大城市商业区停车时段长度选择模型研究
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摘要
停车问题是困扰国内外诸多大城市的难题，为了解决这一难题人们试用了各种方法。这些方法，可分为三类：其一是扩大停车设施的供给；其二是进行交通需求管理；其三是改善现有设施的利用效率。在现阶段我国的国情决定了进行交通需求管理为时尚早，应该以扩大停车设施的供给为主。但建设充足的停车设施需要政府和社会投入大量的资金，是一个缓慢渐进的过程。而改善现有设施的利用效率则是一种快速有效的方法，可以使停车难的状况得到缓解。在以往的研究中人们研究了停车场空间利用不均衡的现象，在本次研究中将着重研究停车场时间上周转率低的问题。研究影响停车周转率的各种停车行为因素。
本文首先总结了国内外对停车行为的相关研究，其次分析了影响停车行为的相关因素。再次对各种影响因素进行了统计分析，筛选出对停车者停车时段长度选择行为影响较大的几个影响因素作为建立停车时段长度选择模型的变量。接着在分析了logit模型和probit模型的优缺点后，决定选用logit模型作为停车场选择模型。然后分平日和假日分别建立了停车时段长度选择模型，并对模型进行了分析和检验。
Parking is a big question which puzzles many big cities. In order to slove it, lots of methods have been put forward and implemented. These methods can be divided into three kinds. The first one is to increase the providing of parking facilities, the scond one is traffic damand management and the last one is to improve the efficiency of parking facilities. At present, it's too early to implement traffic damand management due to our countries status, but building abundant parking facilities needs lots of money and can't slove the problem quickly, while improve the efficiency of parking facilities is a quick and effective method.In the past study,people have study the disproportion of space in the useage of parking lots,in my study I have study the reason of low velocity and the factors which have effect the velocity.
This paper firstly summarizes the studies about parking behavior at home and abroad, analyzes the basic elements influencing parking bahavior, and introduces the method and the conclusions of a parking behavior survery conducted at Xidan area. After compairing the characters of logit model and probit model, this paper chooses logit model as the parking choice model. Then, this paper sets up two parking duration choice model based on weekday's data and weekend's data respectively, and analyzes and tests the models.
本文首先总结了国内外对停车行为的相关研究，其次分析了影响停车行为的相关因素。再次对各种影响因素进行了统计分析，筛选出对停车者停车时段长度选择行为影响较大的几个影响因素作为建立停车时段长度选择模型的变量。接着在分析了logit模型和probit模型的优缺点后，决定选用logit模型作为停车场选择模型。然后分平日和假日分别建立了停车时段长度选择模型，并对模型进行了分析和检验。
Parking is a big question which puzzles many big cities. In order to slove it, lots of methods have been put forward and implemented. These methods can be divided into three kinds. The first one is to increase the providing of parking facilities, the scond one is traffic damand management and the last one is to improve the efficiency of parking facilities. At present, it's too early to implement traffic damand management due to our countries status, but building abundant parking facilities needs lots of money and can't slove the problem quickly, while improve the efficiency of parking facilities is a quick and effective method.In the past study,people have study the disproportion of space in the useage of parking lots,in my study I have study the reason of low velocity and the factors which have effect the velocity.
This paper firstly summarizes the studies about parking behavior at home and abroad, analyzes the basic elements influencing parking bahavior, and introduces the method and the conclusions of a parking behavior survery conducted at Xidan area. After compairing the characters of logit model and probit model, this paper chooses logit model as the parking choice model. Then, this paper sets up two parking duration choice model based on weekday's data and weekend's data respectively, and analyzes and tests the models.
引文
[1] Yoram Shiftan and Rachel Burd-Eden, Modeling the Response to parking Policy July 2000;
[2] Mildner, Gerard C.S., Strathman, James G. | Bianco, Martha J., Parking policies and commuting behavioro Source: Transportation Quarterly v 51 n 1 Winter 1997 Eno Foundation for Transportation Inc p 111-125 0278-9434, In English 7 Refs.
[3] 室町泰德、原田昇、吉田朗，驻车需要时间变动考虑驻车埸选択关研究，1991年度第26回日本都市计画学会学术研究论文集。
[4] 室町泰德、原田昇、吉田朗，交通量均衡配分时间变动考虑驻车埸选択关研究，1991年度第26回日本都市计画学会学术研究论文集。
[5] Tsukaguchi, Hiroshi,Nishiumi, Shigehiro, Study on a parking management system based on an analysis of parking location choice behavior, Source: Doboku Gakkai Rombun-Hokokushu/Proceedings of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers 500 pt 4-25 Oct 1994 Japan. Soc of Civil Engineers p31-39 0289-7806, In Japanese 7 Refs.
[6] 吴涛，城市停车设施的性质与分类探讨，城市研究，1999年第4期(总第77期)。
[7] 吴涛，晏克非，停车行为研究，‘99上海国际城市交通学术研讨会论文选，同济大学道路与交通工程系，上海 200092。
[8] 安实，王健，潘海燕，停车行为分析和建模，哈尔滨工业大学交通工程研究中心，哈尔滨工业大学学报(新增序列)2001年第8卷第2期,2001年6月，p 120-124。
[9] 董苏华，章超汉，部分国家和地区停车问题研究，城市交通，1999年第4期
[10] 关宏志，任军，日本停车政策的变化历程及启示，面向二十一世纪的城市交通管理—ITS在交通管理中的应用，第七届多国城市交通学术会议论文集，团结出版社，2001．10，372—378。
[11] 关宏志，中心商业区停车设施开发中的问题及其解决方法，城市规划，2000年第24卷第12期。
[12] 关宏志，任军和姚胜永，发达国家机动化早中期的城市停车对策，城市规划，2002年第26卷第10期。
[13] 关宏志，任军，日本停车政策的变化历程及启示，面向二十一世纪
的城市交通管理—ITS在交通管理中的应用，第七届多国城市交通学术会议论文集，团结出版社，2001．10，372—378。
[14] 关宏志，刘兰辉，大城市商业区停车行为调查及初步分析——以北京市西单地区为例，北京工业大学学报，2003年01期。
[15] 关宏志，刘兰辉，大城市商业区停车行为模型——以北京西单地区为例，土木工程学报，2003年01期。
[16] 关宏志，刘兰辉，廖明军，停车诱导系统的规划与评价研究，公路交通科技，2003年第2期。
[17] 李旭宏等，《道路交通规划》，东南大学出版社，1997年10月第一版。
[18] 建设省都市局都市交通调查室监修．驻车埸案内计画研究会编著．驻车场案内计画整备考方一．大成出版社．1991年．
[19] 徐亚国，王晓东．广州市停车诱导系统实施方案研究．面向二十一世纪——发展中国家交通问题．中国民族摄影艺术出版社．99～108．1999．
[20] L. Horst, P. Vogel. Das Hamburger Parkleitsystem Konzept- Ausführung-Erfahnmgen. Straβenverkehrstechnik-Heft 5/1985.
[21] 赵艳莉．德国科隆市停车诱导系统．城市交通，2002年第三期。
[22] 刘灿齐，现代交通规划学，人民交通出版社：129～202。
[23] 陆璇，应用统计，清华大学出版社，2001。
[24] 张文彤，SPSS11统计分析教程，北京希望电子出版社，2002。
[25] 余建英、何旭宏，数据统计分析与SPSS应用，人民邮电出版社，2003。
[26] 王庆石、卢兴普，统计学案例教材，东北财经大学出版社，2001。
[27] 王济川、郭志刚，Logistic回归模型—方法与应用，高等教育出版社，2001。
[28] 王苏斌、郑海涛、邵谦谦，SPSS统计分析，机械工业出版社，2003。
[29] 阮桂海，SPSS实用教程，电子工业出版社，2000。
[30] 刘兰辉，大城市商业区停车行为研究，北京工业大学硕士论文，2003。
[31] Kardi TEKNOMO,Kazunori HOKAO ,Parking Behavior in Central Business District A Study Case of Surabaya, INDONESIA,EASTS journal,Vol.2no2,pp.551-570,1997
[32] Ben Akiva, M. and S. Lerman. Discrete choice analysis. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 985
[33] Bates J.J. and M.A. Bradley. The CLAMP parking policy analysis model. Traff. Eng. and Control, Vol.27, 1986, pp. 410-411.
[34] Polak, J., Axhausen K.W. and T. Errigton. The application of the CLAMP to the analysis of parking policy in Birmingham city centre. Proc. of the 18th PTRC summer annual meeting. Brighton, UK, 1990
[35] Bifulco, G.N. A stochastic user equilibrium assignment model for the
evaluation of parking policies. European Journal of Operational Research,Vol. 71, 1993, pp. 269-287
[36] Cascetta, E. Transportation Systems Engineering: Theory and Methods. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, The Netherlands 2001
[37] Nour Eldin, M.S., El-Reedy T.Y. and H.K. Ismail. A combined parking and traffic assignment model. Traff. Eng. and Contr., Vol. 10, 1981,pp.524-530.
[38] Polak, J. and P. Vythoulkas. An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art in the Modelling of Parking Behaviour. Report n. 752, TRL, Oxford, UK, 1993
[39] Perincherry, V., S. Kikuchi, and M. Dell'Orco. Use of possibility theory when dealing with uncertainty in modelling choice. In Proc. of the 8th Meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation, Rome. Italy, 2000
[40] Henn V. Fuzzy route choice model for traffic assignment. Fuzzy Set and Systems, Vol. 116, 2000, pp.77-101
[41] Akiyama, T. and T. Kawahara. Traffic assignment model with fuzzy travel time information. In Proc.of the 9th Mini-EURO Conference "Fuzzy sets in Traffic and Transport Systems", Budva, Yugoslavia, 1997
[42] Srinivas Peeta and Jeong W. Yu. A data-consistent fuzzy approach for on-line driver behavior under information provision. In 81st Transportation Research Board annual meeting, (CD-ROM), Washington D.C, January 2002.
[43] Dubois, D. and H. Prade. The three semantics of fuzzy sets. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 90, 1997, pp. 141-150
[43] Henn, V. What is the meaning of fuzzy costs in fuzzy traffic assignment models? In Proceedings of the 13th Mini-EURO conference "Handling Uncertainty in the Analysis of Traffic and Transportation Systems", Bari,Italy.2002
[44] Zadeh, L. A. Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 1, 1978, pp.3-28.
[45]. Klir, G. J. and T. A.Folger. Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty and Information. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,New Jersey, 1988
[46] Mauch, M., and B. D. Taylor. Gender, Race, and Travel behavior: Analysis of Household-serving Travel and Commuting in San Francisco Bay Area. In Transportation Research Record 1607, TRB, National Research council, Washington, D. C., 1997, pp. 47-153.
[47] Bianco, M.J., Ducker, K., Strathman, J., 1997. Parking Strategies to Attract Auto Users to Transit. Discussion Paper 95-5, The Center for Urban Studies, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, January.
[48] Lennie, O.S., Smith, R.A., 1986. Practicalities of CBD fringe area car
parking policy. In: Proceedings of the 11th Australian Transport Research Forum, vol. 1, Darwin, pp. 141±165.
[49] Nathan, V.P.R., Welsh, K., 1997. A Review of Parking Control Policies and Guidelines as Applied to the City of Sydney, January.
[50] Verhoe., E., Nijkamp, P., Rietveld, P., 1995. The economics of regulatory parking policies: the (im)possibilities of parking policies in trac regulation. Transportation Research A 29 (2), 141±156.
[51] Young, W., Thompson, R.G., Taylor, M.A.P., 1991. A review of urban parking models. Transport Reviews 11 (1),63±84.
[52] Polak, J.W., Axhausen, K.W., 1994. Measuring the e.ectiveness of parking guidance systems: a case study of Frankfurt/main, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Advanced Technologies in Transportation and Trac Management, Centre for Transportation Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, pp. 343±350.
[53] 赤松宏和·松下直哉·中川羲英(2002)：「步行者回游状况驻车埸势圈关研究～高崎市事例」土木计画学研究·讲演集 26
[54] 木下瑞夫·牧村和彦·山田春利·浅野光行(2001)：「回游行动地方都市都心步行者针画关一考察」日本都市计画学会 Vol．50／No．3，pp86-95
[55] 内田贤悦·加贺屋诚一·角田乔生·荻原亨(2002)：「驻车埸配置步行回游效果关研究」土木学会第57回年次学术讲演会Ⅳ-350，pp699-700
[2] Mildner, Gerard C.S., Strathman, James G. | Bianco, Martha J., Parking policies and commuting behavioro Source: Transportation Quarterly v 51 n 1 Winter 1997 Eno Foundation for Transportation Inc p 111-125 0278-9434, In English 7 Refs.
[3] 室町泰德、原田昇、吉田朗，驻车需要时间变动考虑驻车埸选択关研究，1991年度第26回日本都市计画学会学术研究论文集。
[4] 室町泰德、原田昇、吉田朗，交通量均衡配分时间变动考虑驻车埸选択关研究，1991年度第26回日本都市计画学会学术研究论文集。
[5] Tsukaguchi, Hiroshi,Nishiumi, Shigehiro, Study on a parking management system based on an analysis of parking location choice behavior, Source: Doboku Gakkai Rombun-Hokokushu/Proceedings of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers 500 pt 4-25 Oct 1994 Japan. Soc of Civil Engineers p31-39 0289-7806, In Japanese 7 Refs.
[6] 吴涛，城市停车设施的性质与分类探讨，城市研究，1999年第4期(总第77期)。
[7] 吴涛，晏克非，停车行为研究，‘99上海国际城市交通学术研讨会论文选，同济大学道路与交通工程系，上海 200092。
[8] 安实，王健，潘海燕，停车行为分析和建模，哈尔滨工业大学交通工程研究中心，哈尔滨工业大学学报(新增序列)2001年第8卷第2期,2001年6月，p 120-124。
[9] 董苏华，章超汉，部分国家和地区停车问题研究，城市交通，1999年第4期
[10] 关宏志，任军，日本停车政策的变化历程及启示，面向二十一世纪的城市交通管理—ITS在交通管理中的应用，第七届多国城市交通学术会议论文集，团结出版社，2001．10，372—378。
[11] 关宏志，中心商业区停车设施开发中的问题及其解决方法，城市规划，2000年第24卷第12期。
[12] 关宏志，任军和姚胜永，发达国家机动化早中期的城市停车对策，城市规划，2002年第26卷第10期。
[13] 关宏志，任军，日本停车政策的变化历程及启示，面向二十一世纪
的城市交通管理—ITS在交通管理中的应用，第七届多国城市交通学术会议论文集，团结出版社，2001．10，372—378。
[14] 关宏志，刘兰辉，大城市商业区停车行为调查及初步分析——以北京市西单地区为例，北京工业大学学报，2003年01期。
[15] 关宏志，刘兰辉，大城市商业区停车行为模型——以北京西单地区为例，土木工程学报，2003年01期。
[16] 关宏志，刘兰辉，廖明军，停车诱导系统的规划与评价研究，公路交通科技，2003年第2期。
[17] 李旭宏等，《道路交通规划》，东南大学出版社，1997年10月第一版。
[18] 建设省都市局都市交通调查室监修．驻车埸案内计画研究会编著．驻车场案内计画整备考方一．大成出版社．1991年．
[19] 徐亚国，王晓东．广州市停车诱导系统实施方案研究．面向二十一世纪——发展中国家交通问题．中国民族摄影艺术出版社．99～108．1999．
[20] L. Horst, P. Vogel. Das Hamburger Parkleitsystem Konzept- Ausführung-Erfahnmgen. Straβenverkehrstechnik-Heft 5/1985.
[21] 赵艳莉．德国科隆市停车诱导系统．城市交通，2002年第三期。
[22] 刘灿齐，现代交通规划学，人民交通出版社：129～202。
[23] 陆璇，应用统计，清华大学出版社，2001。
[24] 张文彤，SPSS11统计分析教程，北京希望电子出版社，2002。
[25] 余建英、何旭宏，数据统计分析与SPSS应用，人民邮电出版社，2003。
[26] 王庆石、卢兴普，统计学案例教材，东北财经大学出版社，2001。
[27] 王济川、郭志刚，Logistic回归模型—方法与应用，高等教育出版社，2001。
[28] 王苏斌、郑海涛、邵谦谦，SPSS统计分析，机械工业出版社，2003。
[29] 阮桂海，SPSS实用教程，电子工业出版社，2000。
[30] 刘兰辉，大城市商业区停车行为研究，北京工业大学硕士论文，2003。
[31] Kardi TEKNOMO,Kazunori HOKAO ,Parking Behavior in Central Business District A Study Case of Surabaya, INDONESIA,EASTS journal,Vol.2no2,pp.551-570,1997
[32] Ben Akiva, M. and S. Lerman. Discrete choice analysis. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 985
[33] Bates J.J. and M.A. Bradley. The CLAMP parking policy analysis model. Traff. Eng. and Control, Vol.27, 1986, pp. 410-411.
[34] Polak, J., Axhausen K.W. and T. Errigton. The application of the CLAMP to the analysis of parking policy in Birmingham city centre. Proc. of the 18th PTRC summer annual meeting. Brighton, UK, 1990
[35] Bifulco, G.N. A stochastic user equilibrium assignment model for the
evaluation of parking policies. European Journal of Operational Research,Vol. 71, 1993, pp. 269-287
[36] Cascetta, E. Transportation Systems Engineering: Theory and Methods. Kluwer Academic Publisher, Dordrecht, The Netherlands 2001
[37] Nour Eldin, M.S., El-Reedy T.Y. and H.K. Ismail. A combined parking and traffic assignment model. Traff. Eng. and Contr., Vol. 10, 1981,pp.524-530.
[38] Polak, J. and P. Vythoulkas. An Assessment of the State-of-the-Art in the Modelling of Parking Behaviour. Report n. 752, TRL, Oxford, UK, 1993
[39] Perincherry, V., S. Kikuchi, and M. Dell'Orco. Use of possibility theory when dealing with uncertainty in modelling choice. In Proc. of the 8th Meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation, Rome. Italy, 2000
[40] Henn V. Fuzzy route choice model for traffic assignment. Fuzzy Set and Systems, Vol. 116, 2000, pp.77-101
[41] Akiyama, T. and T. Kawahara. Traffic assignment model with fuzzy travel time information. In Proc.of the 9th Mini-EURO Conference "Fuzzy sets in Traffic and Transport Systems", Budva, Yugoslavia, 1997
[42] Srinivas Peeta and Jeong W. Yu. A data-consistent fuzzy approach for on-line driver behavior under information provision. In 81st Transportation Research Board annual meeting, (CD-ROM), Washington D.C, January 2002.
[43] Dubois, D. and H. Prade. The three semantics of fuzzy sets. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 90, 1997, pp. 141-150
[43] Henn, V. What is the meaning of fuzzy costs in fuzzy traffic assignment models? In Proceedings of the 13th Mini-EURO conference "Handling Uncertainty in the Analysis of Traffic and Transportation Systems", Bari,Italy.2002
[44] Zadeh, L. A. Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Vol. 1, 1978, pp.3-28.
[45]. Klir, G. J. and T. A.Folger. Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty and Information. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs,New Jersey, 1988
[46] Mauch, M., and B. D. Taylor. Gender, Race, and Travel behavior: Analysis of Household-serving Travel and Commuting in San Francisco Bay Area. In Transportation Research Record 1607, TRB, National Research council, Washington, D. C., 1997, pp. 47-153.
[47] Bianco, M.J., Ducker, K., Strathman, J., 1997. Parking Strategies to Attract Auto Users to Transit. Discussion Paper 95-5, The Center for Urban Studies, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, January.
[48] Lennie, O.S., Smith, R.A., 1986. Practicalities of CBD fringe area car
parking policy. In: Proceedings of the 11th Australian Transport Research Forum, vol. 1, Darwin, pp. 141±165.
[49] Nathan, V.P.R., Welsh, K., 1997. A Review of Parking Control Policies and Guidelines as Applied to the City of Sydney, January.
[50] Verhoe., E., Nijkamp, P., Rietveld, P., 1995. The economics of regulatory parking policies: the (im)possibilities of parking policies in trac regulation. Transportation Research A 29 (2), 141±156.
[51] Young, W., Thompson, R.G., Taylor, M.A.P., 1991. A review of urban parking models. Transport Reviews 11 (1),63±84.
[52] Polak, J.W., Axhausen, K.W., 1994. Measuring the e.ectiveness of parking guidance systems: a case study of Frankfurt/main, in: Proceedings of the International Conference on Advanced Technologies in Transportation and Trac Management, Centre for Transportation Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, pp. 343±350.
[53] 赤松宏和·松下直哉·中川羲英(2002)：「步行者回游状况驻车埸势圈关研究～高崎市事例」土木计画学研究·讲演集 26
[54] 木下瑞夫·牧村和彦·山田春利·浅野光行(2001)：「回游行动地方都市都心步行者针画关一考察」日本都市计画学会 Vol．50／No．3，pp86-95
[55] 内田贤悦·加贺屋诚一·角田乔生·荻原亨(2002)：「驻车埸配置步行回游效果关研究」土木学会第57回年次学术讲演会Ⅳ-350，pp699-700