企业研发模式选择与自主研发投资决策研究
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摘要
面对越来越激烈的市场竞争，我国企业要在世界市场中拥有一席之地，必须首先要拥有自己的自主知识产权，否则，就无法建立起核心竞争优势，参与世界范围内的激烈竞争。企业若要建立核心竞争优势，就必须通过深入研发(research and development，R&D)，积极开发新产品、新技术与新工艺，建立持续竞争力，掌握竞争的主动权。与发达国家的跨国公司相比，我国的企业在研发上的投资总量和投资效益上都不具有优势，因此，这就更要求我国企业提高投资决策的水平，科学决策，提高投资效益。
R&D项目投资具有不确定性、不可逆性和竞争性的特点。传统的投资决策方法与单一的实物期权方法已经不能满足对R&D项目投资决策的需要了。本文结合R&D项目的这些特性，应用博弈理论，对两个企业在自主研发与合作研发、自主研发与学习模仿之间选择的博弈问题进行了均衡分析，分别得到了相应的均衡策略，并对所获得的均衡策略进行了分析，提出了相应的管理方针；利用期权博弈理论与方法，研究了在自主研发模式下，企业如何在R&D项目投资过程中进行科学地决策的问题，得出了企业最优的投资临界点和投资时机。
Facing with increasingly fierce market competition, China's enterprises want to secure a foothold in the world market, they must have their own independent intellectual property rights first. Otherwise, it is impossible to establish a core competitive advantage in the fierce competition worldwide. To establish the core enterprise competitive advantage, it must do in-depth research and development (R&D), and develop new products, new technologies and new techniques actively, establish sustained competitiveness, grasp the initiative of competition. Compared with the multinational companies of developed countries, China's enterprises in the total amount of investment in research and development and the investment returns are not on the edge, which is more call for China's enterprises to improve the level of investment decision-making, make scientific decisions, and raise investment returns.
R&D investment has uncertain, irreversible and competitive characteristics. The traditional investment decision methods and the single real options approach has been unable to meet with the needs of the R&D project investment decisions. Combining with these features of R&D project, the author analyzed the game problem between independent R&D with cooperation and learning to imitate between two enterprises by game theory, find their equilibrium and analyze them. According to the analysis the author proposed management approach; At the same time, the author studies the two enterprises how to make scientific decisions in R&D project investment process under independent R&D mode using option-game theory and get optimal critical point of investment and investment timing which two enterprises invest.
R&D项目投资具有不确定性、不可逆性和竞争性的特点。传统的投资决策方法与单一的实物期权方法已经不能满足对R&D项目投资决策的需要了。本文结合R&D项目的这些特性，应用博弈理论，对两个企业在自主研发与合作研发、自主研发与学习模仿之间选择的博弈问题进行了均衡分析，分别得到了相应的均衡策略，并对所获得的均衡策略进行了分析，提出了相应的管理方针；利用期权博弈理论与方法，研究了在自主研发模式下，企业如何在R&D项目投资过程中进行科学地决策的问题，得出了企业最优的投资临界点和投资时机。
Facing with increasingly fierce market competition, China's enterprises want to secure a foothold in the world market, they must have their own independent intellectual property rights first. Otherwise, it is impossible to establish a core competitive advantage in the fierce competition worldwide. To establish the core enterprise competitive advantage, it must do in-depth research and development (R&D), and develop new products, new technologies and new techniques actively, establish sustained competitiveness, grasp the initiative of competition. Compared with the multinational companies of developed countries, China's enterprises in the total amount of investment in research and development and the investment returns are not on the edge, which is more call for China's enterprises to improve the level of investment decision-making, make scientific decisions, and raise investment returns.
R&D investment has uncertain, irreversible and competitive characteristics. The traditional investment decision methods and the single real options approach has been unable to meet with the needs of the R&D project investment decisions. Combining with these features of R&D project, the author analyzed the game problem between independent R&D with cooperation and learning to imitate between two enterprises by game theory, find their equilibrium and analyze them. According to the analysis the author proposed management approach; At the same time, the author studies the two enterprises how to make scientific decisions in R&D project investment process under independent R&D mode using option-game theory and get optimal critical point of investment and investment timing which two enterprises invest.
引文
① 所有数据来源于国家统计局2006年统计数据．http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/qtsj/dzxgyqyzzcxtjzl/2006/
③ 所有数据来源于国家统计局2006年统计数据。http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/qtsj/dzxgyqyzzcxtjzl/2006/
[1] 郑飏飏，郑渝．国内外R&D研究综述．科技管理研究[J]．2006(3)：251～253
[2] Dixit A K, Pindyck R S. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton Press, 1994
[3] Myers S C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 1977, 5(2): 147～175
[4] Dean J. Capital Budgeting, New York: Columbia University Press, 1951
[5] Geske. The valuation of compound options, Journal of Financial Economics, 1979, 7(1): 63～81
[6] Magee. How to use decision trees in capital investment, Harvard Business Review, 1964, 42: 79～96
[7] Kulatilaka, N. and Perotti, E. C. Strategic Growth Options. Management Science, 1998 (44)8: 1021～1031
[8] Schwartz E. S and Moon M. Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited. Working Paper. 2000
[9] Bellalah M. Irreversibility, Sunk Costs and Investment under Incomplete Information. R&D Management, 2001 (31): 115～126
[10] Smets F. Exporting versus FDI: The Effect of Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Strategic Interactions. Working paper, Yale University, 1991, 200～215
[11] Huisman K J, Kort P M. Effects of Strategic Interaction on the Option Value of Waiting. Working paper, Tilburg University, 1999, 20～35
[12] Kulatilaka, N. and Perotti, E. C. Time-to-Market Capability as a Staekelberg Growth Option. Working paper, Boston University, 1999
[13] Lambrecht B, W Perraudin. Creditor Races and Contingent Claims. European Economic Review, 1994, (40): 897～907
[14] Lambrecht B, W Perraudin. Real Options and Preemption under Incomplete Information. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1996, (27): 619～643
[15] Weeds H. Strategic Delay in a Real Option Model of R&D Competition. Review of Economic Studies, 2002, 69(3): 1461～1480
[16] Mason, R. and Weeds, H., Can Greater Uncertainty Hasten Investment? Working paper, University of Southampton and CEPR, 16th January, 2003
[17] Thijssen, J. J. J., Huisman, K. J. M. and Kort, P. M., The Effects of Information on Strategic Investment and Welfare. Working paper. Trinity College, October 2003
[18] 戴和忠．现实期权在R&D项目评价中的应用．科学管理研究[J]．2000(3)：61～63
[19] 郑德渊，李湛．R&D项目评价的实物期权方法．技术经济与管理研究[J]．2000(5)：40～41
[20] 许民利，张子刚．期权理论在R&D投资决策中的应用．电子科技大学学报[J]．2000，(5)：651～654
[21] 王建华，李楚霖．投资项目的期权乘数与最优投资规则．武汉理工大学学报[J]．2002，24(3)：84～87
[22] 杨明．有潜在竞争者的R&D项目策略分析．数量经济与技术经济研究[J]．2002(10)
[23] 易江，李楚霖．寡头厂商的研发决策分析．华中科技大学学报(自然科学版)[J]，2002，30(4)：75～77
[24] 柴正猛，张岩贵．融资视角下跨国公司与东道国企业之间的研发竞争动态博弈．南开经济研究[J]．2004．4：58～61(74)
[25] 张理，易江．对一类市场需求垄断厂商R&D投资决策的实物期权分析．价值工程[J]．2004．5：19～21
[26] 吴建祖，宣慧玉．经营成本对企业研发投资决策影响的期权博弈分析．系统工程[J]，2004．5．Vol(22)．No．5
[27] 唐振鹏．基于期权博弈理论的企业技术创新投资决策研究．武汉理工大学博士学位论文．2003
[28] 雷星晖，李来俊．竞争环境下基于期权博弈的R&D投资决策研究．管理科学[J]．2004(2)．Vol(17)
[29] 傅家骥主编．技术创新学[M]．清华大学出版社．1998
[30] 杨春鹏．实物期权及其应用[M]．复旦大学出版社．2003年11月(第一版)
[31] 张志强．期权理论与公司理财[M]．华夏出版社．2000年
[32] 张维迎．博弈论与信息经济学[M]．上海人民出版社．2004
[33] Avinash K．Dixit，Robert S．Pindyck．朱勇，黄立虎等译．不确定条件下的投资[M]．131～136．中国人民大学出版社，2002
[34] 彭纪生，刘春林．自主创新与模仿创新的博弈分析．科学管理研究[J]．2003．12(6)
[35] 刘和东，石岿然．自主创新与模仿的博弈分析．科学学与技术管理[J]．2007．4：68～70
[36] Weeds, H. Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition. Review of Economic Studies. 2002(69): 729～747.
[37] Helen Weeds, Strategy Delay in a Real Option Model of R&D Competition, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 1999.
[38] 安瑛晖，张维．期权博弈理论的方法模型分析与发展．管理科学学报[J]．2001．2．Vol(4)
[39] 王朱磊．基于期权理论与博弈论的投资决策方法研究——不确定环境下的投资管理．华南理工大学硕士学位论文．2002：6～14
[40] 李纲，吴学军．不确定性、风险与信息约束．情报理论与实践[J]．1998年第1期
[41] 张梅琳．对外投资决策的不确定性分析．国际商务研究[J]．1999年第6期
[42] 李刚，陈昌柏．企业自主创新模式选择．科技与经济[J]．2006年第1期．Vol(19)
[43] 张志强．期权理论与公司理财[M]．华夏出版社．2000年
[44] 于成永，施建军．研发模式选择及其对创新绩效的影响——一个研究综述．经济管理[J]．2006．19
③ 所有数据来源于国家统计局2006年统计数据。http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/qtsj/dzxgyqyzzcxtjzl/2006/
[1] 郑飏飏，郑渝．国内外R&D研究综述．科技管理研究[J]．2006(3)：251～253
[2] Dixit A K, Pindyck R S. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton: Princeton Press, 1994
[3] Myers S C. Determinants of Corporate Borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics, 1977, 5(2): 147～175
[4] Dean J. Capital Budgeting, New York: Columbia University Press, 1951
[5] Geske. The valuation of compound options, Journal of Financial Economics, 1979, 7(1): 63～81
[6] Magee. How to use decision trees in capital investment, Harvard Business Review, 1964, 42: 79～96
[7] Kulatilaka, N. and Perotti, E. C. Strategic Growth Options. Management Science, 1998 (44)8: 1021～1031
[8] Schwartz E. S and Moon M. Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited. Working Paper. 2000
[9] Bellalah M. Irreversibility, Sunk Costs and Investment under Incomplete Information. R&D Management, 2001 (31): 115～126
[10] Smets F. Exporting versus FDI: The Effect of Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Strategic Interactions. Working paper, Yale University, 1991, 200～215
[11] Huisman K J, Kort P M. Effects of Strategic Interaction on the Option Value of Waiting. Working paper, Tilburg University, 1999, 20～35
[12] Kulatilaka, N. and Perotti, E. C. Time-to-Market Capability as a Staekelberg Growth Option. Working paper, Boston University, 1999
[13] Lambrecht B, W Perraudin. Creditor Races and Contingent Claims. European Economic Review, 1994, (40): 897～907
[14] Lambrecht B, W Perraudin. Real Options and Preemption under Incomplete Information. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1996, (27): 619～643
[15] Weeds H. Strategic Delay in a Real Option Model of R&D Competition. Review of Economic Studies, 2002, 69(3): 1461～1480
[16] Mason, R. and Weeds, H., Can Greater Uncertainty Hasten Investment? Working paper, University of Southampton and CEPR, 16th January, 2003
[17] Thijssen, J. J. J., Huisman, K. J. M. and Kort, P. M., The Effects of Information on Strategic Investment and Welfare. Working paper. Trinity College, October 2003
[18] 戴和忠．现实期权在R&D项目评价中的应用．科学管理研究[J]．2000(3)：61～63
[19] 郑德渊，李湛．R&D项目评价的实物期权方法．技术经济与管理研究[J]．2000(5)：40～41
[20] 许民利，张子刚．期权理论在R&D投资决策中的应用．电子科技大学学报[J]．2000，(5)：651～654
[21] 王建华，李楚霖．投资项目的期权乘数与最优投资规则．武汉理工大学学报[J]．2002，24(3)：84～87
[22] 杨明．有潜在竞争者的R&D项目策略分析．数量经济与技术经济研究[J]．2002(10)
[23] 易江，李楚霖．寡头厂商的研发决策分析．华中科技大学学报(自然科学版)[J]，2002，30(4)：75～77
[24] 柴正猛，张岩贵．融资视角下跨国公司与东道国企业之间的研发竞争动态博弈．南开经济研究[J]．2004．4：58～61(74)
[25] 张理，易江．对一类市场需求垄断厂商R&D投资决策的实物期权分析．价值工程[J]．2004．5：19～21
[26] 吴建祖，宣慧玉．经营成本对企业研发投资决策影响的期权博弈分析．系统工程[J]，2004．5．Vol(22)．No．5
[27] 唐振鹏．基于期权博弈理论的企业技术创新投资决策研究．武汉理工大学博士学位论文．2003
[28] 雷星晖，李来俊．竞争环境下基于期权博弈的R&D投资决策研究．管理科学[J]．2004(2)．Vol(17)
[29] 傅家骥主编．技术创新学[M]．清华大学出版社．1998
[30] 杨春鹏．实物期权及其应用[M]．复旦大学出版社．2003年11月(第一版)
[31] 张志强．期权理论与公司理财[M]．华夏出版社．2000年
[32] 张维迎．博弈论与信息经济学[M]．上海人民出版社．2004
[33] Avinash K．Dixit，Robert S．Pindyck．朱勇，黄立虎等译．不确定条件下的投资[M]．131～136．中国人民大学出版社，2002
[34] 彭纪生，刘春林．自主创新与模仿创新的博弈分析．科学管理研究[J]．2003．12(6)
[35] 刘和东，石岿然．自主创新与模仿的博弈分析．科学学与技术管理[J]．2007．4：68～70
[36] Weeds, H. Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition. Review of Economic Studies. 2002(69): 729～747.
[37] Helen Weeds, Strategy Delay in a Real Option Model of R&D Competition, University of Cambridge Working Paper, 1999.
[38] 安瑛晖，张维．期权博弈理论的方法模型分析与发展．管理科学学报[J]．2001．2．Vol(4)
[39] 王朱磊．基于期权理论与博弈论的投资决策方法研究——不确定环境下的投资管理．华南理工大学硕士学位论文．2002：6～14
[40] 李纲，吴学军．不确定性、风险与信息约束．情报理论与实践[J]．1998年第1期
[41] 张梅琳．对外投资决策的不确定性分析．国际商务研究[J]．1999年第6期
[42] 李刚，陈昌柏．企业自主创新模式选择．科技与经济[J]．2006年第1期．Vol(19)
[43] 张志强．期权理论与公司理财[M]．华夏出版社．2000年
[44] 于成永，施建军．研发模式选择及其对创新绩效的影响——一个研究综述．经济管理[J]．2006．19