基于DEA的煤层气经济评价模型研究
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摘要
煤层气的勘探开发具有重要的战略意义,它一方面将改善我国的能源结构,形成洁净能源新产业;同时,煤层气的开采可以防治煤矿瓦斯事故,改善煤矿安全生产条件,减少瓦斯排放所导致的温室效应,保护全球环境。虽然煤层气的开发具有诸多的效益,但是煤层气开发在现有技术和条件下,依然是一种高投入、高风险、高技术的产业。为了减少煤层气开发投资风险,提高资源利用效率,获得最大的投资效益,因此急需开展煤层气经济评价相关理论研究工作。
论文结合项目经济学、技术经济学、矿井经济评价,首先分析了煤层气开发的过程、开发的难点,然后明确了影响煤层气项目价值的相关因素,并建立了相关因素的计算模型。
上述相关因素的分布特征和变化规律,直接影响煤层气经济评价指标和DEA模型的选择,对于建立煤层气经济评价模型有着重要意义。所以本文运用数量化方法研究了产气量、储层参数、经济参数等主要参数的变化对煤层气项目经济性的影响规律,建立了相应的数量化模型。结果表明渗透率、煤层气价格等因素是影响煤层气项目经济性的主要因素。
在确立了影响煤层气项目价值的参数范围及其数量化特征的基础上,论文探索建立了适合煤层气项目特点的经济评价指标体系。为解决指标参数是区间数值的问题,本文结合有界数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis-DEA)模型与新建立的指标体系,建立了有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型,利用该评价模型结合实例研究了不同产出效益、不同地区的煤层气开发方案,找出了潘庄煤层气开发方案与国外煤层气开发方案存在的差别,提出了提高潘庄开发方案煤层气产出效益的解决思路。
有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型只关注决策单元的整体,忽略了有界参数的分布特征,不利于表达参数区间内部不同位置上的风险性,所以本文利用区间DEA融合蒙特卡罗方法,建立了确定煤层气开发评价参数有效区间的研究方法,解决了利用DEA模型优选煤层气开发区域的问题。
最后,论文结合潘庄实例,统计了煤储层参数的变化区间,模拟了三种直井形式不同井间距的井网产能和四种水平井形式不同水平进尺的水平井产能,优选出最优直井和最优水平井开发方案。通过对优选方案的经济参数的对比,表明水平井方案优于直井方案。为了进一步衡量水平井方案的风险性,利用概率分析方法和区间-蒙特卡罗法分别确定了水平井方案的经济参数变异系数和水平井方案的渗透率、压力梯度、含气量的有效区间。
本文的创新点为:
(1)利用非线性理论研究了煤层气产气量的非线性特征,结果表明煤层气产气量曲线具有长时相关性和混沌特征。
(2)建立了有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型,结合实例研究了不同产出效益不同地区的煤层气开发方案,不但找出了潘庄方案与国外煤层气开发实施方案存在的差别,分析了影响潘庄方案产出效益的关键因素,而且提出了提高潘庄方案煤层气产出效益的解决思路。结果表明利用有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型进行经济评价,不但克服了传统评价方法指标权重需人为干预的缺点,而且提供了提高效率的具体参数量化标准。
(3)利用区间DEA模型结合蒙特卡罗解法,建立了区间DEA煤层气经济评价不确定性分析方法,实现了煤层气经济评价的不确定性分析。确立了优选水平井方案的有界变量的有效区间,限定了煤层气开发的优选范围。
The exploration and development of coalbed methane(CBM) have important strategic significances, on one hand it improves China's energy structure and forms a new clean energy industry;On the other hand the exploration of CBM prevents coal mine gas accidents, improves coal mine's safety production condition, reduces gas emission which causes the strong greenhouse effect and protects the global environment. Although of so many benefits, CBM exploration is an industry of high input, high risk and high technology under the current conditions. For reducing the risk, raising reservoir implement efficency and getting the best invest benifits, CBM economical evaluation theories and technologies need to be researched.
Based on Project Economics, Technology Economics, Economic Evaluation of Mine, The CBM exploration procedures and difficulties are analyzed firstly.Then the factors and its models affecting CBM project value are defined.
However the above parameters distribution characters and change rules are important for CBM economic evaluation model creation by affecting CBM economic evaluation index and DEA model choosing. So some quantity models of the rules from main parameters change are created including the production, reservior parameters, and economic parameters. And the results show that the permeability and CBM price are main effective factors of projects value.
Based on above parameters and its functions, the CBM economical economic index system is created. For solving the problem of the parameters often express using interval, Bounded DEA model for CBM economic evaluation is created by combining BNDDEA(Bounded DEA) model and CBM economic evaluation index system. Moreover using this model and some examples, the difference between foreign and domestic CBM plan is founded. And the dfifference tell us which factors are main elements for increasing CBM Production of Panzhuang, so the way for raising production benefits of Panzhuange is proposed.
The CBM economic evaluation BNDDEA model only concerns about the whole decision making units.However risk evaluation needs to discove the risk at different points in interval.So it is difficult to study the insides of DMU parameters.For this reason, the method of interval DEA combining montecalo simulation is proposed for determining the effency interval of CBM horizontal well exploration.As a result, the problem of defining CBM exploration optimum scope by DEA model is solved.
Finally, with an example of Panzhuang, the production curves of three styles different distance vertical well nets and four styles different length horizontal wells are simulated.In addition the best vertical well plan and horizontal plan are choosen.By comparision of vertical well plan’s and horizontal plan’s economic parameters,the horizontal well plan is selected. Moreover to discover the uncertainty of horizontal well plan, coefficient of variations and efficency intervals of horizontal well are difined by stastical analysis method and interval DEA-Montecarlo method respectively.
The dissertation innovations are as follows.
(1)The CBM production curve is analyzied by nolinear theory,and the results show the CBM production curve is long term correlated and chaostic.
(2)Using the new created CBM economic evaluation model based on BNDDEA, the difference between foreign and domestic CBM plans is founded. And the dfifference tell us which factors are main elements for increasing CBM Production of Panzhuang, so the way for raising production benefits of Panzhuange is proposed.The results show this method is avoiding human intervention of index weight and give quantity parameters description of increasing CBM projets benefit.
(3)Combing interval DEA and montecarlo method,the created uncertainty analysis method of CBM economic evaluation based on interval DEA is used to definite the effency interval of selected horizontal well plan bounded parameters.And the optimum selecting exploration scope is determined.
论文结合项目经济学、技术经济学、矿井经济评价,首先分析了煤层气开发的过程、开发的难点,然后明确了影响煤层气项目价值的相关因素,并建立了相关因素的计算模型。
上述相关因素的分布特征和变化规律,直接影响煤层气经济评价指标和DEA模型的选择,对于建立煤层气经济评价模型有着重要意义。所以本文运用数量化方法研究了产气量、储层参数、经济参数等主要参数的变化对煤层气项目经济性的影响规律,建立了相应的数量化模型。结果表明渗透率、煤层气价格等因素是影响煤层气项目经济性的主要因素。
在确立了影响煤层气项目价值的参数范围及其数量化特征的基础上,论文探索建立了适合煤层气项目特点的经济评价指标体系。为解决指标参数是区间数值的问题,本文结合有界数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis-DEA)模型与新建立的指标体系,建立了有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型,利用该评价模型结合实例研究了不同产出效益、不同地区的煤层气开发方案,找出了潘庄煤层气开发方案与国外煤层气开发方案存在的差别,提出了提高潘庄开发方案煤层气产出效益的解决思路。
有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型只关注决策单元的整体,忽略了有界参数的分布特征,不利于表达参数区间内部不同位置上的风险性,所以本文利用区间DEA融合蒙特卡罗方法,建立了确定煤层气开发评价参数有效区间的研究方法,解决了利用DEA模型优选煤层气开发区域的问题。
最后,论文结合潘庄实例,统计了煤储层参数的变化区间,模拟了三种直井形式不同井间距的井网产能和四种水平井形式不同水平进尺的水平井产能,优选出最优直井和最优水平井开发方案。通过对优选方案的经济参数的对比,表明水平井方案优于直井方案。为了进一步衡量水平井方案的风险性,利用概率分析方法和区间-蒙特卡罗法分别确定了水平井方案的经济参数变异系数和水平井方案的渗透率、压力梯度、含气量的有效区间。
本文的创新点为:
(1)利用非线性理论研究了煤层气产气量的非线性特征,结果表明煤层气产气量曲线具有长时相关性和混沌特征。
(2)建立了有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型,结合实例研究了不同产出效益不同地区的煤层气开发方案,不但找出了潘庄方案与国外煤层气开发实施方案存在的差别,分析了影响潘庄方案产出效益的关键因素,而且提出了提高潘庄方案煤层气产出效益的解决思路。结果表明利用有界DEA煤层气经济评价模型进行经济评价,不但克服了传统评价方法指标权重需人为干预的缺点,而且提供了提高效率的具体参数量化标准。
(3)利用区间DEA模型结合蒙特卡罗解法,建立了区间DEA煤层气经济评价不确定性分析方法,实现了煤层气经济评价的不确定性分析。确立了优选水平井方案的有界变量的有效区间,限定了煤层气开发的优选范围。
The exploration and development of coalbed methane(CBM) have important strategic significances, on one hand it improves China's energy structure and forms a new clean energy industry;On the other hand the exploration of CBM prevents coal mine gas accidents, improves coal mine's safety production condition, reduces gas emission which causes the strong greenhouse effect and protects the global environment. Although of so many benefits, CBM exploration is an industry of high input, high risk and high technology under the current conditions. For reducing the risk, raising reservoir implement efficency and getting the best invest benifits, CBM economical evaluation theories and technologies need to be researched.
Based on Project Economics, Technology Economics, Economic Evaluation of Mine, The CBM exploration procedures and difficulties are analyzed firstly.Then the factors and its models affecting CBM project value are defined.
However the above parameters distribution characters and change rules are important for CBM economic evaluation model creation by affecting CBM economic evaluation index and DEA model choosing. So some quantity models of the rules from main parameters change are created including the production, reservior parameters, and economic parameters. And the results show that the permeability and CBM price are main effective factors of projects value.
Based on above parameters and its functions, the CBM economical economic index system is created. For solving the problem of the parameters often express using interval, Bounded DEA model for CBM economic evaluation is created by combining BNDDEA(Bounded DEA) model and CBM economic evaluation index system. Moreover using this model and some examples, the difference between foreign and domestic CBM plan is founded. And the dfifference tell us which factors are main elements for increasing CBM Production of Panzhuang, so the way for raising production benefits of Panzhuange is proposed.
The CBM economic evaluation BNDDEA model only concerns about the whole decision making units.However risk evaluation needs to discove the risk at different points in interval.So it is difficult to study the insides of DMU parameters.For this reason, the method of interval DEA combining montecalo simulation is proposed for determining the effency interval of CBM horizontal well exploration.As a result, the problem of defining CBM exploration optimum scope by DEA model is solved.
Finally, with an example of Panzhuang, the production curves of three styles different distance vertical well nets and four styles different length horizontal wells are simulated.In addition the best vertical well plan and horizontal plan are choosen.By comparision of vertical well plan’s and horizontal plan’s economic parameters,the horizontal well plan is selected. Moreover to discover the uncertainty of horizontal well plan, coefficient of variations and efficency intervals of horizontal well are difined by stastical analysis method and interval DEA-Montecarlo method respectively.
The dissertation innovations are as follows.
(1)The CBM production curve is analyzied by nolinear theory,and the results show the CBM production curve is long term correlated and chaostic.
(2)Using the new created CBM economic evaluation model based on BNDDEA, the difference between foreign and domestic CBM plans is founded. And the dfifference tell us which factors are main elements for increasing CBM Production of Panzhuang, so the way for raising production benefits of Panzhuange is proposed.The results show this method is avoiding human intervention of index weight and give quantity parameters description of increasing CBM projets benefit.
(3)Combing interval DEA and montecarlo method,the created uncertainty analysis method of CBM economic evaluation based on interval DEA is used to definite the effency interval of selected horizontal well plan bounded parameters.And the optimum selecting exploration scope is determined.
引文
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