中国汽车产业生态足迹情景分析
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摘要
伴随着我国汽车产量和汽车保有量的高速增长,我国汽车产业无疑面临着前所未有的环境与能源压力。中国汽车产业能否实现可持续发展,解决好目前的“环保压力”和“能源供应”两大命题是关键。生态足迹分析模型是一种定量衡量可持续发展的重要方法,自提出以来得到了生态经济学界的广泛关注,并被应用于国家、地区和城市等各个层面的生态足迹、承载力、能源与环境指标研究中。借助生态足迹分析模型,可以将我国汽车产业对能源、资源的消耗以及温室气体的排放转化为相应的生态生产性土地面积,将这种压力定量化、形象化,便于分析和研究。
本文利用生态足迹分析模型对1997年到2007年的中国汽车产业各生命周期阶段内的生态足迹进行了核算,并对核算结果进行了汇总和详细的分析。核算结果表明,1997年到2007年间中国汽车产业总生态足迹的增长速率成上升趋势,2007年,中国汽车产业生态足迹是1997年的3.14倍,年均增长率12.12%。
之后,本文为中国汽车保有量的增长构建了高、中、低三种速度的发展情景,并且在这三种情景下进一步建立了不同的能源和资源消耗情景,构成了两个层次的六种发展情景,分别核算了这六种发展情景下中国汽车产业生态足迹的发展趋势,对核算结果进行了分析。
最后,结合中国汽车产业生态足迹的变化过程和发展趋势,得出了一些结论,并结合相关结论,针对未来汽车产业生态足迹的构成和将要面临的严峻的能源和环境压力提出了相应的对策。
With the rapid growth of China’s motor output and population, there’s no doubt that China’s motorcar industry is facing unprecedented pressure from environment and energy. In order to realize China’s motorcar industry sustainable development, environment and energy issues must be consciously and wisely solved. Ecological footprint (EF) model which has been paid worldwide attention can be used to quantificationally analysis the degree of sustainable development and has been put into research areas concerning ecological footprint, ecological capacity, and energy and environment indexes. By means of EF model we can transform the consumption of energy and resources and the output of green house gases of China’s motorcar industry into areas of biological production land. So, the pressure can be quantified and visualized, it is more convenient for us analyze and study.
This paper divided the life cycle of China’s motorcar industry into three phases and calcuated the ecological footprint of China’s motorcar industry between 1997 and 2007. The evaluation results were analyzed in detail. The results indicated that the total EF of the industry kept rising between 1997 and 2007, the EF of 2007 was 3.14 times of 1997, and the average annual growth rate was 12.12%.
Afterwards, 6 different development scenarios were constructed for China’s motorcar industry which included high, middle and low speed scenarios for motorcar population growth rate, and under each of the three scenarios tow different energy and resources consumption scenarios were constructed. The EF under the 6 scenarios were calculated and analyzed.
Finally, this paper summed up several conclusions and then put forward some countermeasures for China’s motorcar industry’s future development based on the foregoing EF evaluation results and analysis.
本文利用生态足迹分析模型对1997年到2007年的中国汽车产业各生命周期阶段内的生态足迹进行了核算,并对核算结果进行了汇总和详细的分析。核算结果表明,1997年到2007年间中国汽车产业总生态足迹的增长速率成上升趋势,2007年,中国汽车产业生态足迹是1997年的3.14倍,年均增长率12.12%。
之后,本文为中国汽车保有量的增长构建了高、中、低三种速度的发展情景,并且在这三种情景下进一步建立了不同的能源和资源消耗情景,构成了两个层次的六种发展情景,分别核算了这六种发展情景下中国汽车产业生态足迹的发展趋势,对核算结果进行了分析。
最后,结合中国汽车产业生态足迹的变化过程和发展趋势,得出了一些结论,并结合相关结论,针对未来汽车产业生态足迹的构成和将要面临的严峻的能源和环境压力提出了相应的对策。
With the rapid growth of China’s motor output and population, there’s no doubt that China’s motorcar industry is facing unprecedented pressure from environment and energy. In order to realize China’s motorcar industry sustainable development, environment and energy issues must be consciously and wisely solved. Ecological footprint (EF) model which has been paid worldwide attention can be used to quantificationally analysis the degree of sustainable development and has been put into research areas concerning ecological footprint, ecological capacity, and energy and environment indexes. By means of EF model we can transform the consumption of energy and resources and the output of green house gases of China’s motorcar industry into areas of biological production land. So, the pressure can be quantified and visualized, it is more convenient for us analyze and study.
This paper divided the life cycle of China’s motorcar industry into three phases and calcuated the ecological footprint of China’s motorcar industry between 1997 and 2007. The evaluation results were analyzed in detail. The results indicated that the total EF of the industry kept rising between 1997 and 2007, the EF of 2007 was 3.14 times of 1997, and the average annual growth rate was 12.12%.
Afterwards, 6 different development scenarios were constructed for China’s motorcar industry which included high, middle and low speed scenarios for motorcar population growth rate, and under each of the three scenarios tow different energy and resources consumption scenarios were constructed. The EF under the 6 scenarios were calculated and analyzed.
Finally, this paper summed up several conclusions and then put forward some countermeasures for China’s motorcar industry’s future development based on the foregoing EF evaluation results and analysis.
引文
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[26]李中才,王广成,娄美珍.中国生态足迹与经济增长的协整、误差修正模型及预测[J].系统工程.2007,25(8):63-67.
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[36]李智,鞠美庭,刘伟,邵超峰.中国1996年～2005年能源生态足迹与效率动态测度与分析[J].资源科学,2007,29(6):54-60.
[37]薛薇.统计分析与SPSS的应用(第2版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[38](美)多米尼克·萨尔瓦多,德里克·瑞杰.统计学与计量经济学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2008.
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[41]张晓峒.计量经济学软件EViews使用指南[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2003.
[42]克莱夫·W·J·格兰杰(Clive W. J. Granger).经济学中的经验建模:设定与评价[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005.
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[2] Recs W E.Ecological footprint and appropriated carrying capacity:what urban economics leaves out[J] Environment and Urbanization,l992,4(2):12l-l30.
[3]Rees W E,Wackernagel M.Monetary analysis:Turning a blind eye on sustainability.Ecological Economic,1998,29:47-52.
[4] Wackernagel M,Rees WE.1996.Our Ecological Footprint:Reducing Human Impact on the Earth.Gabriela Island,BC:New Society Publishers.
[5]曾忠禄,张冬梅.不确定环境下解读未来的方法:情景分析法[J].情报杂志,2005(5):14-16.
[6]杨开忠,杨咏,陈洁.生态足迹分析理论方法[J],地球科学进展,2000, 13 (6): 630-636.
[7]Hardi P,Barg S,Hodge T,et a1.Measuring sustainable development:Review of current practice.Occasional paper,1997,17:1-2,49-51.
[8]吴开亚,王玲杰.基于全球公顷和国家公顷的生态足迹核算差异分析[J].中国人口·资源与环,2007,17(5):271-278.
[9]黄肇义,杨东援.测度生态可持续发展的生态痕迹分析方法[J].城市规划,2001,2 5(11):26-32.
[10]徐中民,张志强,程国栋.生态足迹的概念及计算模[J].生态经济,2000, 10: 8-10.
[11] Van Vuuren D P,Smeets E M W.Ecological Footprints of Benin,Bhutan,Costa Rica and the Netherlands[J].Ecologicall Economics,2000,34(234):115-130.
[12]Haberl H,Erb K-H,Krammann F.Ho to Calculate and Interpret Ecological Footprints for Long Periods of Time:the Case of Australia 1926～1995[J].Ecological Economics,2001,38:25-145.
[13]Wackernagel M,Monfreda C,Erb,K-H,et a1.Ecological Footprint Time Series of Australia,the Philippines,and South Korea for 1961～1999:Comparing the Conventional Approach to an“Actual Land Area”Approach[J].Land Use Policy,2004,21(3):261-269.
[14]Wackernagel M,Monfreda C,Sehulz B N,et a1.Calculating National and Global Ecological Footprint Time Series: Resolving Conceptual Challenges[J].Land Use Policy,2004,21:271-278.
[15]晓薇,王青,刘建兴,等.基于“国家公顷”计算城市生态足迹的新方法[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2005,26(4):397-400.
[16]蓝盛芳,钦佩.生态系统的能值分析[J].应用生态学报。2001,12(1):129-131.
[17]张芳怡,濮励杰,张健.2006.基于能值分析理论的生态足迹模型及应用[J].自然资源学报,21(4):653-659.
[18]付晓,吴刚,刘阳.生态学研究中的熵分析与能值分析理论[J].生态学报,2004,24(11):2621-2626.
[19] Lenzen M and Murray S A.A modified ecological footprint and its application to Australia,Ecological Economics,2001,(37):229-255.
[20]Ferng J-J.Using composition of land multiplier to estimate ecological footprint associated with production activity.Ecological Economics,2001,(37):159-172.
[21]FerngJ-J.Toward a scenario analysis framework for energy footprints.Ecological Economics,2002,(40):53-69.
[22]Hubacek K and Giljum S . Applying physical input—output analysis to estimate land appropriation(ecological footprint)of international trade activities,Ecological Economics,2003,(44):137-151.
[23] Bicknell K B,Ball R J,Cullen R,et a1.New methodology for the ecological footprint with an application to the New Zealand economy,Ecological Economics,1998,(27):149-160.
[24]曹淑艳,谢高地.基于投入产出分析的中国生态足迹模型[J].生态学报.2007,27(4):1499-1506.
[25]李湘梅,周敬宣,陈雷.城市生态环境演变趋势的集对分析预测研究——以武汉市为例[J].生态环境.2007,16(1):83-87.
[26]李中才,王广成,娄美珍.中国生态足迹与经济增长的协整、误差修正模型及预测[J].系统工程.2007,25(8):63-67.
[27]BOX G E P.JENKINS G M.REINSELG C.Time Series Analysis:Forecasting and Control[M].The third edition.NY:Prentice?HallInc.I994.
[28]胡永红,吴志峰,李定强.基于ARIMA模型的区域水生态足迹时间序列分析[J].生态环境.2006,15(1):94-98.
[29]张生根,王心源,田兵.基于GM(1,1)的芜湖市人均农用地生态足迹变化研究[J].资源开发与市场.2007,23(12):1070-1072.
[30]黄林楠,张伟新,姜翠玲,范晓秋.水资源生态足迹计算方法[J].生态学报,2008,28(3):1279-1286.
[31]黄志甲,张旭.汽车燃料的生命周期评价模型[J].同济大学学报,2003,31(12):1472-1476.
[32]王寿兵,王如松.中国复杂工业产品生命周期生态评价——方法与实例研究[D]:[博士学位论文].上海:复旦大学环境科学与工程系,1999.
[33]田文彪,魏明.汽车制造企业能耗分析及节能新技术[J].节能,2007,26(11):21-23.
[34]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴1996-2008[R],北京:中国统计出版社,1996-2008.
[35]刘建兴,王青,孙鹏,顾晓薇,李广军.中国1990～2004年生态足迹动态变化效应的分解分析[J].自然资源学报,2008,23(1):61-68.
[36]李智,鞠美庭,刘伟,邵超峰.中国1996年～2005年能源生态足迹与效率动态测度与分析[J].资源科学,2007,29(6):54-60.
[37]薛薇.统计分析与SPSS的应用(第2版)[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2008.
[38](美)多米尼克·萨尔瓦多,德里克·瑞杰.统计学与计量经济学[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2008.
[39]张晓峒.计量经济学基础(第3版)[M].天津:南开大学出版社,2007.
[40]高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2006.
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