电力市场环境下水库发电调度预警决策系统研究
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摘要
我国水能资源蕴藏丰富,优先发展水电是我国最重要的能源与环境战略。水电能源的开发和利用对于发展国民经济提高人民生活水平具有巨大的推动作用。随着“厂网分开,竞价上网”,我国电力市场正在逐步建立,在肯定水电开发的同时,必须认识到市场环境下水电的发展还缺乏稳定有效地运行机制,在高效节能方面还有很长的路要走。因此,开展市场环境下水库发电优化调度研究,进一步完善理论,研究新方法和新技术具有重要的应用和学术价值。
本文首先阐述了市场环境下水电站优化运行的研究背景和国内外研究现状,结合电力市场改革,制定了水库发电调度操作规线和水电站年发电计划,研究了水电站合约电量的确定和月内分解,在此基础上,引入预警机制对市场环境下水电站年合约电量能否完成和完成程度以及应变措施展开研究和探讨,主要研究内容包括：
(1)水库发电调度操作规线的制定。以发电效益最大为目标函数应用随机动态规划模型计算结果,制定了清江隔河岩水库发调度操作规线,并应用该操作规线进行了长系列仿真模拟计算,与动态规划计算结果进行了对比分析,表明该操作规线具有合理性与可靠性。
(2)年发电计划的制定。通过对隔河岩水电站长系列模拟发电调度的计算,基于水电站历史发电量统计特征,确定了该水电站年度合约电量并对年度合约电量进行了月内分解,在此基础上,以电站发电效益最大为目标,制定了水电站年发电计划。
(3)建立发电调度预警决策系统。为保证水电站合约电量按时完成、避免受到电网的经济制裁,基于水库发电调度操作规线和水电站年发电计划制定的基础上,引入预警机制,结合水库现状水势,考虑未来水情针对月合约电量的完成程度在不同水文情势下进行预警分析,建立了水库发电调度预警决策系统,期望能提早预知合约电量完成程度,并制定了相对应的排警措施,对决策者在市场环境下水库实际运行以及水库中长期调度具有一定的参考价值,同时,在调度决策过程中,体现了决策者的不同利益趋势和风险偏好。
Hydropower resources is very rich in our country, giving priority to the development of hydropower is China's most important energy and environmental strategy. The utilization and development of water resources have a huge role to the development of the national economy and improving the people's living standards. With the "factory nets separate, bidding for access", our country's electric power market is gradually established. At the time of hydropower is developing, we must recognize that electric power market is lack of stable hydropower effectively in energy efficient operating mechanism, there's a long way to go. Therefore, launching research of reservoir power optimization scheduling under the background of electric power market, further perfecting theory and researching the new methods and new technology have important applications and academic value.
This paper firstly expounded the station of hydropower optimum operation under the market environment and the background and the domestic and foreign research present situation, then union power market reforms, formulated the reservoir power dispatching operation rules line and hydropower station was studied in electricity generation plan, determination of hydropower electricity and months contract, on the basis of decomposition, introducing the warning mechanism of market environment in contract if counld complete power hydropower and complete degree and launched research and discussion of strain measures, made the following main research results:
(1) Reservoir power dispatching operation rules formulated line. With the most power benefit as the objective function by applying stochastic dynamic programming model calculation results, formulated the geheyan reservoir hair, and scheduling operating rules line, using this operation rules line conducted a long series of simulation calculation, Comparison analysis are made with the calculated results of dynamic programming, show that the operating rules line has reasonableness and reliability.
(2)Years generation plan. Based on simulated hydropower adsense series elevates the calculation of generating scheduling based on hydropower station capacity, statistical characteristic, history to determine the annual contract of hydropower electricity the power within the annual contract, on the basis of decomposition, with the objective of maximizing benefits and the particle swarm algorithm, formulate the hydropower years generating plan.
(3)Establish power dispatching warning decision system. To ensure the hydropower station power be finished, avoid economic sanctions by grid, based on the reservoir scheduling operating rules line and hydropower power plans, and introducing early warning mechanism, combining of the present situation, considering the future water for months, warning analysis was carried out under the different degree of contract is completed in hydrological, established the reservoir power dispatching warning decision system, Expect to be able to early predict power complete degree, and contract formulated the corresponding measures, it have a certain reference value to policymakers in actual operation and reservoir reservoir long-term scheduling, at the same time, in the process of dispatching decision-making, reflected the decision maker's preferences trend and risk of different interests.
本文首先阐述了市场环境下水电站优化运行的研究背景和国内外研究现状,结合电力市场改革,制定了水库发电调度操作规线和水电站年发电计划,研究了水电站合约电量的确定和月内分解,在此基础上,引入预警机制对市场环境下水电站年合约电量能否完成和完成程度以及应变措施展开研究和探讨,主要研究内容包括：
(1)水库发电调度操作规线的制定。以发电效益最大为目标函数应用随机动态规划模型计算结果,制定了清江隔河岩水库发调度操作规线,并应用该操作规线进行了长系列仿真模拟计算,与动态规划计算结果进行了对比分析,表明该操作规线具有合理性与可靠性。
(2)年发电计划的制定。通过对隔河岩水电站长系列模拟发电调度的计算,基于水电站历史发电量统计特征,确定了该水电站年度合约电量并对年度合约电量进行了月内分解,在此基础上,以电站发电效益最大为目标,制定了水电站年发电计划。
(3)建立发电调度预警决策系统。为保证水电站合约电量按时完成、避免受到电网的经济制裁,基于水库发电调度操作规线和水电站年发电计划制定的基础上,引入预警机制,结合水库现状水势,考虑未来水情针对月合约电量的完成程度在不同水文情势下进行预警分析,建立了水库发电调度预警决策系统,期望能提早预知合约电量完成程度,并制定了相对应的排警措施,对决策者在市场环境下水库实际运行以及水库中长期调度具有一定的参考价值,同时,在调度决策过程中,体现了决策者的不同利益趋势和风险偏好。
Hydropower resources is very rich in our country, giving priority to the development of hydropower is China's most important energy and environmental strategy. The utilization and development of water resources have a huge role to the development of the national economy and improving the people's living standards. With the "factory nets separate, bidding for access", our country's electric power market is gradually established. At the time of hydropower is developing, we must recognize that electric power market is lack of stable hydropower effectively in energy efficient operating mechanism, there's a long way to go. Therefore, launching research of reservoir power optimization scheduling under the background of electric power market, further perfecting theory and researching the new methods and new technology have important applications and academic value.
This paper firstly expounded the station of hydropower optimum operation under the market environment and the background and the domestic and foreign research present situation, then union power market reforms, formulated the reservoir power dispatching operation rules line and hydropower station was studied in electricity generation plan, determination of hydropower electricity and months contract, on the basis of decomposition, introducing the warning mechanism of market environment in contract if counld complete power hydropower and complete degree and launched research and discussion of strain measures, made the following main research results:
(1) Reservoir power dispatching operation rules formulated line. With the most power benefit as the objective function by applying stochastic dynamic programming model calculation results, formulated the geheyan reservoir hair, and scheduling operating rules line, using this operation rules line conducted a long series of simulation calculation, Comparison analysis are made with the calculated results of dynamic programming, show that the operating rules line has reasonableness and reliability.
(2)Years generation plan. Based on simulated hydropower adsense series elevates the calculation of generating scheduling based on hydropower station capacity, statistical characteristic, history to determine the annual contract of hydropower electricity the power within the annual contract, on the basis of decomposition, with the objective of maximizing benefits and the particle swarm algorithm, formulate the hydropower years generating plan.
(3)Establish power dispatching warning decision system. To ensure the hydropower station power be finished, avoid economic sanctions by grid, based on the reservoir scheduling operating rules line and hydropower power plans, and introducing early warning mechanism, combining of the present situation, considering the future water for months, warning analysis was carried out under the different degree of contract is completed in hydrological, established the reservoir power dispatching warning decision system, Expect to be able to early predict power complete degree, and contract formulated the corresponding measures, it have a certain reference value to policymakers in actual operation and reservoir reservoir long-term scheduling, at the same time, in the process of dispatching decision-making, reflected the decision maker's preferences trend and risk of different interests.
引文
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[3]中投顾问.2010-2015年中国水电行业投资分析及前景预测报告[EB].2010http://www.ocn.com.cn/reports/2006062shuidian.htm
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[6]潘理中,苗孝芳.水电站水库优化调度研究的若干进展[J].水文,1999,6：37-40
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