孤东滩海油田原油外输方案模糊综合评判研究
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摘要
石油工程投资是一项耗资巨大、回收期长、科技含量高、涉及门类广的重大固定资产投资活动。因此，为降低项目投资风险，提高项目的投资效益，对投资项目作出经济评价是项目可行性研究的重要环节，它为决策层做出科学决策提供了重要参考和技术保证。由于经济评价涉及多方面因素，所以对经济评价一般采用请专家小组进行讨论后给出评判意见的方法进行。为了节省人力物力、并继承专家们的经验，本文试图将模糊数学中的模糊综合评判方法和隶属函数理论与计算机应用结合起来：通过让计算机学习专家们对以往案例的评判资料，从而找到专家们的经验(即各评语的隶属函数)，在此基础上建立起计算机模糊综合评判系统。此系统可对新的项目(或方案)作出类似专家意见的综合评价。
本文详细讨论了建立计算机模糊综合评判系统的方法，并以孤东滩海油田原油外输方案的评判为例，建立了孤东滩海油田原油外输方案的模糊综合评判系统。最后运用该系统评价了一个滩海油田原油外输方案，对评价结果进行了综合分析，并指出了方案的改进方法。
为了方便使用该评判系统，本文用VB语言编写了应用程序。
Project investment is an important and comprehensive investment activity for fixed assets, which costs hugely and takes long pay-back period. Making economy evaluation for project is an important link of project feasibility research, because it provides reference and assurance for the science decision. As dealing with many factors, the economy evaluation is a synthetic evaluation, which is always made by a group of experts.
To save manpower and material resources, and to inherit the experts' experience, this paper tried to combine fuzzy synthetic evaluation method and subordinate function theory with the computer application. That is to say, let the computer "learn" the experts' opinions of several past cases, then it will find the experts' experience (i.e. the subordinate function of each comment), thus a computer fuzzy synthetic evaluation system will be built up. This system is able to make a fuzzy synthetic evaluation for a new project (or a scheme), similar to the experts' opinion.
This paper has discussed in detail the method of establishing a computer fuzzy synthetic evaluation system, and the evaluation system of foreshore oil transportation schemes has been established as an example. At last, it uses this system to evaluate a scheme, and analyses the evaluation result to point out the improvement method of the scheme.
To make the use of this system convenient, a computer program has been written with VB language.
本文详细讨论了建立计算机模糊综合评判系统的方法，并以孤东滩海油田原油外输方案的评判为例，建立了孤东滩海油田原油外输方案的模糊综合评判系统。最后运用该系统评价了一个滩海油田原油外输方案，对评价结果进行了综合分析，并指出了方案的改进方法。
为了方便使用该评判系统，本文用VB语言编写了应用程序。
Project investment is an important and comprehensive investment activity for fixed assets, which costs hugely and takes long pay-back period. Making economy evaluation for project is an important link of project feasibility research, because it provides reference and assurance for the science decision. As dealing with many factors, the economy evaluation is a synthetic evaluation, which is always made by a group of experts.
To save manpower and material resources, and to inherit the experts' experience, this paper tried to combine fuzzy synthetic evaluation method and subordinate function theory with the computer application. That is to say, let the computer "learn" the experts' opinions of several past cases, then it will find the experts' experience (i.e. the subordinate function of each comment), thus a computer fuzzy synthetic evaluation system will be built up. This system is able to make a fuzzy synthetic evaluation for a new project (or a scheme), similar to the experts' opinion.
This paper has discussed in detail the method of establishing a computer fuzzy synthetic evaluation system, and the evaluation system of foreshore oil transportation schemes has been established as an example. At last, it uses this system to evaluate a scheme, and analyses the evaluation result to point out the improvement method of the scheme.
To make the use of this system convenient, a computer program has been written with VB language.
引文
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[2] 吴万铎，吴万钊．模糊数学与计算机应用．第1版．1988．．
[3] 李洪兴，汪培庄．模糊数学．国防工业出版社，1994．
[4] 韩立岩，汪培庄．应用模糊数学．第1版．1989．
[5] 黄渝祥，邢爱芳．工程经济学．第2版．同济大学出版社，1995．
[6] 区奕勤，张生迪．模糊数学原理及应用．1988．
[7] 余建星，李建辉，程士全等．基于模糊综合评判的输油管道系统安全风险评估方法．中国海上油气(工程)．1998．
[8] 傅家骥，仝允桓．工业技术经济学．第3版．清华大学出版社，1996．
[9] 武卷文，张来尔．技术经济学．第1版．大连理工大学出版社，1998．
[10] 杨伦标，高英仪．模糊数学·原理及应用．华南理工大学出版社，1993．
[11] 秦士元．系统分析．上海交通大学出版社，1987．
[12] 肖祖骐，李长春．海上油气集输．上海交通大学出版社，1993．
[13] 蔡春智．油气储运工艺．上海交通大学出版社，1993．
[14] 肯．阿绪德，陶世勇．油气田地面处理工艺．石油工业出版社，1993．
[15] 冯绪初．油气集输．石油大学出版社，1993．
[16] [比]D·A·菲，[爱]J·奥戴，马志良等．近海边际油田开发技术．北京：石油工业出版社，1990．
[17] 李宏伟．海上边际油田开发策略研究．[博士学位论文]．上海交通大学船舶与海洋工程系，1998．
[18] 胜利埕岛油田100万吨产能建设评价．1996．
[19] 中石化油气集输手册．1997．
[20] 王勇．分散油田地面工程建设技术．山东石油会油气集输及处理工艺技术研讨会论文，2001．
[21] 孤东采油厂九五后三年滚动发展规划．200
[22] 海上边际油田开发策略研究．[博士学位论文]，上海交通大学船舶与海洋工程系．
[23] 宾海采油志．第一版，中国广播电视大学出版社．1992．
[24] 埕岛油田勘探开发海洋环境．第一版．青岛海洋大学出版社，1993．
[25] [美]Evangelos Petroutsos，邱仲潘等译．Visual Basic 5从入门到精通．电子业出版社，1997．
[2] 吴万铎，吴万钊．模糊数学与计算机应用．第1版．1988．．
[3] 李洪兴，汪培庄．模糊数学．国防工业出版社，1994．
[4] 韩立岩，汪培庄．应用模糊数学．第1版．1989．
[5] 黄渝祥，邢爱芳．工程经济学．第2版．同济大学出版社，1995．
[6] 区奕勤，张生迪．模糊数学原理及应用．1988．
[7] 余建星，李建辉，程士全等．基于模糊综合评判的输油管道系统安全风险评估方法．中国海上油气(工程)．1998．
[8] 傅家骥，仝允桓．工业技术经济学．第3版．清华大学出版社，1996．
[9] 武卷文，张来尔．技术经济学．第1版．大连理工大学出版社，1998．
[10] 杨伦标，高英仪．模糊数学·原理及应用．华南理工大学出版社，1993．
[11] 秦士元．系统分析．上海交通大学出版社，1987．
[12] 肖祖骐，李长春．海上油气集输．上海交通大学出版社，1993．
[13] 蔡春智．油气储运工艺．上海交通大学出版社，1993．
[14] 肯．阿绪德，陶世勇．油气田地面处理工艺．石油工业出版社，1993．
[15] 冯绪初．油气集输．石油大学出版社，1993．
[16] [比]D·A·菲，[爱]J·奥戴，马志良等．近海边际油田开发技术．北京：石油工业出版社，1990．
[17] 李宏伟．海上边际油田开发策略研究．[博士学位论文]．上海交通大学船舶与海洋工程系，1998．
[18] 胜利埕岛油田100万吨产能建设评价．1996．
[19] 中石化油气集输手册．1997．
[20] 王勇．分散油田地面工程建设技术．山东石油会油气集输及处理工艺技术研讨会论文，2001．
[21] 孤东采油厂九五后三年滚动发展规划．200
[22] 海上边际油田开发策略研究．[博士学位论文]，上海交通大学船舶与海洋工程系．
[23] 宾海采油志．第一版，中国广播电视大学出版社．1992．
[24] 埕岛油田勘探开发海洋环境．第一版．青岛海洋大学出版社，1993．
[25] [美]Evangelos Petroutsos，邱仲潘等译．Visual Basic 5从入门到精通．电子业出版社，1997．