基于能源消费、经济增长与碳排放关系研究的能源政策探讨
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摘要
在现代社会经济发展过程中，能源消费已成为人类社会经济得以可持续发展的重要的源动力之一。近几年来随着世界经济的发展，对能源的消费量也越来越多，所产生的废弃物已经严重的影响到全球的可持续发展，其中由于碳排放过多而引起的“温室效应”对人类的发展所起到的阻碍作用最为明显。因此，能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的协调发展问题已成为了世界各国面临的重要问题之一。
中国做为世界上最大的发展中国家，己成为能源消费和温室气体排放第一大国。在这样的背景下，如何在发展低碳经济发展的道路上协调能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系，已经成为我国如何更好更快的建设资源节约型和环境友好型的社会的主要问题之一。本文选取了1978-2010年间我国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放数据，并结合Eviews7.0软件对他们之间的关系进行实证分析得出结论：
（1）我国能源消费和实际经济互为因果关系。在1%显著水平下，能源消费每增加1%，相应的将带动实际经济增加1.66%。在短期内，我国能源消费每增加1%，则相应的带动我国实际经济增长0.54%，而滞后的能源消费却对我国实际经济的影响起到了相反的作用。
（2）我国能源消费是引起碳排放增长的原因。两者之间存在着长期均衡关系，能源消费每增加1%，相应的将带动碳排放增加1.03%，而在短期内却高达1.13%。
（3）分析能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间三者关系，我国能源消费每增1%，则相应的我国碳排放量会增加0.78%，而在短期内，我国能源消费每增加1%，则相应的带动我国碳排放增长高达1.19%，实际经济每增长1%，则相应的会使我国碳排放量速度降低0.11%。
（4）为了实现我国的碳排放目标和实现经济的可持续增长，提出了一些可行的政策措施来促进能源消费、经济增长和碳排放之间的协调发展。
In the process of economic development, Energy consumption has become oneof the important sources of power in human social and economic sustainabledevelopment in the modern society. In recent years with the development of the worldeconomy, the energy consumption is also growing, hinder the role played in thedevelopment of human exhaust was already serious impact to the sustainabledevelopment of the world, which are due to excessive carbon dioxide emissionscaused by the "greenhouse effect" is the most obvious. Coordinated development ofenergy, economic growth and carbon emissions problem has become one of the mostimportant issues in each countries of the world.
As the world's largest developing country, China has become the largest countryof the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions than any other countries. Inthis context, how to coordinate the relationship between energy consumption andcarbon emissions, and economic growth in the development of low-carbon economyhas become one of the main obstacles to build a resource-saving andenvironment-friendly society with faster and better. The paper selects China's energyconsumption, economic growth and carbon emissions data among1978-2010years,and uses the Eviews7.0software to analysis the relationship among their combinationand makes conclusions as follows:
（1）China's energy consumption and real GDP Granger cause each other.Underthe1%significance level, GDP each the1%increase in energy consumption willdrive real GDP increased1.66%.In the short term, when China's energy consumptionincrease1%,it will drive the China's real GDP increase0.54%, however,the twobehind energy consumption plays the opposite role on the impact of China's real GDP.
(2) The growth of China's carbon emissions is caused by energyconsumption.There is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them,each1%increased in energy consumption,will drive the carbon emissions increasing1.03%,itgoes up to1.13%when in the short term.
(3) when analysis the relationship among the energy consumption、the carbonemissions, and economic growth，the energy consumption increased by1%,the Cemissions in China will increase to0.78%.In the short term,when the energyconsumption increase1%,the growth of China's carbon emissions will be up to1.19%,and China's carbon emissions speed will reduced by0.11%while the realGDP increase1%.
(4) In order to achieve our carbon emissions' targets and the sustainableeconomic growth,we should take some feasible policy measures to promote thecoordinated development among the energy consumption、the economic growth andthe carbon emissions.
中国做为世界上最大的发展中国家，己成为能源消费和温室气体排放第一大国。在这样的背景下，如何在发展低碳经济发展的道路上协调能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系，已经成为我国如何更好更快的建设资源节约型和环境友好型的社会的主要问题之一。本文选取了1978-2010年间我国能源消费、经济增长和碳排放数据，并结合Eviews7.0软件对他们之间的关系进行实证分析得出结论：
（1）我国能源消费和实际经济互为因果关系。在1%显著水平下，能源消费每增加1%，相应的将带动实际经济增加1.66%。在短期内，我国能源消费每增加1%，则相应的带动我国实际经济增长0.54%，而滞后的能源消费却对我国实际经济的影响起到了相反的作用。
（2）我国能源消费是引起碳排放增长的原因。两者之间存在着长期均衡关系，能源消费每增加1%，相应的将带动碳排放增加1.03%，而在短期内却高达1.13%。
（3）分析能源消费、碳排放与经济增长之间三者关系，我国能源消费每增1%，则相应的我国碳排放量会增加0.78%，而在短期内，我国能源消费每增加1%，则相应的带动我国碳排放增长高达1.19%，实际经济每增长1%，则相应的会使我国碳排放量速度降低0.11%。
（4）为了实现我国的碳排放目标和实现经济的可持续增长，提出了一些可行的政策措施来促进能源消费、经济增长和碳排放之间的协调发展。
In the process of economic development, Energy consumption has become oneof the important sources of power in human social and economic sustainabledevelopment in the modern society. In recent years with the development of the worldeconomy, the energy consumption is also growing, hinder the role played in thedevelopment of human exhaust was already serious impact to the sustainabledevelopment of the world, which are due to excessive carbon dioxide emissionscaused by the "greenhouse effect" is the most obvious. Coordinated development ofenergy, economic growth and carbon emissions problem has become one of the mostimportant issues in each countries of the world.
As the world's largest developing country, China has become the largest countryof the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions than any other countries. Inthis context, how to coordinate the relationship between energy consumption andcarbon emissions, and economic growth in the development of low-carbon economyhas become one of the main obstacles to build a resource-saving andenvironment-friendly society with faster and better. The paper selects China's energyconsumption, economic growth and carbon emissions data among1978-2010years,and uses the Eviews7.0software to analysis the relationship among their combinationand makes conclusions as follows:
（1）China's energy consumption and real GDP Granger cause each other.Underthe1%significance level, GDP each the1%increase in energy consumption willdrive real GDP increased1.66%.In the short term, when China's energy consumptionincrease1%,it will drive the China's real GDP increase0.54%, however,the twobehind energy consumption plays the opposite role on the impact of China's real GDP.
(2) The growth of China's carbon emissions is caused by energyconsumption.There is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them,each1%increased in energy consumption,will drive the carbon emissions increasing1.03%,itgoes up to1.13%when in the short term.
(3) when analysis the relationship among the energy consumption、the carbonemissions, and economic growth，the energy consumption increased by1%,the Cemissions in China will increase to0.78%.In the short term,when the energyconsumption increase1%,the growth of China's carbon emissions will be up to1.19%,and China's carbon emissions speed will reduced by0.11%while the realGDP increase1%.
(4) In order to achieve our carbon emissions' targets and the sustainableeconomic growth,we should take some feasible policy measures to promote thecoordinated development among the energy consumption、the economic growth andthe carbon emissions.
引文
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