不同情境中乐观偏差及其影响因素
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摘要
乐观偏差是指“在事件发生概率相同的条件下,与他人比较时,人们认为积极事件发生在自己身上的可能性更高,而消极事件发生在他人身上的可能性更高的倾向”。根据乐观偏差的表现形式,可以分为指向自己的Ⅰ型乐观偏差(即个体认为积极事件更可能发生在自己身上)和指向他人的Ⅱ型乐观偏差(即个体认为消极事件更可能发生在他人身上)。乐观偏差存在于各种领域,并且具有积极和消极两方面的作用。在积极方面,乐观偏差可以使个体保持相对高水平的自尊,减少焦虑,有助于维护个体的心理健康；乐观偏差能预测人们的身体健康,它与个体更低的患病率和更多的健康行为有关；乐观偏差还可以激发个体更高的成就动机、更大的任务坚持性,并最终取得更好的绩效和更大的成功。在消极方面,当人们在风险事件上有乐观偏差倾向时,认为自己更不可能经历某些危险事件,会导致人们更多采取冒险行为,或者阻碍人们采取有效的预防措施以降低可能遭遇的危险。因此,利用乐观偏差的积极影响,让人们对自己及世界拥有更多积极乐观的看法,有更多的主观幸福感；同时,认识乐观偏差的消极作用,可以降低或消除乐观偏差对个体产生的不利影响。
在对“乐观偏差”的研究进行文献综述时发现,国内对乐观偏差的实证研究尚不多见,而国外对乐观偏差的研究通常采用自陈量表的方式在外显层面上来考察人们的乐观偏差状况,研究方法较为单一。因此,有必要要采用其他的研究方法,例如内隐测量方法来对乐观偏差进行考察,既是对研究方法的补充,也可以在内隐层面上探讨乐观偏差是否具有内隐的特点。第二,以往对健康情境中有关事件特征对乐观偏差的影响之研究多数是相关研究,相关研究的结果不能做出因果推论。而且相关研究没有对某个事件特征进行严格的控制,因此研究中的事件特征可能与其他因素产生交互作用,一起对乐观偏差产生影响。第三,以往只有较少的研究在临时的虚拟群体中考察了组织成员的组织忠诚对乐观偏差的影响,没有在真正的组织情境中进行研究。
本研究首先在中国文化背景下对大学生的乐观偏差状况进行考察。然后借鉴内隐社会认知的研究范式,采用IAT和GNAT在内隐层面上对乐观偏差进行考察。接着采用实验法分别在健康情境和组织情境中对乐观偏差的影响因素进行实证研究。
具体来说,论文由四个研究组成。
研究一采用问卷调查方法,以大学生为研究对象,调查大学生的乐观偏差状况。研究二是本研究的重点所在,借鉴内隐社会认知研究中常用的IAT和GNAT研究范式,在内隐层面上对乐观偏差进行考察,探讨乐观偏差是否具有自动化、无意识的内隐特点。研究三采用实验法,在健康情境中,研究可控性和严重性两个事件特征对乐观偏差的影响。研究四采用实验法,在组织情境中考察组织认同和不同外显测量方法对乐观偏差的影响。上述研究结果表明：
(1)大学生群体在将来生活事件上普遍存在乐观偏差,具体表现为两种类型：第一种为指向自己的Ⅰ型乐观偏差,即大学生认为积极事件更可能发生在自己身上；第二种为指向他人的Ⅱ型乐观偏差,即大学生认为消极事件更可能发生在他人身上；但乐观偏差在性别上没有差异。气质性乐观对乐观偏差有影响,乐观者在积极事件和消极事件上都比悲观者表现出更大程度的乐观偏差。
(2)IAT和GNAT的研究都表明,乐观偏差具有自动化和无意识的内隐特点。
(3)在健康情境中,可控性和严重性这两个事件特征对乐观偏差有显著影响,表现为事件可控性越大,被试表现出的乐观偏差程度越大；事件严重性越低,被试表现出的乐观偏差程度越大。
(4)在组织情境中,组织认同对乐观偏差有影响,表现为：启动组织成员对组织的认同,会导致其更高程度的乐观偏差；但乐观偏差在直接比较测量和间接比较测量中对没有显著差异。
本研究在以下四个方面具有一定新意：
首先,根据国外学者对乐观偏差的研究,在中国文化背景下,考察了大学生群体的乐观偏差现状,并探讨了产生乐观偏差的心理机制,对国内乐观偏差的实证研究进行了补充。
第二,采用内隐研究范式在内隐层面上对乐观偏差进行了考察。结果发现,乐观偏差具有无意识、自动化的内隐特点。另外,在研究方法上采用内隐测量方法是对以往乐观偏差研究方法单一性的有益补充。
第三,在健康情境中,采用实验法考察了事件特征对乐观偏差的影响,可以对以往的相关研究结果进行验证和相互补充。
第四,以往尚未有研究在真实的组织情境中探讨组织成员的乐观偏差。本研究在真实的组织情境中考察了组织认同对乐观偏差的影响,对组织实践领域能够提供一定的借鉴和参考。
今后,本研究要在以下几个方面继续深入展开：(1)以往有关乐观偏差的研究多是在群体水平上对乐观偏差的考察。虽然由于个体差异和个体的复杂性,对个体水平的乐观偏差考察有相当难度,但今后的研究应该对个体水平上的乐观偏差进行探讨。(2)尽管多数研究都认为乐观偏差是一个普遍现象,但也有研究结果表明人们在某些事件上反而存在悲观偏差倾向。有研究者提出乐观偏差和悲观偏差可能是一个连续体的两端,因此,将来的研究应该把乐观偏差和悲观偏差联合起来共同进行探讨。(3)本研究仅在班级这种组织情境中探讨了组织认同对乐观偏差的影响。今后的研究应该在其他类型的组织情境中对乐观偏差进行研究。(4)对心理现象的神经机制的研究是目前心理学研究中的一个热点,将来的研究也应该进行考察乐观偏差的神经机制的探讨。
Optimism bias is the tendency for individuals to believe that his or her chances of experiencing a positive event are higher or a negative event are lower than that of one's peers. The research classifies optimism bias into two types, according to its form of expression. That is type I of optimism bias toward oneself——to themselves, people are more likely to overestimate the probability of positive events, and type II of optimism bias toward others——to others, people are more likely to overestimate the probability of negative events. The optimism bias is a general phenomenon to people in many cases, it has both positive and negative effects.
Optimism bias can help people to maintain their mental health by keeping high self-esteem and decreasing anxiety, to attain better performances and successes by stimulating and sustaining higher achievement motivation. And by underestimating probability of negative events, optimism bias will result in people's more dangerous actions, less precautions against adverse. Therefore, we should utilize positive effects of optimistic bias to make people have optimistic views of world and feel happy and weaken the negative effects on people.
By reviewing the research documentary of domestic and foreign studies on optimism bias, we found that there are only few empirical studies in China. While researchers abroad usually used self-report scale to investigate explicit individual's optimistic bias on different events. Therefore, other methods such as implicit measure should be used in research to explore implicit optimistic bias and complement single method. Secondly, most researches are correlation research and the result cannot make causal inference. Moreover, event features were not be control strictly in some researches. Therefore, they might interact with other factors and influence optimistic bias jointly. Thirdly, there were few researches to explore how organization allegiance influences optimistic bias of members in temporary organization. From the above, our research firstly investigates the undergraduates'state of optimism bias. After that by utilizing IAT and GNAT, the research explores the implicit features of optimism bias. At last, using experimental method, the research examines the factors which can affect optimism bias in area of health and organization. Specifically, this research is composed of four studies.
In the first study, the research investigates the optimism bias of undergraduates using method of questionnaire survey. The second study is the focus among these our studies. IAT and GNAT is used to examine the implicit features of optimism bias, that is whether optimism bias has automatic and unconscious characters or not. In third study, the research investigates explores how controllability and seriousness of events affect optimism bias in area of health. The forth study explores how organizational identity and different methods affect optimism bias in organization. The main conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, optimism bias on life events is widespread among undergraduates, and it has two types. The first one is type I of optimism bias toward oneself——people believe that positive events are more likely to happen to them, and type II of optimism bias toward others——people believe that negative events are more likely to happen to others. Optmisitic bias has no significant difference between male and female. Dispositional optimism has influence on optimism bias. Optimists have higher optimism bias than pessimists on both positive and negative events.
Secondly, it manifests that optimism bias has automatic and unconscious feature in program of IAT and GNAT.
Thirdly, in health condition, controllability and seriousness affect optimism bias significantly. Specifically, participants who think the events are of his control and less serious show more optimism bias.
Fourthly, in organization scenario, organization identity can lead to higher optimism bias of members. However, there is no difference between direct approach and indirect method of measuring optimism bias.
There are several new ideas brought forth by this paper:
a) On the basis of abroad research, the research investigates undergraduates' optimism bias and explores mental mechanism of optimism bias, which supplies the empirical study interiorly.
b)The most important is that the research uses implicit program to examine implicit effect of optimism bias, and the result manifested that optimism bias has automatic and unconscious character. Moreover, the implicit method is a supplement to previous methods of optimism bias.
c) The present research uses experiment to investigate how event features affect optimistic bias and it can supplement and verify previous results from correlation researches..
d) The research explores whether organization identity affects organizational members'judgment about their organization victory or defeat in competition. The result can provide some suggestion in practice.
Finally, this study's future directions are discussed. Future research should further expand in the following areas:
a) Because of complexities of individuals, there are few researches on exploring the individual's optimism bias on individual level. We should pay more attention to this issue though it is difficult.
b) Some results suggested that people show pessimism bias in several events, and researchers proposed that optimism bias and pessimism bias maybe a continuum of ends. Therefore we should combine optimism bias with pessimism bias into one study.
c) Future research should explore optimism bias in other forms of organization situation besides classes.
d) Neural mechanism of psychological phenomena is a hotspot, so we should examine the neural mechanism of optimism bias in future.
在对“乐观偏差”的研究进行文献综述时发现,国内对乐观偏差的实证研究尚不多见,而国外对乐观偏差的研究通常采用自陈量表的方式在外显层面上来考察人们的乐观偏差状况,研究方法较为单一。因此,有必要要采用其他的研究方法,例如内隐测量方法来对乐观偏差进行考察,既是对研究方法的补充,也可以在内隐层面上探讨乐观偏差是否具有内隐的特点。第二,以往对健康情境中有关事件特征对乐观偏差的影响之研究多数是相关研究,相关研究的结果不能做出因果推论。而且相关研究没有对某个事件特征进行严格的控制,因此研究中的事件特征可能与其他因素产生交互作用,一起对乐观偏差产生影响。第三,以往只有较少的研究在临时的虚拟群体中考察了组织成员的组织忠诚对乐观偏差的影响,没有在真正的组织情境中进行研究。
本研究首先在中国文化背景下对大学生的乐观偏差状况进行考察。然后借鉴内隐社会认知的研究范式,采用IAT和GNAT在内隐层面上对乐观偏差进行考察。接着采用实验法分别在健康情境和组织情境中对乐观偏差的影响因素进行实证研究。
具体来说,论文由四个研究组成。
研究一采用问卷调查方法,以大学生为研究对象,调查大学生的乐观偏差状况。研究二是本研究的重点所在,借鉴内隐社会认知研究中常用的IAT和GNAT研究范式,在内隐层面上对乐观偏差进行考察,探讨乐观偏差是否具有自动化、无意识的内隐特点。研究三采用实验法,在健康情境中,研究可控性和严重性两个事件特征对乐观偏差的影响。研究四采用实验法,在组织情境中考察组织认同和不同外显测量方法对乐观偏差的影响。上述研究结果表明：
(1)大学生群体在将来生活事件上普遍存在乐观偏差,具体表现为两种类型：第一种为指向自己的Ⅰ型乐观偏差,即大学生认为积极事件更可能发生在自己身上；第二种为指向他人的Ⅱ型乐观偏差,即大学生认为消极事件更可能发生在他人身上；但乐观偏差在性别上没有差异。气质性乐观对乐观偏差有影响,乐观者在积极事件和消极事件上都比悲观者表现出更大程度的乐观偏差。
(2)IAT和GNAT的研究都表明,乐观偏差具有自动化和无意识的内隐特点。
(3)在健康情境中,可控性和严重性这两个事件特征对乐观偏差有显著影响,表现为事件可控性越大,被试表现出的乐观偏差程度越大；事件严重性越低,被试表现出的乐观偏差程度越大。
(4)在组织情境中,组织认同对乐观偏差有影响,表现为：启动组织成员对组织的认同,会导致其更高程度的乐观偏差；但乐观偏差在直接比较测量和间接比较测量中对没有显著差异。
本研究在以下四个方面具有一定新意：
首先,根据国外学者对乐观偏差的研究,在中国文化背景下,考察了大学生群体的乐观偏差现状,并探讨了产生乐观偏差的心理机制,对国内乐观偏差的实证研究进行了补充。
第二,采用内隐研究范式在内隐层面上对乐观偏差进行了考察。结果发现,乐观偏差具有无意识、自动化的内隐特点。另外,在研究方法上采用内隐测量方法是对以往乐观偏差研究方法单一性的有益补充。
第三,在健康情境中,采用实验法考察了事件特征对乐观偏差的影响,可以对以往的相关研究结果进行验证和相互补充。
第四,以往尚未有研究在真实的组织情境中探讨组织成员的乐观偏差。本研究在真实的组织情境中考察了组织认同对乐观偏差的影响,对组织实践领域能够提供一定的借鉴和参考。
今后,本研究要在以下几个方面继续深入展开：(1)以往有关乐观偏差的研究多是在群体水平上对乐观偏差的考察。虽然由于个体差异和个体的复杂性,对个体水平的乐观偏差考察有相当难度,但今后的研究应该对个体水平上的乐观偏差进行探讨。(2)尽管多数研究都认为乐观偏差是一个普遍现象,但也有研究结果表明人们在某些事件上反而存在悲观偏差倾向。有研究者提出乐观偏差和悲观偏差可能是一个连续体的两端,因此,将来的研究应该把乐观偏差和悲观偏差联合起来共同进行探讨。(3)本研究仅在班级这种组织情境中探讨了组织认同对乐观偏差的影响。今后的研究应该在其他类型的组织情境中对乐观偏差进行研究。(4)对心理现象的神经机制的研究是目前心理学研究中的一个热点,将来的研究也应该进行考察乐观偏差的神经机制的探讨。
Optimism bias is the tendency for individuals to believe that his or her chances of experiencing a positive event are higher or a negative event are lower than that of one's peers. The research classifies optimism bias into two types, according to its form of expression. That is type I of optimism bias toward oneself——to themselves, people are more likely to overestimate the probability of positive events, and type II of optimism bias toward others——to others, people are more likely to overestimate the probability of negative events. The optimism bias is a general phenomenon to people in many cases, it has both positive and negative effects.
Optimism bias can help people to maintain their mental health by keeping high self-esteem and decreasing anxiety, to attain better performances and successes by stimulating and sustaining higher achievement motivation. And by underestimating probability of negative events, optimism bias will result in people's more dangerous actions, less precautions against adverse. Therefore, we should utilize positive effects of optimistic bias to make people have optimistic views of world and feel happy and weaken the negative effects on people.
By reviewing the research documentary of domestic and foreign studies on optimism bias, we found that there are only few empirical studies in China. While researchers abroad usually used self-report scale to investigate explicit individual's optimistic bias on different events. Therefore, other methods such as implicit measure should be used in research to explore implicit optimistic bias and complement single method. Secondly, most researches are correlation research and the result cannot make causal inference. Moreover, event features were not be control strictly in some researches. Therefore, they might interact with other factors and influence optimistic bias jointly. Thirdly, there were few researches to explore how organization allegiance influences optimistic bias of members in temporary organization. From the above, our research firstly investigates the undergraduates'state of optimism bias. After that by utilizing IAT and GNAT, the research explores the implicit features of optimism bias. At last, using experimental method, the research examines the factors which can affect optimism bias in area of health and organization. Specifically, this research is composed of four studies.
In the first study, the research investigates the optimism bias of undergraduates using method of questionnaire survey. The second study is the focus among these our studies. IAT and GNAT is used to examine the implicit features of optimism bias, that is whether optimism bias has automatic and unconscious characters or not. In third study, the research investigates explores how controllability and seriousness of events affect optimism bias in area of health. The forth study explores how organizational identity and different methods affect optimism bias in organization. The main conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, optimism bias on life events is widespread among undergraduates, and it has two types. The first one is type I of optimism bias toward oneself——people believe that positive events are more likely to happen to them, and type II of optimism bias toward others——people believe that negative events are more likely to happen to others. Optmisitic bias has no significant difference between male and female. Dispositional optimism has influence on optimism bias. Optimists have higher optimism bias than pessimists on both positive and negative events.
Secondly, it manifests that optimism bias has automatic and unconscious feature in program of IAT and GNAT.
Thirdly, in health condition, controllability and seriousness affect optimism bias significantly. Specifically, participants who think the events are of his control and less serious show more optimism bias.
Fourthly, in organization scenario, organization identity can lead to higher optimism bias of members. However, there is no difference between direct approach and indirect method of measuring optimism bias.
There are several new ideas brought forth by this paper:
a) On the basis of abroad research, the research investigates undergraduates' optimism bias and explores mental mechanism of optimism bias, which supplies the empirical study interiorly.
b)The most important is that the research uses implicit program to examine implicit effect of optimism bias, and the result manifested that optimism bias has automatic and unconscious character. Moreover, the implicit method is a supplement to previous methods of optimism bias.
c) The present research uses experiment to investigate how event features affect optimistic bias and it can supplement and verify previous results from correlation researches..
d) The research explores whether organization identity affects organizational members'judgment about their organization victory or defeat in competition. The result can provide some suggestion in practice.
Finally, this study's future directions are discussed. Future research should further expand in the following areas:
a) Because of complexities of individuals, there are few researches on exploring the individual's optimism bias on individual level. We should pay more attention to this issue though it is difficult.
b) Some results suggested that people show pessimism bias in several events, and researchers proposed that optimism bias and pessimism bias maybe a continuum of ends. Therefore we should combine optimism bias with pessimism bias into one study.
c) Future research should explore optimism bias in other forms of organization situation besides classes.
d) Neural mechanism of psychological phenomena is a hotspot, so we should examine the neural mechanism of optimism bias in future.
引文
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