油田企业能耗评价与优化决策研究
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摘要
能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,我国能源资源总量比较丰富,但是从我国能源供需发展来看,当前我国的能源约束情况日益突出。我国能源技术装备水平低和管理水平相对落后,导致单位GDP能耗和主要耗能产品能耗高于主要能源消费国家平均水平,进一步加剧了能源供需矛盾。节约能源是满足能源资源需求的一条有效途径,是我国经济可持续发展的重要保证。
油田企业作为油气能源生产企业,为我国的能源安全和经济社会发展做出了巨大贡献。在油气开发生产过程中,油田企业也要消耗掉大量的能源,而且能耗随着老油田开发难度的加大呈逐步增长的趋势。油田企业实现节能降耗,一方面可为国家提供更多油气资源,另一方面也有利于油田企业降低产品生产成本,是油田企业增强企业竞争力的重要举措。开展油田企业能耗评价与预测优化研究具有很强的前瞻性、战略性和现实针对性,也面临极大的困难和挑战。
文中涉及的主要内容、方法和观点如下:
深化了对能源理论的基本认识,在分析国内外能源形势和油田企业生产现状的基础上,根据节能的基本要求,建立了涵盖5个子系统包括18个指标的油田企业能耗评价指标体系,选择了主成分价值函数法、均权TOPSIS方法、欧氏距离价值函数法作为评价方法并据此建立了评价模型,对油田企业的能耗现状进行了评价分析;运用灰色预测法与DEA理论建立了能源消耗预测模型并进行了优化,获知企业能源投入的基本走向与大概数值,再以能源投入预测为基础,结合企业发展规划,对预测结果进行优化;考虑到节能技措项目是实现节能降耗的主要手段,运用基于区间型多属性决策项目优选方法根据实例对节能技措项目进行了方案优选决策研究;最后根据模型分析结果提出了政策建议。
本文建立的油田企业能耗评价模型、预测与优化模型以及区间型项目优选决策方法模型及其应用,对于改进能源决策,加强能源运行调节和应急管理,更好地实现节能降耗,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。
The sources of energy is an important material which human society rely for existing and developing, our country energy resources quantity is comparatively rich, but China's energy situation has become increasingly obvious restraint from the view of the development of China's energy supply at present. Low sum of our country the sources of energy equipment and control level falls behind relatively in unit GDP energy consumption about developed country. Energy consumption of the product is higher than main energy consumption average mainly level which aggravated further the sources of energy imbalance between supply and demand. Reduce the consumption of energy is an effective approach the energy needs, and important guarantee for China's economy sustainable development.
As energy production enterprises, oil field enterprises have made enormous contribution for our country energy safety and economic development. In the procedure of oil and gas production, oil field enterprise also needs to consume large amount of energy and the energy consumption assumes the step by step growing trend with old oil field development degree of difficulty enlarging. Oil field enterprise realizes saving energy and reducing consumption may provide more sources, in the other hand it may reduces cost of production and strengthen the competition largely. It is rather prospective to make research on oilfield enterprises energy consumption evaluation and optimize decision-making, together with enormous difficulty and challenge.
The major contents, methods and opinions concerned are as follows:
The knowledge of energy theory is deepened. Based on the energy’s multi-properties and the situation of oilfield enterprise, building-up the oilfield enterprise energy consumption evaluation indicators system which contain 5 subsystems and 18 indicators according to energy conservation. Choose PCA, TOPSIS and distance value analysis to build up evaluation model, to analyze oil field enterprises energy consumption current situation. Use gray model forecasting method and DEA theory to build up the forecast model of energy consumption and optimize it. Learn the fundamental trend and rough numerical value that enterprise energy needs, provide the necessary basis to optimize energy of enterprise according to enterprise expansion projects. Thinking that skill manages project to energy conservation is to realize main saving energy and reducing consumption means, use an approach which based on interval uncertain multi-attribute decision-making to research optimization of oilfield energy consumption program. Energy consumption of oil field enterprise has been analyzed and the relevant suggestions are put forward.
The application of the oil field enterprise energy consumption evaluation model, the forecasting model of energy consumption and interval uncertain multi-attribute decision-making model built by this paper has very important theoretic and practical value to improve energy policy, strengthen energy regulation and operation of emergency management and achieve energy saving better.
油田企业作为油气能源生产企业,为我国的能源安全和经济社会发展做出了巨大贡献。在油气开发生产过程中,油田企业也要消耗掉大量的能源,而且能耗随着老油田开发难度的加大呈逐步增长的趋势。油田企业实现节能降耗,一方面可为国家提供更多油气资源,另一方面也有利于油田企业降低产品生产成本,是油田企业增强企业竞争力的重要举措。开展油田企业能耗评价与预测优化研究具有很强的前瞻性、战略性和现实针对性,也面临极大的困难和挑战。
文中涉及的主要内容、方法和观点如下:
深化了对能源理论的基本认识,在分析国内外能源形势和油田企业生产现状的基础上,根据节能的基本要求,建立了涵盖5个子系统包括18个指标的油田企业能耗评价指标体系,选择了主成分价值函数法、均权TOPSIS方法、欧氏距离价值函数法作为评价方法并据此建立了评价模型,对油田企业的能耗现状进行了评价分析;运用灰色预测法与DEA理论建立了能源消耗预测模型并进行了优化,获知企业能源投入的基本走向与大概数值,再以能源投入预测为基础,结合企业发展规划,对预测结果进行优化;考虑到节能技措项目是实现节能降耗的主要手段,运用基于区间型多属性决策项目优选方法根据实例对节能技措项目进行了方案优选决策研究;最后根据模型分析结果提出了政策建议。
本文建立的油田企业能耗评价模型、预测与优化模型以及区间型项目优选决策方法模型及其应用,对于改进能源决策,加强能源运行调节和应急管理,更好地实现节能降耗,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。
The sources of energy is an important material which human society rely for existing and developing, our country energy resources quantity is comparatively rich, but China's energy situation has become increasingly obvious restraint from the view of the development of China's energy supply at present. Low sum of our country the sources of energy equipment and control level falls behind relatively in unit GDP energy consumption about developed country. Energy consumption of the product is higher than main energy consumption average mainly level which aggravated further the sources of energy imbalance between supply and demand. Reduce the consumption of energy is an effective approach the energy needs, and important guarantee for China's economy sustainable development.
As energy production enterprises, oil field enterprises have made enormous contribution for our country energy safety and economic development. In the procedure of oil and gas production, oil field enterprise also needs to consume large amount of energy and the energy consumption assumes the step by step growing trend with old oil field development degree of difficulty enlarging. Oil field enterprise realizes saving energy and reducing consumption may provide more sources, in the other hand it may reduces cost of production and strengthen the competition largely. It is rather prospective to make research on oilfield enterprises energy consumption evaluation and optimize decision-making, together with enormous difficulty and challenge.
The major contents, methods and opinions concerned are as follows:
The knowledge of energy theory is deepened. Based on the energy’s multi-properties and the situation of oilfield enterprise, building-up the oilfield enterprise energy consumption evaluation indicators system which contain 5 subsystems and 18 indicators according to energy conservation. Choose PCA, TOPSIS and distance value analysis to build up evaluation model, to analyze oil field enterprises energy consumption current situation. Use gray model forecasting method and DEA theory to build up the forecast model of energy consumption and optimize it. Learn the fundamental trend and rough numerical value that enterprise energy needs, provide the necessary basis to optimize energy of enterprise according to enterprise expansion projects. Thinking that skill manages project to energy conservation is to realize main saving energy and reducing consumption means, use an approach which based on interval uncertain multi-attribute decision-making to research optimization of oilfield energy consumption program. Energy consumption of oil field enterprise has been analyzed and the relevant suggestions are put forward.
The application of the oil field enterprise energy consumption evaluation model, the forecasting model of energy consumption and interval uncertain multi-attribute decision-making model built by this paper has very important theoretic and practical value to improve energy policy, strengthen energy regulation and operation of emergency management and achieve energy saving better.
引文
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[2]张连生.在多重约束下节约能源的思考[J].价格月刊,2006,(7):44-45.
[3]赵丽霞,魏巍贤.能源与经济增长模型研究[J].预测,1998,(6):32.
[4]国际能源署.世界能源展望.2004[M].北京:中国石化出版社,2006.
[5]杨庆舟,王立杰.中国能源供应能力评价方法及实证研究[J].权威论坛,2006,4:24-27.
[6]熊华文,郁聪.建设节能型社会面临的问题及对策[J].宏观经济管理,2006,(3):31-33.
[7]国家发改委外事司.欧盟节能战略及启示[J].中国经贸导刊,2005, 14:29.
[8]张抗.建立石油安全预警系统势在必行[J].国际石油经济,2004,( 1):12-14.
[9]刘豹.能源模型与系统分析[M].北京:能源出版社,1984.
[10]袁明一.MARKAL能源供应模型的应用[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1989.
[11] A1-Sahlawi M.A. Gasoline demand:the case of Saudi Arabia [J], Energy Economics, 1988: 271-274.
[12] Bentzen J, Engsted T. Short and long-run elasticities in energy demand: a cointegration approach [J]. Journal of Energy Economics, 1993, 16(2): 139-143.
[13] Eltony M.N.AI-Mutairi N. H-Demand for gasoline in Kuwai-An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques [J]. Energy Economics, 1995, (17): 249-253.
[14] Ramanathan R. Short-and-long-run elasticity of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques [J]. Energy Economics, 1999, (21): 321-330.
[15] Rodney Samimi. Road transport energy demand in Australia: A cointegration approach [J]. Energy Economics, 1995, (17): 329-339.
[16] Glasure Y.U, Lee A.R. Cointegration, error-correction, and the relationship between GDP and Energy: case of South Korea and Singapore [J]. Resource and the Energy Economics, 1997, (20): 17- 25.
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