[32]石柱鲜,孙皓,邓创. Taylor规则在我国货币政策中的实证检验——基于时变隐性通货膨胀目标的新证据[J].当代财经,2009(12):43-48.
[33]宋勃,高波.国际资本流动对房地产价格的影响——基于我国的实证检验（1998-2006年）[J].财经问题研究,2007(3):55-61.
[34]孙锋等.货币冲击下的实际汇率波动:一个分析框架[J].世界经济文汇,2001(6):29-33.
[35]唐东波.实际有效汇率、财政赤字与中国经济增长[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(7):3-17.
[36]唐旭,钱士春.相对劳动生产率变动对人民币实际汇率的影响分析——哈罗德-巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应实证研究[J].金融研究,2007(5):1-14.
[37]田素华,徐明东.国际资本流动对东道国货币政策的抵消效应——基于四种国际资本流动形式的讨论[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(12):70-86.
[38]王爱俭,林楠.人民币名义汇率与利率的互动关系研究[J].经济研究,2007(10):56-67.
[39]王建国.泰勒规则与我国货币政策反应函数的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(1):43-49.
[40]王晋斌,李南.中国汇率传递效应的实证分析[J].经济研究,2009(4):17-27.
[41]王琦.关于我国国际资本流动影响因素计量模型的构建和分析[J].国际金融研究,2006(6):64-69.
[42]王世华,何帆.中国的短期国际资本流动：现状、流动途径和影响因素[J].世界经济,2007(7):12-19.
[43]肖奎喜,徐世长.广义泰勒规则与中央银行货币政策反应函数估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2011,28(5):125-138.
[44]谢平,罗雄.泰勒规则及其在中国货币政策中的检验[J].经济研究,2002(3):3-12.
[45]杨绍基.我国银行间债券回购利率影响因素的实证研究[J].南方金融,2005(8):30-33.
[46]杨胜刚,刘宗华.国际资本流动对中国货币供给的影响及政策分析[J].世界经济,2001(6):61-66.
[47]杨宇俊,门明,李伟平.人民币汇率变动对国内价格的传递效应[J].山西财经大学学报,2009(2):40-46.
[48]殷德生.政府支出与均衡实际汇率[J].世界经济,2004(1):23-28.
[49]张纯威.人民币升值抑制通胀效应的实证检验[J].财贸经济,2008(7):63-68.
[50]张鹤等.货币政策透明度与反通货膨胀[J].经济研究,2009(7):55-64.
[51]张屹山,孔灵柱.基于权力范式的汇率决定研究[J].经济研究,2010(3):104-113.
[52]张屹山,张代强.包含货币因素的利率规则及其在我国的实证检验[J].经济研究,2008(12):65-74.
[53]郑挺国,刘金全.区制转移形式的“泰勒规则”及其在中国货币政策的应用[J].经济研究,2010(3):40-52.
[54]郑挺国,王霞.泰勒规则的实时分析及其在我国货币政策中的适用性[J].金融研究,2011(8):31-46.
[55]中国人民银行金融研究所.人民币汇率形成机制改革进程回顾与展望[J].西部金融，2011(11):4-5+14.
[56]周小川.人民币资本项目可兑换的前景和路径[J].金融研究,2012(1):1-19.
[57] Aarón Tornell, Andrés Velasco. The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: WhyDoes Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(6):1208-1231.
[58] AL-ABRI A S, GOODWIN B K. Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into importprices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration [J]. InternationalReview of Economics&Finance,2009,18(1):142-161.
[59] Alexander, S.S. Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance [J]. International Monetary FundStaff Papers,1952,2:263–278.
[60] Alfaro.L, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Vadym Volosovych. Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Richto Poor Countries: An Empirical Investigation [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2008,90(2):347-368.
[61] Amato J D, Laubach T. The value of interest rate smoothing: how the private sector helps theFederal Reserve [J]. Economic review-federal reserve bank of Kansas City,1999,84:47-64.
[62] Angel J R P, Stockman H S. Optical and infrared polarization of active extragalactic objects[J]. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics,1980,18:321-361.
[63] Argy, V., P. J. K. Kouri. Sterilization policies and the Volatility in International Reserves [J].In: R.Z. Aliber, ed. National Monetary Policies and the International Financial System,Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1974.
[64] Ashburner M, Ball C A, Blake J A, et al. Gene Ontology: tool for the unification of biology[J]. Nature genetics,2000,25(1):25-29.
[65] Bacchetta P, Van Wincoop E. Incomplete information processing: A solution to the forwarddiscount puzzle [J]. Available at SSRN1004808,2006.
[66] Balassa B. The purchasing-power parity doctrine: a reappraisal [J]. The Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1964,72(6):584-596.
[67] BALDWIN R E. Hysteresis in import prices: the beachhead effect [J]. NBER Working Paper,1988, w2545.
[68] Ball L. Efficient rules for monetary policy [J]. International Finance,1999,2(1):63-83.
[69] Balvers R J, Bergstrand J H. Equilibrium real exchange rates: closed-form theoreticalsolutions and some empirical evidence [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1997,16(3):345-366.
[70] Balvers R J, Bergstrand J H. Government expenditure and equilibrium real exchange rates [J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2002,21(5):667-692.
[71] Balvers R J, H Bergstrand J. Equilibrium real exchange rates: closed-form theoreticalsolutions and some empirical evidence [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1997,16(3):345-366.
[72] BANERJEE A, DOLADO J J, HENDRY D F, et al. Exploring equilibrium relationships ineconometrics through static models: some montecarlo evidence [J]. Oxford Bulletin ofEconomics and Statistics,1986,48(3):253-277.
[73] Baxter, Marianne, Alan Stockman. Business Cycles and the Exchange-Rate Regime: SomeInternational Evidence [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23:377-400.
[74] Baxter, Marianne. Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Differentials: Have We Missed theBusiness Cycle Relationship?[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1984,33:5-37.
[75] Beetsma R, Giuliodori M, Klaassen F. The effects of public spending shocks on tradebalances and budget deficits in the European Union [J]. Journal of the European EconomicAssociation,2008,6(2-3):414-423.
[76] Benigno G. Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules [J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,2004,51(3):473-502.
[77] Berkowitz J, Giorgianni L. Long-horizon exchange rate predictability?[J]. Review ofEconomics and Statistics,2001,83(1):81-91.
[78] Bernanke, B.S., Mihov, I. Measuring Monetary Policy [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economic,1998,113(3):869-902.
[79] BETTS C M, KEHOE T J. Tradability of goods and real exchange rate fluctuations [J].Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report,2001.
[80] BETTS C, DEVEREUX M B. The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market [J].European Economic Review,1996,40(3):1007-1021.
[81] Betts, C., Devereux, M. Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Model of Pricing-to-Market [J].Journal of International Economics,2000,50(1):215-244.
[82] Bhagwati J N. Protectionism [M]. The MIT Press,1988.
[83] Bilson J F O. The monetary approach to the exchange rate: some empirical evidence [J]. IMFStaff Papers,1978,25(1):48-75.
[84] Blanchard, O. J.and C.M.Kahn. The Solution of Linear Difference Equations under RationalExpectations [J]. Econcmetrica,1980,48:1305-1313.
[85] Branson W H. Financial capital flows in the US balance of payments [M]. Amsterdam:North-Holland Publishing Company,1968.
[86] BROZ J L, FRIEDEN J A. The political economy of international monetary relations [J].Annual Review of Political Science,2001,4(1):317-343.
[87] Bruce E. Hansen. Inference When a Nuisance Parameters is not Identified under the NullHypothesis [J]. Econometrica,1996,64(2):413-430.
[88] Bruce E. Hansen. Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation [J]. Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.
[89] Buiter W H, Miller M. Monetary policy and international competitiveness: the problems ofadjustment [J]. Oxford Economic Papers,1981,33:143-175.
[90] Bullard, James, Kaushik Mitra. Learning about Monetary Policy Rules [J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,2002,49(6):1105-1129.
[91] BURSTEIN A, EICHENBAUM M, REBELO S. Why are rates of inflation so low after largedevaluations?[J]. NBER Working Paper,2002.
[92] Calvo, Guillermo A. Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets: Large CapitalInflows and Sovereign Governments [J]. In Paul Krugman (editor) Currency Crises, Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000.
[93] Calvo, Guillermo A., Leonardo Leiderman, Carmen Reinhart. Capital Inflows and RealExchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors [J]. IMF StaffPapers,1993,40(1):108-151.
[94] CAMPA J, GOLDBERG L. Exchange rate pass-through: A macro or micro phenomenon.NBER Working Paper [J].2002.
[95] Campbell, John Y., and Richard Clarida. The Dollar and Real Interest Rates [J]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1987,27:103-39.
[96] Canova, F., G. De Nicoló. Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G7[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2002,49:1131-1159.
[97] CASTELNUOVO E. Taylor rules and interest rate smoothing in the euro area [J]. TheManchester School,2007,75(1):1-16.
[98] Charles P. Kindelberger. International Short-term Capital Movement [M]. New York:Columbia University Press,1937.
[99] CHINN M, JOHNSTON L. Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks:evidence from a panel of14countries [J]. NBER Working Papers,1996.
[100] Chinn M, Johnston L. Real exchange rate levels, productivity and demand shocks:evidence from a panel of14countries[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,1996.
[101] Christian Saborowski. Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: Can FinancialDevelopment Cure the Dutch Disease?[J]. IMF Working Paper, IMF/09/20,2009.
[102] Christiano L J, Eichenbaum M, Evans C L. Monetary policy shocks: What have welearned and to what end?[J]. Handbook of macroeconomics,1999,1:65-148.
[103] Chung H, Davig T, Leeper E M. Monetary and fiscal policy switching [J]. Journal ofMoney, Credit and Banking,2007,39(4):809-842.
[104] Clarida R H, Taylor M P. The term structure of forward exchange premiums and theforecastability of spot exchange rates: correcting the errors [J]. Review of Economics andStatistics,1997,79(3):353-361.
[105] Clarida R H, Waldman D. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?And, If So, Can That Tell Us Anything about the Conduct of Monetary Policy?[M]. AssetPrices and Monetary Policy. University of Chicago Press,2008:371-396.
[106] Clarida R, Gali J, Gertler M. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability:evidence and some theory [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2000,115(1):147-180.
[107] Clarida R, Gal J, Gertler M. Monetary policy rules in practice: some internationalevidence [J]. European economic review,1998,42(6):1033-1067.
[108] Clarida R, Gali J. Sources of real exchange-rate fluctuations: How important are nominalshocks?[C]. Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy,1994,41:1-56.
[109] De Gregorio J, Giovannini A, Wolf H C. International evidence on tradables andnontradables inflation [J]. European Economic Review,1994,38(6):1225-1244.
[110] DEVEREUX M B, YETMAN J. Price adjustment and exchange rate pass-through [J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2010,29(1):181-200.
[111] DEVEREUX M, ENGEL C. The optimal choice of exchange-rate regime: price-settingrules and internationalized production [J]. NBER Working Paper,1999, w6992.
[112] Dixit A. Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty [J]. Journal of political Economy,1989:620-638.
[113] Dornbusch R, Branson W H, Kenen P, et al. Exchange rate economics: where do westand?[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1980,1980(1):143-205.
[114] Dornbusch R. Exchange rates and prices [J]. American Economic Review,1987,77(1):93-106.
[115] Dornbusch R. Expectations and exchange rate dynamics [J]. The Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1976,84(6):1161-1176.
[116] Dornbusch S M, Carlsmith J M, Duncan P D, et al. Sexual maturation, social class, andthe desire to be thin among adolescent females[J]. Journal of Developmental&Behavioral Pediatrics,1984,5(6):308-314.
[117] Dornbusch, R. Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand [J]? Brookings Papers onEconomic Activity,1980,1:143–185.
[118] Edison H J, Pauls B D. A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange ratesand real interest rates:1974–1990[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1993,31(2):165-187.
[119] Eggertsson G B, Woodford M. Zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2003,2003(1):139-233.
[120] Eichenbaum M, Evans C L. Some empirical evidence on the effects of shocks to monetarypolicy on exchange rates [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,110(4):975-1009.
[121] Eichenbaum, M. Comments on ‘Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: TheEffects of Monetary Policy: by Christopher Sims’[J]. European Economic Review,1992,36(5):1001-1011.
[122] Engel C, Mark N C, West K D. Exchange rate models are not as bad as you think[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,2007.
[123] Engel C, West K D. West. Accounting For Exchange-Rate Variability in Present-ValueModels When Discount Factor Is Nearly One [J]. American Economic Review,2004,94:119-125.
[124] Engel, Charles, James D. Hamilton. Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data andDo Markets Know It?[J]. American Economic Review,1990,80:689-713.
[125] Engel, Charles, Kenneth D. West. Taylor Rules and the Deutschemark-Dollar RealExchange Rate [J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,2006,38:1175-1194.
[126] Evans G W, Honkapohja S. Learning and expectations in macroeconomics [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001.
[127] Evans M D D, Lyons R K. A new micro model of exchange rate dynamics [R]. NationalBureau of Economic Research,2004.
[128] Faust J, Rogers J H. Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior [J]. Journal ofMonetary Economics,2003,50(7):1403-1424.
[129] Faust J. The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money [C]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. North-Holland,1998,49:207-244.
[130] FEENSTRA R C. Estimating the effects of trade policy [J]. Handbook of internationaleconomics,1995,3:1553-1595.
[131] Fleming J M. Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating ExchangeRates [J]. Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund,1962:369-380.
[132] Fleming, J.M. Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Under Floating ExchangeRates [J]. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,1962,9:369–380.
[133] Flood R P, Rose A K. Fixing exchange rates a virtual quest for fundamentals [J]. Journalof Monetary Economics,1995,36(1):3-37.
[134] Flood R P, Rose A K. Understanding exchange rate volatility without the contrivance ofmacroeconomics [J]. The Economic Journal,1999,109(459):660-672.
[135] Frankel J A. Mundell-Fleming lecture: contractionary currency crashes in developingcountries [J]. IMF Staff Papers,2005:149-192.
[136] Frankel J A. On the mark: A theory of floating exchange rates based on real interestdifferentials [J]. The American Economic Review,1979,69(4):610-622.
[137] Frankel J A. The dazzling dollar [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1985,1985(1):199-217.
[138] Frankel J. Contractionary currency crashes in developing countries [J]. NBER WorkingPaper,2005(w11508).
[139] Frankel, J., A. K. Rose. Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates [J]. In G. M.Grossman and K. Rogoff (Eds), Handbook of International Economics,1995,3:1689-1729.
[140] Frenkel J A, Razin A, Yuen C W. Fiscal policies and growth in the world economy [M].MIT press,1996.
[141] Frenkel J A. A monetary approach to the exchange rate: doctrinal aspects and empiricalevidence [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of economics,1976:200-224.
[142] Frenkel J A. Purchasing power parity: doctrinal perspective and evidence from the1920s[J]. Journal of International Economics,1978,8(2):169-191.
[143] FRIEDEN J, BROZ L, WEINGAST B, et al. The political economy of exchange rates [J].Oxford Handbook of Political Economy,2006.
[144] Froot K A, Klemperer P.D. Exchange rate pass-through when market share matters [J].The American Economic Review,1989:637-654.
[145] Froot K A, Rogoff K. Government consumption and the real exchange rate: The empiricalevidence [J]. Unpublished Manuscript, Harvard Business School. August,1991.
[146] Froot K A, Rogoff K. The EMS, the EMU, and the Transition to a Common Currency [M].NBER Macroeconomics Annual1991, Volume6. MIT Press,1991:269-328.
[147] Fuentes M. Pass-through to import prices: evidence from developing countries [M].Universidad Católica de Chile, Instituto de Economía,2007.
[148] Gagnon J E, Ihrig J. Monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through [J]. InternationalJournal of Finance&Economics,2004,9(4):315-338.
[149] G rtner M. Macroeconomics under flexible exchange rates [M]. Harvester Wheatsheaf,1993.
[150] Gerlach S, Schnabel G. The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area [J]. EconomicsLetters,2000,67(2):165-171.
[151] Ghosh A, Wolf H. Pricing in international markets: lessons from the economist [J]. NBERWorking Paper,1994(w4806).
[152] Granger C W J, Terasvirta T. Modeling Nonlinear Economic Relationships [M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993.
[153] Grilli V, Roubini N. Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence[J]. European Economic Review,1996,40(3):847-859.
[154] Grilli, V., Roubini, N. Liquidity and Exchange Rate: Puzzling Evidence from the G7Countries [J]. Working Paper, Yale University,1995.
[155] Groen J J J. Cointegration and the Monetary Exchange Rate Model Revisited [J]. OxfordBulletin of Economics and Statistics,2002,64(4):361-380.
[156] Groen J J J. The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon [J]. Journalof International Economics,2000,52:299-319.
[157] Hamilton J D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series andthe business cycle [J]. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,1989:357-384.
[158] Hansen L P, Hodrick R J. Risk averse speculation in the forward foreign exchange market:An econometric analysis of linear models [M]. Exchange rates and internationalmacroeconomics. University of Chicago Press,1983:113-152.
[159] Harberger, A.C. Currency Depreciation, Income and the Balance of Trade’, Journal ofPolitical Economy [J].1950,58:47–60.
[160] Hellmann T F, Murdock K C, Stiglitz J E. Liberalization, moral hazard in banking, andprudential regulation: Are capital requirements enough?[J]. American economic review,2000:147-165.
[161] Hodrick R J, Prescott E C. Postwar US business cycles: an empirical investigation [J].Journal of Money, credit, and Banking,1997:1-16.
[162] Hodrick R J, Srivastava S. An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,1984,3(1):5-29.
[163] Ito T, Sasaki Y N, Sato K. Pass-through of exchange rate changes and macroeconomicshocks to domestic inflation in East Asian countries[J]. Research Institute of Economy,Trade and Industry (RIETI), Japan Discussion Paper Series,2005.
[164] James D. Hamilton, Time Series Analysis [M], Princeton: Princeton University Press,1994.
[165] Jansen W J. What do capital inflows do? Dissecting the transmission mechanism forThailand,1980–1996[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics,2003,25(4):457-480.
[166] Jonung L. Knut Wicksell's norm of price stabilization and Swedish monetary policy in the1930’s [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1979,5(4):459-496.
[167] JúNIOR R P N, LEóN-LEDESMA M A. Is low inflation really causing the decline inexchange rate pass-through?[J]. Working Paper, KDPE1002, University of Kent,2010.
[168] Junttila J, Korhonen M. The role of inflation regime in the exchange rate pass-through toimport prices [J]. International Review of Economics&Finance,2012,24:88-96.
[169] Kasa K. Common stochastic trends in international stock markets [J]. Journal of MonetaryEconomics,1992,29(1):95-124.
[170] Kempa B, Wilde W. Sources of exchange rate fluctuations with Taylor rule fundamentals[J]. Economic Modelling,2011,28(6):2622-2627.
[171] Kenen P.B., Yudin E.B. The demand for international reserves [J]. The Review ofEconomics and Statistics,1965,47(3):242-250.
[172] Kenen P.B. International liquidity and the balance of payments of a reserve-currencycountry [J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1960,74(4):572-586.
[173] Keynes J.M. Some aspects of commodity markets [J]. Manchester Guardian Commercial:European Reconstruction Series,1923,13:784-786.
[174] Keynes J.M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money [M].1936.
[175] Khundrakpam, K.J. Economic Reforms and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to DomesticPrices in India. BIS, Working Papers, No225.2007.
[176] Kim S, Roubini N. Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: a solution with astructural VAR approach [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2000,45(3):561-586.
[177] Kim S. International transmission of US monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR’s[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2001,48(2):339-372.
[178] Kim S. Monetary policy, foreign exchange policy, and delayed overshooting [J]. Journalof Money, Credit, and Banking,2005,37(4):775-782.
[179] Knetter M. M. International comparisons of pricing-to-market behavior [J]. The AmericanEconomic Review,1993:473-486.
[180] Knetter M.M. Price discrimination by US and German exporters [J]. The AmericanEconomic Review,1989,79(1):198-210.
[181] Kouri P.J.K, Porter M.G. International capital flows and portfolio equilibrium [J]. TheJournal of Political Economy,1974:443-467.
[182] Krugman P R. Exchange-rate instability [M]. Cambridge, MA: Mit Press,1989.
[183] Krugman P.R. Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes [R]. National Bureauof Economic Research,1986.
[184] Krugman, P.R. Trigger strategies and price dynamics in equity and foreign exchangemarkets [J]. NBER Working Paper,1987.
[185] Krugman, P.R., Obstfeld, M. International Economics: Theory and Policy [M]. PrenticeHall,2011.
[186] Lane P R. The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey [J]. Journal of internationaleconomics,2001,54(2):235-266.
[187] Lee J., Chinn M.D. Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7Countries [J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2006,25(2):257-274.
[188] Leeper E M, Sims C A, Zha T, et al. What does monetary policy do?[J]. Brookings paperson economic activity,1996,1996(2):1-78.
[189] Lerner, A.P. The Symmetry between Export and Import Taxes [J]. Economica,1936,3(11):306–313.
[190] Lewis K K. Can learning affect exchange-rate behavior? The case of the dollar in the early1980’s [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(1):79-100.
[191] Lewis K.K. Changing beliefs and systematic rational forecast errors with evidence fromforeign exchange [J]. The American Economic Review,1989:621-636.
[192] Lucio Sarno, Mark P. Taylor. The Economics of Exchange Rates. Cambridge UniversityPress,2002.
[193] Mark N C. Exchange rates and fundamentals: Evidence on long-horizon predictability [J].The American Economic Review,1995:201-218.
[194] Mark N C, Sul D. Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: evidence from asmall post-Bretton Woods panel [J]. Journal of International Economics,2001,53(1):29-52.
[195] Mark N C, Moh Y K. The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role ofnonlinearities [J]. International Journal of Finance&Economics,2005,10(4):323-335.
[196] Markowitz H. Portfolio Selection [J]. The Journal of Finance,1952,7(1):77-91.
[197] Marshall, A. Money, Credit and Commerce [M]. London: Macmillan,1923.
[198] Martin D. D. Evans. Exchange-Rate Dynamics [M]. Princeton: Princeton University Press,2011.
[199] Meese R A, Rogoff K. Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: do they Fit outof Sample?[J]. Journal of International Economics,1983,14(1):3-24.
[200] Meese, R., Rogoff K. Was It Real? The Exchange Rate Interest Differential Relation overthe Modem Floating-Rate Period [J]. The Journal of Finance,1988,43:933-948.
[201] Menon J. Exchange rate pass-through [J]. Journal of Economic Surveys,1995,9(2):197-231.
[202] Metzler, L.A. The Transfer Problem Reconsidered [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1942,50:397–414.
[203] Metzler, L.A. Underemployment Equilibrium in International Trade [J]. Econometrica,1942,10:97–112.
[204] Michael Woodford. Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy [M].Princeton: Princeton University Press,2003.
[205] Milton Friedman. Inflation: Causes and Consequences [M]. New York: Asian PublishingHouse,1963.
[206] Milton Friedman. Essays in Positive Economics [M]. Chicago: University of ChicagoPress,1953.
[207] Mishkin F. Exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy [J]. NBER Working PaperSeries,2008,13889.
[208] Molodstova, Tanya, David H. Papell. Out-of-Sample Exchange Rate Predictability withTaylor Rule Fundamentals [J]. Journal of International Economics,2009,77(2):167-180.
[209] Monacelli T, Perotti R. Fiscal policy, the trade balance and the real exchange rate:Implications for international risk sharing [J]. Manuscript, IGIER, Universita Bocconi,2006,6.
[210] Monacelli T, Perotti R. Fiscal policy, wealth effects, and markups [J]. NBER WorkingPapers,2008.
[211] Monacelli T, Perotti R. Openness and the sectoral effects of fiscal policy [J]. Journal of theEuropean Economic Association,2008,6(2-3):395-403.
[212] Moosa I A. A note on capital mobility [J]. Southern Economic Journal,1996:248-254.
[213] Mountford A, Uhlig H. What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?[J]. Journal of appliedeconometrics,2009,24(6):960-992.
[214] Mundell R A. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchangerates [J]. The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science,1963,29(4):475-485.
[215] Mundell, R.A. A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas [J]. American Economic Review,1961,51:657–665.
[216] Mundell, R.A. The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal andExternal Stability [J]. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers,1962,12:70–79.
[217] Mussa M. Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates:Evidence and implications [C]. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy.1986,25(1):117-214.
[218] Mussa M. The exchange rate, the balance of payments and monetary and fiscal policyunder a regime of controlled floating [J]. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1976:229-248.
[219] Mussa, Michael. A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1982,90:74-104.
[220] Newey W K, West K D. A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity andautocorrelation consistent covariance matrix [J]. Econometrica,1987:703-708.
[221] Obstfeld M, Cooper R N, Krugman P R. Floating exchange rates: experience andprospects [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1985,1985(2):369-464.
[222] Obstfeld M, Stockman A C. Exchange-rate dynamics [J]. Handbook of InternationalEconomics,1985,2:917-977.
[223] Obstfeld, M., K. Rogoff. Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux [J]. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1995,103:624–660.
[224] Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K. Foundations of International Macroeconomics [J]. Cambridge:MIT Press,1996.
[225] Obstfeld, Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff. Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux [J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy,1995,103(3):624-660.
[226] Orphanides A, Williams J C. The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural ratemisperceptions, learning, and expectations [J]. Journal of Economic dynamics and control,2005,29(11):1927-1950.
[227] Papell D H. The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing powerparity hypothesis [J]. Journal of International Economics,2002,57(1):51-82.
[228] Peersman G. What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vectorautoregressions [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,2005,20(2):185-207.
[229] Pollard P, Coughlin C. Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at theindustry level [J]. University of Nottingham Research Paper,2004.
[230] Prasad, E.S. International Trade and the Business Cycle [J]. Economic Journal,1999,109:588–606.
[231] Rapach D E, Wohar M E. Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination:new evidence from a century of data [J]. Journal of International Economics,2002,58(2):359-385.
[232] RAVN M O, SCHMITT-GROHé S, URIBE M. Explaining the effects of governmentspending shocks on consumption and the real exchange rate[J]. National Bureau ofEconomic Research,2007.
[233] Reinhart C M, Rogoff K S. Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor CapitalFlows [J]. The American Economic Review,2004,94(2):53-58.
[234] Ricci L, Milesi-Ferretti G M, Lee J. Real exchange rates and fundamentals: Across-country perspective [J]. IMF Working Papers,2008:1-25.
[235] Robert.E.Lucas. Why doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Counties [J]? AmericanEconomic Review,1990,80(2):92-96.
[236] Rogers J H. Monetary shocks and real exchange rates [J]. Journal of InternationalEconomics,1999,49(2):269-288.
[237] Rudebusch G D. Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policyinertia [J]. Journal of monetary economics,2002,49(6):1161-1187.
[238] Samuelson P A. Theoretical notes on trade problems [J]. The Review of Economics andStatistics,1964,46(2):145-154.
[239] Sarno L, Taylor M P. The economics of exchange rates [M]. Cambridge University Press,2002.
[240] Scholl A, Uhlig H. New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification onmonetary policy and exchange rates [J]. Journal of International Economics,2008,76(1):1-13.
[241] Smith P N, Wickens M R. An empirical investigation into the causes of failure of themonetary model of the exchange rate [J]. Journal of Applied Econometrics,1986,1(2):143-162.
[242] Solow R M, Taylor J B, Friedman B M. Inflation, unemployment, and monetary policy[M]. MIT Press,1999.
[243] Taylor J B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice [C]. Carnegie-Rochester conferenceseries on public policy. North-Holland,1993,39:195-214.
[244] Taylor J B. Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms [J]. EuropeanEconomic Review,2000,44(7):1389-1408.
[245] Ter svirta T. Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressivemodels [J]. Journal of the American Statistical association,1994,89(425):208-218.
[246] Tobin J. A proposal for international monetary reform [J]. Eastern Economic Journal,1978,4(3/4):153-159.
[247] Tobin J. Liquidity preference as behavior towards risk [J]. The Review of EconomicStudies,1958,25(2):65-86.
[248] Turner P, Van't Dack J. Measuring international price and cost competitiveness [M]. Bankfor International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department,1993.
[249] Uhlig H. What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnosticidentification procedure [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2005,52(2):381-419.
[250] Walsh C.E. Monetary Theory and Policy [M]. MIT Press,2003.
[251] Wicksell K. Interest and Prices, translation from1898, edition by RF Kahn [J].1898.
[252] Wicksell K. The influence of the rate of interest on prices [J]. The Economic Journal,1907,17(66):213-220.
[253] Woodford M. Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy [M].Princeton: Princeton university press,2003.
[254] Woodford M. Optimal monetary policy inertia [J]. The Manchester School,1999,67(s1):1-35.