产业结构优化对河南省“十二五”节能目标的影响研究
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摘要
“十一五”以来,河南省经济取得了快速的发展,但是产业结构表现为工业比重过高,第三产业发展严重滞后,由于工业占据能源消耗的比重近80%,因此随着工业比重的不断增加,河南省能源消费总量的增长也较为迅速。2011年时河南省的能源消费量比2005年增长57.7%；同时河南省的单位GDP能耗近几年来一直高于全国平均水平的10%左右,与先进省市存在较大差距。而“十二五”期间,河南省仍将完成单位GDP能耗下降16%的节能目标及将能源消费总量控制在28500万吨标煤的要求。由于各产业对能源的需求量不同,产业结构变动直接影响着能源的消费量变化。如何使产业结构调整能够有利于河南省经济质量的提高以及节能减排目标的实现是一个亟需研究的问题。
本文首先将河南省总体产业划分为农业、工业、建筑业、第三产业。因工业能耗占据河南省全社会的较大比重,又将工业细分为钢铁、建材、有色金属、化工、煤炭、电力等六大高耗能行业和电子、食品、纺织、轻工及其他四大高附加值行业等行业。以“十二五”期间经济发展和产业规划为依据,采用自下而上的部门分解法对河南省各部门各行业能源消费和能源强度进行预测分析,得到产业结构优化前的各部门各行业在规划情景下的经济-能耗预测值。然后选择约束条件,构建动态灰色线性规划(Grey Linear Programming, GLP)模型,对河南省三大产业结构和工业内部结构分别进行优化研究,并利用结构优化的结果对规划情景下的“十二五”期间工业主要产品的产量需求进行调整。最后采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(Logarithmic mean divisia index, LMDI)对能耗和能源强度进行因素分解,以分析结构效应对能耗的影响及对节能目标的贡献。
研究表明,经模型优化后的产业结构能保证河南省“十二五”经济的合理增长及节能目标的完成；河南省总能耗因素分解结果表明,“十二五”期间,产业结构优化后,在能耗增量为5820万吨标煤中,其中由产出效应带来的能耗增长最大,达到10266万吨标煤,结构效应对能耗产生的抑制作用达到1680万吨标煤,效率效应带来的能耗抑制作用达到2766万吨标煤,与结构优化前相比,结构效应带来的能耗抑制作用更明显,效率效应变化不大。说明经模型优化后的产业结构,更利于降低能源消费；能源强度因素分解结果表明,“十二五”期间,产业结构优化后,在节能目标下降率为18.6%中,其中由结构效应对节能目标下降率的贡献达到7.0%,效率效应对节能目标下降率的贡献达到11.6%。
The economy has achieved a rapid development in Henan province since "11th Five-Year", but the industrial structure shows that the proportion of industry is too high, while the development of tertiary industry is seriously lagging behind, Due to the industry accounted for nearly80%of the proportion of the total energy consumption, with the continuous increase in the proportion of industry, so the growth of energy consumption in Henan province is also quickly. Energy consumption in Henan Province in2011increased by57.7%compared with2005, at the same time, energy intensity has been higher about10%than the national average level in recent years and there is a big gap between advanced provinces and cities. During the "12th Five-Year" period, it will continue to complete energy-saving target for Henan Province that energy intensity will decrease by16%and the total energy consumption will be controled within285million tce. Because energy demand for each industry is different, so a change in the industrial structure will directly affects energy consumption. How to make the industrial structure adjustment beneficial to the improvement of the economic quality of Henan province and to the achievement of the energy conservation and emissions reduction goal is an urgent problem.
Firstly, the overall industry of Henan Province was divided into agriculture, industry, construction industry and tertiary industry. Due to the energy consumption of industry accounted for a large proportion of the whole society in Henan Province, so the industry was subdivided into six high energy-consuming industries including iron and steel, building materials, nonferrous metals, chemicals, coal, electricity and four high value-added industries including electronics, food, textile, light industry and other industries. According to the "12th Five-Year" economic development and industry planning in Henan province, bottom-up sector decomposition method was firstly used to predict energy consumption and energy intensity of various sectors and the added value and energy consumption of each industry could be got in planning scenarios before the industrial structure optimization. Then the constraint conditions were chosen to build dynamic gray linear programming model for the optimization of industrial structure and internal structure of industry. At the same time, the major products needs in planning scenarios were adjusted by the results of the structural optimization. Finally LMDI method was used to decompose energy consumption and energy intensity to analyze the structural effects on energy consumption and contribution to the energy-saving goals.
Studies have shown that the industrial structure by optimized could ensure a reasonable economic growth and achievement of energy-saving goasl in Henan Province; the decomposition result of total energy consumption factors shows that energy consumption in increments will reach58.2million tons of standard coal after industrial structure optimization in the "12th Five-Year" period, which is brought about by the effect on output reached102.66million tons of standard coal, the inhibition produced by structural effects on energy consumption reached16.8million tons of standard coal, energy consumption efficiency effect inhibition reached27.66million tons of standard coal. Compared with before optimization of the industrial structure, industrial effect shows a more obvious inhibition on energy consumption, but efficiency effect has a little change. So the industrial structure by optimized shows a more conducive to reduce energy consumption; the result of energy intensity factor decomposition shows that in the energy-saving target of18.6%in the "12th Five-Year" period after industrial structure optimization, which by structural effect on the contribution to energy-saving goal reached7.0%and by efficiency effect reached11.6%.
本文首先将河南省总体产业划分为农业、工业、建筑业、第三产业。因工业能耗占据河南省全社会的较大比重,又将工业细分为钢铁、建材、有色金属、化工、煤炭、电力等六大高耗能行业和电子、食品、纺织、轻工及其他四大高附加值行业等行业。以“十二五”期间经济发展和产业规划为依据,采用自下而上的部门分解法对河南省各部门各行业能源消费和能源强度进行预测分析,得到产业结构优化前的各部门各行业在规划情景下的经济-能耗预测值。然后选择约束条件,构建动态灰色线性规划(Grey Linear Programming, GLP)模型,对河南省三大产业结构和工业内部结构分别进行优化研究,并利用结构优化的结果对规划情景下的“十二五”期间工业主要产品的产量需求进行调整。最后采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(Logarithmic mean divisia index, LMDI)对能耗和能源强度进行因素分解,以分析结构效应对能耗的影响及对节能目标的贡献。
研究表明,经模型优化后的产业结构能保证河南省“十二五”经济的合理增长及节能目标的完成；河南省总能耗因素分解结果表明,“十二五”期间,产业结构优化后,在能耗增量为5820万吨标煤中,其中由产出效应带来的能耗增长最大,达到10266万吨标煤,结构效应对能耗产生的抑制作用达到1680万吨标煤,效率效应带来的能耗抑制作用达到2766万吨标煤,与结构优化前相比,结构效应带来的能耗抑制作用更明显,效率效应变化不大。说明经模型优化后的产业结构,更利于降低能源消费；能源强度因素分解结果表明,“十二五”期间,产业结构优化后,在节能目标下降率为18.6%中,其中由结构效应对节能目标下降率的贡献达到7.0%,效率效应对节能目标下降率的贡献达到11.6%。
The economy has achieved a rapid development in Henan province since "11th Five-Year", but the industrial structure shows that the proportion of industry is too high, while the development of tertiary industry is seriously lagging behind, Due to the industry accounted for nearly80%of the proportion of the total energy consumption, with the continuous increase in the proportion of industry, so the growth of energy consumption in Henan province is also quickly. Energy consumption in Henan Province in2011increased by57.7%compared with2005, at the same time, energy intensity has been higher about10%than the national average level in recent years and there is a big gap between advanced provinces and cities. During the "12th Five-Year" period, it will continue to complete energy-saving target for Henan Province that energy intensity will decrease by16%and the total energy consumption will be controled within285million tce. Because energy demand for each industry is different, so a change in the industrial structure will directly affects energy consumption. How to make the industrial structure adjustment beneficial to the improvement of the economic quality of Henan province and to the achievement of the energy conservation and emissions reduction goal is an urgent problem.
Firstly, the overall industry of Henan Province was divided into agriculture, industry, construction industry and tertiary industry. Due to the energy consumption of industry accounted for a large proportion of the whole society in Henan Province, so the industry was subdivided into six high energy-consuming industries including iron and steel, building materials, nonferrous metals, chemicals, coal, electricity and four high value-added industries including electronics, food, textile, light industry and other industries. According to the "12th Five-Year" economic development and industry planning in Henan province, bottom-up sector decomposition method was firstly used to predict energy consumption and energy intensity of various sectors and the added value and energy consumption of each industry could be got in planning scenarios before the industrial structure optimization. Then the constraint conditions were chosen to build dynamic gray linear programming model for the optimization of industrial structure and internal structure of industry. At the same time, the major products needs in planning scenarios were adjusted by the results of the structural optimization. Finally LMDI method was used to decompose energy consumption and energy intensity to analyze the structural effects on energy consumption and contribution to the energy-saving goals.
Studies have shown that the industrial structure by optimized could ensure a reasonable economic growth and achievement of energy-saving goasl in Henan Province; the decomposition result of total energy consumption factors shows that energy consumption in increments will reach58.2million tons of standard coal after industrial structure optimization in the "12th Five-Year" period, which is brought about by the effect on output reached102.66million tons of standard coal, the inhibition produced by structural effects on energy consumption reached16.8million tons of standard coal, energy consumption efficiency effect inhibition reached27.66million tons of standard coal. Compared with before optimization of the industrial structure, industrial effect shows a more obvious inhibition on energy consumption, but efficiency effect has a little change. So the industrial structure by optimized shows a more conducive to reduce energy consumption; the result of energy intensity factor decomposition shows that in the energy-saving target of18.6%in the "12th Five-Year" period after industrial structure optimization, which by structural effect on the contribution to energy-saving goal reached7.0%and by efficiency effect reached11.6%.
引文
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