基于延迟策略的多产品两阶段生产优化决策
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摘要
当前市场环境下，市场需求呈现个性化、多样化和波动性大的特点，如何有效匹配有限产品供给能力与波动性需求是一个亟待解决的问题。延迟生产和延迟定价可以调节产品供给量与需求的波动性。延迟定价在获取准确的市场需求信息后再制定产品销售价格，能有效调节需求，减小供给与需求的不一致。延迟生产将最终产品的定制延迟到接到客户订单时，根据订单要求快速完成最终产品的差异化生产与交付过程，能有效调节生产，从而应对不确定的市场需求。因此，延迟策略被广泛应用和深入研究。但是，现有研究大多是采用数值分析方法进行的，并忽略了延迟生产的定制成本、多产品之间的替代性及市场规模变化之间的相关性等因素对生产决策的影响。对此，本文引入延迟生产的定制成本，通过建立两阶段规划模型，采用库恩塔克定理和逆向推导的方法求解，分别研究需求相互独立的多产品、市场规模相关的多产品和需求相互替代的多产品两阶段规划最优生产决策，以期为生产实践提供更科学的决策依据。主要研究内容和创新包括：
首先，建立了需求独立的多产品两阶段规划模型，求解比较得到了延迟生产的适用条件以及各种生产模式所对应的有效需求空间，分析了定制成本、最终产品市场规模比率、需求斜率及比率等因素对是否采用延迟生产模式以及采用延迟生产时通用中间产品、各种最终产品的产量及定价等决策的影响。
其次，建立了市场规模正相关和负相关的多产品两阶段规划模型，求解比较得到了延迟生产的适用条件，刻画了各种情况下的需求空间，给出了不同需求空间下的最优产量组合，分析了通用中间产品的替代效应，研究了最终产品的定价上限比、生产成本比、市场需求总规模等因素对产量和定价决策的影响。
最后，建立了需求替代的多产品两阶段规划模型，求解比较得到了延迟生产的适用条件，给出了不同需求空间下的最优产量组合，分析了定制成本、需求替代度、市场不确定度和市场规模相关度等因素对延迟生产决策和利润的影响，并分析了采取清仓定价时的生产决策及其影响因素。
In the current market, with the proliferation of product categories and accelerationof product changing speed, the customer demand appears the characteristics of largefluctuation, diversity and individuality. Manufacturing operations are facing with manypressures of increasing small lots ratio, shortening delivery time, improving productquality, reducing costs and improving the service. So how to match the limited productsupply capacity and the uncertain demand better is an urgent problem. Usually, theflexible business and marketing modes are applied to adjust the product supply anddemand volatility, such as postponed production and postponed pricing. Postponedpricing develop the product sales price only after the accurate information on marketdemand is available, by doing this, the inconsistency of supply and demand can bereduced. Postponed production can regulate the production effectively to resist theuncertain market demand by delaying the customized production process until theaccurate order information is received.
Firstly, the literatures on postponed production and postponed pricing are reviewedso as to pinpoint the importance of research of postponed production and postponedpricing in production decision, and at the same time, the two-stage programming modelcan be applied to solve the multi-product production problem.
Secondly, the two-stage programming model of multi-product under independentdemand is set. When the unit of postponed production cost does not exceed a certainthreshold, postponed production will be effective, by comparing the Kuhn-Tuckercondition under non-postponement production and postponed production. And then, thefactors influencing the optimal production quantity and profit are analyzed, such asmarket size, the slope of demand curve, and so on.
Thirdly, the two-stage programming model of multi-product is set respectivelywhen the market sizes are positively or negatively related. When the market sizes arepositively related, whether to adopt the postponed production depend on the maximumpricing threshold and production cost. When the market sizes are negatively related,whether to adopt the postponed production depend on the total market demand. Besides,the substitution of generic products is analyzed in each condition.
Finally, the two-stage programming model of multi-product is set undernon-postponement production and postponed production based on the demand substitution and linear demand function. By analyzing the model, the factors influencingthe production quantity and profit are found out, such as postponed production cost,substitution degree, the uncertain degree of market and the related degree of marketsize.
首先，建立了需求独立的多产品两阶段规划模型，求解比较得到了延迟生产的适用条件以及各种生产模式所对应的有效需求空间，分析了定制成本、最终产品市场规模比率、需求斜率及比率等因素对是否采用延迟生产模式以及采用延迟生产时通用中间产品、各种最终产品的产量及定价等决策的影响。
其次，建立了市场规模正相关和负相关的多产品两阶段规划模型，求解比较得到了延迟生产的适用条件，刻画了各种情况下的需求空间，给出了不同需求空间下的最优产量组合，分析了通用中间产品的替代效应，研究了最终产品的定价上限比、生产成本比、市场需求总规模等因素对产量和定价决策的影响。
最后，建立了需求替代的多产品两阶段规划模型，求解比较得到了延迟生产的适用条件，给出了不同需求空间下的最优产量组合，分析了定制成本、需求替代度、市场不确定度和市场规模相关度等因素对延迟生产决策和利润的影响，并分析了采取清仓定价时的生产决策及其影响因素。
In the current market, with the proliferation of product categories and accelerationof product changing speed, the customer demand appears the characteristics of largefluctuation, diversity and individuality. Manufacturing operations are facing with manypressures of increasing small lots ratio, shortening delivery time, improving productquality, reducing costs and improving the service. So how to match the limited productsupply capacity and the uncertain demand better is an urgent problem. Usually, theflexible business and marketing modes are applied to adjust the product supply anddemand volatility, such as postponed production and postponed pricing. Postponedpricing develop the product sales price only after the accurate information on marketdemand is available, by doing this, the inconsistency of supply and demand can bereduced. Postponed production can regulate the production effectively to resist theuncertain market demand by delaying the customized production process until theaccurate order information is received.
Firstly, the literatures on postponed production and postponed pricing are reviewedso as to pinpoint the importance of research of postponed production and postponedpricing in production decision, and at the same time, the two-stage programming modelcan be applied to solve the multi-product production problem.
Secondly, the two-stage programming model of multi-product under independentdemand is set. When the unit of postponed production cost does not exceed a certainthreshold, postponed production will be effective, by comparing the Kuhn-Tuckercondition under non-postponement production and postponed production. And then, thefactors influencing the optimal production quantity and profit are analyzed, such asmarket size, the slope of demand curve, and so on.
Thirdly, the two-stage programming model of multi-product is set respectivelywhen the market sizes are positively or negatively related. When the market sizes arepositively related, whether to adopt the postponed production depend on the maximumpricing threshold and production cost. When the market sizes are negatively related,whether to adopt the postponed production depend on the total market demand. Besides,the substitution of generic products is analyzed in each condition.
Finally, the two-stage programming model of multi-product is set undernon-postponement production and postponed production based on the demand substitution and linear demand function. By analyzing the model, the factors influencingthe production quantity and profit are found out, such as postponed production cost,substitution degree, the uncertain degree of market and the related degree of marketsize.
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