航空灾害成因机理与预警系统研究
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摘要
航空运输是现代物流的功能要素之一，是实现“第三个利润源泉”的有效工具，已成为当代社会国民经济发展的重要驱动力量。然而，航空灾害所造成的人身财产损失和无形的危害触目惊心。目前，我国民航的安全形势不容乐观，存在着不少安全漏洞和隐患。
本论文对航空灾害成因机理与预警系统进行研究，旨在预防和矫正航空灾害诱发因素的萌生与发展，改善民航安全管理的科学性和可靠性，进一步降低事故率，减少航空灾害造成的损失，促进民航业的健康持续发展。对于贯彻我国民航“安全第一，预防为主”的方针，应对加入WTO后民航安全面临的严峻挑战，适应民航快速发展对航空安全提出的更高要求，以及促进民航体制改革，具有重要的现实意义。本论文综合运用预警管理理论、安全科学、故障诊断理论、复杂科学等相关学科的理论和方法，将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合，具有重要的研究价值。全文由六大部分组成：
第一部分说明了课题的来源，阐明了航空灾害的内涵和特征，明确了研究目标和研究意义，在国内外相关研究综述的基础上，确定研究内容和方法。
第二部分着重进行民航安全现状的实证研究。针对中国民航的行业安全管理，分别对我国航空公司和机场安全现状进行了问卷调查和实证分析，对我国空中交通管制现状进行了调查分析。通过对国内外民航事故进行统计及横向对比，首次发现了航空灾害的一些规律性。
第三部分主要进行航空灾害成因机理分析。系统分析航空灾害的致灾因素，包括人为致灾因素、飞机和设备致灾因素、环境致灾因素以及组织管理致灾因素。探索了航空灾害的成因分析模型，首次提出了基于贝叶斯网络的成因机理分析模型。
第四部分探讨了航空灾害预警系统的原理。阐明了预警系统的基本原理，论述了预警系统的运转模型和工作内容，以及预警方法的设计原理。
第五部分探讨了航空灾害预警系统的运行机制。首次提出了航空灾害预警系统的组织方式，建立预警管理的责任体系和监控体系，设计了预警系统的工作流程。
武汉理工大学博士学位论文
第六部分重点论述了航空灾害预警系统的技术方法。首次构建了航空灾
害预警指标体系，探讨了预警指标值的测定，通过实例对预警指标进行模糊
综合评价，初步设计了预警信号的输出方式。运用指数平滑法和灰色预测法
探讨了飞行品质监控的预警方法;计算结果表明，可采用指数平滑法预测超
限事件的发生趋势，及时发现民航事故的早期征兆;探讨了基于人工神经网
络的飞机故障诊断预警方法。
The conveyance by air is functionally one of the modern logistics and is also the effective means for the achievement of "the third profit source". It has become the important driving power for the development of national economy in modern society. However, the direct loss as well as the invisible harm caused by aviation calamity is shocking by the sight. The security situation of the civil aviation in China is far beyond being optimistic since there are lots of loopholes and hidden dangers in security.
The objective of the thesis is to analyze formation mechanism of aviation calamity and to study the early warning system so as to prevent the emergence of accident-inducing elements and control the further development of them, to improve the aviation security management to be scientific and reliable, to decrease the rate of accidents and loss, and finally to promote the healthy and continuous development of the civil aviation. As the demand for the aviation security becomes higher with the rapid development of civil aviation and the need of system innovation, the practical significance of the thesis is obvious on the background of both the policy "Safety first as well as prevention" being carrying out and the challenge being faced after the China's entrance of WTO. With the theories & methods of early warning management, safety science, fault diagnoses and complexity science etc. being utilized, the thesis combines the front of several subjects and its methodology is valuable. It contains six parts.
The first part introduces the origin of this study, the connotation and character of the aviation calamity, the study objective and its significance. A review of the literature concerning relevant theories and the study content and methods of the thesis is also included
Next, the demonstration study and statistic analysis on the actuality of the civil aviation safety management is presented. Aiming at Chinese civil aviation
industrial safety management, the actuality of airlines and airports safety management are studied through questionnaire and demonstration analysis and the status of china's air traffic control is analyzed after investigation. With the civil aviation accidents both worldwide and in China being statistically analyzed and compared, some common phenomenon are found out.
The mechanism of the cause of aviation calamity is analyzed in the third part, in which the cause factors of calamity include the human factors, plane factors, facility factors, environment factors and organization management factors are included systematically. Considering effects of uncertainties, a model of Bayesian network is presented and first used for reasoning the causes of aviation calamity.
In the following forth part, the principle of aviation calamity early warning system is discussed, which involve the basic theory, the operation model, the work methods of this system and the design principle of it.
Then in the fifth part the operating mechanism of the aviation calamity early warning system is discussed, in which the organization formula of the system is put forward for the first time, including how to build the responsibility structure of early warning management, how to design the operation flow of early warning system and how to construct the supervising system early warning management etc.
The contribution of the six part of the thesis presents the technical methods of the aviation early warning management system, in which the early warning index system of the aviation calamity is initially built up. The measurement of early warning index value using Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is demonstrated through an example and the model output of early warning signal is designed primarily. The early warning approach for Civil Aviation Flight Character Surveillance is discussed. The calculation result is that exponential smoothing is suitable to forecast the trend exceed the limits so as to find the early signs of civil aviation accidents or calamity. The early warning method of the plane failure diagnosis based on the ANN
本论文对航空灾害成因机理与预警系统进行研究，旨在预防和矫正航空灾害诱发因素的萌生与发展，改善民航安全管理的科学性和可靠性，进一步降低事故率，减少航空灾害造成的损失，促进民航业的健康持续发展。对于贯彻我国民航“安全第一，预防为主”的方针，应对加入WTO后民航安全面临的严峻挑战，适应民航快速发展对航空安全提出的更高要求，以及促进民航体制改革，具有重要的现实意义。本论文综合运用预警管理理论、安全科学、故障诊断理论、复杂科学等相关学科的理论和方法，将多学科的学术前沿内容有机地交叉融合，具有重要的研究价值。全文由六大部分组成：
第一部分说明了课题的来源，阐明了航空灾害的内涵和特征，明确了研究目标和研究意义，在国内外相关研究综述的基础上，确定研究内容和方法。
第二部分着重进行民航安全现状的实证研究。针对中国民航的行业安全管理，分别对我国航空公司和机场安全现状进行了问卷调查和实证分析，对我国空中交通管制现状进行了调查分析。通过对国内外民航事故进行统计及横向对比，首次发现了航空灾害的一些规律性。
第三部分主要进行航空灾害成因机理分析。系统分析航空灾害的致灾因素，包括人为致灾因素、飞机和设备致灾因素、环境致灾因素以及组织管理致灾因素。探索了航空灾害的成因分析模型，首次提出了基于贝叶斯网络的成因机理分析模型。
第四部分探讨了航空灾害预警系统的原理。阐明了预警系统的基本原理，论述了预警系统的运转模型和工作内容，以及预警方法的设计原理。
第五部分探讨了航空灾害预警系统的运行机制。首次提出了航空灾害预警系统的组织方式，建立预警管理的责任体系和监控体系，设计了预警系统的工作流程。
武汉理工大学博士学位论文
第六部分重点论述了航空灾害预警系统的技术方法。首次构建了航空灾
害预警指标体系，探讨了预警指标值的测定，通过实例对预警指标进行模糊
综合评价，初步设计了预警信号的输出方式。运用指数平滑法和灰色预测法
探讨了飞行品质监控的预警方法;计算结果表明，可采用指数平滑法预测超
限事件的发生趋势，及时发现民航事故的早期征兆;探讨了基于人工神经网
络的飞机故障诊断预警方法。
The conveyance by air is functionally one of the modern logistics and is also the effective means for the achievement of "the third profit source". It has become the important driving power for the development of national economy in modern society. However, the direct loss as well as the invisible harm caused by aviation calamity is shocking by the sight. The security situation of the civil aviation in China is far beyond being optimistic since there are lots of loopholes and hidden dangers in security.
The objective of the thesis is to analyze formation mechanism of aviation calamity and to study the early warning system so as to prevent the emergence of accident-inducing elements and control the further development of them, to improve the aviation security management to be scientific and reliable, to decrease the rate of accidents and loss, and finally to promote the healthy and continuous development of the civil aviation. As the demand for the aviation security becomes higher with the rapid development of civil aviation and the need of system innovation, the practical significance of the thesis is obvious on the background of both the policy "Safety first as well as prevention" being carrying out and the challenge being faced after the China's entrance of WTO. With the theories & methods of early warning management, safety science, fault diagnoses and complexity science etc. being utilized, the thesis combines the front of several subjects and its methodology is valuable. It contains six parts.
The first part introduces the origin of this study, the connotation and character of the aviation calamity, the study objective and its significance. A review of the literature concerning relevant theories and the study content and methods of the thesis is also included
Next, the demonstration study and statistic analysis on the actuality of the civil aviation safety management is presented. Aiming at Chinese civil aviation
industrial safety management, the actuality of airlines and airports safety management are studied through questionnaire and demonstration analysis and the status of china's air traffic control is analyzed after investigation. With the civil aviation accidents both worldwide and in China being statistically analyzed and compared, some common phenomenon are found out.
The mechanism of the cause of aviation calamity is analyzed in the third part, in which the cause factors of calamity include the human factors, plane factors, facility factors, environment factors and organization management factors are included systematically. Considering effects of uncertainties, a model of Bayesian network is presented and first used for reasoning the causes of aviation calamity.
In the following forth part, the principle of aviation calamity early warning system is discussed, which involve the basic theory, the operation model, the work methods of this system and the design principle of it.
Then in the fifth part the operating mechanism of the aviation calamity early warning system is discussed, in which the organization formula of the system is put forward for the first time, including how to build the responsibility structure of early warning management, how to design the operation flow of early warning system and how to construct the supervising system early warning management etc.
The contribution of the six part of the thesis presents the technical methods of the aviation early warning management system, in which the early warning index system of the aviation calamity is initially built up. The measurement of early warning index value using Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is demonstrated through an example and the model output of early warning signal is designed primarily. The early warning approach for Civil Aviation Flight Character Surveillance is discussed. The calculation result is that exponential smoothing is suitable to forecast the trend exceed the limits so as to find the early signs of civil aviation accidents or calamity. The early warning method of the plane failure diagnosis based on the ANN
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