基于复杂系统的钢铁供应链脆性管理研究
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摘要
美国金融危机逐渐演变成全球性的经济危机,使得中国钢铁工业陷入困境,伴随着全球经济实现回转,中国钢铁业的产业化道路重新摆在了中国钢铁企业面前。
钢铁行业受国际经济危机的影响,市场受到重创。为了适应市场发展,保持钢铁企业的市场竞争力,而对钢铁行业供应链脆性进行研究就成为解决当前问题的一种途径。通过对钢铁企业供应链脆性进行研究,总结发现供应链中存在的薄弱环节,在实际经营活动中,做到有效预防,避免造成重大损失。
本文以钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性为研究对象,对脆性的概念及特征进行了描述,借鉴复杂系统脆性理论、供应链复杂性、供应链脆弱性理论以及风险传导理论,得到了钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性理论;构建了供应链脆性风险的脆性因子体系,并对钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性的产生进行机理研究,提出假设体系,建立了钢铁供应链复杂系统的脆性模型。最后本文得出了以下研究成果与研究结论:
(1)脆性是钢铁供应链复杂系统的一个固有特性,脆性的存在有供应链所处的外部环境以及其内部构成没有关系。但是,钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性能否被激发,与其外部环境和内部构成有必然关系。当钢铁供应链复杂系统的脆性因子被激发时,进而影响其脆性事件发生,最终导致整个钢铁供应链复杂系统发生崩溃。
(2)研究确定了钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性理论,并构建了供应链脆性因子体系。并以110家钢铁企业作为实证样本进行主成分分析,得到12个脆性因子主成分,并将这些主成分因子归纳为6个主要脆性事件及其相对应的主脆性因子:成本压力增加、外部环境动荡、市场竞争力不足、盈利能力不足、资金运营能力不足、发展潜力不足。并求出了钢铁供应链的脆性度计算方法。
(3)对钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性的产生进行了机理研究,提出假设体系,并建立了初始概念模型,通过对模型进行拟合检验、评价、修正,最终得到了钢铁供应链复杂系统的脆性结构模型。
(4)建立了钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性风险预测模型,并以110家样本企业的数据进行研究,得到了钢铁企业各主成分值以及脆性度危险性的划分标准。为确定钢铁企业脆性提供了理论依据,对有效地预防钢铁企业脆性爆发甚至企业发生崩溃提供帮助。
The U.S. financial crisis gradually spread worldwide and led Chinese iron and steel enterprises into great trouble. Most of these enterprises have adopted a series of adjustment measures. With the upturn of the global economy, the task for industrialization is once again ahead of Chinese iron and steel companies.
The market of the iron and steel industry was hit hard by the global economic crisis. To adapt to the development of the market and maintain the competitiveness of iron and steel enterprises, one feasible way is to conduct research on the supply chain brittleness of the industry and iron industry. Through such research, we can find weak links in the supply chain and make effective prevention in actual management so as to avoid heavy losses.
This thesis researches into complex system brittleness of the iron and steel supply chain. It describes the concept and features of brittleness and develops complex system brittleness theory of the iron and steel supply chain based on the complex system theory, complexity of supply chain, brittleness theory of supple chains as well as risk conduction theory. Further, it establishes the brittleness factor system of the supply chain and conducts mechanism research on the origin of complex system brittleness of the iron and steel industry supply chain and through theoretical assumption, it constructs brittleness modal of the iron and steel supply chains. This thesis obtains the following findings and conclusions:
(1) Brittleness is an inherent feature of the complex system of the iron and steel supply chain. The existence of brittleness has no relation to the external environment and internal structure of the supply chain. However, the external environment and internal structure of the supply chain are no doubt related to motivation of the complex system brittleness of the iron and steel supply chain. When the complex system brittleness factors of the iron and steel industry are motivated, brittleness events will happen and eventually cause collapse of the whole complex system of the iron and steel supply chain.
(2) Through research, this thesis develops the complex system brittleness system of the iron and steel supply chain and constructs the brittleness factor system of the supply chain. It analyzes main elements of 110 iron and steel enterprises and obtains twelve main brittleness factors. The twelve factors are further summarized into six main brittleness events with corresponding main brittleness factors, namely increase in cost pressure, turmoil of external environment, less competitive advantages, deficiency of profitability, deficiency of capital management and weak development potential. Based on the above, it derives the brittleness degree formula.
(3) This thesis conducts mechanism research on the origin of the complex system brittleness of the iron and steel supply chain and based on theoretical assumption, it constructs original concept modal. Through test, valuation and amendment of the modal, this thesis eventually obtained the complex system brittleness structure modal of the iron and steel supply chain.
(4) This thesis establishes risk prediction modal of the complex system brittleness regarding the iron and steel supply chain. It researches the statistic of the 110 enterprises and develops criteria to divide the main brittleness factors and brittleness risk of iron and steel enterprises. It provides theoretical basis for establishment of brittleness of iron and steel enterprises and can help efficiently prevent the explosion of brittleness and even prevent collapse of iron and steel enterprises.
钢铁行业受国际经济危机的影响,市场受到重创。为了适应市场发展,保持钢铁企业的市场竞争力,而对钢铁行业供应链脆性进行研究就成为解决当前问题的一种途径。通过对钢铁企业供应链脆性进行研究,总结发现供应链中存在的薄弱环节,在实际经营活动中,做到有效预防,避免造成重大损失。
本文以钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性为研究对象,对脆性的概念及特征进行了描述,借鉴复杂系统脆性理论、供应链复杂性、供应链脆弱性理论以及风险传导理论,得到了钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性理论;构建了供应链脆性风险的脆性因子体系,并对钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性的产生进行机理研究,提出假设体系,建立了钢铁供应链复杂系统的脆性模型。最后本文得出了以下研究成果与研究结论:
(1)脆性是钢铁供应链复杂系统的一个固有特性,脆性的存在有供应链所处的外部环境以及其内部构成没有关系。但是,钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性能否被激发,与其外部环境和内部构成有必然关系。当钢铁供应链复杂系统的脆性因子被激发时,进而影响其脆性事件发生,最终导致整个钢铁供应链复杂系统发生崩溃。
(2)研究确定了钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性理论,并构建了供应链脆性因子体系。并以110家钢铁企业作为实证样本进行主成分分析,得到12个脆性因子主成分,并将这些主成分因子归纳为6个主要脆性事件及其相对应的主脆性因子:成本压力增加、外部环境动荡、市场竞争力不足、盈利能力不足、资金运营能力不足、发展潜力不足。并求出了钢铁供应链的脆性度计算方法。
(3)对钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性的产生进行了机理研究,提出假设体系,并建立了初始概念模型,通过对模型进行拟合检验、评价、修正,最终得到了钢铁供应链复杂系统的脆性结构模型。
(4)建立了钢铁供应链复杂系统脆性风险预测模型,并以110家样本企业的数据进行研究,得到了钢铁企业各主成分值以及脆性度危险性的划分标准。为确定钢铁企业脆性提供了理论依据,对有效地预防钢铁企业脆性爆发甚至企业发生崩溃提供帮助。
The U.S. financial crisis gradually spread worldwide and led Chinese iron and steel enterprises into great trouble. Most of these enterprises have adopted a series of adjustment measures. With the upturn of the global economy, the task for industrialization is once again ahead of Chinese iron and steel companies.
The market of the iron and steel industry was hit hard by the global economic crisis. To adapt to the development of the market and maintain the competitiveness of iron and steel enterprises, one feasible way is to conduct research on the supply chain brittleness of the industry and iron industry. Through such research, we can find weak links in the supply chain and make effective prevention in actual management so as to avoid heavy losses.
This thesis researches into complex system brittleness of the iron and steel supply chain. It describes the concept and features of brittleness and develops complex system brittleness theory of the iron and steel supply chain based on the complex system theory, complexity of supply chain, brittleness theory of supple chains as well as risk conduction theory. Further, it establishes the brittleness factor system of the supply chain and conducts mechanism research on the origin of complex system brittleness of the iron and steel industry supply chain and through theoretical assumption, it constructs brittleness modal of the iron and steel supply chains. This thesis obtains the following findings and conclusions:
(1) Brittleness is an inherent feature of the complex system of the iron and steel supply chain. The existence of brittleness has no relation to the external environment and internal structure of the supply chain. However, the external environment and internal structure of the supply chain are no doubt related to motivation of the complex system brittleness of the iron and steel supply chain. When the complex system brittleness factors of the iron and steel industry are motivated, brittleness events will happen and eventually cause collapse of the whole complex system of the iron and steel supply chain.
(2) Through research, this thesis develops the complex system brittleness system of the iron and steel supply chain and constructs the brittleness factor system of the supply chain. It analyzes main elements of 110 iron and steel enterprises and obtains twelve main brittleness factors. The twelve factors are further summarized into six main brittleness events with corresponding main brittleness factors, namely increase in cost pressure, turmoil of external environment, less competitive advantages, deficiency of profitability, deficiency of capital management and weak development potential. Based on the above, it derives the brittleness degree formula.
(3) This thesis conducts mechanism research on the origin of the complex system brittleness of the iron and steel supply chain and based on theoretical assumption, it constructs original concept modal. Through test, valuation and amendment of the modal, this thesis eventually obtained the complex system brittleness structure modal of the iron and steel supply chain.
(4) This thesis establishes risk prediction modal of the complex system brittleness regarding the iron and steel supply chain. It researches the statistic of the 110 enterprises and develops criteria to divide the main brittleness factors and brittleness risk of iron and steel enterprises. It provides theoretical basis for establishment of brittleness of iron and steel enterprises and can help efficiently prevent the explosion of brittleness and even prevent collapse of iron and steel enterprises.
引文
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