基于风险的舰船火灾爆炸评估方法研究
|
摘要
火灾、爆炸是舰船安全的主要威胁之一。随着科技的发展,舰船趋向大型化、自动化、高速化,火灾荷载构成越来越复杂,导致各种类型的舰船火灾、爆炸事故频发。舰船火灾爆炸事故是目前国内外研究的热点之一。相对于民船,军船发生火灾、爆炸的危险性更大,但我国舰船防火防爆研究基础还比较薄弱,目前研究基本局限于火灾的探测设备、预报方法和扑救措施,没有专门的机构进行系统而深入的全面研究。在用的舰船防火防爆的规范等,基本是在民船、前苏联或美国的相关规范资料的基础上建立起来的,有些方面已不太适应当前舰船防火抗爆的要求。
本文收集了大量舰船事故报道资料,论述了舰船火灾爆炸事故的原因及其危害、研究了基于风险的舰船火灾爆炸风险评估和危险源辨识方法;利用综合模糊评判法,对舰船舱壁火灾爆炸的完整性进行风险分析;通过研究舰船火灾爆炸的规律,深入探讨了系统的舰船火灾爆炸风险评估方法,以及如何定量地确立舰船火灾爆炸的风险接受准则的思路,并指出了针对该类事故今后的研究方向。本文为有效控制舰船在实际运行和建造中的火灾爆炸事故以及危机处理的规范制定提供了一定参考。
本文主要研究工作如下:
1、归纳讨论了目前基于风险的舰船火灾、爆炸风险评估的一般方法。对如何进行舰船火灾、爆炸事故的危险源辨识进行了分析,并对该类事故危险源进行了归类。提出了从风险的角度评估并减少舰船火灾、爆炸事故的有益建议。
2、通过大量舰船火灾爆炸事故的搜集和整理,根据火灾爆炸事故的原始资料,分析了导致火灾爆炸事故的基本因素,建立了舰船火灾爆炸事故的故障树,定量和定性地分析了各危险因素的等级,给出了安全评价的建议和分析,为制定相应的预防措施提供用于决策的参考依据。
3、应用模糊数学理论对舰船舱壁及甲板的耐火完整性进行了模糊综合评判,探讨了舰船耐火完整性在遭受多种武器一次命中以及多次命中下的风险评估模型,并以国外某型护卫舰为例,通过对A-60级耐火分隔的模糊评估分析,得出了耐火完整性的等级指标。
4、采用风险辨识—风险评价—风险控制的分析方法,对舰船火灾爆炸危险源进行了分类讨论和辨识,最后达到对舰船整体火灾爆炸危险性进行评估的目的。
5、从个人、社会和环境三个角度探讨了定量确定舰船火灾爆炸风险接受准则的方法,指出目前舰船火灾爆炸风险接受准则研究所应解决的关键问题以及研究发展方向。
Fire and explosion accidents are the two main threats of war ship safety. Compared to civilian ships, war ships have higher risk. With development of science and technology, the trend to build bigger, faster and more automatic ship leads to more complicated fire load composition, which results in more and more ship’s fire and explosion accidents. Consequently, the research of fire and explosion is always the hotspot. The basic research on anti-fire and anti-explosion of ships in our country is very weak, fundamentally restricted in exploring equipment, forecast methods, and control measures. There is no special department to proceed overall and deep research. Most of the criteria of anti-fire and anti-explosion are founded on the material of civilian ships, Soviet and the United States. Through summarizing the cause and harm of fire and explosion accidents, putting forward the method of how to do risk evaluation and hazards identification, using fuzzy evaluation to analyze fire-resistant compartmentation, establishing the risk acceptance criteria, and analyzing the rule of such accidents, this thesis provides systematic theory of ship’s fire and explosion risk evaluation, valuable advice on how to effectively control the source of accidents and handle the crisis in the real building and operation, and future research direction.
The main research content and innovations are as follows:
1. Discusses and summarizes the risk evaluation methods of ship’s fire and explosion accidents. It also analyzes the hazard identification of that, and classifies the hazard of such accidents. Finally, it puts forward some advice on risk evaluation and reduction of such accidents, and points out the research direction.
2. Based on a large collection and arrangement of ship's fire and explosion accidents, this paper analyzes the basic factors which result in these accidents. And sets up the ship’s fire and explosion accident’s fault tree, and then uses it to qualitatively and quantificationally analyze the rank of various dangerous factors. At last it gives some suggestion on the safety evaluation of ship’s fire and explosion accident, which provides decisive reference for ship to take precautions.
3. Makes a general evaluation of fire-resistant integrality of war ship’s bulkhead and deck by fuzzy mathematics theory and discusses fuzzy evaluation model of war ship’s fire-resistant compartmentation under the single attack and repetitious attack of multi weapon. It gets the fire-resistant integrality level through fuzzy evaluation on the example of the A-60 fire-resistant compartmentation.
4.Uses risk identification—risk evaluation—risk control method to identify various hazard sources of fire and explosion accidents through the FTA method. And attains the goal of whole war ship’s risk evaluation.
5. Puts forward the method of establishment for risk acceptance criteria suitable to our national situation from angles of individual, society and environment. And points out some problems to be solved and the future development direction of risk acceptance criteria research for ship’s fire and explosion accidents.
本文收集了大量舰船事故报道资料,论述了舰船火灾爆炸事故的原因及其危害、研究了基于风险的舰船火灾爆炸风险评估和危险源辨识方法;利用综合模糊评判法,对舰船舱壁火灾爆炸的完整性进行风险分析;通过研究舰船火灾爆炸的规律,深入探讨了系统的舰船火灾爆炸风险评估方法,以及如何定量地确立舰船火灾爆炸的风险接受准则的思路,并指出了针对该类事故今后的研究方向。本文为有效控制舰船在实际运行和建造中的火灾爆炸事故以及危机处理的规范制定提供了一定参考。
本文主要研究工作如下:
1、归纳讨论了目前基于风险的舰船火灾、爆炸风险评估的一般方法。对如何进行舰船火灾、爆炸事故的危险源辨识进行了分析,并对该类事故危险源进行了归类。提出了从风险的角度评估并减少舰船火灾、爆炸事故的有益建议。
2、通过大量舰船火灾爆炸事故的搜集和整理,根据火灾爆炸事故的原始资料,分析了导致火灾爆炸事故的基本因素,建立了舰船火灾爆炸事故的故障树,定量和定性地分析了各危险因素的等级,给出了安全评价的建议和分析,为制定相应的预防措施提供用于决策的参考依据。
3、应用模糊数学理论对舰船舱壁及甲板的耐火完整性进行了模糊综合评判,探讨了舰船耐火完整性在遭受多种武器一次命中以及多次命中下的风险评估模型,并以国外某型护卫舰为例,通过对A-60级耐火分隔的模糊评估分析,得出了耐火完整性的等级指标。
4、采用风险辨识—风险评价—风险控制的分析方法,对舰船火灾爆炸危险源进行了分类讨论和辨识,最后达到对舰船整体火灾爆炸危险性进行评估的目的。
5、从个人、社会和环境三个角度探讨了定量确定舰船火灾爆炸风险接受准则的方法,指出目前舰船火灾爆炸风险接受准则研究所应解决的关键问题以及研究发展方向。
Fire and explosion accidents are the two main threats of war ship safety. Compared to civilian ships, war ships have higher risk. With development of science and technology, the trend to build bigger, faster and more automatic ship leads to more complicated fire load composition, which results in more and more ship’s fire and explosion accidents. Consequently, the research of fire and explosion is always the hotspot. The basic research on anti-fire and anti-explosion of ships in our country is very weak, fundamentally restricted in exploring equipment, forecast methods, and control measures. There is no special department to proceed overall and deep research. Most of the criteria of anti-fire and anti-explosion are founded on the material of civilian ships, Soviet and the United States. Through summarizing the cause and harm of fire and explosion accidents, putting forward the method of how to do risk evaluation and hazards identification, using fuzzy evaluation to analyze fire-resistant compartmentation, establishing the risk acceptance criteria, and analyzing the rule of such accidents, this thesis provides systematic theory of ship’s fire and explosion risk evaluation, valuable advice on how to effectively control the source of accidents and handle the crisis in the real building and operation, and future research direction.
The main research content and innovations are as follows:
1. Discusses and summarizes the risk evaluation methods of ship’s fire and explosion accidents. It also analyzes the hazard identification of that, and classifies the hazard of such accidents. Finally, it puts forward some advice on risk evaluation and reduction of such accidents, and points out the research direction.
2. Based on a large collection and arrangement of ship's fire and explosion accidents, this paper analyzes the basic factors which result in these accidents. And sets up the ship’s fire and explosion accident’s fault tree, and then uses it to qualitatively and quantificationally analyze the rank of various dangerous factors. At last it gives some suggestion on the safety evaluation of ship’s fire and explosion accident, which provides decisive reference for ship to take precautions.
3. Makes a general evaluation of fire-resistant integrality of war ship’s bulkhead and deck by fuzzy mathematics theory and discusses fuzzy evaluation model of war ship’s fire-resistant compartmentation under the single attack and repetitious attack of multi weapon. It gets the fire-resistant integrality level through fuzzy evaluation on the example of the A-60 fire-resistant compartmentation.
4.Uses risk identification—risk evaluation—risk control method to identify various hazard sources of fire and explosion accidents through the FTA method. And attains the goal of whole war ship’s risk evaluation.
5. Puts forward the method of establishment for risk acceptance criteria suitable to our national situation from angles of individual, society and environment. And points out some problems to be solved and the future development direction of risk acceptance criteria research for ship’s fire and explosion accidents.
引文
[1]. 孟庆毓,肖熙. 舰船结构风险评估(J). 上海交通大学学报,1998, 32(11): 105 -108.
[2]. 管光东,周元和. 潜艇·事故·舰船破损[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社,1997.
[3]. 吴德铭,李守仁,王善等. 舰船产品可靠性工程可靠性设计[M]. 哈尔滨工程 大学出版社,1995年.
[4]. 易宏,张祖卫等. 船舶可靠性工程导论[M]. 国防工业出版社,1995年.
[5]. 徐维新,秦英孝. 可靠性工程[M]. 电子工业出版社,1988.
[6]. 李兹刚. 可靠性设计手册[M]. 中国造船工程学会电子设备学术委员会,1982.
[7]. 郭余庆,王岩. 系统可靠性理论及应用[M]. 煤炭工业出版社, 1991.
[8]. 盐见弘. 可靠性与维修性[M]. 北京:机械工业出版社,1987.
[9]. 章国栋等. 系统可靠性与维修性的分析与设计[M]. 北京:航空航天大学出版 社,1990.
[10]. Reed, M .D .Fleming, J.W .Williams, B .A .Sheinson, R. S. Chattaway, A,Laboratory Evaluation of bicarbonate Powders as Fire Suppressants [R]. Navy Technology Center f or Safety and Survivability, A DA379699/XAB, 1997.
[11]. Williams, F. W. Back, G. G,Post-Flashover Fires in Simulated Ship board Cpartments-Phase3 .Venting of Large Ship board Fires[R]. Naval Research Lab, Rept no .N R L /M R/6180-93-7338, 9 Jun93.
[12]. Scheffey, J. L .Toomey, T.A, Post-Flashover fires in Ship board Compartments Aboard ex –USS SHADWELL.P hase4 .Impact of Navy Fire Insulation[R]. Naval Research Lab. Rept no. NRL/MR/6183-93 -7335, 9 Jun 93.
[13]. Leonard, J. T. Fulper, C. R, Post-Flashover Fires in Simulated Ship board Compartments; Phase2 –Cooling of Fire Compartment Boundaries [R]. Naval Research Lab. Rept no.NRL-MR-6896,19 Sep91.
[14]. Leonard, J. T. Fulper, C. R., Post-Flashover Fires in Simulated Shipboard Compartments. Phase 1-Small Scale Studies [R]. Naval Research Lab, Rept no. NRLMR - 6886, 3 Sep91.
[15]. Williams, F. W .Scheffey, J.L .Hill, S. A .Toomey, T.A .Darwin, R. L, Post-Flashover Fires in Shipboard Compartments Aboard Ex-USS Shadwell. Phase5 –Fire Dynamics[R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/ FR/6180-99-9902, 31 May 1999.
[16]. Cole, J. K. Koski, J. A. wix, D. D.,Calculation of Ship board Fire Conditions[R] , Technology, Sandia National Lab oratories (SNL), SAND99-1293J, 21 May 1999.
[17]. Hoover, J. B. Tatem, P. A, Application of CFAST to Ship board Fire Modeling III. Guidelines f or Users[R]. Naval Research Lab,NRL/MR/6180-01-8550,23 Apr 2001.
[18]. Hoover,J. B. Tatem, P. A,Application of CFAST to Ship board Fire Modeling II. Specification of Complex Geometry [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/MR/6180-00-8489, 29 Dec 2000.
[19]. Hoover, J.B .Tatem, P .A, Application of CFAST to Ship board Fire Modeling I. Development of the Fire Specification [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRI./MR/6180-00 -8466, 26 Jun 2000.
[20]. Bailey, J .L .Tatem, P .A, Validation of Fire/Smoke Spread Model (CFAST) using Ex-US SHADWELL Internal Ship Conflagration Control (ISCC) Fire Tests [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/MR/6180-95-7781,30 Sep 1999.
[21]. Abaya, A. F, Propagation of Fire Generated Smoke in Shipboard Spaces with Geometric Interferences[R]. Naval Postgraduate School,ADA384955/XAB, Sep 2000.
[22]. Shou, G. Wilkins, D. C. Hoemmen, M. Mueller, C. Tatem, P. A, Supervisory Control System for Ship Damage Control: Volume 2-Scenario Generation and Physical Ship Simulation of Fire,smoke,Flooding,and Rupture[R]. Office of Naval Research, N RL/MR/6180-01-8572, 24 Aug 2001.
[23]. Gottuk, D.T .H ill, S.A .Schemel, C .F .Strehlen, B .D, Identification of Fire Signatures for Shipboard Multi-Criteria Fire Detection Systems [R]. Naval Research Lab, N RL/MR/6180-99-8386, 18 Jun 1999.
[24]. Hart, S. J. Hammond, M. H. Rose-Pehrsson, S. L. Shaffer, R .E .Gottuk, D.T, Real\l Time Probabilistic Neural Network Performance and Optimization for Fire Detection and Nuisance Alarm Rejection: Test Series 1Results [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/MR/6120-00-8480, 31 Aug 2000.
[25]. Mawhinney, J. R. Dinenno, P. J. Williams, F. W, New Concepts for Design of an Automated Hydraulic Piping Network for a Water Mist Fire Suppression System on Navy Ships,Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability[R]. NRL/MR/6180-01-8580, 28 Sep 2001.
[26]. Reed, M .D .Fleming, J.W .Williams, B .A .Sheinson, R.S. Chattaway. A Laboratory Evaluation of bicarbonate Powders as Fire Suppressants [R]. Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability, ADA379699/XAB, 1997.
[27]. Mouring, Sarah E. Composites for naval surface ships [J]. Marine Technology Society Journal V32 n2 Summer1998.p 41-46.
[28]. Nikitin, Y. V. Structural Analysis and Modeling for Command Decisions during Fire on Board Ships [R]. Naval Post graduate School, ADA 366351/XAB, Jun 1999.
[29]. Andrade, S. F. Intelligent Agent Simulations of Shipboard Damage Control [R]. Naval Postgraduate School, ADA380225/XAB, Jun 2000.
[30]. 董华,刘忠,张人杰等. 舰船火灾中烟气沿通道蔓延特征的计算机模拟[]. 火灾科学.1995, 4(02):52-56.
[31]. 中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室研究报告:舰船机舱着火机理模型系列研究[R]. 2002,3.
[32]. 陈伟炯. 船舶碰撞事故原因及预防措施. 航海技术,1999,(6):23-24.
[33]. 中华人民共和国公安部消防局. 防火手册. 上海科学技术出版社, 1992.
[34]. 陈宝智. 危险源辨识控制及评价.成都:四川科学技术出版社,1996.
[35]. 吴宗之,高进东,魏利军. 危险评价方法及其应用. 北京:冶金工业出版社,2001.
[36]. 魏新利,李惠萍,王自健. 工业生产过程安全评价[M]. 北京:化学工业出版社,2004.133 – 134.
[37]. 林少芬,陈映秋. 散装货船模糊综合安全性评估的实现方法[J]. 船舶工程,2000, 1:60 – 62.
[38]. 韩立岩,汪培庄. 应用模糊数学[M]. 北京:首都贸易经济大学出版社,1998,1.
[39]. 肖新平. 灰色聚类分析用于环境质量的评价[J]. 武汉交通科技大学学报,1997,21 (1) :79-83.
[40]. 夏家武, 浦金云, 蔡一轮. 舰艇舱室火灾危险性的评估方法[J]. 海军工程大学学报,2002,14(2):34-38
[41]. prEN 50126. Railway applications. The specification and demonstration of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (RAMS) [S]. CENELEC, European Committee for Electro-technical Standardization.
[42]. Farrokh Nadium, Gudmestad Ove T. Reliability of an Engineering System under a Strong Earthquake with Application to Offshore Platforms. Structure Safety 1994(14):56-59.
[43]. Ditlevsen O. Risk acceptance criteria and/or decision optimization [A]. 15th IABSE congress: structural engineering in consideration of economy, environment and energy[C]. Copenhagen, 1996.
[44]. Bottelberghs P H. Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2000, 71(123).
[45]. 张春来,吴兆麟. 机舱事故中人为因素的研究[J]. 大连海事大学学报,1995,25(2):45-48
[46]. 邹高万,刘顺隆,周允基,郜冶. 中国船舶机舱火灾研究现状[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2004,14(5):76-79
[47]. 黄文启. 船舶电气防火与防爆[J]. 江苏船舶,2004,21(6):26-27.
[48]. 马红涛. 船舶机舱安全评估分析与展望[J]. 世界海运,2003,26(6):35-37.
[49]. 李红江,张晓峰,焦绍光,叶志浩. 舰船电力系统可靠性研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报,2006,30(6):931-933.
[50]. Bondini Francesca. Demystifying risk management [J] .Shipping World and Shipbuilder, v 207, n 4224, June, 2006, p 34-37.
[51]. Anon. Surviving a fire [J]. Shipping World and Shipbuilder, v 207, n 4222, April,2006, p 16-21.
[52]. 王志国,仲晨华,朱志洁,殷沐德. 舰船设计中的大型舱室防火分隔方法[J]. 船舶,2004,2:48-50.
[53]. 周江华,王柄辉,丁天明. 基于事故树分析法的船舶安全评价[J]. 浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版),2002,21(1):75-79.
[54]. 潘璘玲. 最小径集与最小割集在事故树分析中的作用[J]. 安全与健康:2003, 19:31-33.
[55]. 中华人民共和国国家军用标准.舰船通用规范,船体属具与舱室设施,GJB 4000-2000[S]. 北京:总装备部军标发行部,2000.
[56]. 王志国,仲晨华,杨志青,殷沐德. 舰船防火区域划分原则研究[J]. 海军工程大学学报,2003,15(1):50-52.
[57]. 张光辉,浦金云,陈晓红. 舰船火灾综合评估[J]. 船舶,2006,1:30-33
[58]. 中国船级社. 船舶消防指南[M]. 北京:人民交通出版社,1999.
[59]. 崔鲁宁,浦金云,蔡一轮. 多种武器攻击下舰船电力系统生命力的加权模糊综合评判[J]. 船舶,2004,2:47—49.
[60]. 唐文勇,张道坤,张圣坤. 大型水面舰艇生命力快速评估方法研究[J].舰船科学技术,2006,28(3):87—90.
[61]. GJB868-91,舰船消防要求[S].
[62]. 浦金云. 舰艇生命力论证[R]. 武汉:海军工程大学. 1991:110 - 132.
[63]. 王志国,殷沐德,张继明. 舰船结构防火设计浅析[J]. 武汉造船.2001,1:26-27.
[64]. 王志国,殷沐德. 结构防火在舰船防火设计中的应用[J]. 火灾科学.2001,10(2):113-115.
[65]. 范维澄,孙金华,陆守香. 火灾风险评估方法学[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2004.
[66]. 李健,李健平,王黎,张明莉. 浅谈危险性分析中注意的问题[J]. 中国安全科学技术. 2005,1(2):60-62.
[67]. 刘茂. 危险源的辨识及危险性分析[J]. 石油化工安全技术.1996,12(2):17-19
[68]. 王莲芳,徐树柏. 层次分析法引论[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[69]. 杨伦标,高英仪. 模糊数学原理及应用. 华南理工大学出本社,1996.
[70]. 金东明. 船舶机舱防爆防燃应注意的问题[J]. 世界海运,2001,24(3) :17-18.
[71]. 浦金云. 舰船生命力论证[M]. 武汉:海军工程学院,1991.
[72]. 韩爱军,陈天云,李凤生,刘荣华. 爆炸危险源危险性定量评估方法的改进[J]. 爆破器材,28(2):32-36.
[73]. Faisal I.Khan, Rehan Sadiq, Tahir Husain. Risk-based process safety assessment and control measures design for offshore process facilities. Journal of Hazardous Material A 94(2002)1-36.
[74]. 王高阳,唐文勇,张圣坤. 人因综合安全评估(FSA)方法在海洋结构物事故中的应用研究[J]. 海洋工程,2005,23(4):77-84.
[75]. Landet E, Lotsberg I, Sigursson G. Risk based inspection of an FPSO [A]. Proceedings of the Annual Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) [C]. Houston Texas USA, 2000,2: 739 - 748.
[76]. 李典庆, 张圣坤, 唐文勇. 基于风险的船体结构腐蚀优化检测及维修规划[J] .上海交通大学学报, 2004 , 38 (11) : 1875-1879.
[77]. Harsanyi J C. Utilities, preferences and substantive goods [M]. The United Nations University, 1992.
[78]. Okamoto K. Introduction to risk and psychology [M]. Saiensu, 1992.
[79]. Schneider J. Sicherheit und zuverl? ssigkeit im bauwesen, grundwissen für ingenieure [J]. VDF , Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zürich ,1994.
[80]. GL&DNV. Concerted action on FSEA [EB/ OL]. WA-96-CA-1155, 1999, 7. http: //www. germanlloyd. org/fsea.
[81]. Mathiesen T C, Skjong R. Towards a rational approach to marine safety and environment protection regulations [A]. Conference on market mechanisms for safer shipping and cleaner oceans[C]. Rotterdam, 1996.
[82]. 李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤. 海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J]. 海洋工程, 2003 , 5.21 (2) : 96-102.
[83]. Kourmatzis I, Spouge J, Torhaug R. Formal safety assessment (FSA): a mode foundation for marine safety [A]. Marine forum 2000: The shipping risk management forum[C]. Athens Greece, 2000.
[84]. Skjong R, Ekness M. Economic activity and risk acceptance[R]. DNV Report No-99-2050, 1999.
[85]. Vinnem J E. Risk acceptance criteria for temporary phases [J]. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 1996, 118:2042-2049.
[86]. Suzuki H. Safety target of very large floating structure used as a floating airport [J] .Marine Structures, 2001, 14:103-113.
[87]. IMO. Formal safety assessment, decision parameters including risk acceptance criteria [Z]. MSC 72/16, 2000.
[88]. Skjong R, Ronold KO. Societal indicators and risk acceptance [A]. Proceeding of offshore mechanics and arctic engineering conference [C] .Lisbon, Portugal, 1998, 7.
[89]. Faber M H. Risk and safety in civil Engineering[R]. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland, 2001.
[90]. Stahl B, Aune S, Gebara J M, Cornell C A. Acceptance criteria for offshore platforms[J] . Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 2000, 122:153-156.
[91]. IMO. Interim guidelines for the application of formal safety assessment (FSA) to the IMO rule2making process [Z] .MSCPCirc. 829-MEPCPCirc. 335, 1997.
[92]. Nathwani J S, Lind N C, PandeyMD. Affordable safety by choice: the life quality method[R]. Institute for Risk Research, Universi2 ty of Waterloo, Canada, 1997.
[93]. NORSOK, Risk and emergency preparedness, (Z-013rev.1), Annex C: Methodology for establishment and use of environmental risk acceptance criteria [R]. 1998.
[2]. 管光东,周元和. 潜艇·事故·舰船破损[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社,1997.
[3]. 吴德铭,李守仁,王善等. 舰船产品可靠性工程可靠性设计[M]. 哈尔滨工程 大学出版社,1995年.
[4]. 易宏,张祖卫等. 船舶可靠性工程导论[M]. 国防工业出版社,1995年.
[5]. 徐维新,秦英孝. 可靠性工程[M]. 电子工业出版社,1988.
[6]. 李兹刚. 可靠性设计手册[M]. 中国造船工程学会电子设备学术委员会,1982.
[7]. 郭余庆,王岩. 系统可靠性理论及应用[M]. 煤炭工业出版社, 1991.
[8]. 盐见弘. 可靠性与维修性[M]. 北京:机械工业出版社,1987.
[9]. 章国栋等. 系统可靠性与维修性的分析与设计[M]. 北京:航空航天大学出版 社,1990.
[10]. Reed, M .D .Fleming, J.W .Williams, B .A .Sheinson, R. S. Chattaway, A,Laboratory Evaluation of bicarbonate Powders as Fire Suppressants [R]. Navy Technology Center f or Safety and Survivability, A DA379699/XAB, 1997.
[11]. Williams, F. W. Back, G. G,Post-Flashover Fires in Simulated Ship board Cpartments-Phase3 .Venting of Large Ship board Fires[R]. Naval Research Lab, Rept no .N R L /M R/6180-93-7338, 9 Jun93.
[12]. Scheffey, J. L .Toomey, T.A, Post-Flashover fires in Ship board Compartments Aboard ex –USS SHADWELL.P hase4 .Impact of Navy Fire Insulation[R]. Naval Research Lab. Rept no. NRL/MR/6183-93 -7335, 9 Jun 93.
[13]. Leonard, J. T. Fulper, C. R, Post-Flashover Fires in Simulated Ship board Compartments; Phase2 –Cooling of Fire Compartment Boundaries [R]. Naval Research Lab. Rept no.NRL-MR-6896,19 Sep91.
[14]. Leonard, J. T. Fulper, C. R., Post-Flashover Fires in Simulated Shipboard Compartments. Phase 1-Small Scale Studies [R]. Naval Research Lab, Rept no. NRLMR - 6886, 3 Sep91.
[15]. Williams, F. W .Scheffey, J.L .Hill, S. A .Toomey, T.A .Darwin, R. L, Post-Flashover Fires in Shipboard Compartments Aboard Ex-USS Shadwell. Phase5 –Fire Dynamics[R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/ FR/6180-99-9902, 31 May 1999.
[16]. Cole, J. K. Koski, J. A. wix, D. D.,Calculation of Ship board Fire Conditions[R] , Technology, Sandia National Lab oratories (SNL), SAND99-1293J, 21 May 1999.
[17]. Hoover, J. B. Tatem, P. A, Application of CFAST to Ship board Fire Modeling III. Guidelines f or Users[R]. Naval Research Lab,NRL/MR/6180-01-8550,23 Apr 2001.
[18]. Hoover,J. B. Tatem, P. A,Application of CFAST to Ship board Fire Modeling II. Specification of Complex Geometry [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/MR/6180-00-8489, 29 Dec 2000.
[19]. Hoover, J.B .Tatem, P .A, Application of CFAST to Ship board Fire Modeling I. Development of the Fire Specification [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRI./MR/6180-00 -8466, 26 Jun 2000.
[20]. Bailey, J .L .Tatem, P .A, Validation of Fire/Smoke Spread Model (CFAST) using Ex-US SHADWELL Internal Ship Conflagration Control (ISCC) Fire Tests [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/MR/6180-95-7781,30 Sep 1999.
[21]. Abaya, A. F, Propagation of Fire Generated Smoke in Shipboard Spaces with Geometric Interferences[R]. Naval Postgraduate School,ADA384955/XAB, Sep 2000.
[22]. Shou, G. Wilkins, D. C. Hoemmen, M. Mueller, C. Tatem, P. A, Supervisory Control System for Ship Damage Control: Volume 2-Scenario Generation and Physical Ship Simulation of Fire,smoke,Flooding,and Rupture[R]. Office of Naval Research, N RL/MR/6180-01-8572, 24 Aug 2001.
[23]. Gottuk, D.T .H ill, S.A .Schemel, C .F .Strehlen, B .D, Identification of Fire Signatures for Shipboard Multi-Criteria Fire Detection Systems [R]. Naval Research Lab, N RL/MR/6180-99-8386, 18 Jun 1999.
[24]. Hart, S. J. Hammond, M. H. Rose-Pehrsson, S. L. Shaffer, R .E .Gottuk, D.T, Real\l Time Probabilistic Neural Network Performance and Optimization for Fire Detection and Nuisance Alarm Rejection: Test Series 1Results [R]. Naval Research Lab, NRL/MR/6120-00-8480, 31 Aug 2000.
[25]. Mawhinney, J. R. Dinenno, P. J. Williams, F. W, New Concepts for Design of an Automated Hydraulic Piping Network for a Water Mist Fire Suppression System on Navy Ships,Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability[R]. NRL/MR/6180-01-8580, 28 Sep 2001.
[26]. Reed, M .D .Fleming, J.W .Williams, B .A .Sheinson, R.S. Chattaway. A Laboratory Evaluation of bicarbonate Powders as Fire Suppressants [R]. Navy Technology Center for Safety and Survivability, ADA379699/XAB, 1997.
[27]. Mouring, Sarah E. Composites for naval surface ships [J]. Marine Technology Society Journal V32 n2 Summer1998.p 41-46.
[28]. Nikitin, Y. V. Structural Analysis and Modeling for Command Decisions during Fire on Board Ships [R]. Naval Post graduate School, ADA 366351/XAB, Jun 1999.
[29]. Andrade, S. F. Intelligent Agent Simulations of Shipboard Damage Control [R]. Naval Postgraduate School, ADA380225/XAB, Jun 2000.
[30]. 董华,刘忠,张人杰等. 舰船火灾中烟气沿通道蔓延特征的计算机模拟[]. 火灾科学.1995, 4(02):52-56.
[31]. 中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室研究报告:舰船机舱着火机理模型系列研究[R]. 2002,3.
[32]. 陈伟炯. 船舶碰撞事故原因及预防措施. 航海技术,1999,(6):23-24.
[33]. 中华人民共和国公安部消防局. 防火手册. 上海科学技术出版社, 1992.
[34]. 陈宝智. 危险源辨识控制及评价.成都:四川科学技术出版社,1996.
[35]. 吴宗之,高进东,魏利军. 危险评价方法及其应用. 北京:冶金工业出版社,2001.
[36]. 魏新利,李惠萍,王自健. 工业生产过程安全评价[M]. 北京:化学工业出版社,2004.133 – 134.
[37]. 林少芬,陈映秋. 散装货船模糊综合安全性评估的实现方法[J]. 船舶工程,2000, 1:60 – 62.
[38]. 韩立岩,汪培庄. 应用模糊数学[M]. 北京:首都贸易经济大学出版社,1998,1.
[39]. 肖新平. 灰色聚类分析用于环境质量的评价[J]. 武汉交通科技大学学报,1997,21 (1) :79-83.
[40]. 夏家武, 浦金云, 蔡一轮. 舰艇舱室火灾危险性的评估方法[J]. 海军工程大学学报,2002,14(2):34-38
[41]. prEN 50126. Railway applications. The specification and demonstration of Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (RAMS) [S]. CENELEC, European Committee for Electro-technical Standardization.
[42]. Farrokh Nadium, Gudmestad Ove T. Reliability of an Engineering System under a Strong Earthquake with Application to Offshore Platforms. Structure Safety 1994(14):56-59.
[43]. Ditlevsen O. Risk acceptance criteria and/or decision optimization [A]. 15th IABSE congress: structural engineering in consideration of economy, environment and energy[C]. Copenhagen, 1996.
[44]. Bottelberghs P H. Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2000, 71(123).
[45]. 张春来,吴兆麟. 机舱事故中人为因素的研究[J]. 大连海事大学学报,1995,25(2):45-48
[46]. 邹高万,刘顺隆,周允基,郜冶. 中国船舶机舱火灾研究现状[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2004,14(5):76-79
[47]. 黄文启. 船舶电气防火与防爆[J]. 江苏船舶,2004,21(6):26-27.
[48]. 马红涛. 船舶机舱安全评估分析与展望[J]. 世界海运,2003,26(6):35-37.
[49]. 李红江,张晓峰,焦绍光,叶志浩. 舰船电力系统可靠性研究[J]. 武汉理工大学学报,2006,30(6):931-933.
[50]. Bondini Francesca. Demystifying risk management [J] .Shipping World and Shipbuilder, v 207, n 4224, June, 2006, p 34-37.
[51]. Anon. Surviving a fire [J]. Shipping World and Shipbuilder, v 207, n 4222, April,2006, p 16-21.
[52]. 王志国,仲晨华,朱志洁,殷沐德. 舰船设计中的大型舱室防火分隔方法[J]. 船舶,2004,2:48-50.
[53]. 周江华,王柄辉,丁天明. 基于事故树分析法的船舶安全评价[J]. 浙江海洋学院学报(自然科学版),2002,21(1):75-79.
[54]. 潘璘玲. 最小径集与最小割集在事故树分析中的作用[J]. 安全与健康:2003, 19:31-33.
[55]. 中华人民共和国国家军用标准.舰船通用规范,船体属具与舱室设施,GJB 4000-2000[S]. 北京:总装备部军标发行部,2000.
[56]. 王志国,仲晨华,杨志青,殷沐德. 舰船防火区域划分原则研究[J]. 海军工程大学学报,2003,15(1):50-52.
[57]. 张光辉,浦金云,陈晓红. 舰船火灾综合评估[J]. 船舶,2006,1:30-33
[58]. 中国船级社. 船舶消防指南[M]. 北京:人民交通出版社,1999.
[59]. 崔鲁宁,浦金云,蔡一轮. 多种武器攻击下舰船电力系统生命力的加权模糊综合评判[J]. 船舶,2004,2:47—49.
[60]. 唐文勇,张道坤,张圣坤. 大型水面舰艇生命力快速评估方法研究[J].舰船科学技术,2006,28(3):87—90.
[61]. GJB868-91,舰船消防要求[S].
[62]. 浦金云. 舰艇生命力论证[R]. 武汉:海军工程大学. 1991:110 - 132.
[63]. 王志国,殷沐德,张继明. 舰船结构防火设计浅析[J]. 武汉造船.2001,1:26-27.
[64]. 王志国,殷沐德. 结构防火在舰船防火设计中的应用[J]. 火灾科学.2001,10(2):113-115.
[65]. 范维澄,孙金华,陆守香. 火灾风险评估方法学[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2004.
[66]. 李健,李健平,王黎,张明莉. 浅谈危险性分析中注意的问题[J]. 中国安全科学技术. 2005,1(2):60-62.
[67]. 刘茂. 危险源的辨识及危险性分析[J]. 石油化工安全技术.1996,12(2):17-19
[68]. 王莲芳,徐树柏. 层次分析法引论[M]. 北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990.
[69]. 杨伦标,高英仪. 模糊数学原理及应用. 华南理工大学出本社,1996.
[70]. 金东明. 船舶机舱防爆防燃应注意的问题[J]. 世界海运,2001,24(3) :17-18.
[71]. 浦金云. 舰船生命力论证[M]. 武汉:海军工程学院,1991.
[72]. 韩爱军,陈天云,李凤生,刘荣华. 爆炸危险源危险性定量评估方法的改进[J]. 爆破器材,28(2):32-36.
[73]. Faisal I.Khan, Rehan Sadiq, Tahir Husain. Risk-based process safety assessment and control measures design for offshore process facilities. Journal of Hazardous Material A 94(2002)1-36.
[74]. 王高阳,唐文勇,张圣坤. 人因综合安全评估(FSA)方法在海洋结构物事故中的应用研究[J]. 海洋工程,2005,23(4):77-84.
[75]. Landet E, Lotsberg I, Sigursson G. Risk based inspection of an FPSO [A]. Proceedings of the Annual Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) [C]. Houston Texas USA, 2000,2: 739 - 748.
[76]. 李典庆, 张圣坤, 唐文勇. 基于风险的船体结构腐蚀优化检测及维修规划[J] .上海交通大学学报, 2004 , 38 (11) : 1875-1879.
[77]. Harsanyi J C. Utilities, preferences and substantive goods [M]. The United Nations University, 1992.
[78]. Okamoto K. Introduction to risk and psychology [M]. Saiensu, 1992.
[79]. Schneider J. Sicherheit und zuverl? ssigkeit im bauwesen, grundwissen für ingenieure [J]. VDF , Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zürich ,1994.
[80]. GL&DNV. Concerted action on FSEA [EB/ OL]. WA-96-CA-1155, 1999, 7. http: //www. germanlloyd. org/fsea.
[81]. Mathiesen T C, Skjong R. Towards a rational approach to marine safety and environment protection regulations [A]. Conference on market mechanisms for safer shipping and cleaner oceans[C]. Rotterdam, 1996.
[82]. 李典庆,唐文勇,张圣坤. 海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展[J]. 海洋工程, 2003 , 5.21 (2) : 96-102.
[83]. Kourmatzis I, Spouge J, Torhaug R. Formal safety assessment (FSA): a mode foundation for marine safety [A]. Marine forum 2000: The shipping risk management forum[C]. Athens Greece, 2000.
[84]. Skjong R, Ekness M. Economic activity and risk acceptance[R]. DNV Report No-99-2050, 1999.
[85]. Vinnem J E. Risk acceptance criteria for temporary phases [J]. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 1996, 118:2042-2049.
[86]. Suzuki H. Safety target of very large floating structure used as a floating airport [J] .Marine Structures, 2001, 14:103-113.
[87]. IMO. Formal safety assessment, decision parameters including risk acceptance criteria [Z]. MSC 72/16, 2000.
[88]. Skjong R, Ronold KO. Societal indicators and risk acceptance [A]. Proceeding of offshore mechanics and arctic engineering conference [C] .Lisbon, Portugal, 1998, 7.
[89]. Faber M H. Risk and safety in civil Engineering[R]. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland, 2001.
[90]. Stahl B, Aune S, Gebara J M, Cornell C A. Acceptance criteria for offshore platforms[J] . Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 2000, 122:153-156.
[91]. IMO. Interim guidelines for the application of formal safety assessment (FSA) to the IMO rule2making process [Z] .MSCPCirc. 829-MEPCPCirc. 335, 1997.
[92]. Nathwani J S, Lind N C, PandeyMD. Affordable safety by choice: the life quality method[R]. Institute for Risk Research, Universi2 ty of Waterloo, Canada, 1997.
[93]. NORSOK, Risk and emergency preparedness, (Z-013rev.1), Annex C: Methodology for establishment and use of environmental risk acceptance criteria [R]. 1998.