我国城市土地供应对住房市场的影响研究
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摘要
住房问题关系着社会安定,关系着百姓的安居乐业,一直是我国政府最为重视的民生问题。但是近年来我国住房市场出现了价格上涨过快,供应结构不合理,供需矛盾突出等一系列问题,引起了全社会的广泛关注。本文试图通过研究住房市场的源头——城市土地供应及其对住房市场的影响,为解决住房市场存在的问题提供决策参考。
本论文首先分析了城市土地供应的内涵,接着从供应方式的发展变化、供应主体的发展变化以及供应模式的发展变化三个角度分析了我国城市土地供应的变迁沿革。然后对城市土地供应机制进行了分析,并着重分析了供应量、供应结构和供应方式。
本论文从城市土地供应机制中与住房市场相关性最大的供应方式、供应量和供应结构三个方面系统分析了城市土地供应对我国住房市场的影响：①引入了Stackelberg博弈模型分析招拍挂供地方式下住房市场运行机制和地价房价关系,认为应该提高土地供应市场化程度,在地价相对较高的情况下,政府可以在以招标方式供应土地的时候,选择那些能够充分利用土地面积的开发商作为中标人以降低土地价格；②将城市土地供应量和供应结构相关政策与同期房地产市场宏观调控结合起来进行了全面的政策梳理；③利用时差相关性分析对土地供应量作用于住房市场的影响进行了定量分析。最后,本文利用南京土地市场和房地产市场的相关数据,在分析城市土地需求影响因素的基础上,通过相关性分析得到影响城市土地供应的影响因子,运用多元回归分析建立了城市土地合理供应决策模型并对南京市未来几年的土地供应量进行了预测。从理论和实际操作两个方面为解决我国住房市场存在的问题以及促进住房市场健康有序运行提供了有效借鉴。
Our government always make the most of the housing issue,tha's because the issue concerns the public stability and the people living and working.But in recent years,the housing price have climbed quickly,the housing output structure isn't reasonable and the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding.These problems have been concerned by all of society.This paper try to research the urban land supply and it's impact on housing output market,which is the headstream of housing output market.The writer hopes that it could be of some help in decision for the government to resolve these problem.
The paper analyses the connotation of urban land supply. After that, the paper analyses the development and change of urban land supply in terms of he development and change of supply way, supply subject and supply mode.Then the paper analyses urban land supply mechanism and focuses on land supply, supply structure and supply way.
The paper analyses systematically the impact of urban land supply on housing output market in terms of land supply, supply structure and supply way:①The paper introduce the Stackelberg gametheoretical model to analyse the operating mechanism of the housing market and the land and housing prices relationship;②The paper summary the policies about urban land supply level and supply structure associated with the same term macro-control of real estate market;③The paper analyses the effect of urban land supply to housing market via Time-Difference correlation analysis. Finally,the paper analyses the factor of influence of land supply by means of correlation analysis on the basis of the analysis of the factor of influence of land demand,using the datas from Nanjing land market and housing market.Then the paper make the model of urban land reasonable supply decision by means of multivariate linear regression analysis.And the paper forecasts the land supply of Nanjing in the next three years.The paper provides valid mirror for resolving these problems of housing market and promoting housing market sound development in China.
本论文首先分析了城市土地供应的内涵,接着从供应方式的发展变化、供应主体的发展变化以及供应模式的发展变化三个角度分析了我国城市土地供应的变迁沿革。然后对城市土地供应机制进行了分析,并着重分析了供应量、供应结构和供应方式。
本论文从城市土地供应机制中与住房市场相关性最大的供应方式、供应量和供应结构三个方面系统分析了城市土地供应对我国住房市场的影响：①引入了Stackelberg博弈模型分析招拍挂供地方式下住房市场运行机制和地价房价关系,认为应该提高土地供应市场化程度,在地价相对较高的情况下,政府可以在以招标方式供应土地的时候,选择那些能够充分利用土地面积的开发商作为中标人以降低土地价格；②将城市土地供应量和供应结构相关政策与同期房地产市场宏观调控结合起来进行了全面的政策梳理；③利用时差相关性分析对土地供应量作用于住房市场的影响进行了定量分析。最后,本文利用南京土地市场和房地产市场的相关数据,在分析城市土地需求影响因素的基础上,通过相关性分析得到影响城市土地供应的影响因子,运用多元回归分析建立了城市土地合理供应决策模型并对南京市未来几年的土地供应量进行了预测。从理论和实际操作两个方面为解决我国住房市场存在的问题以及促进住房市场健康有序运行提供了有效借鉴。
Our government always make the most of the housing issue,tha's because the issue concerns the public stability and the people living and working.But in recent years,the housing price have climbed quickly,the housing output structure isn't reasonable and the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding.These problems have been concerned by all of society.This paper try to research the urban land supply and it's impact on housing output market,which is the headstream of housing output market.The writer hopes that it could be of some help in decision for the government to resolve these problem.
The paper analyses the connotation of urban land supply. After that, the paper analyses the development and change of urban land supply in terms of he development and change of supply way, supply subject and supply mode.Then the paper analyses urban land supply mechanism and focuses on land supply, supply structure and supply way.
The paper analyses systematically the impact of urban land supply on housing output market in terms of land supply, supply structure and supply way:①The paper introduce the Stackelberg gametheoretical model to analyse the operating mechanism of the housing market and the land and housing prices relationship;②The paper summary the policies about urban land supply level and supply structure associated with the same term macro-control of real estate market;③The paper analyses the effect of urban land supply to housing market via Time-Difference correlation analysis. Finally,the paper analyses the factor of influence of land supply by means of correlation analysis on the basis of the analysis of the factor of influence of land demand,using the datas from Nanjing land market and housing market.Then the paper make the model of urban land reasonable supply decision by means of multivariate linear regression analysis.And the paper forecasts the land supply of Nanjing in the next three years.The paper provides valid mirror for resolving these problems of housing market and promoting housing market sound development in China.
引文
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[5]Dowall David E.Bangkok:A Profile of an Efficiently Performing Housing Market[J].Urban Studies,1989,26(3):327-339
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[7]Geoff Kenny.Modeling the Demand and Supply Sides of the Housing Market:Evidence from Irelang [J].Economic Modeling,1999,16(3):389-409
[8]Ruijue,William C.Wheaton.Effects of Restrictive Land Supply on Housing in Hong Kong:An Econometric Analysis[J].Journal of Housing Research,1994.5(2):263-291
[9]Alyousha Ahmed, Christopher, Tsoukis.Ricardian Causal Ordering and the Relation between House and Land Prices:Evidence from England[J].Applied Economic Letters,1998 (5):325-328
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[12]Cheshire Paul, Sheppard Stephen.The Welfare Economics of Land Use Planning [J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2002,52(2):242-269
[13]Kauko,Tom.The Importance of the Context and the Level of Analysis:Author's Response[J].Housing, Theory and Society,2003,20:134-136
[14]Raymond Y.C.Tse.Housing Price,Land Supply and Revenue from Land Sales[J].Urban Studies,1998,35 (8),1377,1392
[15]Tsoukis,Christopher,Alyousha Ahmed.Implications of Intertemporal Optimization for House and Land Prices[J].Applied Economics,1999(31):1565-1571
[16]Casey J.Dawkins, Arthur C.Nelson.Urban Containment Policies and Housing Prices:An International Comparison with Implications for Future Reseaech[J].Land Use Policy,2002(19):1-12
[17]George R.Parsons.The Effect of Coastal Land Use Restricitions on Housing Prices:A Repeat Sale Analysis[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,1992.22(1):25-37
[18]Monk,Sarah,Whitehead,C.M.Land Supply and Housing:a Case-study[J]Housing Studies,1996,11 (3):407-425
[19]Cheshire Paul, Sheppard Stephen.The Welfare Economics of Land Use Planning[J].Journal of Urban Economics,2002.52(2):242-269
[20]Alan Moran.Land Controls at Heart of Housing Crisis[N].The Herald Sun.Saturday,August 25,2007
[21]Richard K.Green.Land Use Regulation and the Price of Housing in a Suburban Wisconsin County [J] Journal of Housing Economics,1999(8):144-159
[22]John M.Quigley, Steven Raphael. Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California [J]. American Economic Review,2005,95(2):323-328
[23]Gerard C.S.Mildner.Growth Management in the Portland Region and the Housing Boom of the 1990's[R].Portland State University.Urban Futures Working Paper, No.98-1.1998
[24]Casey J.Dawkins, Arthur C.Nelson.Urban Containment Policies and Housing Prices:An International Comparison with Implications for Future Research[J].Land Use Policy,2002(19):1-12
[25]马欣.土地供给与房地产市场关系研究[J].建筑经济,2007(04)：54-56
[26]宫玉泉.土地供应政策与房地产市场[J].中国物价,2005(07)：66-68
[27]娄文龙,朱青.土地供给对房地产发展之影响[J].湖北广播电视大学学报,2004(09)：93-95
[28]何鑫.土地供给制度改革及其对房地产业的影响[J].商业时代,2008(31)：93-94
[29]窦方,王莹.土地供应政策对房地产市场影响分析[J].现代农业科技,2009(23)：313-314
[30]王海玫.土地供应制度对房地产市场宏观调控研究[J].财经研究,2008(05)：19
[31]陈光渡,励杰,周寅康.城市土地供应与房地产业可持续发展[J].国土资源,2004(04)：28-30
[32]任荣荣,刘洪玉.土地供应对住房价格的影响机理——对北京市的实证研究[J].价格理论与实践,2007(10)：40-41
[33]黄忠华,虞晓芬,杜雪君.土地供给对住房价格影响的实证研究——以上海市为例[J].经济地理,2009(04)：624-627
[34]胡晓添,濮励杰,陈志刚,刘长胜.土地因素对房价的时效影响实证分析——以南京市为例[J].中国土地科学,2005(12)：36-39
[35]张庆佳,林依标.土地有效供应对房价的影响分析[J].福建论坛,2008(04)：22-23
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