青岛港水域通航安全及效率的研究
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摘要
随着世界各国经济大规模的发展,船舶科技的进步,船舶日益大型化、快速化,船舶在港口航行会遇率增大,港口交通变得越来越拥挤,船舶交通安全风险迅速增大,导致水域交通不安全因素不断增大。为了预防和减少交通事故,保障海上交通安全,提高通航效率,防止环境污染,如何增进海上交通安全与效率是值得重视的课题。
本文运用水上交通安全管理研究的整体思路和海上交通工程学的基本原理,以数理统计和排队论的方法科学的研究和分析港口中船舶的航行、待泊和进出港船舶的顺序的问题;以泊松流拟合船舶到达流,以一阶爱尔朗分布衡量港口服务时间和靠泊时间,系统分析港口阻塞原因及其对船舶队长的影响;采用交通流统计、安全指数评估方法以及理论计算与问卷调查相结合的方法,对青岛港水域的船舶交通安全性进行了定量化研究;为避免船舶在港口水域因为等候进出造成的拥挤导致碰撞,交管中心对于到达船舶、等待进港及出港船舶基于航道安全必须做出适当的排序,既可解决通航安全亦可达到通航效率,本研究结合船舶通行安全有关的资料,以青岛港水域为例,运用层次分析法对船舶权重进行分析,兼顾通航安全与效率,通过验证确定其实用性,为解决进出港排序问题的研究奠定基础,以期能增进港口水域的交通管理功能的进一步发展。
本研究的完成,为提高青岛港通航管理提供科学合理的决策依据,同时丰富了海上交通安全领域的研究体系,补充了我国海上通航安全和效率方面的不足,本文对青岛港口和锚地的规划也有一定的理论和现实意义。
With fast development of the world's economy,as well as the progress of science and technology of ship,the ship becomes increasingly large.scaled and rapid;as a result, the rate of ships meeting in port increases,the traffic in the port is becoming increasingly crowded,and the safety risk of ship increases rapidly,leads to unsafe factors increase on water.In order to prevent and reduce traffic accidents,to ensure the safety of marine traffic,to improve the traffic efficiency,to protect the environment from polluting,how to improve navigation safety and efficiency is an important issue.
This paper studies the overall outlook of water traffic safety at sea and the basic principles of traffic engineering,using mathematical statistics and the methods of queuing theory to research and analyze scientifically the issue of the order according to which the ship's navigation,mooring,entering and leaving in the port;to ship fitting Poisson arrival stream flow to the first.order Erlang distribution of port services to measure time and the berthing time and the reasons for systematic analysis of port blocking and the effects on the captain of the ship;the use of traffic flow statistics, assessment methods,as well as safety index calculation with a combination of survey methods,Safety Harbor waters of the ship conducted a quantitative research;in order to avoid the waters of the ship in port because of congestion caused by waiting for access to lead to collisions,traffic control center for the arrival of the ship,waiting for clearance to enter port and ship security must be based on the channel to make the appropriate sort,it will resolve the traffic safety of navigation efficiency can be achieved,this study combined with the ship traffic safety.related information to the waters of Qingdao,Hong Kong as an example,the use of analytic hierarchy process to analyze the weight of the ship,taking into account navigation safety and efficiency, through the validation to determine their relevance,in order to address the issue of entry and exit to sort lay the foundation for the study with a view to enhance the port waters of the traffic management capabilities to further develop.
The completion of this study,in order to improve the management of Qingdao port navigation to provide a scientific basis for rational decision.making,at the same time enriching the research in the field of maritime safety system,added of China's maritime navigation safety and efficiency of the shortcomings of this article and the anchorage of the port of Qingdao is also planning a theoretical and practical significance.
本文运用水上交通安全管理研究的整体思路和海上交通工程学的基本原理,以数理统计和排队论的方法科学的研究和分析港口中船舶的航行、待泊和进出港船舶的顺序的问题;以泊松流拟合船舶到达流,以一阶爱尔朗分布衡量港口服务时间和靠泊时间,系统分析港口阻塞原因及其对船舶队长的影响;采用交通流统计、安全指数评估方法以及理论计算与问卷调查相结合的方法,对青岛港水域的船舶交通安全性进行了定量化研究;为避免船舶在港口水域因为等候进出造成的拥挤导致碰撞,交管中心对于到达船舶、等待进港及出港船舶基于航道安全必须做出适当的排序,既可解决通航安全亦可达到通航效率,本研究结合船舶通行安全有关的资料,以青岛港水域为例,运用层次分析法对船舶权重进行分析,兼顾通航安全与效率,通过验证确定其实用性,为解决进出港排序问题的研究奠定基础,以期能增进港口水域的交通管理功能的进一步发展。
本研究的完成,为提高青岛港通航管理提供科学合理的决策依据,同时丰富了海上交通安全领域的研究体系,补充了我国海上通航安全和效率方面的不足,本文对青岛港口和锚地的规划也有一定的理论和现实意义。
With fast development of the world's economy,as well as the progress of science and technology of ship,the ship becomes increasingly large.scaled and rapid;as a result, the rate of ships meeting in port increases,the traffic in the port is becoming increasingly crowded,and the safety risk of ship increases rapidly,leads to unsafe factors increase on water.In order to prevent and reduce traffic accidents,to ensure the safety of marine traffic,to improve the traffic efficiency,to protect the environment from polluting,how to improve navigation safety and efficiency is an important issue.
This paper studies the overall outlook of water traffic safety at sea and the basic principles of traffic engineering,using mathematical statistics and the methods of queuing theory to research and analyze scientifically the issue of the order according to which the ship's navigation,mooring,entering and leaving in the port;to ship fitting Poisson arrival stream flow to the first.order Erlang distribution of port services to measure time and the berthing time and the reasons for systematic analysis of port blocking and the effects on the captain of the ship;the use of traffic flow statistics, assessment methods,as well as safety index calculation with a combination of survey methods,Safety Harbor waters of the ship conducted a quantitative research;in order to avoid the waters of the ship in port because of congestion caused by waiting for access to lead to collisions,traffic control center for the arrival of the ship,waiting for clearance to enter port and ship security must be based on the channel to make the appropriate sort,it will resolve the traffic safety of navigation efficiency can be achieved,this study combined with the ship traffic safety.related information to the waters of Qingdao,Hong Kong as an example,the use of analytic hierarchy process to analyze the weight of the ship,taking into account navigation safety and efficiency, through the validation to determine their relevance,in order to address the issue of entry and exit to sort lay the foundation for the study with a view to enhance the port waters of the traffic management capabilities to further develop.
The completion of this study,in order to improve the management of Qingdao port navigation to provide a scientific basis for rational decision.making,at the same time enriching the research in the field of maritime safety system,added of China's maritime navigation safety and efficiency of the shortcomings of this article and the anchorage of the port of Qingdao is also planning a theoretical and practical significance.
引文
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[3]Stephenrce WanhillFurthur Analysis of Optimum Size Seaport.Journal of Waterweays Habours Coastal Engineering Division,1974.
[4]E.D.Edmond and R.P.Maggs,How useful are queue models in port investment decisions for Container berths[J].Journal of the Opertional Research society,1978,29(8).
[5]郭禹.航海学[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,1999.
[6]陈家辉.航海气象学与海洋学[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,2000.
[7]马会,吴兆麟.港口航道水域操船环境危险度的评价[J].大连:大连海事大学学报.1998.
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[9]陈伟炯.船舶安全与管理[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,1998.
[10]马会.港口水域操船环境危险度的综合评价[D].大连:大连海事大学,1998.
[11]杨翔.船舶交通流量预测方法研究.大连海事大学,2006.
[12]张大恒.港口通航环境安全综合评价系统及实现[D].大连:大连海事大学载运工具运用工程,2007.
[13]L.R leinrock.The M/G/1 Queue,Queue Syotern VOL.Computer Application.
[14]唐应辉,唐小我.排队论.排队基础与分析技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[15]刘敬贤,李云斌.天津港主航道船舶到达规律的统计分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2008,32(2):351.353.
[16]陆凤山.排队论及其应用.长沙:湖南科学技术出版社,1984.[11].
[17]卞艺杰.航道通过能力研究.水运工程,2000(8).
[18]井上欣三,臼井英夫.Reliabiliy Analysis On Dragging Anchor of Sail Equipped Motor Vessel.日本航海学会论文集第86号.
[19]臼井英夫,井上欣三.A Method to Estimate Available Number of Anchorage.日本航海学会论文集第101号.
[20]E.M.Goodwin.Determination of Ship Domain Size Proceedings of International Conference on Mathematical Aspects of Marine Traffic,London:Academic Press,1977.
[21]叶志民.厦门湾锚地规划.水运管理.2005,11.
[22]徐利斌.舟山港锚地规划研究.2005,10.
[23]朱军.锚泊船之间距离概率分布模型的研究.大连海事大学学报.1999,2.
[24]S.N.Nicolaou.Berth planning by evaluation of congestion coast.Journal of Waterways habours,1967.
[25]Bangladesh Port System Management Development Project:Master Plan.And fade Facilitation Study,Vol.Ⅱ.
[26]罗荣桂.排队模型及其应用.华中理工大学出版社,1990.
[27]工藤和男.A Practical Appoach to The Averge Waiting Time of M/G/S Type Queueing Models.港湾技术研究所报告,1972.
[28]A.K.M.Solayman Hoque.Berthing Problem of Ships in Chittagong Port and Proposal for its Solution.Journal of Mechanical Engineering,vol.ME37,June.2007
[29]Frankel,Ernst G..Port Planning and Development.New York:John Wiley &Sons(2007).
[30]Shi Guang.Ping,Feng Xian.Lin.Research on Evaluation of Benefit and Risk Assement of Port VTS,2004 VTS Symposium,Hong Kong 2004.
[31]Proceedings of International Sympsium on Vessel Traffic service,HongKong,2004.
[32]Elisabeth M.Goodwin.Marine Encounter Rates.Journal of Navigation,1989.
[33]大连海事大学,山东海事局联合课题组.青岛港水域船舶定线制研究[R].2006.
[34]中华人民共和国交通运输部.中华人民共和国航道管理条例.国发[1998]31号.
[35]中国港口,青岛港.
[36]鲁子爱.港口服务系统仿真与港口规模优化研究.河海大学,博士论文.
[37]刘敬贤,韩晓宝,易湘平.基于排队论的受限航道通过能力计算.中国航海,2008(9).
[38]交通部规划研究院.青岛港总体规划.2005,12.
[39]何易培.锚地安全容量数量研究报告.2007.
[40]赵春阳.大连港航道锚地功能改善的研究:(硕士论文).大连:大连海事大学,2004.
[41]付广.大麦屿航线及锚地规划的研究:(硕士论文).大连:大连海事大学,2007.
[42]张军.宁波港区锚地设置发展规划及锚地规划相关问题的探讨:(硕士论文).大连:大连海事大学,2004.
[43]胡云平.宁波水域港口锚地规划与优化:(硕士论文).上海:上海海事大学,2004.
[44]http://www.chinaports.com.cn/ports/news.asp?id=43&news_Id=7196.
[45]柳枝.青岛市港群布局研究[D].中国海洋大学,2005.
[46]洪承礼.港口规划与布置.北京:人民交通出版社,1999.
[47]肖青.港口规划[M].大连:大连海事大学出版社,1998.
[48]杨兴晏.海港船舶到港规律浅析.港口技术,1986(1).
[49]刘义发,郭创豪.最佳泊位利用率的计算方法[J].珠江水运,2006,(09)
[50]桂劲松,周茂源.用排队论方法确定渔港卸鱼码头最优泊位利用率[J].大连大学学报,1999,(06).
[51]唐臣,宋向群,郭子坚.基于系统仿真的集装箱码头最优泊位数研究.第六届交通运输领域国际学术会议,2006.
[52]Pasqule Lerminal and Rina M.Mazza.Berth planning and resources optimization at a container terminal via discrete event simulation.Europe Journal of Operational Research,2001.
[53]赵智邦,江印庭,用排队论推算港口最佳泊位数.水运工程,1982(2).
[54]宣敏明.利用乘潮水位航道的通过能力计算.中国机械工程,2000,11.
[55]周焕中.长江口深水航道进口船舶筛选和排序的研究[D).上海海事大学硕士研究生论文,2004.
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