太阳能发电项目投资问题研究
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摘要
在全球气候变化,能源短缺的形势下,能源安全和环境保护已成为全球能源问题的主题,是社会经济可持续发展战略的核心任务。太阳能发电作为一种清洁的可再生能源,在当今社会受到了越来越多的关注。目前,我国太阳能发电产业还处于发展初期,太阳能发电成本高,发电项目尚不能产生满足投资者期望的经济效益,由于资金、技术、政策、市场等多方面的原因,我国太阳能发电的相关技术研发创新及其应用与世界先进水平相比仍有很大差距,发展的最大障碍就是缺乏投资,资金短缺问题是太阳能发电产业进一步发展的“瓶颈”之一。太阳能发电产业属于高技术产业,投资对于其发展具有重要意义,由于投资大型太阳能发电并网项目存在很多不确定性,所需资金大,投资风险性高,怎样吸引投资者积极投资太阳能发电项目以及相关技术的研发创新,是促进太阳能发电相关技术研发应用和太阳能发电产业发展的关键。但是,目前应用经济学理论系统深入研究探讨太阳能发电项目投资问题的文献尚不多见,构建数学模型分析、通过问卷量表调研、进行实证研究的更少。因此,分析研究我国太阳能发电项目投资问题,提出适合我国特点的太阳能发电项目投资激励机制模式及相关对策建议,对促进我国太阳能发电项目的投资和产业化发展,拓展国内太阳能发电应用市场,有着积极而又十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。
为探究解决我国太阳能发电项目投资问题的方法和途径,本文在研究投资者行为特点和影响投资者投资决策的主要因素基础上,总结回顾并吸收国内外学者相关研究成果,应用经济学相关理论结合博弈数学模型分析,并通过问卷量表调查,进行统计分析、实证研究,总结国外的相关经验,提出建议。论文研究主要在以下方面得出结论：
1.分析总结我国太阳能发电产业及项目投资现状、存在问题及其深层原因,得出问题的深层原因是政府相关政策不完善。
2.根据太阳能发电产业、太阳能发电项目及其投资的特点,构建博弈数学模型,结合相关经济学理论,从博弈论角度研究太阳能发电项目投资者投资决策中的行为特点,分析影响投资者投资太阳能发电项目积极性的主要因素,得出：在当前的太阳能发电成本和相关技术条件下,政策是影响投资者投资太阳能发电项目积极性的主要因素；民企参与太阳能发电项目投资意义重要：政府发出改善投资环境、引导社会资金投资的政策信号,将会提高投资者投资积极性；改善投资环境、提高项目投资回报的政策是目前影响太阳能发电项目投资的最重要因素。
3.应用波特模型等理论,研究政策激励太阳能发电项目投资的内在机理、促进太阳能发电项目投资和产业成长的动力机制、项目投资的动力因素和激励特点,得出：政策激励对吸引太阳能发电项目投资起着至关重要作用,政策需要从改善投资环境,培育拓展国内太阳能发电应用市场,加强相关技术研发,提升技术水平着手。
4、构建政策对有限理性投资者投资行为影响的进化博弈数学模型,研究得出：直接影响投资成本的并网电价、补贴、税收优惠、贷款利率的优惠政策会有利于吸引投资者投资太阳能发电项目。
5.通过问卷量表调研、统计分析(进行可靠性分析、因子分析和二元选择逻辑回归模型分析)实证了博弈模型分析所得结论(即影响投资者投资的主要因素),实证了进化博弈模型分析得出的直接影响投资成本的四个方面的政策(并网电价、补贴、税收优惠、贷款利率)对太阳能发电项目投资者投资决策的影响及影响程度。
6.研究国内外激励太阳能发电投资的政策特点及其实际效果,进一步实证了：博弈模型得出的直接影响投资成本的补贴、税收优惠、并网电价、金融扶持等相关激励政策对投资者投资决策的影响；提出：目前我国太阳能发电项目投资需要政府的扶持、引导和推动。
7.根据理论及博弈数学模型分析和实证研究,根据国内外实践,提出促进我国太阳能发电项目投资的激励机制模式及建议。
Energy security and the environment protection have become the theme of the global energy problem. They are the core of strategy task of social and economic sustainable development. Solar power as a kind of clean and renewable energy has received more and more attention. At present, China's solar power industry is still in the initial development period. Solar power cost is high. Due to various reasons of capital, technology, policy, market and so on, the relevant technology research&innovation and the application of our country are still with the very big disparity compared with the world's advanced level. The biggest obstacle of the development is lack of investment. The shortage of capital problem is one of the "bottlenecks" of our solar power industry for the further development. Solar power industry belongs to the high technology industry. Investment is with important significance for its development. There are a lot of uncertainties to invest large solar power grid projects. The funds required for the investment is high. How to attract investors to invest solar power projects and related technology research&innovation are the key to promote the development of solar power industry. But there is not much of applying economics theories to systematacially deeply analyze and study the problems of solar power projects'investment. There is seldom to construct mathematical models to analyse and do empirical study by use of statistic analysis from the results of questionnaire suvery. Thus, analyse the problems of investment of solar power projects in China, put forward the innovation model of the investment incentive mechanism of the solar power projects in China and the related countermeasures that are suitable for China's characteristics are with positive and very important theoretical and realistic significances.
In order to study investors behavior characteristics and the main factors influencing investors investment decisions, explore methods and approaches to solve the solar power project investment, this dissertation summarized, reviewed and absorbed related research achievements of scholars both at home and abroad; applied economics correlation theories combined with game mathematical model analysis, and empirical research through the questionnaire survey&statistical analysis, summarized foreign relevant experience, put forward some suggestions. The following aspects have been mainly researched and concluded:
1. Analyzed current situation and existing problems of the solar power projects' investment and their underlying causes in China.
2. Applied economics theories to study the characteristics of solar power projects and their investment, analyzed the main factors that effect on investors to invest solar power projects in China and especially the reasons that private enterprises do not plan to invest solar power projects actively; Based on the behavior characteristics of (potential) solar power projects' investors, demonstrated the related signals that have something to do with influncing investment and financing issued by the government (namely the related policies) will influence investors' decisions on whether invest solar power projects or not. The policies to improve the investment environment are the most important factors affect current projects' investment. Theoretically analyzed the significances of private enterprises to participate in the solar power project investment and puts forward the related suggestions on how to guide the social capital to invest solar power projects.
3. Studied the inner mechanism of policies to stimulate solar power projects' investment by the use of Porter Model. On the bases of analysing dynamic factors&incentive characteristics of solar power projects' investment, further concluded that government incentive policies play the most important role on current solar power projects' investment. Put forward that policies need to improve the investment environment, foster&develop the market, strengthen technical research, enhance the technical level.
4. By the use of analysis of the evolutionary game model, concluded that preferential policies of Feed-in Tariff, subsidies, taxation, and loan interest rate which directly influence the investment cost will help attract investors to invest in solar power projects.
5. Through the questionnaire research and statistical analysis, concluded the main factors affect investors to invest, demonstrated the study results of economics theories and game modles.
6. Studied characteristics of domestic and foreign incentive polices of solar power investment and their actual effect, and further demonstrated that currently solar power project investment in our country need the government's support, guide and promote.
7. According to analyses of economic theories&game math models, empirical research, and the domestic&international practices, put forward the related suggestions.
为探究解决我国太阳能发电项目投资问题的方法和途径,本文在研究投资者行为特点和影响投资者投资决策的主要因素基础上,总结回顾并吸收国内外学者相关研究成果,应用经济学相关理论结合博弈数学模型分析,并通过问卷量表调查,进行统计分析、实证研究,总结国外的相关经验,提出建议。论文研究主要在以下方面得出结论：
1.分析总结我国太阳能发电产业及项目投资现状、存在问题及其深层原因,得出问题的深层原因是政府相关政策不完善。
2.根据太阳能发电产业、太阳能发电项目及其投资的特点,构建博弈数学模型,结合相关经济学理论,从博弈论角度研究太阳能发电项目投资者投资决策中的行为特点,分析影响投资者投资太阳能发电项目积极性的主要因素,得出：在当前的太阳能发电成本和相关技术条件下,政策是影响投资者投资太阳能发电项目积极性的主要因素；民企参与太阳能发电项目投资意义重要：政府发出改善投资环境、引导社会资金投资的政策信号,将会提高投资者投资积极性；改善投资环境、提高项目投资回报的政策是目前影响太阳能发电项目投资的最重要因素。
3.应用波特模型等理论,研究政策激励太阳能发电项目投资的内在机理、促进太阳能发电项目投资和产业成长的动力机制、项目投资的动力因素和激励特点,得出：政策激励对吸引太阳能发电项目投资起着至关重要作用,政策需要从改善投资环境,培育拓展国内太阳能发电应用市场,加强相关技术研发,提升技术水平着手。
4、构建政策对有限理性投资者投资行为影响的进化博弈数学模型,研究得出：直接影响投资成本的并网电价、补贴、税收优惠、贷款利率的优惠政策会有利于吸引投资者投资太阳能发电项目。
5.通过问卷量表调研、统计分析(进行可靠性分析、因子分析和二元选择逻辑回归模型分析)实证了博弈模型分析所得结论(即影响投资者投资的主要因素),实证了进化博弈模型分析得出的直接影响投资成本的四个方面的政策(并网电价、补贴、税收优惠、贷款利率)对太阳能发电项目投资者投资决策的影响及影响程度。
6.研究国内外激励太阳能发电投资的政策特点及其实际效果,进一步实证了：博弈模型得出的直接影响投资成本的补贴、税收优惠、并网电价、金融扶持等相关激励政策对投资者投资决策的影响；提出：目前我国太阳能发电项目投资需要政府的扶持、引导和推动。
7.根据理论及博弈数学模型分析和实证研究,根据国内外实践,提出促进我国太阳能发电项目投资的激励机制模式及建议。
Energy security and the environment protection have become the theme of the global energy problem. They are the core of strategy task of social and economic sustainable development. Solar power as a kind of clean and renewable energy has received more and more attention. At present, China's solar power industry is still in the initial development period. Solar power cost is high. Due to various reasons of capital, technology, policy, market and so on, the relevant technology research&innovation and the application of our country are still with the very big disparity compared with the world's advanced level. The biggest obstacle of the development is lack of investment. The shortage of capital problem is one of the "bottlenecks" of our solar power industry for the further development. Solar power industry belongs to the high technology industry. Investment is with important significance for its development. There are a lot of uncertainties to invest large solar power grid projects. The funds required for the investment is high. How to attract investors to invest solar power projects and related technology research&innovation are the key to promote the development of solar power industry. But there is not much of applying economics theories to systematacially deeply analyze and study the problems of solar power projects'investment. There is seldom to construct mathematical models to analyse and do empirical study by use of statistic analysis from the results of questionnaire suvery. Thus, analyse the problems of investment of solar power projects in China, put forward the innovation model of the investment incentive mechanism of the solar power projects in China and the related countermeasures that are suitable for China's characteristics are with positive and very important theoretical and realistic significances.
In order to study investors behavior characteristics and the main factors influencing investors investment decisions, explore methods and approaches to solve the solar power project investment, this dissertation summarized, reviewed and absorbed related research achievements of scholars both at home and abroad; applied economics correlation theories combined with game mathematical model analysis, and empirical research through the questionnaire survey&statistical analysis, summarized foreign relevant experience, put forward some suggestions. The following aspects have been mainly researched and concluded:
1. Analyzed current situation and existing problems of the solar power projects' investment and their underlying causes in China.
2. Applied economics theories to study the characteristics of solar power projects and their investment, analyzed the main factors that effect on investors to invest solar power projects in China and especially the reasons that private enterprises do not plan to invest solar power projects actively; Based on the behavior characteristics of (potential) solar power projects' investors, demonstrated the related signals that have something to do with influncing investment and financing issued by the government (namely the related policies) will influence investors' decisions on whether invest solar power projects or not. The policies to improve the investment environment are the most important factors affect current projects' investment. Theoretically analyzed the significances of private enterprises to participate in the solar power project investment and puts forward the related suggestions on how to guide the social capital to invest solar power projects.
3. Studied the inner mechanism of policies to stimulate solar power projects' investment by the use of Porter Model. On the bases of analysing dynamic factors&incentive characteristics of solar power projects' investment, further concluded that government incentive policies play the most important role on current solar power projects' investment. Put forward that policies need to improve the investment environment, foster&develop the market, strengthen technical research, enhance the technical level.
4. By the use of analysis of the evolutionary game model, concluded that preferential policies of Feed-in Tariff, subsidies, taxation, and loan interest rate which directly influence the investment cost will help attract investors to invest in solar power projects.
5. Through the questionnaire research and statistical analysis, concluded the main factors affect investors to invest, demonstrated the study results of economics theories and game modles.
6. Studied characteristics of domestic and foreign incentive polices of solar power investment and their actual effect, and further demonstrated that currently solar power project investment in our country need the government's support, guide and promote.
7. According to analyses of economic theories&game math models, empirical research, and the domestic&international practices, put forward the related suggestions.
引文
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