基于决策神经科学的不确定决策机理研究
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摘要
决策神经科学(Decision Neuroscience)是新兴的前沿交叉学科,也是管理科学的新生研究领域。它延伸了行为决策科学,从认知神经学层面研究决策行为,打开传统决策研究的“黑箱”,解读决策行为的过程,通过对决策的神经发生机理的探讨,来构建基于过程的决策处理模型。
著名管理学家Simon提出:“决策是管理的心脏,管理由一系列决策组成,管理就是决策”。而不确定决策(decision making under uncertainty)则是决策理论研究的核心。Kahneman因其从心理认知角度对“不确定性条件下判断与决策”的研究贡献获得2002年诺贝尔经济学奖。
本研究以不确定决策过程为研究对象,采用决策神经科学的实验方法,运用事件相关电位(event-related potential,ERP)研究工具,设计了4个不确定决策相关实验来研究不确定决策的神经基础。利用ERP高时间分辨率(精确到毫秒)的特点,本研究关注决策者从接触决策情境到做出决策这一时间区间的脑神经活跃特征。本研究发现,不确定决策过程可分为含糊信息处理、风险信息处理和决策态度形成三个阶段,并找到了各阶段处理的脑电成分依据。通过特征脑电成分的差异分析,本研究发现含糊决策、风险决策的不确定决策过程存在差异,情绪对不确定决策过程存在调节作用。根据脑电成分随各阶段时间进程的变化以及它们之间的数量关系,结合行为数据分析,以及过去有关神经科学、决策科学、认知科学和行为决策的研究成果,深入探讨了基于决策神经科学的不确定决策机理,得到以下系列研究结论:
(1)在不确定决策过程中,含糊信息处理先于风险信息处理发生,且是无意识的自动过程,可由早期脑电成分P2来表征,它代表了对含糊信息的处理,其振幅对不确定决策中决策信息的缺失程度敏感。风险决策和确定决策的P2振幅均大于含糊决策的P2振幅,但风险决策和确定决策之间的P2振幅没有差异;在含糊决策中,信息的不确定性越高,P2振幅越小,但是在风险决策中,信息的不确定性大小,不会引起振幅差异。在不确定决策过程中,含糊信息首先被处理,决策信息的缺失程度是其处理的关键。
(2)在不确定决策过程中,风险信息在含糊信息处理之后被处理,是有意识的认知处理,可由出现在P2成分之后的N2脑电成分来表征。N2成分表征对不确定决策中风险信息处理诱发的决策冲突,其振幅对不确定决策中风险信息的不确定性敏感。含糊决策的N2振幅大于风险决策的N2振幅,风险决策的N2振幅大于确定决策的N2振幅;在风险决策中,风险信息的不确定性越大,N2成分的振幅越大,但是在含糊决策中,N2的振幅对决策信息不确定程度不敏感。不确定决策中风险信息处理诱发决策冲突,并可能受含糊信息存在的影响,引起更大的决策冲突。
(3)在不确定决策过程晚期,决策者的决策态度形成,可由P2、N2之后的晚期脑电成分P3来表征。P3成分表征决策者对决策中不确定的厌恶或规避态度。含糊决策、风险决策的P3成分振幅均小于确定决策的P3成分振幅,且它们之间没有差异;在含糊决策中,信息的不确定性差异不会引起P3成分振幅的差异,在风险决策中亦是如此。含糊决策、风险决策相对于确定决策均引起决策者厌恶或规避的决策态度。由于采用单一的无比较的决策任务,排除了任务比较因素对决策态度的影响,发现风险厌恶态度与含糊厌恶态度没有显著差异。
(4)情绪对不确定决策过程具有调节作用,可由不同效价情绪启动下,不确定决策过程脑电成分P2、N2、P3的差异来表征。在含糊信息处理阶段,情绪促进含糊信息的处理,占用更少的认知资源;在风险信息处理阶段,情绪会调节风险信息处理诱发的决策冲突,即认知控制,决策者在风险信息处理阶段认知控制的加强,能够提高决策绩效,反之则降低决策绩效;在决策态度形成阶段,因情绪效价不同对决策态度的调节也有差异,其中负性情绪增大了不确定决策的厌恶态度。情绪对风险决策、含糊决策的调节存在差异。其中,害怕的负性情绪对含糊决策的影响最大。害怕的负性情绪易于造成含糊信息处理阶段决策信息处理占用资源的减少,风险信息处理阶段决策认知控制削弱,不确定厌恶态度增强,导致决策绩效降低。
本研究的创新点如下:
(1)本研究以决策产生过程为研究对象,研究不确定决策的信息处理和态度认知,运用决策神经科学的研究工具,将不确定决策研究从行为层面推向神经层面,打开过去决策研究的“黑箱”。本研究利用事件相关电位高时间分辨率的特点,发现不确定决策中含糊信息处理、风险信息处理、决策态度形成对应的脑电成分,它们分别是具有时间先后发生顺序的P2、N2、P3成分,弥补了传统决策科学中对决策过程在时间维度上的研究缺失。
(2)本研究发现由于不确定决策信息中可能同时包含含糊信息和风险信息,因此存在两个不同的信息处理过程,其中含糊信息的处理先于风险信息的处理。本结论为Tverksy & Fox(1995)提出的基于前景理论的含糊决策二阶段概率权重模型的潜在假设,即首先处理含糊信息,将含糊决策转化为风险决策来处理,找到了神经基础,从决策神经科学的角度验证Fox & Weber(2002)等提出的含糊决策与风险决策过程是两个不同决策过程的观点;基于事件相关电位找到含糊决策、风险决策过程差异的脑电特征丰富了基于功能磁共振的不确定决策的相关研究,特别是与Smith et al(2002)发表在Management Science上,Hsu et al(2005)发表在Science上的关于含糊决策、风险决策差异的脑区活跃研究结论形成互补。
(3)情绪对不确定决策过程具有调节作用,风险信息处理阶段的认知控制在情绪调节中起重要作用。本结论从决策神经科学的角度,发现Damasio(1994)等提出的情绪促进决策与Slovic et al(2002)等提出的情绪是决策偏见诱因的观点彼此并不矛盾,只是分别从决策过程和决策结果的角度来研究情绪对决策影响,体现在不确定决策过程的不同阶段。本研究中,决策者在风险信息处理阶段认知控制的加强,能够提高决策绩效,反之则降低决策绩效的结论验证了Seo &Barrett(2007)发表在Academy of Management Journal上情绪与决策绩效的行为实验相关研究结论,当决策者对情绪体验的调控越强,且能对该体验作出调整时,决策绩效越高。
Decision Neuroscience is an emergency interdisciplinary research area,which has been attracted many scholars from management,economics,psychology and neuroscience working together to looking for the neural basis of decision making.It is also a new research area of management science.The aim of decision neuroscience is to combine the research of behavior decision making and neuroscience.It is the extension of behavior decision making,which can show the characteristics of decision making from neural level with the studying of "block box" in traditional decision science,read the process of decision behavior,and explore the neural mechanism of decision making in order to build more predictable decision models.
Simon has proposed that "decision is the heart of management,management is composed by a series of decisions,management is decision making".Decision making under uncertainty is the core of decision making theory research.Kahneman got the 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics because of his contributions to decision making under uncertainty from the psychology cognitive perspective.
In this study,the process of decision making under uncertainty as research object, using the experimental method of decision neuroscience and events related potential (ERP) as research tools,we design four experiments about decision making under uncertainty to study the neural basis of decision making under uncertainty.Taking the advantage of high resolution of the time(accurate to milliseconds) of ERP,the study focuses on the neural activity of decision making from decision makers facing the decision situations to make decisions.The results shows that decision process of uncertainty can be divided into ambiguity information processing and risk information processing and decision attitude which can be indexed by the ERP components,and decision making under ambiguity and risk have differences in the process of decision making under uncertainty;emotions have adjustment function on decision making under uncertainty which can be showed by the differences of ERP components. According to the ERP components with various stages of the process time and quantitative relationship between them,behavior related data analysis,and conbining neuroscience,decision science,congintive science,and behavior decision making related research outcomes,the mechanism of decision making under uncertainty based on decision neuroscience is discussed and the series of research conclusions are as followings:
(1) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,the ambiguity information is processed unconsciously before the risk information,which can be indexed by the ERP component P2.The component P2 stands for ambiguity information detection in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The amplitude of P2 is sensitive to the degree of decision information missing.The amplitude of P2 in decision making under certainty and risk is larger than that of ambiguity and there is no significant difference between them.The amplitude of P2 is decreased by the uncertainty information ascending in the decision making under ambiguity,but the amplitude of P2 is not sensitive to the uncertainty information fluctuating in the decision making under risk.The ambiguity information is processed firstly in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The degree of decision information lacking is crucial to this process.
(2) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,the risk information is processed consciously after the ambiguity information,which can be indexed by the ERP component N2.The component N2 stands for risk information process which elicits decision conflict in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The amplitude of N2 is sensitive to the degree of uncertainty from risk information.The amplitude of N2 in decision making under ambiguity is larger than that of risk and that of risk is larger than that of certainty.In decision making under risk,the more the uncertainty of risk information,the larger the amplitude of N2,but the amplitude of N2 is not sensitive to the degree of uncertainty information.The risk information process elicits decision conflict which nay be influenced by ambiguity information leading to higher decision conflict.
(3) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,decision attitude is formed,which can be indexed by the ERP component P3.The component of P3 stands for aversion or avoidance attitude facing uncertainty.The amplitude of P3 in decision making under ambiguity and risk is less than that of certainty and there is no significant difference between them.In decision making under ambiguity,the degree of uncertainty information do not elicit the variance of P3 amplitude.So does decision making under risk.Contrast to certainty decision making,decision making under ambiguity and risk both elicit aversion or avoidance decision attitude,moreover,the decision attitude between ambiguity and risk do not have significant difference.
(4) Emotion modulates the process of decision making.The ERP components in the process of decision making under uncertainty like P2,N2,P3 is modulates by the valence of prime emotions.Emotion causes decision bias in the detection of ambiguity information,modulates the decision conflict elicited by risk information processing which reflect the cognitive control of decision bias,and influences the attitude to decision making under uncertainty.Emotion has different modulation effect between decision making under ambiguity and risk.Among them,negative fear emotion has the biggest influence on ambiguity decision making.Fear emotion easy to cause the perception bias in processing ambiguity information,weakens the cognitive control of risk information processing,increases the aversion or avoidance attitude to uncertainty,and finally decreases decision performance.
The innovation of this study is as following:
(1) In this study,using the process of decision making as research object, focusing on the information process and attitude cognitive of decision making under uncertainty,and employing the tool of decision neuroscience,we study the uncertainty decision making from behavior level to neural level and open the "block box" of traditional decision making.Using ERP,we found that the ERP components P2,N2, P3 responding to ambiguity information process,risk information process and decision attitude formation which makes up the research of decision process from time dimension in traditional decision science.Further more,ambiguity and risk information process is responding to systeml and sytem2 in dual system theory of decision,verified Kahneman et al(2002),Camerer et al(2005) and Sanfey & Chang (2008) 's view that decision is made by dual systems.The results also enriched the studies of decision neuroscience.
(2) From decision neuroscience view,we found that decision making under uncertainty including ambiguity information and risk information process.Ambiguity information was processed before risk information,risk information elicits decision conflict.Both of them have great effect to decision behavior.This results verified Tverksy & Fox(1995),Fox & Tverksy(1998),Wu & Gonzalez(1999),Kilka & Weber(2001) 's researches using two stages weighting function model modeling ambiguity decision.Moreover,the process of ambiguity information is related to unconscious automatic process.The results show that ambiguity and risk are different in neural process.
(3) Emotion has the modulation effect to the process of decision making under uncertainty,the phase of risk information process has an important role in this modulation.This conclusion found that emotion as the decision facilitator and emotion causes decision bias are not conflict.They make effect in different phase of decision process.This result also verified the research related with emotion and decision performance using behavior experiments indicating that while decision makers have stronger experience of emotion,the higher decision performance do.We give an explanation from decision neuroscience.
著名管理学家Simon提出:“决策是管理的心脏,管理由一系列决策组成,管理就是决策”。而不确定决策(decision making under uncertainty)则是决策理论研究的核心。Kahneman因其从心理认知角度对“不确定性条件下判断与决策”的研究贡献获得2002年诺贝尔经济学奖。
本研究以不确定决策过程为研究对象,采用决策神经科学的实验方法,运用事件相关电位(event-related potential,ERP)研究工具,设计了4个不确定决策相关实验来研究不确定决策的神经基础。利用ERP高时间分辨率(精确到毫秒)的特点,本研究关注决策者从接触决策情境到做出决策这一时间区间的脑神经活跃特征。本研究发现,不确定决策过程可分为含糊信息处理、风险信息处理和决策态度形成三个阶段,并找到了各阶段处理的脑电成分依据。通过特征脑电成分的差异分析,本研究发现含糊决策、风险决策的不确定决策过程存在差异,情绪对不确定决策过程存在调节作用。根据脑电成分随各阶段时间进程的变化以及它们之间的数量关系,结合行为数据分析,以及过去有关神经科学、决策科学、认知科学和行为决策的研究成果,深入探讨了基于决策神经科学的不确定决策机理,得到以下系列研究结论:
(1)在不确定决策过程中,含糊信息处理先于风险信息处理发生,且是无意识的自动过程,可由早期脑电成分P2来表征,它代表了对含糊信息的处理,其振幅对不确定决策中决策信息的缺失程度敏感。风险决策和确定决策的P2振幅均大于含糊决策的P2振幅,但风险决策和确定决策之间的P2振幅没有差异;在含糊决策中,信息的不确定性越高,P2振幅越小,但是在风险决策中,信息的不确定性大小,不会引起振幅差异。在不确定决策过程中,含糊信息首先被处理,决策信息的缺失程度是其处理的关键。
(2)在不确定决策过程中,风险信息在含糊信息处理之后被处理,是有意识的认知处理,可由出现在P2成分之后的N2脑电成分来表征。N2成分表征对不确定决策中风险信息处理诱发的决策冲突,其振幅对不确定决策中风险信息的不确定性敏感。含糊决策的N2振幅大于风险决策的N2振幅,风险决策的N2振幅大于确定决策的N2振幅;在风险决策中,风险信息的不确定性越大,N2成分的振幅越大,但是在含糊决策中,N2的振幅对决策信息不确定程度不敏感。不确定决策中风险信息处理诱发决策冲突,并可能受含糊信息存在的影响,引起更大的决策冲突。
(3)在不确定决策过程晚期,决策者的决策态度形成,可由P2、N2之后的晚期脑电成分P3来表征。P3成分表征决策者对决策中不确定的厌恶或规避态度。含糊决策、风险决策的P3成分振幅均小于确定决策的P3成分振幅,且它们之间没有差异;在含糊决策中,信息的不确定性差异不会引起P3成分振幅的差异,在风险决策中亦是如此。含糊决策、风险决策相对于确定决策均引起决策者厌恶或规避的决策态度。由于采用单一的无比较的决策任务,排除了任务比较因素对决策态度的影响,发现风险厌恶态度与含糊厌恶态度没有显著差异。
(4)情绪对不确定决策过程具有调节作用,可由不同效价情绪启动下,不确定决策过程脑电成分P2、N2、P3的差异来表征。在含糊信息处理阶段,情绪促进含糊信息的处理,占用更少的认知资源;在风险信息处理阶段,情绪会调节风险信息处理诱发的决策冲突,即认知控制,决策者在风险信息处理阶段认知控制的加强,能够提高决策绩效,反之则降低决策绩效;在决策态度形成阶段,因情绪效价不同对决策态度的调节也有差异,其中负性情绪增大了不确定决策的厌恶态度。情绪对风险决策、含糊决策的调节存在差异。其中,害怕的负性情绪对含糊决策的影响最大。害怕的负性情绪易于造成含糊信息处理阶段决策信息处理占用资源的减少,风险信息处理阶段决策认知控制削弱,不确定厌恶态度增强,导致决策绩效降低。
本研究的创新点如下:
(1)本研究以决策产生过程为研究对象,研究不确定决策的信息处理和态度认知,运用决策神经科学的研究工具,将不确定决策研究从行为层面推向神经层面,打开过去决策研究的“黑箱”。本研究利用事件相关电位高时间分辨率的特点,发现不确定决策中含糊信息处理、风险信息处理、决策态度形成对应的脑电成分,它们分别是具有时间先后发生顺序的P2、N2、P3成分,弥补了传统决策科学中对决策过程在时间维度上的研究缺失。
(2)本研究发现由于不确定决策信息中可能同时包含含糊信息和风险信息,因此存在两个不同的信息处理过程,其中含糊信息的处理先于风险信息的处理。本结论为Tverksy & Fox(1995)提出的基于前景理论的含糊决策二阶段概率权重模型的潜在假设,即首先处理含糊信息,将含糊决策转化为风险决策来处理,找到了神经基础,从决策神经科学的角度验证Fox & Weber(2002)等提出的含糊决策与风险决策过程是两个不同决策过程的观点;基于事件相关电位找到含糊决策、风险决策过程差异的脑电特征丰富了基于功能磁共振的不确定决策的相关研究,特别是与Smith et al(2002)发表在Management Science上,Hsu et al(2005)发表在Science上的关于含糊决策、风险决策差异的脑区活跃研究结论形成互补。
(3)情绪对不确定决策过程具有调节作用,风险信息处理阶段的认知控制在情绪调节中起重要作用。本结论从决策神经科学的角度,发现Damasio(1994)等提出的情绪促进决策与Slovic et al(2002)等提出的情绪是决策偏见诱因的观点彼此并不矛盾,只是分别从决策过程和决策结果的角度来研究情绪对决策影响,体现在不确定决策过程的不同阶段。本研究中,决策者在风险信息处理阶段认知控制的加强,能够提高决策绩效,反之则降低决策绩效的结论验证了Seo &Barrett(2007)发表在Academy of Management Journal上情绪与决策绩效的行为实验相关研究结论,当决策者对情绪体验的调控越强,且能对该体验作出调整时,决策绩效越高。
Decision Neuroscience is an emergency interdisciplinary research area,which has been attracted many scholars from management,economics,psychology and neuroscience working together to looking for the neural basis of decision making.It is also a new research area of management science.The aim of decision neuroscience is to combine the research of behavior decision making and neuroscience.It is the extension of behavior decision making,which can show the characteristics of decision making from neural level with the studying of "block box" in traditional decision science,read the process of decision behavior,and explore the neural mechanism of decision making in order to build more predictable decision models.
Simon has proposed that "decision is the heart of management,management is composed by a series of decisions,management is decision making".Decision making under uncertainty is the core of decision making theory research.Kahneman got the 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics because of his contributions to decision making under uncertainty from the psychology cognitive perspective.
In this study,the process of decision making under uncertainty as research object, using the experimental method of decision neuroscience and events related potential (ERP) as research tools,we design four experiments about decision making under uncertainty to study the neural basis of decision making under uncertainty.Taking the advantage of high resolution of the time(accurate to milliseconds) of ERP,the study focuses on the neural activity of decision making from decision makers facing the decision situations to make decisions.The results shows that decision process of uncertainty can be divided into ambiguity information processing and risk information processing and decision attitude which can be indexed by the ERP components,and decision making under ambiguity and risk have differences in the process of decision making under uncertainty;emotions have adjustment function on decision making under uncertainty which can be showed by the differences of ERP components. According to the ERP components with various stages of the process time and quantitative relationship between them,behavior related data analysis,and conbining neuroscience,decision science,congintive science,and behavior decision making related research outcomes,the mechanism of decision making under uncertainty based on decision neuroscience is discussed and the series of research conclusions are as followings:
(1) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,the ambiguity information is processed unconsciously before the risk information,which can be indexed by the ERP component P2.The component P2 stands for ambiguity information detection in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The amplitude of P2 is sensitive to the degree of decision information missing.The amplitude of P2 in decision making under certainty and risk is larger than that of ambiguity and there is no significant difference between them.The amplitude of P2 is decreased by the uncertainty information ascending in the decision making under ambiguity,but the amplitude of P2 is not sensitive to the uncertainty information fluctuating in the decision making under risk.The ambiguity information is processed firstly in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The degree of decision information lacking is crucial to this process.
(2) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,the risk information is processed consciously after the ambiguity information,which can be indexed by the ERP component N2.The component N2 stands for risk information process which elicits decision conflict in the process of decision making under uncertainty.The amplitude of N2 is sensitive to the degree of uncertainty from risk information.The amplitude of N2 in decision making under ambiguity is larger than that of risk and that of risk is larger than that of certainty.In decision making under risk,the more the uncertainty of risk information,the larger the amplitude of N2,but the amplitude of N2 is not sensitive to the degree of uncertainty information.The risk information process elicits decision conflict which nay be influenced by ambiguity information leading to higher decision conflict.
(3) In the process of decision making under uncertainty,decision attitude is formed,which can be indexed by the ERP component P3.The component of P3 stands for aversion or avoidance attitude facing uncertainty.The amplitude of P3 in decision making under ambiguity and risk is less than that of certainty and there is no significant difference between them.In decision making under ambiguity,the degree of uncertainty information do not elicit the variance of P3 amplitude.So does decision making under risk.Contrast to certainty decision making,decision making under ambiguity and risk both elicit aversion or avoidance decision attitude,moreover,the decision attitude between ambiguity and risk do not have significant difference.
(4) Emotion modulates the process of decision making.The ERP components in the process of decision making under uncertainty like P2,N2,P3 is modulates by the valence of prime emotions.Emotion causes decision bias in the detection of ambiguity information,modulates the decision conflict elicited by risk information processing which reflect the cognitive control of decision bias,and influences the attitude to decision making under uncertainty.Emotion has different modulation effect between decision making under ambiguity and risk.Among them,negative fear emotion has the biggest influence on ambiguity decision making.Fear emotion easy to cause the perception bias in processing ambiguity information,weakens the cognitive control of risk information processing,increases the aversion or avoidance attitude to uncertainty,and finally decreases decision performance.
The innovation of this study is as following:
(1) In this study,using the process of decision making as research object, focusing on the information process and attitude cognitive of decision making under uncertainty,and employing the tool of decision neuroscience,we study the uncertainty decision making from behavior level to neural level and open the "block box" of traditional decision making.Using ERP,we found that the ERP components P2,N2, P3 responding to ambiguity information process,risk information process and decision attitude formation which makes up the research of decision process from time dimension in traditional decision science.Further more,ambiguity and risk information process is responding to systeml and sytem2 in dual system theory of decision,verified Kahneman et al(2002),Camerer et al(2005) and Sanfey & Chang (2008) 's view that decision is made by dual systems.The results also enriched the studies of decision neuroscience.
(2) From decision neuroscience view,we found that decision making under uncertainty including ambiguity information and risk information process.Ambiguity information was processed before risk information,risk information elicits decision conflict.Both of them have great effect to decision behavior.This results verified Tverksy & Fox(1995),Fox & Tverksy(1998),Wu & Gonzalez(1999),Kilka & Weber(2001) 's researches using two stages weighting function model modeling ambiguity decision.Moreover,the process of ambiguity information is related to unconscious automatic process.The results show that ambiguity and risk are different in neural process.
(3) Emotion has the modulation effect to the process of decision making under uncertainty,the phase of risk information process has an important role in this modulation.This conclusion found that emotion as the decision facilitator and emotion causes decision bias are not conflict.They make effect in different phase of decision process.This result also verified the research related with emotion and decision performance using behavior experiments indicating that while decision makers have stronger experience of emotion,the higher decision performance do.We give an explanation from decision neuroscience.
引文
1http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%85%8B%E8%8B%8F%E9%B2%81%E7%A5%9E%E8%AF %9D
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