土地供应模式和供应量影响房价的理论探索与实证研究
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摘要
近年来,我国房地产价格的持续上涨成了社会关注的焦点。在关于房地产价格构成的讨论中,土地供应方式和供应量与房价的关系引起了争议,特别是2002年《招标拍卖挂牌出让国有土地使用权规定》和2004年71号令等文件下发后。国内已有的关于土地供应与房价的研究还不够系统,主要以定性分析为主,即使有少量的定量研究,也主要集中在地价与房价的关系之上,且多采用宏观数据。研究的不足造成政府和企业决策缺乏有效的科学依据和技术支持。在此背景下,本研究以土地供应模式和供应量对房价的影响为研究对象,比较系统地进行了实证研究和定量分析,试图在促进理论研究深化的同时,为房地产宏观调控,政府、企业和银行决策提供分析方法和工具。
本文从理论上分析了土地供应方式及其变革对房价、地价的影响。借鉴税收归宿理论,本研究认为土地供应方式变革是否影响房价及其影响程度的大小取决于房地产供求价格弹性。在土地供应量与房价的关系上,本研究认为,由于我国对土地开发实行容积率管制,因此,土地供应量的减少会在短期内造成可建筑面积的减少,进而提高房价。另外,本文从项目的角度构建了土地开发周期的理论模型,并认为在房价快速上涨期,增加土地供应量对降低房价的作用可能是不大的,因为开发商会囤积土地或惜售。
实证研究方面,本文主要做了以下三方面的研究来分析土地供应模式对房价的影响。首先,以全国和35个大中城市的房地产价格指数为样本,利用Granger因果关系检验法和城市比较法研究了土地供应方式变革对房价的影响。实证结果表明,房价与地价的关系、土地供应方式变革对房价的影响是非常复杂的,不同的研究对象有不同的影响力和作用机制。只有当区域的房地产需求非常旺盛时,土地供应方式变革才会大幅地抬高房价。随后,本文以杭州市为例研究了土地招拍挂对住房价格的影响,发现地王的出现可能导致周边楼盘提价,但价格调整能否实现则又取决于房地产市场本身。另外,以杭州市2005年在售楼盘为样本进行的计量研究表明,房价与土地公开出让并无统计意义上的显著关系。最后,本文以北京、广州、杭州等城市为研究对象,分析了小产权房现象和双限双竞供地模式对房价的影响。
在土地供应量影响房价的实证研究部分,本文首先利用全国31个省市的相关数据,构建了面板数据模型并就土地供应量对房价的影响做了定量研究。研究结果表明,一年前的土地供应量对房屋供应量的影响是正的,对房价的影响是负的,两者在统计意义上都是显著的,但增加土地供应量对降低房价的作用非常小。另外,两年前的土地供应量虽然影响房屋供应量,但不影响房价。随后,本文以杭州市为例分析了土地供应量、土地的有效开发与房价的关系。对杭州市而言,暂时还没有明显的证据认为2000年以后房价的上涨主要由土地供应量减少引起。相反,土地供应量受房价的影响更大。在土地开发周期与房价关系的调查研究上,本文跟踪了杭州市2000-2005年出让的141宗住宅用地,发现由于杭州市的房价在2002-2004年及2007年出现了快速上涨的势头,因此,市场上出现土地开发周期相应延长的现象。
通过上述理论探索和实证研究,本论文可能在以下几方面具有创新:(1)借鉴税收归宿理论研究了土地供应方式及其变革对房价的影响,提出土地供应方式变革是否影响房价及其影响程度的大小取决于房地产供求价格弹性;(2)以杭州市为例,从项目的角度调查了高价地的产品开发及“地王”出现后周边楼盘的售价变化,证实市场需求才是房价和地价的真正推力。另外,本文还运用Hedonic模型对杭州市2005年在售楼盘进行了定量研究,证实房价的最终确定与土地最初的获取方式并无统计意义上的显著关系;(3)研究了“双限双竞”供地模式对房价的影响,并得到了有参考意义的结论。(4)通过面板数据构建,从宏观层面分析了土地供应量对房价的影响,发现增加土地供应量有助于降低下一年的房价,但力度甚微;(5)构建了土地开发周期的理论模型,并以杭州市2000-2005年出让的住宅用地为样本进行了实证研究,研究结果表明,当房价急速上升时,市场上会出现土地开发周期相应延长的现象。
受数据、资料和时间限制,本文还存在很多不足,如实证研究未全部采用住宅价格数据;关于商品房需求价格弹性、土地供应方式与房价关系的实证研究还不够深入等,但本文的研究毕竟迈开了尝试性的第一步,今后可以从进一步完善计量模型,加强土地供应与房价关系的理论研究等方面予以深化。
In recent years, the rising of real estate price became a hot issue in China. Lots of people debate on the relationship between land supply, land granting ways and housing price, especially after "The Regulation on Granting Land Rights over State-Owned Land through Auction, Tender and Nominal Quotation" and "Decree No. 71 of 2004" were announced. Lots of people owned the rise of housing price to "public land leasing" and the inadequate land supply. The existing literatures on this issue in China often use qualitative analysis. Few quantitative analyses were nearly all about the relationship between land price and housing price with macro data. As a result of such theoretical deficiency, government and company's decision-making become rather difficult. Under this background, this dissertation researched on the effect of land supply mode and land supply amount on real estate price systematically. Several quantitative models were constructed; lots of case studies and empirical studies were done.
By adopting tax incidence theory, this study put forward that whether the reform of land granting ways affect real estate price depending on the price elasticity of housing supply and housing demand. On relationships between land supply amount and housing price, this research put forward that, as "Plot Ratio" is restricted in Mainland China, reduction of land supply amount may result in inadequate houses supply and boost housing price finally. But this didn't mean that increase of land supply amount would cut down housing price definitely. In a time when housing price was undergoing an upsurge, increment of land supply amount may have little effect on controlling housing price because the developers might not develop land or sell out houses quickly.
On how land supply mode affect real estate price, this research did three parts of empirical studies. First, an empirical study using Granger Causality and city comparisons method was done. The price indices of the whole country and 35 large and medium-sized cities were samples. The results showed that, the relationships between the reform, land price and real estate price were quite complicated. Different study areas may have different mechanisms. In a city, when the demands for houses were strong, the reform would boost real estate price greatly. Second, this research analyzed the effects of public land leasing on housing price taking Hangzhou as case study area. By market investigation, this study found that when a high-priced parcel of land was born, the real-estate projects nearby often raise their selling prices, but whether the new prices would be accepted by consumers was decided by market. Besides, a hedonic model based on 97 real-estate projects selling in 2005 found that housing price had no statistically significant relationship with public granting ways. Third, this research did case studies on "Country Property Rights Houses", "Price-restricted Land Granting mode" and "90/70 polices". Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou were study areas.
On how land supply amount affect real estate price, two empirical studies were done. First, two panel data models were constructed to test how land supply affect real estate price. The results showed that the increment of land supply last year had positive effects on house supply and negative effects on real estate price. Both two coefficients were statistically significant, but the impact was very little. Besides, land supply amount two years ago had positive effects on house supply but had no statistically significant effects on real estate price. Second, a case study of Hangzhou was done to analyses the relationships between land supply, land development and housing price. Descriptive analysis showed that, there was no clear evidence that the rising of housing price since 2000 in Hangzhou was caused by inadequate land supply. On the contrary, land supply amount was more deeply affected by housing price. Then, by tracking the 141 parcels of land which were public granted for residential use during 2000 to 2005, this study found that some parcels of land had longer development cycles when Hangzhou's housing price had an upsurge during 2002-2004 and 2007.
Through theoretical analyses and empirical studies, this dissertation may have innovations in the following aspects: (1) Adopting tax incidence theory to explore how reform of land granting ways affect real estate price. Theory analysis and empirical studies showed that the reform would affect real estate price greatly where demand for houses were very strong; (2) Market investigation on Hangzhou by tracking how high-priced land developed and what was the effects of "King Land" on the price of real-estate projects nearby showed that market was the real hand in deciding housing price and land price. Besides, a Hedonic model based on the real-estate projects selling in 2005 showed that housing price has no statistically significant relationship with public land granting. (3) Did a study on "Dual Restrictions and Competing" land granting mode and got referential results. (4) Did a quantitative analysis on how land supply amount affect real estate price using panel data models. The results showed that increasing land supply help to pull down real estate price next year but the impact was very little. (5) Theoretical analysis and empirical studies showed that, when housing price was undergoing an upsurge, the land development cycles would be longer in a whole.
Restricted by data and time, this study had several shortcomings, such as didn't adopt housing price in all empirical study parts, not rigorous enough in researching relationships between price elasticity, land granting ways reform and real estate price. After all, this dissertation has made the first step. Theoretical analysis and quantitative models can be done more profoundly in the future.
本文从理论上分析了土地供应方式及其变革对房价、地价的影响。借鉴税收归宿理论,本研究认为土地供应方式变革是否影响房价及其影响程度的大小取决于房地产供求价格弹性。在土地供应量与房价的关系上,本研究认为,由于我国对土地开发实行容积率管制,因此,土地供应量的减少会在短期内造成可建筑面积的减少,进而提高房价。另外,本文从项目的角度构建了土地开发周期的理论模型,并认为在房价快速上涨期,增加土地供应量对降低房价的作用可能是不大的,因为开发商会囤积土地或惜售。
实证研究方面,本文主要做了以下三方面的研究来分析土地供应模式对房价的影响。首先,以全国和35个大中城市的房地产价格指数为样本,利用Granger因果关系检验法和城市比较法研究了土地供应方式变革对房价的影响。实证结果表明,房价与地价的关系、土地供应方式变革对房价的影响是非常复杂的,不同的研究对象有不同的影响力和作用机制。只有当区域的房地产需求非常旺盛时,土地供应方式变革才会大幅地抬高房价。随后,本文以杭州市为例研究了土地招拍挂对住房价格的影响,发现地王的出现可能导致周边楼盘提价,但价格调整能否实现则又取决于房地产市场本身。另外,以杭州市2005年在售楼盘为样本进行的计量研究表明,房价与土地公开出让并无统计意义上的显著关系。最后,本文以北京、广州、杭州等城市为研究对象,分析了小产权房现象和双限双竞供地模式对房价的影响。
在土地供应量影响房价的实证研究部分,本文首先利用全国31个省市的相关数据,构建了面板数据模型并就土地供应量对房价的影响做了定量研究。研究结果表明,一年前的土地供应量对房屋供应量的影响是正的,对房价的影响是负的,两者在统计意义上都是显著的,但增加土地供应量对降低房价的作用非常小。另外,两年前的土地供应量虽然影响房屋供应量,但不影响房价。随后,本文以杭州市为例分析了土地供应量、土地的有效开发与房价的关系。对杭州市而言,暂时还没有明显的证据认为2000年以后房价的上涨主要由土地供应量减少引起。相反,土地供应量受房价的影响更大。在土地开发周期与房价关系的调查研究上,本文跟踪了杭州市2000-2005年出让的141宗住宅用地,发现由于杭州市的房价在2002-2004年及2007年出现了快速上涨的势头,因此,市场上出现土地开发周期相应延长的现象。
通过上述理论探索和实证研究,本论文可能在以下几方面具有创新:(1)借鉴税收归宿理论研究了土地供应方式及其变革对房价的影响,提出土地供应方式变革是否影响房价及其影响程度的大小取决于房地产供求价格弹性;(2)以杭州市为例,从项目的角度调查了高价地的产品开发及“地王”出现后周边楼盘的售价变化,证实市场需求才是房价和地价的真正推力。另外,本文还运用Hedonic模型对杭州市2005年在售楼盘进行了定量研究,证实房价的最终确定与土地最初的获取方式并无统计意义上的显著关系;(3)研究了“双限双竞”供地模式对房价的影响,并得到了有参考意义的结论。(4)通过面板数据构建,从宏观层面分析了土地供应量对房价的影响,发现增加土地供应量有助于降低下一年的房价,但力度甚微;(5)构建了土地开发周期的理论模型,并以杭州市2000-2005年出让的住宅用地为样本进行了实证研究,研究结果表明,当房价急速上升时,市场上会出现土地开发周期相应延长的现象。
受数据、资料和时间限制,本文还存在很多不足,如实证研究未全部采用住宅价格数据;关于商品房需求价格弹性、土地供应方式与房价关系的实证研究还不够深入等,但本文的研究毕竟迈开了尝试性的第一步,今后可以从进一步完善计量模型,加强土地供应与房价关系的理论研究等方面予以深化。
In recent years, the rising of real estate price became a hot issue in China. Lots of people debate on the relationship between land supply, land granting ways and housing price, especially after "The Regulation on Granting Land Rights over State-Owned Land through Auction, Tender and Nominal Quotation" and "Decree No. 71 of 2004" were announced. Lots of people owned the rise of housing price to "public land leasing" and the inadequate land supply. The existing literatures on this issue in China often use qualitative analysis. Few quantitative analyses were nearly all about the relationship between land price and housing price with macro data. As a result of such theoretical deficiency, government and company's decision-making become rather difficult. Under this background, this dissertation researched on the effect of land supply mode and land supply amount on real estate price systematically. Several quantitative models were constructed; lots of case studies and empirical studies were done.
By adopting tax incidence theory, this study put forward that whether the reform of land granting ways affect real estate price depending on the price elasticity of housing supply and housing demand. On relationships between land supply amount and housing price, this research put forward that, as "Plot Ratio" is restricted in Mainland China, reduction of land supply amount may result in inadequate houses supply and boost housing price finally. But this didn't mean that increase of land supply amount would cut down housing price definitely. In a time when housing price was undergoing an upsurge, increment of land supply amount may have little effect on controlling housing price because the developers might not develop land or sell out houses quickly.
On how land supply mode affect real estate price, this research did three parts of empirical studies. First, an empirical study using Granger Causality and city comparisons method was done. The price indices of the whole country and 35 large and medium-sized cities were samples. The results showed that, the relationships between the reform, land price and real estate price were quite complicated. Different study areas may have different mechanisms. In a city, when the demands for houses were strong, the reform would boost real estate price greatly. Second, this research analyzed the effects of public land leasing on housing price taking Hangzhou as case study area. By market investigation, this study found that when a high-priced parcel of land was born, the real-estate projects nearby often raise their selling prices, but whether the new prices would be accepted by consumers was decided by market. Besides, a hedonic model based on 97 real-estate projects selling in 2005 found that housing price had no statistically significant relationship with public granting ways. Third, this research did case studies on "Country Property Rights Houses", "Price-restricted Land Granting mode" and "90/70 polices". Beijing, Guangzhou and Hangzhou were study areas.
On how land supply amount affect real estate price, two empirical studies were done. First, two panel data models were constructed to test how land supply affect real estate price. The results showed that the increment of land supply last year had positive effects on house supply and negative effects on real estate price. Both two coefficients were statistically significant, but the impact was very little. Besides, land supply amount two years ago had positive effects on house supply but had no statistically significant effects on real estate price. Second, a case study of Hangzhou was done to analyses the relationships between land supply, land development and housing price. Descriptive analysis showed that, there was no clear evidence that the rising of housing price since 2000 in Hangzhou was caused by inadequate land supply. On the contrary, land supply amount was more deeply affected by housing price. Then, by tracking the 141 parcels of land which were public granted for residential use during 2000 to 2005, this study found that some parcels of land had longer development cycles when Hangzhou's housing price had an upsurge during 2002-2004 and 2007.
Through theoretical analyses and empirical studies, this dissertation may have innovations in the following aspects: (1) Adopting tax incidence theory to explore how reform of land granting ways affect real estate price. Theory analysis and empirical studies showed that the reform would affect real estate price greatly where demand for houses were very strong; (2) Market investigation on Hangzhou by tracking how high-priced land developed and what was the effects of "King Land" on the price of real-estate projects nearby showed that market was the real hand in deciding housing price and land price. Besides, a Hedonic model based on the real-estate projects selling in 2005 showed that housing price has no statistically significant relationship with public land granting. (3) Did a study on "Dual Restrictions and Competing" land granting mode and got referential results. (4) Did a quantitative analysis on how land supply amount affect real estate price using panel data models. The results showed that increasing land supply help to pull down real estate price next year but the impact was very little. (5) Theoretical analysis and empirical studies showed that, when housing price was undergoing an upsurge, the land development cycles would be longer in a whole.
Restricted by data and time, this study had several shortcomings, such as didn't adopt housing price in all empirical study parts, not rigorous enough in researching relationships between price elasticity, land granting ways reform and real estate price. After all, this dissertation has made the first step. Theoretical analysis and quantitative models can be done more profoundly in the future.
引文
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