复杂机械系统可靠性分配最优分配方法的研究
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摘要
目前,我国大型国有企业都出现了营业额很大,但实际的收益却不高的局面。要想扭转这样的现状,就必须从产品的可靠性做起。在保证产品可靠性的前提下,降低产品成本,提高产品的竞争力,才有助于企业的发展壮大。而我们知道,这个过程就是对产品进行可靠性分配的过程。因此,对产品进行合理的可靠性分配有着非常重要的意义。
可靠性分配初期是一个特殊阶段。由于很多不确定的因素,致使通过不同的可靠性分配方法得到的结果可能会有很大的差异。那么“如何判断哪种可靠性分配方法的结果最符合实际?”是一个值得研究的问题。本文试图解决这个问题,做了如下几个方面的工作：
(1)对可靠性分配进行了深入的研究。阐述了可靠性分配的现状、目的、作用和基本原则注意事项。
(2)对可靠性模糊分配法进行改进。对分配法的因素集、评判集以及综合评判给出了自己的理解和改进。在确定因素权重集部分,提出采用改进的三角形模糊数进行评判,最大程度上减少主观因素造成的误差。
(3)阐述层次分配法的原理。在如何建立一个好的层次结构、如何构造判断矩阵和如何做一致性检验方面做出了自己的分析和定义。并提出标度的衡量准则,对方法的四种标度进行比较分析。
(4)建立一种适用于可靠性分配的费用函数来衡量分配方法的结果。
(5)对航空发动机用可靠性模糊分配法和层次分配法分别进行可靠性分配,利用建立的费用函数对两种分配结果进行比较。得到在费用层面上“最优”的分配结果。
Currently, big of the sales amount of the business enterprise, but not high situation of actual income appeared in most of the business enterprises all.To want to turn round such present condition, we must do it from the credibility of the product.While assurancing the product credibility, lowering the product cost, and raising the competition ability of the product, just contribute to the development of the business enterprise.But we know, this process is just a process of reliability distribution of complicated system. So,it is very important to reliability distribution for a product.
The initial stage of reliability allocation is a special stage. Because of a lot of factor's indetermination, there gets have the very big difference through different reliability allocation method. So" how judge the result of which reliability allocation method match most physically?" is a deserve research of problem. This text tries to resolve this problem, there are some main facts in this research as follows:
(1) Carry on the thorough research to the reliability allocation method. Understood the present condition, purpose and basic principle regulations of reliability allocation method.
(2) Carry on the improvement to the reliability fuzzy allocation method. Give own comprehension and improvement in factor set, judgment set and comprehensive evaluation of reliability fuzzy allocation method. On the part of determination factors weight set, though using improvement triangle fuzzy number to evaluation, reduce the errors caused by subjective factors to the utmost extent.
(3) Describe the principle of AHP. Do own analysis and definition on how build up a good layer result, construct to judge the matrix and did the consistency examination. And put forward the mark degree to measure the standard,the four kinds of marks degree of AHP carry on more analytical.
(4) Built up a kind of expenses function that is applicable to the reliability allocation to measure the result of the allocation method.
(5) Reliability fuzzy allocation method and AHP are used on the aero-engine, comparison the two distribution results by establishment cost function. Get the optimal allocation results on cost level.
可靠性分配初期是一个特殊阶段。由于很多不确定的因素,致使通过不同的可靠性分配方法得到的结果可能会有很大的差异。那么“如何判断哪种可靠性分配方法的结果最符合实际?”是一个值得研究的问题。本文试图解决这个问题,做了如下几个方面的工作：
(1)对可靠性分配进行了深入的研究。阐述了可靠性分配的现状、目的、作用和基本原则注意事项。
(2)对可靠性模糊分配法进行改进。对分配法的因素集、评判集以及综合评判给出了自己的理解和改进。在确定因素权重集部分,提出采用改进的三角形模糊数进行评判,最大程度上减少主观因素造成的误差。
(3)阐述层次分配法的原理。在如何建立一个好的层次结构、如何构造判断矩阵和如何做一致性检验方面做出了自己的分析和定义。并提出标度的衡量准则,对方法的四种标度进行比较分析。
(4)建立一种适用于可靠性分配的费用函数来衡量分配方法的结果。
(5)对航空发动机用可靠性模糊分配法和层次分配法分别进行可靠性分配,利用建立的费用函数对两种分配结果进行比较。得到在费用层面上“最优”的分配结果。
Currently, big of the sales amount of the business enterprise, but not high situation of actual income appeared in most of the business enterprises all.To want to turn round such present condition, we must do it from the credibility of the product.While assurancing the product credibility, lowering the product cost, and raising the competition ability of the product, just contribute to the development of the business enterprise.But we know, this process is just a process of reliability distribution of complicated system. So,it is very important to reliability distribution for a product.
The initial stage of reliability allocation is a special stage. Because of a lot of factor's indetermination, there gets have the very big difference through different reliability allocation method. So" how judge the result of which reliability allocation method match most physically?" is a deserve research of problem. This text tries to resolve this problem, there are some main facts in this research as follows:
(1) Carry on the thorough research to the reliability allocation method. Understood the present condition, purpose and basic principle regulations of reliability allocation method.
(2) Carry on the improvement to the reliability fuzzy allocation method. Give own comprehension and improvement in factor set, judgment set and comprehensive evaluation of reliability fuzzy allocation method. On the part of determination factors weight set, though using improvement triangle fuzzy number to evaluation, reduce the errors caused by subjective factors to the utmost extent.
(3) Describe the principle of AHP. Do own analysis and definition on how build up a good layer result, construct to judge the matrix and did the consistency examination. And put forward the mark degree to measure the standard,the four kinds of marks degree of AHP carry on more analytical.
(4) Built up a kind of expenses function that is applicable to the reliability allocation to measure the result of the allocation method.
(5) Reliability fuzzy allocation method and AHP are used on the aero-engine, comparison the two distribution results by establishment cost function. Get the optimal allocation results on cost level.
引文
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2.疏松佳.最可靠控制系统的综合[J].自动化学报,1980,6(1)：8-16.
3.黄洪钟,唐经世.基于模糊综合评判的机械系统可靠性分配方法[J].工程机械,1996,2：18-21.
4.刘帏信.机械可靠性设计[M].北京：清华大学出版社.1996,302-318.
5. 董聪.系统可靠性分配方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,996,7：36-40.
6.姜悦岭.一种改进的AGREE可靠度分配算法[J].锦州师范学院学报,2001,22(1)：17-21.
7.刘琦,冯静,周经伦.系统可靠性分配的综合因子法[J].模糊系统与数学,2002,16(3)：95-98.
8.刘强,毛舍平.可靠性评分分配法研究[J].水雷战与舰船防护,2004,2：33-37.
9.张科施,李为吉,魏宏艳.一种飞机顶层设计指标最优分配的新方法.中国航空学报,2006,19(3)：203-211.
10.吴晗平.复杂系统的可靠性模型和可靠性分配研究[J].电光与控制,1997,65：5-13.
11.曾天翔.可靠性及维修性工程手册[M].北京：国防工业出版社,1994.
12. Park K S, Fuzzy Apportionment of Systems Reliability [J].IEEE Trans. Reliability, 1987,36(2):129-132.
13. Rao S S, Dhingr A K. Reliability and Redundancy Apportionment Using Crisp and Fuzzy Muli-Objective Optimization Approaches[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,1992,37:253-261.
14. Utkin L V.A Method to Solve Fuzzy Reliability Optimization Problem [J]. Microelectronics and Reliability,1995,35:171-191.
15. Ravi V, Reddy P J, Zimmermann H. Fuzzy Global Optimization of Complex System Reliability [J].IEEE Trans. Fuzzy System,2000,8(3):241-248.
16.国家自然科学基金管理科学学部.管理科学“十五”优先资助领域论证报告[C].http//www.nsfc.gov.cn/nsfc/cen/00/kxb/gl/glkx-lO5content.html,2001.
17. IIASA. Academy carries out influential and pioneering work on significant contemporary issues.httpa/www.amacad.org/projectsliiasa.htm,2004.
18.杨自厚,李宝泽.多指标决策理论与方法[M].沈阳：东北工学院出版社,1989.252.
19. Saaty T. Modeling unstructured decision problems:A theory of analytical hierarchies [C]. Proceedings of the first international conference on mathematical modeling,1977. 69-77.
20. Saaty T. The seven pillars of the analytic hierarchy process [C]. Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Analytic Hierarchy Process, http//www.isahP4.2003.net/menus/about_ahp/Japan_ta.pdf,1999.
21. Hwang C, Yoon K. Multiple attribute decision making methods and applications:A state-of-the-art survey.New York:Springer,1981.
22. Mousseau V, Figueroa J, Naux J. Using assignment examples to infer for ELECTRE TRI method:Some experimental results [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001,130(2):263-275.
23. Macharis C, Springarl J. Brucker K, Verbeke A. PROMETHEE and AHP:The design of operational Synergies in multi-criteria analysis:Strengthening PROMETHEE with ideas of AHP [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2004,153(2):307-317
24. Azibi R, Vanderpooten D. Construction of rule-based assignment models. European Journal of Operational research,2002,138(2):274-293.
25. Salvatore G, Benedetto M, Roman S. Rough sets methodology for sorting problems in presence of multiple attributes and criteria [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2002,138(2):247-259.
26.杨春,李怀祖.一个证据推理模型及其在专家意见中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,21(4)：43-48.
27.杜晓明,于永利.多属性决策的智能化研究[J].兵工学报,1999,20(1)：90-93.
28.于存贵.基于黑板模型的多属性决策模式[J].南京理工大学学报,2000,24(4)：334-337.
29.宋如顺.基于小波神经网络的多属性决策方法[J].计算机工程及应用,2000,36(10)：46-48.
30.宋如顺.基于遗传神经网络的MADM[J]北京理工大学学报,2000,20(1)：65-68.
31.仇春光,刘玉树.基于人工神经网络的多属性决策[J].北京理工大学学报,2000,20(1)：65-68.
32.许树柏.层次分析法原理[M].天津：天津大学出版社,1986.
33. Saaty T. The Analytic Hierarchy Process [M]. McGraw-Hilling, New York,1980.
34.董玉革.机械模糊可靠性设计[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2000.
35.谢未临.模糊综合评价方法的改进[J].中国电力教育.2006年研究综述与技术论坛专刊,220-221.
36.谌红.模糊数学在国民经济中的应用[M].武汉：化中理工大学出版社,1994.
37.黄洪钟.模糊决策方法及其在确定机械系统可靠性指标中的应用研究[J].机械设计与研究.1994,4：2-5.
38.钮晓鸣.带置信因子的模糊综合评判[J].系统工程理论方法应用.1997,6(2)：20-25.
39. Matarazzo B, Munds G. New Approaches for the Comparison of L-R Fuzzy Numbers: ATheoretical and Operational Analysis[J].Fuzzy Sets and Systems,2001,118:407-418.
40.张兴芳,管思瑞,孟广武.区间值模糊综合评判及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2001,21(12)：81-84.
41.赵德孜,温卫东,段成美.基于模糊数的航空发动机可靠性预计模[J].航空动力学报.2004,19(3)：320-325.
42.杨纶标,高英仪.模糊数学原理及应用[M].华南理工大学出版社,2004,3：75-80.
43.赵德孜,温卫东,段成美.基于模糊决策的机械可靠性分配[J].机械科学与技术.2003,7(22)：104-106.
44.邵正宇,鞠远萍,勾频.机械串联系统可靠性加权分配的模糊方法.武汉科技大学学报.2004.27：43-46.
45. Takeda E, Yu P. Assessing priority weights from subsets of pair wise comparisons in multiple criteria optimization problems [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1995,86(2):315-331.
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