基于因子分析法对我国生物制药上市公司投资价值分析
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摘要
本文对国内外文献进行了广泛阅读,发现生物制药行业的研究多局限于对宏观上的把握,即是从整个行业的特点、地位、我国生物制药的现状、发展趋势来分析,生物制药在21世纪将有极大的发展潜力。而对生物制药行业的定价进行研究的相关文献极其稀少,为数不多的研究也仅仅是在以前文献的基础上进行小修小补。现有文献对于生物制药行业的定价一般采用折现现金流法、修正的折现现金流法以或实物期权为基础的定价方法。对于生物制药行业定价方法研究相对较少,在资本市场上能为投资者提供的参考意义很小。
本文以此为研究背景,对整个生物制药行业进行了充分的分析和论证。生物制药行业发展现状：(1)全球生物制药产业的发展极不平衡。一是各国生物制药产业发展水平极不平衡。二是生物技术药物产品发展极不平衡。在美国、欧盟等主要生物制药强国批准上市的500余种生物技术药物中,排名前10种产品的销售额便占整个生物制药市场的50%以上。在前50种产品中,动物细胞产品无论从数量还是从销售额来看都占65%—70%左右。三是生物医药产业化进程明显加快,市场规模迅速扩张。近20年来以基因工程、细胞工程、酶工程为代表的现代生物技术迅猛发展,人类基因组计划等重大技术相继取得突破,现代生物技术在医学治疗方面广泛应用,生物医药产业化进程明显加快。(2)生物医药发展呈现市场集中、产品集中的显著趋势,发达国家占据主导地位。一是少数发达国家在全球生物医药市场中处于产业主导地位。在世界药品市场中,美国、欧洲、日本三大药品市场的份额超过了80%。二是大的跨国公司主导了世界专利药市场。三是在产品市场领域,单品种销售的市场集中度也呈现小断增高趋势。(3)发达国家已形成若干生物医药产业密集区。(4)战略性技术同盟成为新药开发的成功模式。伴随着跨国制药企业在全球医药市场中的地位不断上升,其产业集中度和垄断程度也呈现出上升趋势。
我国生物制药产业的现状是：1989年,中国工程院院士侯云德研发的基因重组人干扰素α1b成为国内批准的第一个生物技术药物,这标志着中国生物制药产业正式拉开序幕。虽然经过20多年的发展,中国的生物制药产业并没有实现预期的增长势头从而也没有成为促进中国经济增长的支柱产业。而且,与全球生物制药产业以及中国生物科学技术基础研究的迅猛发展相比,中国生物产业的发展确实是非常滞后的,而且存在着重复生产严重、企业规模小、效率低等突出问题。生物技术制药企业整体的研发实力不足、创新能力较差,以及我国过去在药品生产、审查和知识产权保护等方面投入不足也是制约中国生物产业发展的突出问题。从我国生物制药产业投资现状看：生物制药产业对于创业投资的吸引力不强,从2001年开始,我国境内共有1080个企业获得创业投资资金49.857亿美元,但生物制药领域分别只占企业数量和资金总额的8.5%和5.2%,远远低于其他产业。在15年生物技术产业资本市场融资历史中,生物技术产业共计融资121.48亿元,这些资金主要投向了生物技术制药、生物技术研究、生物技术发酵工程、现代农业生物技术等领域。其中生物技术制药领域占了融资总量的40%,是获得投资额最多的生物技术产业领域。在生物制药领域,受惠资本市场最大的是基因工程多肤药物,约占50亿元生物制药资本市场的一半,其余依次是检测试剂、血液制品和基因工程疫苗。
我国生物制药行业同时面临巨大的发展机遇：国家对生物技术的重视以及宏观政策的扶持。国家已经把包括生物制药在内的生物技术和产业作为重点发展的新领域之一,同时制定了一系列的优惠政策。我国生物制药的发展已经进入基于人类基因组草图完成的发展阶段,人们对基因时代有良好的预期。人类基因序列已对外公开,随着人类基因组精确基因序列图谱绘制完成,人类基因序列将全部输入公共基因数据库,基因序列将无机密可言,我国生物制药业有望在一个新的起点上与国外制药企业展开竞争。许多生物技术药物专利即将到期,我国生物制药产业将有机会进行选择性的仿制。国际生物制药业向中国转移。随着许多大型生物制药公司进入中国,我国与国外大型制药企业和科研机构的合作将大大增加。可以在技术和知识产权共享的前提下,实现资源整合。同时我国进行医药卫生体制改革将会给生物医药行业以巨大的发展机遇“医药卫生体制改革近期重点实施方案(2009—2011年)。根据《中共中央国务院关于深化医药卫生体制改革的意见》(中发[2009]6号,以下简称《意见》),2009—2011年重点抓好五项改革：一是加快推进基本医疗保障制度建设,二是初步建立国家基本药物制度,三是健全基层医疗卫生服务体系,四是促进基本公共卫生服务逐步均等化,五是推进公立医院改革试点。……”①随着中国经济发展,国家实力进一步增强。在关注民生的问题上得到了高度重视,为解决中国老百姓看病难,看病贵”的问题。政府将进行进一步医药卫生体制改革,加强医疗基本保障制度,使我国老百姓切切实实享受到经济发展成果。为了实现改革的目标,经初步测2009—2011年各级政府需要投入8500亿元,其中中央政府投入3318亿元。随着医药卫生体制的改革,我国基层城镇职工和广大农民朋友的医疗卫生需求将得到极大刺激,这将是一个巨大的市场,对于我国生物制药行业的发展将是一个千载难逢的机遇。
在进行方法选择时,笔者对直接加权平均法、沃尔评分法、功效系数法、AHP法、模糊分析法等进行比较,得出他们各自的优劣点。最后本文采用了综合分析法中的因子分析法,同时本文进一步对因子分析方法进行介绍。采用本方法涉及到因子的选取,本文根据生物制药行业的特点选取了8个具有代表性的因子：资产收益率、净利润率、固定资产周转率、应收账款周转率、经营现金流量对负债比率、流动比率、主营业务收入增长率、净利润增长率来对我国生物制药上市公司的盈利能力、抗风险能力、成长能力、经营管理能力进行分析。在指标选择的基础上,根据上海证券交易所提供的08年数据进行数据的收集和整理,得出本文所需要的数据。然后由SPSS统计软件进行统计分析。统计得出了四个较为显著的公共因子,根据公共因子对整个方差贡献的大小分项进行计算得出我们需要的每个上市公司的因子得分。根据统计得出公司价值被市场投资者明显忽视的上市公司有：600796钱江生化、002252上海莱士、000078海王生物、002038双鹭药业、600798鲁抗医药、000930丰原生化、600866星湖科技、600195中牧股份。这些股票按照因子分析结果在2009年具有投资价值,投资者可以以此作为参考获得高于市场的平均收益。002007华兰生物、600530交大昂立这两只股票在通过因子得分和市盈率比较分析中,相对于2008年12月31日的其他生物制药公司是体现了其价值,也就是说在同类生物制药公司中没有被高估也没有被低估。
本文采用的因子分析方法是对公司现有经营管理能力,盈利能力,成长能力,抗风险能力的一个较为狭窄的分析,所以分析得出的结论对于生物制药这样的高科技行业具有很大的局限性。希望投资者在本文的基础上加入时间序列数据进行分析,同时对于生物制药动向进行跟踪,实时对生物制药的数据进行更新,做出调整,以便于有更客观公正的研究结论,以便投资者在此基础上获得超额收益。
Equity investment in its high rates of return and high liquidity popular around the world the favor of investors in the Chinese special economic circumstances came the stock market has also been sought after domestic investors, but in China's unique ownership structure and operating mechanism Under the domestic factors affecting the stock price is more complex. China's stock market has just gone through the past 20 springs and autumns, many investors because there is no suitable for the Chinese market, investment analysis tools, "Dan Chen shares the sea";, therefore, to find a suitable for the characteristics of China's stock market investment theory used to guide the investment behavior of investors seem are needed urgently.
In this paper, a wide range of literature to read at home and abroad, bio-pharmaceutical industry, a lot of research is only limited to the macro level of certainty, that is, the characteristics of the whole industry, position, status of China's biopharmaceutical development trend analysis, but also on China's bio-pharmaceutical industry and the world bio-pharmaceutical industry development of the prospect, pointing out that bio-pharmaceuticals in the 21st century will have great potential for development. But for bio-pharmaceutical industry's pricing analysis of the relevant literature is extremely rare, only a small number of studies from the previous literature on the basis of minor repairs. For the bio-pharmaceutical industry's pricing using discounted cash flow method, the modified discounted cash flow method as well as real options-based pricing method. Pricing methods for the study of bio-pharmaceutical industry is relatively small, the capital markets can provide reference for investors and their views on the proposed small。
This paper studies this as background, the whole bio-pharmaceutical industries a full analysis and demonstration. Development of bio-pharmaceutical industry:(1) Global bio-pharmaceutical industry development is extremely uneven. First, the development level of countries in bio-pharmaceutical industry is highly unbalanced; two biotechnology pharmaceutical product development is extremely uneven. In the United States, the European Union and other major bio-pharmaceutical powers of more than 500 kinds of licensed biotechnology drugs, among the top 10 products accounted for sales of the biopharmaceutical market, over 50%.
The first 50 products, animal cell product in terms of both quantity and terms of sales accounted for 65% a 70%. Biomedical industry clearly accelerated, the rapid expansion of market size; the past 20 years of genetic engineering, cell engineering, enzyme engineering, represented by the rapid development of modern biotechnology, human genome project have made significant technological breakthroughs of modern biotechnology in the medical treatment extensive application of bio-pharmaceutical industry to speed up the process significantly. (2) showing the development of bio-pharmaceutical market concentration, product concentration of a significant trend in the developed countries dominate. First, a few developed countries in the global biopharmaceutical market leading position in the industry. In the world pharmaceutical market, the United States, Europe, Japan's three major drug market share of more than 80%. Second, large multinational companies dominate the world patent medicine market. The third is in the product market segments, sales of single-species also show a small degree of market concentration is higher off the trend. (3) The developed countries have formed a number of bio-pharmaceutical industry-intensive areas. (4) strategic technology alliance to become a successful model for drug development. Along with multinational pharmaceutical companies in the global pharmaceutical market position in the rising and its level of industrial concentration and monopoly also shown a rising trend.
The status quo of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry is:In 1989, the Chinese Academy of Engineering Hou de R& D Recombinant human interferon alb become the first approved biotech drugs, which marks the Chinese bio-pharmaceutical industry in full swing. Even after 20 years of development, China's bio-pharmaceutical industry has not achieved the expected growth momentum and hence promote China's economic growth did not become a pillar industry. Moreover, with the global bio-pharmaceutical industry and China's basic research in biological science and technology, compared to the rapid development of China's biological industry development is indeed a very backward, and there is a serious duplication of production, firm size is small, low efficiency of the outstanding problems. Biotechnology, pharmaceutical R& D strength of the overall lack of ability to innovate less, as well as our past drug production, review and inadequate investment in intellectual property protection, etc. are also constrained the development of China's biological industry outstanding issues. Investment from China's current situation of bio-pharmaceutical industry:Bio-pharmaceutical industry for the attractiveness of venture capital is not strong, since 2001, China's enterprises in a total of 1080 venture investment funds 4.9857 billion U.S. dollars, but the bio-pharmaceutical sector were only the total number of enterprises and capital 8.5%and 5.2%, far less than other industries. The biotechnology industry in 15 years the history of capital market financing, financing of the biotechnology industry a total of 12.148 billion yuan, these funds are mainly invested in biotechnology, pharmaceutical, biotechnology research, biotechnology, fermentation engineering, modern agricultural biotechnology and other fields. In which the field of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals accounted for 40%of the total financing, is to obtain the largest amount of investment the field of biotechnology industry. In the bio-pharmaceutical field, will benefit the capital market is the biggest genetic engineering, peptide drugs, account for about 5 billion yuan biopharmaceutical half of the capital market and the rest followed by detection reagents, blood products and genetically engineered vaccines.
China's biopharmaceutical industry, while facing tremendous opportunities for development:State the importance of biotechnology as well as supportive macroeconomic policies. National has been put, including bio-pharmaceuticals, including biotechnology and focus on the development of new industry as one of the areas, while developing a series of preferential policies. China Biopharmaceuticals has entered into based on the completion of the human genome draft stage of development, people-genome era good expectations. The human genome sequence has been made public, with the precise sequence the human genome map completed mapping the human genome sequence will be fully entered the public gene databases, gene sequences will be no secret at all, China's biopharmaceutical industry is expected to start on a new and foreign pharmaceutical companies to compete. Many biotech drug patents about to expire, China's bio-pharmaceutical industry will have the opportunity to carry out selective imitation. The international biopharmaceutical industry shifting to China. With many large-scale bio-pharmaceutical company in China, China and the foreign large-scale pharmaceutical enterprises and research bodies will be greatly increased. Share in the technology and intellectual property under the premise of integration of resources. Meanwhile, China to medical and health system will give the bio-pharmaceutical industry with great opportunities for development, "the recent focus on medical and health system reform implementation plan (2009-2011). Under the" CPC Central Committee and State Council on Deepening the views of medical and health system reform "(in the Fa (2009) 6, hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"),2009-2011, focus on grasping the five reforms: First, accelerating the basic medical security system, and second, the initial establishment of national essential drugs system, three primary health care are sound service system 4 is to promote the gradual equalization of basic public health services, the five is to promote public hospital reform. ... ... " With China's economic development, national strength has been further enhanced. In the issue of people's livelihood has been attached great importance to the Chinese people see a doctor to solve difficult and expensive "problem. The Government will carry out further medical and health system reform, strengthen medical basic security system so that our people and really enjoy the fruits of economic development. In order to achieve the reform objectives, after a preliminary test 2009-2011 levels of government need to invest 850 billion yuan, of which the central government invested 331.8 billion yuan. With the medical and health system reform, China's grass-roots urban workers and farmers a friend's medical and health demand will be greatly stimulated, it will be a huge market for the development of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry will be a golden opportunity.
Making method of choice, the author of direct weighted average method, Wal-Mart scores and efficacy coefficient method, AHP method, fuzzy analysis method were compared, obtained their respective advantages and disadvantages. Finally, this paper adopts an integrated analysis of the factor analysis method, while this further factor analysis are introduced. Using this method involves the selection of factors in this paper according to the characteristics of bio-pharmaceutical industry, has selected eight representative factors:return on assets, net profit margin, fixed asset turnover, accounts receivable turnover, cash flow from operations on the debt ratio, liquidity ratio, main business revenue growth, net profit growth for listed companies on China's bio-pharmaceutical profitability, ability to resist risks, growth capacity, and management capabilities for analysis. The indicator of choice based on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, provided by the 2008 data collection and collation of data obtained in this paper required data. Then by the SPSS statistical software for statistical analysis. Statistics obtained four more significant common factor, according to common factor variance contribution to the overall size of the sub-item is calculated we need to factor scores for each listed company. According to statistics obtained by the market value of the company has clearly ignored the investors of listed companies are:(600796) Qianjiangshenghua, (002252) Shanghailaishi, (000078)Haiwangshengwu, (002038)Shuangluyaoye, (600798)Lukangyiyao, (000930)Fengyuanshenghua, (600866)Xinghukeji, (600195)Zhongmugufen. In accordance with the results of factor analysis of these shares in 2009, with investment value, investors can also be used as'a reference to obtain more than the market average return.
(002,007)Hualanshengwu, (600530)Jiaodaangli shares through the two factor scores and comparative analysis of price-earnings ratio, compared to December 31,2008 and other bio-pharmaceutical company is to give its value, which means that the same biological system, Pharmaceutical companies have not been overestimated nor underestimated.
This article first bio-pharmaceutical industry to conduct a more in-depth analysis, derived biopharmaceuticals in the 21st century there will be a huge development potential, can bring good returns for investors. However, due to this factor analysis method used in the company's existing management capacity, profitability, growth capacity, anti-risk ability of a relatively narrow analysis, so the conclusions drawn from the analysis of biological pharmaceuticals such as high-tech industries have significant limitations. Hope that investors on the basis of this article by adding time-series data for analysis and tracking trends for the bio-pharmaceutical, real-time data on the bio-pharmaceutical updated to make adjustments in order to facilitate a more objective and fair conclusion of the study in order to invest in On this basis, those who receive excess benefits.
本文以此为研究背景,对整个生物制药行业进行了充分的分析和论证。生物制药行业发展现状：(1)全球生物制药产业的发展极不平衡。一是各国生物制药产业发展水平极不平衡。二是生物技术药物产品发展极不平衡。在美国、欧盟等主要生物制药强国批准上市的500余种生物技术药物中,排名前10种产品的销售额便占整个生物制药市场的50%以上。在前50种产品中,动物细胞产品无论从数量还是从销售额来看都占65%—70%左右。三是生物医药产业化进程明显加快,市场规模迅速扩张。近20年来以基因工程、细胞工程、酶工程为代表的现代生物技术迅猛发展,人类基因组计划等重大技术相继取得突破,现代生物技术在医学治疗方面广泛应用,生物医药产业化进程明显加快。(2)生物医药发展呈现市场集中、产品集中的显著趋势,发达国家占据主导地位。一是少数发达国家在全球生物医药市场中处于产业主导地位。在世界药品市场中,美国、欧洲、日本三大药品市场的份额超过了80%。二是大的跨国公司主导了世界专利药市场。三是在产品市场领域,单品种销售的市场集中度也呈现小断增高趋势。(3)发达国家已形成若干生物医药产业密集区。(4)战略性技术同盟成为新药开发的成功模式。伴随着跨国制药企业在全球医药市场中的地位不断上升,其产业集中度和垄断程度也呈现出上升趋势。
我国生物制药产业的现状是：1989年,中国工程院院士侯云德研发的基因重组人干扰素α1b成为国内批准的第一个生物技术药物,这标志着中国生物制药产业正式拉开序幕。虽然经过20多年的发展,中国的生物制药产业并没有实现预期的增长势头从而也没有成为促进中国经济增长的支柱产业。而且,与全球生物制药产业以及中国生物科学技术基础研究的迅猛发展相比,中国生物产业的发展确实是非常滞后的,而且存在着重复生产严重、企业规模小、效率低等突出问题。生物技术制药企业整体的研发实力不足、创新能力较差,以及我国过去在药品生产、审查和知识产权保护等方面投入不足也是制约中国生物产业发展的突出问题。从我国生物制药产业投资现状看：生物制药产业对于创业投资的吸引力不强,从2001年开始,我国境内共有1080个企业获得创业投资资金49.857亿美元,但生物制药领域分别只占企业数量和资金总额的8.5%和5.2%,远远低于其他产业。在15年生物技术产业资本市场融资历史中,生物技术产业共计融资121.48亿元,这些资金主要投向了生物技术制药、生物技术研究、生物技术发酵工程、现代农业生物技术等领域。其中生物技术制药领域占了融资总量的40%,是获得投资额最多的生物技术产业领域。在生物制药领域,受惠资本市场最大的是基因工程多肤药物,约占50亿元生物制药资本市场的一半,其余依次是检测试剂、血液制品和基因工程疫苗。
我国生物制药行业同时面临巨大的发展机遇：国家对生物技术的重视以及宏观政策的扶持。国家已经把包括生物制药在内的生物技术和产业作为重点发展的新领域之一,同时制定了一系列的优惠政策。我国生物制药的发展已经进入基于人类基因组草图完成的发展阶段,人们对基因时代有良好的预期。人类基因序列已对外公开,随着人类基因组精确基因序列图谱绘制完成,人类基因序列将全部输入公共基因数据库,基因序列将无机密可言,我国生物制药业有望在一个新的起点上与国外制药企业展开竞争。许多生物技术药物专利即将到期,我国生物制药产业将有机会进行选择性的仿制。国际生物制药业向中国转移。随着许多大型生物制药公司进入中国,我国与国外大型制药企业和科研机构的合作将大大增加。可以在技术和知识产权共享的前提下,实现资源整合。同时我国进行医药卫生体制改革将会给生物医药行业以巨大的发展机遇“医药卫生体制改革近期重点实施方案(2009—2011年)。根据《中共中央国务院关于深化医药卫生体制改革的意见》(中发[2009]6号,以下简称《意见》),2009—2011年重点抓好五项改革：一是加快推进基本医疗保障制度建设,二是初步建立国家基本药物制度,三是健全基层医疗卫生服务体系,四是促进基本公共卫生服务逐步均等化,五是推进公立医院改革试点。……”①随着中国经济发展,国家实力进一步增强。在关注民生的问题上得到了高度重视,为解决中国老百姓看病难,看病贵”的问题。政府将进行进一步医药卫生体制改革,加强医疗基本保障制度,使我国老百姓切切实实享受到经济发展成果。为了实现改革的目标,经初步测2009—2011年各级政府需要投入8500亿元,其中中央政府投入3318亿元。随着医药卫生体制的改革,我国基层城镇职工和广大农民朋友的医疗卫生需求将得到极大刺激,这将是一个巨大的市场,对于我国生物制药行业的发展将是一个千载难逢的机遇。
在进行方法选择时,笔者对直接加权平均法、沃尔评分法、功效系数法、AHP法、模糊分析法等进行比较,得出他们各自的优劣点。最后本文采用了综合分析法中的因子分析法,同时本文进一步对因子分析方法进行介绍。采用本方法涉及到因子的选取,本文根据生物制药行业的特点选取了8个具有代表性的因子：资产收益率、净利润率、固定资产周转率、应收账款周转率、经营现金流量对负债比率、流动比率、主营业务收入增长率、净利润增长率来对我国生物制药上市公司的盈利能力、抗风险能力、成长能力、经营管理能力进行分析。在指标选择的基础上,根据上海证券交易所提供的08年数据进行数据的收集和整理,得出本文所需要的数据。然后由SPSS统计软件进行统计分析。统计得出了四个较为显著的公共因子,根据公共因子对整个方差贡献的大小分项进行计算得出我们需要的每个上市公司的因子得分。根据统计得出公司价值被市场投资者明显忽视的上市公司有：600796钱江生化、002252上海莱士、000078海王生物、002038双鹭药业、600798鲁抗医药、000930丰原生化、600866星湖科技、600195中牧股份。这些股票按照因子分析结果在2009年具有投资价值,投资者可以以此作为参考获得高于市场的平均收益。002007华兰生物、600530交大昂立这两只股票在通过因子得分和市盈率比较分析中,相对于2008年12月31日的其他生物制药公司是体现了其价值,也就是说在同类生物制药公司中没有被高估也没有被低估。
本文采用的因子分析方法是对公司现有经营管理能力,盈利能力,成长能力,抗风险能力的一个较为狭窄的分析,所以分析得出的结论对于生物制药这样的高科技行业具有很大的局限性。希望投资者在本文的基础上加入时间序列数据进行分析,同时对于生物制药动向进行跟踪,实时对生物制药的数据进行更新,做出调整,以便于有更客观公正的研究结论,以便投资者在此基础上获得超额收益。
Equity investment in its high rates of return and high liquidity popular around the world the favor of investors in the Chinese special economic circumstances came the stock market has also been sought after domestic investors, but in China's unique ownership structure and operating mechanism Under the domestic factors affecting the stock price is more complex. China's stock market has just gone through the past 20 springs and autumns, many investors because there is no suitable for the Chinese market, investment analysis tools, "Dan Chen shares the sea";, therefore, to find a suitable for the characteristics of China's stock market investment theory used to guide the investment behavior of investors seem are needed urgently.
In this paper, a wide range of literature to read at home and abroad, bio-pharmaceutical industry, a lot of research is only limited to the macro level of certainty, that is, the characteristics of the whole industry, position, status of China's biopharmaceutical development trend analysis, but also on China's bio-pharmaceutical industry and the world bio-pharmaceutical industry development of the prospect, pointing out that bio-pharmaceuticals in the 21st century will have great potential for development. But for bio-pharmaceutical industry's pricing analysis of the relevant literature is extremely rare, only a small number of studies from the previous literature on the basis of minor repairs. For the bio-pharmaceutical industry's pricing using discounted cash flow method, the modified discounted cash flow method as well as real options-based pricing method. Pricing methods for the study of bio-pharmaceutical industry is relatively small, the capital markets can provide reference for investors and their views on the proposed small。
This paper studies this as background, the whole bio-pharmaceutical industries a full analysis and demonstration. Development of bio-pharmaceutical industry:(1) Global bio-pharmaceutical industry development is extremely uneven. First, the development level of countries in bio-pharmaceutical industry is highly unbalanced; two biotechnology pharmaceutical product development is extremely uneven. In the United States, the European Union and other major bio-pharmaceutical powers of more than 500 kinds of licensed biotechnology drugs, among the top 10 products accounted for sales of the biopharmaceutical market, over 50%.
The first 50 products, animal cell product in terms of both quantity and terms of sales accounted for 65% a 70%. Biomedical industry clearly accelerated, the rapid expansion of market size; the past 20 years of genetic engineering, cell engineering, enzyme engineering, represented by the rapid development of modern biotechnology, human genome project have made significant technological breakthroughs of modern biotechnology in the medical treatment extensive application of bio-pharmaceutical industry to speed up the process significantly. (2) showing the development of bio-pharmaceutical market concentration, product concentration of a significant trend in the developed countries dominate. First, a few developed countries in the global biopharmaceutical market leading position in the industry. In the world pharmaceutical market, the United States, Europe, Japan's three major drug market share of more than 80%. Second, large multinational companies dominate the world patent medicine market. The third is in the product market segments, sales of single-species also show a small degree of market concentration is higher off the trend. (3) The developed countries have formed a number of bio-pharmaceutical industry-intensive areas. (4) strategic technology alliance to become a successful model for drug development. Along with multinational pharmaceutical companies in the global pharmaceutical market position in the rising and its level of industrial concentration and monopoly also shown a rising trend.
The status quo of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry is:In 1989, the Chinese Academy of Engineering Hou de R& D Recombinant human interferon alb become the first approved biotech drugs, which marks the Chinese bio-pharmaceutical industry in full swing. Even after 20 years of development, China's bio-pharmaceutical industry has not achieved the expected growth momentum and hence promote China's economic growth did not become a pillar industry. Moreover, with the global bio-pharmaceutical industry and China's basic research in biological science and technology, compared to the rapid development of China's biological industry development is indeed a very backward, and there is a serious duplication of production, firm size is small, low efficiency of the outstanding problems. Biotechnology, pharmaceutical R& D strength of the overall lack of ability to innovate less, as well as our past drug production, review and inadequate investment in intellectual property protection, etc. are also constrained the development of China's biological industry outstanding issues. Investment from China's current situation of bio-pharmaceutical industry:Bio-pharmaceutical industry for the attractiveness of venture capital is not strong, since 2001, China's enterprises in a total of 1080 venture investment funds 4.9857 billion U.S. dollars, but the bio-pharmaceutical sector were only the total number of enterprises and capital 8.5%and 5.2%, far less than other industries. The biotechnology industry in 15 years the history of capital market financing, financing of the biotechnology industry a total of 12.148 billion yuan, these funds are mainly invested in biotechnology, pharmaceutical, biotechnology research, biotechnology, fermentation engineering, modern agricultural biotechnology and other fields. In which the field of biotechnology, pharmaceuticals accounted for 40%of the total financing, is to obtain the largest amount of investment the field of biotechnology industry. In the bio-pharmaceutical field, will benefit the capital market is the biggest genetic engineering, peptide drugs, account for about 5 billion yuan biopharmaceutical half of the capital market and the rest followed by detection reagents, blood products and genetically engineered vaccines.
China's biopharmaceutical industry, while facing tremendous opportunities for development:State the importance of biotechnology as well as supportive macroeconomic policies. National has been put, including bio-pharmaceuticals, including biotechnology and focus on the development of new industry as one of the areas, while developing a series of preferential policies. China Biopharmaceuticals has entered into based on the completion of the human genome draft stage of development, people-genome era good expectations. The human genome sequence has been made public, with the precise sequence the human genome map completed mapping the human genome sequence will be fully entered the public gene databases, gene sequences will be no secret at all, China's biopharmaceutical industry is expected to start on a new and foreign pharmaceutical companies to compete. Many biotech drug patents about to expire, China's bio-pharmaceutical industry will have the opportunity to carry out selective imitation. The international biopharmaceutical industry shifting to China. With many large-scale bio-pharmaceutical company in China, China and the foreign large-scale pharmaceutical enterprises and research bodies will be greatly increased. Share in the technology and intellectual property under the premise of integration of resources. Meanwhile, China to medical and health system will give the bio-pharmaceutical industry with great opportunities for development, "the recent focus on medical and health system reform implementation plan (2009-2011). Under the" CPC Central Committee and State Council on Deepening the views of medical and health system reform "(in the Fa (2009) 6, hereinafter referred to as "Opinions"),2009-2011, focus on grasping the five reforms: First, accelerating the basic medical security system, and second, the initial establishment of national essential drugs system, three primary health care are sound service system 4 is to promote the gradual equalization of basic public health services, the five is to promote public hospital reform. ... ... " With China's economic development, national strength has been further enhanced. In the issue of people's livelihood has been attached great importance to the Chinese people see a doctor to solve difficult and expensive "problem. The Government will carry out further medical and health system reform, strengthen medical basic security system so that our people and really enjoy the fruits of economic development. In order to achieve the reform objectives, after a preliminary test 2009-2011 levels of government need to invest 850 billion yuan, of which the central government invested 331.8 billion yuan. With the medical and health system reform, China's grass-roots urban workers and farmers a friend's medical and health demand will be greatly stimulated, it will be a huge market for the development of China's bio-pharmaceutical industry will be a golden opportunity.
Making method of choice, the author of direct weighted average method, Wal-Mart scores and efficacy coefficient method, AHP method, fuzzy analysis method were compared, obtained their respective advantages and disadvantages. Finally, this paper adopts an integrated analysis of the factor analysis method, while this further factor analysis are introduced. Using this method involves the selection of factors in this paper according to the characteristics of bio-pharmaceutical industry, has selected eight representative factors:return on assets, net profit margin, fixed asset turnover, accounts receivable turnover, cash flow from operations on the debt ratio, liquidity ratio, main business revenue growth, net profit growth for listed companies on China's bio-pharmaceutical profitability, ability to resist risks, growth capacity, and management capabilities for analysis. The indicator of choice based on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, provided by the 2008 data collection and collation of data obtained in this paper required data. Then by the SPSS statistical software for statistical analysis. Statistics obtained four more significant common factor, according to common factor variance contribution to the overall size of the sub-item is calculated we need to factor scores for each listed company. According to statistics obtained by the market value of the company has clearly ignored the investors of listed companies are:(600796) Qianjiangshenghua, (002252) Shanghailaishi, (000078)Haiwangshengwu, (002038)Shuangluyaoye, (600798)Lukangyiyao, (000930)Fengyuanshenghua, (600866)Xinghukeji, (600195)Zhongmugufen. In accordance with the results of factor analysis of these shares in 2009, with investment value, investors can also be used as'a reference to obtain more than the market average return.
(002,007)Hualanshengwu, (600530)Jiaodaangli shares through the two factor scores and comparative analysis of price-earnings ratio, compared to December 31,2008 and other bio-pharmaceutical company is to give its value, which means that the same biological system, Pharmaceutical companies have not been overestimated nor underestimated.
This article first bio-pharmaceutical industry to conduct a more in-depth analysis, derived biopharmaceuticals in the 21st century there will be a huge development potential, can bring good returns for investors. However, due to this factor analysis method used in the company's existing management capacity, profitability, growth capacity, anti-risk ability of a relatively narrow analysis, so the conclusions drawn from the analysis of biological pharmaceuticals such as high-tech industries have significant limitations. Hope that investors on the basis of this article by adding time-series data for analysis and tracking trends for the bio-pharmaceutical, real-time data on the bio-pharmaceutical updated to make adjustments in order to facilitate a more objective and fair conclusion of the study in order to invest in On this basis, those who receive excess benefits.
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①马勇杜德斌周天瑜2008年全球生物制药研发特点与应对思考.产业前沿第54-57
②胡显文,陈惠鹏,张树庸2009年全球生物制药产业概况.中国医药生物技术第85-89页
①彭俊文蒋铭敏2004年生物技术药物的研究开发与产业化现状及前景.生物技术通讯第201-203页
②2006年生物技术在制药领域中的应用及生物医药现状分析.安徽科技交流与探讨第44-46页
①李充璧,王利平2008年生物技术制药现状与发展趋势.肇庆学院学报62-64页
②胡显文陈惠鹏汤仲明马清钧物制药的现状和未来(二)：发展趋势与希望.中国生物工程杂志第85-93页
③谢玉萍,林君晓2009年基于实物期权法的某生物制药企业R&D项目评估案例.科学管理研究.第310-313页
①方峻2005年生物制药企业价值评估方法研究.企业经济第168-169页
②田文奇 邱家学 2009年 生物制药项目价值评估方法研究.西北药学杂志第144-145页
③郭丽萍2005年斯顿衍生模型在高新技术企业价值评估中的应用研究.湖南大学硕士论文
④胡美忠2008年我国生物制药产业现状及发展分析.铜仁职业技术学院学报(自然科学)第7-6页
①桂子凡王义强2006年我国生物医药产业发展的现状、问题及对策研究Special Zone Economy特区经济第267-268页
②孙利华左根永2004年我国生物制药企业持续技术创新的现状与对策.中国药房第460-462页
③邬时民2008年我国生物制药市场的前景上海医药第353-355页
①马勇、杜德斌、周天瑜、盛垒《全球生物药业的研发特点与我国制药研发的应对思考》中国科技论坛第11期.2008年11月第48页
①宋云飞《房地产上市公司投资价值的实证研究》对外经济贸易大学硕士论文2006年4月第27页
2、卢起涂文坚2008年生物制药的现状与发展.中外健康文摘.药学研究第186-187页；
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4、肖翔 2003年 高新企业价值评估方法研究.数量经济技术经济研究2003年第2期第5-7页；
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8、袁永宁 夏恩君 2009年基于MonteCarlo模拟的生物制药项目实物期权价值评估.财会月刊第51-52页；
9、李永强 2004年 基于实物期权理论的高科技企业IPO定价方法研究.华中科技大学硕士论文
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12、王建中李海英企业价值评估的DCF模型实证研究.中国资产评估第9-12页；
13、吕文明2007年浅析生物技术药物的现状及应用.常州工程职业技术学院学报第46-47页；
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19桂子凡王义强2006年我国生物医药产业发展的现状、问题及对策研究.对策与研究Special Zone Economy第267-269页；
20、王申2008年我国生物制药产业的发展分析.企业研究第69-71页；
21、王亚平2003年我国生物医药产业现状与出路.中国创业投资与高科技第15-16页；
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24、孙利华左根永2004年我国生物制药企业持续技术创新的现状与对策.中国药房第15卷第8期460-462页；
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①北京世经未来投资咨询有限公司 《2008年医药行业风险分析报告》 国家发展改革委中国经济导报社第69页
①北京世经未来投资咨询有限公司 《2008年医药行业风险分析报告》 国家发展改革委中国经济导报社第69页
①刘丽辉杨伊侬2005年发展我国生物制药业问题及对策.工业技术经济第24卷第3期第41-43页
②白士新2008论生物制药的发展及在医药领域的应用.探索争鸣 第39页
③卢起涂文坚2008年生物制药的现状与发展.中外健康文摘.药学研究第5卷第6期第186-187页
①马勇杜德斌周天瑜2008年全球生物制药研发特点与应对思考.产业前沿第54-57
②胡显文,陈惠鹏,张树庸2009年全球生物制药产业概况.中国医药生物技术第85-89页
①彭俊文蒋铭敏2004年生物技术药物的研究开发与产业化现状及前景.生物技术通讯第201-203页
②2006年生物技术在制药领域中的应用及生物医药现状分析.安徽科技交流与探讨第44-46页
①李充璧,王利平2008年生物技术制药现状与发展趋势.肇庆学院学报62-64页
②胡显文陈惠鹏汤仲明马清钧物制药的现状和未来(二)：发展趋势与希望.中国生物工程杂志第85-93页
③谢玉萍,林君晓2009年基于实物期权法的某生物制药企业R&D项目评估案例.科学管理研究.第310-313页
①方峻2005年生物制药企业价值评估方法研究.企业经济第168-169页
②田文奇 邱家学 2009年 生物制药项目价值评估方法研究.西北药学杂志第144-145页
③郭丽萍2005年斯顿衍生模型在高新技术企业价值评估中的应用研究.湖南大学硕士论文
④胡美忠2008年我国生物制药产业现状及发展分析.铜仁职业技术学院学报(自然科学)第7-6页
①桂子凡王义强2006年我国生物医药产业发展的现状、问题及对策研究Special Zone Economy特区经济第267-268页
②孙利华左根永2004年我国生物制药企业持续技术创新的现状与对策.中国药房第460-462页
③邬时民2008年我国生物制药市场的前景上海医药第353-355页
①马勇、杜德斌、周天瑜、盛垒《全球生物药业的研发特点与我国制药研发的应对思考》中国科技论坛第11期.2008年11月第48页
①宋云飞《房地产上市公司投资价值的实证研究》对外经济贸易大学硕士论文2006年4月第27页