我国股票市场与经济增长关系的实证分析
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摘要
我国股票市场经过十余年发展，已基本建立了稳定机制，但仍存在着相当多的问题。我国证券市场运行的实践表明，股票市场的发展在企业筹资、促进企业改制和降低银行风险等方面确实发挥了重要的作用。但同时我国的股票市场仍然处于初级阶段，在股票发行、股本结构、股市运行机制等方面都存在缺陷。而且，即使是一个发达、完善的股票市场对一国经济增长的作用，在理论上也存在很大的争论。因而分析我国股票市场与经济发展的关系，揭示股票、市场对经济发展的作用，从而揭示未来股票市场的发展前景和经济增长的潜力，不仅是客观认识股票市场在我国国民经济中的地位以及进一步发展与调整股票市场的前提，同时对我国股票市场的发展，乃至对我国经济的发展都有重大意义。
本文首先回顾了国内外学者对股票市场与经济增长关系的研究。主张股票市场与经济增长相关且能显著地促进经济增长的经济学家，主要从股票市场的融资能力、流动性、规模等角度研究股票市场对资本形成的作用，认为股票市场有利于加速资本的形成，从而有利于经济增长。但是，仍有许多经济学家认为股票市场与经济增长之间并没有相关关系，他们主要从股票市场规模和股票融资数量的角度评价股票市场的作用。文章第三部分对经济增长理论进行阐述，主要包括古典主义经济增长理论、新古典主义经济增长理论和新经济增长理论。在前人理论研究的基础上，本文第四部分利用统计软件EVIEWS对我国股票市场与经济增长的关系进行协整分析，得出了股票市场与经济增长不显著相关的结论。本文第五部分进一步从投资需求机制和消费需求机制检验股票市场和经济增长之间的关系，发现股票市场的流动性指标和规模性指标在计量模型中均呈现出不显著特征。
我国股票市场与经济增长不相关，究其原因在于其存在的众
多问题，而这些问题根源于股票市场存在的制度性缺陷，本文第六
部分具体分析了我国股票市场存在的制度性缺陷，主要包括上市制
度、退市制度、交易制度、会计准则等诸多方面的缺陷，并利用“窃
贼原理”对此进行博弈分析。最后，本文提出了我国股票市场制度
化的对策建议，一是实现由核准制向注册制过渡，杜绝不符合规定
的公司上市;二是完善退市制度;三是健全股票市场的主体;四是
建立“股东集体诉讼带位制”:五是发展与完善会计准则，健全信
息披露制度。
Although after more then ten years' development, Chinese stock market has established stabilizing mechanism, many problems still exist. Practice shows that the development of stock market has played an important role in enterprises' financing and reforming, and decreasing banks' risks. However, as our stock market still in initial stage, shortages still remain in stock issuing, capital structure and the practice system of the stock market etc. Even the impact to a country's economic growth causes by a developed and perfect stock market remains to be discussed. Therefore, analyzing the relationship between stock market and economic growth, evaluating stock market's effects to our country's economic growth, so as to revealing the prospect of stock market and the potential of economic growth. It's not only premise to realize the status of stock market in our economy and to develop and adjust this market, but also has significance in the development of our stock market and even the whole economy.
This dissertation firstly reviews researches on the relationship
s
between stock market and economic growth. Economist who support the viewpoint that stock market is related to economic growth and can promote the latter, study stock market's role in capital forming from its financing ability, liquidity and scale, etc. They believe that stock market can accelerate capital forming in favor of economic growth. While some other economists state that there's no relationship between stock market and economic growth. They evaluate stock market's role from its scale and financed amount. In section three, we expatiate economic growth theories, including
classical economic growth theories, neoclassical economic growth theories and new economic growth theories. Based on these above, in section four, we use statistics software Eviews to do cointegration between stock market and economic growth, and conclude that they are not related. In section five, we test their relationship from investing demand system and consuming demand system. We find liquidity indicators and scale indicators of stock market are not important.
Why the stock market of our country has not connected with economic growth lies in its many problems and they result from the system flaws of the stock market. So the sixth part of this thesis namely analyzes the system flaws of the stock market of our country, including flaws of the entry system, the withdrawing system, interact system and accountant rules, by the game theory and the "thief theory". At last, we give the suggestions: transform the system from affirmation to registeration and ban the disqualified companies; perfect the withdrawing system; perfect the body of the stock market; build up the shareholder conglomerate lawsuit substituting system; develop and perfect the accounting rules and perfect the information leakage system.
Jiang Huihui (Finance) Directed by: Wu Haihua
本文首先回顾了国内外学者对股票市场与经济增长关系的研究。主张股票市场与经济增长相关且能显著地促进经济增长的经济学家，主要从股票市场的融资能力、流动性、规模等角度研究股票市场对资本形成的作用，认为股票市场有利于加速资本的形成，从而有利于经济增长。但是，仍有许多经济学家认为股票市场与经济增长之间并没有相关关系，他们主要从股票市场规模和股票融资数量的角度评价股票市场的作用。文章第三部分对经济增长理论进行阐述，主要包括古典主义经济增长理论、新古典主义经济增长理论和新经济增长理论。在前人理论研究的基础上，本文第四部分利用统计软件EVIEWS对我国股票市场与经济增长的关系进行协整分析，得出了股票市场与经济增长不显著相关的结论。本文第五部分进一步从投资需求机制和消费需求机制检验股票市场和经济增长之间的关系，发现股票市场的流动性指标和规模性指标在计量模型中均呈现出不显著特征。
我国股票市场与经济增长不相关，究其原因在于其存在的众
多问题，而这些问题根源于股票市场存在的制度性缺陷，本文第六
部分具体分析了我国股票市场存在的制度性缺陷，主要包括上市制
度、退市制度、交易制度、会计准则等诸多方面的缺陷，并利用“窃
贼原理”对此进行博弈分析。最后，本文提出了我国股票市场制度
化的对策建议，一是实现由核准制向注册制过渡，杜绝不符合规定
的公司上市;二是完善退市制度;三是健全股票市场的主体;四是
建立“股东集体诉讼带位制”:五是发展与完善会计准则，健全信
息披露制度。
Although after more then ten years' development, Chinese stock market has established stabilizing mechanism, many problems still exist. Practice shows that the development of stock market has played an important role in enterprises' financing and reforming, and decreasing banks' risks. However, as our stock market still in initial stage, shortages still remain in stock issuing, capital structure and the practice system of the stock market etc. Even the impact to a country's economic growth causes by a developed and perfect stock market remains to be discussed. Therefore, analyzing the relationship between stock market and economic growth, evaluating stock market's effects to our country's economic growth, so as to revealing the prospect of stock market and the potential of economic growth. It's not only premise to realize the status of stock market in our economy and to develop and adjust this market, but also has significance in the development of our stock market and even the whole economy.
This dissertation firstly reviews researches on the relationship
s
between stock market and economic growth. Economist who support the viewpoint that stock market is related to economic growth and can promote the latter, study stock market's role in capital forming from its financing ability, liquidity and scale, etc. They believe that stock market can accelerate capital forming in favor of economic growth. While some other economists state that there's no relationship between stock market and economic growth. They evaluate stock market's role from its scale and financed amount. In section three, we expatiate economic growth theories, including
classical economic growth theories, neoclassical economic growth theories and new economic growth theories. Based on these above, in section four, we use statistics software Eviews to do cointegration between stock market and economic growth, and conclude that they are not related. In section five, we test their relationship from investing demand system and consuming demand system. We find liquidity indicators and scale indicators of stock market are not important.
Why the stock market of our country has not connected with economic growth lies in its many problems and they result from the system flaws of the stock market. So the sixth part of this thesis namely analyzes the system flaws of the stock market of our country, including flaws of the entry system, the withdrawing system, interact system and accountant rules, by the game theory and the "thief theory". At last, we give the suggestions: transform the system from affirmation to registeration and ban the disqualified companies; perfect the withdrawing system; perfect the body of the stock market; build up the shareholder conglomerate lawsuit substituting system; develop and perfect the accounting rules and perfect the information leakage system.
Jiang Huihui (Finance) Directed by: Wu Haihua
引文
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2G.Gurley and E. Shaw.Financial Aspects of Economic Development. American Ecomomic Review. 1955． 515-518．
3Atje, Raymond, and Boyan Jovanovic. Stock Markets and Development. European Economic Review. 1993． 37(2-3,April),632-640
4Kunn and Levine. Stock Markets, Corporate Finance,and Economic Growth:An Overview.The World Bank Economic Review.1996． 223-239
5Ross Levine and Sara Zervos.Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review.1998． 6． 537-555
6John H.Boyd and Bruce D. Smith. The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development.Economic Theory 1998． 12． 519-560
7Colin. Maryer.New Issues in Corporate Finance.European Economic Review 1998． 32． 116-188
8Richard Harris.Stock markets and development: A re-assessment.European Economic Review. 1997． Vol.41． 139-146
9P. Arestis and P. Demetriades. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence. The Economic Journal, 1997 . Vol.107． 783-799
10 J.Stiglitz.CreditMarkets and the Control of Capital.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, 1985Vol17． 133-152
11 Baumol, Walliam J. the Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretical Approach.Quarterly Journal of Economics,1952． 4． 545-556
12 Bencivenga, Valerie R., and Bruce D. Smith. Financial Intermediation
and Endogenous Growth. Review of Economic Studies,1991． (2,April),195-209
13Boyd,John H., and Edward C. Prescott. Financial Intermediary-Coalitions. Journal of Economic Theory,38(2,April),1986． 211-232
14 David.Romer. Advanced Macroeconomics[M].The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc, 1996．
15 Eric C. Wang. A Dynamic Two-sector Modle for Analyzing the Interrelation between Financial Development and Industrial Growth. International Review of Economics and Finance.2000． 9． 223-241
16 Fry, Marwell J. In Favour of Financial Liberalisation.the Economic Journal.1997,107(May),754-770
17Galhis Vicente. Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Less-developing Countries:A Theoretical Approach. Journal of Development Studies.13 (2,Jan.), 1977． 58-72
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19Greenwood, Jeremy, and Bruce D. Smith. Financial Markets in Development, and the Development of Financial Markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,21(1,Jan.),1997． 145-181
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2G.Gurley and E. Shaw.Financial Aspects of Economic Development. American Ecomomic Review. 1955． 515-518．
3Atje, Raymond, and Boyan Jovanovic. Stock Markets and Development. European Economic Review. 1993． 37(2-3,April),632-640
4Kunn and Levine. Stock Markets, Corporate Finance,and Economic Growth:An Overview.The World Bank Economic Review.1996． 223-239
5Ross Levine and Sara Zervos.Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. The American Economic Review.1998． 6． 537-555
6John H.Boyd and Bruce D. Smith. The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development.Economic Theory 1998． 12． 519-560
7Colin. Maryer.New Issues in Corporate Finance.European Economic Review 1998． 32． 116-188
8Richard Harris.Stock markets and development: A re-assessment.European Economic Review. 1997． Vol.41． 139-146
9P. Arestis and P. Demetriades. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence. The Economic Journal, 1997 . Vol.107． 783-799
10 J.Stiglitz.CreditMarkets and the Control of Capital.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking, 1985Vol17． 133-152
11 Baumol, Walliam J. the Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretical Approach.Quarterly Journal of Economics,1952． 4． 545-556
12 Bencivenga, Valerie R., and Bruce D. Smith. Financial Intermediation
and Endogenous Growth. Review of Economic Studies,1991． (2,April),195-209
13Boyd,John H., and Edward C. Prescott. Financial Intermediary-Coalitions. Journal of Economic Theory,38(2,April),1986． 211-232
14 David.Romer. Advanced Macroeconomics[M].The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc, 1996．
15 Eric C. Wang. A Dynamic Two-sector Modle for Analyzing the Interrelation between Financial Development and Industrial Growth. International Review of Economics and Finance.2000． 9． 223-241
16 Fry, Marwell J. In Favour of Financial Liberalisation.the Economic Journal.1997,107(May),754-770
17Galhis Vicente. Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth in Less-developing Countries:A Theoretical Approach. Journal of Development Studies.13 (2,Jan.), 1977． 58-72
18Greenwood, Jeremy, and Boyan Jovanovic. Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income. Journal of Political Economy. 1990, 98(5,Oct.), 1076-1107
19Greenwood, Jeremy, and Bruce D. Smith. Financial Markets in Development, and the Development of Financial Markets. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,21(1,Jan.),1997． 145-181
20 Gurley, John G., and Edward S. Shaw.Financial Aspects of Economic Development. American Economic Review, 1955． 45(4,Sep.),515-538
21 Gurley, John G., and Edward S. Shaw. Money in a Theory of Finance , Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1960
22 King, Robert G. , and Ross Levine. Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth:theory and Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics. 1993． 3． 513-542
23 Kuznets,S. Economic Growth of Nations. Cambridge:Belknap,1971
24 Levine, Ross. Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy. Journal of Finance. 1991,46(4,Sep.), 1445～1465
25 Levine, Ross. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature. 1997,35(2,Jun.),688～726
26 Levine, Ross, and Sara Zervos. Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. American Economic Review. 1998,88(3,Jun.),537～558
27 Mankiw, Gregg, David Romer, and David Weil. A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1992. 2. 407～489
28 Pagno, Marco. Financial Markets and Growth: An Overview. European. 1993, 37(2～3,April), 613～622
29 Peter L. Rousseau and Paul Wachtel. Financial Intermediation and Economic Perfomance: Historical Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries. Journal of money, Credit and Banking.1998.30,No.2,657～678
30 Rajan, Raghram G., and Luiji Zingales. Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review. 1998,88(3,June),559～586
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